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State Fragility and International Security: the Rise of Salafi-Jihadi Groups in a World of Fragile States

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State Fragility and International Security: The Rise of Salafi-Jihadi Groups in a World of Fragile States By Said Yaqub Ibrahimi A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Affairs in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy In Political Science Carleton University Ottawa, Ontario ©2018, Said Yaqub Ibrahimi Abstract: Since the end of the Cold War, extremist Islamism has become a focal point of international security debate in academic and policy research. Much of the existing literature on Salafi-Jihadi Groups (SJGs), conventionally known as terrorist groups, examines the root causes of the emergence of these groups through the lens of three levels: individual, group, and international levels. Thus, individual extremists’ desire for jihad, Islamism as a group ideology, and the sole great power’s post-Cold War policies in the Middle East are considered as the three dominant root causes of the emergence of SJGs in the literature. If these three causal determinants are to hold, it begs the question of why SJGs do not emerge in every Muslim majority country where these elements persist. Why, for instance, did individual jihadis’ personal desire for transnational jihad, Islamist ideology, and the US post-Cold War policies produce SJGs in Afghanistan and the post-Saddam Hussein Iraq but not in Saudi Arabia and Qatar? What factor, then, is responsible for this contradictory outcome in countries which in terms of the presence of the root cause of SJGs are similar? Taking these questions into account, I consider the degree of state fragility countries to be responsible for this contradictory outcome. This dissertation examines state fragility as a condition, but not a direct cause, of the rise of SJGs. It engages with a three-decade-long debate on the relationship between state fragility and terrorism and examines the empirical findings through the lens of international relations, international security, and development theories. Keywords: Sovereign State; State Fragility; Salafi-Jihadi Groups; Terrorism; Islamism; Afghanistan; Iraq 1 Dedication: I dedicate this dissertation to the beauty of my motherland, Afghanistan, which I love eternally which has suffered from both state fragility and extremism in the hopes she rises more glorious than one can imagine. 2 Acknowledgement I had a great opportunity to write this dissertation under the supervision of Professor Elinor Sloan, a distinguished scholar, a great teacher, a professional mentor and a caring colleague. I also had the opportunity to work with Professor Brian Schmidt who familiarized me with the mystery of IR theory and Professor David Carment who guided me how to connect theory to data as my thesis committee members. I thank my committee for their support over the past five years. I would not have been able to write this dissertation without their guidance and support. I significantly benefited from the intellectual and friendly environment of the Department of Political Science at Carleton University. Many professors and graduate students in the Department contributed to the success of this project in different ways. I thank them all. This project was financially supported by my Department’s generous scholarship and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada’s doctoral fellowship which I greatly appreciate. I have been lucky to live in an intellectual environment of family and friends giving me the opportunity to discuss my early findings without concerns of formality. I deeply appreciate and will always remember their intellectual and inspirational support. I went to school in Afghanistan when the country was broken by war and completed my Bachelor in Law and Political Science when the country was recovering. Regardless of what situation the country was in, I was treated and taught with love and passion by teachers who regularly worked part time in construction and other hard labor jobs to support their families and worked in school for free for years, because they “had a dream.” My grit and believe in hardworking is deeply inspired by those spirited and brave teachers. I deeply respect and thank them and wish their dreams come true soon. Finally, I thank my wife, Noorin, for her believe on me and her sincere support. 3 Contents Chapter I o Introduction ……………………………………………………………….....6 o Conceptualizing Key Terms: The State, State Fragility and SJGs…………...14 o Salafi-Jihadi Groups …………………………………....................................23 o Analytical Framework ……………………………………………………….28 o Methodology ………………………………………………………………....38 o Organization of Chapters ………………………………………………….....43 Chapter II o State and State Fragility in Muslim Societies; Salafi-Jihadi Groups……46 o The Sovereign State and Its Extension in Muslim Societies …...……….…...46 o State Fragility in Muslim Countries………………………………………….55 o Salafi-Jihadi Group: Background .…………………………………………...58 o Development of SJGs……………….………………………………………..67 o Typology: PIGs vs. SJGs .………….………………………………………...71 o Typology of SJGs……………………………………………………………..73 Chapter III o Root Causes of al-Qaeda...……………………………………………….…78 o Individual Level: Personal Motivations………………………………………90 o Group Level: Salafi-Jihadism………………………………………………...99 o International Level: System Shift and Its Consequences.……………………102 Chapter IV o State Fragility in Afghanistan and the Rise of al-Qaeda…...……………114 o From State Formation to State Fragility……………………………………..116 o State-Building Policies: State Conservatism and Social Transformation........119 o Civil War and State Fragility………………………………………………...126 o State Fragility and the Emergence of al-Qaeda……………………………...128 o Poor Legitimacy………………….…………………………………………..133 o Poor Authority………………………………………………………………..142 o Lack of Capacity……………………………………………………………...149 4 Chapter V o Root Causes of IS ………………………………………………...........……158 o Post-Saddam Insurgency……………………………………………….……..162 o Zarqawi and the Doctrine of the Caliphate…………………………………...163 o From AQI to IS: the Formation of the Caliphate……………………………..168 o Individual Level………………………………………………………………175 o Group Level: Salafi-Jihadism……..………………………………………….181 o International Level…………………………………………….……………...189 Chapter VI o State Fragility in post-Saddam Iraq and the Rise of IS……………..……195 o State Formation and State Fragility…………………………………………..198 o The Monarchical Period (1921-1958)………………………………………...199 o The Republican Period (1958-1968)………………………………………….202 o The Baathist Period (1968-2003)……………………………………………..204 o Causes of State Fragility……………………………………………………...206 o Aspects of State Fragility……………………………………………………..209 o 1. Lack of Legitimacy: o 1.1. Lack of Political Participation………………………..……………….....213 o 1.2. Sectarian Politics…………….………………….………….……………222 o 1.3. External Intervention………………………..…………………………...228 o 2. Poor Authority…………………………………………………….……….235 o Security Gap and the Rise of IS……………………………………………...242 o 3. Lack of Capacity…………………………………………………………..250 Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………..……252 Bibliography………………………………………………………………………….259 5 I Since the end of the Cold War, extremist Islamism has become a focal point of international security debates in academic and policy research. Much of the security studies literature concerning the nature of Salafi-Jihadi Groups (SJGs), also known as terrorist groups, discusses the root causes of their emergence and aspects of their threat to international security in a specific context or different level of analysis.1 Putting this literature together, scholars have examined the causes of the phenomenon at three levels of analysis, namely, the individual, the group and the international/environmental levels.2 Thus, individual extremists’ desire for jihad,3 Islamism/Salafism as a group ideology,4 and the United States’ post-Cold War foreign and military policies in the Middle East5 are considered as the three dominant causes of the emergence of SJGs 1 Ami Pedahzur, ed. Root Causes of Suicide Terrorism: The Globalization of Martyrdom. (London and New York: Routledge 2006; Louise Richardson, ed., The Roots of Terrorism (New York and London: Routledge, 2006); Youssef M. Choueiri, Islamic Fundamentalism: The Story of Islamist Movements, 3rd Edition, (London: Continuum, 2010). 2 Assaf Moghadam, “The Roots of Suicide Terrorism: A Multi-Causal Approach,” in Root Causes of Suicide Terrorism: The Globalization of Martyrdom, ed. Ami Pedahzur (London and New York: Routledge 2006), 81-107; S. Yaqub Ibrahimi, “Theory of the Rise of al-Qaeda,” Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression, 10(2), 2018: 138-157; 3 Jerrold M. Post, The Mind of the Terrorist: The Psychology of Terrorism from the IRA to Al-Qaeda (New York: Palgrave MacMillan, 2007); Jerrold M. Post, “The Psychological Dynamics of Terrorism,” in The Roots of Terrorism, ed. Louise Richardosn (New York and London: Routledge, 2006); Jerold, M Post, “When Hatred is Bred in the Bone: the Sociocultural Underpinnings of Terrorist Psychology,” in The Making of a Terrorist: Recruiting, Training and Root Causes, edited by James J. F. Forest, vol. 2 (Westport, Connecticut, London: Praeger Security International, 2006); A. W. Kruglanski and S. Fishman, "The Psychology of Terrorism: 'Syndrome' Versus 'Tool' Perspectives," Terrorism and Political Violence 18/2 (2006):193–215; John Horgan, “Understanding Terrorist Motivation: A Socio- Psychological Perspective,” in Mapping Terrorism Research: State of the Art, gaps and future direction, ed. Magnus Ranstorp (London and New York: Routledge, 2007). 4 Bassam Tibi, Islamism
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