Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Carpathian region Final Report - Integrated assessment of vulnerability of environmental resources and ecosystem-based adaptation measures In co-operation with ECORYS, ECNC, Grontmij and WWF-DCP Climate change vulnerability and ecosystem-based adaptation measures in the Carpathian region Final Report - Integrated assessment of vulnerability of environmental resources and ecosystem-based adaptation measures In co-operation with ECORYS, ECNC, Grontmij and WWF-DCP This research was funded by the European Commission (Tender DG ENV.D.1/SER/2010/0048). Alterra Wageningen UR Wageningen, November 2014 Alterra report 2572 ISSN 1566-7197 Saskia E. Werners, Ernst Bos, Kristijan Civic, Tomáš Hlásny, Orieta Hulea, Lawrence Jones-Walters, Éva Kőpataki, Aleksandra Kovbasko, Eddy Moors, David Nieuwenhuis, Ilse van de Velde, Henk Zingstra, and István Zsuffa 2014. Climate change vulnerability and ecosystem-based adaptation measures in the Carpathian region: Final Report - Integrated assessment of vulnerability of environmental resources and ecosystem-based adaptation measures. Wageningen, Alterra Wageningen UR (University & Research centre), Alterra report 2572. 132 pp.; 37 fig.; 14 tab.; 111 ref. Keywords: Climate change, vulnerability, adaptation, Carpathian region The pdf file is free of charge and can be downloaded via the website www.wageningenUR.nl/en/alterra (scroll down to Publications - Alterra reports). Alterra does not deliver printed versions of the Alterra reports. © 2014 Alterra (an institute under the auspices of the Stichting Dienst Landbouwkundig Onderzoek), P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands, T +31 (0)317 48 07 00, E [email protected], www.wageningenUR.nl/en/alterra. Alterra is part of Wageningen UR (University & Research centre). • Acquisition, duplication and transmission of this publication is permitted with clear acknowledgement of the source. • Acquisition, duplication and transmission is not permitted for commercial purposes and/or monetary gain. • Acquisition, duplication and transmission is not permitted of any parts of this publication for which the copyrights clearly rest with other parties and/or are reserved. Alterra assumes no liability for any losses resulting from the use of the research results or recommendations in this report. Alterra report 2572 | ISSN 1566-7197 Photo cover: Saskia Werners Contents List of Figures 7 List of Tables 9 Summary 11 1 Introduction 15 2 Methodology / Vulnerability Framework 16 2.1 Process steps of the vulnerability assessment 16 2.2 Scoping our work / summary vulnerability framework 17 3 Key climate change pressures 19 3.1 Past climate change in the Carpathian region 19 3.2 Climate change projections 22 4 Water resources: impacts of climate change threats, adaptation & vulnerability 27 4.1 Current status 27 4.2 Main impacts of climate change on water resources 28 4.2.1 Overview 28 4.2.2 Impacts on rivers 29 4.2.3 Impacts on lakes 31 4.2.4 Impacts on groundwater and soil moisture 31 4.2.5 Impacts of changes in snow cover 32 4.2.6 Impacts of changes in land use and the water balance on landslides 33 4.3 Key factors co-determining impact and vulnerability of water resources 34 4.4 Policy (objectives) that can be affected by climate change impacts 34 4.5 Potential adaptation measures 36 4.6 Integrated assessment of water resources vulnerability 38 5 Ecosystems: impacts of climate change threats, adaptation & vulnerabilty 39 5.1 Forest Ecosystems 39 5.1.1 Current status 39 5.1.2 Main impacts of climate change 39 5.1.3 Factors co-determining impacts and vulnerability 44 5.1.4 Policy (objectives) that can be affected by climate change impacts 45 5.1.5 Potential adaptation measures and strategies 46 5.1.6 Integrated assessment of forest vulnerability 48 5.2 Grassland Ecosystems 50 5.2.1 Current status 50 5.2.2 Main impacts of climate change 52 5.2.3 Factors co-determining impacts and vulnerability 56 5.2.4 Policy (objectives) that can be affected by climate change impacts 59 5.2.5 Potential adaptation measures and strategies 59 5.2.6 Integrated assessment of grassland vulnerability 64 5.3 Wetlands and aquatic ecosystem 65 5.3.1 Current status 65 5.3.2 Main impacts of climate change 66 5.3.3 Factors co-determining impacts and vulnerability 67 5.3.4 Policy (objectives) that can be affected by climate change impacts 67 5.3.5 Potential adaptation measures and strategies 68 5.3.6 Integrated assessment of wetland vulnerability 68 6 Ecosystem based production systems: impacts of climate change threats, adaptation & vulnerability 69 6.1 Forestry 69 6.1.1 Current status 69 6.1.2 Main impacts of climate change 69 6.1.3 Factors co-determining impacts and vulnerability 70 6.1.4 Policy (objectives) that can be affected by climate change impacts 70 6.1.5 Potential adaptation measures and strategies 70 6.2 Agriculture 70 6.2.1 Current status 70 6.2.2 Main impacts of climate change 72 6.2.3 Factors co-determining impacts and vulnerability 73 6.2.4 Policy (objectives) that can be affected by climate change impacts 74 6.2.5 Potential adaptation measures and strategies 74 6.2.6 Integrated vulnerability assessment of agriculture 75 6.3 Tourism 76 6.3.1 Current status 76 6.3.2 Main impacts of climate change 77 6.3.3 Factors co-determining impacts and vulnerability 78 6.3.4 Policy (objectives) that can be affected by climate change impacts 79 6.3.5 Potential adaptation measures and strategies 80 6.3.6 Integral vulnerability assessment of tourism 81 7 Costs and benefits of adaptation 82 7.1 Current status adaptation 82 7.2 Prioritised adaptation measures 82 7.3 Actor groups involved 85 7.4 Costs and benefits of measures 85 7.4.1 Assessing costs and benefits of adaptation measures 86 7.4.2 Reported climate change costs 87 7.4.3 Climate change benefits 87 7.4.4 Costs and benefits of ecosystem-based adaptation measures 88 7.5 Case examples of adaptation measures for the Carpathian region 89 7.5.1 Adaptation option water resources: rainwater harvesting - improving water storage capacity and erosion control 89 7.5.2 Adaptation option water resources: Adjusting the operation of existing water infrastructure 91 7.5.3 Adaptation option forestry: Compensation scheme for forest protection 94 7.5.4 Adaptation option for natural grassland: The development and support of ecosystem monitoring systems 95 7.5.5 Adaptation option for grassland: the restoration of degraded grasslands with high biodiversity value and preserving existing small grasslands and pastures 96 7.5.6 Adaptation option for wetlands: Maintenance of alluvial forests 98 7.5.7 Adaptation option for agriculture: Supporting and implementing high nature value farming 100 8 Stakeholder interaction 103 9 Strategic Agenda on Adaptation to Climate Change 104 10 Metadata catalogue and information system 118 10.1 Strategies for the uptake of the meta-database 120 10.2 Current status website & meta-database items 121 11 References 122 Annexes 129 Kies een item.-rapport XXXX | 5 List of Figures Figure 2-1: Vulnerability assessment framework (Task numbers refer to Tasks in the Terms of Reference) ......................................................................................................................... 17 Figure 3-1: 11-year running mean annual air temperature in Poland (Przybylak 2011) .................. 19 Figure 3-2: 11-year running mean annual precipitation in Poland (Przybylak 2011) ....................... 20 Figure 3-3: Mean annual temperature (upper row) and annual precipitation (lower row) for the period 1961-1990 (left) and 1981-2010 (right) ................................................................................. 20 Figure 3-4: Seasonal temperature changes, 1961-1990 minus 1981-2010 (spring upper left, summer upper right, autumn lower left, winter lower right) ................................................................... 21 Figure 3-5: Change in annual precipitation 1961-1990 minus 1981-2010 (Source: CARPATClim Project) ............................................................................................................................. 21 Figure 3-6: Change in seasonal precipitation 1961-1990 minus 1981-2010 (spring upper left, summer upper right, autumn lower left, winter lower right) ................................................................... 22 Figure 3-7: Changes in air temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) for the future periods 2021– 2050 (left) and 2071–2100 (right), compared to the reference period (1971–2000) ...................... 23 Figure 3-8: Changes in daily mean air temperature (°C) (left) and precipitation (%) (right) in the greater Carpathian region in winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) as the multi-model mean for the years 2021–2050 relative to 1971–2000 (absolute differences in mm), for the A1B greenhouse gas emissions scenario with 14 different GCM-RCM combinations from the ENSEMBLES project ............ 24 Figure 3-9: Probability of short-term (3-month), moderate, severe and extreme drought events (%) in 1971–2000 (left) and 2021–2050 (right) ................................................................................ 26 Figure 4-1: Monthly mean changes of a) temperature, b) precipitation, c) evapotranspiration, and d) runoff over the Danube catchment for the A2 scenario in 2071-2100 compared to 1961-90. Source: (Hagemann et al., 2008). ..................................................................................................... 29 Figure 4-2: Expected changes in monthly mean discharges of a large Carpathian river