Argentina and the Falklands: Thirty years on

A Henry Jackson Society Strategic Briefing By Peter Cannon February 2012 Executive summary:

◊ 30 years on from the , has ◊ Spain has also sought to renew its claim to Gibraltar escalated its diplomatic and economic campaign to and to call for bilateral negotiations over sovereignty. claim the from the Like Argentina, Spain seeks to act without reference (UK). to the self-determination of the population of the ◊ Argentina has complained to the United Nations territory. (UN) about the UK, accusing it of ‘militarisation’ of ◊ Concerns have been expressed about the UK’s the South Atlantic. This is clearly unjustified as the capacity to repeat its success of 1982 in the event of reasons for the UK’s military presence is Argentina’s an Argentine invasion of the Falklands, particularly continuing claim to the territory following its following the Strategic Defence and Security Review. unsuccessful attempt to take the islands by force in However, the islands are much better defended 1982. now and it is highly doubtful that Argentina has the ◊ Argentina has received support in its campaign from military capability to launch a successful invasion. neighbouring countries and leftist political leaders in ◊ There is, however, no room for complacency given Latin America. The United States (US) administration Argentina’s behaviour. The UK must retain the will unhelpfully states that it “takes no position regarding and the capability to defend the Falkland Islands and sovereignty”. the rights of the , alone. Argentina’s complaint to the UN

In this year of the 30th anniversary of the Falklands War, the dispute over the Falkland Islands has reached a new level. In February, Argentina formally complained to the United Nations (UN) over the United Kingdom (UK)’s alleged ‘militarisation’ of the South Atlantic. According to the Argentine government, by deploying HMS Dauntless (a Type-45 ) to the South Atlantic, the UK was “militarising the region”. 1 Argentine foreign minister Héctor Timerman presented the UK as an imperialist power, displaying HMS Dauntless was deployed to the Falklands in a map of UK bases across the South Atlantic between January 2012. and Africa and complaining that the “Empire’s capital” was 4,000 miles away, and adding: The Argentine foreign minister sought to raise “It is the last ocean that is controlled by the United the level of alarm at the UN by accusing the UK of Kingdom – Britannia rules only the South Atlantic.” sending nuclear weapons to the area. Timerman 2 Similarly, Argentine president Cristina Fernandez stated: “Argentina has information that within the argued “this militarisation poses a grave danger framework of the recent British deployment in the to international security... We cannot interpret in Malvinas Islands they sent a nuclear ... to any other way the deployment of an ultra-modern transport nuclear weapons to the South Atlantic... destroyer accompanying the heir to the throne, who The information Argentina has is that there are these we would prefer to see in civilian attire.” 3 nuclear weapons.” He argued that this violated the Treaty of Tlatelolco for the Prohibition of Nuclear This was an extraordinary complaint to come from Weapons in Latin America and the Caribbean. Argentina, given that the reason for the British Needless to say, this was a ridiculous accusation as military presence in the South Atlantic is to deter any the location of the UK’s nuclear deterrent repeat of Argentina’s 1982 invasion of the islands, is a closely guarded secret, and as Trident missiles in an unprovoked attack to take the islands by force have a range of up to 7,500 miles anyway. The UK’s against the wishes of the population. As the Falkland ambassador to the United Nations, Sir Mark Lyall Islands are British sovereign territory, British military Grant said “We do not comment on the disposition of deployments there should not be Argentina’s concern, nuclear weapons and submarines. I don’t know how but are for the UK to decide. Similarly, the deployment he knows about submarines. I certainly don’t know. of Prince William, the Duke of Cambridge, as an RAF The whole point of nuclear submarines is that they go search-and-rescue pilot is a routine deployment which all around the world and you don’t know where they cannot realistically be said to pose a threat to anyone, are. That’s why they’re a deterrent.” 4 Sir Mark pointed and which is none of Argentina’s business. out that the UK’s defence posture had not changed, and that HMS Dauntless was replacing another ship. 1 ‘Argentina minister to raise “UK militarisation” at UN’, BBC News, 9th February 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-16976491 2 ‘Argentina accuses Britain of sending nuclear missiles to Falklands’, Daily Telegraph, 11th February 2012, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/ southamerica/falklandislands/9075975/Argentina-accuses-Britain-of-sending-nuclear- missiles-to-Falklands.html 4 ‘Argentina accuses Britain of sending nuclear missiles to Falklands’, Daily Telegraph, 11th February 2012, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/ 3 ‘Downing Street denies UK is “militarising” Falklands’, BBC News, 8th February southamerica/falklandislands/9075975/Argentina-accuses-Britain-of-sending-nuclear- 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16947668 missiles-to-Falklands.html

3 Support for Argentina’s campaign of CELAC support “Argentina’s legitimate rights in to isolate the Falkland Islands the sovereignty dispute over the Falklands/Malvinas, Georgia del Sur and Sandwich del Sur Islands, as well Argentina’s complaint to the UN is but the latest as its surrounding maritime spaces.” 9 step in Argentina’s diplomatic campaign to isolate the UK in its refusal to negotiate over its sovereignty Some leftist Latin American leaders were particularly over the Falklands. This has been accompanied outspoken. Rafael Correa, president of Ecuador, by a mounting campaign to isolate the islands called for further actions against the UK, telling other economically. Argentina claims the seas around the ALBA leaders: “It is time for Latin America to decide Falklands as Argentine waters and attempts to stop sanctions against this mistaken power that pretends ships from reaching the islands. Ships rounding to be imperialist and colonialist in the 21st century. Cape Horn heading for the Falklands are routinely I think we have to apply more forceful things. We stopped, searched and delayed, with the result that have to talk about sanctions.” 10 Venezuelan leader many merchant vessels no longer attempt the journey, Hugo Chavez offered Argentina military support in which results in periodical shortages of goods. 5 the event of any war, declaring: “I’m speaking only Argentina has also put pressure on to end the for Venezuela, but if it occurs to the British Empire to weekly flights from Punta Arenas to Port Stanley, attack Argentina, Argentina won’t be alone this time. which pass through Argentine airspace. 6 Venezuela is no power, but we’ve got some weapons and the will to face any imperialist aggression.” 11 Argentina recently succeeded in persuading Cuba’s Fidel Castro mocked Britain’s military position, neighbouring countries to refuse access to their ports saying: “Somewhere is the English ship sailing to the to ships flying the Falkland Islands flag. On 15th Falklands but the English only have one little boat December 2011, the Mercosur group of Argentina, left. The only ones who have aircraft carriers are , Paraguay and agreed to block any the Yankees. All the English can do is send over a ship flying the Falklands flag to enter their ports. 7 destroyer, they can’t even send an .” 12 This was followed by a similar move this month from the left-leaning Bolivarian Alternative of the Americas Limits to the support for

8 (ALBA) bloc. This included Commonwealth members Argentina Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, and St Vincent and the Grenadines. This follows support for from the There are limits to the support which Argentina newly formed Community of Latin American and has received. Shortly after the ALBA summit, the Caribbean States (CELAC), which held its first summit Dominican government released a statement saying in Caracas, Venezuela, in December 2011. At the that “Dominica disassociates itself from statements Caracas summit, CELAC issued a ‘Special Communiqué regarding the banning of ships carrying the flag of Project on the Malvinas Islands’ stating that members

9 ‘Argentina and the Falkland Islands’, Vaughan Miller, House of Commons Library, 27th January 2012, http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN05602 5 ‘Falkland Islands: A shortage of eggs’, Allan Little, BBC News, http://www.bbc.co.uk/ news/magazine-16980747 10 ‘Caribbean countries back Argentina over Falklands with blockade’, Uki Goni, The Guardian, 6th February 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/feb/06/falklands- 6 ‘Argentina accused of plotting Falklands blockade’, Rory Carroll, Jonathan Franklin argentina-britain-blockade in Santiago and Uki Goni in Buenos Aires, The Guardian, 1st February 2012, http:// www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/feb/01/argentina-falklands-economic-blockade 11 ‘Hugo Chavez says Venezuelan troops would fight with Argentina over Falklands’, Barney Henderson, Daily Telegraph, 6th February 2012, http://www.telegraph. 7 ‘William Hague warns against Falklands intimidation’, Theo Usherwood, 10th co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/9063065/Hugo-Chavez-says- January 2012, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/william-hague-warns- Venezuelan-troops-would-fight-with-Argentina-over-Falklands.html against-falklands-intimidation-6287659.html 12 ‘Castro mocks UK Falklands claim as Argentina accuses Britain of “militarisation”’, 8 ‘Caribbean countries back Argentina over Falklands with blockade’, Uki Goni, The Jon Swaine & Raf Sanchez, Daily Telegraph, 9th February 2012, http://www.telegraph. Guardian, 6th February 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/feb/06/falklands- co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/9068701/Castro-mocks-UK- argentina-britain-blockade Falklands-claim-as-Argentina-accuses-Britain-of-militarisation.html

4 the Falklands from entering its ports.” Antigua and naval capacity is normal and is typical for this time Barbuda also distanced itself from that part of the of year. So we don’t have any reason to question ALBA declaration. 13 Despite the Mercosur ban on that.” 16 Similarly, when a journalist asked about the Falklands-flagged ships, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay all deployment of Prince William, Nuland responded that agreed with the British Government that Falklands his deployment was “as part of his normal work”. 17 shipping flying the Red Ensign or another national flag would still be admitted to their ports as normal. 14 This However, the US’s position on British sovereignty means that the ban should have little practical effect. over the Falklands is less than helpful, with the official position being “We recognize de facto United Argentina’s complaint to the UN about the UK’s Kingdom administration of the islands but take no ‘militarisation’ of the South Atlantic has, unsurprisingly, position regarding sovereignty”. 18 Considering the got nowhere so far. The Argentine press lamented the overwhelming desire of the Falkland Islanders to fact that the Argentine complaint has not generated remain British, the fact that the islands have been “a single international condemnation, verbally or continually British since 1833 (before many US states through a resolution”. The press offices from UN became part of the Union) and the alliance between Secretary General Ban-Ki moon and the UN General the US and the UK, there is no justification for the US Assembly president Nassir Abdulaziz Al-Nasser sent not to recognise British sovereignty over the Falklands. out official releases following their meetings with Nor is it reasonable for the US Acting Assistant Timerman, but neither of them referred to the alleged Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs, Roberta UK militarisation of the South Atlantic. The president Jacobson, to call on the UK to ‘negotiate a diplomatic of the Security Council, Kodjo Menam did not even solution’ with Argentina. 19 As this is a British territory bother to issue a press release on the meeting, whose population wishes it to remain a British according to Argentine press correspondents in territory, there is nothing to negotiate. New York. The most Argentina was able to get from Ban Ki-Moon was a statement that he was “willing The stance of the Obama administration has not to coordinate among both sides if the countries so been without criticism from within the US, with request it.” 15 As the UK does not wish to negotiate, this Robert O’Brien, an advisor to Mitt Romney arguing situation will not arise. that President Obama is ‘not reliable’ to its allies: “He has not been with Israel regarding Iran and he is not The position of the United States being with Great Britain in the issue of the Falklands, and all the fuss the Argentines are making over The United States (US) administration quickly that”. 20 A recent editorial in Investor’s Business Daily dismissed the Argentine claim of ‘militarisation’, criticised the Obama administration for “Coddling the with US State Department spokeswoman Victoria aggressors in the name of ‘peace.’” and an inability Nuland saying: “The UK has made clear to us and to 16 ‘US disregards Argentine claim of UK’s Falklands’ and South Atlantic the Argentines that what they are engaged in, in a “militarization”’, MercoPress, 16th February 2012, http://en.mercopress. com/2012/02/16/us-disregards-argentine-claim-of-uk-s-falklands-and-south-atlantic- militarization 17 US State Department Daily Press Briefing, 9th February 2012, http://www.state. 13 ‘Dominica disassociates from barring Falklands’ flagged vessels from its ports’, gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2012/02/183639.htm MercoPress, 15th February 2012, http://en.mercopress.com/2012/02/15/dominica- disassociates-from-barring-falklands-flagged-vessels-from-its-ports 18 ‘U.S. Position on the Falkland (Malvinas) Islands’, US State Department Taken Question, 20th January 2012, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2012/01/182294.htm 14 ‘William Hague warns against Falklands intimidation’, Theo Usherwood, The Independent, 10th January 2012, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ 19 ‘US calls for diplomatic solution to Falklands sovereignty issue’, Andina, 9th william-hague-warns-against-falklands-intimidation-6287659.html February 2012, http://www.andina.com.pe/Ingles/Noticia.aspx?Id=7YuKkH+mwg4= 15 ‘Timerman Falklands “militarization claim” with little echo at UN admits Argentine 20 ‘Timerman Falklands “militarization claim” with little echo at UN admits Argentine press’, MercoPress, 21st February 2012, http://en.mercopress.com/2012/02/21/ press’, MercoPress, 21st February 2012, http://en.mercopress.com/2012/02/21/ timerman-falklands-militarization-claim-with-little-echo-at-un-admits-argentine-press timerman-falklands-militarization-claim-with-little-echo-at-un-admits-argentine-press

5 to decide “between our top ally, Britain, and Hugo Chavez-aligned Argentina”. 21 Republican Congressman Jim Sensenbrenner recently visited the Falklands, and stated that if the United Nations “means what it says,” it should support “the decision that Falkland Islanders had made for themselves.... Rather than being treated to PowerPoint presentations by Foreign Minister Gibraltar Timerman, they (the UN) should back up the self- determination of Falkland Islanders.” 22 the cases of the Falklands and Gibraltar “look alike because they are included in the UN list of territories The issue of Spain and Gibraltar subject to decolonization; because the principle of self- determination is not applicable.” Garcia Mallego also At the same time as Argentina’s renewed efforts to stated that he would write to the British Government force negotiations over the Falklands, the UK is also to formally reject the principle that the facing renewed diplomatic pressure from the Spanish themselves should have the right to veto any Government over Gibraltar. The new centre-right negotiations. 24 Given that Gibraltar is democratically Popular Party government has called for bilateral self-governing; that it has been a British territory negotiations between the Spanish and British since 1704 and was ceded by Spain to the UK in the governments over the British overseas territory, Treaty of Utrecht in 1713; and that the population without including the elected government of Gibraltar. has overwhelmingly rejected the idea of Spanish and In a gesture of the new government’s more hard-line shared sovereignty in referenda in 1967 and 2002, this attitude, the new foreign minister Jose Manuel Garcia- approach is completely unjustified and blatantly anti- Margallo greeted a British Conservative Member of democratic. the European Parliament with the slogan “Gibraltar, Español!” 23 More seriously, Garcia Margallo has said Gibraltar itself also has a new, Socialist, government that the trilateral Dialogue Forum (between the British, which is absolutely opposed to any negotiations with Spanish and Gibraltar governments during the time Spain over Gibraltar’s sovereignty. The new chief of the previous Socialist government) “in its Socialist minister Fabian Picardo, responded to the Spanish version is dead”. Government’s demands by saying: “We are always hopeful that Spain will follow us into the 21st Century Speaking after the Somalia conference in London on and drop its claim on our land... We are seeing what 23rd February, Garcia Mallego commented: “There’s appears to be a more proactive desire by Spain to no need for a prophet or a Pulitzer Prize to know that raise the sovereignty issue... it seems to me the in the coming UN session, Malvinas and Gibraltar will Spanish have other more important priorities than be discussed and that the UN will again reiterate that historic claims over my people.” 25 In October 2011, we must sit and negotiate”. Worryingly, he added that following an agreement to base US anti-missile warships at Rota, former Labour Europe minister 21 ‘Argentina Acts Up—Again—Over Falkland Islands’, Investors Business Daily, 9th February 2012, http://news.investors.com/article/600742/201202091913/argentina- Denis MacShane MP wrote in the Spanish newspaper falklands-tensions-up-with-uk.htm 22 ‘Cool it Argentina says US congressman in Stanley’, Penguin News, 24th February 24 ‘Spain trusts Gibraltar and Malvinas cases will be addressed at next UN General 2012, http://www.penguin-news.com/index.php?option=com_flexicontent&view=items&i Assembly’, MercoPress, 24th February 2012, http://en.mercopress.com/2012/02/24/ d=267:cool-it-argentina-says-us-congressman-in-stanley spain-trusts-gibraltar-and-malvinas-cases-will-be-addressed-at-next-un-general- assembly 23 ‘”Gibraltar, Español!” Spanish foreign minister’s joke to Tory MEP as he’s congratulated on his new job’, Daily Mail, 19th January 2012, http://www.dailymail. 25 ‘Gibraltar: Between the Rock and an increasingly hard-line place’, Harriet co.uk/news/article-2088965/Gibraltar-Espa-ol-Spanish-foreign-ministers-joke-Tory- Alexander, Daily Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ MEP-hes-congratulated-new-job.html spain/9061381/Gibraltar-Between-the-Rock-and-an-increasingly-hard-line-place.html

6 El Mundo: “London must now ask itself seriously if have died in vain.” 27 Yet 255 British servicemen died its constant refusal to discuss a new agreement on liberating the islands after the unprovoked Argentine Gibraltar has any strategic sense, when Madrid has invasion in 1982. To give away sovereignty now, moved on to occupy the place as the main ally of the against the wishes of the population, would be the US in the area of defence.” 26 Given the overwhelming betrayal of their sacrifice. 99 per cent rejection of the principle of any sharing of sovereignty between the UK and Spain by the Ceding sovereignty to Argentina is not a ‘compromise’ Gibraltarian people in the 2002 referendum, any but a capitulation. If the islands were to become attempt to reach another agreement with Spain over Argentinean, promises of local democracy and a their heads would be a shameful betrayal. Negotiating ‘British way of life’ would becoming meaningless over a prosperous, peaceful and democratic territory and unenforceable. When Argentina has tried and (and military base) that has been British for over three failed to take a British territory by force and now centuries against the wishes of its people makes no attempts to bully and blockade its population, there strategic sense whatsoever, particularly when the is no justification and no discernible benefit in UK is facing aggressive claims on another one of its rewarding Argentina with sovereignty. As the Henry territories. Jackson Society’s George Grant recently pointed out, Argentina’s relative proximity to the Falklands and the Why the UK should not negotiate UK’s distance does not confer any legitimacy or logic

28 with Argentina on Argentina’s claim. It is also worth remembering that Argentina also claims South Georgia and the Peter Slowe, a former financial advisor to the Blair South Sandwich Islands, with which it has no historical government, recently argued that the “UK must hand connection whatsoever, as well as the British Antarctic the Falklands back to Argentina”. Slowe argues “both Territory. Most importantly, of course, such a move Britain and Argentina have had serious doubts at would completely violate the self-determination of the various times about their respective claims to the islanders. The UK is often accused of ‘colonialism’, but Falkland Islands” and “Argentina and Britain both feel to bargain away a territory and a population against they have a right to the Falklands based less on legal their wishes for financial or other diplomatic motives rights than on different concepts of natural justice”. would be the most gross form of colonialism and Slowe argues that Britain and Argentina had been utterly unacceptable in the modern world. willing to negotiate before the Falklands War and that “On the 30th anniversary of the Falklands War, it is In the Guardian, the historian Richard Gott argued that surely time for a compromise”. Slowe’s ‘compromise’ “Britain is asleep over Argentina and the Falklands” is that “Britain should cede sovereignty to Argentina and “South America is growing in strength and while ensuring by treaty with the now-democratic increasingly united.” Gott argues that “Britain must government of Argentina that the tiny local population wake up to this new reality” by agreeing to negotiate can continue to enjoy local democracy and a ‘British’ with Argentina. Latin America has indeed become way of life.” Astonishingly, Slowe concludes the more united behind Argentina’s claim and more argument by saying “Then 904 young servicemen, hostile to British sovereignty over the Falklands. who should by now be old or middle-aged, will not 27 ‘Comment: UK must hand the Falklands back to Argentina’, Peter Slowe, Politics. co.uk, 7th February 2012, http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2012/02/07/ comment-uk-must-hand-the-falklands-back-to-argentina 28 ‘Argentina has no more claim to the Falklands than Canada does to Alaska’, 26 ‘MacShane says Spain and UK should revisit Gib deal’, Dominique Searle, George Grant, Daily Telegraph, 8th February 2012, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ Gibraltar Chronicle, 13th October 2011, http://www.chronicle.gi/headlines_details. worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/9069338/Argentina-has-no-more-claim-to-the- php?id=22979 Falklands-than-Canada-does-to-Alaska.html

7 That is no justification for giving up on the British HMS Dauntless and the Royal Fleet Auxiliary support Government’s commitment to protect the rights of vessel RFA Gold Rover. 31 There is also likely to be an the Falkland Islanders to self-determination. 29 Such a attack submarine, although the UK does not comment public display of weakness and bad faith would hardly on submarine deployments. With the Typhoon fighters be beneficial to British diplomacy, or to attempts to and the UK’s naval presence, it would be difficult promote and defend human rights and democracy for Argentina to transport land forces across 300 worldwide. It is highly doubtful that giving in to miles of ocean to invade the islands. The possibility Argentina’s bullying will ingratiate the UK with the ‘anti- of an Argentine special forces operation to capture imperialist’ leftist political leaders of Latin America, RAF Mount Pleasant has been suggested, but they rather than simply emboldening the anti-British would face 1,200 British troops. Professor Michael and anti-US mood. It is encouraging that the British Clarke, director of the Royal United Services Institute, government is seeking to strengthen relationships concludes: “There’s no way Argentine forces could ever with Latin America, but this should not come at the take Mt Pleasant air base.” 32 price of denying the most basic rights to Britain’s own people and betraying our own values. 30 The UK’s problems would come in trying to retake the Falklands in that worst case scenario of Argentina The defence of the Falkland managing to take or destroy RAF Mount Pleasant. Islands With the Strategic Defence and Security Review having left the UK without carrier strike capability following With the heightened tension over the Falklands, the retirement of the Harrier fleet and HMS Ark Royal, attention has inevitably turned to the defence assembling a naval task force with air cover as the situation in the islands, and whether the UK would UK did in 1982 would be impossible. With no carrier- be able to repeat its success of thirty years ago were based jet aircraft, the UK’s one remaining aircraft Argentine forces to attack the islands again. There is carrier, HMS Illustrious, is being used as an assault no doubt that the Islands are much better defended ship and is due to be decommissioned in 2014. The now than they were in 1982. UK is not due to have another aircraft carrier until the planned completion of the first of the two new Whereas in 1982 the Falklands were defended by 70 Queen Elizabeth class carriers in 2020. The 1982 task Royal Marines, there is now a British garrison of 1,200, force had two aircraft carriers, in 2012 the UK has plus 200 reservists in the Falkland Islands Defence none. British air power would have to operate from Force. There is now an RAF base on , , which is 4,000 miles away. Mount Pleasant, with four Eurofighter Typhoon strike fighters, a Hercules transport plane, a VC-10 tanker During House of Commons defence questions, plane and Rapier surface-to-air missiles. Mount defence secretary Philip Hammond told Parliament Pleasant could of course be reinforced by air in an that “plans exist for rapid reinforcement of the land, emergency. In 1982, the South Atlantic was patrolled sea and air forces in and around the islands should only by HMS Endurance, an Antarctic ice patrol vessel. any such threat appear.” 33 It has been reported that Now, as well as the Antarctic patrol vessel HMS Clyde, the Ministry of Defence has contingency plans for a the South Atlantic is patrolled by the 31 ‘The defence of the Falkland Islands’, Louisa Brooke-Holland, House of Commons Library, 8th February 2012, http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06201 29 ‘Britain is asleep over Argentina and the Falklands’, Richard Gott, The Guardian, 22nd December 2011, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/dec/22/britain- 32 ‘Could Britain still defend the Falklands?’, BBC News Magazine, 27th February asleep-over-falkland-islands 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17157373 30 ‘William Hague pushes for stronger Latin America ties’, BBC News, 20th January 33 Hansard, 20th February 2011, http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201212/ 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16643670 cmhansrd/cm120220/debtext/120220-0001.htm

8 rapid response ‘mini task force’ to be formed from Falklands War. Gareth Jennings, head of the air desk the Response Force Task Group, an amphibious unit at IHS Jane’s, observes: “Argentina has not purchased set up in 2010. More Typhoon fighters would be a single new combat aircraft since before the war in flown to RAF Mount Pleasant, troop reinforcements 1982... Essentially, it has the same air power it had would be flown in by the air bridge from RAF Brize back in 1982, minus the aircraft that were shot down. Norton to Ascension Island and ships would be sent They didn’t fare too well against the Sea Harriers then from Plymouth, the Caribbean and the African coasts. and they’d be torn apart by the Typhoons today.” 38 In 34 Much of this would still depend on RAF Mount addition, Argentina no longer possesses the landing Pleasant remaining operational and in British hands. craft to enable an amphibious assault. Michael Clarke goes so far as to argue that while the Falklands war Former Chief of the General Staff Sir Mike Jackson has was 30 years ago, “in military terms it is 100 years argued that in the event of Mount Pleasant falling; ago,” as British forces have advanced about 60 years “our ability to recover the islands now would be just in sophistication, but Argentine forces have barely about impossible. We are not in a position to take improved. 39 air power by sea since the demise of the Harrier force.” 35 Similarly, Admiral Sir Sandy Woodward, who What next? commanded the British task force in 1982, warns that “we can do precisely nothing”. 36 RUSI’s Michael This is the main reason why an Argentine military Clarke argues that it would still be possible to retake attack is, in the foreseeable future unlikely. Yet such an the islands through long-range air power. If Mount event cannot be ruled out. The 1982 invasion took the Pleasant was taken by Argentina, bombers from British government by surprise. 40 There is no room for Ascension Island could destroy the base and any complacency now. Argentine defences, after which British special forces could be dropped to regain control. 37 This would be a It is therefore encouraging that the security of the far from straightforward option. Falklands was discussed at length by the UK’s National Security Council. 41 made clear: “The Argentina’s military capability also needs to be reason for holding a National Security Council – which considered. While the UK’s armed forces are also discussed other topics – is to discuss that issue, much smaller than in 1982, so are Argentina’s. The is to make sure nobody is in any doubt that Britain percentage of Argentina’s GDP which it spends on supports that right of self-determination, and we will defence is less than half that of the UK. Whereas the go on doing so for as long as people in the Falklands UK’s armed forces are much better-equipped and want to continue in that way.” 42 more technologically advanced than in 1982, Argentina has hardly updated its military hardware since the 38 ‘The defence of the Falkland Islands’, Louisa Brooke-Holland, House of Commons Library, 8th February 2012, http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06201 34 ‘Falklands task force plan “ready” if Argentina threatens to invade again’, 39 ‘Could Britain still defend the Falklands?’, BBC News Magazine, 27th February Glen Owen, Daily Mail, 27th February 2012, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17157373 article-2106519/Falklands-task-force-plan-ready-Argentina-threatens-invade-again.html 40 ‘Complacency over the Falklands could cost Britain dear’, Con Coughlin, 35 ‘Britain faces “impossible” battle if Argentina invades Falklands, warns General Sir Daily Telegraph, 19th January 2012, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/ Michael Jackson’, Cole Moreton, Daily Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ southamerica/falklandislands/9025236/Complacency-over-theFalklands-could-cost- worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/9046476/Britain-faces-impossible-battle-if- Britain-dear.html Argentina-invades-Falklands-warns-General-Sir-Michael-Jackson.html 41 ‘Falklands - David Cameron Reveals Security Chiefs Discussed Argentina 36 ‘Britain can do “nothing” to prevent Argentina retaking Falkland Islands’, Thomas Tensions’, Huffington Post UK, 18th January 2012, http://www.huffingtonpost. Harding, Daily Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/ co.uk/2012/01/18/falklands-david-cameron-national-security-council- falklandislands/8571442/Britain-can-do-nothing-to-prevent-Argentina-retaking-Falkland- argentina_n_1212834.html Islands.html 42 ‘Falkland Islands stir fresh tensions as war’s 30th anniversary looms’, Nicholas 37 ‘Could Britain still defend the Falklands?’, BBC News Magazine, 27th February Watt, The Guardian, 18th January 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/jan/18/ 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17157373 falkland-islands-argentina-anniversary-war Argentina’s actions mean that British inaction is not government is also now seeking not just to blockade an option. Defence minister Arturo Puricelli raised the the Falklands, but to target the UK as a whole prospect of armed conflict, telling an Argentine radio economically, with industry minister Debora Giorgi station: ““What the British have got to understand urging Argentine companies to stop importing British is that we tolerate them in the Falklands but if any goods. 46 armed English force invades Argentine territory, have no doubt we will exercise our legitimate right In the face of such attempts at intimidation, it is right to self-defence and we have the capacity to do so.” for the British government to continue to demonstrate Given that Argentina regards the Falklands and the that it is ‘business as usual’ in the Falklands. David surrounding areas as ‘Argentine territory’, this could be Willetts, the universities minister, visited the Falklands interpreted as a very broad threat. 43 in February en route to the British Antarctic Survey. 47 MPs from the defence select committee are due Argentina’s diplomatic campaign continues. to visit the Falklands in March, which has sparked Fernandez de Kirchner has invited leaders from South predictable anger from Argentina. 48 There is little America’s Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) the UK can do which would not be interpreted as bloc to join her in Ushaia on 2nd April at a ceremony a ‘provocation’ by the Argentine government. It is marking the 30th anniversary of the Argentine right that such visits, which are entirely legitimate invasion of the Falklands. 44 On 25th February, a and normal in British territory and should be of no special session of the foreign affairs committees of concern to Argentina, should continue unimpeded. the two houses of the Argentine congress was held, Further diplomatic and economic pressure in this 30th at which a cross-party group unanimously agreed year since the Falklands War and in future years is the ‘Ushuaia declaration’ asserting the “legitimate to be expected. The UK must retain the will and the and imprescriptible Argentine sovereignty over the capability to defend the Falkland Islands and the rights Malvinas, South Georgia and South Sandwich and of the islanders, alone. adjoining maritime spaces Islands” and condemning the “persistent colonialist and militaristic attitude of the UK in the South Atlantic”. 45 The Argentine party-lawmakers-group-ratify-malvinas-sovereignty-claim-in-ushuaia 46 ‘Falklands dispute: Argentina “urges UK import ban”’, BBC News, 29th January 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-17200528 43 ‘We’re ready for Falklands war says Argentina’, Macer Hall, 9th February 2012, http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/300965/ 47 ‘Argentina does not pose threat to Falklands, says Philip Hammond’, Robert Winnett, Daily Telegraph, 21st February 2012, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ 44 ‘Argentina Bars Carnival Ships From Docking’, Alejandro Madril, Huffington Post, worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/9094677/Argentina-does-not-pose-threat-to- 27th February 2012, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/27/argentina-cruises- Falklands-says-Philip-Hammond.html falklands_n_1304545.html 48 ‘MPs to visit Falklands amid UK tensions with Argentina’, BBC News, 15th 45 ‘Argentine all-party lawmakers group ratify Malvinas sovereignty claim in Ushuaia’, February 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17039197 MercoPress, 26th February 2012, http://en.mercopress.com/2012/02/26/argentine-all-

About the author

Peter Cannon is an Associate Fellow at the HJS. Peter studied a BSc in Government and History and an MA in the History of International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science. He has worked for the Shadow Justice Secretary and for a public affairs consultancy. He currently works for a Conservative MP in Parliament, and is also a local councillor in Dartford, Kent.

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