Towards trait-based modeling for albacore tuna predator-prey interactions under climate change in the NE Pacific
Dr. Natasha Hardy Postdoc in Biological Sciences @ U Alberta, AB, Canada & Hopkins Marine Station @ Stanford, CA, USA Collaboration with NOAA Environmental Research Division @ Monterey, CA, USA Within a context of increasing climatic variability and warming mean climate states…
NOAA > Global climate series > Climate at a glance > Jul–Sep …and shifts in thermal habitat causing species redistributions RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5
Projected shifts in distributions for 303 west coast species by 2100 (Jul-Sep)
Uncertainty Low à Med à High
Morley et al. (2018) PlosOne Use of traits to model species’ vulnerability to climate change
wide
thermotolerance Abundance
narrow
Temperature (˚C) 0˚ +2˚ +4˚ +6˚ warming environment But what about species effects on each other? Predator-prey interactions from the coast to the open ocean
Brent Hughes, OSU John Healey, Vancouver Aquarium Albacore tuna as indicators for climatic & ecological change q Albacore tuna as ecosystem samplers q Move beyond taxonomy q Identify trait-based parameters for diet shifts vs. environmental gradients q Apply those parameters to project for future ecological & environmental change Albacore tuna as indicators for climatic & ecological change
ü Broad & variable diet composition across environmental gradients
ü HMS – tracking change in thermal habitats
Hazen et al. 2013 ü Commercially valuable – NE Pacific with cross-jurisdictional CAN-US Treaty Trait-based predictions for future change
Conserved
Switching traits/prey with climate No relationship of prey traits in diets in traits of prey Predicted probability Predicted Cold Warm Average → Warming ocean Climate regimes Towards trait-based predictions for future change
trait * environment relationship
Predictive traits Taxonomic diet information
Environment Temperature + + Geography Not so fast…
o What is a typical albacore prey? o Which strong predictors for diet shifts? What is a typical albacore prey?
Global, historical review of albacore diets from late 1880’s to early 2000’s Table S5. Metrics showing prey species found in 86 albacore (Thunnus alalunga) stomachs in 2008, 2009, and 2010. Metrics are as follows: N is abundance, %N is relative abundance, FO is frequency of occurrence by stomach, %FO is % of stomachs containing that food item. Total mass is mass of prey items estimated from length, otolith size (fish), or beak metrics (cephalopods), and total kJ is estimated from mass using energy density values from Glaser et al.(7). IRI is shown for the 4 most prevalent prey items. A hyphen (–) indicates that metric(s) could not be calculated because species were unidentified; ‘nd’ (‘no data’) indicates that conversion algorithms were not available for mass and kJ for that species.
Total mass Total Order/Family Prey Category N %N FO %FO (g) kJ IRI FISHES Carangidae Trachurus symmetricus 179 11 35 41 452 2894 23.44 Clupeidae Sardinops sagax 51 3 25 29 122 887 4.97 Engraulidae Engraulis mordax 6 <1 2 2 16 105 Kyphosidae Medialuna californiensis 1 <1 1 1 nd nd Myctophidae Triphoturus mexicanus 6 <1 6 7 nd nd Scomberesocidae Cololabis saira 7 <1 5 6 <1 3 Scombridae Scomber japonicus 4 <1 2 2 0.1 1 Sebastidae Sebastes spp. 29 2 9 10 21 90 Fishes unid. 111 7 30 35 – –
CEPHALOPODS Argonautidae Argonauta argo 13 1 8 9 nd nd Abraliopsis affinis 1 <1 1 1 0.1 0.5 Enoploteuthidae Abraliopsis felis 19 1 11 13 35 155 Gonatidae Gonatus spp. 176 11 44 51 154 678 13.50 Loliginidae Doryteuthis opalescens 79 5 3 3 372 1639 Octopodidae Octopus bimaculatus 24 2 10 12 3 11 Octopoteuthis sicula 19 1 7 8 10 46 Octopoteuthidae Octopoteuthis spp. 2 <1 1 1 1 6 Ocythoidae Ocythoe tuberculata 1 <1 1 1 nd nd Ommastrephidae Dosidicus gigas 1 <1 1 1 55 240 Onychoteuthidae Onychoteuthis borealijaponica 17 1 4 5 13 59 Ceph. unid. 143 9 31 36 – –
Diet table CRUSTACEA Amphipoda Hyperiidea unid 20 1 6 7 nd nd Decapoda Pleuroncodes planipes 2 <1 1 1 3 10 Euphausiacea Euphausiid 540 33 45 52 384 1190 35.88 Crust. unid. 35 2 5 6 – –
French diet
table from 14 the 1930’s Trait-variation in albacore diets across geography
Conserved
Switching traits/prey with climate No relationship of prey traits in diets in traits of prey Predicted probability Predicted
Geography Global historical review of albacore tuna diets
NE Pacific
• 31 published 200 papers from
1880’s to 2000’s ichness e r
NE Atlantic • 50 unique ulati v observations of m albacore diet 100 Mediterranean
composition Species cu NW Atlantic
SW Pacific
NE Indian SW Atlantic 0 1880 1920 1960 2000 Years sampled High prey diversityAncistrochei in albacore diets
Dor
Heteroteuthis dispar Liocr
Alloteuthis sub S T Helicocr yteuthis opalescens
s eutho e
i
is acirrhus
p
n niana
s yi i
i anchia reinhardti i f
l e nalis f or Cr
e t r Galiteuthis ar a
f Galiteuthis ph t er
us lesueu r
T w a anchia scabr
s Sthenoteuthis oualaniensisEucleoteuthis luminosa s Hy odaropsis eb anchia pf i enia megalops i
o
s
s
w
aloteuthis pelagica p Ommastrephes bar p e
o
o
i
i
l n
l
a i
a ulata
a Ille r r
n
b
Dosidicus gigas b apetella heathi apetella diaphana ii eff a ia lamarckii Or J J Eledone cirrhosa Octopus vulgar Or x coindetii A Scaeurgus unicirrhus A Pteroctopus tetr yroteuthis inf Octopus bimaculatus Argonauta nour mata Argonauta argo usta nithoteuthisnithoteuthis antillar v yllur er Argonauta nodosus a Ocythoe tuberculata lanae Haliphronremoctopus atlanticus violaceus inar T Ille i amp a pelagica T Opisthoteuthis calif odarodes sagittatus V yr x argentin a Car Pter T Atlanta peronii odarodes pacificus Eusergestes similis Eusergestes arcticus itanicus ygioteuthis microlampas Pter tr Sergia rob wii Pyroteuthis margar amii Gennadas elegans ygioteuthisAbr giardi olatilis Systellaspisapasiphae debilis ussulcatifrons arctus Acantheph us ar alis alia redfieldi P us maur Alpheus glaberur HistioteuthisL heteropsis um ynchus ycoteuthis lor Scyllaalir n viatumvegica P olybius henslo bre Histioteuthis bonnellii P Pleuroncodes planipes Histioteuthis re Axius stirh Octopoteuthis sicula itif Nyctiphanes austr Octopoteuthis nielseni iger er Nematoscelisyctiphanes megalops vnooidesr a Stylocheiron ab matus Mastigoteuthis dentata a Megan atulus v Euphausia pacifica Chiroteuthis v ersa Platyscelus o usculumis Br Platyscelus ar Ancistroteuthisachioteuthis lichtensteinii r yscelus macrocephalusuirostr i Platyscelusach serr Br yscelus cr On ach On ykia rob er Br ychoteuthisOn borealijaponica anii ustulumvillei ychoteuthis banksiiiisei Leptocotis ten losse usta Streetsia challengea b r arapronoe cr Gonatopsis borealis P ylomer Berr Anch yteuthis anon Phrosina semilunata Gonatus calif imno macropa Pr ia galba Gonatus steenstychusr Hyper orniensis Themisto gaudichaudiibosa ana Gonatus berr Vibilia gib y upi Gonatus p Lanceola sa yi Neognathophausia gigas Gonatus oyrosn Engr Neognathophausia ingens Engr aulis mordax inii aulis encr yx Idotea metallica Engr asicolus Echinosquilla guer aulis japonicus Odontodactylusus darwiniihansenii Clupea pallasii Cosmocalan Sardinella aur Calanus finmarchicus Sardinops sagaxita Clausocalanus furcatus Sardina pilchardus Farranula gibbula Bathylagoides w Pseudevadne tergestina esethi Bathylagus stilbius Thaleichth Sebastes zacentrus ys pacificus Sebastes wilsoni Vinciguerria lucetia Sebastes proriger Bathophilus flemingi Sebastes bre vispinis Photonectes margarita Sebastes aleutian aldiviae Sebastes miniatusus Melanostomias v a Sebastes helv noptyx obscur Ster Sebastes maligeromaculatus Sternoptyx diaphanaersii Sebastes diploproa Helicolen Argyropelecus olatof rius i Anarrhichtush dactylopter Maurolicus imper ueller Bath ys ocellatus us Maurolicus m Anoplopomayagon fimbr us agassiziisso us pentacanthus us r P Chlorophthalm en eristedion gr Arctoz yrenoides Eutr ingens Medialunaigla gu calir f ia Lestidiops sph acile Lestidiops r Diplodus sargusnardus Boops boops alepis coregonoidesyalina Spondyliosoma canthaor r Par alepis speciosa niensis Par Sudis h Capros aper Antigonia capros wii Lactor alepis affinis ao Magnisudis atlantica Halichoeres nicholsi ini Microstomia diaphana MacropaOmosudisr us pha lo r us Glyptocephalus zachir us nikpar eni Pleuronichth Anotopter Cithar Diaphus theta is us pacificus Anotopter Ar ular T noglossus imper r ichth Diaphus luetk T achur r ys decurrens i Seleneachu setapinnisr ys sordidus issoer T us symmetr ii r us Notoscopelus elongatus Cor achinotus o us tr us T r letonbeania cren Scomberesachuroyphaena hippur Tar achur ialis Myctophum punctatumElectrona r xican Cololabis sair Benthosema glaciale Belone belone icus wnsendi us Strongylur us japonicus us mingii i Ather v yctophum crocus mke Mugil cephalus atus ar Blennius ocellar itter Scomber japonicus Lobianchia gemellar ius Scomber scombr inopsis calif x saur Protom Centrolophus niger iphotur Icichth r is us T Br a e a icar Br us T Pter ama br atoscopelus to ar us us Diplospin ama orcini xilis achium r P is i Psenes pellucidus yctus crocodilus Cubiceps gr xim Katsuw epr actes asper Cer G achius leucopsar i ys lockingtoni atoscopelusatoscopelus maderensis w achium regale ycomb yctus alatus aiti e ylor ypter m or Cer us vulgar ilus simillim Cer yctus intr ama ipes
p is niensis LampanNannobr Stenobr ach a ta y
on l us m niensis luccius productus u us petersii Nannobr us parf us
Lampan s us cuvier or us pelamis us tr Lampan s Mer ur acilis Chilar e ultistr
us atlanticus Gaidropsar r
Microgadus pro p us aequoreus us athron ur
e Nealotus t r
Mullus barbatus agon n
iatus achipter Melamphaes lugubr Chiasmodon niger s r Bar Micromesistius poutassou etr T agon Desmodema polystictum T Nesiarchus nasutus
Rhinogobiops nicholsii Entelur Scopelogadus bispinosus etr
T
Syngnathus calif ~240 unique species and ~460 unique taxa identified Max frequency of occurrence observed for prey species Typical focal prey species There is a need to model change in complex ecological communities using generalisable traits Traits for mediating predator-prey interactions
+ + + +
Habitat Refuge/ Physical Body position & diel migration avoidance defense shape behaviour
Using published, grey literature & FishBase + SeaLifeBase (Froese & Pauly 2000) 100 Habitat attributes
75
benthic 50
Number of Species demersal 25 benthopelagic
0 reef−associated continental shelf oceanic coastal continental slope midwater Horizontal Habitat 0 m epipelagic tical Habitat
Horizontal habitat e r 200 m V mesopelagic 1000 m bathypelagic 2000 m 0 25 50 75 Number of Species Habitat attributes
benthic
demersal
100 benthopelagic
midwater 0 m 50 epipelagic tical Habitat
Number of Species ?
e r 200 m V mesopelagic 1000 m 0 bathypelagic UN 0 1 2000 m Diel Migration 0 25 50 75 Number of Species Physical defenses
100 100
50 50 Number of Species Number of Species
0 0 0 1 0 1 Refuge use Presence of physical defenses
Predator avoidance/Refugia use Body shape
75
50 Number of Species 25
0 compressiform globiform fusiform elongated eel−like Body Shape Traits for mediating predator-prey interactions
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓
+ + + +
Habitat Refuge/ Physical Body position & diel migration Avoidance defense shape behaviour Multivariate trait-based analyses of tuna diets
How much variation is explained by traits?
Species Species predictive traits
Y X2 • Frequency occurrence (FO%) Morphological • Abundance (%N) Habitat position • Biomass (%W) Predator avoidance Physical defenses Aggregation behaviour Explanatory variables Morphometrics
X1 Species traits
• Geography Explanatory variables • Time series Y~X1*X2 • Temperate metrics (SST, temp anomalies) Fourth-corner results • Primary productivity (Chl-a) (correlations) • PDO, ENSO indices
Fourth corner analyses using mvabund in R – Brown et al. (2014) Methods Ecol Evol Species traits Physical traits physical defense 0.4
elongate Body shape fusiform 0.3
globiform
compressiform 0.2 Habitat use traits refuge use
diel migrant 0.1 Horizontal reef-associated habitat oceanic 0.0 continent slope
continent shelf −0.1 coastal
Vertical habitat bathypelagic
mesopelagic −0.2
epipelagic
benthopelagic −0.3
demersal
benthic −0.4
acific acific anean
SW P NE P NE Atlantic Mediterr Ocean Basin Species traits Physical traits physical defense 0.4
elongate Body shape fusiform 0.3 Horizontal reef−associated coastal continental shelf continental slope globiform Habitat oceanic
compressiform 75 0.2
Habitat use traits ance(%) refuge use 50 diel migrant 0.1