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Private Equity Market Review and Institutional Investor Survey

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Private Equity Market Review and Institutional Investor Survey Private Equity Market Review and Institutional Investor Survey November 2009 © 2009 Probitas Partners 2 Confidential & Trade Secret. © 2009 Probitas Partners. Do not circulate or publish. C o n t e n t s Introduction ....................................................................... 3 The Private Equity Fundraising Landscape .................. 4 Private Equity Institutional Investor Survey: Executive Summary ........................................................ 7 Profile of Respondents ................................................. 9 Fundraising and Return Expectations ...................... 12 2010 Sectors and Geographies of Interest ............... 22 Niche Private Equity Sectors ..................................... 34 Structural Issues and Key Terms .............................. 40 Investor Fears and Concerns ...................................... 44 Conclusion .......................................................................... 46 Appendix I: Private Equity Funds in Market or Thought to be Coming to Market Over the Next 12 Months ......... 49 Confidential & Trade Secret. © 2009 Probitas Partners. Do not circulate or publish. 1 2 Confidential & Trade Secret. © 2009 Probitas Partners. Do not circulate or publish. Introduction Probitas Partners is a leading independent knowledge, innovation and solutions provider to private markets clients. It has three integrated global practices that include placement of alternative investment products, portfolio management and liquidity management. These services are offered by a team of employee owners dedicated to leveraging the firm’s vast knowledge and technical resources to provide the best results for its clients. probity ¯˘ ¯ n. [from Latin probitas: good, proper, honest.] adherence to the highest principles, ideals and character. On an ongoing basis, Probitas Partners offers research and investment tools on the alternative investment market as aids to its institutional investor and general partner clients. Probitas Partners compiles data from various trade and other sources and then vets and enhances that data via its team’s broad knowledge of the market. Also on an ongoing basis, Probitas Partners surveys institutional investors in order to determine more directly their perceptions of various aspects of the market, and the survey of private equity investors included here is part of that process. Included within this white paper is our listing of private equity funds in or thought to be coming to market over the next 12 months. A few important user notes on the funds listing: • The list does not track funds smaller than $100 million or €70 million, as these are not often targeted by institutional investors; • Information is collected from various data sources, but dynamically and accurately tracking when funds are launched and when they are finally closed is a difficult business. We constantly interact with investors and other industry sources in an effort to keep the data updated, and Probitas Partners appreciates receiving any corrections or updates which will help keep this listing as up-to-date as possible; • Probitas Partners relies upon its knowledge of the investment pace of previous funds, informal discussions with institutional investors and general partners, and its knowledge of emerging managers. Specifically, we do not seek confirmation of these estimates with general partners in order to avoid SEC public offering prohibitions. For the same reason, Probitas Partners excludes from this listing information on funds it is currently offering; qualified investors seeking information on Probitas Partners’ placed funds should contact Probitas Partners directly in order to have the most complete picture of all institutional funds currently in the market. Confidential & Trade Secret. © 2009 Probitas Partners. Do not circulate or publish. 3 The Private Equity Fundraising down due to the liquidity problems faced Landscape by North American and European LPs, the largest backers of the sector. Private equity fundraising has plunged since September 2008 across all geographies and The decline in fundraising this year has all sectors but one. The fundraising totals been much sharper than in 2000 at the last for the U.S., Europe and Asia are detailed in market peak, driven by a more sudden and Charts I through III. All of these markets are dramatic fall in the public markets. Given the in line to decline some 60% to 70% for the investor sentiment in our latest survey, the full year. Fundraising in the Asian market, fall in fundraising appears to have bottomed where many economies continue to grow out and that 2010 will be better, though a even in the midst of a global recession, is steep rebound is unlikely. Chart I Commitments to U.S. Private Equity Partnerships by Sector $350 297.0 $300 $250 236.4 236.5 $200 160.5 152.2 $150 $ in billions 107.0 100.0 $100 90.7 91.4 69.6 58.8 50.1 48.0 $50 29.8 31.5 13.3 19.5 $0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q1– Q3’09 Buyouts/Corporate Finances Secondaries/Other Venture Capital Mezzanine Source: Private Equity Analyst Note: Does not include fund-of-funds 4 Confidential & Trade Secret. © 2009 Probitas Partners. Do not circulate or publish. Chart II Commitments to European Private Equity Partnerships 64.1 €70 61.0 61.1 58.3 €60 52.6 52.4 €50 €40 31.1 €30 24.1 21.1 € in billions 18.4 19.1 17.7 €20 12.3 8.3 €10 4.3 5.0 1.3 2.1 €0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q1– Q3’09 Source: Thomson Venture Expert, EVCA, Probitas Partners Note: Does not include fund-of-funds Chart III Commitments to Asian Private Equity Partnerships $60 50.9 $50 42.7 41.2 $40 $30 26.6 $ in billions 17.9 $20 16.2 13.2 13.4 7.4 7.3 6.9 $10 5.3 6.7 5.6 5.9 6.5 2.0 2.3 $0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1H’09 Source: Asian Venture Capital Journal Note: Does not include fund-of-funds Confidential & Trade Secret. © 2009 Probitas Partners. Do not circulate or publish. 5 Secondary specialist funds are the one pricing. Though activity in the secondary sector of the private equity market that has market declined in the first half of 2009 as reached a new record in 2009. As shown increasing discounts caused sellers to back in Chart IV, through the first nine months away from transactions, the bid/ask spread of this year, $18.7 billion has been raised in the market is narrowing and transaction for the sector as LPs anticipate increasing volume is increasing. activity in the secondary market at attractive Chart IV Capital Raised by Secondary Fund Specialists $20 18.7 $18 $16 15.1 $14 $12 $10 $8 7.4 $ in billions 6.4 5.6 6.1 $6 4.5 4.1 3.5 $4 2.6 2.2 2.1 $2 0.8 0.4 $0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q1– Q3’09 Source: Private Equity Intelligence, Private Equity Analyst, Probitas Partners 6 Confidential & Trade Secret. © 2009 Probitas Partners. Do not circulate or publish. Executive Summary Probitas Partners administers this survey annually to gauge emerging trends and to compare investors’ changing views over a longer period of time. A total of 291 institutional investors responded to this year’s survey, with results collected in the middle of October. The key trends for 2010: • Many investors remain over-allocated to private equity. Even after the rebound in the public markets starting in March, many respondents reported that they are roughly at or over their allocations. While most investors are looking to maintain their exposure to private equity, a significant minority is under-allocated and aggressively investing. • New capital is focused on U.S. and European middle-market buyout funds as well as Asian growth capital funds. These sectors have increased in interest over the last year, while on a relative basis distressed debt funds and secondary funds have fallen. In discussions with investors, we have found that many anticipate that 2010 will be a strong vintage year for middle-market buyouts in the U.S. and Europe as those markets rebound from recession; continued economic growth in Asia is attracting interest there as well. • China extended its lead as the most attractive Asian market. The inherent stronger growth of the Chinese economy continued to attract investors, lengthening its attractiveness over India. Interest in Japan continues to fall significantly due to fundamental problems in that market. • Venture capital interest continues to decline. Interest in U.S. venture capital remains low, especially for life science funds, and interest in the sector has declined significantly from our 2007 survey, falling from third place to eighth over that period. Interest in European venture capital, always very weak in our surveys even amongst European investors, has fallen to a new low this year, with only 0.5% of respondents targeting the area in 2010. • Mega buyout interest continues to be weak. Only 8% of respondents say they will actively target mega buyouts in 2010, and return expectations on 2010 vintage mega buyouts is quite low compared to the middle-market sectors. • Investors are clearly focused on alignment of interest and fees. Both in our questions regarding terms and conditions, and in our questions on investors’ greatest fears, it was clear that alignment of interest was a key concern and the role of fees in diluting alignment was a strong LP focus. Confidential & Trade Secret. © 2009 Probitas Partners. Do not circulate or publish. 7 Chart V Respondent’s Profile “I represent a...” Fund-of-Funds Manager 12.8% 12.2% Public Pension/ 10.4% Superannuation Plan Endowment/Foundation 10.4% 29.5% Family Office Insurance Company 9.0% Consultant/Advisor 3.2% 4.5% 2.1% 4.2% Corporate Pension/ Superannuation Plan Bank 1.7% Sovereign Wealth Fund Government Entity Source: Probitas Partners 2010 Private Equity Institutional Investor Survey Other Chart VI Respondents Categorized by Firm Headquarters “My firm’s headquarters are located in...” U.S.
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