Towards trait-based modeling for albacore tuna predator-prey interactions under climate change in the NE Pacific Dr. Natasha Hardy Postdoc in Biological Sciences @ U Alberta, AB, Canada & Hopkins Marine Station @ Stanford, CA, USA Collaboration with NOAA Environmental Research Division @ Monterey, CA, USA Within a context of increasing climatic variability and warming mean climate states… NOAA > Global climate series > Climate at a glance > Jul–Sep …and shifts in thermal habitat causing species redistributions RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5 Projected shifts in distributions for 303 west coast species by 2100 (Jul-Sep) Uncertainty Low à Med à High Morley et al. (2018) PlosOne Use of traits to model species’ vulnerability to climate change wide thermotolerance Abundance narrow Temperature (˚C) 0˚ +2˚ +4˚ +6˚ warming environment But what about species effects on each other? Predator-prey interactions from the coast to the open ocean Brent Hughes, OSU John Healey, Vancouver Aquarium Albacore tuna as indicators for climatic & ecological change q Albacore tuna as ecosystem samplers q Move beyond taxonomy q Identify trait-based parameters for diet shifts vs. environmental gradients q Apply those parameters to project for future ecological & environmental change Albacore tuna as indicators for climatic & ecological change ü Broad & variable diet composition across environmental gradients ü HMS – tracking change in thermal habitats Hazen et al. 2013 ü Commercially valuable – NE Pacific with cross-jurisdictional CAN-US Treaty Trait-based predictions for future change Conserved Switching traits/prey with climate No relationship of prey traits in diets in traits of prey Predicted probability Predicted Cold Warm Average → Warming ocean Climate regimes Towards trait-based predictions for future change trait * environment relationship Predictive traits Taxonomic diet information Environment Temperature + + Geography Not so fast… o What is a typical albacore prey? o Which strong predictors for diet shifts? What is a typical albacore prey? Global, historical review of albacore diets from late 1880’s to early 2000’s Table S5. Metrics showing prey species found in 86 albacore (Thunnus alalunga) stomachs in 2008, 2009, and 2010. Metrics are as follows: N is abundance, %N is relative abundance, FO is frequency of occurrence by stomach, %FO is % of stomachs containing that food item. Total mass is mass of prey items estimated from length, otolith size (fish), or beak metrics (cephalopods), and total kJ is estimated from mass using energy density values from Glaser et al.(7). IRI is shown for the 4 most prevalent prey items. A hyphen (–) indicates that metric(s) could not be calculated because species were unidentified; ‘nd’ (‘no data’) indicates that conversion algorithms were not available for mass and kJ for that species. Total mass Total Order/Family Prey Category N %N FO %FO (g) kJ IRI FISHES Carangidae Trachurus symmetricus 179 11 35 41 452 2894 23.44 Clupeidae Sardinops sagax 51 3 25 29 122 887 4.97 Engraulidae Engraulis mordax 6 <1 2 2 16 105 Kyphosidae Medialuna californiensis 1 <1 1 1 nd nd Myctophidae Triphoturus mexicanus 6 <1 6 7 nd nd Scomberesocidae Cololabis saira 7 <1 5 6 <1 3 Scombridae Scomber japonicus 4 <1 2 2 0.1 1 Sebastidae Sebastes spp. 29 2 9 10 21 90 Fishes unid. 111 7 30 35 – – CEPHALOPODS Argonautidae Argonauta argo 13 1 8 9 nd nd Abraliopsis affinis 1 <1 1 1 0.1 0.5 Enoploteuthidae Abraliopsis felis 19 1 11 13 35 155 Gonatidae Gonatus spp. 176 11 44 51 154 678 13.50 Loliginidae Doryteuthis opalescens 79 5 3 3 372 1639 Octopodidae Octopus bimaculatus 24 2 10 12 3 11 Octopoteuthis sicula 19 1 7 8 10 46 Octopoteuthidae Octopoteuthis spp. 2 <1 1 1 1 6 Ocythoidae Ocythoe tuberculata 1 <1 1 1 nd nd Ommastrephidae Dosidicus gigas 1 <1 1 1 55 240 Onychoteuthidae Onychoteuthis borealijaponica 17 1 4 5 13 59 Ceph. unid. 143 9 31 36 – – Diet table CRUSTACEA Amphipoda Hyperiidea unid 20 1 6 7 nd nd Decapoda Pleuroncodes planipes 2 <1 1 1 3 10 Euphausiacea Euphausiid 540 33 45 52 384 1190 35.88 Crust. unid. 35 2 5 6 – – French diet table from 14 the 1930’s Trait-variation in albacore diets across geography Conserved Switching traits/prey with climate No relationship of prey traits in diets in traits of prey Predicted probability Predicted Geography Global historical review of albacore tuna diets NE Pacific • 31 published 200 papers from 1880’s to 2000’s ichness r e v NE Atlantic • 50 unique ulati observations of m albacore diet 100 Mediterranean composition Species cu NW Atlantic SW Pacific NE Indian SW Atlantic 0 1880 1920 1960 2000 Years sampled us inii us us ula iger b us furcatus us us darwinii us vispinis omaculatus villei ana ia y adne tergestina i v is b gi ula us finmarchicus us e loss bosa ys ocellatus us us dactylopter acile niensis n a ustulum us pentacanthus b a a or r ar usculum r uirost nardus ia galba ia F Pseude n Clausocala n Cala Sebastes zacentr n Cosmocala Sebastes wilsoni Odontodactylus hansenii Odontodactylus Sebastes pror r Echinosquilla gue Echinosquilla Sebastes bre agon Idotea metallica Idotea Sebastes aleutian atulus ingens Neognathophausia Sebastes miniatus y Neognathophausia gigas Neognathophausia Sebastes helv a s Lanceola egica Sebastes maliger r ylome b gi Vibilia imno macropa imno v Sebastes diploproa Themisto gaudichaudii Themisto Helicolen matus r Hype Anarrhichth istedionigla gr gur r c apronoe r P oides Bath Phrosina semilunata Phrosina er us v Anoplopoma fimbr r c yscelus r a h Anc viatum P yscelus macrocephalus yscelus P Eutr r challenge Streetsia e br h ac Medialuna calif n Leptocotis te Leptocotis Diplodus sargus h ac r B alis Boops boops ia diaphana r B Spondyliosoma canthar us pacificus r ser Platyscelus r yctiphanes no yctiphanes Capros aper ys decurrensialis r Platyscelus a Platyscelus Antigonia capros icus o Platyscelus Platyscelus Lactor ys sordidus Euphausia pacifica Euphausia ynchus Halichoeres nicholsi wii n Mega us Microstom ichth b a Stylocheiron itanicus Glyptocephalus zachir Nematoscelis megalops Nematoscelis Pleuronichth us symmetachur r r Nyctiphanes aust Nyctiphanes Cithar noglossus impeus trr us h Axius stir Axius Ar atus r us mau us achur v Pleuroncodes planipes Pleuroncodes r r u T o hensl olybius us arctus us achur P r n ali T us P a pelagica a Selene setapinnis r y achinotus o r Scylla Tr yphaenaus japonicushippux rsaur apasiphae sulcatifrons apasiphae Alpheus glaber Alpheus Cor a r a achur P Tr h Acanthep usta Scombereso xilis niensis Systellaspis debilis Systellaspis Cololabis saira e or Gennadas elegans Gennadas Belone belone b Sergia ro Sergia Strongyluinopsisr calif Eusergestes arcticus Eusergestes is nalis Ather r e Eusergestes similis Eusergestes niana Mugil cephalus ia lamarckii ia r o Atlanta peronii Atlanta us r ina Blennius ocellar r Ca f yroteuthis in yroteuthis Scomber japonicus p am V Scomber scombr f Opisthoteuthis cali Opisthoteuthis Centrolophusys lockingtoni niger albacore diets remoctopus violaceus remoctopus T Icichth ama Haliphron atlanticus Haliphron Brama br Ocythoe tuberculata Ocythoe Brama orcini Argonauta nodosus Argonauta Taractes asper yi us petersii Argonauta argo Argonauta Pterycomb iatus us multistr r Argonauta nou Argonauta Diplospin acirrhus us Octopus bimaculatus Octopus Peprilus simillim r Pteroctopus tet Pteroctopus Psenes pellucidus Scaeurgus unicirrhus Scaeurgus is Cubiceps gracilis r Octopus vulga Octopus Katsuwonus pelamis Eledone cirrhosa Eledone Gempylus serpens ipes r Nealotus t Nealotus apetella diaphana apetella J apetella heathi apetella J Nesiarchus nasutus Nesiarchus s i n i f f a s i s p o i l a r b A us aequoreus us r Entelu s i l e f s i s p o i l a r niensis b A r o f cali Syngnathus Ancistrocheirrus lesueu ii barbatus Mullus us atlanticus us r u Sepietta oweniana i n ago r et T r cuvie us r u n Heteroteuthis dispar ago r et Alloteuthis subulata T Chiasmodon niger Chiasmodon Doryteuthis opalescens aiti i f par us Rhinogobiops nicholsii Rhinogobiops r ylo n anchia reinhardti athro a Liocr t a r a Ba r Cranchia scabr Chila efferi is anchia pf Helicocr enia megalops w us Teutho mata bispinosus Scopelogadus r lugub Melamphaes r yllura ypte h Galiteuthis ar ac us r lanae t us Galiteuthis ph polystictum Desmodema m xi is r achipte odaropsis eb r T T Illex coindetii r vulga us Micromesistius poutassou Micromesistius o pr Microgadus Hyaloteuthis pelagica ius r ica r Gaidropsa yctus alatus yctus luccius productus luccius i r EucleoteuthisDosidicus luminosa gigasamii Me r tr itte n us Lampa r int yctus achium regale achium us r x argentiolatilisn achium n Sthenoteuthis oualaniensisIlle um Lampa mingii r Ommastrephes bar Nannob r a yctus crocodilus yctus r nithoteuthis v Nannob us Or ii wnsendi i r leucopsa achius n Lampa n xica r nithoteuthis antillar e odarodes sagittatus a Or T alia redfieldi er w atoscopelus odarodes pacificus a isso r T Abr itif Stenob e m us r iger Ce ygioteuthis giardi is atoscopelus maderensis atoscopelus o Pter t atoscopelus r iphotu r Ce r ula ersa r T r Ce eni r v Electrona k croc yctophum r ygioteuthis microlampas gemella Lobianchia Lycoteuthis lor ini Pter Pyroteuthis margar anii ao wii m er iisei Proto Histioteuthis heteropsis usta glaciale Benthosema Histioteuthis bonnellii r Histioteuthis re nikpa us r pha us Myctophum punctatum Myctophum Diaphus theta Diaphus alina k luet Diaphus n cre letonbeania Octopoteuthis sicula y i r ykia rob upi yi a ychus T Octopoteuthis nielseni isso alepis affinis alepis yx elongatus Notoscopelus ingens o a l Omosudis On ius MastigoteuthisChiroteuthisachioteuthis dentata v r niensis