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Home , Bob Rae, Jean Charest, Mario Dumont, Maurice Duplessis, Peter MacKay, Stephen Lewis

THE RIPPLE EFFECT FROM LITIC ’S REALIGNMENT O S P ELECTION A

Robin V. Sears C S T É At both the federal and provincial levels, Quebec voters have long been held U I T captive by the federalist and sovereignist camps. In decades of polarized elections, AL many Quebecers found themselves without a political home, until established a Conservative beachhead in the 2006 federal election. Then on March 26 came the Mario Dumont earthquake, whose epicentre in the region sent aftershocks through the province. Homeless or unhappy second- choice voters, long held hostage by the polarization between the Liberals and the PQ provincially and the Liberals and the Bloc federally, now have a place to go. The ripple effect from Quebec’s realignment election will inevitably be felt on the other side of the River.

Aux niveaux fédéral et provincial, les électeurs du Québec ont longtemps été captifs des camps fédéraliste et souverainiste. De nombreux Québécois se sentaient dépourvus d’appartenance politique après quelques décennies de scrutins polarisés, puis Stephen Harper a établi une tête de pont conservatrice aux élections fédérales de 2006. Des élections suivies le 26 mars dernier par le séisme Mario Dumont, dont l’épicentre dans la région de Québec a été ressenti dans toute la province. Trop longtemps tenus en otage entre libéraux et péquistes ou bloquistes, les électeurs « sans-abri » ont trouvé à se loger. L’effet d’entraînement de ce scrutin de réalignement se répercutera inévitablement au-delà de l’.

“ ou see? Elections don’t matter! Look at Harper, Government is too big and too complex to indulge the pol- aping the Liberals after only a year in power!” That’s icy peculiarities of “ideological parties.” Therefore, as Harper Y the plaint of the blogosphere. is a more successful PM than we predicted, he must be more It’s almost a cliché among young Conservative Party sup- centrist than he claimed. porters — especially those with Reform genes — to bemoan the New Democrats are fond of claiming that Canadian vot- Harper government’s apparent tack to the centre of Canadian ers’ choices are between Tweedledum and Tweedledee, if they politics. They, along with a bevy of shallow editorialists across don’t choose their purer social democratic menu. It has only the country, complain that Stephen Harper is nothing but rarely been true, and today the policy gap between Liberals another vote-buying politician with a blue tie, replacing our and Conservatives is as wide as it has been in two generations. more conventional red variety. They could not be more wrong. Elections do matter, and some transform their voters’ One of the media’s favourite political nostrums is that lives for a generation. The 2007 Quebec election may be one the only successful political parties are those that govern of those transformational changes of power. from the centre. It is the received media wisdom in the Since René Lévesque began his brilliantly plotted split developed world that so-called conviction politicians are in the in the late 1960s, Quebec voters always trumped by those expert at assembling centrist coali- had been offered a policy choice unique in Canadian poli- tions. Never mind that , , tics. They had the status quo, a mildly left-of-centre Liberal , George Bush the Younger and John Howard government, or a party committed to creating two new are hard proof that it ain’t necessarily so. countries built on the ashes of the old — even if that revo- Their anti-democratic corollary is that governmental lutionary goal was usually fudged. change doesn’t matter because voters will only get more of This year, on the 300th anniversary of their union with the same, with a variation only in the level of corruption. England, Scottish voters endorsed the nationalist message of

POLICY OPTIONS 11 MAY 2007 Robin V. Sears

the Scottish Nationalists with more The respected pollster Nik Nanos, New Democrats are serious about chal- votes and seats than ever before. As of SES Research, offered some proof of lenging the Liberals for national credi- with the voters who delivered the PQ the hunger of Quebec voters to escape bility, their response to this new their first victory, however, it is far the separatist/federalist Manichean opportunity in Quebec will be proof. from clear that Scots were really nightmare in a study only three weeks Layton’s recruitment of a star candi- endorsing the creation of a Republic of after the election. He reported that the date last month, the former Quebec . The outcome is already trans- federal political battlefield in Quebec Liberal environment minister Tom forming British politics as the national would be transformed by the decline Mulcair, is an interesting acquisition parties scramble to deal with this new of the Bloc, following the rout of the for the NDP. reality, just as their Canadian peers did PQ. His research showed that Stephen In communities where democracy is new, political parties Since René Lévesque began his brilliantly plotted split in the often start off built on reli- Quebec Liberal Party in the late 1960s, Quebec voters had gious, regional or language been offered a policy choice unique in Canadian politics. They loyalties. In established democracies, however, vot- had the status quo, a mildly left-of-centre Liberal government, ers support parties that suc- or a party committed to creating two new countries built on cessfully appeal to their the ashes of the old — even if that revolutionary goal was economic self-interest and usually fudged. their values. The Parti Québécois attempted to on the morning after November 15, Harper and, surprisingly, straddle that sectarian/ideological 1976. If voters had provided that clear would be key beneficiaries. Departing divide with reasonable success for a a “republican mandate” to the Scottish Bloc voters would split along ideologi- generation. It all came unstuck March National Party, it would have been the cal lines, with small-town and conser- 26, when the seeds for a transforma- most transformational election in cen- vative bleu nationalists voting tion of Quebec and, conceivably, turies of British democracy. Conservative. The strong social demo- Canadian politics were sown. cratic tendency always central to the The rise of Mario Dumont and he rise of the Parti Québécois, and activist core of both wings of the sov- the ADQ has divided commentators T subsequently the formation of its ereignist movement showed a willing- in Quebec and the rest of as unnatural offspring the Bloc, twisted the ness to vote NDP. to its meaning. The difference is over choice of Quebec voters away from the the ADQ’s definition as a basically norms of most developed democracies. hile Harper’s organizational federalist, socially conservative, pop- In a pattern more common to , W efforts to scoop up unhappy ulist party of the Ralliement Malaysia and the Balkans, they were Bloc voters began six months before Créditiste/ school, or limited to political choices based on the last election and have accelerated as a clever new Quebec First party community and clan, rather than on since, the NDP continues to play at the with a thinly disguised sovereignist values or policy goals. Systems based on margins in the province. Barring the agenda. Dumont’s slippery rhetorical these narrow political choices are not brief period of commitment at the end skill has provided plenty of ammuni- only necessarily tense and socially frag- of the Broadbent era, when the party tion for each. His roots in the last ile, depending as they do on keeping did devote money and leadership constitutional wars, his association communal differences alive, but they time, New Democrats have consistent- with the quixotic view of federalism also disenfranchise many voters. ly written off Quebec. Party pragma- championed by his mentor, Jean If you are a Quebec voter with con- tists argued that with scarce resources, Allaire, and his role in the 1995 refer- servative social values and a commit- no real labour allies and a strong leftist endum campaign are the touchstones ment to remaining Canadian, you have appeal from the Bloc and PQ, any for those who see Dumont as a real had no one to vote for in a quarter- effort there was hopeless. hidden-agenda politician. century, since the demise of the Union Today the party has its first gen- On the morning after the election, Nationale. If you are a Quebec social uinely bilingual leader — born in he rejected a federalist embrace: “I democrat not interested in sovereign- Quebec — more money than ever in its hope that is not how they perceive me. ty, you were similarly homeless. history, and a dramatically weakened That would be a mistake.” Abstention or unhappy second-choice labour and sovereignist opposition. voting was the reality faced by a large The old excuses no longer apply, espe- n the infamous 1991 Allaire report to slice of the electorate. This election cially as Nanos’s research also reveals I the Quebec Liberals on a proposed allowed them to escape that trap for that the Liberals are far from redeemed new relationship with Ottawa, said to the first time in a generation. in the eyes of these drifting voters. If have been written in part by the then

12 OPTIONS POLITIQUES MAI 2007 The ripple effect from Quebec’s realignment election

21-year-old Dumont, Ottawa would Accord. Dumont was just a kid out of contradictions in his very thin “pro- have shared jurisdiction on foreign pol- school, and Canada’s tolerance for con- gram for government.” icy, but not defence: an interesting divi- stitutional peccadilloes was consider- As a good student of Quebec his- sion to have attempted to apply to ably greater then than now. tory, it seems likely that Dumont will Afghanistan policy today. Also shared Today his careful social populism, take a leaf from the three masters of would have been the post office, fish- the fey autonomist claim, his flirta- 20th-century politics in the province: eries, and broadcast and telecom policy. tion with those unhappy about an , How would one define a Quebec fish, increasingly non-white Quebec, a and René Lévesque. It was that wily one wonders? Conservatives unhappy conservative fiscal posture and his small-town conservative of an earlier about a judicially activist Supreme shock jock one-liners have served to generation who successfully launched Court might have been happy with make any clear political pigeonholing Quebec’s endless “salami strategy” Allaire’s proposed replacement of it by a difficult. The PQ tried to label him a with Ottawa in the 1950s. Duplessis is “community tribunal.” Or perhaps not, closet racist, but that failed to stick. not often acknowledged in English- since no one knew just what it was The Liberals tried to nail him as a Canadian political history as the intended to be or do. But that was more crypto-separatist whose policy ideas genius behind the “threaten, retreat, than 15 years ago, in the bitter after- didn’t scan, but he dodged those negotiate” bargaining strategy that math of the death of the Meech Lake blows as well, despite large holes and has been Quebec’s pas de deux with

The Gazette, “As a good student of Quebec history,“ writes Robin Sears, “it seems likely that Mario Dumont will take a leaf from the three masters of 20th century politics in the province: Maurice Duplessis, Robert Bourassa and René Lévesque.“

POLICY OPTIONS 13 MAY 2007 Robin V. Sears

Ottawa ever since. He got separate ability to force a major strategic change Davis’s admittedly timid response to income and pension rights for the on his hapless colleagues, or quit. the pressure. The “minority manage- province, and regularly made life hell If he is quickly outmanoeuvred by ment” negotiation process was infor- for federal Liberal ministers and the Dumont and Charest, as they try to mal and often stuttered when Ottawa bureaucrats. find a way to make a minority govern- partisanship or frayed tempers created Duplessis was a master at expand- ment work, Boisclair’s colleagues may impossible frictions. Each leader ing Quebec’s role. It’s hard to imagine not give him the chance to drag the respected the other, however, and each even a hardline separatist premier aging Parti Québécois into a new cen- caucus, if grudgingly, understood the today with as much chutzpah as le tury. After all, it is up to the Premier benefits of the exercise in shared power. Chef. Imagine a provincial premier and the Leader of the Opposition to seizing the national assets of another make this new National Assembly he Peterson/Rae experience was an sovereign state, refusing the federal work. If they follow the path blazed by T example of the strategic rather government’s order to return them, , , David than the tactical approach to minority then attempting to hand them to a Peterson and in , management. A detailed program of third country and getting away with it! Quebec could have the fascinating legislative commitments was negotiat- That was Duplessis’s anti- ed between representatives of Communist coup, absconding René Lévesque and Robert Bourassa the leaders, signed, announced with Poland’s gold reserves and publicly and then used as a road national treasures stored for loved to twist the tail of Pierre map for governing over the fol- wartime safekeeping in a Trudeau and his succession of lowing two years. Partisan ten- Quebec monastery. He attempt- enraged Quebec ministers. Each sions, third-party sniping by ed to send them to Juan Perón premier was successful in extracting the humiliated Conservative in Argentina. caucus and occasional ego René Lévesque and Robert money, jurisdiction and political storms made delivery of the so- Bourassa loved to twist the tail of space from Ottawa in a series of called Accord challenging. Pierre Trudeau and his succes- predictable showdowns. It took an Voters were clearly im- sion of enraged Quebec minis- equally tough and supple Quebec pressed by the performance of ters. Each premier was successful the leaders, the process and the in extracting money, jurisdiction political operator to develop the product, giving Peterson a man- and political space from Ottawa only successful modus vivendi date in 1987 and passing it to in a series of predictable show- between Ottawa and Quebec City in Rae three years later. For Quebec downs. It took an equally tough a generation: . The today, the tactical model is and supple Quebec political probably all that is possible. If operator to develop the only Mulroney/Bourassa entente is the Charest and Dumont were to successful modus vivendi between clear role model for Stephen Harper decide to attempt a major Ottawa and Quebec City in a today, except that this reform agenda, they would need generation: Brian Mulroney. The transformational election has the security of an Accord-style Mulroney/Bourassa entente is agreement. the clear role model for Stephen considerably complicated his choice Simply behaving like Harper today, except that this of dance partners. Stéphane Dion and Stephen transformational election has Harper today, indulging in the considerably complicated his choice of experience of the creativity of a func- jabbing and poking of tit-for-tat poli- dance partners. tional minority government. tics, guarantees a premature Quebec From 1975 to 1981, in two succes- election with victory very much up for uebec voters expect that their sive minorities, Davis and Lewis deliv- grabs. Minority governments are typi- Q nuanced political choice will deliv- ered a program of social and economic cally remembered for three things: er a range of new possibilities. They legislation that underlies many of the what they delivered, who was blamed chose a minority government. This province’s economic strengths to this for their premature end and who won requires all three leaders now to climb a day. For example, one can trace the pol- the runoff. In breaking with their steep political learning curve, and quick- icy lineage of the McGuinty govern- “back the winner” tradition of voting ly. Charest must learn how to share ment’s current commitment to behaviour, Quebec voters sent a clear power without appearing to lose it. controlling land use and development message to their political elite: none of Dumont must learn when to stop danc- in southern Ontario to the campaign you deserves a majority and we want ing and deal. And André Boisclair must Stephen Lewis fought over the acceler- you to make this minority harness decide whether he has the will and the ating loss of farmland, in the face of work. Dumont will suffer if he is seen

14 OPTIONS POLITIQUES MAI 2007 The ripple effect from Quebec’s realignment election to make a premature and gratuitous promises of future happiness and government leader in a new and shaky grab for power by bringing the House reward, the weakest player needs to be minority is to pretend that the opposi- down. His pain would be exceeded by especially adept not to end up on the tion can be dismissed with the casual the punishment Charest would earn if floor in the morning. Before Boisclair hauteur of the good old days. That was he attempted to govern as if he had a or his party adversaries decide to the mistake ’s team made, and majority and was then defeated. launch an internal cleansing, with the it is one that the traditional arrogance turmoil and wounds that would of Quebec Liberals may yet tempt them anadian voters have returned inevitably inflict, they might reflect on into. While no party wants a rerun C eight minority federal govern- their timing, and the risks of an early election anytime soon, mistakes hap- ments in the last 50 years, more than in runoff election. pen when bruised egos and incompe- most advanced parliamentary democra- In 1958 the CCF was almost wiped tent House management collide. cies. We are increasingly comfortable out by a premature election and the Each of the two minority models with minorities and their ability to Diefenbaker landslide. The 1974 runoff to choose from — week-by-week tacti- deliver competent government policy. election cut the David Lewis New cal manoeuvring, or a longer-term Our politicians have learned not to play Democrats in half. Stephen Lewis and agreement — has obvious downsides. with defeat daily. Even the media have Bob Rae were both sandbagged in their The tactical approach preserves the become appropriately skeptical about post-minority elections, a less humili- greatest political space for the govern- every political Chicken Little’s claim on ating if still enraging outcome after sig- ment but requires very adroit intelli- the threshold of that week’s caucus nificant legislative achievements. The gence gathering and opposition-ego meeting that, this time, “the sky really third party can survive climbing off the management, led by a seasoned and is falling!” The complex and semi-pub- tiger as did in 1980 and respected House leader. lic negotiations between all the leaders Jack Layton repeated last year, but this that kept the Martin government alive, requires incredible good luck as well as he strategic approach, even if in contrast to the Trudeau/Lewis mega- skilled political judgment. T informal and private, provides phone negotiating style in their minor- If the stars align, and your oppo- time and protection from defeat, gives ity marriage of 1972-74, is proof of how nents behave foolishly, you may even even the ham-fisted room for mistakes far we have travelled. repeat Bob Rae’s Ontario victory in and recovery, but requires trusted and A minority government that is 1990. It was clear with hindsight that trusting players, a believable set of leg- the result of a near-death experience the leadership he showed in the coali- islative compromises and a willingness for a party grown fat and careless tion of 1985-87, the Peterson/Rae to discipline any caucus members who after too long in power has one tempting dynamic: an Alternatively, Charest could be Joe Clark. The path to certain heir apparent seeking the defeat for a government leader in a new and shaky minority is issue, and the political moment, to give the old to pretend that the opposition can be dismissed with the guard one final push into casual hauteur of the good old days. That was the mistake Joe oblivion. A minority that Clark’s team made, and it is one that the traditional arrogance is the product of a new- of Quebec Liberals may yet tempt them into. While no party comer scraping across the finish line, with an angry wants a rerun election anytime soon, mistakes happen when and cheated governing bruised egos and incompetent House management collide. party ill reconciled to its defeat, offers a different temptation. Accord government, gave voters confi- get offside. Seasoned, confident leader- The old guard struggles daily to find dence to vote for him three years later ship with clear agendas and a demon- a way back. Indulging a revanchiste when ’s Liberal govern- strated ability to crack the whip political appetite prematurely would ment imploded. It is not impossible to internally are not credentials many be a disaster for any of the parties in imagine a similar Quebec scenario: would choose to describe any of these Quebec today. Mario Dumont is seen to have behaved three politicians. The most dangerous position in responsibly and learned well the arts of Many Quebec observers have spec- this power struggle between angry and governing, but is cheated of victory in a ulated that the beau risque opportunity humiliated competitors is to be the rerun by the vagaries of a three-way for Charest and Dumont is to attempt third party. If a triangle is an unstable split. After an unhappy interregnum, he to deliver — piecemeal or as part of a structure in love, it is often deadly in sweeps to victory. bigger deal — elements of the Québec politics. While each of the big parties Alternatively, Charest could be Joe lucide reform agenda laid out by Lucien may flirt and offer the most passionate Clark. The path to certain defeat for a Bouchard and a group of Quebec

POLICY OPTIONS 15 MAY 2007 Robin V. Sears

luminaries. The combination of tax Oh, he may raise it from time to likely get clobbered, before rebuilding and spending cuts, a reduction in reg- time to rally his troops, and even give under a new leader? Unless he decides ulatory and state intervention in the a speech or two attempting to lay out that a life on board committees looks market and a big commitment to pro- a feasible approach to another round less painful and more rewarding, and ductivity and competitiveness, it is of job creation for constitutional falls on his own sword… argued, could transform the province and academics. He ran it up The toughest quandary is the one economically and politically. the flagpole very tentatively, in the faced by the PQ and its hapless leader. Quebec is long overdue for the glow of his election victory. Social movement or crusade-based kind of governmental housecleaning “If Ottawa were ready to open up the political parties universally arrive at the championed by Charest one election debate on spending power, the National crossroads Quebec’s aging sovereignists earlier, and hinted at by Mario Dumont Assembly should have an initiative to now face: should not the pursuit of electoral success trump Quebec is long overdue for the kind of governmental increasingly discredited housecleaning championed by Charest one election earlier, principle? and hinted at by Mario Dumont in this one, but it seems an schooled ’s socialist true believers on improbable goal for a minority as shaky as this one is likely to the issue in the 1940s, and be. Attacking union privilege, an essential component of any their party has been in genuine reform, would serve only to unite the strained power for much of the past partnership between the PQ and its union allies. Attacking 70 years. Stephen Harper is pounding a similar lesson corporate and regulatory protections would galvanize into his hardliners today. the Liberal corporate leadership of Quebec Inc. to attack From right or left, in a Charest’s impertinence. separatist party or an envi- ronmental movement, if in this one, but it seems an improbable facilitate its inscription in the Canadian you are serious about politics and the goal for a minority as shaky as this one Constitution,” he told supporters. When power to deliver change, first you must is likely to be. Attacking union privi- a sound-bite-savvy politician uses such a win. In other words, as politicians lege, an essential component of any convoluted conditional verbal construc- from Gladstone to Churchill to genuine reform, would serve only to tion, you know he is not serious. Lyndon Johnson have cautioned their unite the strained partnership between No one saluted his trial balloon and zealots: “The first job of a politician is the PQ and its union allies. Attacking the “autonomy” flag disappeared again. to get elected; the second is to get re- corporate welfare and regulatory pro- If he were foolish enough to precipitate elected.” Boisclair has signalled that he tections would galvanize the Liberal an election on the issue, Dumont would understands this and wants to conduct corporate leadership of Quebec Inc. to be returned to a more pastoral life in an ideological and organizational attack Charest’s impertinence. rural Quebec within weeks. spring cleaning within the PQ, such as So Dumont and Charest will proba- it has not had since its formation. ome have speculated that Dumont bly carefully work out their dance steps, Boisclair’s vision appears to be clos- S will demand a revival of Canada’s cobbling together a pretence of legislative er to a Catalan, Scottish or Belgian sec- constitutional flea market, the slightly content to their governing for a year or tarian party model than to the sleazy political bargaining between 18 months, before launching round two genuinely sovereignist brand of old: a Ottawa and the provinces that almost in the transformation of Quebec politics. party that fights resolutely for commu- derailed Canada for more than 30 years. Some have argued that Charest will not nity or parochial interests in the region- But the “policy jurisdiction for cash” be around for the rematch, but cynics ask al or national , but avoids swap meets that Canadians used to per- why the Big Red Machine of Quebec pol- calling for the dissolution of the state. If mit the political class to indulge in are itics would waste a new horse on an elec- the party were able to so transform now badly out of fashion. If Dumont tion that they are very unlikely to win. itself, its message and its appeal — big ifs were to seriously attempt to recycle his Unless Dumont commits serious gaffes in indeed — it would join a constellation jurisdictional carve-up between Ottawa the run-up to that campaign, it is hard to of such parties in the democracies with and Quebec City, he would be slapped see how either the Liberals or the PQ can very secure niches, and occasional down vigorously. That perennial rum- prevent his winning power. access to power. Such a PQ role, though, mage sale was closed by Canadian vot- once the party has given up the crusade ers with Charlottetown. Even a Harper ould it not be wiser for the for a Republic of Quebec, explicitly or government, hungry for Quebec sup- W party to grant one with a nudge and wink to weary voters, port, daren’t reopen it. last chance to redeem himself, or more would have to be shared with the ADQ.

16 OPTIONS POLITIQUES MAI 2007 The ripple effect from Quebec’s realignment election

For it is clear that, like Maurice redoubts, freed of the need to rally irony of political life, is now the archi- Duplessis before him, Dumont intends against the sovereignist bogeyman for tect and master of its reconstruction — to be a tough Quebec champion locally the first time in a generation, may unless the very forces which ripped it and with Ottawa, if given the chance. begin to consider new options along asunder the last time are not better Quebecers would then have two auton- with the rest of Quebecers. managed today. There are grumbles omist parties, one mildly left of centre The man who will determine the from Alberta conservatives about and one to the right. More importantly, outcome of this dizzying change of income trusts, from Saskatchewan and though, Quebecers would have large, players and musical chairs is, of Newfoundland about resource rev- competent political players offering course, Stephen Harper. After all, he is enues and from old Reformers about domestic policy choices from across the the one who can arguably claim cred- big-spending government. philosophic spectrum. Quebec Liberals it for having launched the partisan We may be on our way to a federal might find the room remaining for merry-go-round. Canadian politics made up of themselves in such a new carve-up of It was Harper who reassembled the Newfoundland parties and Alberta über the political landscape — especially shattered Canadian right, and then alles parties, as well as Quebec advo- among francophone voters — a little hammered into the new party the cates, as regional grievances harden and too narrow for comfort. the national parties’ ability to For it is clear that, like Maurice broker acceptable national bar- s dramatic as this possible Duplessis before him, Dumont gains continues to fray. The A transformation of the painful experience of Quebec landscape may be, the intends to be a tough Quebec and the UK illustrates that even impact federally could be even champion locally and with Ottawa, if a National Front reaction to an more surprising. Nik Nanos’s given the chance. Quebecers would increasingly non-white Canada research forecasts that Quebec is as possible as a national Green voters are eager to drive their then have two autonomist parties, Party breakthrough. votes out of the Bloc parking lot one mildly left of centre and one to The sad dance between a where they have been sitting the right. More importantly, though, wobbly Stéphane Dion and an for more than a decade. That Quebecers would have large, increasingly too-smarmy-by-half would have the effect of releas- Green rival is less likely to deliv- ing some 30 to 50 seats onto the competent political players offering er a Green Party breakthrough national political marketplace, domestic policy choices from across than to be simply another nail in making majority governments the philosophic spectrum. Quebec the coffin of the Liberals’ gorm- possible again. It would also Liberals might find the room less new leader. mean that Quebec MPs would can plead that her get-elected- likely be more evenly distrib- remaining for themselves in such a for-free pass from the Liberals uted across all three national new carve-up of the political was not a backroom deal, but parties, ironically increasing landscape — especially among voter reaction made it clear they their role and impact over their francophone voters — a little too could smell the cigar smoke a years in the Bloc ghetto. mile away. Sadly, when Peter If the NDP took up the chal- narrow for comfort. MacKay convincingly defeats lenge of being a competitor in her, it may be seen as a rejection Quebec, and the Harper Conservatives commitment to party discipline that of environmental activism among do reap as large a harvest from this allowed them to regain power. It was Canadians, rather than as the judgment change as many Quebec observers Harper, alone, who saw the opportuni- of a savvy group of voters believe they will, this would create omi- ty for an anti-Liberal federal voice in about an attempt by power brokers to nous new challenges for the federal Quebec and seized a Quebec City limit their political choices. Liberal Party. Canada’s natural govern- beachhead when no one else thought It seems unlikely that the tensions ing party of the past century, already it possible. As PM, with the discretion in the Canadian political fabric will chastened by its devastation in all of and legerdemain of a seasoned courtier produce more successful regional or Canada west of Ontario, would then in the Versailles of Louis XIV, Harper special-interest mini-parties, however. face challenges to its only other bas- has ably seduced the Quebec elec- The first-past-the-post system is brutal tion, Quebec. torate, its political class and the media. to small parties. The established parties The party has not won a majority And this from a suburban boy, have written into legislation tough of ridings or francophone votes in seasoned in Calgary! barriers to entry, as well. Quebec in more than 25 years. Its The young rebel who helped We have probably seen only the anglophone, allophone and Montreal wreck the Mulroney coalition, in an opening act of an impressive new

POLICY OPTIONS 17 MAY 2007 Robin V. Sears

player with a strong show and cast on attempting to mediate between ● Canada as a vibrant diverse com- the national political stage. Harper Americans and the world. munity made up of many ethnic will use all his considerable political ● A Canada that is a significant mil- and regional threads, sharing skill to hold his reunited coalition itary power, able and willing to common values, goals and institu- together. Disciplined and determined use force internationally to defend tions, versus a Canada that is a to keep their confidence and their its national and allied security multicultural federation with zeal under wraps, his insiders are interests, versus a peacekeeping respect for the differences and nonetheless bursting with pride at Canada, more comfortable ship- even conflicts among us. their successes organizationally, polit- ping blankets than tanks. It is not certain that such a ically and especially in Quebec. They ● A Canada that is an energy and robust and self-reliant value system, whisper quietly, “You ain’t seen noth- resource superpower, sacrificing light on empathy for the less fortu- ing yet…” revenue and jobs to the environ- nate and uncompetitive, will appeal

f those predictable The sad dance between a wobbly Stéphane Dion and an I Conservative complain- increasingly too-smarmy-by-half Green rival is less likely to ers about ’s budget, and their echoes deliver a Green Party breakthrough than to be simply another among conservative pun- nail in the coffin of the Liberals’ gormless new leader. dits, really think Stephen Elizabeth May can plead that her get-elected-for-free pass Harper is becoming a from the Liberals was not a backroom deal, but voter reaction light-blue Liberal wannabe, they misunderstand their made it clear they could smell the cigar smoke a mile away. leader’s game plan entirely. Sadly, when Peter MacKay convincingly defeats her, it may be It is not yet time for him to seen as a rejection of environmental activism among highlight publicly the dis- Canadians, rather than as the judgment of a savvy group of tinctive policy threads that make up this government’s Nova Scotia voters about an attempt by power brokers to fabric. The volatile public limit their political choices. opinion numbers reveal that Canadians remain susceptible to ment only to the extent that our to a new generation of Quebecers or “hidden agenda” attacks where the competitors do, versus Canada as all Canadians. For some years, the Conservatives are concerned. a global green leader proud of its Conservatives may need to continue The differences between the wob- pioneering sacrifices on behalf of watering their wine to win a majori- bly legs of the urban and ethnic bro- the planet and our children. ty for their vision of a different kind kerage coalition the Liberals risk being ● A Canada that rewards innovation of Canada. reduced to and the foundation stones and entrepreneurship and new One truth should be rattling of a renascent Harper Conservative and small business, and challenges Dion and Layton to their core. When alliance are, however, stark. Not in the cartels, protected markets and reg- voters are hungry for change, the social conservative/Bushite fashion ulatory market protection with clear, coherent new political vision that Liberals and New Democrats like conviction, versus a Canada of delivered lucidly and with passion to pretend, though. cosseted national champions, always trumps even powerful com- The Harper vision is much closer regional taboos and regulated petitors tied to a tired and compro- to that of John Howard, or industries sliding down the global mised message. even — a heterodox competitiveness curve. On March 26, Quebec voters sig- blend of , populism and ● A Canada with two levels of gov- nalled their hunger for a change, nationalism: anticorporate, antiprotec- ernment that respect each other’s unlocking a transformation of the tionist and confident. Among the domains, provinces whose mar- province. Its ripples may roll from sea many clear differences in vision and kets are open to each other and to sea. perspective are: the world, with cities under ● A Canada that is a leading mem- provincial tutelage, versus a Contributing writer Robin V. Sears, for- ber of the Anglosphere, proud of Canada where the federal gov- mer national campaign director of the its special relationship with Lon- ernment innovates national pro- NDP during the Broadbent years, is a don and Washington, versus a grams as needed, including direct principal of Navigator Ltd., a Toronto- Canada that is a northern Euro- program delivery with the cities based communications consulting firm. pean middle power broker, if required. [email protected]

18 OPTIONS POLITIQUES MAI 2007