In Defense of Truth: Skepticism, Morality, and the Matrix
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
What Is the Balance Between Certainty and Uncertainty?
What is the balance between certainty and uncertainty? Susan Griffin, Centre for Health Economics, University of York Overview • Decision analysis – Objective function – The decision to invest/disinvest in health care programmes – The decision to require further evidence • Characterising uncertainty – Epistemic uncertainty, quality of evidence, modelling uncertainty • Possibility for research Theory Objective function • Methods can be applied to any decision problem – Objective – Quantitative index measure of outcome • Maximise health subject to budget constraint – Value improvement in quality of life in terms of equivalent improvement in length of life → QALYs • Maximise health and equity s.t budget constraint – Value improvement in equity in terms of equivalent improvement in health The decision to invest • Maximise health subject to budget constraint – Constrained optimisation problem – Given costs and health outcomes of all available programmes, identify optimal set • Marginal approach – Introducing new programme displaces existing activities – Compare health gained to health forgone resources Slope gives rate at C A which resources converted to health gains with currently funded programmes health HGA HDA resources Slope gives rate at which resources converted to health gains with currently funded programmes CB health HDB HGB Requiring more evidence • Costs and health outcomes estimated with uncertainty • Cost of uncertainty: programme funded on basis of estimated costs and outcomes might turn out not to be that which maximises health -
Would ''Direct Realism'' Resolve the Classical Problem of Induction?
NOU^S 38:2 (2004) 197–232 Would ‘‘Direct Realism’’ Resolve the Classical Problem of Induction? MARC LANGE University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill I Recently, there has been a modest resurgence of interest in the ‘‘Humean’’ problem of induction. For several decades following the recognized failure of Strawsonian ‘‘ordinary-language’’ dissolutions and of Wesley Salmon’s elaboration of Reichenbach’s pragmatic vindication of induction, work on the problem of induction languished. Attention turned instead toward con- firmation theory, as philosophers sensibly tried to understand precisely what it is that a justification of induction should aim to justify. Now, however, in light of Bayesian confirmation theory and other developments in epistemology, several philosophers have begun to reconsider the classical problem of induction. In section 2, I shall review a few of these developments. Though some of them will turn out to be unilluminating, others will profitably suggest that we not meet inductive scepticism by trying to justify some alleged general principle of ampliative reasoning. Accordingly, in section 3, I shall examine how the problem of induction arises in the context of one particular ‘‘inductive leap’’: the confirmation, most famously by Henrietta Leavitt and Harlow Shapley about a century ago, that a period-luminosity relation governs all Cepheid variable stars. This is a good example for the inductive sceptic’s purposes, since it is difficult to see how the sparse background knowledge available at the time could have entitled stellar astronomers to regard their observations as justifying this grand inductive generalization. I shall argue that the observation reports that confirmed the Cepheid period- luminosity law were themselves ‘‘thick’’ with expectations regarding as yet unknown laws of nature. -
Climate Scepticism, Epistemic Dissonance, and the Ethics of Uncertainty
SYMPOSIUM A CHANGING MORAL CLIMATE CLIMATE SCEPTICISM, EPISTEMIC DISSONANCE, AND THE ETHICS OF UNCERTAINTY BY AXEL GELFERT © 2013 – Philosophy and Public Issues (New Series), Vol. 3, No. 1 (2013): 167-208 Luiss University Press E-ISSN 2240-7987 | P-ISSN 1591-0660 [THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK] A CHANGING MORAL CLIMATE Climate Scepticism, Epistemic Dissonance, and the Ethics of Uncertainty Axel Gelfert Abstract. When it comes to the public debate about the challenge of global climate change, moral questions are inextricably intertwined with epistemological ones. This manifests itself in at least two distinct ways. First, for a fixed set of epistemic standards, it may be irresponsible to delay policy- making until everyone agrees that such standards have been met. This has been extensively discussed in the literature on the precautionary principle. Second, key actors in the public debate may—for strategic reasons, or out of simple carelessness—engage in the selective variation of epistemic standards in response to evidence that would threaten to undermine their core beliefs, effectively leading to epistemic double standards that make rational agreement impossible. The latter scenario is aptly described as an instance of what Stephen Gardiner calls “epistemic corruption.” In the present paper, I aim to give an explanation of the cognitive basis of epistemic corruption and discuss its place within the moral landscape of the debate. In particular, I argue that epistemic corruption often reflects an agent’s attempt to reduce dissonance between incoming scientific evidence and the agent’s ideological core commitments. By selectively discounting the former, agents may attempt to preserve the coherence of the latter, yet in doing so they threaten to damage the integrity of evidence-based deliberation. -
Testimony Using the Term “Reasonable Scientific Certainty”
NATIONAL COMMISSION ON FORENSIC SCIENCE Testimony Using the Term “Reasonable Scientific Certainty” Subcommittee Reporting and Testimony Type of Work Product Views Document Statement of the Issue It is the view of the National Commission on Forensic Science (NCFS) that legal professionals should not require that forensic discipline testimony be admitted conditioned upon the expert witness testifying that a conclusion is held to a “reasonable scientific certainty,” a “reasonable degree of scientific certainty,” or a “reasonable degree of [discipline] certainty.” The legal community should recognize that medical professionals and other scientists do not routinely use “to a reasonable scientific certainty” when expressing conclusions outside of the courts. Such terms have no scientific meaning and may mislead factfinders [jurors or judges] when deciding whether guilt has been proved beyond a reasonable doubt. Forensic science service providers should not endorse or promote the use of this terminology. The Commission recognizes the right of each jurisdiction to determine admissibility standards but expresses this view as part of its mandate to “develop proposed guidance concerning the intersection of forensic science and the courtroom.” Forensics experts are often required to testify that the opinions or facts stated are offered “to a reasonable scientific certainty” or to a “reasonable degree of [discipline] certainty.” Outside of the courts, this phrasing is not routinely used in scientific disciplines, a point acknowledged in the Daubert decision (“it would be unreasonable to conclude that the subject of scientific testimony must be ‘known’ to a certainty; arguably, there are no certainties in science.”). Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharms., 509 U.S. 579, 590 (1993). -
The Matrix As an Introduction to Mathematics
St. John Fisher College Fisher Digital Publications Mathematical and Computing Sciences Faculty/Staff Publications Mathematical and Computing Sciences 2012 What's in a Name? The Matrix as an Introduction to Mathematics Kris H. Green St. John Fisher College, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://fisherpub.sjfc.edu/math_facpub Part of the Mathematics Commons How has open access to Fisher Digital Publications benefited ou?y Publication Information Green, Kris H. (2012). "What's in a Name? The Matrix as an Introduction to Mathematics." Mathematics in Popular Culture: Essays on Appearances in Film, Fiction, Games, Television and Other Media , 44-54. Please note that the Publication Information provides general citation information and may not be appropriate for your discipline. To receive help in creating a citation based on your discipline, please visit http://libguides.sjfc.edu/citations. This document is posted at https://fisherpub.sjfc.edu/math_facpub/18 and is brought to you for free and open access by Fisher Digital Publications at St. John Fisher College. For more information, please contact [email protected]. What's in a Name? The Matrix as an Introduction to Mathematics Abstract In my classes on the nature of scientific thought, I have often used the movie The Matrix (1999) to illustrate how evidence shapes the reality we perceive (or think we perceive). As a mathematician and self-confessed science fiction fan, I usually field questionselated r to the movie whenever the subject of linear algebra arises, since this field is the study of matrices and their properties. So it is natural to ask, why does the movie title reference a mathematical object? Of course, there are many possible explanations for this, each of which probably contributed a little to the naming decision. -
Investment Behaviors Under Epistemic Versus Aleatory Uncertainty
Investment Behaviors Under Epistemic versus Aleatory Uncertainty 2 Daniel J. Walters, Assistant Professor of Marketing, INSEAD Europe, Marketing Department, Boulevard de Constance, 77300 Fontainebleau, 01 60 72 40 00, [email protected] Gülden Ülkümen, Gülden Ülkümen, Associate Professor of Marketing at University of Southern California, 701 Exposition Boulevard, Hoffman Hall 516, Los Angeles, CA 90089- 0804, [email protected] Carsten Erner, UCLA Anderson School of Management, 110 Westwood Plaza, Los Angeles, CA, USA 90095-1481, [email protected] David Tannenbaum, Assistant Professor of Management, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA, (801) 581-8695, [email protected] Craig R. Fox, Harold Williams Professor of Management at the UCLA Anderson School of Management, Professor of Psychology and Medicine at UCLA, 110 Westwood Plaza #D511 Los Angeles, CA, USA 90095-1481, (310) 206-3403, [email protected] 3 Abstract In nine studies, we find that investors intuitively distinguish two independent dimensions of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty that they attribute to missing knowledge, skill, or information, versus aleatory uncertainty that they attribute to chance or stochastic processes. Investors who view stock market uncertainty as higher in epistemicness (knowability) are more sensitive to their available information when choosing whether or not to invest, and are more likely to reduce uncertainty by seeking guidance from experts. In contrast, investors who view stock market uncertainty as higher -
Al-Ghazali and Descartes from Doubt to Certainty: a Phenomenological Approach
AL-GHAZALI AND DESCARTES FROM DOUBT TO CERTAINTY: A PHENOMENOLOGICAL APPROACH Mohammad Alwahaib Abstract: This paper clarifies the philosophical connection between Al-Ghazali and Descartes, with the goal to articulate similarities and differences in their famous journeys from doubt to certainty. As such, its primary focus is on the chain of their reasoning, starting from their conceptions of truth and doubt arguments, until their arrival at truth. Both philosophers agreed on the ambiguous character of ordinary everyday knowledge and decided to set forth in undermining its foundations. As such, most scholars tend to agree that the doubt arguments used by Descartes and Al-Ghazali are similar, but identify their departures from doubt as radically different: while Descartes found his way out of doubt through the cogito and so reason, Al-Ghazali ended his philosophical journey as a Sufi in a sheer state of passivity, waiting for the truth to be revealed to him by God. This paper proves this is not the case. Under close textual scrutiny and through the use of basic Husserlian-phenomenological concepts, I show that Al-Ghazali's position was misunderstood, thus disclosing his true philosophic nature. I. Introduction This paper clarifies the philosophical relation between Al-Ghazali, a Muslim philosopher (1058--1111), and the French philosopher Rene Descartes (1596--1650), with the objective of articulating the similarities and differences in their famous journeys from doubt to certainty. Historical evidence on whether Descartes did in fact read or had knowledge of Al-Ghazali’s work will not be discussed in this paper. Instead, this paper focuses primarily on the chain of their reasoning, starting from their conceptions of truth and the arguments used by each to destroy or deconstruct the pillars of our knowledge and thus reach truth. -
Mathematical Scepticism: the Cartesian Approach Luciano Floridi
Mathematical Scepticism: the Cartesian Approach1 Luciano Floridi Wolfson College, Oxford, OX2 6UD, UK [email protected] - www.wolfson.ox.ac.uk/~floridi Introduction Paris, 15 February 1665: Molière’s Don Juan is first performed in the Palais-Royal Hall. Third Act, First Scene: the most daring of Don Juan’s intellectual adventures takes place. In a dialogue with his servant Sganarelle, Don Juan makes explicit his atheist philosophy: SGANARELLE. I want to get to the bottom of what you really think. Is it possible that you don’t believe in Heaven at all? D. JUAN. Let that question alone. SGANARELLE. That means you don’t. And Hell? D. JUAN. Enough. SGANARELLE. Ditto. What about the devil then? D. JUAN. Oh, of course. SGANARELLE. As little. Do you believe in an after life? D. JUAN. Ha! ha! ha! SGANARELLE. Here is a man I shall have a job to convert. […] SGANARELLE. But everybody must believe in something. What do you believe in? D. JUAN. What do I believe? SGANARELLE. Yes. D. JUAN. I believe that two and two make four, Sganarelle, and four and four make eight. SGANARELLE. That’s a fine thing to believe! What fine article of faith! Your religion is then nothing but arithmetic. Some people do have queer ideas in their heads, and those that have been educated are often the silliest. I never studied, thank God, and no one can boast he taught me anything. But, to my poor way of thinking, my eyes are better than books. I know very well that this world we see around us is not a mushroom grown up in a single night. -
On Certainty (Uber Gewissheit) Ed
Ludwig Wittgenstein On Certainty (Uber Gewissheit) ed. G.E.M.Anscombe and G.H.von Wright Translated by Denis Paul and G.E.M.Anscombe Basil Blackwell, Oxford 1969-1975 Preface What we publish here belongs to the last year and a half of Wittgenstein's life. In the middle of 1949 he visited the United States at the invitation of Norman Malcolm, staying at Malcolm's house in Ithaca. Malcolm acted as a goad to his interest in Moore's 'defence of common sense', that is to say his claim to know a number of propositions for sure, such as "Here is one hand, and here is another", and "The earth existed for a long time before my birth", and "I have never been far from the earth's surface". The first of these comes in Moore's 'Proof of the External World'. The two others are in his 'Defence of Common Sense'; Wittgenstein had long been interested in these and had said to Moore that this was his best article. Moore had agreed. This book contains the whole of what Wittgenstein wrote on this topic from that time until his death. It is all first-draft material, which he did not live to excerpt and polish. The material falls into four parts; we have shown the divisions at #65, #192, #299. What we believe to be the first part was written on twenty loose sheets of lined foolscap, undated. These Wittgenstein left in his room in G.E.M.Anscombe's house in Oxford, where he lived (apart from a visit to Norway in the autumn) from April 1950 to February 1951. -
The Flaw of Averages)
THE NEED FOR GREATER REFLECTION OF HETEROGENEITY IN CEA or (The fLaw of averages) Warren Stevens PhD CONFIDENTIAL © 2018 PAREXEL INTERNATIONAL CORP. Shimmering Substance Jackson Pollock, 1946. © 2018 PAREXEL INTERNATIONAL CORP. / 2 CONFIDENTIAL 1 Statistical summary of Shimmering Substance Jackson Pollock, 1946. Average color: Brown [Beige-Black] Average position of brushstroke © 2018 PAREXEL INTERNATIONAL CORP. / 3 CONFIDENTIAL WE KNOW DATA ON EFFECTIVENESS IS FAR MORE COMPLEX THAN WE LIKE TO REPRESENT IT n Many patients are better off with the comparator QALYS gained © 2018 PAREXEL INTERNATIONAL CORP. / 4 CONFIDENTIAL 2 A THOUGHT EXPERIMENT CE threshold Mean CE Mean CE treatment treatment #1 #2 n Value of Value of Cost per QALY treatment treatment #2 to Joe #1 to Bob © 2018 PAREXEL INTERNATIONAL CORP. / 5 CONFIDENTIAL A THOUGHT EXPERIMENT • Joe is receiving a treatment that is cost-effective for him, but deemed un cost-effective by/for society • Bob is receiving an treatment that is not cost-effective for him, but has been deemed cost-effective by/for society • So who’s treatment is cost-effective? © 2018 PAREXEL INTERNATIONAL CORP. / 6 CONFIDENTIAL 3 HYPOTHETICALLY THERE ARE AS MANY LEVELS OF EFFECTIVENESS (OR COST-EFFECTIVENESS) AS THERE ARE PATIENTS What questions or uncertainties stop us recognizing this basic truth in scientific practice? 1. Uncertainty (empiricism) – how do we gauge uncertainty in a sample size of 1? avoiding false positives 2. Policy – how do we institute a separate treatment policy for each and every individual? 3. Information (data) – how we do make ‘informed’ decisions without the level of detail required in terms of information (we know more about populations than we do about people) © 2018 PAREXEL INTERNATIONAL CORP. -
Value in Experience, Thoughts on Radical Empiricism; Reflections on Frankenberry and Stone1
Value In Experience, Thoughts on Radical Empiricism; Reflections on Frankenberry and Stone1 David W. Tarbell Modern philosophy, going back to Descartes and Locke, has given preferred status to the kind of judgments that we find within the mathematical sciences and has made it difficult to support judgments of value and meaning. In Chapter Four of his book, The Minimalist Vision of Transcendence, Jerome Stone describes what he calls a "Generous Empiricism." He is building on the tradition of radical empiricism, and presents a transactional understanding of experience that allows him to support empirically grounded value judgments. I argue that a critique from the perspective of Heidegger and others of the continental tradition may present problems to Stone's approach. I then propose a modification of Stone's notion that I think would answer such criticisms. This leads me to the notion that our value judgments have an aesthetic component, and that we can find pragmatic support for the belief that there is an aesthetic tendency in the world of which we are a part. There is something divine and possibly transcendent in that thought. I. The Value Problem: One of the factors affecting the moral, ethical, and political climate of our present culture is diversity of judgment on matters of value. Some have said that the presence of so much diversity argues against our ability to resolve questions of truth in these areas. Their positions vary among skepticism, denying that we can know moral truth, nihilism, questioning that there is such a thing as moral truth, or relativism, claiming that moral truth is conditional on social and/or cultural circumstances. -
BEFORE the PHILOSOPHY There Are Several Ways That We Might Explain the Location of the Matrix
ONE BEFORE THE 7 PHILOSOPHY UNDERSTANDING THE FILMS BEFORE THE PHILOSOPHY I’m really struggling here. I’m trying to keep up, but I’m losing the plot. There is way too much weird shit going on around here and nothing is going the way it is supposed to go. I mean, doors that go nowhere and everywhere, programs acting like humans, multiplying agents . Oh when, when will it end? – SparksE The Matrix films often left audiences more confused than they had bargained for. Some say that their confusion began with the very first film, and was compounded with each sequel. Others understood the big picture, but found themselves a bit perplexed concerning the details. It’s safe to say that no one understands the films completely – there are always deeper levels to consider. So before we explore the more philosophical aspects of the films, I hope to clarify some of the common points of confusion. But first, I strongly encourage you to watch all three films. There are spoilers ahead. The Matrix Dreamworld You mean this isn’t real? – Neo† The Matrix is essentially a computer-generated dreamworld. It is the illusion of a world that no longer exists – a world of human technology and culture as it was at the end of the twentieth century. This illusion is pumped into the brains of millions of people who, in reality, are lying fast asleep in slime-filled cocoons. To them this virtual world seems like real life. They go to work, watch their televisions, and pay their taxes, fully believing that they are physically doing these things, when in fact they are doing them “virtually” – within their own minds.