South – Weekly Market Prices vam May 2021 food security analysis

Highlights

• Since the last week of April, South Sudanese Pound (SSP) to United States Dollar (USD) was exchanged in parallel market within 440 to 490 across monitored markets. In , the average exchange rate stood at 463 SSP, appreciation of 23% against April 2021. However, appreciation of SSP against USD has not brought immediate affect on retail prices of food commodities, as traders had purchased the existing stock at a higher rate, and it takes time to adjust till new supplies delivered at the prevailing exchange rate. Juba City Council made efforts to regulate retail prices in Juba markets in the 1st week of May, following changes in the exchange rates, but without success.

• In May, the weekly retail prices remained stable but high for most staple food commodities. A combination of factors including relatively improved security along the major trade routes, appreciation of SSP, the ongoing WFP food distributions, improvement of supplies from Sudan, and traders stocking shops with enough food ahead of rainy season have contributed to an observed stability in prices, despite the progression of the lean season.

• Retail prices of red beans and cowpeas were stable but high in many of WFP’s reference markets while mixed prices behavior observed in some markets. For instance, price of red beans decreased in Akobo, Gokmachar and , but increased in Bunji, Wanjok and . Red beans are the preferred pulse across households; however, a kilogram of red beans was 1.4 times more expensive on average than cowpeas.

• Livestock to sorghum terms of trade (ToT) varied across the markets. On average, a medium-sized goat was exchanged for an equivalent of 85 kilograms of cereals. However, the ToT were lower than average in Kuajok, , , Gokmachar, Rubkona, Wau, Yida and Mingkaman markets. In major urban centers such as Juba, Aweil and Bor, where the demand for meat is relatively high, the terms of trade were above or equal to the average value. 1 – Weekly Market Prices vam May 2021 food security analysis

Exchange Rate Behavior In February 2021, the government of South Sudan introduced a new banknote worth 1,000 SSP, the highest denomination in the market, in order to cope with the hyperinflation. According to the Central Bank of South Sudan the new SSP bill will not only improve the efficiency of individual transactions but will also bring about efficiency in the printing of the currency generating savings for the country. In April 2021, the government auctioned US dollars 3 million in a bid to revive the declining economy. The approval led to appreciation of SSP in parallel markets and narrowed the gaps between the parallel and official indicative exchange rates.

In May, South Sudanese Pound to United States dollar exchanged within 440 to 490 Exchange rate in the parallel market, Juba (SSP/US $) across all monitored markets. In Juba, a US dollar to SSP exchanged at 463,about 700 23% appreciation as compared to April 2021. In May, the official indicative 600 exchange rate was revolving around 421 SSP to US dollar, depreciation of 36%, 500 as compared to end of March 2021. Given the fact that traders had stocks of food 400 purchased at higher rate, the appreciation of SSP in the parallel market has not led 300 to drop in retail prices. Retail prices of staple food items are expected to drop, 200 though not proportional to exchange rate appreciation, as new supplies are 100 - imported at the prevailing exchange rate, but subject to stability of prices in Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec source markets. 5YR AVG 2020 2021

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Week-to-week price variations: May vs April retail prices

Overall, retail prices of staple cereals were stable, but remained high, in many monitored markets. A combination of factors such improved security along the trade routes, appreciation of SSP, the ongoing WFP food distributions, increase of supplies from Sudan and traders stocking food items ahead of rainy season have all contributed to the observed price stability, despite the progresses of the lean season. During the weeks of May, prices of sorghum (local and imported) slightly decreased in Aniet (6% to16%), Aweil (6%), Gokmachar (6% to17%), Kuajok (10%) and Nyamlell (11% to17%), as compared to the same period in April 2021. The price of white maize grain also slightly decreased in Wau (8%), Kapoeta (14%), and Nyamlell (6%) and the price of rice also decreased in Akobo (15%), Bentiu (6%), Mingkaman (14%) and (6%). By contrast, the prices of sorghum (local and imported) increased in the first two weeks of May in Juba (22%), Wanjok (9%), Yida (8% to 25%), Mingkaman (20%) and Melut (60%), as compared to the same period in April 2021, which can possibly be attributed to lean season and supply shortage that will be expected to continue until the first harvest around July 2021. In some areas, an increase in the prices of basic commodities in the second week of May was also attributed to Eid-Al-Fetir festivity, as well as taxes and levies and inaccessibility of some areas due to bad roads condition. The price of white maize grain increased in Yambio (13%), Malakal (10% to 25%) and Juba (20%). The price of rice increased in the first two weeks of May in Aniet (15% and 28%), Gokmachar (15%and 40%), Malakal (10% and 25%), Nyamlell (7%) and Yambio (25% and 30%), as compared to the same period during April 2021. During the same period, there was also an increase in prices of fuels and transport cost that triggered further increase in retail prices. A malua (3.5kgs) of white sorghum fetched the lowest price in Bunji, at 250 SSP.

Retail prices of maize meal, wheat flour and sorghum flour were relatively stable, with few markets (wheat flour) experiencing mixed and slight changes, as compared to the same period in April 2021. For instance, prices of maize flour increased in the first two weeks of May in Suk-Shabi (8%), Yambio (43%), Bentiu (14%), Rubkona (14%) and Torit (17%), as compared to the same period in April 2021, but decreased in Wau (6%), Kapoeta (20%) and Mingkaman (20% to 40%). The price of wheat flour subsequently increased in Akobo (56%), Gokmacher (14% to 23%), Melut (25%), Yambio (16%) due to shortage of supply, but decreased in Wau (16%), Kapoeta (10%), Makpandu (13%) and Mingkaman (45%) attributed to increase in supply from Sudan. Price of sorghum flour remained relatively stable as compared to the same period in April 2021, increasing only in Aweil (10%) and Melut (45%) and decreasing in Nyamlell (33%) and in Torit (13%). 3 South Sudan – Weekly Market Prices vam May 2021 food security analysis

Week-to-week price variations: May vs April retail prices

The prices of pulses also remained the same in most reference markets.

Red beans and cowpeas are partly produced locally and partially imported from Uganda. Red beans are the preferred pulse across households; however, it is very expensive compared to cowpeas. During May, a kilogram of red beans, on average, costed an equivalent of 1.4 kilograms of cowpeas – leading many income constrained households to resort to cowpeas. On average, a kilogram of red beans sold at 870 SSP and cowpeas at 632 SSP. During May, retail prices of red beans remained stable in many of WFP’s reference markets. However, when compared with the same period in April 2021, the price of red beans decreased in Akobo (15%), Gokmachar (10%) and Torit (13%) but increased in Bunji (20%), Wanjok (17%) and Yambio (15%). The lean season and supply shortage are the main reasons behind most of such fluctuations. 4 South Sudan – Weekly Market Prices vam May 2021 food security analysis

Week-to-week price variations: May vs April Retail prices

Prices of imported food such as vegetable oil and sugar remained high with mixed behavior in most of the monitored markets.

The weekly market prices of vegetable oil remained relatively stable but high in most of the monitored markets. A price of cooking oil increased in Bunj (25%), Melut (33%), Makpandu (20%), Aniet (27%) and Aweil (20%) mostly due to Eid-Al-Fetir festivity and the lean season, but decreased in Wau (15%), Mingkaman (40%) and Yambio (25%). On average, a liter of vegetable oil was exchanged at 1430 SSP. The price of sugar decreased in most of WFP monitored markets except in Malakal, Melut and Yabmio, where the price increased by about 10%, as compared to the same period in April 2021. Price of sugar remain unchanged in Kuajok, Juba and Wanjok. During May, a kilogram of sugar costed, on average, 680 SSP.

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Terms of Trade: Goat to cereal terms of trade: During weeks of May, the terms of trade between medium-sized goat and white sorghum remained stable in most of the monitored markets but dropped in Aniet (13%), Kapoeta (18%), Bentiu (22%), Yida (15%) and Makpandu (10%), as compared to the same period in April 2021, attributed to deteriorating animals body conditions and decrease in prices of goats. ToT increased in Wau (3%), Juba (11%) and Kuajok (11%) due to surge in demand due to Eid-Al- Fetir festivity and hence increase in the prices of goats and stable food prices. By contrast, the deterioration in ToT were due to substantially reduced in goat prices linked to deterioration in body conditions owning to constraints in accessing quality palatable in some areas such as Kapoeta South. On average, medium-sized goat exchanged equivalent to 85 kilograms of cereals during the month, a decrease of about 10 kilograms of cereals as compared in April 2021. Markets having terms of trade below the average terms of trade were Bentiu, Gokmachar, Wau, Kapoeta, Kuajok, Malakal, Mingkaman, Rubkona and Yida. In Major urban centers such as Juba, Aweil and Bor, where the demand for meat is relatively high, the terms of trade were somehow above or on the average value.

Wage to cereal terms of trade: In weeks of May, the purchasing power of daily labor dependent households deteriorated in Bentiu (8%), Juba (15%), Rubkona (4%) and Yida (8%), as compared to the same period in April 2021, due to increased cost of white sorghum and stable wage rates. A long term sustained economic crisis coupled with the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, resulted negatively on job opportunities across markets. As a result, about 43% of reference markets had below average terms of trade for the month (6.1 kilograms; about 0.2 kilograms less), as compared to April 2021. Markets with below average terms of trade were Bentiu, Bor, Bunj, Kuajok, Malakal, Mingkaman, Rubkona, Malakal, and Yida. Though the terms of trade remained the same in major urban centers such as Aniet, Juba, Wau and Aweil had terms of trade above 6.1 kilograms. 6 South Sudan – Weekly Market Prices vam May 2021 food security analysis

Price trends - as compared to 2020 and to the five-year average

The exchange rate between South Sudanese Pound (SSP) and US dollar (US$) in the parallel market significantly appreciated, on average from 620 SSP to 420 SSP per US dollar , slowly approaching the official rate in the fourth week of April, following the government approval of US $ 3 million to the forex Bureau. However, food prices in terms of local currency remained expensive, as traders were selling from their stock purchased while the exchange rate per US dollar was about 620 SSP. Effective changes in retail prices could take some time to adjust, as compared to substantial change in exchange rate . In fact, for instance, during the weeks of April, the retail prices of white sorghum rose by 25 % to 50% in Juba and 15% to 30% in Yida, as compared to the same period in March, since the lean season peaked in the first and second week of April and road ambushes hit the main two supplier corridors to Juba markets. Moreover, the prices rose by more than 50% in Juba and about 160% in Wau, as compared to the same period a year ago. Likewise, the prices of red beans and vegetable oil magnificently increased across markets. Households with incomes either remained fixed or reduced are the most affected groups by increase in food prices.

In the last five years, prices of goods sharply increased across markets forcing households to spend more and more of their income on foods and leaving little for basic non-food items. Compared to the five-year average, white sorghum prices increased the least in Bor, by 175% and the most in Yida, by 324%. Likewise, maize grain prices increased at an alarming rate in Greater Equatoria markets; Kapoeta (116%), Juba (215%) and Torit (217%), where maize is the preferred and widely consumed cereals. As compared to five-year average, prices of goat rose in all reference markets. However, the disproportionate rise in cereal prices absorbed the change in goat prices and limited the terms of trade to improve. On average, goat to white sorghum terms of trade dropped from 126 to 80 kilograms, representing 36% deterioration. Similarly, the average wage to white sorghum terms of trade dropped from 7 to 6.5 kilograms, 8% deterioration.

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Trends of white sorghum (feterita) price in Juba, Trends of white sorghum (feterita) in Mingkaman, Trends of white sorghum (feterita) price in Wau, SSP/3.5Kg SSP/3.5Kg SSP/3.5Kg 1800 1200 1600 2000 1000 1400 800 1500 1200 1000 600 1000 800 400 600 500 200 400 0 0 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016-2020 AVG 2020 2021 2016-2020 AVG 2020 2021 2016-2020 AVG 2020 2021 Trends of red beans (janjaro) price in Wau, SSP/Kg Trends of red beans price in Juba, SSP/Kg Trends of red beans price in Aweil, SSP/Kg 1200 1200 1200 1000 1000 1000 800 800 800 600 600 600 400 400 400 200 200 200

0 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

#REF! 2020 2021 2016-2020 AVG 2020 2021 2016-2020 Average 2020 2021

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Table a. Juba May weekly retail prices vs April retail prices

% changes as compared with March weekly Prices MAY W1 vs MAY W2 vs MAY W3 vs MAY W4 vs Cereals Units May-W1 May-W2 May-W3 May-w4 APR W1 APR W2 APR W3 APR W4 Maize Flour KG 500 500 500 500 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sorghum Flour KG 500 500 500 500 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 White sorghum (feterita) 3.5 KG 1500 1500 1500 1500 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 White Sorghum (Local) 3.5 KG 1500 1500 1500 1500 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Brown Sorghum (Local) 3.5 KG 1500 1500 1500 1500 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 White maize (Grain) 3.5 KG 1200 1500 1200 1200 0.00 25.00 -20.00 0.00 Wheat flour KG 750 800 750 750 0.00 6.67 -6.25 0.00 Rice KG 800 800 800 800 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other Food 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cowpea 3.5 KG 4000 4000 4000 4000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Foul el masri (broad beans) KG 1500 1000 1500 1500 0.00 -33.33 50.00 0.00 Beans (janjaro) KG 903 1000 903 903 0.00 10.74 -9.70 0.00 Meat (Beef) KG 3000 3000 3000 3000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sugar KG 500 500 500 500 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Vegetable Oil L 1500 1500 1500 1500 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Salt KG 300 300 300 300 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Terms of Trade Goat to white sorghum #of malua 175 186.7 175 175 0.00 6.67 -6.25 0.00 Wage to white sorghum # of malua 6.07 6.07 6.07 6.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Goat Head 75000 80000 75000 75000 0.00 6.67 -6.25 0.00 Wage Daily 2600 2600 2600 2600 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Exchange rate 450 450 450 450 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

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Table b. Weekly Retail Prices; Fourth week of May 2021

Cereals Units Awiel Wau Kapoeta Kuajok Mingkaman Yida Aniet Yambio Maize Flour KG 320 400 450 400 600 400 Sorghum Flour KG 550 330 White sorghum (feterita) 3.5 KG 750 1100 900 1700 1000 800 White Sorghum (Local) 3.5 KG 850 1200 1100 900 Brown Sorghum(Local) 3.5 KG 750 1200 950 1900 1100 White maize (Grain) 3.5 KG 1100 700 900 Wheat flour KG 550 500 450 600 650 750 800 700 Rice KG 700 800 600 650 600 1000 850 650 Other Food Cowpea 3.5 KG 1300 1600 2000 2800 700 3400 2200 Foul el masri (broad beans) KG 850 900 950 850 1500 1150 800 Beans (janjaro) KG 850 1000 800 700 800 Meat (Beef) KG 1100 2400 1500 1000 2000 1200 1200 2000 Sugar KG 550 500 800 650 600 750 600 800 Vegetable Oil L 1100 1000 1300 1100 1200 1200 1300 2500 Salt KG 400 300 400 380 450 500 340 500 Terms of Trade Goat to white sorghum #of malua 84.0 43.0 56.4 49.4 70.0 122.5 39 Wage to white sorghum # of malua 11.7 9.5 3.9 4.1 2.6 6.6 4 Goat Head 18000 13500 17500 14500 24000 20000 28000 35000 Wage Daily 2500 3000 0 1000 2000 750 1500 4000 Exchange rate 460 450 480 460 460 450 480 470

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Table c. Week-to-week comparison – 4th week of May vs 4th week of April 2021 (%)

Cereals Units Awiel Wau Kapoeta Kuajok Mingkaman Yida Maize Flour KG -9 -20 0 -20 0 Sorghum Flour KG -8 0 White sorghum (feterita) 3.5 KG -17 -8 -10 13 11 White Sorghum (Local) 3.5 KG -6 0 10 Brown Sorghum(Local) 3.5 KG -17 -14 -5 27 10 White maize (Grain) 3.5 KG -8 0 Wheat flour KG -8 -17 -10 0 -46 0 Rice KG 0 0 0 0 -14 0 Other Food Cowpea 3.5 KG -7 0 -29 0 Foul el masri (broad beans) KG -15 0 -100 0 -15 0 Beans (janjaro) KG -15 0 0 Meat (Beef) KG -45 0 0 0 0 0 Sugar KG -8 -9 0 0 -14 0 Vegetable Oil L -21 -17 0 0 -40 0 Salt KG 0 0 0 0 -36 0 Terms of Trade Goat to white sorghum #of malua 3 9 11 -15 -10 Wage to white sorghum # of malua 50 9 11 -12 -10 Goat Head -14 0 -5 0 -4 0 Wage Daily 25 0 0 0 0 Exchange rate SSP/US $ -15 -2 -17 2 2 0 11 South Sudan – Weekly Market Prices vam May 2021 food security analysis

Table d. Week-to-week comparison – 4th week of May vs 3rd week of May (%) Cereals Units Aweil Wau Kapoeta Kuajok Mingkaman Yida Maize Flour KG -3.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sorghum Flour KG 0.00 0.00 White sorghum (feterita) 3.5 KG -6.25 -8.33 0.00 6.25 11.11 White Sorghum (Local) 3.5 KG 0.00 0.00 22.22 Brown Sorghum(Local) 3.5 KG -6.25 -14.29 0.00 5.56 10.00 White maize (Grain) 3.5 KG 0.00 16.67 -100.00 Wheat flour KG 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 Rice KG 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other Food Cowpea 3.5 KG -7.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Foul el masri (broad beans) KG -5.56 0.00 0.00 6.25 0.00 Beans (janjaro) KG -5.56 0.00 0.00 Meat (Beef) KG 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sugar KG 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 Vegetable Oil L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -14.29 Salt KG 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Terms of Trade Goat to white sorghum #of malua 3.78 9.09 0.00 -5.88 5.88 Wage to white sorghum # of malua 33.33 9.09 0.00 -5.88 -10.00 Goat Head -2.70 0.00 2.94 0.00 0.00 17.65 Wage Daily 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Exchange rate 0.00 -2.17 2.13 0.00 0.00 -4.26

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