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World Bank Document Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized SOCIAL PROTECTION IN FRAGILE AND CONFLICT-AFFECTED COUNTRIES: TRENDS AND Public Disclosure Authorized CHALLENGES Public Disclosure Authorized SOCIAL PROTECTION IN FRAGILE AND CONFLICT- AFFECTED COUNTRIES: TRENDS AND CHALLENGES Mirey Ovadiya Adea Kryeziu Syeda Masood Eric Zapatero © 2015 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. Photos: Copyright © Andrea Borgarello/World Bank Cover design/layout and editing: Nita Congress CONTENTS Acknowledgments v Abbreviations vi 1 Introduction 1 2 Basic Concepts 3 Social Protection 4 Characteristics of Fragility 6 Fragile States 7 Fragility and Poverty 7 3 Arriving at a Typology 9 4 Trends and Findings 15 Objectives 16 Programming Choices 17 Coverage 20 Expenditures 24 Delivery Mechanisms 27 5 Highlights of Program Delivery 31 6 Conclusions 37 iii iv S OCIAL PROTECTION in FRAGILE and CONFLICT- AFFECTED COUNTRIES: TRENDS and CHALLENGES Bibliography 41 Boxes 3.1: Classification of Fragile and Conflict-Affected Countries 11 4.1: Evaluation Results for the Yemeni Social Fund for Development 29 Figures 2.1: Moving from Fragility to Institutional Resilience, Security, Justice, and Jobs 5 2.2: Characteristics of Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations 6 2.3: Share of the World’s Poor Living in 3.1: Typology of Fragile and Conflict-Affected States 10 4.1: Total Number of Social Assistance Programs in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Countries, by Program Type 18 4.2: Average coverage of Social Assistance Programs in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Countries, by Program Type 19 4.3: Social Assistance and Social Insurance Coverage in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Countries, as a Percentage of Total Population 22 4.4: Social Assistance and Social Insurance Coverage, as a Percentage of the Poorest Quintile 23 4.5: Social Insurance Expenditures in Selected Fragile and Conflict-Affected Countries as a Percentage of GDP 26 4.6: Safety Net Spending as a Percentage of GDP in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Countries 28 Tables 4.1: Benefit Incidence of Social Protection in Poorest Quintile in Selected Fragile and Conflict-Affected Countries (%) 21 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS his paper has benefited from valu- Junko Onishi, Stefano Paternostro, Nicola able advice and guidance from Lucy Pontara, Lucian Pop, Anita Schwarz, Victoria Bassett, Carine Clert, Aylin Isik Dik- Strokova, John Van Dyck, Michael Weber, melik, Ugo Gentilini, Samira Ahmed Emily Weedon, Ruslan Yemtsov, Giuseppe THillis, Matthew Hobson, Mira Hong, Kelly Zampaglione, and Yongmei Zhou. It was Johnson, Alex Kamurase, Cem Mete, Mont- developed under the overall guidance of serrat Pallares Miralles, Matthew Norton, Anush Bezhanyan. v Abbreviations ASPIRE Atlas of Social Protection—Indicators of Resilience and Equity CPIA Country Policy and Institutional Assessment GDP gross domestic product PMT proxy means testing 1 INTRODUCTION his discussion paper is the first output objectives in these countries, reflects on under the umbrella of the program- their revealed objectives, and discusses pro- matic work on social protection in gramming options chosen to achieve those fragile and conflict-affected states. objectives as well as how several countries TThis work aims to develop operational guid- have overcome particular operational and ance to teams on the likely determinants of capacity constraints. effective social protection programming and policy making in fragile and conflict-affected It is important to understand how social pro- settings. tection works in these settings, which often feature a combination of circumstances such This paper elaborates on the role of social as the following: protection programming, and program- ming design and implementation features, ( Acute poverty either concentrated or that are prominent in fragile and con- widespread (areas affected by conflict flict-affected states. In particular, the paper have lagged behind) and vulnerability to describes the universe of social protection shocks 1 2 S OCIAL PROTECTION in FRAGILE and CONFLICT- AFFECTED COUNTRIES: TRENDS and CHALLENGES ( Lack of social cohesion/weak social fabric Despite many common characteristics, fragile and conflict-affected states are actu- ( Weak or destroyed infrastructure (phys- ally quite diverse, particularly with regard to ical, financial, etc.) metrics of state capacity and the extent to which they have an enabling environment. ( Implicit need for conflict management This paper presents a methodology that has among special groups (e.g., war veterans) been devised to group countries based on income, capacity, and extent of enabling ( Implicit need for developing citizen trust environment. Use of this methodology will in the state aid in understanding trends, patterns, and key factors in policy making and program- ming choices—good and bad. 2 BASIC CONCEPTS ne and a half billion people (nearly gility” should be recognized as a dynamic 30 percent of the world’s poor) live and multidimensional concept. Fragility in areas affected by fragility, con- extends over a broad spectrum of circum- flict, or large-scale organized crim- stances that manifest in a range of coun- Oinal violence. To date, no low-income fragile tries, including Iraq, Malawi, Myanmar, Sierra or conflict-affected country has achieved a Leone, and Timor-Leste, among others. As single United Nations Millennium Develop- suggested in the literature, perhaps a better ment Goal. While much of the world has way of approaching fragility is to differen- made progress in reducing poverty in the tiate among contexts by considering an enti- last 60 years, areas affected by cycles of con- ty’s level of resilience. Resilience is defined flict have lagged economically and have not (e.g., in OECD 2008a and World Bank 2011h) advanced their human development indica- as a political and social system’s capacity to tors (World Bank 2011h). adapt to shocks. Unlike the more amorphous concept of fragility, this is a highly useful Poverty and fragility become mutually rein- concept, in that it is more aligned with the forcing in such settings. In this regard, “fra- process any entity—a person, a family, a 3 4 S OCIAL PROTECTION in FRAGILE and CONFLICT- AFFECTED COUNTRIES: TRENDS and CHALLENGES community, a country—must go through employment, entrepreneurship support, when facing multiple challenges. and/or input or food distribution programs (e.g., as in Iraq, Liberia, Sierra Leone, South One of the main mechanisms to help build Sudan, and Timor-Leste), as they realize the resilience and protect the poor and vulner- political and social significance of these pro- able is context-specific, effective social pro- grams in building confidence, including dis- tection programming. However, it is often enfranchised groups, and reducing social the case that ‘‘the greater the need for social tensions. protection, the lower the capacity of the state to provide it” (Devereux 2000); this is The 2011 World Development Report (World particularly true in fragile contexts. Govern- Bank 2011h) argues that strengthening ment capacity is likely to be even weaker in legitimate institutions and the ability of a terms of social protection than for social ser- state to provide stability, justice, security, vices such as health and education, since line and jobs lessens the probability of conflict ministries often retain some capacity even and fragility. Social protection thus plays an in postconflict and fragile situations. These important role in restoring confidence; trans- realities highlight both the need for social forming the institutions that provide secu- protection in fragile and conflict-affected rity, justice, and jobs; addressing external states, as well as the difficulties in setting stresses; and mobilizing international sup- up programs with limited capacity, funding, port to overcome fragility, violence, and con- and—at times—political will. flict (figure 2.1). For instance, through the provision of short-term employment to dis- enfranchised individuals, public works pro- Social Protection grams have the potential to restore a sense of identity to individuals and confidence in By definition, social protection plays an the ability of the state to deliver services and important role in providing income support improve social inclusion and equity (Andrews and access to basic social services to pop- and Kryeziu 2013). This, in turn, contributes ulations most at risk of being
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