29 November 2019

General election key seat guide The South of

his is the third in a series of Headland’s Key Seat 2019 General Election Guides. This election will be a complex race with the different voter dynamics in so many different T constituencies. Based on an assessment of election history, demographics and an in-depth knowledge of local areas, we will lay out which seats are going to be the most interesting and tightly fought during this election.

This edition in our series focuses on the South of England – looking at , the South East and the South West regions.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • The Labour heartland of London and Conservative heartland of the South East will be unlikely to see huge changes, but electoral battles in pockets of each region could end up being decisive.

• The Liberal Democrats will have their best chance to build on their perceived resurgence by making gains in the South East amongst middle-class Remain voters. They will also be looking to reassert themselves in their formal heartlands of the West Country.

• The Party are unlikely to play much of a role here, given their lack of support in London and not standing in any Conservative seats.

Headland briefing | general election key seat guide – The South of England | 1 LONDON The home of Labour now, the Party holds over two thirds of the seats and continues to benefit from the city becoming demographically ‘more Labour’ – an increasing BAME population, a vote that continues to stay younger than the rest of the country, and dominance at local political levels. That said, this is the city that was mayor of for eight years, and though his personal brand has changed since then, the Conservatives will be hoping they can reignite the ‘Heineken politician’ to win them seats, particularly in outer London boroughs.

RICHMOND PARK Incumbent: Zac Goldsmith (Conservative) Majority: 45 ‘Maverick’ Conservative MP and former London mayoral candidate Zac Goldsmith clawed this seat back after losing it in a by-election he caused over his opposition to Heathrow expansion. Since then, he has taken a role in Boris Johnson’s government and the Conservative manifesto has not committed to halt the expansion which means this middle-class, professional constituency is in serious danger from the Liberal Democrats. Headland prediction: LIBERAL DEMOCRAT GAIN

FINCHLEY AND GOLDERS GREEN Incumbent: Mike Freer (Conservative) Majority: 1,657 This diverse North London suburban seat is the home of Britain’s largest Jewish population. Ordinarily a Labour/Conservative marginal, the crisis of anti- Semitism in the Labour Party has made it almost certain they have no chance this time. However, the decision by Labour-turned-Liberal Democrat MP , who is herself Jewish and left Labour over anti-Semitism, to stand has made this a very interesting race. The constituency voted heavily to Remain (70%) and so a popular young Jewish candidate coupled with a pro-EU message means this seat is likely to change hands. Headland prediction: LIBERAL DEMOCRAT GAIN

CHINGFORD AND WOODFORD GREEN Incumbent: (Conservative) Majority: 2,438 The home of former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith has seen significant demographic change in recent years, with the population becoming younger and more ethnically diverse, leading Labour to believe they have a chance of this scalp. Their energetic candidate, Faiza Shaheen, is attracting huge numbers of activists and creating a lot of press coverage. However, there is some belief inside Labour that the seat simply hasn’t changed enough yet and still has an inbuilt Conservative majority, meaning no amount of canvassing or leafletting could win it for them. Headland prediction: CONSERVATIVE HOLD

Headland briefing | general election key seat guide – The South of England | 2 CITIES OF LONDON AND Incumbent: Mark Field (Conservative, standing down) Majority: 3,148 This has only ever been a Conservative seat, but in 2017 Labour reduced the majority to 3,000 putting it on their target list. Since then, Labour’s obfuscatory Brexit position, coupled with their candidate having to stand down over accusations of inappropriate behaviour, means the main contenders have become the Liberal Democrats. This was only made clearer when former Labour highflyer announced he would be the Liberal Democrat candidate, and with sitting Conservative MP Mark Field standing down, this seat really is up for grabs. This ‘Remain’ heartland has never had a Liberal Democrat councillor let alone seen them challenge for Parliament so winning this seat would be a real coup. Headland prediction: LIBERAL DEMOCRAT GAIN

DAGENHAM AND RAINHAM Incumbent: Jon Cruddas (Labour) Majority: 4,652 This East London seat has been considered a Labour heartland for decades. The home of Ford motors in the UK and famous for the Ford sewing machinists’ strike which ultimately resulted in the Equal Pay Act, it is a cultural and electoral centre for the British labour movement. Like many Labour heartlands, Brexit has turned the seat on its head and though Labour hung on with a comfortable majority in 2017, the Conservatives are putting considerable resource into the seat to try and overturn Labour’s dominance in a seat that voted about 70% Leave. Headland prediction: LABOUR HOLD

THE SOUTH EAST Typically the heartland of the Conservative Party – large rural constituencies, leafy market towns and the biggest region in terms of seats in the UK – the South East has been home to more Conservative prime ministers and cabinet members over the last decade than any other. However, it is not all ‘True Blue’. There are pockets of this region that are tightly fought contests and the impact of the EU referendum has threatened to upend the Conservative dominance as many Remain-voting liberal professionals, particularly in the London commuter belt, are looking for a new home.

SOUTHAMPTON, ITCHEN Incumbent: Royston Smith (Conservative) Majority: 31 , Itchen is one of the most marginal constituencies in the country and is currently represented by controversial former council leader Royston Smith. A former Eurosceptic ‘’ member, Smith became infamous during the coalition years for his pursuance of austerity measures within the council. The constituency, which had been a safe Labour seat in 2005, has seen a big shift in support amongst much of the swing voting lower-middle class families from Labour to Conservative, resulting in Labour just holding on in 2010 and losing the seat in 2015. Smith’s pro-Brexit stance plays well with many of Labour’s former vote and despite the marginality of the seat, he is likely to hold it. Headland prediction: CONSERVATIVE HOLD

Headland briefing | general election key seat guide – The South of England | 3 Incumbent: (Labour) Majority: 187 Canterbury was the shock result of the 2017 election – a seat that had been a Conservative fortress since the 19th Century which swung dramatically to Labour. Many theories have been put forward as to what happened but a combination of the Remain vote coalescing around Labour, the student population voting Labour and a changing demographic (with Labour supporters retiring to the constituency from South East London suburbs) meant Rosie Duffield took the seat. There is now a huge battle on with the Liberal Democrats pulling out to support Rosie. There will be a hope for the Remain and Labour side that 2017 can repeat itself. However, a more confident Prime Minister running a campaign that is yet to come unstuck means the Conservatives are looking to take back a seat which most would view as ‘True Blue’. Headland prediction: CONSERVATIVE GAIN

HASTINGS AND RYE Incumbent: Amber Rudd (Conservative, standing down) Majority: 346 Hastings and Rye is one of the most difficult seats to call in this election. Much like lots of the south coast the constituency is becoming less ‘Tory’ – with the incumbent standing down, the seat being incredibly marginal and demographic change all at play. The Conservatives will be hoping that being the only pro-Brexit party will get them over the line. However, if Labour can stop the Liberal Democrats from eating into their vote, it could be one of the only seats they gain in this election. Headland prediction: LABOUR GAIN

READING EAST Incumbent: (Labour) Majority: 3,749 This constituency, which hadn’t been won by Labour since the Blair heyday of 2001, went rather surprisingly back to them in 2017. However, as further evidence to support Labour benefitting from the ‘Youthquake’ of 2017, Reading East includes almost all the University of Reading which undoubtedly gave Labour the edge they needed. However, a more noticeable split in the ‘left-of-centre’ vote than in 2017 means the Conservatives will hope that Labour-Liberal Democrat switchers will gift them this seat back. Headland prediction: CONSERVATIVE GAIN

Headland briefing | general election key seat guide – The South of England | 4 GUILDFORD Incumbent: (Independent, elected Conservative) Majority: 17,040 The only part of to have elected anything but a Conservative MP over the last 50 years, this seat was held by the Liberal Democrats from 2001-2005. Since then it has again been a Conservative strong hold, represented by Anne Milton who held several ministerial roles including Skills Minister and Deputy Chief Whip. Milton stood down from the Government when Boris Johnson became Prime Minister and had the whip removed when she voted against the Withdrawal Bill’s Programme Motion. She has not had the whip restored and instead will run as an Independent. Guildford itself voted 59% to remain in the EU and Milton will be hoping her pro- EU stance in a constituency which is becoming increasingly liberal as it turns into a London commuter town will retain her the seat. However, the decision by the Liberal Democrats to stand means this will be a very tight battle. Headland prediction: INDEPENDENT GAIN

THE SOUTH WEST The South West was traditionally a Conservative-Liberal Democrat battleground until 2015, with the few Labour MPs concentrated in city-based constituencies. However, Liberal Democrat support has plummeted in the region since the coalition and seats once seen as marginal are now Conservative strong holds. The declining support of the Liberal Democrats through the election campaign points to a similar outcome this time, thus making the interesting seats to watch those few Conservative/Labour battlegrounds.

STROUD Incumbent: David Drew (Labour) Majority: 687 This Remain-voting enclave nestled on the edge of the side of The Cotswolds saw Labour MP David Drew elected in 2017 after losing his seat in 2010. The constituency, centred around the town of , has become a centre for arts and gastronomy in the region and is home to one of Britain’s biggest farmers’ markets as well as artists’ facilities for people such as Jasper Conran and Damien Hirst. It has one of the smallest majorities in the South West and went Labour through the coalition of Remain voters coalescing around David Drew, who ironically was until recently a passionate Leaver (even having UKIP endorse him in 2010). The Conservatives will be hoping the Green Party will split the Labour vote and let them back in. Headland prediction: CONSERVATIVE GAIN

Headland briefing | general election key seat guide – The South of England | 5 CAMBORNE AND REDRUTH Incumbent: George Eustice (Conservative) Majority - 1,577 Cornwall very often bucks the demographic trend. Despite being one of the least affluent parts of the country, it regularly returns Conservative MPs and that is the same in Cambourne and Redruth. Though its predecessor seats were held by both Labour and the Liberal Democrats from 1997-2005, the Conservatives have been the dominant party for decades. Labour came close in 2017, put down by many to the older population of Conservative voters staying at home in protest over the ‘dementia tax’. That looks unlikely to repeat in this election though and this Leave-voting constituency looks set to return their Conservative MP George Eustice. Headland prediction: CONSERVATIVE HOLD

BRISTOL NORTH WEST Incumbent: Darren Jones (Labour) Majority: 4,761 A classic Labour-Conservative marginal, having gone with the winning party at every election since 1955, North West was one of the surprise victories for Labour in 2017. It is a clear example of them benefitting from the coalescing of the Remain vote in a seat that voted heavily to stay in the EU (by 60%). Unlike other parts of Bristol, the seat has a sizeable proportion of “Tory Remainers” who were prepared to lend their vote to Labour at the last election. However, the change in Labour’s Brexit position and a general fatigue with the whole issue puts this at risk and means the constituency will be high up on the Conservative target list. Labour should have enough votes to hold on, but it will be a very close run. Headland prediction: LABOUR HOLD

PLYMOUTH, MOOR VIEW Incumbent: Johnny Mercer (Conservative) Majority: 5,019 This seat has been home to some of the most famous parliamentarians of the last century including Labour leader Michael Foot, SDP leader David Owen and Britain’s first female MP Nancy Astor. It is now represented by Veterans Minister and Boris Johnson ally Johnny Mercer. Mercer has become a more public figure in recent months due to public spats with several journalists. A pre-EU referendum reading of the two Plymouth seats would have made this a far more winnable Labour prospect than the neighbouring constituency Sutton & Devonport. However, Moor View had a Leave vote of about 69% and is a brilliant example of a seat which would traditionally have been a strong Labour target but has been shaken up by Brexit. That said, Labour have a popular young candidate and are putting a lot of resource into the seat. It is probably outside their grasp this time, but they will be looking for a shock victory. Headland prediction: CONSERVATIVE HOLD

Headland briefing | general election key seat guide – The South of England | 6 Incumbent: Sarah Wollaston (Liberal Democrat, elected Conservative) Majority: 13,477 Home to former Conservative Chair of the Health Select Committee and local GP Sarah Wollaston, this seat has been a Conservative stronghold since before WWII. However, -minded and locally popular Wollaston, who left the Conservatives over Brexit to join the Liberal Democrats, will be looking to use her personal brand and the absence of any real challenge from other ‘Remain’ supporting parties to turn this seat orange. It will be a tall ask to turn over such a big Conservative majority, but a candidate like Wollaston is the most likely of any to be able to do it. Headland prediction: CONSERVATIVE GAIN

Headland briefing | general election key seat guide – The South of England | 7