MIRACLE PHOTOGRAPHS • MILK-DRINKING IDOLS • 'READING' CANDIDATES' FACES IN SAN FRANCISCO skeptical Inquirer

THE MAGAZINE FOR SCIENCE AND REASON Volume 20, No. 2 • March/April 1996

CARL SAGAN On Science and Superstition AN EXCERPT FROM HIS NEW BOOK, THE DEMON-HAUNTED WORLD

THE ROLE OF REPRESENTATIVENESS IN PSEUDOSCIENTIFIC BELIEFS SPECIAL REPORT: Spies, Psychics, and THE SENATOR FROM OUTER SPACE

Published by the Committee for the Scientific igatioInvestigationn of Claim s of the Paranormal James E. Alcock,* psychologist, York Martin Gardner,* author, critic H. Narasimhaiah, physicist, president, Univ., Toronto Murray Gall-Mann, professor of physics, Bangalore Science Forum, India Jerry Andreas, magician and inventor, Santa Fe Institute; Nobel Prize laureate Dorothy Nelkin. sociologist. New York Univ. Albany, Oregon Thomas Gilovich, psychologist, Cornell Joe Nicked,* senior research fellow, CSICOP Robert A. Baker, psychologist, Univ. of Univ. Lee Nisbet* philosopher, Medaille College Kentucky Henry Gordon, magician, columnist, James E. Oberg, science writer Stephen Barrett. M.D., psychiatrist, Toronto author, consumer advocate, Allentown, Loren Pankratz, psychologist, Oregon Stephen Jay Gould Museum of Health Sciences Univ. Pa. Comparative Zoology, Harvard Univ. Barry Beyerstein.* biopsychologist, John Paulos, mathematician, Temple Univ. C. E. M. Hansel, psychologist, Univ. of Simon Fraser Univ., Vancouver, B.C., Mark Plummer. lawyer, Australia Canada Wales AI Hibbs. scientist, Jet Propulsion W. V. Quine, philosopher. Harvard Univ. Irving Biederman. psychologist, Univ. of Laboratory Southern California Milton Rosenberg, psychologist, Univ. of Douglas Hofstadter, professor of human Chicago Susan Blackmore,* psychologist. Univ. of Carl Sagan, astronomer, Cornell Univ. the West of England, Bristol understanding and cognitive science, Indiana Univ. Henri Broch, physicist, Univ. of Nice, Wallace Sampson, M.D., clinical profes­ France Gerald Holton, Mallinckrodt Professor of sor of medicine, Stanford Univ. Physics and Professor of History of Evry Schatzman. President, French Jan Harold Brunvand. folklorist, profes­ Science, Harvard Univ. Physics Association sor of English, Univ. of Utah Ray Hyman,* psychologist, Univ. of Vern Bullough, professor of history, Eugenie Scott physical anthropologist, Oregon executive director, National Center for California State Univ. at Northridge Leon Jaroff, sciences editor emeritus. Science Education Mario Bunge, philosopher, McGill University Time Glenn T. Seaborg. University Professor of Sergei Kapitza. editor, Russian edition, Chemistry, Univ. of California, Berkeley; John R. Cole, anthropologist, Dept. of Scientific American Nobel Prize laureate Anthropology, Univ. of Mass. at Amherst Philip J. Klass,* aerospace writer, engi­ Thomas A. Sebeok, anthropologist, lin­ F. H. C. Crick, biophysicist, Salk Inst, for neer guist, Indiana Univ. Biological Studies, La Jolla, Calif; Nobel Prize laureate Marvin Kohl, professor of philosophy, Robert Sheaffer, science writer SUNY at Fredonia Richard Dawkins. zoologist, Oxford Univ. Dick Smith, film producer, publisher, Edwin C Krupp, astronomer, director, Terrey Hills, N.S.W., Australia L. Sprague de Camp, author, engineer Griffith Observatory Robert Steiner, magician, author, El Cerrito, Cornells de Jager, professor of astro­ Paul Kurtz,' chairman, CSICOP Calif. physics, Univ. of Utrecht, the Jill Cornell Tarter. SETI Institute Netherlands Lawrence Kusche, science writer Bernard Dixon, science writer, London, Elizabeth Loftus, professor of psycholo­ Carol Tavris, psychologist and author, Los U.K. gy, Univ. of Washington Angeles, Calif. Paul Edwards, philosopher. Editor, Paul MacCready, scientist/engineer, Stephen Toulmin. professor of philoso­ phy, University of Southern California Encyclopedia of Philosophy AeroVironment, Inc., Monrovia, Calif. Antony Flew, philosopher, Reading Univ., David Marks, psychologist, Middlesex Steven Weinberg, professor of physics U.K. Polytech, England and astronomy. University of Texas at Austin; Nobel Prize laureate Andrew Fraknoi. astronomer. Foothill Marvin Minsky, professor of Media Arts College. Los Altos Hills, Calif. and Sciences, M.I.T. Marvin Zelen, statistician. Harvard Univ. Lin Zixin. former editor. Science and Kendrick Frazier,* science writer, Editor, David Morrison, space scientist, NASA Technology Daily (China) SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Ames Research Center Yves Galifret, Exec. Secretary, I'Union Richard A. Muller, professor of physics, •Member, CSICOP Executive Council Rationaliste Univ. of Calif., Berkeley (Affiliations given for identification only.)

Visit the new CSICOP web site at http://www.csicop.org

The Skeptical Inquirer. flSSN 0194-6730) n published bimonthly by the Committee for the Scientific work of individual author. Their publication does not necessarily commute an endorsement by CSI­ Investisigation of Claims of (he Paranormal. 3965 Renich Rd.. Amherst. NY 14228-2743 Primed in COP or us members unless so stated. U.S. A Second-., law postage paid it Amherst. New York, and additional mailing office Subscription Copyright ©1996 by the Committee tor the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal. price one year (m moo). $32.50; two yean, $54.00; three year*. $7500; single issue. $4.95. All rights reserved The Skeptical Inquirer it available on 16mm microfilm. 35mm microfilm, and Inquiries from dte media and the public about the work of the Committee should be nude to I05mni microfiche from University Microfilms International and is indexed in the Reader's Guide to Paul Kurtz. Chairman. CSICOP. DOT 703. Amherst. NY 14226-0703. Tel.: (716) 636-1425- FAX Periodical Literature 716-636-1733. Subscriptions, change of address, and advertising should beaddressed to : Skeptical Inquirer. Box Manuscript!, letter, book* tor review, and editorial inquiries should be addressed io Kendrick 703. Amherst, NY 14226-0703. Old address as well as new are necessary for change of subscribers Frazier. Editor. Skeptical Inquirer. 944 Deer Drive NE, Alburquerque NM 87122-1306. FAX 505- address, with so. weeks advance notice Skeptical Inquirer subscribers may not speak on behalf of CSI­ 828-2080. For Guide for Authors, fan request ro the Editor or see May-June 1995 issue, page 63 COP or the Skeptical Inquirer Articles, reports, reviews, and letter published in the Skeptical Inquirer represent the views and Postmaster. Send changes ofaddress t o Skeptical Inquirer .BOX 703 . Amherst. NY 14226-0703 Skeptical Inquirer The Senator March/April 1996 • VOL. 20, NO. 2 from Outer Space, p. 12

SPECIAL REPORT 21 Evaluation of the Military's Twenty- Year Program on Psychic Spying What were the "real" Psychic spies? Psychologist Ray Hyman clears up the confusion vampires all about? p. 41 surrounding the government's twenty-year, $20 nullum research pro­ gram that tried using psychics for intelligence-gathering activities. ,, -'•^ITvj RAY HYMAN 24 The Evidence for Psychic Functioning: Claims vs. Reality COLUMNS RAY HYMAN EDITOR'S NOTE 4 27 CIA Concludes No Value to the Program NEWS AND COMMENT MICHAEL 0. MUMFORD. ANDREW M. ROSE. Chronicle "Reads Faces" of Candidates / A Roswell AND DAVID A. GOSLIN Reader / Rolling Uphill in California / Milk-Drinking Idols 5 NOTES OF A FRINGE-WATCHER Claiborne Pell: The Senator From Outer Space MARTIN GARDNER 12 28 Does Truth Matter? Science, MEDIA WATCH Media Miss Real Messages in Subliminal Stories Pseudoscience, and Civilization C EUGENE EMERY, JR 16 Science has beauty, power, and majesty that can provide spiritual as well as practical fulfillment But superstition and pseudoscience PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS keep getting in the way, providing easy answers, casually pressing Reichean Disciples, Restless Statues our awe buttons, and cheapening the experience. ROBERT SHEAFFER 18 CARL SAGAN INVESTIGATIVE FILES Miracle Photos 34 Like Goes With Like: The Role of JOE NICKELL 19 Representativeness in Erroneous and NEW BOOKS 49 Pseudoscientific Beliefs ARTICLES OF NOTE 50 The misguided premise that effects should resemble their causes FORUM underlies a host of erroneous beliefs, from folk wisdom about health Science is Money in the Bank, and the human body to elaborate pseudoscientific belief systems. Not in a Hole in the Ground THOMAS GILOVICH and KENNETH SAVITSKY MARK BOSLOUGH 51

FOLLOW-UP 41 Staking Claims: Vampires of Folklore A Response: African Contributions and Legend to Mathematics We know about Dracula and the would-be vampires m the news, BEATRICE LUMPKIN 53 but what were the "real" vampires all about? Response to Beatrice Lumpkin PAUL BARBER WALTER F. ROWE 54 READERS FORUM Viewers Find Flaws with 'Alien Autopsy Film 57

A doorway to heaven? p. 19 LETTERS TO THE EDITOR 61

BOOK REVIEWS

Whispers: The Voices of Paranoia by Ronald Siegel ROBERT BAKER 45 Radical Behaviorism by Mecca Chiesa DENNIS R. WAHLGREN... 46 ON THE COVER: Photo taken by the Apollo 8 (1968) Spaceships of the Pleiades crew showing the Earth rising above the Moon's limb as seen from lunar by Kal. K. Korff orbit. (NASA. Apollo 8 crew.) JOE NICKELL. 48 EDITOR'S NOTE Skeptical Inquirer The magazine FOR science AND MASON Science and Superstition, and the CIA and Psychics MM Kendrick Frazier or science-minded people, any new book by Carl Sagan is an event To all of us interested EDITORIAL BOARD Fin die place of science and skepticism—and pseudoscience and superstition—in today's James E. Alcock society, a book by Sagan that focuses on theu issues is especially significant. In diis issue, we Barry Beyerstein Susan J. Blackmore arc pleased to present excerpts from Sagan's A Demon-Haunted World: Science Asa Candle in Martin Gardner the Dark, to be published in April. Virtually every topic die SKEPTICAL INQUIRER deals with Ray Hyman is touched upon in some way in this wide-ranging book, which represents Sagan's consider­ Philip J. Klass able thinking about and involvement with science and reason (and unreason) over die past Paul Kurtz decade. It was difficult to select just a few excerpts to share with you. All skeptics will want Joe Nickell to read die book. Lee Nisbet Bela Scheiber Sagan has been one of our most valued colleagues from die beginning. A founding Consulting Editors CSICOP Fellow, he has always spoken out strongly on behalf of science and against pseudo- Robert A. Baker science and fringe-science. But he always brings a fresh perspective to these controversies. John R. Cole While steadfastly defending die values of science and explaining the majesty of scientific Kenneth L. Feder discovery, he also understands the appeal of pseudoscientific ideas and exhibits compassion C. E. M. Hansel for those tempted and sometimes deceived by them. E. C. Krupp David F. Marks Andrew Neher James E. Oberg Robert Sheaffer In early December 1995, newspapers and television news shows were filled with reports Steven N, Shore

about a new CIA evaluation of 20 years of government-funded research in remote viewing ASSISTANT EDITORS (a fancy, sanitized name for ESP) for presumed intelligence-gathering purposes. The pro- Marsha Carlin paranormalist spin doctors were out in force attempting to put their own ovist on what was Thomas C. Genoni, Jr.

an essentially negative verdict about the validity and the value of remote viewing. Much CONTRIBUTING EDITOR confusion resulted. To help straighten out matters, we went directly to Ray Hyman. Lys Ann Shore Hyman, a cognitive psychologist, CSICOP founding Fellow, and longtime member of our PRODUCTION Editorial Board, was one of the two experts die CIA chose—and the only one noted for a Paul Loynes skeptical stance—to evaluate die research. His analysis is part of die final report. CARTOONIST In diis issue, Hyman first briefly presents his own dispassionate overview of the research Rob Pudim issues he and statistician — parapsychologist Jessica Utts examined separately for the report. He then gives a more personal, detailed view of his concerns about die misconceptions he feels Publishers Representative Utts and her colleagues have been promulgating about die results, and critiques the latest Barry Karr "best" evidence presented by parapsychologists. We conclude this important three-part Special BUSINESS MANAGE* Report by printing die final half of the Conclusions section of die CIA-sponsored report. Mary Rose Hays In diis connection, you'll also want to read Martin Gardner's column about retiring ASSISTANT BUSINESS MANAGER Sandra Lesniak U.S. Senator Claiborne Pell. Pell is among the most prominent of those political leaders who have pushed the intelligence community—often against its better judgment—to get CHIEF DATA OFFICII Richard Seymour involved with psychics and the paranormal. Your tax dollars at work. Fulfillment MANAGER Michael Cione

STAFF Elizabeth Begley This is the Twentieth Anniversary year for CSICOP. To celebrate, CSICOP has organized a Diana Picciano major World Skeptics Congress, "Science in the Age of (Mis)Information," June 20-23, Alfreda Pidgeon 1996. at the State University of New York at Buffalo campus in suburban Amherst, New Etienne C. Rios York, where CSICOP was founded in 1976, and at die adjacent Center for Inquiry. Ranjit Sandhu Sharon Sikora Evolutionary scientist Stephen Jay Gould and Nobel laureate physicist Leon Lederman lead Vance Vigrass a cast of eminent scientists and scholars participating. Check die program on pages 8-10. Dana Walpole It should be a grand gathering. We hope to see you there. CORPORATE COUNSEL Brenton N. VerPloeg Inquiry Media Productions Thomas Flynn

The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is the official journal of the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal, an international organization.

4 March/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT

The Return of Phrenology? Chronicle lightweight, ridiculous newspaper, you decided to spice up what had actually been Gives New Meaning to Candidates' Face-Off consistent, in-depth, and insightful analy­ sis of San Francisco's mayor race with some We all know that journalistic coverage of significance of puffs is major temper. So crackpot's facial analysis of leading candi­ politics is often superficial, but an OP-EDthis is an Paginterestine in thg econtrast San Francisco. . .." Chronicledates , wasting an entire OP-ED page in die devoted to mayoral candidates gives new And so on. And on. process. Unbelievable. I am now looking meaning to die phrase "only skin deep." Some readers were outraged. Some forward to die inevitable follow-up when thought it a joke. you hire an 'expert' fortune teller to read On October 26, 1995, the Chronicle "I was amazed that the Chronicle their palms and do their tarot cards. Then published what it called "a unique per­ devoted its OP-ED page to a crackpot I'll be well equipped to cast my vote." spective" on die five San Francisco may­ variation on nineteenth-century phren­ "Your Open Forum piece . . . was oral candidates: "face reading." This per­ ology, claiming that nose-length, lip- unbelievable," wrote Richard Ames of spective was contributed by Rose thickness, and ear-shape reveal a person's Eureka, California. "It was meant as a Rosette, originator of a technique called mental and psychological qualities," said joke, right?. . . The New York Times and "Face Reading Secrets." The Chronicle Paul V. Turner of the Stanford University the Washington Post had better watch announced proudly diat she has been a Art Department in a letter to the editor out. If the Chronicle continues to deliver professional face reader since 1988 and to the Chronicle (apparently not pub­ this kind of creative journalism, they'll has studied thousands of faces, including lished), shared with the SKEPTICAL have to figure out a way to compete, or those of politicians. "Every face," she says, INQUIRER. "This might be presented as suffer the consequences." an amusing example of public gullibility, "is a perfect reflection of the inner per­ Sally M. Dennett, a San Rafael, but it's shocking that the Chronicle son." The newspaper had the Virginia- California, photographer, also wondered if would legitimize such nonsense by turn­ based Rosette turn her expertise onto the it was a joke. But it wasn't. "I called Rose ing over almost an entire page to mayoral candidates, emphasizing that she Rosette [the Chronicle had thoughtfully [Rosette], promoting her business. knew nothing about them in advance. provided her full business address in Beneath each candidates photo there "Fortunately, however, you included a Sterling, Virginia] and left a message on followed eight column inches of drivel, er, photo of Ms. Rosetree's face. My analysis her answering machine," she told the description of each candidates (supposed) of its features reveals she has a charming SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. "She sent me a characteristics. "The mayor has a relatively personality, clever imagination, and an description of her service. Unbelievable!" small area on the face for ambition. . . . uncanny ability to con newspapers into Rosette sent Dennett a nice, hand­ He's got very full eyebrows, and that sug­ abandoning journalistic responsibility." written note and her literature. "Your face gests he is aware of a lot of detail." "The The Chronicle did publish at least is PERFECT as an expression of your significance of [candidate Roberta two letters to the editor. inner talents and challenges," it says. Achtenberg's] large front teeth is that she's "Leave it to die Chronicle," said one "Through the mail or in person, face got a lot of stubbornness." "Maybe the from Steve D. Melon of San Francisco. readings are available from Rose to most significant tiling about [candidate "Not wanting to ruin your reputation as a change forever how you see yourself." Willie Brown's] face is die overall shape. It's widest at the forehead, and then it tapers down. This is die passion-power leadership What S.F. Mayoral Candidates' Faces Tell Us style." Candidate Ben Horn has "dose-set eyes," meaning "he is very highly focused. IS Doesn't miss a trick. Very detail-oriented." Of candidate Joe Ventresca, Rosette says, "This is one person—how can I put that delicately—who I would definitely check up on before voting for him His power style shows in his cheeks being fullest under the cheekbone, which is a wonderful power style that I call die pacifist power style. . . .In contrast to that, however, he has puffs over his eyes —I'm talking about wads of flesh that go from underneath the , eyebrow and cover up pan of his eyes. The Rrcs; &x rmrrwiT-r. Mzs=ssz=zr Kc=s£=s=r,r otxsgsrszxr

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER March/April 1996 5 NEWS AND COMMENT

You can get a "Life Potential Face Portrait," a "Life Progress Face Reading," A Roswell Reader a "Compatibility Reading," or a "Mini- We have published so much recently on the Roswell crashed-saucer/alien bodies claims (see Reading by Mail." The first three, "Readers Forum: Viewers Find Flaws with 'Autopsy' Film," pp. 57, 59, and 60 In this issue), it's whether in person or by mail, cost $85 an getting hard to keep track. Here is a guide: hour; the mini-reading costs $12. She "An Absense of Alien Artifacts"—Carl Sagan (March-April 1996) also touts her Dell trade paperback book "How to Make an 'Allan' for 'Autopsy"—Trey Stokes (January-February 1996) / Can Read Your Face. "A Surgeon's View: Alien Autopsy Plagued by Overwhelming Lade of Credibility Dean Wakefield, OP-ED editor of the Joseph A. Bauer, M.D. (January-February 1996) San Francisco Chronicle, says running the "The GAO Roswell Report and Congressman Schiff"—Philip J. Klass (November-December piece was a diversion from the cam­ ""Alien Autopsy' Show-and-Tell"—C. Eugene Emery, Jr. (November-December 1995) "'Alien Autopsy' Hoax"—Joe Nickell (November-December 1995) paign's seriousness. "Having run several "The Roswell Incident and Project Mogul" [first-person recollections by scientist Charle;iBs B.. series of policy-oriented articles by each Moore]—Dave Thomas (July-August 1995) candidate for mayor," he told die SKEP­ Report of Air Force Research Regarding the 'Roswell Incident' [reprinted)—Richan TICAL INQUIRER, "we saw Rose Weaver (January-February 1995) Rosetree's article as an opportunity to "Showtime's Roswell"—C Eugene Emery, Jr. (January-February 1995) "Conflicting Recollections in Witnesses' Accounts of Roswell 'UFO' Crash" [NewIs & have some fun with the campaign. While Comment]—Philip J. Klass (Fall 1994) some people took the piece at face value, Booh review of Curtis Peebles. Witch the Skies! A Chronicle of the Flying Saucer our idea was to give our readers a brief Myth—Robert R. Young (Fall 1994) respite from the somber tone and mud- Book review of Kevin D. Randle and Donald R. Schmidt UFO Crash at Roswell (Schmidt slinging that had characterized the race." and Randle reply and Klass responds in the Summer 1992 Issue)—Philip J. Klass (Fall 1991) In early December, Sally Dennett sent In addition, these four earlier articles, all by Philip J. Klass, are relevant "New Evidence of MJ — 12 letters asking die mayoral candidates Hoax," Winter 1990; "The MJ — 12 Papers: Part 2," Spring 1988; "The MJ — 12 Crashed-Saucer their reactions to the piece. One who Documents," Winter 1987-88; "Crash of the Cashed Saucer Claim," Spring 1986. All four are reprinted in the SI anthology 7?ie Hundredth Monkey and Other Paradigms of the Paranormal. Kendrick Frazier, quickly answered was Willie Brown, the ed., Prometheus Books, Buffalo, N.Y., 1991. For continuing detailed reports and commentary, read winning candidate, who in January 1996 also Klass's Skeptics UFO Report. 404 N Street SW, Washington, DC 20024. —Kendrick Frazier was sworn in as mayor of San Francisco. "I did think the Face Reading piece in the Chronicle was pretty strange and not It's All Downhill from Here particularly helpful or insightful for the voters of San Francisco," Brown said. Last summer a picnic party of the East Bay Even when she looked at the car from the Skeptics was led by Helen Hunter to a side, the illusion held. Looking back "While I think the piece was essentially most amazing "mystery spot" near "uphill" it's ambiguous, but by no means harmless, I thought it was a waste of Cotati, California. The locals call it "mag­ clear. Looking "downhill" it's a mind- space—which could've been put to much netic hill." The picture shows the view blower. Directions: Go up into the hills better use focusing on the real issues of from the driver's seat, and it's just as con­ about two miles on Lichou Road. Near concern to the voters of San Francisco." vincing in a photo as it is in real life. the top there's a "no trespassing" sign at Anywhere along the slope "down" to the a cattle guard, but it doesn't apply to the Phrenology was a much-believed-in, dip, if you stop the car and let it roll, it asphalt road. Go past the arched ranch nineteenth-century pseudoscience, dis­ will roll back "uphill." In the photo E.B.S. gate at the top of the hill, and you're carded in the twentieth century. We're board member Judy Daar (seen with my there. There's a beautiful view from dog Spark) is expressing her amazement. there, too. —Dan Dugan, San Francisco now Hearing the twenty-first century. But, whether the justification is fun or something else, are we now in for a mod­ ern reincarnation of phrenology, with just a minor "face-lift"? —Kendrick Frazier

FOR THE RECORD

In the News and Comment story "UFOs Real? Government Covering Up? Survey Says 50 Percent Think So" (November-December 1995, p. 3). the labels on two lines of data in the table got switched. They should have read:

Strong Republican 38 percent Leaning Republican 52 percent

6 March/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT

Milk-Drinking Idols Technology in New Delhi. Researchers isters with pipes running into them were diere offered a statue milk mixed with a found in die backyard. The canisters Throughout the Hindu world on red dye and observed that while die had gathered the milk fed by die devo­ September 21, 1995, statues of Indian milk quickly disappeared from the tees." And at a temple in Toronto inves­ deities sipped spoonfuls of milk in sup­ spoon, it soon coated the statue due to tigated by CSICOP Fellow Henry posed fulfillment of a devotee's dream. surface tension. Explained the secretary Gordon, a well-known magician and As the phenomenon progressed, it of the Indian Rationalists' Society, Sanal author in Canada, the attendants spread from die deity Lord Ganesh, die Edamaruku: When a spoonful of milk is refused to allow him to lift die small, elephant-headed, multihanded, Hindu offered to a "wet idol" (many of the thirsty idol from its large base. (He was god, to other idols, including Nandi die idols had been ritually washed) the also refused the opportunity to give the Bull, and statues of Lord Shiva, who is spoon is naturally tilted a idol water and thus test die claim that it often depicted in human form wth a ser­ bit and the milk imper­ drank only milk.) ceptibly drains over pent around his neck. Spreading across Although die widespread phenome­ die idol. In such a India, the milk-sipping phenomenon non reportedly ceased after one day, thin layer it is soon extended to odier parts of die Asian possibly due to official expectations, it virtually trans­ continent as well as to Europe and North continued in some homes in New York America where it was duly noted on City for a time. Reported die Miami television and in newspapers. Herald, "It took 'die miracle' exactly An Indian psychiatrist explained: eight days to reach Miami from "All people are vulnerable to such India." On the other hand, at credulousness. Hindus were espe­ certain sites, such as the cially susceptible because this was Ganesh temple in the season of pitr baksh, when the Toronto's Richmond devout offered milk for the souls of Hill suburb, nodiing their ancestors." So many Hindus ever happened. were caught up in the mass hysteria Nature magazine that milk supplies were depicted reported diat "science took and prices soared—even for a hammering from religion" canned and powdered milk, over die affair, but it did so although only "Kachcha," only on die propaganda unboiled milk, was supposed level. Nature seemed to be accepted by the deities. heartened by die state­ Skeptics pointed out tliat ment signed by promi­ many of the statues were made nent scientists in of baked clay, which absorbs Madras. It called on liquids prodigiously by capil­ educated Indians to lary attraction. States Julia Higgins, help ensure "that ? professor of polymer chemistry at primitive obscuran- 3 London's Imperial College, "Break a asm and superstition * flowerpot, dip it in water, and the did not hold sway water disappears like mad." With over a society on die glazed statues, only a bit of die glaze threshold of die 21st century." need be absent, say from a tooth (as indeed seemed die case in one statue), parent, especially on marble or —Joe Nickel! for capillary attraction to work. other white or light-colored surfaces. But what about relatively non- "The basic principle behind it," says Sources: New York Times, Toronto Star, porous materials like marble or even Edamaruku, "is that when two drops of Indian Express, and The Pioneer, nonporous ones such as brass and odier a liquid are brought together it leads to September 22, 1995; Calgary Herald, metals? Some people noticed milk pool­ die formation of one drop." September 24, 1995; Miami Herald dip­ ing at the bottoms of such statues but Hoaxing was apparently responsible ping, n.d.; The Freethinker, October could not explain how it was getting in a few cases. For example, India 1995; The Ontario Skeptic, in press; India diere. The secret was discovered by the Abroad reported, "At a temple in the Abroad, September 29,1995; Nature, vol. federal Department of Science and Bengali Market area of die capital, can­ 377 (September 28, 1995). •

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER March/April 1996 7 THE FIRST WORLD SKEPTICS CONGRESS

SPONSORED BY THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLAIMS OF THE PARANORMAL AND THE CENTER FOR INQUIRY

20th Anniversary of CSICOP • An International Organization SCIENCE IN THE AGE OF (MISINFORMATION WITH STEPHEN JAY GOULD, LEON LEDERMAN, CHRIS CARTER, JOHN MADDOX, AND OTHERS

•JUNE 20-23/ 1996* STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT BUFFALO AND THE CENTER FOR INQUIRY • AMHERST, NEW YORK AND IN DOWNTOWN BUFFALO

COSPONSORED BY THE SUNYAB DEPARTMENTS OF PSYCHOLOGY. PHYSICS. PHILOSOPHY. ANTHROPOLOGY AND BIOLOGY

THURSDAY, June 20, 1996 2 p.m. — 3 p.m. Opening Ceremony and Welcoming Remarks—Slee Hall, Amherst Campus Paul Kurtz, Prof. Emeritus of Philosophy, SUNY at Buffalo; Chairman CSICOP Kendrick Frazier, Editor, Skeptical Inquirer; Science writer

3 p.rtv-6 p.m. "The Role of the Mass Media in (Mis)lnforming the Public" —Slee Hall, Amherst Campus Moderator: Milton Rosenberg, Prof, of Psychology, University of Chicago; radio moderator. WGN Chicago; PBS, "American Reader" George Gerbner, Prof, of Communications, University of Pennsylvania Leon Jaroff, Senior Editor, Time Magazine; founder. Discover magazine Piero Angela, Journalist, TV moderator, author, Italy Phillip Adams, Columnist, TV moderator, Australia John Paulos, Prof, of Mathematics, Temple University Dean Edell MD., National Radio Medical Commentator

6 p.m. — 8 p.m. Dinner (on your own)

8 p.m. -10 p.m. Conference Address: LEON LEDERMAN, Emeritus Director of Fermilab, and Nobel Laureate in Physics—Slee Hall, Amherst Campus FRIDAY, June 21, 1996 9 a.m.-11:45 a.m. "The Growth of Anti-Science"—Slee Hall, Amherst Campus Moderator: John Maddox, Former Editor, Nature, Great Britain Paul R. Gross, Director of the Center for Advanced Studies, Prof, of Sociology, University of Virginia Norman Levitt Prof, of Mathematics, Rutgers University Susan Haack, Prof, of Philosophy, Univ. of Miami

12 noon-1:50 p.m. Luncheon—Atrium , Center for the Arts, Amherst Campus Moderator Gene Emery, Science Writer, Providence Journal-Bulletin CHRIS CARTER, Creator of "The X-Files" Television Program 12 noon -1:30 p.m. Press Conference—Green Room, Center for the Arts, Amherst Campus 2 p.m.-3:30 p.m. Concurrent Sessions—Knox Lecture Hall, Amherst Campus UFOLOGY Philip J. Klass, Senior Editor, Aviation Week and Space Technology, Wash., D.C. James McGaha, Major, USAF, Tucson, Arizona ASTROLOGY Moderator: Cornells de Jager, Prof, of Astrophysics, Univ. of Utrecht, Netherlands J. W. Nienhuys, Asso. Prof, of Mathematics, Technical University, Eindhoven, Netherlands Ivan Kelly, Prof, of Psychology, Univ. of Saskatchewan HOMEOPATHY Wim Betz MD.. Academish Centrum voor Huisartsgeneeskunde VUB, Belgium James Randi, Conjurer, Author, Plantation, Florida

3:30 p.m.—5 p.m. Concurrent Sessions—Knox Lecture Hall, Amherst Campus THERAPEUTIC TOUCH Moderator: Vein Bullough, Prof, of History, California State Univ. at Northridge Bela Scheiber, System Analyst, Boulder, Colorado; Exec. Dir., Center for Inquiry Rockies Bonnie Bullough, Prof, of Nursing, Univ. of Southern California Dale Beyerstein, Prof, of Philosophy, Langara College, Vancouver, Canada

CHIROPRACTIC Stephen Barrett MD., Psychiatrist, Allentown, Pa. William Jarvis, Prof, of Health Promotion and Education, Loma Linda University

CREATION/EVOLUTION Eugenie C Scott, Anthropologist, Exec. Dir., NCSE H. James Birx, Prof, of Anthropology, Canisius College 5 p.m. — 8 p.m. Dinner (on your own) 8 p.m.-10 p.m. Keynote Address: STEPHEN JAY GOULD, PhD. Museum of Comparative Zoology, Harvard University—Alumni Area, Amherst Campus

SATURDAY, June 22, 1996

9 a.m.~12 noon "Parapsychology: Recent Developments"—Slee Hall, Amherst Campus Moderator James Alcock, Prof, of Psychology, York University, Toronto, Canada Ray Hyman, Prof, of Psychology, University of Oregon Richard Wiseman, Prof, of Psychology, Univ. of Hertfordshire, U.K. Susan Blackmore, Prof, of Psychology, Univ. of the West of England, Bristol, U.K. Jessica Utts, Prof, of Statistics, Univ. of California at Davis Stanley Jeffers, Prof, of Physics and Astronomy, York University, Toronto 12 noon -1:45 p.m. Lunch at Center for Inquiry—JOHN MADDOX, Editor Emeritus, Nature magazine 2 p.m.-3:30 p.m. Concurrent Sessions—Knox Lecture Hall, Amherst Campus

MECHANISMS OF SELF-DECEPTION: HOW WE MISINFORM OURSELVES Barry Beyerstein, Assoc. Prof, of Psychology, Simon Fraser University, Canada Thomas Gilovich, Prof, of Psychology, Cornell University John Schumaker, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, University of Newcastle, Australia

ALTERNATIVE HEALTH CURES Jack Raso, Board Member, National Council Against Health Fraud; Editor, Nutrition Forum Wallace Sampson MD., Clinical Prof, of Medicine, Stanford Univ.

PHILOSOPHY AND PSEUDOSCIENCE Moderator Paul Kurtz, Prof. Emeritus of Philosophy, SUNY at Buffalo Daisie M. Radner, Associate Prof, of Philosophy, SUNY at Buffalo Lewis Vaughn, author Theodore Schick, Prof, of Philosophy, Muhlenberg College Tim Trachet, Exec. Dir., SKEPP; journalist, Belgium

3:30 p.m.-5 p.m. Concurrent Sessions—Knox Lecture Hall, Amherst Campus

PSYCHOANALYTIC THEORY ANO THERAPY AFTER 100 YEARS Adolf Grunbaum. Andrew Mellon Prof, of Philosophy. University of Pittsburgh

CRITICAL THINKING IN EDUCATION Moderator John Kearnes, Prof, of Philosophy, SUNY at Buffalo Clyde Herreid, Prof, of Biology, SUNY at Buffalo Lee Nisbet, Prof, of Philosophy, Medaille College, Buffalo Carol Tavris, Psychologist, Author, Los Angeles John Corcoran, Prof, of Philosophy, SUNY at Buffalo

SPIRITUALISM AND THE UNIVERSITY AT BUFFALO EXPOSE Joe Nickell PhD, Senior Research Fellow, CSICOP, formerly University of Kentucky Gordon Stein PhD, Director, Center for Inquiry Library 7 p.m.-lO p.m. Awards Banquet, Cash Bar, Reception, Hyatt Regency, downtown Buffalo SUNDAY, June 23, 1996 9 a.m. -12 noon World Skeptics Update—Slee Hall, Amherst Campus Moderator: Barry Karr, Executive Director, CSICOP Tim Trachet, SKEPP, Belgium Mario Mendez Acosta, Mexican Association for Skeptical Research, Mexico Amardeo Sarma, Society for the Scientific Investigation of Para-Science, Germany Michael Hutchinson, Skeptical Inquirer representative. United Kingdom Miguel Angel Sabadel, PhD, Astronomer, Alternativa Rational, Spain Henry Gordon, Ontario Skeptics, Canada Stephen Basser, Australian Skeptics, Australia Lin Zixin, PhD, former editor. Science and Technology Daily (China) Shen Zhenlu, China Association for Science and Technology Massimo Polidoro, editor Scienzia & Paranormale, CICAP, Italy

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Fund Voir «ln Future

C S I C O P A T THE CENTER FOR N Q U I R Y

With the completion of its headquarters campus. The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal is poised for an explosion of growth. We appeal for your help in assuring adequate funding—now and in the future—for the bold initiatives that will shape the outreach of science and reason in the years to come. To carry out its objectives in the second half of this decade, CSICOP has formulated specific program and project goals.

1) Critical Thinking / Science Education The Committee proposes to develop new materials—ranging from publications to audio and video cassettes and instructional courseware—to disseminate broader and more accurate knowledge about scientific methods and to teach improved critical thinking skills.

2) Media Watch / Rapid Response The Committee proposes to equip itself to be able to monitor major media on a continuing basis, and to be able to respond to claims quickly. This will entail additional staffing for continuous media monitoring, establishment of an e-mail network to permit rapid formulation of responses by qualified experts, and development of e-mail, FAX broadcast, and other capabilities to assure instantaneous dissemination of our statements to local, national, and world media. In addition, the Committee plans to step up its production of audio and video materials through Inquiry Media Productions. Targets include sequels to the successful public education video Beyond Belief, talking books, a radio op-ed series, and a new public affairs series for public radio. Full implementation will require additional staffing and significant investments in production and distribution equipment.

3) The Institute for Inquiry The Committee proposes to complete the development of its Institute for Inquiry adult education program. The Institute for Inquiry is already the nation's foremost provider of education on the subjects of skepticism, the sci­ entific method, and the critical evaluation of paranormal and fringe science claims. Hundreds of persons have attended Institute for Inquiry courses at scores of locations.

4) The Library of Skepticism With the establishment of the John and Mary Frantz Skeptics' Library in memory of Margaret Frantz at the Center for Inquiry, CSICOP has created a permanent repository to house and main­ tain the world's literature about the scientific analysis of para­ normal claims—and to make it accessible to scholars and other qualified users.

CSICOP at the Center for Inquiry, Box 703, Amherst, N.Y. 14226 (716) 636-1425 NOTES OF A FRINGE-WATCHER MARTIN GARDNER

Claiborne Pell: The Senator From Outer Space

laiborne De Borda Pell, senior that psi phenomena exist. Some of the Pell in combining ignorance of science United States senator from psi research conducted by CIA officials with extreme gullibility toward the per­ CRhode Island and former chair­ is hard to believe, the academy found. formances of psychics. man of the Senate's powerful Foreign The CIA had tried training psychics to Born in New York City in 1918, and Relations Committee, announced last look at photos of Soviet cars and tell a graduate of Princeton University, Pell fall that he will not run for re-election in what was going on inside them. The has a record of being one of the Senate's 1996. For 35 years "Wellborn Pell," as officials considered seriously the tech­ most liberal Democrats. Although an colleagues sometimes call him because nique of puncturing tires by sticking Episcopalian, he is strongly pro-choice of his wealthy father, has been the most pins into photographs! on abortion rights, a brave stance con­ strident member of Congress in trying A full report was published in 1987 sidering Rhode Island's large Roman to persuade government agencies to by the National Academy Press under Catholic constituency. His pro-labor increase funding for psychic research. the title Enhancing Human Performance. record is consistent. He has been Interest in psi phenomena and other (For a summary, see Kendrick Frazier's awarded almost forty honorary degrees. New Age folderol has always been part article "Improving Human Perform­ Other honors include Italy's Grand of the circus inside the Beltway. The ance: What About Parapsychology?" in Cross of the Order of Merit and France's Legion of Honor. He was one of the Pentagon, the Central Intelligence the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Fall 1988.) founders of the National Endowment Agency, and the Federal Bureau of The report was of course roundly for the Arts. Investigation all have people strongly blasted by parapsychologists and by Pell supportive of psi funding. Both the as a misuse of government funds. Pell's efforts to combat environmental Army and Navy have sponsored such U.S. News and World Report (Decem­ pollution led him in 1988 to introduce a research, costing taxpayers millions of ber 5, 1988), in an article titled "The bill for government funding of a New dollars. Usually the work has been top Twilight Zone in Washington," esti­ Age organization named the National secret, listed under code names that mated that "one-fourth of the members Committee on Human Resources. conceal the nature of the investigations. of Congress are actively interested in psi, Senators Albert Gore and Nancy The secrecy is due in part to fear of be that healing, prophecy, remote view­ Kassebaum were co-sponsors. The com­ ridicule by skeptics, and especially by ing, or physical manifestations of psy­ mittee was to have included two mem­ Christian fundamentalists who suspect chic powers." Texas Democrat Jim bers "with training and experience in the agencies are in league with Satan. Wright, former house speaker, said he extraordinary performance results," a believes he has strong psi abilities to see euphemistic way to describe parapsychol­ In 1984 the Army Research Institute, future events. We all remember how for­ ogists. Ridiculed by other senators as a fearful that the Soviets were decades mer White House residents Ronald and "spoon-bending bill," it quickly died. As ahead of the United States in paranor­ Nancy Reagan were devout believers in one congressman put it, "The giggle fac­ mal research, funded an investigation by astrology. Dates of the president's tor is off the meter on this one." the National Academy of Sciences. important meetings were scheduled by Psychologist Ray Hyman was placed in Pell buys almost everything on the Joan Quigley, their San Francisco charge of a subcommittee to report on paranormal scene. His office shelves are astrologer. In my opinion, however, no the status of parapsychology. The study jammed with books on the paranormal, one in Washington has rivaled Senator concluded there is no good evidence including the many autobiographies of

12 March/Apr,! 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Shirley MacLainc. Pell is on the advisory board of the International Association of Near- Death Studies—studies purporting to establish that persons close to death often get peeks into the hereafter. He is also on the board of the Institute of Noetic Sciences, an organization devoted to psi research. In 1987 Pell invited Uri Geller, the self-proclaimed psychic, to Capitol Hill to demonstrate his alleged powers in an electronically bugproof room. Hanging on his office walls Pell has a spoon bent by Geller, a framed photo of Geller, and drawings of a "smiley face" made by Pell alongside a duplicate made by Geller, supposedly using ESP. Pell admits that on occasion Geller may use magic. "Geller was a magician when he was younger," Pell told a reporter. "Maybe when his intuitive processes fail, he can back them up with sleight of hand." This is a commonplace remark made by psi researchers when­ ever a medium or psychic is caught cheating. In the late 1980s the magician James Randi was in Washington to receive an award for excellence in public speaking. The award was presented by fellow con­ juror Harry Blackstone, Jr. Sitting in the Senator Claiborne Pell. audience, lean and frail, was Pell. When he watched Randi bend a spoon until it Randi found a piece of paper and gists have come to similar conclusions broke, Pell became visible agitated. One drew on it. He folded the sheet and about Randi, evidently believing them­ of Pell's associates took the two spoon placed it under Pell's foot. "If I dupli­ selves too smart to be fooled. pieces to Pell who carefully wrapped cated what you drew," said Randi, "will For seven years Pell had on his staff, them in a handkerchief. After the cere­ you admit I have done it by trickery?" at a reported $50,000 a year, one of the mony Pell visited Randi backstage. Pell Pell bent over to pick up and open nation's top promoters of the paranor­ was angry because Randi had presented Randi's paper. He turned pale and visi­ mal, Cecil B. Scott Jones. A handsome, the spoon-bending as a magic trick. Pell bly trembled when he saw that Randi white-haired man, Jones was for forty had seen Geller perform this feat and I years a Navy pilot and intelligence offi­ believe Pell was absolutely persuaded it had exactly duplicated his drawing of an cer. He still retains top secret security could only be done by psychic means. equilateral triangle. Randi has given me permission to clearance. For several years he taught Pell challenged Randi to duplicate a explain how he did this. In the act of political science at two Wyoming insti­ drawing the way Geller had done. Pell tearing the sheet from the pad. Pell had tutions: Casper College and rhe Uni­ versity of Wyoming at Laramie. produced a pad and a pen. While drawing allowed Randi an upside-down glimpse a figure on the pad Pell explained that he of what he had drawn! Blackstone had While a Navy attache in India, Jones knew all about pencil reading, and would also seen rhe triangle, and was doing his said he had a paranormal experience so hold rhe pad in such a way that Randi best to keep from laughing. So much for shattering that he told a reporter he could not see rhe pen wiggling. Pell also Pell's ability to test a psychic! Was he could not describe it for fear of embar­ said he was aware that an impression of convinced that Randi had performed a rassing the government. He added that the drawing could be made on the pad's magic trick? Not on your life. His this event "enabled me to do my intelli­ second sheet. He ripped off the top sheet, unflappable comment later was, "I think gence assignment with much greater folded it twice, and put it in his pocket maybe Randi is a psychic and doesn't speed than one ordinarily expected." without handing Randi rhe pad. realize it." Several naive parapsycholo- (See C. Eugene Emery, Jr.'s article. "Fear

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER March/April 1996 13 of Ridicule the Main Roadblock: Pell and the global best interest to assume phins could be used to locate the Aide Likens Government to Ostrich that if direct ET encounters have not yet remains of flying saucers that have When It Comes to Psychic Phenom­ taken place, it is not too soon to antici­ crashed into the sea. On another occa­ ena," in the Providence Sunday Journal, pate such encounters and to make sensi­ sion Jones sponsored an effort by psy­ July 17, 1988). tive preparations for them." chic mediums to contact dead Soviet After leaving the Navy and obtaining Jones's craziest lecture, given in bigwigs and urge them to beam a doctorate in international studies at Denver in 1992 at a symposium on thoughts of peace to living Soviet lead­ American University in 1975, Jones's UFO research, concerned the great ers. In 1986 Jones invited Pentagon offi­ cials to his home to hear taped spirit apparent obsession with the paranormal explosion that occurred on June 30, voices, one supposedly from William steadily grew. He tried unsuccessfully to 1908, in Tunguska, Siberia. Astrono­ Randolph Hearst. persuade some companies to market a mers agree that the Earth was struck by technique for telepathic communica­ a comet or huge meteorite. Not Jones. Jones's tireless efforts to persuade the tion. As he told Emery, "The venture He said he believes it was a crashed government to fund paranormal failed because the companies and poten­ UFO, cylindrical in shape. research hit its most preposterous level tial customers in the government were Many pages in his book are devoted in October 1990. Jones wrote to then afraid of ridicule." to the efforts of five psychics employed Secretary of Defense Richard Cheney to Jones has been a believer in UFOs by Psi Tech, a commercial firm that say that a group of parapsychologists ever since he saw a silvery disk in the claims to have perfected sophisticated had made a truly amazing discovery. In skies when he was a Korean War fighter techniques for remote viewing, not only listening to speeches related to the Persian Gulf War made by President pilot. His one book, Phoenix in the of distant places, but also past events! George Bush, Secretary of State James Labyrinth, was published by his Human Jones published these psychics' Baker III, and Cheney himself, a myste­ Potential Foundation in 1995. It con­ Tunguska research results, complete rious word had turned up when the tapes were played backward. The word "Interest in psi phenomena and other New Age was "simone." folderol has always been part of the circus inside "I mention this," Jones wrote, "in case it is a code word that would not be in the the Beltway." national interest to be known." The spec­ ulation was that the subconscious minds sists of six speeches he gave at UFO con­ with their crude sketches of what the of the speakers were inadvertently intro­ ferences from 1988 through 1994. Tunguska crashed object looked like. ducing the secret code word into their Jones said he is certain that for The pictures are in wild disagreement. reversed speech! Jones's boss Pell admitted decades the Earth has been visited by Some of the psychics saw the object as that "while it sounds wacky, there may be extraterrestrials. He dislikes calling them unmanned, and called it "self-con­ some merit" to it because he respects aliens, preferring the term Visiting scious." Others described it as manned "Scott's [Jones's] responsible role in life." Others. He has no idea who they are; or by humanoids. All five agreed, however, (See John Diamond's Associated Press whether they come from distant regions that it came from a very distant world of account of October 20, 1990; C. Eugene of our universe, from parallel worlds in sentient beings, perhaps from another Emery Jr.'s article, "Pell Aide Hears Code higher dimensions, or from the future. dimension, entering our space-time in Backwards Speeches," in the SKEPTI­ He said he is persuaded that the executive through a wormhole. One psychic, who CAL INQUIRER, Summer 1991; and a branch of our government, as well as top saw the object as egg-shaped, said it report in Harper's Magazine, January Russian officials, has information about came from the future. 1991, page 25.) the Visiting Others, which it is keeping In 1984 Jones invited Pell to a semi­ It turned out that the source of from Congress and the public. "If 1 knew nar organized by parapsychologists. A Jones's warning came from David Oates, what was going on," he added, "I'm not self-proclaimed believer in psi since his an electronics enthusiast from Australia, sure I would tell you." For years he has college days, Pell was convinced by the then living in Dallas. Oates had coau¬ urged the executive branch to stop its seminar, he said, that it was essential for thored a 1987 book in Australia on campaign of secrecy, disinformation, and the Senate to have someone in a posi­ reverse speech therapy, whatever that is. cover-up. In one speech Jones said that if tion to persuade the government to take Oates told Emery that when he played the president ever reveals what he (the psi phenomena more seriously. In 1985 backward the Persian Gulf War speeches president) knows. Congress would call Pell hired Jones as his aide. of the three political leaders he heard for his impeachment. On one occasion Jones and a psychic "simone" five times. Jones thought the repetition of "simone" was significant "The government . . . may have visited an aquarium in Texas where they enough to send a warning to Cheney painted itself into a corner," he said in tried to communicate by telepathy with about the possibility of unintentionally 1988, "and after some forty-odd years a dolphin. The results were inconclu­ disclosing a top secret code word. the paint is still wet.... It is the nation's sive. Jones has since suggested that dol­

14 Mach/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Emery wrote: paranormal. Pell easily won reelection. use psi powers—weapons that could Uri Geller took partial credit for this vic­ make the old explosives obsolete. When I asked Oates for an example tory. "I will beam my energy to him to Rose founded the Congressional of a "simone" message, he cited an win," he had told a reporter. (See the Clearinghouse on the Future to give August 8, 1990, news conference by Denver Post, February 2, 1990, and "The psychics a chance to address political Bush, where the backwards phrase Flip Side of Simone is Enormous," by C. leaders in Washington. He has advo­ that caught his interest was "Simone Eugene Emery, Jr., in the Providence cated a government-funded "psychic in the sands." He played the tape for Journal-Bulletin, February 10, 1990.) Manhattan Project" to develop clairvoy­ me. Like most backwards messages, Jones left his job with Pell in 1991 to ant and psychokinetic techniques for the phrase isn't very clear, but you can devote himself full-time as president of foiling enemies. But Charlie Rose's hear it if you're told what to listen for. his Human Potential Foundation. Its career is another story. What were listeners actually hear­ offices are in Falls Church, Virginia, ing when Bush said "Simone in the where Jones now lives. The foundation Postscript sands?" Oates said the president's was originally financed by Laurance words were "Iraq has massed an enor­ Spelman Rockefeller. Pell serves on its In late November 1995, the Defense mous war machine." "Simone," he board. From 1985 until recently Jones Intelligence Agency disclosed the exis­ said, came from the sounds in the had been a trustee of the American tence of its top secret program code- word enormous. Society for Psychical Research, serving named Stargate, which was declassified Columnist Philip Terzian said the as its president from 1989 until 1992. and suspended in Spring 1995. Over affair reminded him of the Beatles' It is not known what Pell plans to do twenty years $20 million was spent on white album, where listeners heard after retiring. In reporting his decision the program that included studying six the backwards message "I bury Paul." not to run again, Time (September 18, psychics who claimed to have powers of "I've been reading (Jones's] letter to 1995) headed its article, "Senator clairvoyance, called "remote viewing," Richard Cheney backwards," Terzian Oddball." For decades, said Time, Pell that was supposedly used for spying. wrote, "and [I] am certain I can hear has been "Capitol Hill's most eccentric The CIA, which monitored Stargate, a voice say: 'I bury Pell.'" denizen," an inhabitant of the "Pell decided on the basis of reports by psy­ zone." Among many Pellisms is his way chologist Ray Hyman and others that remote viewing was useless for intelli­ Oates told Emery he had been of saying "formal greetings" when he gence work and no more public funds researching backward speech for seven meets someone, and "too peachy" to should be wasted on such research. years, and considered his discovery that describe a flowery speech. His clothes are baggy tweeds, he seldom shaves, and subconscious thoughts emerge in reverse From 1985 Stargate was directed by he tends to mumble when in doubt. As speech to be one of "tremendous value." Edwin May. His star performer was for­ a tribute to his wealthy father, he wears The backward phrases are of course mer Army intelligence officer Joe his father's belt, which is so long that he highly symbolic and have to be carefully McMoneagle, who now runs a com­ has to wrap it twice around his waist. interpreted. For example, the phrase "I pany, Intuitive Intelligence Applica­ He even wears it jogging. Among his am Sir Lancelot" turned up on one of tions, with his astrologer wife. They nicknames, said Time, are Stillborn Pell, Oates's backward tapes. It signified, he charge clients $1,500 a day. said, that the speaker subconsciously Wellborn Pell, Senator Magoo, and the On November 28,1995, Ted Koppel's thought of himself as a knight or savior. Senator from Outer Space. "Nightline" program on ABC-TV inter­ Oates said he moved to the United When he planned one of his annual viewed May, former CIA director Robert States in die hope of getting academic parties for staffers, Pell tried to borrow Gates, statistician Jessica Utts, a psi recognition for his great work. two camels from tobacco heiress Doris researcher introduced only as "Norm," When he first heard "simone" in Duke, who also lived in Newport. He and Hyman. Gates said the CIA moni­ Bush's speech, Oates said, he thought it wanted the camels to graze on his lawn tored Stargate only because the Russians might refer to a friend or relative, but as a bizarre, special attraction. Doris dis­ were doing similar research, and because after hearing it again in Gulf crisis suaded him on the grounds that camels of pressure from a few unnamed con­ speeches by Baker and Cheney, he began like to spit at people they don't know. gressmen. The results of Stargate's research were of no value, he said, and no to suspect it was a secret code word. The Another member of Congress who is CIA decisions were based on them. phrase thar emerged in Bakers hack- tireless in promoting psi is Rep. Charles ward speech was "simone won't shine." Grandison Rose III from North May, Utts, and Norm all stoutly At the time of this letter from Jones Carolina. He has been in Congress since defended Stargate as validating remote to Cheney, Pell was running for re­ 1973, and has served since 1977 on the viewing. Hyman, the token skeptic, was election against Congresswoman House Select Committee on Intelli­ allowed only a few seconds to say that in Claudine Schneider. She was unable to gence. Like Pell, Rose said he firmly his opinion remote viewing remains capitalize on the "simone" flap, Emery believes the military should spend much unconfirmed. (For more, see Hyman's wrote, because she too is a believer in the more money developing weapons that Special Report in this issue.) D

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER March/April 1996 15 MEDIA WATCH C. EUGENE EMERY, JR.

When the Media Miss Real Messages in Subliminal Stories

eople worried about subliminal Wall Street Journal reporter Lisa sages, such as "You create joyous messages controlling their minds Bannon traced the Aladdin rumor to two thought," "It's OK for me to have every­ Pfound plenty to fret about young men—one in Lakewood, thing I want," and "In my own way I recently, and the media did little to let Colorado, the other at the University of am a genius," hidden in the game's spir­ the public know how small the threat of Northern Iowa—who independently itual jazz soundtrack. subliminal messages actually is. claimed to have heard the "take off your Time Warner tried to sell the com­ The Christian anti-abortion group clothes" line. The story eventually made puter game with the slogan "Play More. American Life League (ALL) of Stafford, its way to the Christian magazine Movie Feel Better." It listed all the messages and Virginia, kicked off subliminal silly sea­ Guide, which ran the rumor without noted that players could turn them off son when it accused the Walt Disney looking at the film. Movie Guide later by turning off the sound track, which Company of sneaking sexual imagery retracted the allegation when the pub­ would be the responsible thing to do if into its films The Little Mermaid, The lisher finally got around to examining the subliminal messages actually worked. film, but by then the accusation had been Lion King, and Aladdin. Then several But the real message of research in the picked up by ALL, which prompted a media outlets such as the Washington field of subliminal seduction is that sub­ story in the Daily Press in Newport News, Post helped spread the allegations by liminal messages don't have the power Virginia, which prompted an Associated widely reporting die claims apparently that some people attribute to them. If Press story, which led to massive public­ without watching the movies or talking you can't hear a subliminal message no ity about the brouhaha. to Disney to see if the claims were true, matter how hard you try, the research or investigating whether overactive While the Walt Disney Company indicates, it can't affect you. And even if imaginations were at work. was denying the use of subliminal sexual you perceive it without consciously real­ Any discerning viewers who exam­ imagery, film director William Friedkin izing it, it's probably no more persuasive ined the film The Little Mermaid, look­ was trying to hype his new movie, Jade, than an overt message. (See the SKEPTI­ ing for the minister's erection (an ALL by announcing that he had intentionally CAL INQUIRER special issue on "Myths claim), instead saw a knobby knee that added subliminal images to heighten the of Subliminal Persuasion," Spring 1992.) was clearly visible when the scene emotional impact of the film, a thriller Nonetheless, the Los Angeles Times appeared at another angle. If they fast- about a renowned psychologist who is a ran a front-page story on October 1, forwarded The Lion King to the spot murder suspect. But apparently a turkey 1995, by Amy Harmon warning that where a cloud of dust appears over is a turkey, no matter how much pseu¬ "the relative ease with which messages young Simba, diey would have had a doscience you pump into it. Jade can be inserted into computer code, hard time making out the word sex in bombed at the box office. combined with the increasing hours the cloud (another ALL claim). And Another company that tried to make people are spending in front of com­ instead of hearing Aladdin whisper, a profit on subliminal messages also puter screens, leads some psychologists "Good teenagers, take off your clothes" ended up with disappointing sales. Time and media experts to believe that the amid the other voices in the balcony Warner Interactive marketed a com­ potential for mind control—voluntary scene, they probably would have heard puter software game called "Endorfun," or involuntary—is greater in the new him whisper to Princess Jasmine's pet which the company openly boasted of as media than in any that came before." tiger, "Scat good tiger. Take off and go." having 93 subliminal uplifting mes­ Harmon's story, which claimed that

16 March/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER some software companies have already then-editor Paul Zuromski asked if minute while the companies they work put subliminal messages in their prod­ Lennon, would "like to pass along a tid­ for get nearly four dollars a minute. ucts and that other companies were bit of information that might help peo­ • Not all of the people on the hot thinking of following suit, cited no ple believe this is you," Lennon's lines are psychic. "Entertainment research and quoted Wilson Bryan Key, response supposedly was, "First, I got to Tonight's" source of the claim: a Holly­ author of the 1971 book Subliminal vacate this body right now because it wood astrologer. Seduction and other books. Key has said needs to take a leak." • Psychic Friends Network spokes­ he can find the word "sex" on many woman Linda Georgian was suing the things, including a Ritz cracker. * > * network for $10 million for fraud, The real lesson of the Los Angeles Times breach of contract, and emotional dis­ piece: The subliminal message issue is not The television program "Entertainment tress. The "Entertainment Tonight" going away as long as reporters and edi­ Tonight" featured a two-part "special folks never raised the obvious question tors don't do their homework and are report" November 2 and 3, 1995, on the of why a true psychic could have been willing to let their own and the public's $300-million-a-year psychic hot-line fooled by the Psychic Friends Network. primal fear of magical messages override business, saying it would show viewers Nor did the "E.T." staff apparently good editorial judgment. whether the hot lines "really deliver" on bother to give any measure of informed, their promises, and what the service objective scrutiny to any of Georgian's » » * costs. past predictions. They might have discov­ Did the "E.T" staff test psychics to ered, for example, that in the January 3, A New Age magazine has been caught see if they could really see into the 1995, issue of the supermarket tabloid practicing deceptive journalism. future? Did they interview skeptics National Examiner she predicted that in The November 1995 issue of Body 1995: David Letterman and Madonna Mind Spirit had a cover story on Hillary would begin dating; Beverly Hills madam Rodham Clinton by Diane Loomans Heidi Fleiss would "convert to that appeared to be based on an inter­ Catholicism, become a nun, and join a view conducted by the writer (but was cloistered convent"; "a devastating hurri­ not billed as such). It turns out that cane will sweep across Florida, wiping out Loomans has never spoken with the first Disney World as it passes over Orlando"; lady. and Tonya Harding (who usually skates in an indoor ice rink) would "become Although Mrs. Clinton seemed to America's sweetheart after she saves a be directly answering questions, and young girl who falls through the ice." Loomans described how Mrs. Clinton "speaks glowingly" and "is emphatic," all the quotes came from speeches, * * * Internet material, and an appearance on "Oprah Winfrey." None of it was Another psychic who seems to have got­ credited. ten a free ride from the media these days Body Mind Spirit publisher James T is Ron Mangum of Springfield, Illinois, Valliere apologized when confronted by who bills himself as "the psychic of the Maria Miro Johnson at the Providence '90s" and who has a special 900- Journal-Bulletin, saying, "This is a fault, number for people seeking winning lot­ definitely." But he also said that previ­ about the tricks psychics use? Nope. The tery numbers. ous cover stories on Richard Gere and program didn't raise the slightest doubts During an appearance October 6, Tom Hanks were done the same way, about the ability of "teal" psychics. 1995, on a Rhode Island radio station. and no one complained. In fact, their only on-air sources were Mangum claimed that he predicted the The magazine, formerly known as self-professed psychics and astrologers. acquittal of O. J. Simpson on "over 400 Psychic Guide, once carried an "in-depth Among the shocking revelations in radio stations all over the country." and candid interview" with John the program: But in the January 3, 1995, issue of Lennon, who had been murdered three • People who call a 900-number the National Examiner, Mangum gave years earlier. (toll) hoping to speak to a psychic some­ this prediction for 1995: "O. J. Lennon's words, the magazine said, times end up with a numerologists or Simpson: Innocent! But a jury will still came from a trance medium. When tarot-card reader. find him guilty." • Psychics who are getting weary from Mangum also predicted that in 1995 Gene Emery is the science writer for the long hours sometimes keep customers on Fidel Castro would be overthrown, and Providence Journal-Bulletin, 75 Foun­ the line, in pan because the psychics are tain St., Providence, Rl 02902. bitter at making only thirty-five cents a Messages continued on page 56

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER March/April 1996 17 PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS ROBERT SHEAFFER

Reichean Disciples, Restless Statues

aranormal events continue to Typically one or more of the Reicheans claims that the UFO occupants (who shape the news in unseen ways. will claim credit whenever a drought are on his side) caused electromagnetic PAccording to a number of on-line ends, although none has yet owned up interference with a United States aircraft UFOlogists scattered across the to being responsible for a destructive Internet, there is a very good reason that flood. The disciples of Reich keep each the Bosnian peace talks were held in the other in a perpetual state of froth, end­ unlikely location of Wright-Patterson lessly deploring the Food and Drug Air Force Base near Dayton, Ohio. Administration's heavy-handed actions In die predictions department, Jeane That, they say, is where the famous during the 1950s against Reich for his Dixon's crystal ball is as cloudy as ever. "Hangar 18" is, containing the bodies of quack cancer cures, painting him as a She foresaw in the Star that "solar-pow­ die "little gray men" recovered from latter-day Galileo, hounded and ered lawn mowers will run clean and saucer crashes. Some say the United destroyed by fanatical inquisitors. quiet—and be extremely popular." Even States wanted to intimidate the warring At the October 16, 1995, Million more interesting, her other Star predic­ factions by revealing to them the awe­ Man March in Washington, the contro­ tions for 1995 included: "Pope John some extraterrestrial findings that we versial Nation of Islam minister Louis Paul II will have a hand in liberating have at our disposal, suggesting a level Farrakhan delivered a long oration that Cuba from Castro" (Dixon has pre­ of technological prowess that would be included a confusing harangue on the dicted Castro's downfall practically futile to resist. numerological significance of the num­ every year since Castro came to power); and "A whole new world of dinosaurs Reichean critic Joel Carlinsky notes ber nineteen. "When you have a nine will be discovered in Central Asia." that James Nichols, accused in 1995 you have a womb that is pregnant," (charges were late dropped) of storing Farrakhan explained, "and when you Other prognostications did equally and detonating bombs on his Decker, have a one standing by the nine, it well. The Washington Post noted Michigan, farm, kept a "cloud buster" means diat there is something secret (September 2, 1995) that the prominent there. James Nichols reportedly dis­ that has to be unfolded." He said the Japanese newsweekly Aera was reporting cussed with an FBI informant in 1988 nearby statues of Lincoln and Jefferson that two astrologers credited widi fore­ ways to "level" the Federal Building in are nineteen feet high; Jefferson was the casting the extremely destructive Kobe Oklahoma City, a crime for which his third president and Lincoln was the six­ earthquake in early 1995 were warning brother Terry Nichols now stands teenth—add them together, and you get that Tokyo would be struck on Septem­ indicted. Wilhelm Reich, psychiatrist nineteen. Truly astonishing! Those with ber 9, 1995; the "most dangerous time" and biophysicist, and inventor of the a long memory will recall Farrakhan's was said to be thirty-seven minutes after cloud buster, believed, as do his disciples earlier claim to have been whisked up in midnight, at which time nothing at all now, that droughts are caused by dan­ a vision to a wheel-shaped UFO while happened. And some interesting sec¬ gerous levels of "deadly orgone radia­ in Mexico in 1985 (Psychic Vibrations, ond-half-of-the-year predictions from tion" building up in the clouds, so the SI, Summer 1990, p. 360). While on the National Enquirer (June 20, 1995) disciples build these implausible con­ board he said he received advance warn­ were: Prince Charles will become king traptions, which they point at the sky, ing of the impending United States air trying to zap the drought away. raid against Libyan targets, and he Statues continued on page 56

18 March/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER INVESTIGATIVE FILES JOE NICKELL

Miracle Photographs

n Friday, October 27, 1995, the door shape, filled with golden light and I telephoned Kennedy about two of television program "Unsolved believed by some to be the doorway to the other "miracle" effects, and he was OMysteries" aired a segment, heaven mentioned in Revelation 4:1. In already familiar with one of them. Sight "Kentucky Visions," that included inves­ fact, as explained in an earlier SKEPTICAL unseen, simply from my description of the tigative work by the Committee for the INQUIRER (Winter 1993), it is simply an alleged "angel wings," he diagnosed light Scientific Investigation of Claims of the artifact of the Polaroid OneStep camera, leakage into the Polaroid film pack. My Paranormal. The popular, prime-time which, when flooded with bright light, subsequent experimentation confirmed television series had requested CSICOP's as when pointed at the sun or a halogen his explanation and showed how the leak­ opinion of some "miraculous" age could have occurred (Figure photographs taken at a recent 2). Virgin Mary sighting at a hillside Fortunately, my experimenta­ spot in central Kentucky. This was tion also provided an explanation my first significant case as Senior for the remaining effect—one that Research Fellow—or as the narra­ had at first puzzled both Kennedy tor termed me, "Paranormal and me as well as some profes­ Investigator" (a "P.I." nonetheless). sional photographers and film The photographs were made by processors I consulted. The effect a Sunday school teacher who had was that of a chart superimposed visited the Valley Hill site (near on one picture. The chart was Bardstown, Kentucky) with eight slightly out of focus, but neverthe­ less unmistakable. One of the girls girls from her class. I did not see the at the site thought she could see in photographs until the day I was the blurred printing the name of a brought on location for filming, deceased friend. Where had the but I was sent color photocopies of chart come from? It appeared to them in advance. The lack of repro­ have resulted from a double expo­ ductive quality put me at more of a sure, although the Polaroid disadvantage with some photos OneStep camera should not ordi­ than with others. I did recognize Figure "Golden door" photo. narily permit that to occur. that die claimed "faces of Jesus and Suddenly, I realized that the card Mary" in one photo were simply due to lamp, produces a picture of the camera's atop the film pack, which protects the random, out-of-focus patterns of light own aperture (Nickell 1993a) (Figure film from light and which is ejected and shadow caused by mishandling of the 1). This was codiscovered by Georgia when the pack is first loaded into die film pack. (More on that later.) Skeptics members Dale Heatherington camera, has a chart printed on its I also recognized in another photo and Anson Kennedy, who tutored me in underside! Indeed, that was dearly the the now common effect at Marian making such photos. (Together we have mysterious chart in question, somehow apparition sites, a phenomenon known wasted much Polaroid film, all in the appearing in mirror image in the pho- as the "golden door." This is an arched interest of scientific experimentation.)

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER March/April 1996 19 tograph taken by the Sunday school may satisfy some people, but. . . ." This teacher. But how had it gotten onto comment was followed by various "mir­ one photo? My subsequent experi­ acle" claims that went unchallenged. I ments showed it was possible to pro­ had not only explained how the "golden duce such an effect by light leakage door" photos are made, but 1 showed (the same culprit that produced the several of them for the "Unsolved "angel wings"). The light had leaked in, Mysteries" camera (Figure 1); but this between the card and the first potential was omitted from the program even photograph, bouncing off die white though such photos were described as card and onto the light-sensitized sur­ "mysterious." Also omitted were my face of the film, thus making an expo­ explanations for silver rosaries suppos­ sure of a portion of die chart. In this edly turning to gold—either due to tar­ way it was superimposed on the first nishing or the rubbing off of the silver photograph made from that pack plating to expose the copper or brass Figure 2. "Angel wings" effect. (Figures 3 and 4). beneath (Nickell 1993b). I included an Taken together, the evidence from all explanation for a new claim: Glass- four photographs, some of which had beaded rosaries were supposedly turn­ multiple effects, provided corroborative ing, momentarily, a golden color; I the­ evidence diat the film pack was some­ orized that the faceted beads were how mishandled and admitted light, reflecting the golden light of the sun. maybe by the front having been pulled Much ado was made about people down widi the thumb on being inserted reportedly seeing the sun pulsate, spin, into the camera, or even by someone or exhibit other phenomena—all due to having sat on the pack. Since die other optical effects resulting from staring at major effect, the golden door, was due the sun, which I discussed at some to the construction of the camera, there length in my Looking for a Miracle was therefore no indication of hoaxing (1993b). Many pilgrims also had with any of the pictures. claimed to see showers of golden flakes, Figure 3. "Miracle" chart. which I attributed to dieir having looked at die bright sun (even though some insisted diey had not looked directly at die sun), or to a dappling of sunlight through the canopy of tree leaves, or to the power of suggestion—or a combina­ tion. All of my comments about such other phenomena, including faith heal­ ing, ended up on the cutting-room floor. The program did end on a rather skeptical note, with program host Figure 4. Detail of chart superimposition. Robert Stack stating: "It is interesting to On the television program, my com­ note that the local Catholic church has Complete card to order copies. enlargementsp#M Print name. quantity and copy *• on 0» book of each photo. ments were edited down to very brief, declined to recognize Valley Hill as any­ Moll to- Published COOT SERVICES • Number of original PO Box but sufficient explanations. The treat­ thing out of the ordinary. The rest of us PhotooooonoM •» . I CA ment of the photographs was uneven will have to decide for ourselves." from a skeptical point of view. The Unfortunately, they will have to decide

Method of Payment Check Credit Card VisaW DAI "faces" were greatly enhanced to make without die benefit of all of the skepti­ them look more realistic. Commend­ cal evidence. That's why I sometimes 2TTL able was the use of an effective graphics refer to the television show as technique whereby die chart was placed "Unsolving Mysteries." • fh«w»>»H— Q—M DefceT ojm Omm on the screen beside the chart-bearing photo, then flopped so as to superim­ References *»*— pose it on the photo. Nickell, Joe. 1993a. Miracles in Kentucky. a**Kiw*w<»mnm Skeptics who watched die segment SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 17(2) (Winter): 120-122. with me laughed loudly at die conclu­ 1 1993b. Looking for a MiracU:Weeping Icons, Relics, Stigmata. Visions and Healing Cures. sion of my interview when the narrator Pp. 177-178. 196-197. Amherst. N.Y.: Pro­ Figure 5. Chart from film pack. commented, "Rational explanations metheus Books. C

20 March/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER SPECIAL REPORT Evaluation of the Military's Twenty-Year Program on Psychic Spying

RAY HYMAN

In 1995 the Central Intelligence Agency contracted for an outside evaluation of 20 years of untie-then classified government-funded programs in "remote viewing" (ESP). Psychologist Ray Hyman was one of two experts asked to review the research. Beginning on this page Hyman presents an overview of the program and of the evaluation. In a second article (pages 24-26), Hyman criticizes statements by some paranormal proponents about the evaluation and provides valuable critical perspective not just on this government- sponsored "Stargate"program, but also on the latest claims about parapsychology overall. On page 27, we print a major portion of the Conclusions section of the report commissioned by the CIA.—EDITOR

n the early 1970s the Central Intelligence Agency sup­ ported a program to see if a form of extrasensory percep­ Ition (ESP) called "remote viewing" could assist with intelligence gathering. The program consisted of laboratory studies conducted at Stanford Research Institute (SRI) under the direction of Harold Puthoff and Russel Targ. In addition to the laboratory research, psychics were employed to provide information on targets of interest to the intelli­ gence community. The CIA abandoned this program in the late 1970s because it showed no promise. The Defense Intelligence

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER March/April 1996 21 Agency (DIA) took over the program and continued support­ representatives of A.I.R. The purpose of the meeting was to ing it until it was suspended in the spring of 1995. Under the coordinate our efforts as well as to focus our efforts on those DIA the program was named Stargate and consisted of three remote-viewing studies that offered the most promise of being components. One component kept track of what foreign coun­ scientifically respectable. May helped identify the ten best stud­ tries were doing in the area of psychic warfare and intelligence ies for Utts and me to evaluate. gathering. A second component, called the "Operations While Utts and I focused on the best laboratory studies, the Program," involved six, and later three, psychics on the gov­ two psychologists from A.I.R. conducted an evaluation of the ernment payroll who were available to any government agency recent operational uses of the three remote viewers (psychics) that wanted to use their services. The third component was the then on the government payroll. We all agreed that any scien­ laboratory research on psychic phenomena first carried out at tifically meaningful evaluation of these operational psychic SRI and later transferred to Science Applications International intelligence uses was impossible. The operational program had Corporation (SAIC) in Palo Alto, California. been kept separate from the laboratory research, and the work This program was secret until it was declassified in early of the remote viewers was conducted in ways that precluded 1995. The declassification was done to enable an outside eval­ meaningful evaluation. Nevertheless, we all cooperated in devel­ uation of the program. Because of some controversies within oping a structured interview that the A.I.R. staff could use on the program, a Senate committee decided to transfer the pro­ the program officer, the three psychics, and the individuals or gram from the DIA back to the CIA. The CIA, before decid­ agencies that had used the services of these remote viewers. ing the fate of the program, contracted with the American The users said, through the interviews, that the remote Institutes for Research (A.I.R.), viewers did not supply information Washington, D.C., to conduct the that was useful in intelligence or other evaluation. The A.I.R. hired Jessica contexts. Utts, a statistician at the University of The remote-viewing experiments California at Davis, and me, a psychol­ that Utts and I evaluated had, for the ogist at the University of Oregon, as most pan, been conducted since 1986 the evaluation panel. AN EVALUATION OF REMOTE VIEWING: and presumably had been designed to The idea was to have a balanced RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS meet the objections that the National evaluation by hiring an expert who was Research Council and other critics had known to support the reality of psychic aimed at the remote-viewing experi­ phenomena and one who was skeptical Michael D. MumfordDAVID PHD A . GOSLING". TnD ments conducted before 1986. These about the existence of psi. Utts, in experiments varied in a number of addition to being a highly regarded sta­ ways but the typical experiment had tistician, has written and argued for the these components: existence of psychic phenomena and 1. The remote viewers were THE AMERICAN INSTITUTES ** ResearchMMAK* has been a consultant to the SRI and always selected from a small pool of SAIC remote-viewing experiments. previously "successful" viewers. May Most recently, I served on the emphasized that, in his opinion, this National Research Council committee ability is possessed by approximately that issued a report stating that the case w one in every 100 persons. Therefore, for psychic phenomena had no scien­ they used the same set of "gifted" view­ tific justification (SI, Fall 1988). In the January 1995 issue of ers in each experiment. Psychological Bulletin I supplied a skeptical commentary on the 2. The remote viewer would be isolated with an experi­ article by Daryl Bern and Charles Honorton that argued that menter in a secure location. At another location, a sender would the recent ganzfeld studies provided evidence for replicable look at a target that had been randomly chosen from a pool of experiments on ESP (See SI, Fall 1985). targets. The targets were usually pictures taken from the At the beginning of last summer, Utts and I were each sup­ National Geographic. During the sending period the viewer plied with copies of all the reports that had been generated by would describe and draw whatever impressions came to mind. the remote-viewing program during the 20 years of its existence. After the session, the viewer's description and a set of five pic­ This consisted of three large canons of documents. tures (one of them being the actual target picture) would be We met with Edwin May, the principal investigator who given to a judge. The judge would then decide which picture took over this remote-viewing research project (after Puthoff was closest to the viewers description. If the actual target was and Targ left SRI in the 1980s); representatives of the CIA; and judged closest to the description, this was scored as a "hit." In this simplified example I have presented, we would Ray Hyman is a cognitive psychologist and professor of psychology expect one hit by chance 20 percent of the time. If a viewer at the University of Oregon, Eugene. He was one of the two mem­ consistently scored more hits than chance, this was taken as bers of the panel hired to evaluate for the CIA the remote-view­ evidence for psychic functioning. This description captures ing program for intelligence gathering. the spirit of the experimental evidence although I have simpli-

22 March/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER fied matters for convenience of exposition. In fact, die judging ever, successful. Successful results come about only when the was somewhat more complex and involved rank ordering each judges are someone other than the remote viewer. The recent potential target against die description. ganzfeld experiments get successful results only with dynamic A hit rate better than the chance baseline of 20 percent can (animated video clips) rather than static targets. The remote- be considered evidence for remote viewing, of course, only if viewing experiments mostly use static targets. I could go on all other nonpsychic possibilities have been eliminated. spelling out such inconsistencies, but this would be futile. Obvious nonpsychic possibilities would be inadequacies of die Even if the consistent hit rate above chance can be repli­ statistical model, inadequacies of die randomization procedure cated with independent remote-viewing experiments, this in selecting targets or arranging diem for judging, sensory would be a far cry from having demonstrated something para­ leakage from target to viewer or from target to judge, and a normal. Parapsychologist John Palmer has argued that the suc­ variety of other sources of bias. cessful demonstration of an above-chance statistical anomaly The elimination of these sources of above-chance hitting is is insufficient to prove a paranormal cause. This is because no easy task. The history of psychical research and parapsy­ remote viewing and ESP are currently only defined negatively. chology presents example after example of experiments that were advertised as having eliminated all nonpsychic possi­ "The 'Operations Program' involved six, and later bilities and diat were discovered by sub­ three, psychics on the government payroll who were sequent investigators to have had subtle and unsuspected biases. Often it takes available to any government agency." years before the difficulties widi a new experimental design or ESP is what is left after the experimenter has eliminated all program come to light. obvious, normal explanations. Utts and I submitted separate evaluations. We agreed diat Several problems are created by trying to establish the exis­ die newly unclassified experiments seemed to have eliminated tence of a phenomenon on the basis of a negative definition. For die obvious defects of die earlier remote-viewing experiments. one thing, if ESP is shown by any departure from chance that We also agreed that diese ten best experiments were producing has no obvious normal explanation, there is no way to show that hit rates consistently above the chance baseline. We further the observed departures are due to one or several causes. Also, agreed diat a serious weakness of this set of studies is the fact the claim for psi can never be falsified, because any glitch in the that only one judge, die principal investigator, was used in all data can be used as evidence for psi. What is needed, of course, the remote-viewing experiments. We agreed that these results is a positive theory of psychic functioning that enables us to tell remain problematical until it can be demonstrated that signifi­ when psi is present and when it is absent. As far as I can tell, every cant hitting will still occur when independent judges are used. other discipline that claims to be a science deals with phenom­ Beyond this we disagreed dramatically. Utts concluded that ena whose presence or absence can clearly be decided. diese results, when taken in the context of other contemporary The evidence for N-rays, mitogenetic radiation, polywater, parapsychological experiments—especially the ganzfeld exper­ cold fusion, and a host of other "phenomena" diat no longer are iments—prove die existence of psychic functioning. I find it considered to exist was much clearer and stronger than die cur­ bizarre to jump from these cases of statistically significant hit­ rent evidence for psychic functioning. In these cases of alleged ting to die conclusion that a paranormal phenomenon has phenomena, at least we were given criteria to decide when die been proven. As I pointed out, we both agreed that the results reputed phenomena were supposed to be present and when they of the new remote-viewing experiments have to be indepen- were not. Nothing like this exists in parapsychology. Yet the claim dendy judged. If independent judges cannot produce the same is being made diat a phenomenon has been clearly demonstrated. significant hit rates, this alone would suffice to discard these Fortunately, we do not have to squabble over whether the experiments as evidence of psychic abilities. More to the point, current remote-viewing experiments do or do not prove the just because diese experiments are less than 10 years old and existence of an anomalous phenomenon. We can follow the have only recently been opened to public scrutiny, we do not normal and accepted scientific process of (1) waiting to see if know if diey contain hidden and subtle biases or if they can be independent laboratories can replicate the above chance hit­ independently replicated in odier laboratories. The history of ting conditions using appropriate controls; (2) seeing whether parapsychology is replete with "successful" experiments that the researchers can devise positive tests to enable us to decide subsequently could not be replicated. when psi is present and when it is absent; (3) seeing whether Utts is obviously impressed with consistencies between the they can specify conditions under which we can reliably new remote-viewing experiments and the current ganzfeld observe the phenomenon; (4) showing that the phenomenon varies in lawful ways with specifiable variables. Every sci­ experiments. Where she sees consistencies, I see inconsisten­ ence—except parapsychology—has met this accepted proce­ cies. The ganzfeld experiments all use the subjects as their own dure. So far, parapsychology has not even come close to meet­ judges. The claim is that die results do not show up when inde­ ing any of these criteria. It is premature to draw any conclu­ pendent judges are used. The exact opposite is true of remote- sions. We will simply have to wait and see. If history is a guide, viewing experiments. When subjects are used as their own then this will be a long wait, indeed. Q judges in remote-viewing experiments, the outcome is rarely, if

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER March/April 1996 23 ject—evaluated the same set of data, we came to very different SPECIAL REPORT conclusions. If Utts's conclusion is correct, then the funda­ mental principles that have so successfully guided the progress of science from the days of Galileo and Newton to the present must be drastically revised. Neither relativity theory nor quan­ tum mechanics in their present versions can cope with a world The Evidence for that harbors the psychic phenomena so boldly proclaimed by Utts and her parapsychological colleagues. Psychic Functioning: So, it is worth looking at the evidence that Utts uses to but­ tress her case. Unfortunately, many of the issues that this evi­ dence raises are technical or require long and tedious refutations. Claims vs. Reality This is not the place to develop this lengthy rebuttal. Instead, I will briefly list the sources of Utts's evidence and try to provide at RAY HYMAN least one or two simple reasons why they do not, either singly or taken together, justify her conclusions. As I understand it, Utts supports her conclusion with the following sources of evidence: he recent media frenzy over die Stargate report violated the truth. Sober scientific assessment has little hope of 1. Meta-analyses of Previous Twinning in the public forum when pitted against Parapsychological Experiments unsubstantiated and unchallenged claims of "psychics" and psychic researchers—especially when the claimants shame­ In a meta-analysis, an investigator uses statistical tools to pool lessly indulge in hyperbole. While mis situation may be the data from a series of similar experiments published over a depressing, it is not unexpected. The proponents of the para­ period of time that may involve several different investigators normal have seized an opportunity to achieve by propaganda and laboratories. Although some or many of the individual what they have failed to achieved through science. experiments might have yielded weak or nonsignificant Most of these purveyors of psychic myths should not be taken results, the pooled data can be highly significant from a statis­ seriously. However, when one of the persons making extreme tical viewpoint. In addition to getting an overall measure of claims is Jessica Utts, who is a professor of statistics at the significance, the meta-analyses typically also grade each study University of California at Davis, this is another matter. Utts has for quality on one or more dimensions. The idea is to see if the impressive credentials and she marshals the evidence for her case successful outcomes are correlated with poor quality. If so, this in an effective way. So it is important to look at the basis for what counts against the evidence for paranormal functioning. If I believe are extreme claims, even for a parapsychologist. Here is not, then this is proclaimed as evidence that the successful out­ what Utts writes in her report on the Stargate program: comes were not due to flaws. In the four major meta-analyses of previous parapsycholog­ Using the standards applied to any other area of science, it is ical research, the pooled data sets produced astronomically sig­ concluded that psychic functioning has been well established. The statistical results of the studies examined are far beyond nificant results while the correlation between successful out­ what is expected by chance. Arguments that these results could come and rated quality of the experiments was essentially zero. be due to methodological flaws in the experiments are soundly Much can be written at this point. The major point I would refuted. Effects of similar magnitude to those found in gov­ make, however, is that drawing conclusions from meta-analytic ernment-sponsored research at SRI [Stanford Research Institute] and SAIC (Science Applications International studies is like having your cake and eating it too. The same data Corporation] have been replicated at a number of laboratories are being used to generate and test a hypothesis. The proper use across the world. Such consistency cannot be readily explained of meta-analysis is to generate hypotheses, which then must be by claims of flaws or fraud. . . . [Psychic functioning] is reli­ independently tested on new data. As far as I know, this has yet able enough to be replicated in properly conducted experi­ to be done. The correlation between quality and outcome also ments, with sufficient trials to achieve the long-run statistical results needed for replicability. ... Precognition, in which the must be suspect because the ratings are not done blindly. answer is known to no one until a future time, appears to work As far as I can tell, I was the first person to do a meta-analy­ quite well There is little benefit to continuing experiments sis on parapsychological data. I did a meta-analysis of the orig­ designed to offer proof, since there is little more to be offered inal ganzfeld experiments as part of my critique of those exper­ to anyone who does not accept the current collection of data. iments. My analysis demonstrated that certain flaws, especially qualify of randomization, did correlate with outcome. For what it is worth, I happen to be one of those "who does Successful outcomes correlated with inadequate methodology. not accept the current collection of data" as proving psychic In his reply to my critique, Charles Honorton did his own functioning. Indeed, I do not believe that "the current collec­ meta-analysis of the same data. He too scored for flaws, but he tion of data" justifies that an anomaly of any sort has been devised scoring schemes different from mine. In his analysis, demonstrated, let alone a paranormal anomaly. Although Utts his quality ratings did not correlate with outcome. This came and I—in our capacities as coevaluators of the Stargate pro­ about because, in part, Honorton found more flaws in unsuc-

24 March/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER cessful experiments man I did. On the odier I found more an opportunity to scrutinize the raw data. Unfortunately, I did flaws in successful experiments than Honorton did. not get all of the data, especially the portion that I needed to Presumably, both Honorton and I believed we were rating make direct tests of the randomizing procedures. But my analy­ quality in an objective and unbiased way. Yet, both of us ended ses of what I did get uncovered some peculiar and strong pat­ up with results that matched our preconceptions. terns in the data. All of the significant hitting was done on the So far, other than my meta-analysis, all the meta-analyses second or later appearance of a target. If we examined the evaluating quality and outcome have been carried out by para- guesses against just the first occurrences of targets, the result is psychologists. We might reasonably expect that the findings consistent with chance. Moreover, the hit rate rose systemati­ will differ with skeptics as raters. cally widi each additional occurrence of a target. This suggests These are just two, but very crucial, reasons why the meta­ to me a possible flaw. Daryl Bern, die coauthor widi Honorton analyses conducted so far on parapsychological data cannot be of the Psychological Bulletin paper, responded that it might reveal used as evidence for psi. another peculiarity of psychic phenomena. The reason why my finding is of concern is that all the targets were on videotape and played on tape players during presentation. At the very least, die 2. The Original Ganzfeld Experiments peculiar pattern I identified suggests that we need to require diat when targets and decoys are presented to the subjects for judg­ These consisted of 42 experiments (by Honorton's count) of ing, they all have been run through the machine the exact same which 55 percent had been claimed as producing significant number of times. Otherwise diere might be nonparanormal rea­ results in favor of ESP My meta-analysis and evaluation of these sons why one of the video clips appears different to the subjects. experiments showed diat this database did not justify concluding Subsequent to my response, I have learned about other pos­ diat ESP was demonstrated. Honorton's meta-analysis and rebut­ sible problems with the autoganzfeld experiments. The point tal suggests otherwise. Utts naturally relies on Honorton's meta­ of this is to show that it takes time and critical scrutiny to real­ analysis and ignores mine. In our joint paper, both Honorton and ize that what at first seems like an airtight series of experiments I agreed that there were sufficient problems with this original has a variety of possible weaknesses. I concluded, and do so database that nodiing could be concluded until further replica­ even more strongly now, that the autoganzfeld experiments tions, conducted according to specified criteria, appeared. constitute neither a successful replication of the original ganzfeld experiments nor a sufficient body of data to conclude 3. The Autoganzfeld Experiments diat ESP has finally been demonstrated. This new set of exper­ iments needs independent replication with tighter controls. This series of experiments, conducted over a period of six years, is so named because the collection of data was partially auto­ mated. When this set of experiments was first published in the 4. Apparent Replications of the Journal of Parapsychology in 1990, it was presented as a success­ Autoganzfeld Experiments ful replication of the original ganzfeld experiments. Moreover, these experiments were said to have been conducted according Utts points to some apparent replications of die ganzfeld exper­ the criteria set out by Honorton and me. This indeed seemed iments that have been reported at parapsychological meetings. to be the case with die strange exception of the procedure for The major one is a direct attempt to replicate die autoganzfeld randomizing targets at presentation and judging. Even in writ­ experiments widi better controls, done at die University of ing our joint paper, Honorton argued with me that careful ran­ Edinburgh. The reported results were apparently significant but domization was not necessary in the ganzfeld experiments were due to just one of die three experimenters. The two expe­ because each subject appears only once. I disagreed with rienced experimenters produced only chance hitting. There are Honorton, but even by his own reasoning, randomization is some inconsistencies in these unpublished reports. Utts points not as important if you believe that the subject is the sole to three different replications that were apparently successful. I source of die final judgment. But this was blatantly not the case have heard of at least two large-scale replications that were unsuccessful. None of these replications, however, has been in the autoganzfeld experiments. The experimenter, who was reported in a refereed journal and none has had die opportunity not so well shielded from the sender as die subject, interacted to be critically scrutinized. So we cannot count these one way or widi the subject during the judging process. Indeed, during the other at this time until we know die details. half of die trials the experimenter deliberately prompted the subject during die judging procedure. This means that the judgments from trial to trial were not strictly independent. 5. The SAIC Experiments However, from the original published report, I had little rea­ son to question the methodology of these experiments. What I Utts and I were hired as the evaluation panel to assess die did question was die claim diat they were consistent with the results of 20 years of previously classified research on remote original ganzfeld experiments. I pointed out a number of ways viewing and related ESP phenomena. In die time available to diat die two outcomes were inconsistent. Not until I was asked us, it was impossible to scrutinize carefully all the of documents to write a response to a new presentation of these experiments generated by diis program. Instead, we focused our efforts on in the January 1994 issue of the Psychological Bulletin did I get evaluating the ten studies done at Science Applications •

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER March/April 1996 25 International Corporation (SAIC) during the early 1990s. the wrong target) as for the correct targets. A sobering exam­ These were selected, in consultation with the principal investi­ ple of this with respect to remote viewing can be found in gator, as representing the best experiments in the set. These ten David Marks and Richard Kammann's book The Psychology of experiments included two that examined physiological corre­ the Psychic (Prometheus Books, Amherst, New York, 1980). lates of ESP. The results were negative. Another study found a Psychologists, such as myself, who study subjective valida­ correlation between when a subject was being observed (via tion find nothing striking or surprising in the reported match­ remote camera) and galvanic skin reactions. The remaining ing of reports against targets in the Stargate data. The over­ studies, in one way or another, dealt with various target and whelming amount of data generated by the viewers is vague, other factors that might influence remote viewing ability. In general, and way off target. The few apparent hits are just what these studies the same set of viewers produced descriptions that we would expect if nothing odier than reasonable guessing and were successfully matched against the correct target consis- subjective validation are operating. tenlyy better than chance (with some striking exceptions). Neither Utts nor I had the time or resources to fully scruti­ 7. Consistency Among the Different Sources nize the laboratory procedures or data from these experiments. Instead, we relied on what we could glean from reading the Utts points to consistencies in effect sizes across the studies. technical reports. Two of the experiments had recently been More important, she points out several patterns such as bigger published in the Journal of Parapsychology. The difficulty here is effect sizes with experienced subjects, etc. I do not have time that these newly declassified experiments have not been in the or space to detail all the problems with these apparent consis­ public arena for a sufficient time to have been carefully and tencies. Many of them happen to relate to the fact diat the critically scrutinized. As with die original ganzfeld data base average effect sizes in these cases are arbitrary combinations of and the autoganzfeld experiments, it takes careful scrutiny and heterogeneous sources. Moreover, where Utts detects consis­ a period of a few years to find the problems of newly published tencies, I find inconsistencies. I have documented some of or revealed parapsychological experiments. One obvious prob­ these elsewhere; I will do so again in the near future. lem with the SAIC experiments is that the remote viewing results were all judged by one person—the director of the pro­ Conclusions gram. I believe that Utts agrees with me that we have to with­ hold judgments on these experiments until it can be shown When we examine the basis of Utts's strong claim for the exis­ that independent judges can produce the same results. Beyond tence of psi, we find diat it relies on a handful of experiments this, we would require, as with any other set of newly designed that have been shown to have serious weaknesses after under­ experiments, replication by independent laboratories before we going careful scrutiny, and another handful of experiments that decide that the reported outcomes can be trusted. have yet to undergo scrutiny or be successfully replicated. What seems clear is that the scientific community is not going to 6. Prima Facie Evidence abandon its fundamental ideas about causality, time, and other principles on die basis of a handful of experiments whose find­ Utts and other parapsychologists also talk about prima facie evi­ ings have yet to be shown to be replicable and lawful. dence in connection with the operational stories of the psychics Utts does assert that the findings from parapsychological (or remote viewers) employed by die government. Everyone experiments can be replicated with well-controlled experi­ agrees diere is no way to evaluate die accounts of diese attempts ments given adequate resources. But this is a hope or to use input from remote viewers in intelligence activities. This is promise. Before we abandon relativity and quantum because the data were collected in haphazard and nonsystematic mechanics in dieir current formulations, we will require ways. No consistent records are available; no attempt was made to more than a promissory note. We will want, as is the case in interrogate the viewers in nonsuggestive ways; no contemporary other areas of science, solid evidence that these findings can, systematic attempts to evaluate the results are there, etc indeed, be produced under specified conditions. The attempts to evaluate these operational uses after the Again, I do not have time to develop another part of this fact are included in the American Institutes for Research story. Because even if Utts and her colleagues are correct and we (A.I.R.) report and they do not justify concluding anything were to find that we could reproduce the findings under speci­ about the effectiveness or reality of remote viewing. Some sto­ fied conditions, this would still be a far cry from concluding ries, especially those involving cases that occurred long ago that psychic functioning has been demonstrated. This is and/or that are beyond actual verification, have been put forth because the current claim is based entirely upon a negative out­ as evidence of apparently striking hits. The claim is that these come—the sole basis for arguing for ESP is that extra-chance remote viewers are right on—are actually getting true psychic results can be obtained that apparently cannot be explained by signals—about 20 percent of die time. normal means. But an infinite variety of normal possibilities Call it prima facie or whatever, none of this should be con­ exist and it is not clear than one can control for all of them in sidered as evidence for anything. In situations where we do a single experiment. You need a positive theory to guide you as have some control comparisons, we find the same degree of to what needs to be controlled, and what can be ignored. hitting for wrong targets (when die judge does not realize it is Parapsychologists have not come close to this as yet. LJ

26 March/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 'Remote Viewing ... Has Not Been Shown to Have Value in Intelligence Operations'

Here are the final paragraphs from the conditions under which the perspective of the application the Conclusions section of the remote viewing occurs and if those of paranormal phenomena is the report* of the study conducted for conditions constrain its application fact that the remote viewers and the Central Intelligence Agency for intelligence purposes. Prior project managers reported that evaluating government-funded research suggests that distance is remote viewing reports were work on remote viewing. not a constraint and, indeed, that changed to make them consistent a sender or "beacon" may not be with known background cues. "Our conclusion is that at this necessary. However, other charac­ While this was appropriate in that juncture it would be premature to teristics of intelligence gathering situation, it makes it impossible to assume that we have a convincing indicate that remote viewing is of interpret the role of the paranor­ demonstration of a paranormal little value. Intelligence operations mal phenomenon independently. phenomenon. In fact, until a plau­ do not provide targets of a fixed Also, it raises some doubts about bandwidth; rather, targets and tar­ sible causal mechanism has been some well publicized cases of dra­ get types are highly variable. matic hits, which, if taken at face identified, and competing expla­ Moreover, the apparent necessity value, could not easily be attrib­ nations carefully investigated, we for feedback to the remote view­ uted to background cues. In at cannot interpret the set of anom­ ers would preclude its use in intel­ least some of these cases, there is alous observations localized to ligence gathering operations. reason to suspect, based on both one laboratory with one set of Finally, intelligence information is subsequent investigations and the methods. Given these observa­ most valuable if it is concrete and viewers' statement that reports tions, and the methodological specific, and reliably interpretable. had been "changed" by previous problems noted above, we must Unfortunately, the research con­ program managers, that substan­ conclude that ducted to date indicates that the tially more background informa­ • Adequate experimental and remote viewing phenomenon fails tion was available than one might theoretical evidence for the exis­ to meet those preconditions. at first assume. Give[n] these tence of remote viewing as a para- Therefore, we conclude that observations, it is difficult to argue psychological phenomenon has that available evidence justifies not been provided by the research • Remote viewing, as exemplified application of remote viewing in component of current program. A by the efforts in the current pro­ intelligence operations. significant change in focus and gram, has not been shown to have methods would be necessary to jus­ value in intelligence operations. In summary, two clear-cut con- tify the additional laboratory This point was also graphically clusion[s) emerge from our exami­ research within the current pro­ illustrated in the user interviews, nation of the operational compo­ gram. where it was found that remote nent of the current program. First, This is not to say definitely that viewings have never provided an as stated above, evidence for the paranormal phenomena do not adequate basis for "actionable" operational value of remote view­ exist. At some point in time, ade­ intelligence operations—that is, ing is not available, even after a quate evidence might be provided information sufficiently valuable decade of attempts. Second, it is for the existence of remote view­ or compelling so that action was unlikely that remote viewing—as ing. With this point in mind, we taken as a result. If a phenomenon currently understood—even if its considered the potential applica­ does not contribute to intelligence existence can be unequivocally tions of remote viewing in intelli­ operations, it is difficult to see demonstrated, will prove of any use gence gathering. what justification exists for its con­ in intelligence gathering due to the tinued application. This is particu­ conditions and constraints applying The first consideration involves larly true in the case of remote in intelligence operations and the viewing, where a large amount of suspected characteristics of the phe­ *An Evaluation of Remote Viewing: Research and Applications, by Michael irrelevant, erroneous information nomenon. We conclude that D. Mumford, Andrew M. Rose, and is provided and little agreement is David A. Goslin. The American Institutes observed among viewers' reports. • Continued support for the for Research, 3333 K Street NW, operational component of the cur­ Washington. DC 20007, September 1995. Particularly troublesome from rent program is not justified." D

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER March/April 1996 27 Does Truth Matter? Science, Pseudoscience, and Civilization

Science has beauty, power, and majesty that can provide spiritual as well as practical fulfillment. But superstition and pseudoscience keep getting in the way providing easy answers, casually pressing our awe buttons, and cheapening the experience.

CARL SAGAN

Do we care what's true? Does it matter?

. . . where ignorance is bliss, 'Tis folly to be wise

wrote the poet Thomas Gray. But is it? Edmund Way Teale in his 1950 book Circle of the Seasons understood the dilemma better:

It is morally as bad not to care whether a thing is true or not, so long as it makes you feel good, as it is not to care how you got your money as long as you have got it.

It's disheartening to discover government corruption and incompetence, for example; but is it better not to know

This article and the four shorter excerpts accompanying it are from Carl Sagans forthcoming book, The Demon-Haunted World: Science As a Candle in the Dark, to be published in early April by Random House. Excerpted by permission of die author and publisher.

March/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER about it? Whose interest does ignorance serve? If we humans its power, we will find, in spiritual as well as in practical mat­ bear, say, hereditary propensities toward the hatred of ters, that we have made a bargain strongly in our favor. strangers, isn't self-knowledge the only antidote? If we long to But superstition and pseudoscience keep getting in the way, believe that the stars rise and set for us, that we are the reason distracting us, providing easy answers, dodging skeptical there is a Universe, does science do us a disservice in deflating scrutiny, casually pressing our awe buttons and cheapening the our conceits? experience, making us routine and comfortable practitioners In The Genealogy of Morals, Friedrich Nietzsche, as so many as well as victims of credulity. Yes, the world would be a more before and after, decries the "unbroken progress in the interestinself-belittlingg place if there wereo fUFO mans" lurkinbroughg itn abou the deet byp thwatere scientifis c revolution. Nietzsche mourns the loss of "man's belief in his dignity, his off Bermuda and eating ships and planes, or if dead people uniqueness, his irreplaceability in the scheme of existence." could take control of our hands and write us messages. It For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than would be fascinating if adolescents were able to make tele­ to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. phone handsets rocket off their cradles just by thinking at Which attitude is better geared for our long-term survival? them, or if our dreams could, more often than can be Which gives us more leverage on our future? And if our naive explained by chance and our knowledge of the world, accu­ self-confidence is a little undermined in the process, is that rately foretell the future. altogether such a loss? Is These are all instances of pseudoscience. They purport to there not cause to welcome use the methods and find­ it as a maturing and charac­ ings of science, while in ter-building experience? Science as a Source of Spirituality fact they are faithless to its In its encounter with Nature, science Invariably elicits a sense of nature—often because they To discover that the reverence and awe. The very act of understanding is a celebration are based on insufficient of joining, merging, even if on a very modest scale, with the mag­ Universe is some 8 to 15 evidence or because they nificence of the Cosmos. And the cumulative worldwide buildup of billion and not 6 to 12 ignore clues that point the knowledge over time converts science into something only a little other way. They ripple with thousand years old' short of a transnational, transgenerational metamlnd. gullibility. With the unin­ improves our appreciation "Spirit" comes from the Latin word "to breathe." What we of its sweep and grandeur; breathe is air, which is certainly matter, however thin. Despite formed cooperation (and to entertain the notion that usage to the contrary, there is no necessary Implication in the word often the cynical con­ we are a particularly com­ "spiritual" that we are talking of anything otlier than matter nivance) of newspapers, plex arrangement of atoms, (including the matter of which the brain is made), or anything out­ magazines, book publish­ and not some breath of side die realm of science. On occasion, I will feel free to use the ers, radio, television, movie divinity, at the very least word. Science is not only compatible with spirituality; it is a pro­ producers, and the like, enhances our respect for found source of spirituality. When we recognize our place in an such ideas are easily and atoms; to discover, as now immensity of light-years and in the passage of ages, when we grasp widely available. Far more the Intricacy, beauty, and subtlety of life, dren that soaring feeling, seems probable, that our difficult to come upon are mat sense of elation and humility combined, is surely spiritual. So planet is one of billions of the alternative, more chal­ are our emotions in die presence of great art or music or litera­ lenging, and even more other worlds in the Milky ture, or of acts of exemplary selfless courage such as tiiose of Way Galaxy and that our Mohandas Gandhi or Martin Luther King, Jr. The notion that sci­ dazzling findings of sci­ galaxy is one of billions ence and spirituality are somehow mutually exclusive does a dis­ ence. more, majestically expands service to both. the arena of what is possi­ Pseudoscience is easier ble; to find that our ancestors were also the ancestors of apes to contrive than science ties us to the rest of life and makes possible important—if because distracting confrontations with reality—where we occasionally rueful—reflections on human nature. cannot control the outcome of the comparison—are more readily avoided. The standards of argument, what passes for Plainly there is no way back. Like it or not, we are stuck evidence, are much more relaxed. In part for these same rea­ with science. We had better make the best of it. When we sons, it is much easier to present pseudoscience to the general finally come to terms with it and fully recognize its beauty and public than science. But this isn't enough to explain its popu­ larity. Carl Sagan is the David Duncan Professor of Astronomy and Naturally people try various belief systems on for size, to Space Sciences and the Director of the Laboratory for Planetary see if they help. And if we're desperate enough, we become all Studies at Cornell University The American Astronomical Society too willing to abandon what may be perceived as the heavy recently cited him for his "extraordinary contributions to planetary burden of skepticism. Pseudoscience speaks to powerful emo­ science" and, in 1994, the National Academy of Sciences awarded tional needs that science often leaves unfulfilled. It caters to him its highest honor, the Public Welfare Medal, for distinguished fantasies about personal powers we lack and long for (like contributions in the application of science to the public welfare. He those attributed to comic book superheroes today, and earlier, is a CSICOP Fellow and recipient of CSICOP's In Praise of to the gods). In some of its manifestations, it offers satisfaction Reason Award (1987) and its first Isaac Asimov Award (1994). of spiritual hungers, cures for disease, promises that death is

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER March/April 1996 29 not the end. It reassures us of our cosmic centrality and impor­ Most of the case histories I will relate are American— tance. It vouchsafes that we are hooked up with, tied to, the because these are the cases I know best, not because pseudo- Universe.3 Sometimes it's a kind of halfway house between old science and mysticism are more prominent in the United religion and new science, mistrusted by both. States than elsewhere. But the psychic spoonbender and At the heart of some pseudoscience (and some religion also, extraterrestrial channeler Uri Geller hails from Israel. As ten­ New Age and Old) is the idea that wishing makes it so. How sions rise between Algerian secularists and Moslem funda­ satisfying it would be, as in folklore and children's stories, to mentalists, more and more people are discreetly consulting the fulfill our heart's desire just by wishing. How seductive this country's 10,000 soothsayers and clairvoyants (about half of notion is, especially when compared with the hard work and whom operate with a license from the government). High good luck usually required to achieve our hopes. The French officials, including a former president of France, enchanted fish or the genie from the lamp will grant us three arranged for millions of dollars to be invested in a scam (the wishes—anything we want except more wishes. Who has not Elf-Aquitaine scandal) to find new petroleum reserves from pondered—just to be on the safe side, just in case we ever the air. In Germany, there is concern about carcinogenic come upon and acciden­ "Earth rays" undetectable tally rub an old, squat brass by science; they can be oil lamp—what to ask for? The Metaphysicist Has No Laboratory sensed only by experienced I remember, from child­ The truth may be puzzling or counterintuitive. It may contradict dowsers brandishing forked hood comic strips and deeply held beliefs. Experiment Is how we get a handle on it. sticks. "Psychic surgery" books, a top-hatted, musta­ At a dinner many decades ago. the physicist Robert W. Wood flourishes in the Philip­ chioed magician who bran­ was asked to respond to the toast, "To physics and metaphysics." pines. Ghosts are some­ By "metaphysics," people then meant something like philosophy, dished an ebony walking thing of a national obses­ or truths you could recognize just by thinking about them. They stick. His name was Zatara. sion in Britain. Since could also have Included pseudoscience. Wood answered along World War II, Japan has He could make anything these lines: happen, anything at all. spawned enormous num­ The physicist has an idea. The more he thinks it through, the bers of new religions featur­ How did he do it? Easy. He more sense it seems to make. He consults the scientific literature. ing the supernatural. An uttered his commands The more he reads, the more promising the Idea becomes. Thus estimated 100,000 fortune­ backwards. So if he wanted prepared, he goes to the laboratory and devises an experiment to tellers flourish in Japan; the a million dollars, he would test it. The experiment is painstaking. Many possibilities are clientele are mainly young say "srallod noillim a em checked. The accuracy of measurement is refined, the error bars reduced. He lets the chips fall where they may. He is devoted only women. Aum Shinrikyo, a evig." That's all there was to to what the experiment teaches. At the end of all this work, sect thought to be involved it. It was something like through careful experimentation, the idea is found to be worthless. in the release of the nerve prayer, but much surer of So the physicist discards it, frees his mind from the clutter of error, gas sarin in the Tokyo sub­ results. and moves on to something else.' way system in March 1995, I spent a lot of time at The difference between physics and metaphysics, Wood con­ features levitation, faith age eight experimenting in cluded as he raised his glass high. Is not that the practitioners of healing, and ESP among its this vein, commanding one are smarter than the practitioners of the other. The difference main tenets. Followers, at a stones to levitate: "esir, is that the metaphysicist has no laboratory. high price, drank the "mir­ enots." It never worked. I acle pond" water—from Note blamed my pronunciation. I. As the pioneering physicist BenjaminFrankli n put it, "In going on with the bath of Asaraha, their these experiments, how many pretty systems do we build, which we soon leader. In Thailand, dis­ find ourselves obliged to destroy?" At the very least, he thought, the eases are treated with pills experience sufficed to "help to make a vain Man humble."

Pseudoscience is embraced, manufactured from pulver­ it might be argued, in exact proportion as real science is mis­ ized sacred Scripture. "Witches" are today being burned in understood—except that the language breaks down here. If South Africa. Australian peace-keeping forces in Haiti rescue a you've never heard of science (to say nothing of how it works), woman tied to a tree; she is accused of flying from rooftop to you can hardly be aware you're embracing pseudoscience. rooftop, and sucking the blood of children. Astrology is rife in You're simply thinking in one of the ways that humans always India, geomancy widespread in China. have. Religions are often the state-protected nurseries of pseu­ Perhaps the most successful recent global pseudoscience— doscience, although there's no reason why religions have to by many criteria, already a religion—is the Hindu doctrine of play that role. In a way, it's an artifact from times long gone. transcendental meditation (TM). The soporific homilies of its In some countries nearly everyone believes in astrology and founder and spiritual leader, the Maharishi Mahesh Yogi, can precognition, including government leaders. But this is not be seen on television. Seated in the yogi position, his white hair simply drummed into them by religion; it is drawn out of the here and there flecked with black, surrounded by garlands and enveloping culture in which everyone is comfortable with floral offerings, he has a look. One day while channel surfing we these practices, and affirming testimonials are everywhere. came upon this visage. "You know who that is?" asked our four-

30 March/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER year-old son. "God." The worldwide TM organization has an cines, magic waters, and old-rime superstition. A stunning estimated valuation of $3 billion. For a fee they promise decline in life expectancy, increasing infant mortality, rampant through meditation to be able to walk you through walls, to epidemic disease, subminimal medical standards, and ignorance make you invisible, to enable you to fly. By thinking in unison of preventative medicine all work to raise the threshold at which they have, they say, diminished the crime rate in Washington, skepticism is triggered in an increasingly desperate population. D.C., and caused the collapse of the Soviet Union, among As I write, the electorally most popular member of the Duma, other secular miracles. Not one smattering of real evidence has a leading supporter of the ultranarionalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky, been offered for any such claims. TM sells folk medicine, runs is one Anatoly Kashpirovsky—a faith healer who remotely cures trading companies, medical clinics and "research" universities, diseases ranging from hernias to AIDS by glaring at you out of and has unsuccessfully entered politics. In its oddly charismatic your television set. His face starts stopped clocks. leader, its promise of community, and the offer of magical pow­ A somewhat analogous situation exists in China. After the ers in exchange for money and fervent belief, it is typical of death of Mao Zedong and the gradual emergence of a market many pseudosciences marketed for sacerdotal export. economy, UFOs, channeling, and other examples of Western At each relinquishing of pseudoscience emerged, civil controls and scientific along with such ancient education another little spun The Siren Song of Unreason Chinese practices as ances­ in pseudoscience occurs. A Candle in the Dark is the title of a courageous, largely Biblically- tor worship, astrology, and Leon Trotsky described it for based, book by Thomas Ady, published in London in 1656, attack­ fortune telling—especially Germany on the eve of the ing the witchhunts then in progress as a scam "to delude the peo­ that version that involves Hider takeover (but in a ple." Any Illness or storm, anything out of the ordinary, was popu­ throwing yarrow sticks and description that might larly attributed to witchcraft. Witches must exist, Ady quoted the working through the hoary equally have applied to the "witchmongers" as arguing—"else how should these things be, or tetragrams of the / Ching. come to pass?" For much of our history, we were so fearful of the Soviet Union of 1933): The government newspa­ outside world, with Its unpredictable dangers, that we gladly per lamented that "the embraced anything mat promised to soften or explain away the superstition of feudal ideol­ Not only in peasant terror. Science is an attempt, largely successful, to understand the homes, but also in city sky­ world, to get a grip on things, to get hold of ourselves, to steer a ogy is reviving in our coun­ scrapers, there lives along safe course. Microbiology and meteorology now explain what only tryside." It was (and side the twentieth century a few centuries ago was considered sufficient cause to burn remains) a rural, not pri­ the thirteenth. A hundred million people use electric­ women to death. marily an urban, affliction. ity and still believe in the Ady also warned of the danger that "the Nations [will] perish Individuals with "special magic powers of signs and for lack of knowledge." Avoidable human misery is more often powers" gained enormous exorcisms. . . . Movie stars caused not so much by stupidity as by ignorance, particularly our followings. They could, they go to mediums. Aviators ignorance about ourselves. I worry that, especially as the said, project Qi, the "energy who pilot miraculous Millennium edges nearer, pseudoscience and superstition will seem mechanisms created by field of the Universe," out of man's genius wear amulets year by year more tempting, the siren song of unreason more rheir bodies to change the on their sweaters. What sonorous and attractive. Where have we heard It before? molecular structure of a inexhaustible reserves they Whenever our ethnic or national prejudices are aroused, in times chemical 2000 kilometers possess of darkness, igno­ of scarcity, during challenges to national self-esteem or nerve, away, to communicate with rance and savagery! when we agonize about our diminished cosmic place and purpose, aliens, to cure diseases. Some or when fanaticism is bubbling up around us—men, habits of patients died under the min­ thought familiar from ages past reach for the controls. Russia is an instructive istrations of one of these case. Under the tsars, reli­ The candle flame gutters. Its little pool of light trembles. "masters of Qi Gong" who Darkness gathers. The demons begin to stir. gious superstition was encouraged, but scientific was arrested and convicted and skeptical thinking—except by a few tame scientists—was in 1993. Wang Hongcheng, an amateur chemist, claimed to have ruthlessly expunged. Under Communism, both religion and synthesized a liquid, small amounts of which, when added to pseudoscience were systematically suppressed—except for the water, would convert it to gasoline or the equivalent. For a rime superstition of the state ideological religion. It was advertised he was funded by the army and the secret police, but when his as scientific, but fell as far short of this ideal as the most unself¬ invention was found to be a scam he was arrested and impris­ crirical mystery cult. Critical thinking—except by scientists in oned. Naturally the story spread that his misfortune resulted not hermetically sealed compartments of knowledge—was recog­ from fraud, but from his unwillingness to reveal his "secret for­ nized as dangerous, was not taught in the schools, and was pun­ mula" to the government. (Similar stories have circulated in ished where expressed. As a result, post-Communism, many America for decades, usually with the government role replaced Russians view science with suspicion. When the lid was lifted, by a major oil or auto company.) Asian rhinos are being driven as was also true of virulent ethnic hatreds, what had all along to extinction because their horns, when pulverized, are said to been bubbling subsurface was exposed to view. The region is now awash in UFOs, poltergeists, faith healers, quack medi- prevent impotence; me market encompasses all of East Asia. The government of China and the Chinese Communist Party

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER March/April 1996 31 were alarmed by certain of these developments. On December 5, art was considered a capital offense. Emerging from a particularly 1994, they issued a joint proclamation that read in part: credulous Southern California culture, Nancy and Ronald Reagan relied on an astrologer in private and public matters— public education in science has been withering in recent years. unknown to die voting public. Some portion of the decision­ At the same time, activities of superstition and ignorance have making tJiat influences the future of our civilization is plainly in been growing, and antiscience and pseudoscience cases have the hands of charlatans. If anything, the practice is comparatively become frequent. Therefore, effective measures must be applied muted in America; its venue is worldwide. as soon as possible to strengthen public education in science. The level of public education in science and technology is an important sign of the national scientific accomplishment. It is a matter of overall importance in economic development, scien­ tific advance, and the progress of society. We must be attentive and implement such public education as part of the strategy to As amusing as some of pseudoscience may seem, as confident modernize our socialist country and to make our nation power­ as we may be that we would never be so gullible as to be swept ful and prosperous. Ignorance is never socialist, nor is poverty. up by such a doctrine, we know it's happening all around us. Transcendental Meditation and Aum Shinrikyo seem to have So pseudoscience in America is pan of a global trend. Its attracted a large number of accomplished people, some with causes, dangers, diagnosis, and treatment are likely to be similar advanced degrees in physics or engineering. These are not doc­ everywhere. Here, psychics ply their wares on extended television trines for nitwits. Something else is going on. commercials, personally endorsed by entertainers. They have What's more, no one interested in what religions are and how their own channel, the "Psychic Friends Network"; a million they begin can ignore them. While vast barriers may seem to people a year sign on and use such guidance in their everyday stretch between a local, single-focus contention of pseudoscience lives. For the CEOs of major corporations, for financial analysts, and something like a world religion, the partitions are very thin. for lawyers and bankers there is a species of astrologer/soorh- The world presents us with nearly insurmountable problems. A sayer/psychic ready to advise on any matter. "If people knew how wide variety of solutions are offered, some of very limited world- many people, especially the very rich and powerful ones, went to view, some of portentous sweep. In the usual Darwinian natural psychics, their jaws would drop through the floor," says a psychic selection of doctrines, some thrive for a time, while most quickly from Cleveland, Ohio. Royalty has traditionally been vulnerable vanish. But a few—sometimes, as history has shown, the most to psychic frauds. In ancient China and Rome astrology was the scruffy and least prepossessing among them—may have the exclusive property of the emperor; any private use of this potent power to profoundly change the history of the world.

much more cleverness dian crop circles and the MJ-12 document. An Absence of Alien Artifacts In none of these stories is there anything strongly suggestive of extraterrestrial origin. Some [alleged UFO] abductees say that tiny Hospital. Their conclusion? Collagen formed by There Is certainly no retrieval of cunning machin­ Implants, perhaps metallic, were Inserted Into the body at sites of inflammation plus cotton fibers ery far beyond current technology. No abductee their bodies—high up their nostrils, for example. from Price's underpants. has filched a page from the captain's logbook, or These Implants, alien abduction therapists tell us, On August 28, 1995. television stations an examining Instrument, or taken an authentic sometimes accidentally fall out, but "In all but a owned by Rupert Murdoch ran what was pur­ photograph of the Interior of the ship, or come few of the cases the artifact has been lost or dis­ ported to be an autopsy of a dead alien, shot on back with detailed and verifiable scientific Infor­ carded." These abductees seem stupefying 16-mllllmeter film. Masked pauSologists in vin­ mation not hitherto available on Earth. Why not? Incurious. A strange ob)ect—possibly a transmit­ tage radiation-protection suits (with rectangular These failures must tell us something. ter sending telemetered data about the state of glass windows to see out of) cut up a large-eyed Since die middle of die twentieth century, your body to an alien spaceship somewhere 12-flngered figure and examined the internal we've been assured by proponents of the above the Earth—drops out of your nose; you organs. While the film was sometimes out of extraterrestrial hypothesis that physical evi­ idly examine It and then throw it In the garbage. focus, and the view of the cadaver often blocked dence—not star maps remembered from years Something like this Is true, we are told, of the by the humans crowding around It. some view­ ago, not scars, not disturbed soil, but real alien majority of abduction cases. ers found the effect chilling. The Times of technology—was in hand. The analysis would be A few such "implants" have been produced London, also owned by Murdoch, didn't know released momentarily. These claims go back to and examined by experts. None has been con­ what to make of it, although it did quote one the earliest crashed saucer scam of Newton and firmed as of unearthly manufacture. No compo­ padiologist who thought the autopsy performed GeBauer. Now it's decades later and we're sdll nents are made of unusual Isotopes, despite the with unseemly and unrealistic haste (ideal, waiting. Where are the articles published In die fact that other stars and other worlds are known diough, for television viewing). It was said to refereed scientific literature, In the metallurgical to be constituted of different notopic propor­ have been shot In New Mexico In 1947 by a par­ and ceramics journals, in publications of the tions dian the Earth. There are no metals from ticipant, now In his eighties, who wished to Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers, in the transurank "island of stability," where physi­ remain anonymous. What appeared to be the Science or Nature? cists rMnk there should be a new family of nonra- clincher was the announcement that the leader Such a discovery would be momentous. If 'ftmi.lrYi chemical elements unknown on Earth. of the film (its first few feet) contained coded diere were real artifacts, physicists and chemists What abduction enthusiasts considered the information that Kodak, die manufacturer, dated would be fighting for die privilege of discovering best case was that of Richard Price, who daims to 1947. However. It turns out diat the full film diat diere are aliens among us—who use, say, that aeens abducted him when he was eight years magazine was not presented to Kodak, but at unknown alloys, or materials of extraordinary old and Implanted a small artifact in his penis. A most the cut leader. For all we know, die leader tensile strength or ductility or conductivity. The quarter century later a physician confirmed a "for- could have been cut from a 1947 newsreel, practical implications of such a finding—never eign body" embedded there. After eight more abundantly archived In America, and the mind die confirmation of an alien invasion— years, K M out. Roughly a millimeter in diameter "autopsy" staged and filmed separately and would be Immense. Discoveries like this are and 4 milmeters long, it was carefully examined reeendy. There's a dragon footprint all right— what scientists live for. Their absence must tall by scientists from MIT and Massachusetts General but a fakaWe one. If this Is a hoax. It requires not us something. D

32 March/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER The continuum stretching from ill-practiced science, pseu- skills may, however, give us a false sense of confidence in our doscience, and superstition (New Age or Old), all the way to other talents. Our perceptions are fallible. We sometimes see respectable mystery religion, based on revelation, is indistinct. what isn't thete. We are prey to optical illusions. Occasionally we I try not to use the word "cult" in its usual meaning of a reli­ hallucinate. We are error-prone. A most illuminating book gion the speaker dislikes, but try to reach for the headstone of called How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human knowledge—do they really know what they claim to know? Reason in Everyday Life, by Thomas Gilovich, shows how people Everyone, it turns out, has relevant expertise. systematically err in understanding numbers, in rejecting I am critical of the excesses of theology, because at the extremes unpleasant evidence, in being influenced by the opinions of oth­ it is difficult to distinguish pseudoscience from rigid, doctrinaire ers. We're good in some things, but not in everything. Wisdom religion. Nevertheless, I want to acknowledge at the outset the lies in understanding our limitations. "For Man is a giddy prodigious diversity and complexity of religious thought and thing," teaches William Shakespeare. That's where the stuffy practice over the millennia; the growth of liberal religion and ecu­ skeptical rigor of science comes in. menical fellowship during the last century, and the fact that—as Perhaps the sharpest distinction between science and pseu­ in the Protestant Reformation, the rise of Reform Judaism, doscience is that science has a far keener appreciation of Vatican II, and the so-called higher criticism of the Bible—reli­ human imperfections and fallibility than does pseudoscience gion has fought (with varying degrees of success) its own excesses. (or "inerrant" revelation). If we resolutely refuse to acknowl­ But in parallel to the many scientists who seem reluctant to debate edge where we are liable to fall into error, then we can confi­ or even publicly discuss pseudoscience, many proponents of dently expect that error—even serious error, profound mis­ mainstream religions are reluctant to take on extreme conserva­ takes—will be our companion forever. But if we are capable of tives and fundamentalists. If the trend continues, eventually the a little courageous self-assessment, whatever rueful reflections field is theirs; they can win the debate by default. they may engender, our chances improve enormously. One religious leader writes to me of his longing for "disci­ If we teach only the findings and products of science—no plined integrity" in religion: matter how useful and even inspiring they may be—without communicating its critical method, how can the average per­ We have grown far too sentimental. . . . Dcvotionalism and son possibly distinguish science from pseudoscience? Both cheap psychology on one side, and arrogance and dogmatic then are presented as unsupported assettion. In Russia and intolerance on the other distort authentic religious life almost China, it used to be easy. Authoritative science was what the beyond recognition. Sometimes I come close to despair, but then I live tenaciously and always with hope. . . . Honest reli­ authorities taught. The distinction between science and pseu­ gion, more familiar than its critics with the distortions and doscience was made for you. No perplexities needed to be absurdities perpetrated in its name, has an active interest in muddled through. But when profound political changes encouraging a healthy skepticism for its own purposes. . . . occurred and strictures on free thought were loosened, a host There is the possibility for religion and science to forge a of confident or charismatic claims—especially those that told potent partnership against pseudo-science. Strangely, I think it would soon be engaged also in opposing pseudo-religion. us what we wanted to hear—gained a vast following. Every notion, however improbable, became authoritative.

Pseudoscience differs from erroneous science. Science It is a supteme challenge for the popularizer of science to thrives on errors, cutting them away one by one. False conclu­ make clear the actual, tortuous history of its great discoveries sions are drawn all the time, but they are drawn tentatively. and the misapprehensions and occasional stubborn refusal by Hypotheses are framed so they are capable of being disproved. its practitioners to change course. Many, perhaps most, science A succession of alternative hypotheses is confronted by exper­ textbooks for budding scientists tread lighdy here. It is enor­ iment and observation. Science gropes and staggers toward mously easier to present in an appealing way the wisdom dis­ improved understanding. Proprietary feelings are of course tilled from centuries of patient and collective interrogation of offended when a scientific hypothesis is disproved, but such Nature than to detail the messy distillation apparatus. The disproofs are recognized as central to the scientific enterprise. method of science, as stodgy and grumpy as it may seem, is far more important than the findings of science. Pseudoscience is just the opposite. Hypotheses are often framed precisely so they are invulnerable to any experiment that offers a prospect of disproof, so even in principle they Notes cannot be invalidated. Practitioners are defensive and wary. Skeptical scrutiny is opposed. When the pseudoscientific 1. "No thinking religious person believes this. Old hat," writes one of the referees of this book. But many "scientific creationists" not only believe it, but hypothesis fails to catch fire with scientists, conspiracies to are making increasingly aggressive and successful efforts to have it taught in suppress it are deduced. the schools, museums, zoos, and textbooks. Why? Because adding up die "begars." the ages of patriarchs and others in the Bible, gives such a figure, and Motor ability in healthy people is almost perfect. We rarely the Bible is "inerrant." stumble and fall, except in young and old age. We can learn 2. Although it's hard for me to see a more profound cosmic connection tasks such as riding a bicycle or skating or skipping, jumping than die astonishing findings of modem nuclear astrophysics: Except for hydrogen, all the atoms that make each of us up—the iron in our blood, the rope or driving a car, and retain that mastery for the rest of our calcium in our bones, the carbon in our brains—were manufactured in red lives. Even if we've gone a decade without doing it, it comes giant stars thousands of light-years away in space and billions of years ago in back to us effortlessly. The precision and retention of our motor time. We are, as I like to say, starsrufF. D

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER March/April 1996 33 Like Goes with Like The Role of Representativeness in Erroneous and Pseudoscientific Beliefs

The misguded premise that effects should resemble their causes underlies a host of erroneous beliefs, from folk wisdom about health and the human body to elaborate pseudoscientific belief systems.

THOMAS GILOVICH and KENNETH SAVITSKY

t was in 1983, at an infectious-disease conference in Brussells, that Barry Marshall, an internal-medicine resi­ Ident from Perth, Australia, first staked his startling claim. He argued that the peptic ulcer, a painful crater in the lining of the stomach or duodenum, was not caused by a stressful lifestyle as everyone had thought. Instead, the mal­ ady that afflicts millions of adults in the United States alone was caused by a simple bacterium, and thus could be cured using antibiotics (Hunter 1993; Monmaney 1993; Peterson 1991; Wandycz 1993). Although subsequent investigations have substantiated Marshall's claim (e.g., Hentschel et al. 1993), his colleagues initially were highly skeptical. Martin Blaser, director of the Division of Infectious Diseases at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, described Marshall's thesis as "the most

M»rch/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER preposterous thing I'd ever heard" (Monmaney 1993). What made the idea so preposterous? Why were die experts so resistant to Marshall's suggestion? There were undoubtedly many reasons. For one, die claim contradicted what most physi­ cians, psychiatrists, and psychologists knew (or thought they knew): Ulcers were caused by stress. As one author noted, "No physical ailment has ever been more closely tied to psychological turbulence" (Monmaney 1993. p. 64). In addition, science is necessarily and appropriately a rather conservative enter­ prise. Although insight, creativity, and even leaps of faith are vital to the endeavor, sound empirical evidence is the true coin of the realm. Much of the medical establishment's hesitation doubtless stemmed from the same healthy skepticism that readers of the

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER have learned to treasure. After all, Marshall's results at the time were suggestive at best—no cause-effect relationship had yet been established. But there may have been a third rea­ IRAD son for the reluctance to embrace Marshall's contention, a reason we explore in this article. The belief that ulcers derive from stress us to perceive the world accurately, but occasionally give rise is particularly seductive—for physicians and laypersons alike— to misperception and illusion. Consider their example of using because it flows from a general tendency of human judgment, clarity as a cue for distance. The clarity of an object is one cue a tendency to employ what psychologists Amos Tversky and people use to decide how far away it is. The cue typically Daniel Kahneman have called the "representativeness heuristic" works well because the farther away something is, the less dis­ (Kahneman and Tversky 1972, 1973; Tversky and Kahneman tinct it appears. On a particularly clear day, however, objects 1974, 1982). Indeed, we believe that judgment by representa­ can appear closer than they are, and on hazy days they can tiveness plays a role in a host of erroneous beliefs, from beliefs appear farther away. In some circumstances, then, this nor­ about health and the human body to handwriting analysis and mally accurate cue can lead to error. astrology (Gilovich 1991). We consider a sample of these Representativeness works much the same way. The represen­ beliefs in this article. tativeness heuristic involves a reflexive tendency to assess the sim­ ilarity of objects and events along salient dimensions and to orga­ The Representativeness Heuristic nize rhem on the basis of one overarching rule: "Like goes with like." Among other things, the representativeness heuristic Representativeness is but one of a number of heuristics that reflects die belief that a member of a given category ought to people use to render complex problems manageable. resemble the category prototype, and that an effect ought to Heuristics are often described as judgmental shortcuts that resemble die cause that produced it. Thus, the representativeness generally get us where we need to go—and quickly— but at heuristic is often used to assess whether a given instance the cost of occasionally sending us off course. Kahneman and belongs to a particular category, such as whether an individual Tversky liken them to perceptual cues, which generally enable is likely to be an accountant or a comedian. It is also used in assigning causes to effects, as when deciding whether a meal of Thomas Gilovich, professor of psychology at Cornell University spicy food caused a case of heartburn or determining whether and a Fellow of CSICOP, is the author of How We Know What an assassination was the product of a conspiracy.' Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life. Note that judgment by representativeness often works well. Kenneth Savitsky is a doctoral student in social psychology at Instances often resemble their category prototypes and causes Cornell University frequendy resemble their effects. Members of various occupa-

SKEPTICAl INQUIRER Mirch/Apnl 1996 35 tional groups, for example, frequently do resemble the group If you are like most people, you probably thought it was prototype. Likewise, "big" effects (such as the development of more likely that "Linda is a bank teller and is active in the fem­ the atomic bomb) are often brought about by "big" causes inist movement" than that "Linda is a bank tellet." It is easy to (such as the Manhattan Project). see why: A feminist bank teller is much more representative of Still, the representativeness heuristic is only that—a heuris­ the description of Linda than is "just" a bank teller. It reflects tic or shortcut. As with all shortcuts, the representativeness the political activism, social-consciousness, and left-of-center heuristic should be used with caution. Although it can help us politics implied in the description. to make some judgments with accuracy and ease, it can also It may make sense, but it cannot be. The category "bank lead us astray. Not all members fit the category prototype. teller" subsumes the category "is a bank teller and is active in Some comedians are shy or taciturn, and some accountants are the feminist movement." The latter therefore cannot be more wild and crazy. And although causes are frequendy representa­ likely than the former. Anyone who is a bank teller and is tive of their effects, this relationship does not always hold: active in the feminist movement is automatically also a bank Tiny viruses give rise to devastating epidemics like malaria or teller. Indeed, even if one thinks it is impossible for someone with Linda's description to be solely a "Heuristics are often described as judgmental bank teller (that is, one who is not a fem­ inist), being a bank teller is still as likely shortcuts that generally get us where we need to as being both. This error is referred to as go—and quickly—but at the cost of occasionally the "conjunction fallacy" because the probability of two events co-occurring sending us off course." (i.e., their conjunction) can never exceed the individual probability of either of the AIDS; and splitting the nucleus of an atom releases an awe­ constituents (Tversky and Kahneman 1982, 1983; Dawes and some amount of energy. In some cases, then, representative­ Mulford 1993). ness yields inaccuracy and error. Or even superstition. A nice Such is the logic of the situation. The psychology we bring example is provided by craps shooters, who roll the dice gen­ to bear on it is something else. If we start with an unrepresen­ tly to coax a low number, and more vigorously to encourage a tative outcome (being a bank teller) and then add a represen­ high one (Hanslin 1967). A small effect (low number) requires tative element (being active in the feminist movement), we a small cause (gende roll), and a big effect (high number) create a description that is at once more psychologically com­ requires a big cause (vigorous roll). pelling but objectively less likely. The rules of representative­ How might the belief in a stress-ulcer link derive from the ness do not follow the laws of probability. A detailed descrip­ conviction that like goes with like? Because the burning feel­ tion can seem compelling precisely because of the very details ing of an ulcerated stomach is not unlike the gut-wrenching, that, objectively speaking, actually make it less likely. Thus, stomach-churning feeling of extreme stress (albeit more someone may be less concerned about dying during a trip to severe), the link seems natural: Stress is a representative cause the Middle East than about dying in a terrorist attack while of an ulcer.2 But as Marshall suggested (and subsequent there, even though the probability of death due to a particular research has borne out), the link may be overblown. Stress cause is obviously lower than the probability of death due to alone does not appear to cause ulcers (Glavin and Szabo 1992; the set of all possible causes. Likewise, the probability of global Soil 1990). economic collapse can seem remote until one sketches a detailed scenario in which such a collapse follows, say, the Representativeness and the Conjunction Fallacy destruction of the oil fields in the Persian Gulf. Once again, the additional details make the outcome less likely at the same One of the most compelling demonstrations of how the rep­ time that they make it more psychologically compelling. resentativeness heuristic can interfere with sound judgment comes from a much-discussed experiment in which partici­ Representativeness and Causal Judgments pants were asked to consider the following description (Tversky and Kahneman 1982, 1983): Most of the empirical research on the representativeness heuristic is similar to the work on the conjunction fallacy in Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She that the judgments people make are compared to a normative majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned standard—in this case, to the laws of probability. The delete­ with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also par­ rious effect of judgment by representativeness is thereby estab­ ticipated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. lished by the failure to meet such a standard. Previous work Now, based on the above description, rank the following statements about Linda, from most to least likely: conducted in this fashion has shown, for example, that judg­ a. Linda is an insurance salesperson. ment by representativeness leads people to commit the "gam­ b. Linda is a bank teller. bler's fallacy," to overestimate the reliability of small samples of c. Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist move­ data, and to be insufficiendy "regressive" in making predic­ ment. tions under conditions of uncertainty.

36 Match/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER The ulcer example with which we began this article does which possesses any medicinal virtue indicates by an obvious not have this property of being obviously at variance with a and well-marked external character the disease for which it is clear-cut normative standard. The same is true of nearly all a remedy, or the object for which it should be employed" examples of die impact of representativeness on causal judg­ (quoted in Nisbett and Ross 1980, p. 116). Thus, physicians ments: It can be difficult to establish with certainty that a prescribed the lungs of the fox (known for its endurance) for judgmental error has been made. Pardy for this reason, there asthmatics, and the yellow spice turmeric for jaundice. Again, has been less empirical research on representativeness and disease and cure are linked because rhey resemble one another. causal judgments than on odier areas, such as representative­ Or consider the popularity of homeopathy, which derives ness and the conjunction fallacy. This is not because represen­ from the eighteenth century work of die German physician tativeness is rhought to have little impact on causal judgments, Samuel Hahnemann (Barrett 1987). One of the bedrock prin­ but because without a clear-cut normative standard it is sim­ ciples of homeopathy is Hahnemann's "law of similars," ply more difficult to conduct research in this domain. The according to which die key to discovering what substance will research that has been conducted, furthermore, is more sug­ cure a particular disorder lies in noting the effect that various gestive than definitive. Nonetheless, the suggestive evidence is substances have on healthy people. If a substance causes a par­ rather striking, and it points to the possibility that representa­ ticular reaction in an unafflicted person, then it is seen as a tiveness may exert at least as much influence over causal judg­ likely cure for a disease characterized by those same symptoms. ments as it does over other, more exhaustively researched types As before, the external symptoms of a disease are used to iden­ of judgments. To see how much, we discuss some examples of tify a cure for the disease—a cure that manifests die same representativeness-thinking in medicine, in pseudoscientific external characteristics. systems, and in psychoanalysis. Of course, there are instances in which substances that cause particular symptoms are used effectively as pan of a Representativeness and Medical Beliefs therapeutic regimen to cure, alleviate, or prevent those very symptoms. Vaccines deliver small quantities of disease-causing One area in which die impact of representativeness on causal viruses to help individuals develop immunities. Likewise, judgments is particularly striking is the domain of health and allergy sufferers sometimes receive periodic doses of die exact medicine. Historically, people have often assumed diat die substance to which they are allergic so that they will develop a symptoms of a disease should resemble either its cause or its tolerance over time. The problem with the dubious medical cure (or both). In ancient Chinese medicine, for example, peo­ practices described above is die general assumption diat die ple widi vision problems were fed ground bat in the mistaken symptoms of a disease should resemble its cause, its cure, or both. Limiting the scope of possible cures to those that are belief that bats had particularly keen vision and that some of representative of the disease can seriously impede scientific this ability might be transferred to the recipient (Deutsch discovery. Such a narrow focus, for example, would have 1977). Evans-Pritchard (1937) noted many examples of die influence of representativeness among die African Azande (although he dis­ "In ancient Chinese medicine, for example, people cussed them in the context of magical- diinking, not representativeness). For with vision problems were fed ground bat in the instance, die Azande used die ground mistaken belief that bats had particularly keen skull of die red bush monkey to cure epilepsy. Why? The cure should resemble vision and that some of this ability might be die disease, so the herky-jerky move­ transferred to the recipient." ments of die monkey make die essence of monkey appear to be a promising candidate to setde die vio­ inhibited the discovery of the two most significant develop­ lent movements of an epileptic seizure. As Evans-Pritchard ments of modern medicine: sanitation and antibiotics. (quoted in Nisbett and Ross 1980, p. 116) put it: Representativeness-thinking continues to abound in modern "alternative" medicine, a pursuit that appears to be gaining in Generally the logic of therapeutic treatment consists in the perceived legitimacy (Cowley, King, Hager, and Rosenberg selection of the most prominent external symptoms, the nam­ ing of the disease after some object in nature it resembles, and 1995). An investigation by Congress into health fraud and the utilization of the object as the principal ingredient in the quackery noted several examples of what appear to be interven­ drug administered to cure the disease. The circle may even be tions inspired by die superficial appeal of representativeness completed by belief that the external symptoms not only yield (U.S. Congress, House Subcommittee on Health and Long- to treatment by the object which resembles them but are Term Care 1984). In one set of suggested treatments, patients caused by it as well. are encouraged to eat raw organ concentrates corresponding to Western medical practice has likewise been guided by die the dysfunctional body pan: e.g., brain concentrates for mental representativeness heuristic. For instance, early Western medi­ disorders, heart concentrates for cardiac conditions, and raw cine was strongly influenced by what was known as die "doc­ stomach lining for ulcers. Similarly, die fingerprints of repre­ trine of signatures," or die belief that "every natural substance sentativeness are all over the practice of "rebirthing," a New Age

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER March/April 1996 37 therapeutic technique in which individuals attempt to reenact the belief that individuals tend to acquire the attributes of the their own births in an effort to correct personality defects caused food they ingest. Simple representativeness. by having been born in an "unnatural" fashion (Ward 1994). One person who was born breech (i.e., feet first) underwent the Representativeness and Pseudoscientific Beliefs rebirthing procedure to cure his sense that his life was always going in the wrong direction and that he could never seem to A core tenet of the field of astrology is that an individual's per­ get things "the right way round." Another, born Caesarean, sonality is influenced by the astrological sign under which he sought the treatment because of a lifelong difficulty with seeing or she was born (Huntley 1990). A glance at the personality things to completion, and always relying on others to finish types associated with the various astrological signs reveals an tasks for her. As one author quipped, "God knows what damage uncanny concordance between the supposed personality of forceps might inflict ... a lifelong neurosis that you're being someone with a particular sign and the characteristics associ­ dragged where you don't want to go?" (Ward 1994, p. 90). ated with the sign's namesake (Huntley 1990; Howe 1970; A more rigorous examination of the kind of erroneous Zusne and Jones 1982). Those born under the sign of the goat beliefs about health and the human body that can arise from (Capricorn) are said to be tenacious, hardworking, and stub­ the appeal of representativeness has dealt with the adage, "You born; whereas those born under the lion (Leo) are proud, are what you eat." Just how far do people take this idea? In cer­ forceful leaders. Likewise, those born under the sign of Cancer tain respects, the saying is undeniably true: Bodies are com­ (the crab) share with their namesake a tendency to appear hard posed to a large extent of the molecules that were once on the outside; while inside their "shells" they are soft and vul­ ingested as food. Quite literally, we are what we have eaten. nerable. One treatment of astrology goes so far as to suggest Indeed, there are times when we take on the character of what that, like the crab, those born under the sign of Cancer tend we ingest: People gain weight by eating fatty foods, and a per­ to be "deeply attached to their homes" (Read et al. 1978). son's skin can acquire an orange tint from the carotene found What is the origin of these associations? They are not in carrots and tomatoes. But the notion that we develop the empirically derived, as they have been shown time and time characteristics of the food we eat sometimes goes beyond such again to lack validity (e.g., Carlson 1985; Dean 1987; for examples to almost magical extremes. The Hua of Papua New reviews see Abell 1981; Schick and Vaughn 1995; Zusne and Guinea, for example, believe that individuals will grow quickly Jones 1982). Instead, they are conceptually driven by simple, if they eat rapidly growing food (Meigs 1984, cited by representativeness-based assessments of the personalities that Nemeroff and Rozin 1989). should be associated with various astrological signs. After all, But what about a more "scientifically minded"population? who is more likely to be retiring and modest than a Virgo (the Psychologists Carol Nemeroff and Paul Rozin (1989) asked virgin)? Who better to be well balanced, harmonious, and fair college students to consider a hypothetical culture known as than a Libra (the scales)? By taking advantage of people's the "Chandorans," who hunt wild boar and marine turtles. reflexive associations, the system gains plausibility among Some of the students learned that the Chandorans hunt tur­ those disinclined to dig deeper. tles for their shells, and wild boar for their meat. The others And it doesn't stop there. Consider another elaborate "scien­ heard the opposite: The tribe hunts turdes for their meat, and tific" system designed to assess the "secrets" of an individual's per­ boar for their tusks. sonality—graphology, or handwriting analysis. Corporations pay After reading one of the two descriptions of the graphologists sizable fees to help screen job applicants by devel­ oping personality profiles of those who 'The representativeness heuristic should be apply for jobs (Neter and Ben-Shakhar 1989). Graphologists are also called upon used with caution. Although it can help us to to provide "expert" testimony in trial pro­ make some judgments with accuracy and ease, ceedings, and to help the Secret Service determine if any real danger is posed by it can also lead us astray." threatening letters to government officials (Scanlon and Mauro 1992). How much Chandorans, the students were asked to rate the tribe mem­ stock can we put in the work of handwriting analysts? bers on numerous characteristics. Their responses reflected a Unlike astrology, graphology is not worthless. It has been, belief that the characteristics of the food that was eaten would and continues to be, the subject of careful empirical investiga­ "rub off" onto the tribe members. Boar-eaters were thought to tion (Nevo 1986), and it has been shown that people's hand­ be more aggressive and irritable than their counterparts—and writing can reveal certain things about them. Particularly more likely to have beards! The turtle-eaters were thought to shaky writing can be a clue that an individual suffers from live longer and be better swimmers. some neurological disorder that causes hand tremors; whether However educated a person may be (the participants in a person is male or female is often apparent from his or her Nemeroff and Rozin's experiment were University of writing. In general, however, what handwriting analysis can Pennsylvania undergraduates), it can be difficult to get beyond determine most reliably tends to be things that can be more the assumption that like goes with like. In this case, it leads to reliably ascertained through other means. As for the "secrets"

3t March/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER of an individual's personality, graphology has yet to show that authority figures. Knowledge of the representativeness heuris­ it is any better than astrology. tic compels one to wonder whether such connections reflect This has not done much to diminish the popularity of something important about the psyche of the client, or handwriting analysis, however. One reason for this is that whedier they exist primarily in the mind of the therapist. graphologists, like astrologers, gain some surface plausibility One area of psychodynamic dieorizing in which die valid­ or "lace validity" for their claims by exploiting the tendency ity of such superficially plausible relationships has been tested for people to employ the representativeness heuristic. Many of and found wanting is die use of projective tests. The most their claims have a superficial "sensible" quality, rarely violat­ widely known projective test is die Rorschach, in which clients ing the principle that like goes with like. Consider, for report what they "see" in ambiguous blotches of ink on cards. instance, die "zonal theory" of graphology, which divides a As in all projective tests, the idea is diat in responding to such person's handwriting into die upper, middle, and lower an unstructured stimulus, a person must "project," and thus regions. A person's "intellectual," "practical," and "instinctual" reveal, some of his or her inner dynamics. Coundess studies, qualities supposedly correspond to the different regions (Basil however, have failed to produce evidence that the test is 1989). Can you guess which is which? Could our "lower" valid—diat is, diat die assessments made about people on the instincts be reflected anywhere other than the lower region, or basis of die test correspond to the psychopathological condi­ our "higher" intellect anywhere otiier than the top? tions from which diey suffer (Burros 1978).' The list of such representativeness-based "connections" The research findings notwithstanding, clinicians fre- goes on and on. Handwriting slants to the left? The person quendy report the Rorschach to be extremely helpful in clini­ must be holding something back, repressing his or her true cal practice. Might representativeness contribute to this para­ emotions. Slants to the right? The person gets carried away by dox of strongly held beliefs coexisting with the absence of any his or her feelings. A signature placed far below a paragraph real relationship? You be the judge. A person who interprets suggests that the individual wishes to distance himself or her­ the whole Rorschach card, and not its specific details, is con­ self from what was written (Scanlon and Mauro 1992). Handwriting that stays "Although skepticism is a vital component of critical close to the left margin belongs to indi­ viduals attached to the past, whereas thought, it should not be based on an excessive writing that hugs the right margin comes adherence to the principle that like goes with like." from those oriented toward the future. What is ironic is that the very mechanism that many graphol­ sidered by clinicians to suffer from a need to form a "big pic­ ogists rely upon to argue for the persuasive value of their ture," and a tendency toward grandiosity, even paranoia. In endeavor—that die character of the handwriting resembles the contrast, a person who refers only to small details of die ink character of the person—is what ultimately betrays them: They blots is considered to have an obsessive personality—someone call it "common sense"; we call it judgment by representativeness. who attends to detail at die expense of the more important holistic aspects (Dawes 1994). Once again, systematic research Representativeness and Psychoanalysis has failed to find evidence for these relationships, but the sense of representativeness gives them some superficial plausibility. Two prominent social psychologists, Richard Nisbett and Lee Ross, have argued that "the enormous popularity of Freudian Conclusion theory probably lies in the fact that, unlike all its competitors among contemporary views, it encourages the layperson to do We have described numerous erroneous beliefs that appear to what comes naturally in causal explanation, that is, to use the derive from the overuse of the representativeness heuristic. representativeness heuristic" (Nisbett and Ross 1980, p. 244). Many of them arise in domains in which the reach for solu­ Aldiough this claim would be difficult to put to empirical test, tions to important problems exceeds our grasp—such as the there can be little doubt diat much of the interpretation of attempt to uncover (via astrology or handwriting analysis) symbols that lies at the core of psychoanalytic dieory is driven simple cues to the complexities of human motivation and per­ by representativeness. Consider die interpretation of dreams, sonality. In such domains in which no simple solutions exist, in which the images a client reports from his or her dreams are and yet die need or desire for such solutions remains strong, considered indicative of underlying motives. An infinite num­ people often let down their guard. Dubious cause-effect links ber of potential relationships exist between dream content and are then uncritically accepted because they satisfy the principle underlying psychodynamics, and it is interesting that virtually of like goes with like. ail of die "meaningful" ones identified by psychodynamically Representativeness can also have the opposite effect, oriented clinicians are ones in which there is an obvious fit or resemblance between the reported image and inner dynamics. inhibiting belief in valid claims that violate die expectation of A man who dreams of a snake or a cigar is thought to be trou­ resemblance. People initially scoffed at Walter Reed's sugges­ bled by his penis or his sexuality. People who dream of police­ tion diat malaria was carried by die mosquito. From a repre­ men are thought to be concerned about dieir fathers or sentativeness standpoint, it is easy to see why: The cause (a tiny mosquito) is not at all representative of the result (a dev-

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER March/April 1996 39 astating disease). Reed's claim violated the notion that big result from conjunction effects in memory. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 18(1) (Fall): 50-51. effects should have big causes, and thus was difficult to accept Dean, G. 1987. Does astrology need to be true? Pan 2: The answer is no. (Nisbett and Ross 1980). Although skepticism is a vital com­ SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 11(3) (Spring): 257-273. ponent of critical thought, it should not be based on an exces­ Deutsch, R.M. 1977, The New Nuts among the Berries: How Nutrition Nonsense Captured America. Palo Alto, Calif.: Ball Publishing. sive adherence to die principle that like goes with like. Evans-Pritchard, E. E. 1937. Witchcraft, Oracles and Magic among the Azande. Indeed, it is often those discoveries that violate the expected Oxford: Clarendon. resemblance between cause and effect that are ultimately hailed Exner, J. E. 1986. The Rorschach: A Comprehensive System. 2d ed. New York: John Wiley. as significant breakthroughs, as with the discovery of Helico­ Gilovich, T 1991. How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human bacter pylori, as die ulcer-causing bacterium is now named. As Reason in Everyday Life. New York: The Free Press. one author put it, "The discovery of Helicobacter is no crummy Glavin, G. B., and S. Szabo. 1992. Experimental gastric mucosal injury: Laboratory models reveal mechanisms of pathogenesis and new therapeu­ little shift. It's a mindblower—tangible, reproducible, unex­ tic strategies. FASEB Journal 6: 825-831. pected, and, yes, revolutionary. Just die fact that a bug causes Hanslin, J. M. 1967. Craps and magic. American Journal of Sociology 73: 316- peptic ulcers, long considered die cardinal example of a psy­ 330. Hentschel, E„ G. Brandstatter, B. Dragosics, A. M. Hirschel, H. Nemec, K. chosomatic illness, is a spear in die breast of New Age medi­ Schutze, M. Taufer, and H, Wurzer. 1993. Effect of ranitidine and amox­ cine" (Monmaney 1993, p. 68). Given these stakes, one might icillin plus metronidazole on the eradication of Helicobacter pylori and be advised to avoid an overreliance on the shortcut of repre­ the recurrence of duodenal ulcer. New England Journal of Medicine 328: sentativeness, and instead to devote the extra effort needed to 308-312. Howe, E. 1970. Astrology. In Man, Myth, and Magic: An Illustrated Encyclo­ make accurate judgments and decisions. (But not too much pedia of the Supernatural, ed. by R Cavendish. New York: Marshall effort—you wouldn't want to give yourself an ulcer.) Cavendish. Hunter, B. T. 1993. Good news for gastric sufferers. Consumer's Research 76 (October): 8-9. Notes Huntley, J. 1990. The Elements of Astrology Shaftesbury, Dorset, Great Britain: Element Books. We thank Dennis Regan for his helpful comments on an earlier draft of this Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky. 1972. Subjective piobability: A judgment of article. representativeness. Cognitive Psychology 3: 430-454. l.The reason that the heuristic has been dubbed "representativeness" Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky. 1973. On the psychology of prediction. rather than, say, "resemblance" or "similarity" is that it also applies in circum­ stances in which the assessment of "fit" is not based on similarity. For exam­ Psychological Review 80: 237-251. ple, when assessing whether a scries of coin flips was produced by tossing a fair Meigs, AS. 1984. Food Sex, and Pollution: A New Guinea Religion. New coin, people's judgments are influenced in pan by whether the sequence is Brunswick, N.J.: Rutgers University Press. representative of one produced by a fair coin. A sequence of five heads and five Monmaney, T 1993. Marshall's hunch. The New Yorker 69 (September 20): tails is a representative outcome, but a sequence of nine heads and one tail is 64-72. not. Note, however, that a fifty-fiftyspli t does not make the sequence "simi­ Nemeroff, C, and P. Rozin. 1989. 'You are what you eat": Applying the lar" to a fair coin, but it does make it representative of one. demand-free 'impressions' technique to an unacknowledged belief. Ethos 2. Some theories of the link between stress and ulcers are even more tinged 17: 50-69. with representativeness. Since the symptoms of an ulcer manifest themselves Neter, E., and G. Ben-Shakhar. 1989. The predictive validity of graphologies! in the stomach, the cause "should" involve something that is highly charac­ inferences: A meta-analytic approach. Personality and Individual teristic of the stomach as well, such as hunger and nourishment. Thus, one Differences (10) 737-745. theorist asserts, "The critical factor in the development of ulcers is the frus­ Nevo, B. 1986. ed. Scientific Aspects of Graphology: A Handbook. Springfield, tration associated with the wish to receive love—when this wish is rejected, it III.: Charles C. Thomas. is converted into a wish to be fed," leading ultimately "to an ulcer." Echoing Nisbett, R, and L. Ross. 1980. Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings such ideas, James Masterson writes in his book The Search for the Real Selfx\ai of Social Judgment. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall. ulcers affect those who are "hungering for emotional supplies that were lost in Peterson, W L. 1991. Helicobacter pylori and peptic ulcer disease. New childhood or that wetc never sufficient to nourish the real self" (both quoted England Journal of Medicine 324: 1043-1048. in Monmaney 1993). Read, A. W. et al. eds. 1978. Funk and Wagnalls New Comprehensive Inter­ 3. Actually, a nonprojective use of the Rorschach, called the Exner System, national Dictionary of the English Language. New York: Publishers Guild has been shown to have some validity (Exner 1986). The system is based on Press. the fact that some of the inkblots do look like various objects, and a person's Scanlon, M., and J. Mauro. 1992. The lowdown on handwriting analysis: Is responses are scored for the number and proportion that fail to reflect this cor­ it for real? Psychology Today (November/December): 46-53; 80. respondence. Unlike the usual Rorschach procedure, which is subjectively Schick, T, and L Vaughn. 1995. How to Think about Weird Things: Critical scored, the Exner system is a standardized test. Thinking fir a New Age. Mountain View, Calif.: Mayfield Publishing Company. References Soil, A. H. 1990. Pathogenesis of peptic ulcer and implications for therapy. New England Journal of Medicine 322: 909-916. Abell, G. O. 1981. Astrology. In Science and the Paranormal: Probing the Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman. 1974. Judgment under uncertainty: Heur­ Existence of the Supernatural, ed. by G. O. Abell and B. Singer. New York: istics and biases. Science 185: 1124-1131. Charles Scribner's Sons. Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman. 1982. Judgments of and by representativeness. Barrett, S. 1987. Homeopathy: Is it medicine? SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 12(1) In Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, ed. by D. Kahneman, (Fall): 56-62. R Slovic, and A Tversky. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Basil, R. 1989. Graphology and personality: Let the buyer beware. SKEPTICAL Tversky. A., and D. Kahneman. 1983. Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: INQUIRER 13 (3) (Spring): 241-243. The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. Psychological Review 90: Burros, O. K. 1978. Mental Measurement Yearbook. 8th ed. Highland Park, 293-315. N.J.: Gryphon Press. U.S. Congress. 1984. Quackery: A $10 Billion Scandal A Report by the Carlson, S. 1985. A double-blind test of astrology. Nature 318: 419-425- Chairman of the (House) Subcommittee on Health and Long-Term Care. Cowley, G„ P King, M. Hager, and D. Rosenberg. 1995. Going mainstream. Washington, D.C.: United States Government Printing Office. Newsweek June 26: 56-57. Wandycz. K. 1993. The H. pylori factor. Forbes 152 (August 2): 128. Dawes, R. M. 1994. House of Cards: Psychology and Psychotherapy Built onWard . R. 1994. Maternity ward. Mirabella (February): 89-90. Myth. New York: Free Press. Zusne, L. and W H. Jones 1982. Anomalistic Psychology. Hillsdale. N.J.: Dawes, R M., and M. Mulford. 1993. Diagnoses of alien kidnappings that Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. O

40 March/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Staking Claims: The Vampires of Folklore and Fiction

We know about Dracula and the would-be vampires in the news, but what were the "real" vampires all about?

PAUL BARBER

eople who learn that I wrote a book on vampire lore Poften say, "Oh, you mean like Vlad Drakul?" "Not actually," I tell them. "Vlad Drakul was a figure in Romanian history whose only association with the vampire lore is that Bram Stoker named the character Dracula after him. Until Dracula came out, no one ever associated the his­ torical figure with the vampire lore." This has been pointed out many times, and the Romanians have often expressed their dismay over the way we have expropriated their national hero and made him into a vampire. But in the media the sensational always has an edge on the prosaic, and by being associated with vampires—even if only via fic­ tion—Vlad Drakul has become the only figure in Romanian history that Americans have ever heard about. If the Romanians began to make movies portraying George Washington as a ghoul, we would know what they feel like. Here we see fiction becoming "historical fact," while the

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER March/April 1996 41 mythologies. One of these is Stephan Kaplan, who I think—but I'm never -is a notoriety freak who is putting us on and hav­ ing a wonderful time doing it. For exam­ ple, he was quoted recendy as saying that vampires can come out in the daytime, they just need to wear a sunblock of 15 or higher. As wit, this ranks among the best things I've heard recently, right up there with the story that »' the Florida citrus

industry is trying to get O. J. Simpson to change his first name to Snapple. I suspect that Kaplan will one day call a press conference, wearing a silly hat, and say, "I was just fooling, and you fell for it!" I got a call from the BBC a while back asking me for my reaction to Kaplan's announcement that Los Angeles is awash in vampires. To me this is like an adult asking me what Santa Claus brought me this year: The ques­ tion had better be ironic, and the answer may as well be. So I told the interviewer that it was true that vampires are every­ where in Los Angeles, but because of the muggers they're afraid to go out at night. The folklore of the vampire has only a slight connection with the fiction, much the way the folklore of ghosts has little to do with the movie Ghostbusters. Most people aren't aware mat, through­ out European history, there have been extensive and detailed accounts of bodies in graveyards being dug up, declared to be vam­ pires, and killed. I took some years out of my life to study these accounts and find out what in the world could have caused people to set out to kill dead bodies. And here we encounter our first real/non-real boundary: the digging up of the bodies was unquestion­ ably real—indeed, beyond any doubt. We know this because we have a vast array of evidence to that scholars who try to correct the "facts" find that they have no effect, both archaeological and documentary, including highly hope of getting equal time with the people who purvey detailed accounts written by literate outsiders, who gave infor­ mation that they could not possibly have made up. For exam­ Paul Border is a research associate with the Fowler Museum of ple, unless you are a forensic pathologist, you probably don't Cultural History, University of California, Los Angeles 90024-1549, know that decomposing bodies may undergo a process called and author of Vampires, Burial, and Death: Folklore and Reality.

42 Match/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER "skin slippage," in which die epidermis flakes away from the this phenomenon that allows medical examiners to determine dermis. The following account, from the eighteenth century, whether a body has been moved after deadi: If lividity is pre­ tells of the exhumation of a man named Peter Plogojowitz and sent where it shouldn't be, or not present where it should, dien remarks on mis phenomenon: "The hair and beard—even the the body has been moved. nails, of which the old ones had fallen away—had grown on 4. "There is fresh blood at the mouth." The adjective [the corpse]; the old skin, which was somewhat whitish, had "fresh" is less puzzling if we suppose that the author hasn't peeled away, and a new fresh one had emerged under it. . . . actually tested the blood for freshness. What he was surely Not without astonishment, I saw some fresh blood in his observing, and confused by, was the fact that the blood was mouth, which, according to die common observation, he had liquid. This was remarked on many times by people who sucked from the people killed by him." When we see remarks observed such exhumations. It is simply not unusual. In fact, about skin slippage, we know that the author has either (a) tad blood normally coagulates at death, then either remains coag­ a text on forensic pathology or (b) looked at, or heard about, a ulated or becomes liquid again.' The reason the blood decomposing corpse. migrates to die mouth is that the body, as it decomposes, Yet here we are confronted with a predicament: If our bloats from the gases produced by decomposition, and this source is right about skin slippage, what are we to make of his bloating puts pressure on the lungs, which are rich in blood evidence that die dead body had been drinking blood from die and deteriorate early on, so that blood is forced to die mouth living? The answer, of course, is that we are not obliged to and nose. believe our informants interpretations, let alone those of his And did you notice that we were just told why people informants, just because he is giving us an accurate description believed that the dead sucked blood from the living? The stan­ of a corpse. Scholars have always thrown out the observations dard theory about death was that it came from the dead, and because they didn't believe the interpretations. This is not as when people dug up the first victim of an epidemic and found odd as it might seem, for often description and interpretation that he had blood at his mouth, they concluded that he had are run together, as in such a statement as "the body came to sucked die blood from the other people who had died. "Not life and cried out when it was staked." But we'll get to that in without astonishment," says our author, "I saw some fresh a moment. blood in his mouth, which, according to the common obser­ For now, let's slow down and look carefully at die observa­ vation, he had sucked from the people killed by him." tions in the account we have quoted: Moreover, the bloating of the body was taken for evidence that 1. "The hair and beard have grown on the corpse." Sorry, this it was full to bursting with the blood of its victims. just doesn't happen, even though many people believe it even So we have cleared up an old mystery merely by paying today. It can appear to happen, however, because die skin may attention to the people who, centuries ago, tried to tell us shrink back after death and make hair and beard more visible. about it. From here on things will be easier: If our informants 2. "The nails have fallen off and new ones have grown." tell us that the vampire "came to life and cried out" when they The nails do in fact fall off as a body decomposes. The drove a stake through him, we shall accept the observation and Egyptians were aware of this and dealt with it eidier by tying reject die conclusion: Yes, a body would "cry out" if you drove the nails to die fingers and toes or by putting metal thimbles a stake into it, because doing so forces air past the glottis—but over the up of each finger or toe. The "new nails," according this is not because the body is still alive. Among modern med­ to Thomas Noguchi, former medical examiner for Los ical examiners, there is remarkable agreement on both points. Angeles, were probably an interpretation of the nail bed. The vampire lore did not die when people worked out foren­ 3. "The old skin has peeled away and new skin has emerged sic pathology: by that time it had become part of literature. The under it." This is skin slippage: epidermis and dermis. Many accounts remark also 'The folklore of the vampire has only a slight connec­ on die "ruddy" or "dark" color of the tion with the fiction, much the way the folklore of corpse, a phenomenon that may be caused by decomposition and a variety of ghosts has little to do with the movie Ghostbusters." other diings as well. Contrary to popular belief, the face of a corpse is not necessarily pale at all, since pal­ folkloric vampires had been peasants, but in the eighteenth cen­ lor results from the blood draining from the tissues. If die per­ tury, authors were still reluctant to make peasants into major son was supine when he or she died, the face of the corpse may characters in stories, so the fictional vampire was moved into the be pale; if prone, the face may be dark. Those parts of the upper classes. By the time of Bram Stoker's Dracula (1897), he corpse that are lower than the rest may be gorged with blood had became a pallid count, rather than die ruddy peasant of the that, having lost its oxygen, is dark and causes die skin to folklore. Along the way, Linnaeus named a Central American appear dark as well. And the parts that are under pressure— bat after the European vampire, since the bat lived on blood, where the weight of the body is distributed—may be light in and the fiction writers, noting this, added the bat to die store of color because die (now dark) blood has been forced away from their motifs. This is why, in modern movies, vampires are apt to the tissues. The dark coloration resulting from the saturation of turn into bats in the night, when they need to go somewhere the tissues with blood is called "livor mortis" or "lividity." It is quickly.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER March/April 1996 43 Oddly, when this material became fiction, it once again cretions and made a firm resolution not to view other cultures became "fact," for nowadays the media keep digging up not as inferior to that of die anthropologist. Indeed, it took us just scholars and pseudoscholars who talk about the folklore many decades to figure out that "primitive" cultures aren't any but also people who actually claim to be vampires. The schol­ younger than "advanced" ones. But their attempt at dispassion ars and the vampires are brought together by their common discouraged anthropologists from making distinctions: Now fate: The media trot them out every year around Halloween. you're not supposed to notice when someone from another cul­ The modern "vampires" derive their inspiration not from the ture is simply wrong about something. Indeed, it's no longer perfectly good material from folklore, which in fact has been ideally correct to make distinctions at all between right and sadly neglected, but from the fiction, perhaps because it is wrong ideas, unless of course they are the ideas of our own cul­ more dramatic and coherent. The folklore is about cantanker­ ture. So it doesn't bother us to say that Copernicus corrected ous peasants who come back as spirits to torment their nearest Ptolemy, but it does bother us if I point out that nonliterate and dearest, and this simply doesn't translate into a glamorous cultures typically misunderstand the events of decomposition. lifestyle. So our modern "vampires" drive hearses, cap their What is odd about our modern view is that it appears to be the canine teeth, and wear cloaks when they go out at night. None very kind of patronizing that we are trying to get rid of. of these things has anything whatever to do with the folklore One review of my book complained about my applying sci­ of the vampire—even the canines are an artifact of the fic­ entific discourse to my subject. The reviewer did not suggest an tional tradition. Some modern "vampires" claim a taste for alternative mode of interpretation—intuition, perhaps? But the blood and tell stories of raids on bloodbanks and of obliging reason I studied this particular aspect of the folklore is that it is friends who let them open a vein. replete with evidence, and evidence lends itself to analysis bet­ The baffling part of this is that the modern "vampires" are ter than hunches or intuition. One objective of the serious claiming kinship not with the vampire that our ancestors actu­ scholar, it seems to me, is to find likely subjects, ones where ally believed in but with the fictional vampire derived from there is enough evidence to base an argument on. I have had that one. This is like somebody claiming to be related to Rhett several fruitless discussions with television directors who wanted me to tell them not just more about the vampire lore than I know, but "By the eighteenth century the vampire was a certi­ more than can even be known. "What fiably dead body that was believed to retain a kind about the really early stuff?" one woman kept asking. "What about the of life and had to be 'killed' in order to prevent it Paleolithic?" from killing other people." But we simply don't have any clear evidence from the Paleolithic. The liter­ Butler in the movie Gone with the Wind. "You mean Clark ary evidence, going from present to past, continues to change Gable," you say. "No, no: Rhett Butler. You know, the charac­ subtly until finally you would be hard put to identify the ter in the movie. He's my cousin." And, lacking anything fur­ "vampire" phenomenon at all. Early Greek views of the dead ther to say, you ask, "Do you and Rhett talk a lot?" But in its have much in common with the later vampire lore, but no one way, theirs is a successful lifestyle, for those of us who study would identify Patroclus as a "vampire" simply because he the folklore have long since become accustomed to getting two appears to Achilles after his own death. And the early archae­ minutes on television programs that then give ten minutes to ological evidence is often ambiguous: People may put slabs of a ditsy lady who sleeps in a coffin. And anyone can get media stone over graves either to keep the dead from returning or to attention who will bring up Vlad Drakul or even the mori­ keep animals from digging into a grave. bund porphyria theory, which supposes that people really were The fact is, no one leaves documents around explaining the drinking blood to cure their rare disease, even though we have things that everyone knows. It is only much later that it occurs no evidence either that drinking blood would alleviate the to anyone to wonder about those things—when it is too late, symptoms of porphyria or that any live people were accused of and they are no longer known. So we will almost surely never drinking blood—it was always corpses. This theory never got know anything about the origins of the vampire lore. The beyond the wild hypothesis stage but has historical interest for most we can know is that by the eighteenth century the vam­ following the trend that confuses folklore with fiction. I pire was a certifiably dead body that was believed to retain a describe it as "moribund," but such theories seemingly never kind of life and had to be "killed" in order to prevent it from die in the media, no matter how often they are demolished by killing other people. And, of course, we now know that the evidence and argument. By now you couldn't kill the por­ misconceptions about the folklore have proved to be more phyria theory with a stake. viable than the folklore itself. The peculiarities of this subject have a way of compounding themselves with time. We have seen how confusing it is to have Note data in which accurate observation and inaccurate interpreta­ 1. There are other correlations here that I've dealt with in detail in i book: tion are all balled up together. As the discipline of anthropol­ Vampires, Burial, and Death: folklore and Reality. New Haven: Yale University ogy formed and took shape, it looked back on its earlier indis­ Press, 1988. D

44 March/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER BOOK REVIEWS

A Plague of Paranoia?

ROBERT BAKER

Whispers: The Voices of Paranoia. By Ronald Siegel. Crown Publishers, New York. 1994. 310 pp. Hardcover, $23.

onald Siegel is not only one of hours later the husband murdered his the U.C.L.A. medical school. Siegel America's most distinguished psy­ faithful wife. Such are the dangers of winds up interviewing "the brain" hid­ Rchologists—an expert in the these states of mind that lead us to den in a computer program named effects of drugs on behavior {Intoxication, believe we are being harassed and perse­ Parry. 1990, Pocket Books, New York) and on cuted and cause us to interpret every Next, Siegel discusses the case of a hallucinations (Fire In the Brain, 1992, event and aspect of the world around us distinguished engineer and his bout Dutton, New York)—but he is also one as proof positive of this suspicion. Our with delusions of being mentally influ­ of the nation's most entertaining story­ failure to realize that our mind can play enced by electrical transmissions from tellers. In his newest collection of clinical tricks on us can be deadly. an orbiting satellite emitting micro­ histories—all concerned with the "expe­ waves that are controlling his own, as rience" of paranoia—we run die gamut well as other people's, thinking. Siegel's of people who are beset by die mental next case, "Whispers," concerns an demons of suspicion, hostility, projec­ elderly woman who believed her teeth tion, ideas of reference, persecution, and whispered to her, but was mostly con­ cerned with the fact that she couldn't grandiosity that therapists define as "the clearly make out what they were saying. paranoid mode of thinking.'' Siegel discovered that the sounds were Occasionally wearing a bulletproof real, but had trouble finding their vest during the writing of this book, source. Siegel's solution to this puzzle is Siegel is well aware of how dangerous an intriguing and classic example of some paranoid people can be and, at the good detective work. In fact, Siegel same time, how difficult they are to diag­ would have made a superb sleuth had he nose because many "paranoid delusions not chosen psychology as a profession. usually contain a grain of truth and are constructed logically." Many textbooks His investigatory skills are at their on abnormal psychology tell the classic best, however, in: (1) his study of the story of the husband who developed the dancer who murdered her boyfriend; (2) paranoid delusion that his wife was To help us better understand the his story of habitual users of cocaine unfaithful, and tried to kill her. After mental state of the seriously disturbed— who believe bugs are crawling through being confined and treated for more as well as that of the vast number of their bodies just under the skin, as well than a year, the husband convinced the fear-motivated believers in government as cocaine paranoia that can lead to dierapeutic team he was well, and fully conspiracies, alien abductions, satanic- homicide; and (3) another tragic case realized that his wife was faithful, that he ritual abuses, and other public paranoid involving a paranoid chess player who had been mentally ill, and that he now fears—Siegel first takes us into the suffered from bizarre delusions involv­ ing blacks, the KGB, and the Mafia. clearly understood both his paranoia and deluded mind of a University of his delusion. Convinced the husband's California at Los Angeles graduate stu­ By far the most amusing of Siegel's insight showed he was cured, the hospi­ dent who believed that Hitler's brain cases deals with his clever use of a sim­ tal team released him. Less than 24 was being kept alive in the basement of ple, $15 magic trick, "The Floating

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER March/April 1996 45 BOOK REVIEWS

Dollar Bill," to astound, confound, and days and Siegel's summary notes as to Hoover, Lyndon Johnson, H. L. Hunt rehabilitate not only a paranoid and his famous client's fate are both fascinat­ and other Texas billionaires, and the neglectful father, but the father's entire ing and depressing. CIA. The book, Killing Kennedy and the family as well. Siegel's expertise in drugs If one didn't know better, and if one Hoax of the Century by H. E. and hallucinatory behavior clearly is in heeded everything the media have been Livingstone (1995, Carroll and Graf evidence in his final two cases: one trying to sell us recently, we, too, would Publishers, New York) also insists the involving a mother who, high on a com­ be unalterably convinced that dead famous Zapruder film is a fake and was bination of metaphetamines, thyroid alien bodies are in government hands, used by the conspirators with the medication, and diet pills, murdered her that thousands of children are being media's help to hide the true murderers seven-year-old daughter while watching sexually molested by satanists daily, that and throw suspicion onto Lee Harvey the movie The Ten Commandments; the vast government conspiracies are afoot Oswald, who had nothing to do with other, a paranoid who believed he was to take our freedoms away, and that all Kennedy's death. Siegel is correct! being pursued by dwarfs: small black our fellow citizens are evil and corrupt. Someone has lifted the lid on Pandora's men with little green beards. Once the demon of paranoia escapes it Box and the fiend of paranoia is now Siegel's final case illustrates, chill­ is almost impossible to capture and ravaging our land. From a clinical point ingly, just how easy it is for the sanest of restrain. Last week I read another new of view, Siegel's study of this monster is individuals—in this instance Siegel book claiming once again that both accurate and informative. As for himself—to fall into the paranoia trap. President Kennedy was the victim of a sheer entertainment and readability, no During an Amtrak train trip from vast conspiracy headed by J. Edgar one should come away displeased. D Jacksonville to New York, a cocaine addict named Mario developed the delusion he was being attacked by com­ RADII -M BEHAVIORISM! mandos out to kill him. Heavily armed nil PHILOSOPHY as a result of his paranoia, Mario held off nil si II s< i Are We Skeptical the police for three days after acciden­ tally killing his sister and her infant son. Enough? Convinced there was more to the inci­ DENNIS R. WAHLGREN dent than cocaine effects alone, Siegel duplicated Mario's train ride. To Radical Behaviorism: The Philosophy and the Science. By Mecca Chiesa. enhance the verisimilitude of the reen- Authors Cooperative, Boston, 1994. 241 pp. Paper, $16.95- actment Siegel ingested a "legal cocaine substitute" with cocainelike effects. KEPTICAL INQUIRER investigates ory died long ago because too many When the police suggested that the claims of paranormal events. Often drives were necessary for an adequate Colombian cartel might send a hit man Sthis is actually an exercise in psy­ account. It also failed due to egregious because Siegel's work endangered their chology—why might people's reports be circularity. operation, this, along with the noisy biased or even fraudulent? What is often James Alcock also resurrected the environment of the railroad car, plus not appreciated in these accounts, how­ "homunculus" in our heads. By claim­ someone trying to enter his compart­ ever, is that psychology itself, as a system ing that we construct a representation of ment, was more than enough to trigger for explaining human behavior, com­ the world inside our heads, he leaves Siegel's own attack of paranoia. monly makes equally specious claims. implicit the necessity for something As Siegel notes in his summary, Laypersons and cognitive psycholo­ inside our heads to then view that repre­ "Some of my patients got better, some gists have invented fictional, non- sentation. Where is this thing? How can got worse, and some got lost and are still testable, and often illogical entities to we explain what it sees, and how it then out there." In every case in his book, explain behavior. It is one's soul, mind, determines our behavior? I'm skeptical. however, Siegel makes it clear that the personality, motivation, intelligence, or A current buzzword in cognitive psy­ paranoid "inhabits a different realm of God that "causes" us to behave as we do. chology (and particularly its application to being . . . and views the world as if Even the esteemed contributors to the health psychology) is "self-efficacy." Self- trapped in a cell or, yes, even a demon's SKEPTICAL INQUIRER are not immune: efficacy, defined as the confidence one has lair." Siegel's final note about Ernest "We actively seek out information to in one's ability to perform a behavior, is Hemingway's paranoia during his last satisfy our many needs" (Alcock 1995). taken to be a determinant of behavior. But the only evidence for a "need" is the Now examine the logic of the following Robert A. Baker is professor emeritus of observation of the behavior it is sup­ quote I recently came across in an psychology at the University of Kentucky posed to explain. "Drive-reduction" the­ esteemed journal: "To influence efficacy

46 March/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER BOOK REVIEWS expectations one would enhance confi­ In defining the philosophy of RB, behavior, die hypothetical structure is dence in engaging in die behaviors. . . ." Chiesa dismantles three general errors inserted between the two and is said to (Strecher et al. 1993). Certainly. with respect to it. The first error is the cause die behavior. However, the struc­ The circularity of die above statement placement of RB alongside stimulus- ture serves only to maintain a contigu­ aside, perhaps we should concentrate less response or input/output models of psy­ ous mechanistic link, a superfluous link on people's expectations and instead chology. This error is based on the mis­ not necessitated by the data—it does work on changing the relevant behavior? taken assumption that individuals not add to the functional relation. Such It is time to reevaluate our methods included under the term behaviorism, as additions to accounts of behavior are of explaining behavior. Explanatory fic­ it is usually applied in introductory col­ inelegant by increasing dieir complexity, tions such as "needs" are circular at best, lege texts, were ever unified on the sub­ and divert attention away from die orig­ nonfalsifiable at worst. To explain ject matter of psychology, philosophy of inal topic of interest—functional rela­ behavior according to " beliefs" ignores science, and methodology. Chiesa tions between behavior and its con­ the fact that beliefs are just more behav­ describes die approach of several key text—toward the fictional entities said ior to be explained. individuals cited as behaviorists (Ivan to account for die behavior. Pavlov, John Broadus Watson, Edward In spite of claims to the contrary While many skeptics are quick to Chace Tolman, and Clark Leonard (usually by cognitive psychologists), the condemn those who ascribe the origin Hull), and illustrates their many differ­ behavioral science pioneered by B. F. of the universe to a hypothetical entity ences from Skinner and RB. Pavlov and Skinner, Radical Behaviorism (RB), is called "God," we are slow to give up our Watson were convinced that behavior alive and has served as the basis for what equally divine and equally hypothetical could be described as simple reflex is one of the most effective applied "Mind" in explanations of our behavior. chains; Skinner emphasized the proba­ behavioral sciences. RB provides a wel­ Some people claim to have seen this bilistic nature of nonreflexive behavior come alternative to the problems cited god—no one has ever claimed to have and the role of environmental events in above by exploring functional relations seen a mind. Contemporary cognitive altering its probability. Tolman and Hull between environmental events and psychology, die psychology of mind, has inserted hypothetical mental variables behavior. frequently been hailed as the welcomed berween environmental events and response to behaviorism—Chiesa illus­ As the book jacket to Mecca Chiesa's behavior; Skinner focused only on the trates clearly that cognitive psychology Radical Behaviorism: The Philosophy and observed functional relationship. operates within die framework devel­ the Science states, "Misconceptions, mis­ oped by the early "behaviorists" Tolman interpretations, and misrepresentations Behaviorism was merely a historical and Hull. Skinner's radical behaviorism have kept the humanity and the promise marker for when an attempt was made to seeks to identify functional relations of this approach to behavioral science bring psychology closer to the rigor of the between behavior and its context, with­ from those who would have welcomed natural sciences. It is inappropriate, as it is out requiring spatial/temporal contigu­ and used it if they had been properly commonly used, as a label to denote com­ ity. Skinner has little in common with informed." This book would be highly monalities in philosophy and methodol­ diese early "behaviorists." valuable to its readership by repairing ogy among the cited individuals. common misunderstandings of The second error is to say RB is a The third error is to say that RB Skinner's science of behavior, and as an Newtonian, mechanical causal system. accepts Cartesian mind/body duality but introduction to the science that offers a This error is also a result of mistakenly ignores the mind. This error is rooted in cogent alternative to accounts of behav­ attributing RB to incorrect historical the assumption diat RB follows directly ior as cited above. roots. The charge is actually truer of the from John B. Watson, who suggested Skinner and RB have been criticized rest of contemporary psychology. that we set aside die mind until we have by the lay community as well as by odier Tolman and Hull, bodi commonly cited appropriate tools for the task. Chiesa schools of psychology, but Chiesa as early behaviorists, advocated a stim­ demonstrates that Cartesian duality is demonstrates that the criticisms are ulus-organism-response approach to standard fare in much of contemporary nearly always in error, and are in many psychology—environmental changes psychology, but not in RB. Skinner set cases more applicable to contemporary affect some structure in the organism, out to develop a comprehensive theory psychology, not to RB. which in turn results in changed behav­ of behavior that ignored no aspea of the ior. The "structure," Chiesa asserts, is behaving individual, one that would always a hypothetical construct— encompass private events such as think­ Dennis R. Wahlgren is at the Center for "mind," or more esoteric cognitive enti­ ing and feeling "without setting those Behavioral Epidemiology, Graduate ties, such as "visuo-spatial scratchpad." apart as though belonging to anodicr School of Public Health, San Diego State Given an observed functional relation dimension" (p. 187). Perhaps the pri­ University, and at the San Diego Veterans between environmental context and mary reason Skinner referred to his sys- Administration Medical Center.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER March/Apnl 1996 47 BOOK REVIEWS

tern as radical behaviorism was his will­ problems that threaten us: pollution, claims have helped Meier become a cult ingness (and requirement) to account for overpopulation, warfare, violence, to figure and leader of a Swiss commune private events. He did not set these apart name a few. To change the behavior that known as the Semjase Silver Star Center. and require a separate explanatory sys­ results in these threats requires an effec­ He has been promoted in the United tem for them. He never denied mat peo­ tive science. However, if the science States by such credulous writers as UFO ple think or feel, but he did question the employed consists of hypothetical con­ buff Wendelle Stevens (who wrote two assumption that these events are some­ structs that are said to cause behavior books advancing Meier's claims and how different than overt behavior and (e.g., mind, intelligence, belief, motiva­ edited two volumes of his "contact require mentalistic/nonphysicaJ accounts tion), there is no hope—there is no notes") and Gary Kinder (author of a to explain them. means by which to change hypothetical naive book about Meier, Light Years, Chiesa makes very clear the rational constructs. Chiesa's well-thought text published in 1987 by Atlantic Monthly bases for studying behavior from an RB will at least foster skepticism of these Press). perspective. In so doing she refutes many theories of behavior. Better yet, it may Over the years, UFO investigator Kal common criticisms of Skinner and RB attract well-deserved interest in RB, K. Korff has cast doubts on Meier's that result from misunderstanding of the which has generated numerous func­ claims, first in a small, self-published position, and from overgeneralizations tional relations between behavior and its book in 1981, then in subsequent arti­ from Skinner's predecessors with whom context, and it is the components of the cles in UFOlogical magazines, and with he actually held very little in common. context that can and should be changed. lectures at UFO meetings and confer­ ences. Now he has produced his mag­ Her discussion of the history of the phi­ References losophy of science, including a vivid par­ num opus on the Meier saga, Spaceships allel between Ernst Mach (and David Alcock, J. E. 1995. The belief engine. SKEPTICAL of the Pleiades, a 439-page tome that Hume) and Skinner, is engaging. The INQUIRER 19(3) (May/June): 14-18. subsumes all previous writings on Meier. Strecher, V. J.. K. E. Bauman, B. Boat, M. G. net result is the conclusion that, within Fowler, R. Greenburg, and H. Stedman. 1993. To gather new evidence, Korff set out psychology, RB is die closest approxima­ The role of outcome and efficacy expectations for Switzerland. To avoid being identi­ tion to the modern natural sciences in in an intervention designed to reduce infants' fied as the notorious Meier skeptic, he exposure to environmental tobacco smoke. philosophy and methodology. Health Education Research: Theory ami Practice disguised himself by letting his hair and Skinner often wrote of the many 8. 137-143. D beard grow and adopted the undercover name "Steve Thomas." Armed with a hidden video camera, he and a female companion appeared at Meier's rural commune for six visits—three of which were "covert," including a nighttime Fakeships of visit by Korff who was dressed in an army camouflage outfit to collect soil the Pleiades samples from some "UFO landing tracks." JOE NICKELL Later, back in the United States, Spaceships of the Pleiades: The Billy Meier Story. By Kal K. Korff. Korff had analyses conducted on the soil Prometheus Books, Amherst, N.Y., 1995. 439 pp. Hardcover, $25.95. samples, the myriad Meier photographs purchased at the commune gift shop, ince 1975 a Swiss farmer named As "proof" of such claims Meier has and other materials. Here is a brief syn­ Eduard "Billy" Meier has claimed not only produced voluminous "contact opsis of his findings: Sto have had more than seven hun­ notes," but also collected alleged UFO photographs. Based on certain dred contacts with extraterrestrials from Pleiadean rock, mineral, and metal sam­ known factors (such as the focal length the star cluster Pleiades, particularly ples, and has taken more than a thou­ of the camera Meier uses), a mathemati­ with a "Pleiadian female cosmonaut" sand UFO photos and films. This is cal formula can be used to calculate the named Semjase. The Pleiadians have made all the more remarkable, his sup­ size of the spaceships in Meier's photos. chosen Meier to be a prophet of porters say, by the fact that he is a sixth- Never are they the large size—"22.75 Humanity, he says, and to lead earth- grade dropout and has only one arm, feet in diameter"—that Meier alleges; lings into the New Age and beyond. He limitations that should have prevented instead, they are invariably small models has even time-traveled, once having the sophisticated hoaxes skeptics accuse placed relatively close to the camera. saved Jesus from a beating, according to him of perpetrating. Moreover, reports Computer analyses of some photos one UFO lecturer. that laboratory tests verify his various reveal apparent strings or wires used to

48 March/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER BOOK REVIEWS hold up the models. One series involved tical cloud formations, Meier's Venus a chemist rather than metallurgist, but that ten photos that were deliberately double photos are actually "out-of-focus copies he lacked a doctorate and even had a exposed, while additional photographs of the Mariner 10 images, taken seven­ "demonstrable record of fraud in his exhibited other problems (pp. teen months before his alleged 'contact'" experimental work, especially when it 135-219). (pp. 235-237). involved psychic research" (p. 284). Spaceship movies. In Meier's movie Similarly, analysis of Meier pho­ Other evidence. Additional evidence footage of "Pleiadian ships," the alleged tographs of three lovely alien "cosmo­ of Meier's claims has not fared well craft rock back and forth in the wind nauts"—Asket, Nera, and Semjase— either, Korff reports. Hair from the like lightweight models tethered to show they were copied from a television lovely Semjase was forensically analyzed helium balloons. Korff achieved the screen, as were shots of a "cave-man" and found to be human, while the same effect with similarly tethered mod­ and an alleged outer-space photograph alleged "landing-tracks" on Meier's els. Indeed, he notes that "balloons can of the Horsehead Nebula (pp. 245-58). property turned out to be nothing more be seen in the background of many of "Alien" metal samples. Received dur­ than early (apparently man-made) crop Meier's pictures" (p. 220). ing his 105th contact with the alien circles. As for the soil samples Korff sur­ "Time-travel" photographs. Meier Semjase, Meier claims, were "four metal, reptitiously obtained, there was "no dis­ has produced various photos that sup­ one biological, and nine mineral and crys­ cernible difference" between them and posedly prove he has traveled into space tal specimens" that supposedly verified control samples obtained from nearby aboard Pleiadean spacecraft. Unfor­ the Pleiadean visits. Although analysis of areas (pp. 299-300). tunately, Korff establishes that Meier's the metal samples repeatedly showed they This summary of the evidence photographs of Venus could not have were consistent with origin on Earth, one against Meier's claims is not intended to been taken with his camera, as claimed: scientist claimed that the components substitute for the detailed analyses Korff The atmospheric details could only be were fused by a technology that could not provides. Readers will be intrigued by revealed by using special ultraviolet fil­ be achieved on Earth. Alas, before the the series of puzzles Meier's photos and ters, filters that were used for photos claim could be independently verified, other evidence represent, as well as edu­ taken by the NASA Mariner 10 space­ the sample conveniendy disappeared. It cated by the Sherlockian manner in craft in 1974. In fact, as shown by iden­ turned out that not only was the scienust which Korff solves each in turn. D

NEW BOOKS

Book of the Damned. Charles Fort. James Considered a Career as an Incest Survivor?" The common thread, according to the Brown Publishing, Fortean Times, 20 Paul "The Recovery Channel." "Alien Implant author, is how the "panic-stricken middle Street, Frame, Somerset, Ball 1DX, UK. Problems?" "Single Personality Disorder." And class escapes its apocalyptic nightmare." The 1995. ISBN 1-870870-53-0.310 pp. $24.00, so on. A welcome breath of fresh air. opening chaprcr is on the Unarms cult. paper. The first scholarly revision since die Several deal with militias. first edition in 1919, of Fort's classic collec­ Cult Archaeology and Creationism: tion of unevaluated notes on strange phe­ Understanding Pseudoscientific Beliefs AboutDinosaur in a Haystack: Reflections in nomena, observations, and experiences. With the Past. An Expanded Edition. Edited by Natural History. Stephen Jay Gould. extensive data corrections. Introduction by Francis B. Harrold and Raymond A. Eve. Harmony Books. New York. 1995. ISBN 0- Rob Rickard. editor of Fortean Times. University of Iowa Press, Iowa City, Iowa, 517-70393-9. 480 pp. $25.00, hardcover. 1995. ISBN 0-87745-513-9. 204 pp. $13.95, This is the seventh volume of Gould's con­ Cosmic Relief Honoring and Celebrating the paper (also in hardcover). New edition of tinuing monthly Natural History essays, com­ Global Paradigm Shaft. Connie L Schmidt. work first published in 1987 has a new chap­ pleting twenty years of superb intellectual Brockton Publishing, 8326 Southwest Freeway, ter by the editors and Geertruida C. De contribution to the public understanding of Houston, TX 77074. 1995. ISBN 1-887918- Goede, "Cult Archaeology and Creationism in evolutionary science by the modern master of 01-9. 107 pp. 518.95, paper. If you are seeking die 1990s and Beyond," summarizing what's the scientific essay. (He says he intends to relief from die glut of New Age, wholistic been found since die first edition, and also a continue writing them monthly until lifestyle publications, this high-spirited spoof is new chapter on Afrocentric creationism by January 2001.) As always, the centering for you. In fact, all skeptics will enjoy it. The Bernard Ortiz de Montellano. theme is evolution, with emphasis on issues author ("who docs not teach weekend work­ in Darwinism and patterns in the recorded shops and has never tried to sell cosmetics ot history of life. Or as Gould puts it, "The how Cult Rapture. Adam Parfrey. Feral House, and what of evolution's four-billion-year herbs or cleaning products to anyone") uses P.O. Box 3466, Portland, OR 97208. 1995. sharp wit, humor-laced skepticism, and com­ course on our planet." Filled with Gould's ISBN 0-922915-22-9. 371 pp. $14.95, puter graphics to create text and ads we'd all like love of history, "not only of life itself but of paper. A journalistic collection delving into to see: "All die Latest Poop on Quartz Crystals science trying to understand life," and his joy and Your Colon." "Isn't It Time You the "rapturously cultic experiences of groups at making links between past and present, you're going to wish you never heard of."

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER March/April 1996 49 between fascinating individuals such as viduais claiming strong psychic powers in Science Without Limits. James S. Perlman. Linnaeus and Erasmus Darwin, and between part because no formal methodological Prometheus Books, 59 John Glenn Dr., the specific and the general, or again as he guidelines existed as to how to proceed. This Amherst, NY 14228. 1995. ISBN 0-87975- puts it, "the marriage of alluring detail with manual attempts to provide pragmatic and 962-3. 358 pp. $29.95, hardcover. A scien­ instructive generality." flexible guidelines to help researchers and tist and teacher shows how science is not a others identify and resolve the problems that dry, mechanistic process but a dynamic Guidelines for Testing Psychic Claimants. occur in assessing psychic claimants. interplay between human beings and their Richard Wiseman and Robert L. Morris. Chapters deal with the problem of fraud, ini­ surroundings, embodying attempts to Prometheus Books, 59 John Glenn Dr., tial meetings, working with likely tricksters, understand, anticipate, and cope with nat­ Amherst. NY 14228. 1995. ISBN 1-57392- genera] research policies, pilot studies, formal ural events. 028-2. 109 pp. $29.95. hardcover. research, reporting recommendations, and Researchers have avoided working with indi- proof vs. process-oriented research. —Kendrick Frazicr

ARTICLES OF NOTE

Aragones. Sergio. "A Mad Look at Alien Most of them could have done better, on Magazine 68(4): 275-282, October 1995. Abductions." Mad, No. 341, December average, just by always choosing a location Author looks at the claim that Mozart inten­ 1995, pp. 9-11. Alien abductions get the exactly in the middle of the test line. tionally composed his sonatas so that the Mad magazine treatment. All you need to ratio of the two parts, exposition and devel­ know, especially about the sex and money Lancaster, Don. "Pseudoscicnce Strikes opment/recapitulation, would approximate aspects of alien abductions. Again." Electronics Now, December 1995, the Golden Proportion [a/b = b/(a+b)]. He pp. 41-43. Column says "perpetual-motion finds that to a great extent this ratio is well- Corlis, Richard. "Autopsy or Fraud-topsy?" folks and pseudoscience enthusiasts" are approximated but goes on to point out that Time, November 26, 1995, p. 105. Report "coming out of the woodwork." Their one should also look at the ratio b/(.i«b). Here the Golden Section is not so well on the debate over the TV show "Alien schemes have "zero" chance for success and approximated. He also notes that the basic Autopsy: Fact or Fiction?" divert people from the "many new and excit­ ing things you could be trying instead." form of the sonata was well established by Mozart's time and that the restrictions de Duve, Christian. "The Constraints of Lancaster gives some examples in electronics. imposed by the form itself quite naturally Chance." Scientific American, January 1996, lead to the ratio of the parts being close to p. 112. Nobel laureate biologist says fash­ Lemonick, Michael D. "Are the Bible's the golden ratio phi. He concludes that it is ionable arguments thai the origin and evolu­ Stories True?" Time, December 18, 1995, unlikely that Mozart had the Golden Section tion of life are the products of highly improb­ pp. 62-69. Cover article focuses on results of in mind when he composed his sonatas. able combinations of chance occurrences are recent archaeological research in Israel, "demonstrably false." To the contrary, "life where 300 digs are under way, that is helping and mind appear as cosmic imperatives, writ­ shed new light on which of the stories in the Waller, Douglas. "The Vision Thing." ten into the fabric of the universe." Bible did—and didn't—occur. Time, December 11, 1995, p. 48. Time's report on the government's program, sup­ Enright, James T. "Water Dowsing: The Pollack, Andrew. "The Life Force in the ported by several key congressmen over the 'Scheunen' Experiments." Natur- Briefcase." New York Times, November 28, years, to try to use psychics for spying gives wissenschaften 82:360-369, 1995. Under a 1995, p. Cl. Now that Japans economy is in a several examples of its notable failures. The program to investigate "unconventional long and harsh recession, more and more busi­ CIA funded an evaluation of the 20-year methods of cancer control," the German gov­ nessmen are seeking advice and solace in the program, and as a result announced in ernment sponsored a large-scale experimental supernatural and mysterious forces, according November that the program was a waste of investigation of water dowsing, conducted by to this news report. Businessmen are taking money and should be shut down. (See Ray two physicists from universities in Munich. lessons in "ki," a supposed fundamental life Hyman's Special Report in this issue.) This was no doubt the largest careful study of force, and the Sony Corporation has a four- its kind ever undertaken, with some 10,000 member "esper" laboratory that is trying to Yam, Phillip. "Martin Gardner: The individual tests using some 500 dowsers. The prove and measure such phenomena as Mathematical Gamester." Scientific Ameri­ central element in the research involved dou­ extrasensory perception and ki. A foundation can, December 1995, pp. 38-41. Good pro­ ble-blind tests of whether some 50 selected affiliated with the powerful Ministry of file of Martin Gardner at 81, with emphasis dowsers could correctly locate a hidden, International Trade and Industry has a commit­ on his interests in philosophy and recre­ movable water pipe from a distance of 4 to 5 tee, headed by a Tokai University biophysicist ational mathematics (he wrote the yards. At the end of the project (1990), the and supported by 16 companies, to try to pro­ "Mathematical Games" column for Scientific researchers concluded that the reality of the duce ki artificially to heal the sick. The ministry American for 25 years). Several famous skill of some of the dowsers had been estab­ also has a committee set up to look at telepathy mathematicians comment on how his lished beyond reasonable doubt, a conclusion and other phenomena to allow business to tap columns helped inspire work on particular widely reported in the German press. into these powers. Other businesses have turned mathematical problems. Touches only Enright's article describes a reexamination of to fortune-tellers to advise them on prospective briefly on his SKEPTICAL INQUIRER column the data underlying that interpretation. This employees and business decisions. and his criticisms of pseudoscience and analysis demonstrates that even the most fringe-science. "skillful" of the dowsers were unable to per­ form reproducibly at levels above chance. Purz, John F. "The Golden Section and the Piano Sonatas of Mozart." Mathematics —Kendrick Frazier

50 March/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Scientific Knowledge Is Money in the Bank

MARK BOSLOUGH

f you have ever driven across north­ Washington. Gilbert was the retiring pieces of iron found on the surface by ern Arizona, you have probably seen president of the Geological Society of Armijo did prove to be meteorites but Ithe signs along Interstate 40: Washington and one of the top scientific Gilbert concluded that they fell from "Meteor Crater . . . the planet's most thinkers of his time. He had also been the sky in an unrelated event (thereby penetrating natural attraction." chief geologist of the U.S. Geological also rejecting Armijo's idea that they Perhaps the slick promotional bill­ Survey until Congress slashed the came out of the ground). boards enticed you to make a short Agency's budget in half, terminating his Of the two volcanic ideas, one pre­ excursion from your planned trip. As and others' positions. His lecture was dicted that volcanic rocks would be you neared the site you would have seen tided the "Origin of Hypotheses," and found in the crater. But the crater had a low ridge rising from the flat desert was a description of the scientific method. none, so there was only one hypothesis ahead. An earlier generation called the At the center of the scientific method, left that had not been eliminated: some ridge "Coon Butte," not realizing that it he said, is the hypothesis, or "the scien­ type of volcanic steam explosion. was actually the rim of a three-quarter- tific guess." Gilbert used the origin of That was the idea that Gilbert mile-wide crater. Coon Butte to illustrate how this works. accepted as the correct explanation, even When you stand on the rim, you Four scientific guesses had been made at though he had arrived at the crater look across an expansive circular cavity the time. The first came from a shepherd expecting to demonstrate that it was in solid rock that is so wide that it named Mathias Armijo, who found formed by an impact. He already sup­ changes the wind patterns and attracts pieces of iron near the crater and rea­ ported the then-unpopular notion that raptors that soar in the updrafts. This soned that an explosion had hurled the such craters on the moon were formed big hole truly should be listed as one of metal out of the ground and formed the by impacts, not volcanoes, but a good the natural wonders of die world. big hole (one does not have to be a sci­ scientist does not allow personal feelings entist to think scientifically). Geologists What you may not know is that a to get in the way of evidence. However, who came to visit the site offered two century ago Meteor Crater was the sub­ Gilbert was very careful to point out that scientific guesses involving two types of ject of a great scientific controversy, and there was much that was still not known volcanic processes. A fourth hypothesis about meteorites and impacts. He recog­ was a focal point for defining the scien­ was the radical idea that a meteorite had nized that new facts might be discovered tific method and promoting scientific hit the Earth. that would overturn his conclusion. research at the dawn of twentieth- century American technological Gilbert traveled to this then-remote That is exactly what happened. We progress. One hundred years after that part of the country and made measure­ now understand that Gilbert over­ debate. Meteor Crater serves as a ments to test die various ideas. Because estimated the size of the meteorite that reminder of the importance of scientific so little was known at the time about the would be needed to pack enough punch knowledge and of the scientific method physics of meteorite impacts, he pre­ to blast out such a big hole: to our way of life. dicted that such a cosmic collision Hypervelocity impacts are much more In early 1896, the journal Science pub­ would have left a very large piece of iron powerful than he realized. Furthermore, lished an address that geologist Grove buried under the crater. His tests failed even a large iron meteorite will mostly Karl Gilbert (1843-1918) had rcccndy to find the predicted iron, so Gilbert vaporize in a giant explosion, leaving given to die Scientific Societies of rejected the impact idea. The small very few traces. Gilbert had made a mis-

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Match/April 1996 51 take by assuming that the impact would are those who twist legitimate multicul- century address by explaining that "fer­ leave a lot of buried iron. turalism by going way beyond it to tility of invention implies a wide and It would be many years before a extreme relativism. They dogmatically varied knowledge of the causes of young scientist named Eugene Shoe­ assert that all ways of seeking knowledge things," and that deep understanding of maker and his colleagues from the U.S. are equally valid, but still insist that the nature through scientific research is Geological Survey would discover a rare scientific method is flawed because it essential. Gilbert told his audience that new mineral in the rocks at the crater, a originated in a time and place that causes our "material, social, and intellectual mineral that had been predicted to form them to view it as a Eurocentric, white condition" advances in lockstep with from an impact. This discovery finally male endeavor. Such thinking has our "knowledge of natural laws." encouraged proliferation of belief in settled the controversy, and partially He concluded by comparing science pseudoscientific and unscientific ideas vindicated a shepherd's original hunch to an investment: "Knowledge of nature ranging from crystal healing to flying that the hole was formed by some kind is an account at [the] bank, where each saucers. Even worse, it has turned some of colossal explosion involving iron. dividend is added to the principal and women and minorities away from careers The scientific process is sometimes in science, not only to their own detri­ the interest is ever compounded: And slow, but it always involves making edu­ ment but to the detriment of society. hence it is that human progress, founded cated guesses that eventually lead to pre­ on natural knowledge, advances with dictions that can be observed and put to Science is also under attack from the ever increasing speed!" a test. If the predictions turn out to be religious right, whose literal interpreta­ Since Gilbert spoke these words, our incorrect, the test is still successful as tion of the Bible supersedes scientific evi­ scientific bank account has led to inven­ long as scientists learn enough to modify dence, logical reasoning, and common tions that his audience in Washington the theory, find a better one, or uncover sense. In this fundamentalist view, any could not have imagined. Our invest­ mistaken assumptions. Unfortunately, fact that is at odds with their own read­ ment has swollen with the advances we even after the successes of twentieth-cen­ ing of the scriptures must be ignored. associate with modern living, with med­ tury science between Gilbert's time and Unfortunately, this faction is not satisfied ical discoveries that have given us now, there are a lot of people who still merely to reject science for itself, but it longer, healthiet, happier lives, and with now has an active campaign to remove don't like (or don't understand) the sci­ an unprecedented degree of national scientifically validated subjects (such as entific form of reasoning. security. evolution) from the classroom and have In fact, modern science is now under We can thank Gilbert and his con­ them replaced by their own unscientific attack from many directions. On the left temporaries for having the foresight to opinions (such as creationism). recognize 100 years ago the importance Mark Boslough is a physicist in Worst of all, science is now under of this scientific bank account, and for Albuquerque, New Mexico, who special­ attack by a budget-cutting Congress in making the effort to convince decision­ izes in hypervelocity impact research. Washington for whom dollars have makers to restore and increase funding Using computer models, he and his col­ measurable value but scientific knowl­ for science. We should again ask those leagues predicted correctly that the edge does not. Members of Congress in Washington to pass along to future Shoemaker-Levy 9 comet impact into think that spending on basic science is generations the American tradition of a Jupiter would produce a plume visible like throwing money into a big hole in strong investment in scientific knowl­ from Earth. He visits Meteor Crater on the ground. They do not realize that a edge, and trust in the scientific method. dollar saved may be two dollars (or occasion to collect samples of shocked sand­ And we should remind them that stone for a project to develop new methods more) worth of knowledge lost. research spending is money in the bank, for identifying impacts. Gilbert closed his late-nineteenth- not money in a hole.

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52 Mtrch/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER FOLLOW-UP

A Response: African Contributions to Mathematics

BEATRICE LUMPKIN

s the author of "African and that systems of numeration originated Rowe did not admit "that Egypt was an African-American Contributions in Africa." To refute any such inference, African civilization," invented a "dynastic Ato Mathematics" I believe Walter Rowe cites Marshack (1972) who dates race" invasion that was supposed to have Rowe's article "School Daze: A Critical the bone to 6500 B.C. and gives exam­ brought civilization to Egypt. Many Review of the African-American Baseline ples of older numerical records found in Egyptologists have discarded this theory Essays for Science and Mathematics," SI, Europe. Evidently Rowe was not aware because the evidence does not support it September-October 1995, misses the of new work on this subject. (Trigger 1983). Classification of ancient main point. He concludes his article on Recent scholarship, which Marshack Egyptian civilization as African is based the Portland Public Schools' "African includes in his 1991 revised edition, gives on cultural factors and has nothing to do American Baseline Essays" by quoting a much older date of 18,000 B.C to with the cranial or "racial stock" classifi­ their stated goal: "To eliminate personal 23,000 B.C. for the Ishango bone. It is cations favored by Rowe. and national erhnocentrism so that one based on work by Brooks and Smith I wonder if those who consider understands that a specific culture is not (1987). The Ishango bone grouped "Egyptian influence on Greek mathemat­ intrinsically superior or inferior to numerical values recorded as tally marks ics to be minimal," think classical Greek another." This goal he dismisses as "noth­ and was probably preceded by simpler mathematicians were stupid to spend ing but cant." Coupled with an offensive tally records. A simpler tally record on a many years studying with the Egyptian cartoon stereotype, the effect of the article fossil baboon bone has been found in priests. Heath (1921, 1981), whom Rowe is a defense of the "white is right" status Border Cave, between Namibia and South identifies as "the leading expert on Greek quo. Rowe says he fears "growing tribal- Africa. The bone was inscribed with 29 mathematics," wrote: "Diodorus gives it ization of American culture," but does not equally spaced tallies, perhaps a record of a as an Egyptian tradition that geometry admit that textbooks in the past have pre­ lunar period. Dated about 35,000 B.C, it and astronomy were the discoveries of sented mathematics and science as purely is the oldest numerical record known to Egypt, and says that the Egyptian priests European contributions, completely omit­ date (Bogoshi, Naidoo, and Webb 1987). claimed Solon, Pythagoras, Plato, ting contributions of people of color. Democritus, Oenopides of Chios, and It is possible that modern humans Eudoxus as their pupils. But the Egyptian Casual readers of "School Daze" may possessed a sophisticated tool kit by the claim to the discoveries was never dis­ get the false impression that my essay time the species spread from Africa to puted by the Greeks." Heath shows that makes claims for paranormal sources of other continents. Ages of 75,000 to the claim made by the Egyptian priests knowledge. On rhe contrary, my essay 90,000 years are given for modern- was corroborated by Herodotus, tries to show that mathematics developed looking toothed harpoon bones found Aristotle, Strabo, Socrates (according to in Africa as a human response to human by Yellen et al. (1995) on the Semliki Plato), and by Heron of Alexandria. needs. I believe that concept can be help­ River in Zaire, near the Ishango site on ful in rhe teaching of mathematics. Lake Rutanzige. That discovery may In the transmission of Islamic mathe­ require a correction of current text­ After a personal attack on my cre­ matics and science to Europe, Africa books, which say that such tools were dentials (which I ignore and forgive) played a major role, notwithstanding first invented in Europe 40,000 years Rowe opens with a discussion of the Rowe's doubts. During African Islamic rule ago (Yellen et al. 1995). Ishango bone found in Zaire. He says of Spain and Sicily, European scholars my essay "is dearly intended to infer Some early Egyptologists, who like came to those countries to translate science

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Match/April 1996 S3 and mathematics books from Arabic to 1800 B.C. I agree that "Besides the value Cliffs. N.J.: Prentice Hall. Latin (Boyer 1968). African-European of 3 for JI, die Babylonians occasionally Gies, Joseph, and Frances Gies. 1969. Leonard of Pisa and the New Mathematics of the Middle trade provided another transmission route. used a bettet approximation, 3 1/8" Ages. New York: Crowell. Leonardo of Pisa (Fibonacci) spent years (Bunt, Jones, and Bedient 1976). Heath, Sir Thomas. 1921. Reprint 1981. A trading and studying mathematics in History of Greek Mathematics. Vol. 1, p. 121. References New York: Dover. Algeria. On his return to Italy he used what Marshack, Alexander. 1972. New York: McGraw- he had learned in Africa to write influential Bogoshi, Jonas, Kevin Naidoo, and John Webb. Hill. Revised 1991. The Roots of Civilization: The books of mathematics, adding new mater­ 1987. The oldest mathematical artefact. Cognitive Beginnings of Man's First Art, Symbol Mathematical Gazette 71: 294. and Notation. Mount Kisko, N.Y.: Moycr Bell. ial of his own (Gies and Gies 1969). Boyer, Carl B. 1968. A History of Mathematics. Pp. Trigger, Bruce G. 1983. "The Rise of Egyptian Finally, the Egyptian value of 3.16 276-283. New York: Wiley. Civilization." In Ancient Egypt, A Social for at remains a great achievement for Brooks, Alison S„ and Catherine C. Smith. 1987. History, ed. by Bruce G. Trigger. P. 3. London: Ishango revisited: New age determinations Cambridge University Press. and cultural interpretations. African Yellen, John E., Alison S. Brooks, Els Cornelissen, Beatrice Lumpkin is associate professor of Archaeological Review 5:65-78. Michael J. Mehlman, and Kathlyn Stewart. mathematics, retired, Malcolm X College, Bunt, Lucas N.H.. Phillip S. Jones, and Jack D. 1995. A middle stone age worked bone indus­ Bedient. 1976. The Historical Hoots of try from Katanda, Upper Semliki Valley, Chicago City Colleges. Elementary Mathematics. E 62. Englewood Zaire. Science 268 (April 28):553-556. •

Response to Beatrice Lumpkin WALTER F. ROWE

f Beatrice Lumpkin is offended by the tendentious use of source materials in her his discussion of die Ishango bone in The suggestion that she is a purveyor of original African-American Baseline Essay. Crest of the Peacock with the following Ipseudoscience, she should be mote The point of Lumpkin's discussion of die warning: careful in the future. Both she and Ishango bone in die African-American Hunter Havelin Adams III have pub­ Baseline Essays is to lend plausibility to a Finally, in the absence of records, con­ jectures about the mathematical pur­ lished articles in the Journal of African non sequitur: "Since Africa is widely suits of early man have to be examined Civilizations and in the book Blacks in believed to be die birthplace of die human in the light of their plausibility, the Science (ed. by Ivan van Sertima, New race, it follows diat Africa was the birth­ existence of convincing alternative Brunswick: Transaction Books). Adams's place of mathematics and science." The explanations, and the quality of evi­ articles contain the same sort of pseudo- limited nature of the archaeological record dence available. A single bone may well collapse under the heavy weight science as his science essay in the Portland does not at this time permit any conclu­ of conjectures piled upon it. African-American Baseline Essays. I think sion about where mathematics originated. under the circumstances a reader might It is instructive to compare Lumpkin's dis­ 2. The racial and cultural affinities of be forgiven for assuming that Lumpkin cussion of die Ishango bone in her mathe­ the ancient Egyptians: I do not see how endorses Adams's views (including his matics essay widi the discussions of such Bruce Trigger's historical essay (Trigger belief in the magical powers of melanin). artifacts in David Nelson's essay "Teaching 1983) has any relevance to a discussion Mathematics from a Multicultural Lumpkin raises a number of issues in Standpoint" (Nelson 1993) and in George of the scientific research of Brace et al. her response to my article. Space does Gherverghese Joseph's book The Crest of the (1993), published ten years later. What not petmit me to reply in detail to all of Peacock (1991). Nelson and Joseph (both is even more mystifying is that Trigger's them. I will restrict my rejoinder to prominent leaders in the international essay contains not a single word about diree issues: the interpretation of the multicultural mathematics movement) the biological relationship of the ancient Ishango bone, the racial and cultural acknowledge die provenance of similar Egyptians and sub-Saharan Africans, affinities of die ancient Egyptians, and notched bones in both Africa and Europe. which is die subject of die article by the extent to which Egypt influenced In further contrast to Lumpkin, neidier of Brace and his coworkers. die development of Greek mathematics. these authors tries to draw from these arti­ Lumpkin's citation of Trigger's essay /. The Interpretation of the Ishango facts any sweeping conclusions as to where raises troubling questions about her bone: Citing more recent research on the mathematics first developed. Joseph ends research methods. She asserts that Ishango bone does not mitigate Lumpkin's ancient Egypt was an African culture.

54 March/Apr,! 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER The second sentence in Trigger's essay Africa to visit the mathematician theory, including the concepts of primes reads: "The aim of this chapter is to Theodorus of Cyrene (a Greek colony and rational and irrational numbers trace the development of this civiliza­ there), then to southern Italy to visit two (Books VII through X) and application tion from the introduction of a south­ Pythagorean philosophers, and finally to of the method of exhaustion to circles west Asian-style subsistence economy Egypt where he consulted "those who and spheres (Book XII). All of the into the Nile Valley. . . ." Moreover, interpret the wills of the gods." propositions in the Elements are estab­ Trigger's essay details the extensive bor­ Readers of Plato's dialogues encounter lished by deductive proofs; there is not a rowings of the Egyptians from South­ a number of references to advanced math­ single deductive proof in all of the extant western Asia, including all domesticated ematical concepts. They also encounter Egyptian mathematical writings. plants, many domesticated animals, and many references to Egypt. The only refer­ Some scholars have argued that the even aspects of pre-dynastic funerary ences in Plato's dialogues to Egyptian Egyptians must have been aware of the architecture. Trigger also points out that mathematics are in Phaedrus and The Pythagorean theorem (Gillings 1972). the Egyptian language is Afro-Asiatic. Laws. In Phaedrus Plato has Socrates Even if one were to grant that the 3. The alleged influence of ancient Egypt make a passing reference to the tradition Egyptians actually discovered the on the development of Greek mathematics: rhat Thoth discovered geometry, arith­ Pythagorean theorem, the Egyptian con­ Lumpkin's citation of the statement by metic, astronomy, and the alphabet. In tribution to the mathematics in Euclid's Diodorus Siculus is yet another example The Laws Plato recommends Egyptian Elements would still be very small: The of her research methods. Diodorus pedagogical methods for teaching chil­ Pythagorean theorem is proposition 47 (Library of History i. 95) is reporting die dren basic mathematics. A perceptive in Book I of the Elements, a work con­ tradition among die Egyptian priests that reader of Plato cannot escape the impres­ taining thirteen books. sion that by the time of Plato, Egypt held a number of illustrious Greeks studied in Lumpkin calls attention to what she little interest for Greek mathematicians. Egypt. The historical accuracy of this tra­ regards as a personnel attack on her cre­ dition is questionable. Didorus's list Diogenes Laertius (viii. 8) is the prin­ dentials. When I was preparing my article includes not only historical figures such as cipal source for the life of Eudoxus of I was aware that my comments could be Pythagoras, Plato, and Eudoxus, but also Cnidus. According to Lives of Eminent interpreted as .in ad hominem attack. the mythical figures Orpheus and Philosophers, Eudoxus was taught geom­ However, I felt that in light of the claim Daedalus; Diodorus also repeats the etry by Archytas of Tarentum. made in the foreword to the African- highly unlikely claim that Pythagoras Subsequently, he traveled to Athens where American Baseline Essays that the authors derived his doctrine of the transmigration he studied philosophy. Only then did he were experts on African and African- of souls from the Egyptians. travel to Egypt. Strabo (Geography, xvii. I. American history, a critical examination There are better sources that can be 29) reports a tradition that Eudoxus and of her credentials and those of Hunter consulted on the question of the influ­ Plato went to Egypt together and learned Havelin Adams III was in order. ence of Egypt on the development of astronomy from the Egyptian priests. There is no ancient tradition that Greek mathematics. Here, I confine my References comments to the traditions that Eudoxus studied mathematics during the Pythagoras, Plato, and Eudoxus studied sixteen months he was in Egypt. All references IO the writings of ancient Greek in Egypt. While the traditions sur­ authors are to the Locb Classical Library editions That the Egyptians contributed in of their works. rounding the life of Pythagoras do have some degree to the development of him studying in Egypt, neither Hero- Greek mathematics is not at issue. The Brace. C Loring, David P. Tracer. Lucia Allen Yaroch. dotos {Histories, iv. 95) nor Isocrates real issue is how much of Greek mathe­ John Robb, Karl Brandt, and A Russell Nelson. (Busiris 28), the very earliest witnesses 1993. "Clines and Clusters Versus 'Race': A Test matics was the product of other cultures, in Ancient Egypt and the Case of a Death on the to the career of Pythagoras, associate especially that of ancient Egypt, and how Nile." Yearbook of Physical Anthropology, him with the study of mathematics. Supplement to die American Journal of Physical much represents the original work of Anthropology 36: 1-31. New York: Wiley-Liss. Furthermore, both Diogenes Laertius Greek mathematicians. The evidence of (Lives of Eminent Philosophers, viii. 1) Gillings, Richard J. 1972. Mathematics in the Time extant Egyptian and Greek mathemati­ of the Pharaohs. Cambridge: MIT Press. and lamblichos (Life of Pythagoras, iii.- cal texts is that the Egyptians con­ Joseph, George Gherverghese. 1991. (Tauris: iv.) report that Pythagoras spent a con­ tributed very little to Greek mathemat­ London.) (Reprinted 1992). The Crest of the siderable length of time studying in Peacock: Non-European Roots of Mathematics. ics. A survey of the contents of Euclid's New York: Penguin. Babylonia among the Magi. Elements reveals detailed treatments of a Nelson, David. 1993. "Teaching Mathematics number of areas of mathematics that From a Multicultural Standpoint." In Diogenes Laertius (iii. 6) also men­ Multicultural Mathematics: Teaching Mathe­ were foreign to both Egyptian and tions Plato's visit to Egypt. According to matics from a Global Perspective, cd. by David Babylonian mathematics: the solution of Nelson, George Gherverghese Joseph, and Julian this account, Plato went first to North algebraic problems by geometry (Book Williams. Oxford: Oxford University Press- Trigger, G. B. 1983. "The Rise of Egyptian II); the theory of proportions for com­ Walter E Rowe is in the Department of Civilization." In Ancient Egypt: A Social mensurable and incommensurable History, ed. by B. G. Trigger. B. J. Kemp, D. Forensic Sciences at The George Washing­ quantities (Books V and VI); number O'Connor, and A. B. Lloyd. Cambridge: ton University in Washington, D. C. Cambridge University Press. D

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER March/April 1996 55 Messages from page 17 shows like "Jenny Jones" or "Sally Jessy show devoted to the supernatural bit the Raphael" and their ilk produce pro­ dust last fall. the Big Three automakers would begin grams promoting the reality of ghosts, "The Other Side"—whose topics mass-producing electric cars. satanism, and psychic phenomena. included "Talking to the Dead," "Pho­ If Mangum is on tJiose 400 radio sta­ Last Halloween, as die talk shows tographic Proof of the Paranormal," tions and he's predicting the winning were under attack for parading "any and "Miraculous Cancer Treatments," and numbers for these multi-million-dollar every pathology and dysfunction into our "America's Most Haunted"—was can­ lotteries, why haven't we heard stories living rooms" (Sen. Joseph Lieberman of celed after abysmal ratings, derisive about the thousands of lottery players Connecticut) and being "perpetrators of attacks by some television critics, and a who were forced to shate a big jackpot cultural rot" (fotmer Education Secretary midsummer revamping. because they all picked the same winning William Bennett), most of the talk shows The original host was Will Miller, combination suggested by Mangum? avoided the occult and stuck with their who is a psychotherapist, an ordained Apparendy operators of those 400 usual fodder of novel people and dys­ minister, and a former stand-up comic. radio stations aren't savvy enough to functional relationships. Despite the steady parade of bizarre raise that kind of question, or they sim­ Halloween day topics included con­ guests with incredible claims, Miller ply don't care if he has real psychic pow­ trolling husbands ("Sally Jessy prided himself on his nonconfrontational ers as long as he brings in listeners. Raphael"); incompatible sex drives style. When he was replaced, Miller told ("Gabrielle"); and meddling mothers- USA Today that he objected to the show's in-law ("Cordon Elliott"). exploitive nature. NBC complained that he couldn't empathize with the guests. Are America's trashy talk shows getting * » * With Miller gone, the program became skittish about the supernatural? less dependent on paranormal topics, but Halloween is usually the time when Finally, the only national television talk the show never got acceptable ratings. D

Statues from page 18 Mary, Hollywood madam Heidi Fleiss miraculous fashion. James "The Amazing" would convert to Catholicism and Randi said that some of these statues, when his mother steps down (Laura become a nun. those made of plaster or ceramic, are sim­ Steele); a billionaire who thinks that our ply soaking up the milk via capillary doom is near will lead a cult following attraction, and he recommends offering to a secret underwater city (Leah diem a teaspoon of ink to see if the statues Lusher); and "ER hunk George Clooney Meanwhile, something seems to have can consume it as eagerly, while remaining will be saved from a fiery death—by his gotten into the wotld's statues to make unstained. Statues made of marble have pet pig!" (Barbara Donchess). In the them exceedingly resdess during 1995. milk slowly trickling down dieir front side rival tabloid the Examiner (January 3, First, at least a dozen of Italy's statues of which is not easy to see. Some statues 1995), Gary Spivey predicted that the the Madonna started weeping tears of made of metal seem to be capable of con­ ghost of Jackie Kennedy would appear blood, according to a New York Times suming several liters of milk. The self- to Hillary Clinton, urging her to run for News Service story of April 1995. Some described psychic Uri Geller, asked to president in 1996. Ron Mangum pre­ of these miraculous tears were discov­ comment on the phenomenon by British dicted that Liz Taylor would have a close ered to be paint, others tinted olive oil. television, said "Miracles are very strange . call when stricken by the "flesh-eating Then, in September 1995, in India, .. almost paranormal." However, a Belfast virus" (actually a bacterium); and Linda statues of Ganesh, the Elephant God, newspaper noted mat "priests at the tem­ Georgian, host of the Psychic Friends developed a thirst for drinking milk. The ples would not allow anyone to inspect the Network infomercial, predicted that faithful offer diem milk on a teaspoon, statues for any devices that could consume after experiencing a vision of the Virgin which the statue appears to consume, in die milk." CD

Skeptical Briefs s the quarterly newsletter of the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal, published to inform skeptics about CSICOP activities and die pursuits of independent, local, and odier national skeptics organizations. DON'T MISS You'll find many exciting features in Skeptical Briefs, including die following regular columns: A Skeptic's Notebook, by Robert A. Baker, professor emeritus of psychology at the University of Kentucky and a CSICOP Fellow; Reality Check, by Milton Rothman, physicist and CSICOP ANOTHER ISSUE Consultant; Beyond Belief, by Tom Flynn. electronic media expert and director of Inquiry Media Productions: Inklings, by U.K. science writer Lewis Jones: Investigative Files, by Joe Nickell. author, Skeptical Briefs magician, and Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Inquiry.

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56 March/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER READERS FORUM

ficult is it to copy methods used by psy­ Viewers Find Flaws with 'Alien chic healers to fake blood? (Take a small hidden balloon or a hypodermic full of Autopsy' Film colored corn syrup and squirt it down the blade of a scalpel and you will get the I do most of the public Yerkes The film looks entirely too full of very "realistic" appearance of real bleed­ Observatory tours, as well as private scratches and light leaks. It is as if some­ ing cuts.) I do not believe the special programs, and so consider myself will­ one were told to make a modern film effects people when they say they can't ing and able to answer questions about appear old and went a bit too far. imagine how such a thing could be faked. astronomy. During the question-and- The special effects people may be At least one of the advertisements answer period someone inevitably asks, experts, but not in exobiology or sci­ was for the "alien autopsy video," which "What about Roswell?" The SKEPTICAL ence. They too were probably told they suggests we are watching an "infomer- INQUIRER has provided me both the were watching the real autopsy of the cial" designed to sell us the product. methods and information necessary to real alien. Extraordinary claims require extraor­ answer the question. The Sharper Image catalog sells for dinary proof. Not once are we given People have been asking me about more than $1,000 an "authentic" fake anything real, no knowledge we could the so-called alien autopsy video. "alien" made from the same mold that only have gotten from an authentic None of die people interviewed could produced die "alien" in the movie Roswell. extraterrestrial, no real artifacts. possibly be said to be experts in exobiol­ I find it fascinating that the Sharper In brief, the "alien autopsy film" was ogy! Where were die real biologists? The Image "alien" looks quite different from about the least likely candidate for proof astrophysicists? The pathologists? that shown in the alien autopsy film. that aliens exist that I have ever seen. It Many of those interviewed assume The entire movie was filmed with the is not scary, not realistic, and it is poorly the "film" was made in 1947 because camera person moving continuously, made (despite what we are told). For the dial's what they were told, over and much in die style of "N.Y.P.D. Blue" and same price of the video you can buy The over. If, however, the film was made indeed many modern commercials. I Day the Earth Stood Still and be more recently, all of their subsequent com­ believe such motion is intended to con­ thoroughly entertained. ments are worthless. vince viewers that they are watching a One of die nonexperts marvelled home movie. I think this is a dead give­ Richard Dreiser that the organs came out "like chunks of away. The anonymous camera person was Lake Geneva, Wise. meat," and that ihcrc was no connecting filming in a modern style. Real autopsy tissue. Now that's a correct assessment. films would not be made this way. If the organs aren't connected, they What's a telephone doing inside an I had an opportunity to view "Alien would slide around every time the operating theater? Autopsy: Fact or Fiction?" on its "alien" moved! I propose they were There are almost too many "props," November 25, 1995, rebroadcast. To me indeed "chunks" of something. The more than necessary. Most are inexpensive the most blatant Hollywood effect was the more I diink about it, the more the props one could find at a scientific or army scalpel cut along the side of the neck from "alien" resembles something that could surplus store (I have half in my dark­ the ear to the shoulder/chest region. It was have been half-baked in an oven. room). Where are the more sophisticated typical of a contemporary knife-cut effect, There did not appear to be any sign instruments one might expect to see? exhibiting the following characteristics: of ribs or the equivalent. The poor crea­ No X rays appear to have been taken! (1) As the blade was drawn along the ture's organs must have sloshed around How does the "surgeon" know how deep neck, the "blood" appeared immedi­ every time it moved! to cut into the cranium? ately, adjacent to the blade. (2) The We are told over and over that no No bones were removed from the blood appeared in a uniformly wide one in 1947 would have had the tech­ "alien." The insides of the "mouth" were line. (3) The blood appeared entirely to nology to make such a realistic film. We never checked. No teeth were shown. A one side of the blade ("uphill" from the are told such an elaborate hoax could tracheotomy was not performed! All of blade, at that). (4) The blood appeared not be made today. Over and over we these would be routine, especially if the only on the side of the blade away from are told how well made the film is, as if "alien" were real. The lack of such exam­ the camera. (5) Once the blood by repetition we will come to believe it. inations is consistent with the idea that appeared, it didn't drip or run, but Through sheer repetition, many watch­ the "alien" is not much more than a stayed where it had first appeared, in a ing may come to believe that the stuffed mask. line of uniform width for the duration of the cut. Only in later shots did we see autopsy was real. However, it is really a We are led to believe the blood drip a couple runs of blood from this cut. rather shoddy piece of filming. ping from the scalpel incisions is signifi­ Even then, the two drips had ceased Since there are so many obvious cant. Why is there no sign of blood com­ flaws, the question about when the film ing from the right damaged leg? (Would was made is moot. a dead alien continue to bleed?) How dif­ Readers continued on page 59

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER March/Apnl 1996 57 gence: An interview with Thomas R. McDonough / Getting smart about getting smarts / Carrying the war FILL IN THE GAPS IN YOUR into the never-never land of psi: Part 1 / Satanic cult 'survivor' stories / 'Old-solved mysteries': The Kecksburg incident / Magic, medicine, and meta­ physics in Nigeria / What's wrong with science educa­ Skeptical Inquirer COLLECTION tion? Look at the family, • 15% discount on orders of $100 or more • WINTER 1991 (vol. 15, no. 2): Special report: Gallup poll: Belief in paranormal phenomena / Science and • $6.25 a copy. Vols. 1-18 ($5.00 Vols. 19, 20). To order, use reply card insert • self-government / West Bank collective hysteria episode / Acceptance of personality test results / Belief JANUARYffEBRUARY 1996 (vol. 20, no. 1) How to make 'honesty' tests really measure honesty? / Astrology strikes in astrology: A test of the Barnum effect / A test of an alien for autopsy, Stores/ EMDR treatment, Lilienfeld back—but to what effect? / Diagnoses of alien kidnap­ clairvoyance using signal-detection / Intercessory I Psychic crime detectives, Wiseman, West, and Stemman pings that result from conjunction effects in memory / prayer as medical treatment? I Health statistics bad for our health, Paulas I Science and Mathematical magic for skeptics / The blind girl who saw reason in dim and television, Evans I Post Freudian dream the flash of the first nudear weapon test / Science: The FAU 1990 (vol. 15, no. 1): Neural Organization theory Gardner ($5.00) feminists' scapegoat? Technique: Treatment or torture / The spooks of quan­ tum mechanics /Science and Sir William Crook es / The "N* NOVEMBER/D€CEMB£R 1995 (vol. 19. no. 6) The GAO SLIMMER 1993 (vol 17. no. 4); The right hemisphere: An machine / Biological cycles and rhythms vs. biorhythms / report on Roswell, Klass I Why creationists don't 90 to esoteric doset? / Improving science teaching: The text­ 1990 CSICOP Conference. psychic fairs, Taylor, Eve, and Harrold I Eyewitness testi­ book problem / The eyewitness: imperfect interface mony and the paranormal, Wiseman, Smith, and between stimuli and story / Pathological science: An t 1990 (vol. 14. no. 4): Ghosts make news: How Wiseman I Objectivity and repeatability in science, update / Jack Horkheimer, 'Star Hustler,' interview / The four newspapers report psyche phenomena/Thinking ait Mussachia I Culture-bound syndromes as fakery false memory syndrome. icalry and creatively / Police pursuit of satanic crime. Part 2 / Bartholomew! Freud's theory of dreams. Gardner ($5.00) Order out of chaos in survival research / Piftdown. para­ SPRING 1993 (vol 17. no. 3): Anguished silence and digms, and the paranormal / Auras: Searching for the light 1199S (vol. 19, no. 5) The paradox helping hands: Autism and facilitated communication of knowledge. Loevinger/ Consciousness as a valid subject / Facilitated Communication, autism, and Ouija / SPRING 1990 (vol.14, no.3): Why we need to under­ for science. Ingalls I School daze: review of African- Treading on the edge: Practicing safe science with SET! stand science / The crisis in pre college science and American baseline essays. Rowe / Mystical medical alter- / Education for science / A threat to science / Charles math education / Police pursuit of satanic crime. Part nativtsm, Raso / China, chi, and chicanery Huston I Fuzzy Honorton's legacy to parapsychology / 1993 CSICOP 1 / The spread of satanic cult rumors / Lying about logic, Gardner ($5.00) Conference. polygraph tests / Worldwide disasters and moon phase. JULY/AUGUST 1995 (vol. 19, no. 4) How to WINTER 1993 (vol 17, no. 2): Spedal report sell a pseudosdence. Pratkanis I Rumors, self- 3.7 million Americans kidnapped by aliens? / WINTER 1990 (vol. 14, no. 2) The new catastrophtsm / A fulfilling prophecies, and national obses­ Psychics: Do police departments really use field guide to critical thinking / Cold fusion: A case sions, Paulos I Rose Mackenberg, Pankratz I them? / Psychic detectives: A critical exami­ history in 'wishful science'? The airship hysteria of Moon, planets, and disasters, Branham I nation / Therapeutic touch. / Improving sci­ 1896-97 / Newspaper editors and the creation-evolu­ Artifirial languages, Gardner I Project Mogul ence teaching in the US / The Big Sur 'UFO' tion controversy / Special report: New evidence of and the Roswell incident. ($$.00) /The strange case of the New Haven oys­ MJ-12 hoax. ters. MAY/JUNE 1995 (vol. 19, no. 3) The belief FALL 1999 (vol. 14, no. 1): Myths about sdence / The engine. A/cock / Is skepticism tenable? FALL 1992 (vol 17, no 1): A celebration of relativity of wrong / Richard Feynman on fringe sci­ Beloff plus Blackmore, Hyman, Kurtz, Isaac Asimov: A man for the universe, ence; Luis Alvarez and the explorer's quest / The two Alcock. and Gardner I Mediumship, Stein I Kendrick Frazier, Arthur C. Clarke. cultures / The 'top-secret UFO papers' NASA won't Ancient aluminum, Eggert I Crop circle Frederik Pohl, Harlan Ellison, L Sprague release / The metaphysics of Murphy's Law. mania wanes, Nickell I Doug Henning and de Camp, Carl Sagan, Stephen Jay Gould, SUMMER 1989 (vol. 13, no. 4): The New Age—An TM, Gardner IA young Grand Canyon? Heaton. ($5.00) Martin Gardner. Paul Kurtz, Donald Goldsmith, James examination: The New Age in perspective / A New Randi, and E. C Krvpp I Gaia without mysticism / Age reflection in the magic mirror of science / The MARCH/APRIL 1995 (vol 19, no. 2) Remembering Gaia's scientific coming of age / The curse of the rune- New Age: The need for myth in an age of science / dangerously. Loftus I Antiscience in academia. Gross stone: Deathless hoaxes / Night terrors, sleep paraly­ Channeling / The psychology of channeling / 'Entities* and Levitt I Feminism now alienating women from sci­ sis, and devil-stricken telephone cords from hell / in the linguistic minefield / Crystals / Consumer cul­ ence. Koertge I 'Lights out': A faxlore phenomenon, Scientific creationism: The social agenda of a pseudo- ture and the New Age / The Shirley Madame phe­ Brunvand I Critique of evolution study, Larhammar. science / Observing stars in the daytime: The chimney nomenon / Special report: California court jails psy­ ($5.00) myth / Does an ancient Jewish amulet commemorate chic surgeon. JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1995 (vol. 19, no. 1) Wonder the conjunction of 2 B.C.? SPRING 1989 (vol. 13. no. 3): High school and skepticism. Sagan I Putting away childish things, SUMMER 1992 (vol. 16, no. 4): Freedom Dawkins I The astonishing hypothesis. Cridt. I Nuclear Skeptical biology teachers and pseudoscientific belief of scientific inquiry under siege / Psychic / Evidence for Bigfoot? Alleged pore struc­ medicine, Seaborg I Literary science blunders, Gardner experiences: Psychic illusions / The scien­ Inquirer I Air Force report on the Roswell incident / 1994 C5I- ture in Sasquatch footprints / The lore of tist's skepticism / The persistent popularity levitation / Levilation 'miracles' in India / COP Conference. ($5.00) of the paranormal / Self-help books: Science, pseudoscience, and the cloth of FALL 1994 (vol. 18, no. 5): Empirical evidence for rein­ Pseudoscience in the guise of science? Turin / Rather than just debunking, encour­ carnation? / Reader's guide to the ozone controversy / age people to think / Mi 12 papers 'authen­ SPRING 1992 (vol, 16, no. 3): Special ticated'? / A patently false patent myth. Bigfoot evidence: Are these tracks real? / Why we are Report: The Maharishi caper: JAMA hood­ unmoved as oceans ebb and flow / Anomalous phe­ winked / Myths of subliminal persuasion: nomena in Kazakhstan / False memories. The cargo-cult science of subliminal per­ WINTER 1989 (vol. 13, no. 2): Spedal suasion / Subliminal perception: Facts and report: The 'remembering water* contro­ : 1994 (vol 18. no 4.): "Extraordinary science' fallacies / Subliminal tapes / The Avro VZ-9 versy / Bibliographic guide to the 'dilution and the strange legacy of Nikola Tesla / Nikola Tesla: 'frying saucer1 / Two 19th-century skeptics controversy* / Pathologies of sdence, pre­ Genius, visionary, and eccentric / Pollens on the *Shroud*: Augustus de Morgan and John Fiske. cognition, and modem psychophysics / A A study in deception / Do televised depictions of para­ reaction-time test of ESP and precognition / normal events influence viewers' beliefs? / Synchronicity WINTER 1992 (vol.16, no.2): On being sued: The chill­ Chinese psychic's pillbottle demonstration / The Kiriian and the archetypes / The synthetic mind dashes with the ing of freedom of expression/The crop-circle phenom­ technique / Certainty and proof in creationist thought reductionist text / Psi in pyschotogy enon / Update on the 'Mars effect' / A dissenting note FALL 1988 (vol. 13, no. 1): Special report Astrology on Ertel's 'Update' / Magic Melanin: Spreading scien­ i 1994 (vol. 18, no. 3): The Antiscience Threat The and the presidency / Improving Human Performance: tific illiteracy among minorities. Part 2 / Adventures in growth of antiscience / The antiscience problem / What about parapsychology? / The China syndrome: science and cyclosophy / Searching for security in the Measuring the prevalence of false memories / Bleulers Further reflections on the paranormal in China / mystical. views on inheritance of acquired characteristics and on Backward masking / The validity of graphological psi phenomena / Examining the satank panic ... A per­ FALL 1991 (vol. 16. no. 1): Near-death experiences. / analysis / The intellectual revolt against science. sonal perspective ... A sociological and historical per­ Multicultural pseudoscience: Spreading scientific illit­ SUMMER 1948 (vol. 12, no. 4): Testing psi claims in spective / Philosophy and the paranormal. Part 2: eracy. Part 1 / Science and commonsense skepticism / China, Kurtz, Alcock. Frazier, Karr, Klass, and Randi I Skepticism, nvrades, and knowledge Spook Hill / Lucian and Alexander / 1991 CSICOP con­ The appeal of the occult Some thoughts on history, ference. WMTER 1994 (vol. 18. no. 2) The new skepticism / religion, and science / Hypnosis and reincarnation / Philosophy and the paranormal. Part 1: The problem of X1991 (vol. 15. no. 4): LuckJ dreams/Nature fak­ Pitfalls of perception / Wegener and pseudosdence: 'psi.' / Electromagnetic field cancer scares / Attacks on ing in the humanities / Carrying the war into the Some misconceptions / An investigation of psychic role-playing games / Globaj fortune-telling and Bible never-never land of psi: Part 2 / Coincidences / Locating crime-busting / High-frying health quackery / The prophecy / Chemftov pattern puzzle. invisible buildings / True believers. bar-code beast

FALL 1993 (voL 18, no. 1): 'Perspectives on education in SPRING 1991 (vol. 15. no. 3): Special report HMI For a complete listing of our back issues, America': Sandia study challenges misconceptions / Do pseudoscience / Searching for extraterrestrial intelli­ call 800-634-1610. Readers continued from page 57 the worst possible design of an I beam. I ported alien wreckage and two purported beams were invented as a more efficient alien "typewriters" designed for six-fin­ running by the time they were seen. way to carry a load. This is done by gered hands. The program enthusiastically These characteristics are the result of a putting as much material as possible compared them to our most advanced tube hidden behind die blade that deliv­ away from the center axis of the beam. ergonomic hand-shaped keyboard. ers stage blood from a syringe operated The best design uses thick top and bot­ Only one problem. The alien "key­ off-camera. Remember the times you've tom cross sections and a thin vertical board" has two closely set "hands" cut yourself with a sharp hobby knife or section. The middle section of an 1 beam angled inward toward the user, complete razor? Rather than appearing instandy, does little to contribute to the load-car­ with depressions for the wrists. The the blood seems to take a couple of sec­ rying capacity of the structure. In fact, aliens would have to glue their elbows many times holes will be drilled through onds before it gushes up. For a corpse together in front of their navels to use it! the middle section of an I beam to with no circulation, the blood appeared The remainder of the wreckage in no reduce its weight even more with little at the cut without delay, yet only in quan­ way resembles the Roswell foil-and-balsa effect on its load-carrying capacity. The tity sufficient to form a line without run­ described by (for want of a better term) beam shown on this broadcast appears ning. This would indicate tls.it the source "witnesses." of blood had moved on with the blade, as though someone tried to make an I I recently mailed to Barry Karr [pub­ rather than originating from inside the beam that "looked alien." But no matter lisher's representative, SI] a tape contain­ body. At no time during this cut did the what planet you're from, the laws of ing a mid-1950s episode of "Science camera move around for position as it did physics are the same. Only beings with Fiction Theater," titled "Bulletproof." in the rest of the film. This would be nec­ subhuman knowledge of structural The program concerned the discovery of essary to conceal the blood delivery tube design would have designed an I beam bulletproof alien "foil" left in the desert on the far side of the scalpel. like the one shown on this broadcast. by a damaged saucer. I wonder just People trying to launch careeis in the Since the first time I heard about the when the Roswell story developed the motion picture industry must demon­ incident near Roswell, I had hoped that "super-foil" detail. I suspect a check of strate their skills to the establishment. someday the truth would come out the records will prove the television This often is accomplished dirough one about what really happened, but this show came first. or more demonstration films done as stu­ film is an obvious hoax. dent film projects. George Lucas's THX R. D. Horton 1138 was one such student film project. Gene Schildmeier Wilmore, Ky. If the participants demonstrate their skills Anderson, Ind. adequately, they stand to land themselves careers in the industry. Remember Stan With regard to die "Alien Autopsy" film, I Winston's statement after viewing this There is no need to go into any fine noticed in die still frames reproduced on film? "If you came to me and said that detail to decide whether or not the pages 18 and 19 of SI (Nov./Dec. 1995), you created tins illusion, you'd be work­ Roswell alien autopsy film was a hoax. If that die wall telephone clearly has a coiled ing here [snaps fingers] like that!" It's my it had been an autopsy of a genuine handset cable. I thumbed through some opinion that we've witnessed a skills "alien" it would have been the most old magazines (National Geographic) and demonstration film, and that the talents important autopsy in the history of found die earliest depiction of a coiled behind it soon will be coming forward to medicine. Any official film would have handset cable occurred in a Bell claim their new careers. been of the highest possible quality— Telephone advertisement in December of but what we saw was pathetic. 1954. Has anyone determined when Wayne Orlicki Secondly, as pointed out in the coiled handset cables became available? If Hemet, Calif. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER (Nov./Dec. 1995, they were not made until the 1950s then p. 16), it would have been attended by the film, which purports to have been several unmasked official observers, but shot in 1947, is proven to be a hoax. The Fox television network aired "Alien not one was seen. Why not? Because any Autopsy: Fact or Fiction?" for the third faces seen would have been identifiable E. Vernon Buck time on November 25, 1995. However and the physical presence of these iden­ San Lorenzo, Calif. this time, in addition to showing an tified verifiable. Hoaxers could not risk autopsy of an alien creature, they pre­ this, so every person seen in the autopsy Several other readers commented similarly. sequences had to be masked. sented footage showing pieces of the alien The phone and the coiled cord at first craft that crashed near Roswell. Pieces of appeared to be obvious anachronisms, a a control panel and an I beam were Stanley Shoop 'smoking gun" proving the film to be a shown. Being a mechanical engineer, the Elstrce, Herts., U.K. hoax. But very recently several photos pub­ shape of the I beam caught my attention. lished in 1947 of such a phone and coiled The top and bottom cross sections of cord have been found, and a similar wall the beam were very thin and the middle Fox recendy showed "Alien Autopsy" phone (Western Electric Model 354) existed vertical section was very thick. This is again—with "added footage" of pur­ as early as 1937.—EDITOR

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER March/April 1996 59 The "'Alien Autopsy' Show-and-Tell: nique available. Stage blood can be man­ vision in the 1950s, before the advent of Long on Tell, Short on Show" report by ufactured in two separate compounds, color or when it was still something of C. Eugene Emery, Jr. reminded me of a one of which resembles iodine, while the an expensive novelty. Thus, Navy and story I read and enjoyed when it was other dries invisibly on any surface. The Marine Corps footage was transformed published 20 years ago. Theodore dear element can be painted on a subject's into black and white for documentaries Sturgeon's "Occam's Scalpel" (1971, skin and the brownish liquid on the such as Victory at Sea, The Twentieth U.P.D. Publishing) presages the present ostensible "cutting" blade. When the two Century, and Air Power. The networks craze over the distorted mythology of come into contact, realistic stage blood apparently got into the habit of assem­ that "Roswell Incident." oozes forth. One advantage of this inex­ bling their own libraries of stock pensive and simple technique is that the footage—in black and white—so even In contrast to the national news "cutting" blade can be passed from hand when color became the standard, refer­ releases and "questionable" autopsy films to hand with no tubes for die filmmakers ences to World War II continued to use on which 5/ dwells, Sturgeon's story is to conceal. the secondhand black-and-white stock about a closely held conspiracy of silence footage radier than the color conver­ between two physician brothers whose Second, on page 18, a Kodak spokes­ sions in the government archives. aim is to influence a single man into cor­ person is quoted as saying that he was recting world ecology disaster. They use asked to authenticate the date of a print It was not until the English produc­ one brother's highly refined moulage of the "autopsy" film. Shooting such a tion The World At War was aired in the skills to create a convincing alien documentary event indoors without United States in the early 1970s that the cadaver, along with the other's delicate providing extensive artificial lighting public discovered that the familiar stock sense of theater, to manipulate a man. would be best accomplished using a Pacific war footage was actually in color, Any sort of Roswell incident smoking negative film, especially given the evi­ a point driven home more emphatically gun of incriminating evidence is thor­ dent inexperience of the cinematogra- with the movie Midway, which con­ oughly destroyed by their immediate pher. Making the reasoning assumption verted the 16mm originals, with incom­ cremation of the model. that the original film was a negative and plete success, into the standard 35mm not a reversal stock, it is meaningless to Hollywood format. One of Sturgeon's characters quotes date the print. The "autopsy" could eas­ Occam's razor as a test of logical verity The hoaxers, either unaware that mil­ ily have been filmed recently on a new holding that, "Given an effect and a itary color photography was quite com­ negative and then printed onto positive choice of possible causes, die simplest mon in World War II or convinced that stock of the correct vintage. cause is always the one most likely to be most audiences would accept that in 1947 true." Using this harmlessly erroneous As a longtime, yet nonscientist, black-and-white film was all that was rule (by which propounders of the reader, I am pleased to have finally found available, used black-and-white film to "Roswell Incident" deceive), he manip­ a subject on which I could comment. lend an air of bogus authenticity and ulates a man into expending money and antiquity to their proceedings. Also, effort working to repel alien invaders. David Kalat because color stock tends to degrade more Could this fiction have inspired (or even Bloomington, Ind. quickly than black-and-white stock, it tainted slightly) the phony autopsy on may have been next to impossible to find what appeared to experts as an appar- usable, 50-year-old, color film. endy "standing lifecast" alien? "Ros- One aspect of the Roswell autopsy hoax The use of black-and-white film is wellites" have obviously not adhered to that has inspired surprisingly litde com­ among the best evidence of a hoax. Why the rigor of formal logic, but how can ment is the nature of the film itself. Why would scientists not document this they be so gullible as to proclaim belief would a 1947 autopsy be filmed in black remarkable "discovery" as best they could? that "alien invasion" is the simplest solu­ and white? The hoaxers, and most of their Color film of an autopsy would have far tion under a perverted Occam's test critics as well, seem to be under the mis­ more scientific value than black-and- when discovering twisted metallic taken impression that American military white. The first atom bomb tests, two reflectors and supporting braces? cameramen of that era used only black- years earlier, were filmed in color. Why and-white film. After all, wasn't World not this even more astounding event? Jonathan S. Hudson War II "the one in black and white"? Color stock was readily available. In short, to ask die question is also to answer it. La Luz, N.M. In fact, the Navy used color stock throughout the war, a fact that infuriated the Army when it discovered it had been Edward B. Furey, Jr. Your coverage of the "Alien Autopsy" pro­ one-upped in this aspect of the publicity Woodhaven, N.Y. gram in the November/December 1995 wars. In John Ford's documentary of the issue raised two points. On page 19, Joe Battle of Midway, gun-camera footage of Nickell writes that the illusion of a scalpel blasted Zeroes and kamikazes plunging Readers might with to consult our subse­ leaving a trail of blood on the skin was into or just missing carriers and odier quent article, "How to make an 'Alien probably achieved using "a tube fastened men of war blaze forth in vivid hues. for 'Autopsy" by Trey Stokes, a Hollywood to the far side of the blade." In fact, there However, most of the documentaries creature effects artist (SI, January/ is a more efficacious special effects tech­ using this film were produced for tele­ February 1996).—EDITOR D

60 March/Apnl 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Why Creationists Don't Go past thirty years, science has been solidly college in die United States. identified as a somehow inhuman practice, 1 wonder, however, if the conclusion to Psychic Fairs and all things technological, as unnatural. I would have been the same if similar stud­ I read with great interest John Taylor, see few attempts to challenge this paradigm. ies were done at superior schools such as Raymond Eve, and Francis Harrold's M.I.T. (where I received a Ph.D. in Physics study on baseline cultural belief systems Mark W Tiedemann in 1944), Harvard, Oxford, or Cambridge. ("Why Creationists Don't Go to Psychic St. Louis, Mo. Fairs," SI, November/December 1995). I Henry F. Ivey tend to agree, the rules one learns early act Philadelphia, Pa. as filters and selectors later in life. In a I was particularly delighted with the way, information is like an infection, and research report showing that creationists some information is more virulent. What are not attracted to "fantastic science." I am puzzled by a statement made in "Why people become "infected" with early on Over recent years I have argued in Creationists Don't Go to Psychic Fairs." In may give an indication as to their suscep­ two (or three) letters to you that discussing the correlations between the tibility to ideas encountered later in life. Christians and CSICOP are allies in Fantastic Science scale and other variables 1 found their methods acceptable, with contending against "fantastic science." (Figure 1 and the text on page 27), the one exclusion that I think needs to be Certainly there are many Christians who authors cite Pearson product-moment corre­ addressed. That is. the degree to which hold beliefs that I cannot hold. For lations of -.20, -. 16, -. 15, and -. 13. The first these categories of base beliefs are sup- example, I would not fit into Taylor et three are stated as significant (at alpha - .05 ported-opposed in the university itself. al.'s definition of a "creationist." level) but weak, while the last is dismissed as I write science fiction. This genre has Furthermore, there are people who use insignificant. Yet, with the large number of a strangely ambivalent existence within the mantle of Christianity to disguise respondents (N = 300+), all four correlations academe. It is, ostensibly, an art. It is self-serving "ministries." Nevertheless, would be statistically significant at the .05 writing. Therefore, to pursue it as such, this SI report documents empirically level. As far as practical significance goes, all one would naturally select those courses that traditional Christians reject "fantas­ four correlations are extremely weak. With a in college designed to enable and facili­ tic science" and the immodest claims of large sample size, almost any correlation can tate one's art. Such courses are found in irrational postmodernism. Even though be found to be "statistically significant"; the humanities. However, if one is going CSICOP is far from agreement with praaical significance usually requires a larger to write science fiction with an emphasis Christianity on some issues, CSICOP correlation coefficient than those provided. on science, and elects to take courses in should not reject an ally. This is particu­ Some readers may misinterpret the text and the sciences to facilitate that part of the larly critical because rational thought is Figure I and conclude that the Fantastic endeavor, one finds consistent and often­ losing ground to the irrationalism read­ Science scale is practically related to the four times violent resistance on the part of the ily found in the entertainment media variables (Biblical Literalism, Vitality, humanities instructors. One is told one and increasingly found in humanities Abortion, and Crime). Am I missing some­ doesn't need science, that technological and social studies departments of many thing here? Arc these correlations statistically studies are useless, that one will be "cor­ colleges and universities. significant? Practically significant? rupted" by such courses. There is an antagonism toward the sciences and tech­ I support the SKEPTICAL INQUIRERS nologies within a large body of academics editorial practice of slapping religious char­ Chris Migotsky that cannot be dismissed as simply inter­ latans who make ridiculous claims but CIRCE departmental rivalry. What effect docs refraining from criticism of religion in gen­ University of Illinois this have on students already ambivalent eral. Those Christians who seek a founda­ at Urbana-Champaign about the kind of world they are matric­ tion on which to base morality, who Champaign, III. ulating into? If one is already biased believe that "the heavens declare the glory toward one of the two nonrational belief of God," and who have found a reason to systems Taylor, Eve, and Harrold avoid living on a secular "what's-in-it-for- Freud's Theory of Dreams describe, encountering this attitude in me?" basis are your allies in the struggle against the "claims of the paranormal." the university must certainly be taken The article by Martin Gardner, "Waking into account in any analysis of how those Up from Freud's Theory of Dreams" (SI, belief systems function. It would be Emil J. Posavac November/December 1995), depicted interesting to see a breakdown of course Skokie, 111. Freud essentially as a quack and his ideas and career choices among rJiese groups. without scientific merit. I consider that Exactly how many of either choose to go judgment a bit unfair and extreme. into hard sciences? Taylor, Eve, and Harrold say "So much for Freud's psychological theories reflect the any optimism on our part that pseudosci- only society he knew, that of middle-class It is possible that the ongoing debate cntific beliefs are eliminated by exposure mid-Europe during the final decades of the between rational and nonrational belief sys­ to higher education." I am sure that their nineteenth century. The therapeutic results tems has been worsened by a rhetoric of conclusion would have been the same had of psychoanalytic treatment arc difficult to mutual antagonism. At some point in the their study been done in any liberal arts test by double-blind methods, which seems

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Mjrch/Apfil 1996 61 LETTERS TO THE EDITOR equally true of procedures that are currcndy merits a place in your journal, dedicated Reading Martin Gardner's article on Freud popular. During die periods when Freudian to scientific investigation of false claims. and his dream theory reminded me that concepts were in vogue, there were many In style, content, and argument ad even skeptical inquirers are as subject to patients who felt dicy had been helped and hominem, die report seems more appro­ the destructive aspects of emotional irra­ analysts who believed in efficacy of dieir priate for the National Enquirer. tionality as are die rest of us, incidentally methods. Of course die same applies to Freud's dieories of dreams, sexuality, and one of Freud's lasting contributions. much of alternative medicine as currcndy neuroses arc regarded with skepticism today, Because Freud made many gross errors, practiced. No doubt the placebo effect is but if we reject from die history of science all the entire psychoanalytical movement is ridiculed by implication and quotes of enhanced after much money and time have those who made errors, and if we judge them been spent on a procedure; nor can most "experts" on the "absurdity" of psycho­ by our dmes radier dian theirs, we have a practitioners ever admit even to themselves analysis. Sadly the date he chooses for its short list indeed. A first-year student today diat rJiey arc chadatans. demise in die seventies is when psycho­ knows more physics dian did Newton. analysis regained credibility for me So at worst Freud was not much differ­ Science is constandy forming, testing, and through its infant-based experimental ent from many of our current "healers" accepting or rejecting hypotheses, and die study from such people as Mahler, Emdee, except dial he expressed considerable self- basic Freudian hypothesis—dut childhood Winnicot, etc., and its more sound rein- doubt and was probably sincere in believ­ influences adult personality—permeates terpretation by people such as Erich ing that he had made important discover­ Western thought today, stimulating research Fromm. 1 believe intelligent reevaluation ies. At die very least he opened a previously and practice diroughout civilization. is one hallmark of good science. tabu area and made discussion of human sexuality and its implications acceptable. L. Dodge Fernald Most of the skeptical inquirers I have Furthermore, there is die Freud of his Assistant Dean and met not only do not seem to see any value later years who wrote more as a sociologist Senior Lecturer on Psychology in emotional irrationality, but do not and anthropologist. In his book The Harvard University Extension know how to deal effectively with this Future of an Illusion, published in 1927, School aspect of man's nature. May I suggest that he discusses religion, its origin, and why it Cambridge, Mass. they could well use some of the techniques persists despite its contradiction to reason developed by psychoanalysis to acknowl­ and science. Freud writes as a fervent edge that value and deal with it effectively defender of logic and scientific trudi. The I was thoroughly disgusted to see Martin when it is destructive. book is entirely relevant today. It is brief, Gardner's arrogant dismissal of Freud's concise, and much of it is in the form of (1900) Interpretation of Dreams. His cita­ Warren A. Baker, M.D. an elegant, socratic dialectic between a tions of Freud's universal symbolism (e.g., Denver, Colo. skeptic and an advocate of belief. The "male sex symbols" such as guns) are taken final pages aniticipate the attacks on sci­ out of context. Modern psychoanalytic ence currently coming from the postmod­ dream interpretation uses the patient's own It disturbs me to see Freud's work dismissed ernists and deconstructionists and associations to determine any symbolism, in so cavalier a way. Yes, Freud was wrong. answers diem beautifully. The work ends but more importantly die dream's feeling Yes, his approaches were flawed. But it is with the following sentence: "No, our sci­ states and behavioral patterns offer valu­ unfair to use the vantage of hindsight to ence is no illusion, but an illusion it able clues to current conflicts. . . . rebuke him for having been dishonest. would be to suppose that what science cannot give us we get elsewhere." Gardner's citation of die writer Tom Let us be as charitable to Freud as we Wolfe as an expert on how modern neuro- are to Lamarck; let us recognize him for Interestingly enough, that Hide 56-page science has proved Freud's concept of his efforts to find a window into a realm of book is still in print as a paperback and "neurosis" as merely a "laughable histori- darkness. Instead of attacking him, the inexpensively available. Skeptics will enjoy cism" is absurd. The concensus of experts way some have found joy in attacking reading it and will conclude that an illusion in the study of mental disorders is that Christopher Columbus, I think it is more it would be to call die author a charlatan. brain physiology is an important compo­ appropriate to celebrate Freud's role as a nent in understanding die origin of schiz­ pioneer, an observer, and, more than any­ Fred Kohler ophrenia and other psychotic disorders, thing else, a man who cared deeply and Ashland, Ore. but die individual's social-psychological honesdy for his patients and who sought environment cannot be discarded. This is to live up to die high moral standards of a even more so the case for die psychiatric doctor of medicine. classifications of anxiety and somatoform As a new subscriber I was quite surprised to disorders, dissociative and gender identity read the article by Martin Gardner. It left Jefferson Swycaffer disorders, and personality disorders diat me skeptical of die SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. San Diego, Calif. were called "neurosis" in Freud's era. The article derides Freud's dream die- ory, employing the words of odiers to call him a "quack." No empirical data are cited, Stephen Safran, Ph.D. Martin Gardner's "Waking Up from and no competing theories are considered. Clinical Psychologist Freud's Theory of Dreams" summoned up I do not understand how this article South Nyack, N.Y. some painful memories (or were diey just

62 March/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

dreams?) of my graduate school and UFO Survey ing. Person A rates several razors; person B internship experiences in clinical psychol­ notes the ratings, devises a way to track ogy and interactions with the psychiatric So Scripps-Howard is surprised at the large the razors, and randomly assigns half the profession. My fellow interns and I, prod­ number of positive responses to die ques­ razor population to the pyramid and half ucts of a strong behavioral/experimental tion, "Some Americans feel that flying to no pyramid. After an agreed-upon orientation, endured the illogic and closed saucers are real and that the federal govern­ time, person B shuffles the razors (ouch), reasoning of several psychoanalytically ori­ ment is hiding the trudi about them from and then gives them to person A for post- ented clinical mentors. The only solace us. Do you think this is very likely, some­ pyramid rating, and recording of the from this reverie: We learned there was what likely, or unlikely?" (News and answers. The statistical analysis is per­ one object that absolutely could not be a Comment, November/December 1995). formed against the tracking labels, and phallic symbol: The penis. Skeptic that I am, I would have answered, then the labels are unblinded to see if die "Of course. The evidence is very strong pyramid made the razors sharper. Joseph C. Keating, Jr., Ph.D. that some large number of Americans, say This test is simpler and cheaper than Professor more than one million, believe such non­ microscopic analysis, and focuses on the Los Angeles College sense." The question fails to distinguish quality of the shave, while excluding per­ of Chiropractic between whether it is a question about the ceived bias (as long as B is honest). The Whittier, Calif. beliefs of Americans or about the existence edge analysis might miss some magical of flying saucers. Survey questions must be essence. Our family doesn't shave, but very clear and unambiguous. Just how blind (or double-blind) testing is quite Roswell Briefing Paper many of the responses were contaminated applicable for many situations. by this ambiguity is unknown, but die pos­ sibility exists. Phil Klass (The GAO Roswell Report Barbara Judd and Congressman Schiff," SI, Berkeley, Calif. November/December 1995) is a mite off John Forester base concerning the 130-page "Roswell Sunnyvale, Calif. incident" briefing paper provided to U.S. 'Latah' Deceptive Behavior Rep. Steven H. Schiff (R-N.M.). I did not provide die paper to Schiff, Someone responds "very likely" to the I found Robert E. Bartholomew's skeptical and it was not provided to him in question, "Some Americans feel that flying inquiry into the deceptive nature of December 1992. Dated December 1993, saucers are real and that the federal govern­ "latah" (Nov./Dec. 1995) a worthwhile die paper was prepared by Fred Whiting ment is hiding the truth about them from critique of historical studies of that behav­ of die Fund for UFO Research (I was one us. Do you think that this is very likely, ior but also a bit heartless and a tad reck­ of a number of contributors of informa­ somewhat likely, or unlikely?" What docs less. True or not, identifying latah as sim­ tion included in the volume). The Fund the respondent mean? Is the respondent ple deception is akin to identifying trau­ provided the document to Schiff and saying that indeed some Americans feel as matic-memory repression as simple decep­ other interested panics on Capitol Hill in stated, or that the respondent personally tion. I recognize that removing layers of December 1993. feels this way? There is enough ambiguity misinterpretation and misdiagnosis is a Now what else do you suppose Phil got in the Scripps-Howard News Service/Ohio necessary step in the healing process, but I wrong? University question quoted above to cause recommend caution in the presentation of lack of confidence in any analysis of the such an analysis. Bartholomew eschews responses. Suppose half the respondents the tendency among Western anthropolo­ Karl T. Pflock interpreted the question one way, the other gists and psychiatrists to soften their Placitas, N.M. half interpreted it the other way. My com­ analyses of non-Western frauds without plaint about that question is not so much recognizing a sympathetic reason behind that it is "leading," but rather that it is such softening. Speaking only for myself, Philip J. Klass replies: ambiguous. the fact that people who exhibit latah behavior are self-aware does not disqualify An article published in the January 14, 1994, them for the same kind of compassion I Albuquerque Journal, based on an interview Robert FitzGcrald would feel for a person who has repressed with Karl Pflock, reported "Pflock said he University of New Haven a traumatic memory. and other UFO researchers first made formal West Haven. Conn. contact with Schiff's staff about the incident Although softening our analyses of in August 1992. Pflock and fellow researcher fraud behavior in distant cultures on the Fred Whiting subsequently compiled a 130- Blind Testing and Objectivity basis of sympathy is an insidious kind of page 'briefing paper."... That paper was arrogance, still, compassion has its place given to Schiff's office in December. . . ." I Michael Mussachia ("Objectivity and beside skepticism in die healing process. erred in assuming it was December of 1992 Repeatability in Science," November/ That local culture accepts the deceptive rather than 1993. While Pflock suggests there December 1995) missed describing a test nature of the taboo-breaking behavior were other errors, he fails to cite any that is valuable in many ways: blind test­ may not be such a bad thing after all.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Mjreh/April 1996 63 LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Malaysian women who exhibit latah gist he knows who subscribes to the "Some cases" should be "almost all behavior up until now have been able to SKEPTICAL INQUIRER and that Beloff is cases." In The Relentless Question, Beloff's deal with the hardships of their lives "probably the only truly sane voice in the credulity also extends to far more recent through that pressure valve, with societal entire field of parapsychology." Let me phenomena than such miracles as the lev- sanction. To mindlessly and heartlessly state for the record that I have been a sub­ itations of St. Teresa, St. Joseph of rob them of that valve based on our for­ scriber since Vol. 1, No. 1 (the magazine Copertino, and D. D. Home. On page 59 eign Mores of Truth may be still greater was called the Zetetic back then), and I he defends the probable genuineness of Ted Serios's psychic photography, Uri arrogance. know quite a few other parapsychologists who are also subscribers. (I imagine Geller's many teleportations, Arigo's psy­ Richard Wiseman, for instance, might chic surgery, and the incredible phenom­ Richard Hogen have purchased a copy of the ena produced by the discredited medium Boulder, Colo. November/December 1995 issue, as he Helen Duncan who died in 1956. See my contributed one of the articles in it.) review of Beloff's book as reprinted in On While I have a great deal of affection and the Wild Side. Beloff's reply, also reprinted, Who Is More Biased? respect for John Beloff, it must be said continues to defend Serios against "pur­ that his enthusiastic embrace of some of ported" explanations of how he performed It does not appear from your report on the the early mediumistic phenomena places his obvious trick. If Tort will check on Flight from Science and Reason conference him in a very small minority of parapsy­ Beloff's recent utterances he will find him (November/December 1995) that it prop­ chologists. In this respect at least, he may still "going astray" on the most outlandish erly examined the political implications of be far more credulous than most of his claims of modern psychics. science, nor the boundaries between differ­ parapsychological colleagues. ences of opinion, sloppy science, and pseu- doscience. I am particularly perturbed by I am sympathetic with most of the Martin Gardner the apparent equating of militant or radical views expressed in the SKEPTICAL Hendersonville, N.C. environmentalism with being a member of INQUIRER if a little put off by the dogma­ the Environmental Defense Fund (E.D.F.), tism, mediocre scholarship, and irrational­ and being pscudoscientific. ity of many of the contributors to its pages. Lorenz and Sauerbruch I am not a member of E.D.F., and your It was instructive to read Arlin Baldwin's report unfortunately gives no specifics for (Letters, Nov./Dec. 1995) enthusiasm over My thanks to Bradley K. Evans (Letters, Rothman's claim that E.D.F biases statis­ having a "ringside experience with 'heavy­ January/February 1996) for the informa­ tics, but I am familiar with such claims weights' trading punches." This reveals the tion he supplied concerning Konrad against other environmental organiza­ hunger of die readership of the SKEPTICAL Lorenz and Ferdinand Sauerbruch. tions. Anti-environmentalists commonly INQUIRER for a real debate of the issues. Lorenz's outspoken approval of Nazi claim that risks are small, while not noting But with Beloff as the sole defender of the eugenics is well known. Sauerbruch's that those who benefit from a particular field against five of CSlCOP's top guns, position is more equivocal and must be policy don't share in them. There are dif­ what actually occurred bore a stronger balanced by his joining the resistance ferences too in risks one accepts voluntar­ resemblance to a gang mugging in an alley movement against Hitler; Lorenz ily, and risks that are shoved down one's than to a heavyweight fight. How about a denounced the Nazis only after the war. throat. Many risk calculations are based real debate on the issues? I stand ready, as In both cases it's hard to know how much on imperfect knowledge. In my experi­ do many of my parapsychological col­ of a role plain self-preservation played. ence, when environmentalists do the work leagues. After the war both made great efforts to of risk calculations they often do a far prove their lack of support for the Third Douglas M. Stokes more objective and scientific job of it than Reich's ethics. There are many half-truths Paoli, Pa. their critics. Your article makes me far involved and no doubt some total lying. more suspicious of Rothman's objectivity than of E.D.F.'s Cesar Tort is right in chiding me (Letters, Ralph Estling November/December 1995) for referring Ilminster, Somerset Robert Clear to John Beloff's The Relentless Question as U.K. Berkeley, Calif. his latest book. I should have called it his "recent" book. In reading Beloff's latest. Parapsychology: Consciousness and Science Parapsychology and A Concise History, Ton says he was gready Beloff's Beliefs disturbed by Beloff's credulity with respect This is in response to several letters in the to psychic claims of the distant past. January I February 19% SI about my article In his Letter to the Editor in the Nevertheless, Ton calls Beloff "probably the on consciousness that appeared in the November/December 1995 issue, Cesar only truly sane voice in the entire field of September/October 1995 issue. Tort paints a very misleading picture of parapsychology. It is only in some cases of parapsychologists. He states, for example, historical 'evidence' of psi that my former An article of limited length on a complex that John Beloff is the only parapsycholo- mentor went astray." subject is very likely to have oversights. It

64 March/April 1996 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

is welcome information that some behav- Huston's interpretation of Qi is quite Details please. Thank you. iorists arc studying subjective experience right with respect to the modern Qi Gong as internal behavior. (Chi gong), yet not with Traditional Paul Nickel Dan Kritchevsky points are well Chinese Medicine (TCM). The core con­ Resource Development argued but not quite on target. Thought is cepts of TCM are the Five Elements (Five Michigan State University a structure, and simulation of riiought Xing) and the Yin-Yang Duality. While in E. Lansing, Mich. 48824-1222 would be no different from duplication of the TCM system Yin and Yang are empha­ email [email protected] mought, but it is difficult to imagine the sized as two distinct components of Qi, in http://rdservl .rd.msu.edu/rd/ sensation of pain or blueness as pure struc­ the modern Qi Gong system it is the uni­ faculty/nickel/dcfaulthtm ture. The trajectory of an electric panicle tary nature of Qi that is stressed. In fact, in a magnetic field can be duplicated in a many contemporary theorists of Qi Gong computer display, but magnetic fields can do not adopt the Yin-Yang concept at all. Visual Blue Shirt Fallacy? only be simulated in the display. Any I believe that Huston's argument would be actual magnetic fields in the computer are improved if such distinctions were to be I write in belated response to Martin in die electronic activity of its mechanism. made. Gardner's request for more literary science I understand David Richwerger's Huston is quite correct in alluding to blunders (SI, Notes of a Fringe-Watcher, impatience with the concept of conscious­ the Cultural Revolution in his discussion January/February 1995). I am surprised ness. Yet, on the face of it, it is remarkable of acupuncture anesthesia. A TCM doctor that he has omitted what must be the to hold that the existence of consciousness who was a student at the time has told me most common scientific blunder in sci­ needs to be proven. Its presence in surgical that patients who felt pain were instructed ence fiction writing—what might be patients is the business of anesthesiolo­ to cry out "long live Chairman Mao," and termed the "visual red/blue shift fallacy." gists. Epileptic automatism is a vivid case did. However, acupuncture anesthesia This says that at velocities that are a of complex behavior without conscious­ effect does exist, and it is explained as the substantial fraction of the speed of light, ness. The difference between conscious­ result of hypnotic and physical effects. stars in the forward direction appear blue ness and psi, or the ether, is that the for­ to the moving observer, and stars in the mer is massively present to almost every­ Wu Xianghong backward direction appear red. one everyday. Like magnetism, conscious­ Department of Philosophy An example is in Greg Bear's Anvil of ness is neither a substance nor a total Renmin University of China Stars (page 12): abstraction. Perhaps we are again having Beijing, China trouble with the very loose usage of the At the ship's present speed ... die word. We certainly do not yet have any true stars were gnarled and twisted, correlate in brain function to the inte­ rotated and compressed into a scin­ grated field of consciousness, but I believe Critical Opportunity tillating ring that flexed around the that the new tools for observing activity in ship like a loose bracelet, blue on the living brain may lead to discoveries How can we make people think? 1 invite one side—the direction in which they flew—and red on the other. that can enlighten this very difficult prob­ vivid examples for a book, Teach Students lem. To Think Critically, about successful teach­ ers. Critical thinking examples may In fact, the blue (or red) shift is in the include skeptical, applied science process spectrographic lines. As one set of wave­ Huntley Ingalls and logic rules, and tests that jump-start lengths falls off the visual spectrum, Boulder, Colo. students to choose to question, reflect, another set moves in at the other end. The indulge curiosity, research, and test mod­ visual spectrum remains full, and the color els, hypotheses, and assumptions . . . even will remain relatively unchanged. prove their model not right, but wrong. Chi, China, and Culture I pick on Bear only because I was read­ Maverick, flamboyant, reckless, zany, ing him at the time of the SI article, and With great interest I have read "China, and eccentric examples are the most wel­ thus could find the reference. I admire and Chi, and Chicanery" by Peter Huston come, and may include any field or sub­ enjoy his work enormously. (September/October 1995). While his ject; but even conventional examples arc conclusions are generally tenable, in my most welcome for us of conventional per­ Alistair Blennerhassett view there are some misunderstandings in suasion. Draw on your teaching examples, Invercargill, New Zealand his argument. your memory banks, or your unlimited Like other cultures, Chinese traditional imagination for ways you might teach culture is not so logically established that learners to observe, examine, and test The letters column is a forum for views on it is based on a bunch of well-defined con­ problems, solutions, and their world. I matters raised in previous issues. Letters cepts and principles. Thus the term Chi particularly want examples that might should be no more than 250 words. Due to (Qi) has various meanings depending on convince students to change their minds the volume of letters, not all can be published. the context. Is die "realism" of a scholastist about something they always thought was They should be typed double-spaced. Address: die same as the "realism" of a novelist in true. All suggestions and contributors will Letters to the Editor, SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, the Western culture? be acknowledged upon publication. 944 Deer Dr. NE. Albuquerque, NM 87122.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER March/April 1996 65 International Network of Skeptical Organizations

ARGENTINA. CAIRP, Director, Ladislao Enrique ITALY. CICAP (Comitate Italiano per il Controllo ILLINOIS. Midwest Committee for Rational Marquez, Jose Marti. 35 dep C, 1406 Buenos Aires. dalle Affermazioni sul Paranormale), Largo Inquiry, Danielle Kafka, President P.O. Box 2792, AUSTRALIA. National: Australian Skeptics. P.O. Box Europa, 2-35137 Padova. Sciema & Paranormale, Des Plaines, IL 60017-2792. Rational A2324. Sydney South, NSW 2000, (E-mail: skep- Massimo Polidoro, Editor, P.O. Box 60, 27058 Examination Assoc, of Lincoln Land (REALL), ticsOspot.- tt.sw.au.oz). Regional: Australian Voghera (PV). David Bloomberg. Chairman, P.O. Box 20302, Capital Territory. P.O. Box 555, Civic Square. JAPAN, lapan Skeptics, Jun Jugaku. Chairperson, Springfield IL 62708 (217-522-7554). 2608. Newcastle Skeptics. Chairperson, Colin Business Center for Academic Societies Japan, 16- INDIANA. Indiana Skeptics. Robert Craig, Keay, Physics Dept.. Newcastle University, NSW 9 Honkomagome 5-chome, Bunkyo-Ku, Tokyo Chairperson, S401 Hedgerow Drive, Indianapolis, 2308. Queensland, P.O. Box 2180, Brisbane, 4001. 113. IN 46226. South Australia. P.O. Box 91. Magill. S072. MEXICO. Mexican Association for Skeptical KENTUCKY. Kentucky Assn. of Science Educators Victoria. P.O. Box 15SSP. Melbourne. 3001. Research (SOMIE). Mario Mendez Acosta. and Skeptics (KASES). Chairman, Prof. Robert A. Western Australia. P.O. Box 899, Morley WA Chairman, Apartado Postal 19-546, Mexico 03900. Baker, 3495 Castleton Way North, Lexington, KY 6062. D.F. 40502. BELGIUM. Committee Para. J. Dommanget. NETHERLANDS. Stlchting Skepsis. Rob Nanninga. LOUISIANA. Baton Rouge Proponents of Rational Chairman. Observatoire Royal de 8elgique, Secretary, Westerkade 20. 9718 AS Groningen. Inquiry and Scientific Methods (BR-PRISM). Avenue Circulate 3. B-1180 Brussels. SKEPP. W. NEW ZEALAND. New Zealand Skeptics. vlcki Hyde, Dick Schroth, Director, 425 Carriage Way, Baton Betz. Secretary. Laarbeeklaan 103, B1090 Brussels Chairperson, South Pacific Publications, Box Rouge. LA 70808-4828 (504-766-4747). (FAX: 32-2-4774301). 19-760, Christchurch 5. N.Z.. Fax: 64 3 384-5138. MASSACHUSETTS. Skeptical Inquirers of New BRAZIL. Opcao Racional, Luis Gutman. Rua Santa NORWAY. Skepsis, Terje Emberland, Contact. P. B. England. Contact Laurence Moss, Ho & Moss. 68 Clara.431. Sloco 5. Apt. 803. Copacabana - Rio de 2943 Toyen 0608, Oslo 6. Harrison Ave.. 5th, Floor, Boston 02111. Janeiro 22041-010 (021-227-8694). RUSSIA. Contact Edward Gevorkian, Ulyanovskaya MICHIGAN. Great Lakes Skeptics, Carol Lynn, con­ CANADA. Alberta Skeptics. Heidi Lloyd-Price. 43. Kor 4. 109004, Moscow. tact 1264 Bedford Rd.. Grosse Pointe Park, Ml Secretary, P.O. Box S571. Station A. Calgary. SOUTH AFRICA. Assn. for the Rational 84230-1116. Alberta T2H 1X9. British Columbia Skeptics, Investigation of the Paranormal (ARIP), Marian MINNESOTA. Minnesota Skeptics. Robert W. Lee Moller. contact. 1188 Beaufort Road, Laserson, Secretary, 4 Wales St., Sandringham McCoy. 549 Turnpike Rd.. Golden Valley, MN Vancouver V7G 1R7. Manitoba Skeptics 2192. SOCRATES, Leon Retief, contact. 3 55416. St. Kloud ESP Teaching Investigation Contact John Toews, President, Box 92. St. Vital, Hoheizen Crescent. Hoheizen. Bellville 7530. Committee (SKEPTIC), Jerry Mertens, Winnipeg. Man. R2M 4A5. Ontario Skeptics. SPAIN. AKernativa Racional a las Pseudosciencias Coordinator, Psychology Dept. St. Cloud State Henry Gordon. Chairman, 343 Clark Ave West. (ARP). Carlos Telleria, Executive Director, Apdto. Univ.. St. Cloud, MN 56301. Suite 1009. Thornhill Ontario UJ 7KS. Sceptiques 1516, 50080 Zaragoza. El Investigador MISSOURI. Kansas City Committee for Skeptical du Quebec Jean Ouellette. C.P. 202. Succ. Esceptlco. Contact Felix Ares De Bias, Inquiry, Verle Muhrer. Chairman. 2658 East 7th. Beaubien, Montreal H2G 3C9. Gamez/Ares/Martinez. P. O . Box 904, 20080 Kansas City. MO 64124. Gateway Skeptics, CZECH REPUBLIC. Czech Club of Skeptics, Milos Donostia-San Sebastian. Chairperson, Steve Best, 6943 Amherst Ave., Chvojka. nim. Jirlho z Lobkovic 7. CS-130 00 SWEDEN. Vatanskap dc Folkbildning (Science and University City. MO 63130. Prague 3, The Czech Republic People's Education), Sven Ove Harmon, Secretary, NEW MEXICO. New Mexicans for Science S Reason. ESTONIA. Contact Indrek Rohtmets. Horisont. EE Box 185. 101 23 Stockholm. John Geohegan, Chairman, 450 Montclaire SE, 0102 Tallinn, Narva mnt. 5. TAIWAN. Tim Holmes, P.O. Box 195. Tanzu, Taiwan. Albuq., NM 87108; Dave Thomas, Vice President PO EUROPEAN COUNCIL OF SKEPTICAL ORGANIZA­ UNITED KINGDOM. SKEPTICAL INQUIMI Representative, Box 1017. Perarta NM. 87042. TIONS. Amardeo Sarma, Secretary, Postfach 1222, Michael J. Hutchinson, 10 Crescent View, NEW YORK. Inquiring Skeptics of Upper New D-64374 Rossdorf (FAX: *49 6154 81912). Loughton, Essex IG10 4PZ. The Skeptic maga­ York (ISUNY), Contact: Michael Sofka, 8 FINLAND. Skepsis. Ilpo V. Salmi. President. Secretary zine. Editors, Toby Howard and Steve Donnelly, Providence St.. Albany. NY 12203. (S18-437-17S0). and contact person: Anneli Aurejdrvi, Sireen'rtie P.O. Box 475. Manchester M60 2TH. (E-mail: New York Area Skeptics (NYASk). Alan Weiss, 10bA2, FIN-01390Vantaa, Finland. E-mail contact: tobyOcs.man.ac.uk). London Student Skeptics. contact person, 44 Parkview Drive, Millburn. NJ Sami Hirtunen, sjhiKunOcc.helsinki.fi. Contact: 8ill Harman, 21 Manville Rd.. London 07041, e-mail: nyaskOliii.com. Western New FRANCE. Card* Zttetique. Contact: Paul-Eric SW17 8JW. Wessex Skeptics. Robin Allen, Dept. York Skeptics, Tim Madigan, Chairman, 3965 Blanrue, 12 Rue Oavid Deitz. S7000 Metz. Comite of Physics, Southampton Univ., Highfield, Rensch Road.. Buffalo, NY 14228. Francals pour I'Etude das Phenomenes Southampton S09 5NH. OHM. South Shore Skeptics. Page Stephens. 6006 FV Parartormaux. Claude Benski, Secretary-General, Avenue. Cleveland, OH 44102 (216-631-5987). Merlin Gerin, RGE/A2 38050 Grenoble Cedex. United States Association for Rational Thinking (Cincinnati Comite da Mason Parasciences, Contact: Jean- ALABAMA. Alabama Skeptics, Emory Kimbrough, area). Joseph F. Gastright Contact 111 Wallace Ave.. Paul Krivine, 14, Rue de I'Ecole Polytechnique, 3550 Watermelon Road. Apt 28A, Northport. AL Covington. KY 41014 (606-581-7315). 75005 Rue Paris. 35476 (205-759-2624). OREGON. Oregonians for Rationality. Contact Bill GERMANY. Society for the Scientific ARIZONA. Tucson Skeptics Inc. James McGaha. Capron. PO Box 4739. Vancouver. WA 98662 (206- Investigation of Para-Science (GWUP). Chairman. 7049 E. Tangue Verde Rd., Ste. 370. 260-1896) Amardeo Sarma. Convenor. Postfach 1222. Tucson. AZ 85715. Phoenix Skeptics, Michael PENNSYLVANIA. Paranormal Investigating D-64374 Rossdorf (Phone: +49 6154 695022. FAX: Stackpole. Chairman, P.O. Box 60333. Phoenix, AZ Committee of Pittsburgh (PICP), Richard Busch, •49 6154 695021). 85082. Chairman, 8209 Thompson Run Rd., Pittsburgh, HONG KONG. Hong Kong Skeptics. Contact CALIFORNIA. Bay Area Skeptics, Wilma Russell. PA 15237 (412-366-4663). Philadelphia Rebecca Bradley, P.O. Box 1010. Shatin Central Secretary.17722 Buti Park Court Castro Valley, CA Association for Critical Thinking (PhACT), Post Office. Shatin. NT. 94546. East Bay Skeptics Society, Daniel William A. Wisdom. Secretary. 76 Limekiln Pike. HUNGARY. Hungarian Skeptics. Gyula Bencze. Sabsay. Pres.. P.O. Box 20989, Oakland. CA 94620 Glenside. PA 19038 (215) 884-3885. Termeszet Vilaga. P.O. Box 25, Budapest 8.1444. (510-420-0702). Sacramento Skeptics Society. TEXAS. Houston Association for Scientific (Fax 011-36-1-118-7506). Terry Sandbek. 3550 Watt Ave., Suite #3, Thinking (HAST), Darrell Kachllla, P.O. Box INDIA. Indian Skeptics, B. Premanand. Chairman, 10 Sacramento. CA 95821 (916-488-3772), E-mail: 541314, Houston, TX 77254. North Texas Chettipalayam Rd., Podanur 641-023 Coimbatore tsandbek.mother, com. Skeptics. Joe Voelkering. President P.O. Box Tamil nadu. Indian Rationalist Association. COLORADO. Rocky Mountain Skeptics, Bela 111794. Carrollton. TX 750111794. Contact. Sanal Edamaruku. 779. Pocket 5. Mayur Scheiber. President P.O. Box 7277, Boulder. CO WASHINGTON. The Society for Sensible Vihar 1. New Delhi 110 091. Maharashtra 80306 (303-444-5368). Explanations, P.O. Box 7121. Seattle. WA 98133- Superstition Eradication Committee, Dada D.C. Capital Area. National Capital Area Skeptics, 2121. Tad Cook. Sec/Treas. (E-mail: tadOltc.com). Chandane. Secy.. D/6, First Floor. Super Market c/o D.W. "Chip" Denman. 8006 Valley Street WISCONSIN. Contact person: Roxine McQuitty. Solapur 413001. Silver Spring. MD 20910. MATC-West 1200 S. 71st St.. West Allis. Wl 53214 IRELAND. Irish Skeptics. Peter O'Hara, Contact. St. FLORIDA. Tampa Bay Skeptics. Gary Posner, 1113 (414-456-5402. 414-873-4446. McQuittyOMusic. Joseph's Hospital, Limerick. Normandy Trace Rd.. Tampa. FL 33602 lib.MATCedu). ISRAEL. Israel Skeptics Society, Philip Marmaros, (813-221-3533). E-mail: garyposOaol.com. The organizations listed above have *m» s*nrlar to those of CSKOP Chairman. P.O. Box 8481. Jerusalem. (Fax: 972-2- GEORGIA. Georgia Skeptics, Becky Long. President but are independent and autonomous Representatives of these 611652, E-mail: charismaOnetvision.netir). 2277 Winding Woods Dr.. Tucker. GA 30084. organizations cannot speak on behalf of CSICOP THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLAIMS OF THE PARANORMAL

AJTHE CEN7EI (C» NQurr (ADJACENT10 IHE STATE UNIVERSITY Of NEW YOU AT tUEFAlOl • AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION Paul Kurtz, Chairman Barry Karr, Executive Director

SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL CONSULTANTS

George Agogino, Dept. of Anthropology, Philip A. lanna, assoc. professor of Chris Scott, statistician, London, England Eastern New Mexico University astronomy, Univ. of Virginia Stuart D. Scott. Jr., associate professor of Bill G. Aldridge. executive director. William Jarvis, professor of health pro­ anthropology, SUNY. Buffalo National Science Teachers Assoc. motion and public health, Loma Linda Erwin M. Segal, professor of psychology, University, School of Public Health Gary Bauslaugh. dean of technical and SUNY, Buffalo I. W. Kelly, professor of psychology, academic education and professor of Elie A. Shneour. biochemist, director, University of Saskatchewan chemistry, Malaspina College, Biosystems Research Institute. La Jolla. Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Richard H. Lange, M.D., Mohawk Valley California Richard E. Berendzen, astronomer, Physician Health Plan, Schenectady, Steven N. Shore, associate professor and Washington, D.C. N.Y. chair, Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, Martin Bridgstock. lecturer, School of Gerald A. Larue, professor of biblical his­ Indiana Univ. South Bend Science, Griffith Observatory, Brisbane, tory and archaeology, University of So. Australia California. Barry Singer, psychologist, Eugene, Oregon Richard Busch. magician, Pittsburgh, Pa. Bernard J. Leikind. staff scientist. GA Mark Slovak, astronomer, University of Shawn Carlson, physicist, San Diego, Calif. Technologies Inc., San Diego William M. London. Director of Public Charles J. Cazeau. geologist. Deary, Idaho Wisconsin-Madison Health at the American Council of Ronald J. Crowley, professor of physics, Gordon Stein, physiologist author; editor Science and Health California State University, Fullerton of the American Rationalist Thomas R. McDonough, lecturer in engi­ Waclaw Szybalski. professor. McArdle Roger B. Culver, professor of astronomy, neering, Caltech, and SETI Coordinator Colorado State Univ. Laboratory, University of Wisconsin- of the Planetary Society Felix Ares De Bias, professor of comput­ Madison James E. McGaha. Major, USAF; pilot er science. University of Basque, San Ernest H. Taves. psychoanalyst, Sebastian, Spain Joel A. Moskowitz. director of medical Cambridge, Massachusetts psychiatry, Calabasas Mental Health Michael R. Dennett writer, investigator. Sarah G. Thomason, professor of linguis­ Services, Los Angeles. Federal Way, Washington tics. University of Pittsburgh Robert B. Painter, professor of micro­ Sid Deutsch, Visiting Professor of electri­ Neil deGrasse Tyson, astrophysicist, biology. School of Medicine, University cal engineering. University of South Princeton University and the Hayden Florida, Tampa of California Planetarium John W. Patterson, professor of materials J. Dommanget astronomer, Royale science and engineering, Iowa State Observatory, Brussels, Belgium University Nahum J. Duker, assistant professor of CSICOP Steven Pinker, professor and director of pathology. Temple University the Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, Subcommittees Barbara Eisenstadt psychologist, educa­ MIT tor, clinician, East Greenbush, N.Y. Astrology Subcommittee: Chairman, James Pomerantz, Provost, and professor I. W. Kelly, Dept. of Educational John F. Fischer, forensic analyst, Orlando, of cognitive and linguistic sciences. Psychology, 28 Campus Drive. Fla. Brown Univ. Saskatoon. Sask., Canada. 57N-OX1 Frederic A. Friedel, philosopher. Gary P. Posner, M.D., Tampa, Fla. Electronic Communication Subcommittee: Hamburg, West Germany Daisie Radner, professor of philosophy, Chairman, Page Stephens, 6006 Fir Robert E. Funk, anthropologist. New SUNY. Buffalo York State Museum & Science Service Ave., Cleveland, OH 44102. E-Mail: Jim Michael Radner, professor of philosophy, Kutz aa387adeveland.Freenet.edu Eileen Gambrill. professor of social wel­ McMaster University. Hamilton, fare. University of California at Health Claims Subcommittee: Co-chair­ Ontario, Canada Berkeley men, William Jarvis, Professor of Robert H. Romer, professor of physics. Health Promotion and Education. Sylvio Garattini, director, Mario Negri Amherst College School of Public Health, Loma Linda Pharmacology Institute, Milan, Italy Milton A. Rothman. physicist. University. Loma Linda. CA 93350, and Laurie Godfrey, anthropologist. Philadelphia, Pa. Stephen Barrett. M.D.. P.O. Box 1747. University of Massachusetts Karl Sabbagh. journalist. Richmond, Allentown, PA 18105. Gerald Goldin. mathematician, Rutgers Surrey, England University, New Jersey Robert J. Samp, assistant professor of Parapsychology Subcommittee: Donald Goldsmith, astronomer; president education and medicine. University of Chairman. Ray Hyman, Psychology Interstellar Media Wisconsin-Madison Dept.. Univ. of Oregon. Eugene, OR Clyde F. Herreid. professor of biology, Steven D. Schafersman. geologist Houston 97402. SUNY, Buffalo Mia Scheiber,* system analyst Boulder, UFO Subcommittee: Chairman, Philip J. Terence M. Hines, professor of psychology. Colo. Klass. 404 -N- Street S.W., Pace University. Pleasantville. N.Y. I 'Member of CSICOP Executive Council Washington, D.C 20024. CENTER FOR INQUIRY The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal P.O. Box 703, Amherst, NY 14226 • (716) 636-1425

The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal encourages the critical investigation of paranormal and fringe-science claims from a responsible, scientific point of view and disseminates factual information about the results of such inquiries to the scientific community and the public. It also promotes science and scientific inquiry, critical thinking, science education, and the use of reason in examining important issues. To carry out these objectives the Committee:

• Maintains a network of people interested in critically examining paranormal, fringe-science, and other claims, and in contributing to consumer education • Prepares bibliographies of published materials that carefully examine such claims • Encourages research by objective and impartial inquiry in areas where it is needed • Convenes conferences and meetings • Publishes articles that examine claims of the paranormal • Does not reject claims on a priori grounds, antecedent to inquiry, but examines them objectively and carefully

The Committee is a nonprofit scientific and educational organization. The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is its official journal. Skeptical Inquirer

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