Independent Task Force Report No. 76 The Work Ahead Machines, Skills, and U.S. Leadership in the Twenty-First Century John Engler and Penny Pritzker, Chairs Edward Alden, Project Director Laura Taylor-Kale, Deputy Project Director Independent Task Force Report No. 76 The Work Ahead Machines, Skills, and U.S. Leadership in the Twenty-First Century John Engler and Penny Pritzker, Chairs Edward Alden, Project Director Laura Taylor-Kale, Deputy Project Director The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members, government officials, business executives, journalists, educators and students, civic and religious leaders, and other interested citizens in order to help them better understand the world and the foreign policy choices facing the United States and other countries. Founded in 1921, CFR carries out its mission by maintaining a diverse membership, with special programs to promote interest and develop expertise in the next generation of foreign policy leaders; convening meetings at its headquarters in New York and in Washington, DC, and other cities where senior government officials, members of Congress, global leaders, and prominent thinkers come together with Council members to discuss and debate major international issues; supporting a Studies Program that fosters independent research, enabling CFR scholars to produce articles, reports, and books and hold roundtables that analyze foreign policy issues and make concrete policy recommendations; publishing Foreign Affairs, the preeminent journal on international affairs and U.S. foreign policy; sponsoring Independent Task Forces that produce reports with both findings and policy prescriptions on the most important foreign policy topics; and providing up-to- date information and analysis about world events and American foreign policy on its website, CFR.org. The Council on Foreign Relations takes no institutional positions on policy issues and has no affiliation with the U.S. government. All views expressed in its publications and on its website are the sole responsibility of the author or authors. The Council on Foreign Relations sponsors Independent Task Forces to assess issues of current and critical importance to U.S. foreign policy and provide policymakers with concrete judgments and recommendations. Diverse in backgrounds and perspectives, Task Force members aim to reach a meaningful consensus on policy through private deliberations. Once launched, Task Forces are independent of CFR and solely responsible for the content of their reports. Task Force members are asked to join a consensus signifying that they endorse “the general policy thrust and judgments reached by the group, though not necessarily every finding and recommendation.” Each Task Force member also has the option of putting forward an additional or a dissenting view. Members’ affiliations are listed for identification purposes only and do not imply institutional endorsement. Task Force observers participate in discussions, but are not asked to join the consensus. For further information about CFR or this Task Force, please write to the Council on Foreign Relations, 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065, or call the Communications office at 212.434.9888. Visit our website, CFR.org. Copyright © 2018 by the Council on Foreign Relations®, Inc. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, in any form beyond the reproduction permitted by Sections 107 and 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law Act (17 U.S.C. Sections 107 and 108) and excerpts by reviewers for the public press, without express written permission from the Council on Foreign Relations. This report is printed on paper that is FSC® Chain-of-Custody Certified by a printer who is certified by BM TRADA North America Inc. TASK FORCE MEMBERS Task Force members are asked to join a consensus signifying that they endorse “the general policy thrust and judgments reached by the group, though not necessarily every finding and recommendation.” They participate in the Task Force in their individual, not their institu- tional, capacities. Chike Aguh* Jack Markell EveryoneOn Jamie P. Merisotis Edward Alden Lumina Foundation Council on Foreign Relations Rodrick T. Miller* Eric R. Biel* Ascendant Global Fair Labor Association Eduardo J. Padrón Allen Blue Miami Dade College LinkedIn Penny Pritzker John Engler PSP Partners Michigan State University Cecilia E. Rouse* Diana Farrell Princeton University’s JPMorgan Chase Institute Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs Kian Gohar* XPRIZE Foundation Lee J. Styslinger III Altec Inc. Gordon Hanson University of California, Hemant Taneja San Diego’s School General Catalyst Partners of Global Policy and Strategy Laura Taylor-Kale Robert M. Kimmitt Council on Foreign Relations WilmerHale Susan Lund McKinsey Global Institute *The individual has endorsed the report and signed an additional or dissenting view. iii CONTENTS vi Foreword ix Acknowledgments 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 INTRODUCTION 11 FINDINGS 11 Technology and Work 16 Innovation and Competitiveness 21 Growth and Income 25 Education, Training, and the Labor Market 39 Transition Assistance 43 Barriers to Employment 48 Support for Work in the New Economy 53 Next Steps: Building the Foundation for a Stronger United States 54 RECOMMENDATIONS 57 Create Better Work Opportunities in the Face of Technological Change 63 Maintain U.S. Technological Leadership 68 Boost Growth and Income 76 Strengthen the Link Between Education and Work 88 Overhaul Transition Assistance for Workers 92 Remove Barriers to Opportunity 95 Overhaul Support for Work 99 Next Steps: Launch a National Dialogue on the Workforce of the Future 103 Additional and Dissenting Views 109 Endnotes 132 Acronyms 134 Task Force Members 145 Task Force Observers 149 Contributing CFR Staff v FOREWORD The nature of work is undergoing a fundamental shift, one largely brought about by new technologies including but not limited to artificial intelligence, robotics, and autonomous vehicles. In the pro- cess, jobs will be both eliminated and created. For the United States, this is something of a mixed blessing. With the world’s most innovative economy, the country is well positioned to exploit (in the best sense) the promise of new technologies and their applications. At the same time, it is painfully clear that American society is ill prepared for this technological transformation because educational opportunity and attainment vary widely and work is the basis for much of a citizen’s income, benefits, and, in many cases, self-esteem. The report of this Independent Task Force rightly focuses on the need to rebuild the links among work, opportunity, and economic secu- rity for Americans. It puts forward a number of policy prescriptions for government, business, educators, and nongovernmental institutions. Americans will need to reimagine their careers; the average worker will know over a dozen separate jobs during his or her lifetime. Citizens will also need to rethink education, jettisoning the notion of education as something largely completed before they enter the work- force. Instead, lifelong learning and periodic retraining will become the new normal. And Americans, together with government at every level, will need to restructure the relationship between jobs and benefits. With much of actual and projected job growth in part-time, contingent, or gig employment, it no longer makes sense to tie employment benefits such as retirement and sick leave to particular jobs. Rather, portable systems of employment benefits should be introduced that follow the individual from job to job. vi Foreword I want to say something about why the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) has undertaken this project. This is not the first time a Task Force has tackled a set of concerns outside what is traditionally thought of as national security. In recent years, we have focused on such issues as noncommunicable diseases, K-12 education, and immigration reform and what each of them meant for national security. What is clear is that failure to meet the challenges posed by new technologies will likewise affect U.S. national security, in this case by increasing political pressures for American retrenchment, the consequences of which would be a more unstable and less prosperous world. In addi- tion, the country will have neither the resources nor the political bandwidth to play a large global role if society is in turmoil. In such a situation, populism would be sure to grow, as would opposition to both immigration and trade despite their record of contributing to the country’s prosperity. One important recommendation of the Task Force is to create a National Commission on the U.S. Workforce to carry out research, share best practices, and conduct public outreach on workforce chal- lenges. Notwithstanding this suggestion, the challenges associated with new technologies are in no way limited to Americans. Technology will challenge the unity and stability of countries everywhere, developed and developing alike. There thus needs to be an international compo- nent to the response to new technologies. The future of work should become an enduring part of the Group of Twenty agenda, with a mech- anism established that enables best practices to be shared. I would like to thank the Task Force chairs, John Engler and Penny Pritzker, for their significant contribution