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Technology│China│May 28, 2019

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Technology│China│May 28, 2019 Sector Note Technology│China│May 28, 2019 China Technology - Overall Insert China’s semi industry – Entrusted with a mission ■ Chine semi-related names outperformed other hardware names after the US put Huawei on the BIS Entity List on 17 May 2019. ■ Rebuilding the supply chain is expected to offer growth opportunities for local semi names with strong R&D capability. ■ The start of Science & Technology Innovation Board (S&T Board) in the near term is expected to boost sentiment on the listed (both HK & A-share) China semi names. ■ The market will focus on both the design and manufacturing segments at this stage, but upstream names, especially in the materials segment, will gain market attention. ■ We have updated the industry value chain and major players in China. The acquisitions made by A-share-listed names will attract market attention to the sector. We still prefer SMIC [0981.HK] over Hua Hong [1347.HK]. Shanghai Fudan’s [1385.HK] FPGA development makes it interesting to investors. China’s semi industry expected to become the market focus again China’s semi industry was a major investment theme after the Chinese government released policies to boost the development of the industry, especially through the direct participation of the China IC fund. However, because of weakness in downstream demand, global semi names, including HK- and A-share-listed names, were somewhat out of favour and under selling pressure in 2018. After the US Department of Commerce added Huawei Technologies Co Ltd (Huawei) and 70 affiliates to the BIS Entity List earlier this month, the China semi industry became the market focus again. There is no doubt that China semi names have been laggards compared to their global peers, owing partly to barriers to access to advanced technology and processes, and the effect on the supply chain. However, the escalating trade tension between China and the US is expected to result in a rebuilding of global electronics supply in China. We believe that China is more determined to build a local supply chain, especially its semi industry, with capacity moving out from China by both Chinese and non-Chinese companies. The rebuilding of the global supply chain will offer a huge growth opportunity for local semi names. Given the increasing demand for semiconductor products and low self-sufficiency rate, the Chinese government is actively promoting the local semiconductor industry value chain to reduce dependence on overseas companies. We can’t rule out the possibility that the Chinese government will release policies to boost the development of the local semi industry. The China IC fund has been a major investor in China’s local semiconductor companies. It can work as a collaboration coordinator among local semi names to navigate through the challenging environment. In general, China’s semiconductor industry can be grouped into four categories: a) upstream, which includes mainly materials and equipment; b) fabless and design companies; c) midstream companies, which are manufacturers, especially foundries; and d) downstream companies, which focus mainly on packaging and testing. Capital activity expected to gain market attention The semiconductor industry is a key focus, as companies along the supply chain (raw materials, IC design and foundries) have filed applications for IPOs on the S&T Board. Of these, National Silicon Industry Group Co. Ltd. (semiconductor materials), Montage Technology Co., Ltd. (IC design) and Hejian Technology (semiconductor foundry) are sizable IPOs on the S&T Board. Based on latest news flow, the listing committee will evaluate the IPO of Anji Microelectronics in early Jun 2019. In our view, the kick-off of trading activity on the S&T Board should offer opportunities for HK-listed TMT names, including semi names by a) unlocking value through spin-offs, b) dual-listings, and c) valuation benchmarks. Acquisitions by Unigroup Guoxin [002049.CH], WingTech Technologies [600745.CH] and Will Semi [603501.CH] will attract market attention to the sector, as the acquisition targets are leading players in their respective industries. Foundries expected to continue to outperform in the near term Since most listed companies in Hong Kong focus on manufacturing, foundries, especially SMIC and Hua Hong, will remain the focus of the market regarding China’s semi industry Analysts investment theme. Investors are likely to turn their attention increasingly to other semiconductor-related markets, like fabless, and testing and packaging, so we provide an Alex Li update on the industry value chain and major players in China. We still prefer SMIC over T 3698 6256 Hua Hong, as SMIC is migrating to a more advanced node to narrow the gap between E [email protected] the leading players. The market is looking at N+1 technology as a game changer for Mark Po SMIC. Shanghai Fudan’s FPGA development makes it looking interesting to investors, as T (852) 3698 6318 FPGA is one of the sub-segments which is controlled mostly by overseas players such as E [email protected] Xilinx and Intel. Wong Chi Man T (852) 3698 6317 E [email protected] Powered by the EFA Platform Technology│China Technology - Overall│May 28, 2019 KEY CHARTS China is a major importer of semis US$m Imports Value YoY Growth China reported strong growth in imports of semis in the past 350,000 80% several years, but reported a YoY drop of 6.5% in Jan–Apr 2019. 300,000 60% 250,000 40% 200,000 20% 150,000 0% 100,000 50,000 -20% 0 -40% 2011-10 2012-02 2013-02 2013-06 2014-06 2014-10 2015-10 2016-02 2017-06 2017-10 2018-10 2019-02 2011-06 2012-06 2012-10 2013-10 2014-02 2015-02 2015-06 2016-06 2016-10 2017-02 2018-02 2018-06 Fast-growing IC design segment RMB bn Sales YoY Growth China’s IC design sub-segment reported a CAGR of 27.4% 300.0 60% in 2010–2018. 250.0 50% 200.0 40% 150.0 30% 100.0 20% 50.0 10% 0.0 0% 2005 2006 2007 2010 2011 2014 2015 2018 2004 2008 2009 2012 2013 2016 2017 Manufacturing reported steady growth Sales YoY Growth The manufacturing segment, including foundries, reported 200.0 40% steady turnover at a CAGR of 19.2% in 2010–2018. 180.0 160.0 30% 140.0 20% 120.0 100.0 10% 80.0 60.0 0% 40.0 -10% 20.0 0.0 -20% OSAT reported the slowest growth RMB bn Sales YoY Growth The OSAT segment reported slower turnover at a CAGR of 250.0 60% 18.9% in 2010–2018. 50% 200.0 40% 30% 150.0 20% 10% 100.0 0% 50.0 -10% -20% 0.0 -30% 2004 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2016 2017 2018 SOURCES:WIND, HIS, CGIS RESEARCH, COMPANY DATA, BLOOMBERG 2 Semi* Thinkon Hikvision Hikvision [002415.CH] SinoWealth [300327.CH] Espressif* ASMC Hisense Hisense Microelectronics [600360.CH] Microelectronics [600060.CH] - Giantec* Sino [000670.CH] Infotmic Infotmic Co., Bright Bright Power* & OppO Vivo Montage* [600171.CH] Shanghai Belling TCL TCL Crop [000100.CH] Amlogic* Figure Figure [300613.CH] Huatian Technology [002185.CH] Technology Huatian Shanghai Fullhan [3393.HK] [1385.HK] Wasion Group Shanghai Fudan 1 HeJian* : China GoldPac [3315.HK] ’s [002049.CH] Guoxin Micro Guoxin s emi emi supply chain supply TRANSSION* Gigadevice Gigadevice [603986.CH] TongFu [002156.CH] TongFu Foundry Lenovo Downstream [0992.HK] CE Huada [0085.HK] Fabless and IC design Fabless Packaging and Testing and Packaging [1810.HK] Dawning [603019.CH] [600703.CH] Hua Hong [1347.HK] Hong Hua Technology Technology Technology San'an Optoelec Xiaomi Chang Chuan [300604.CH] Chuan Chang Goodix Huawei [603160.CH] All Winnder All [300458.CH] │ - Overall China Datang Indenic │ [600198.CH] TPV [0903.HK]TPV [300223.CH] Wafer Wafer Level May May 3 China ZTE ZTE 2 8 [0763.HK] [0763.HK] , 2019 , SMIC [0981.HK] SMIC SOURCES: SOURCES: TCLE Bitmain Hisilicon (Huawei) [1070.HK] SPRD/RDA (Under Qinghua Unigroup) Qinghua (Under SPRD/RDA • COMPANY DATA, JCET [600584.CHK] JCET RAD Ingenic Science & Technology Innvoation Board IPOs Board Innvoation Technology & Science Skyworth [0751.HK] Spreadtrum Spreadtrum [300223.CH] *: SPRD/RDA (Under Qinghua Unigroup) Qinghua (Under SPRD/RDA • CGIS RESEARCH,CGIS BLOOMBERG DATA, COMPANY Fabrication* Fabrication* - Electronics Co., Ltd.* Co., Electronics - Equipment Equipment Materials & Materials National Silicon* Silicon* National JPT Opto JPT Advanced Micro Advanced Anji Microelectronics* Anji Konfoong Materials [300666.CH] Materials Konfoong ACM Research [AMCR.US] Research ACM Pentamaster [1665.HK] Pentamaster Wuhan Jingce Electronic [300567.CH] Electronic Jingce Wuhan Silan [600460.CH]Silan Electrical [300136.CH] Electrical Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Mechanical Jingsheng Zhejiang PNC Process [603690.CH] Process PNC Naura Technology [002371.CH] Technology Naura Shannan Circuits [002916.CH] Circuits Shannan Shanghai Sinyang [300236.CH] Sinyang Shanghai Grinm Semi Material [600206.CH] Material Semi Grinm Hans Laser [002008.CH] Laser Hans ASM Pacific [522.HK] Pacific ASM 2022 2H 2022 1H 7nm (N+1)? 2021 2H 8nm (N+1)? 8nm 2021 1H Figure 2 : 2020 Technology roadmap of leading foundries roadmap of leading Technology 12nm? 2H 2020 5nm 5nm EUV 5nm 1H 10nm FinFET 10nm 2019 7nm FFC 7nm 14nm FF 14nm 2H 2019 7nm EUV 7nm 1H 28nm HPC+ 28nm Technology Technology Technology 2018 PolySiON 7nm 2H 28nm HKC+ 28nm 22nm ULP HKMG ULP 22nm 28nm │ - Overall China 2018 8nm 7nm FF 7nm 1H │ May May 4 2 8 , 2019 , SOURCES: SOURCES: 2017 2H WWW.DIGITIEMS.COM 2017 10nm FF 10nm 1H 14nm FinFET 14nm 2016 10nm 2H , CGIS RESEARCH, COMPANY DATA, RESEARCH,CGIS COMPANY BLOOMBERG 2016 40nm 16nm FF+ 16nm 1H 28nm HKMG 28nm 28nm PolySiON 28nm 14nm FinFET 14nm UMC Huali SMIC TSMC Samsung Global foundries Global Technology│China Technology - Overall│May 28, 2019 Semiconductor industry overview China’s share of the worldwide semiconductor industry is continuing to grow and become significant.
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