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Using Freight Market Intelligence to Understand Known Unknowns in Pricing

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Using Freight Market Intelligence to Understand Known Unknowns in Pricing Friday, January 25, 2013 2:00pm EST / 11:00am PST Presented by: &CHAIN alytics Today’s Speakers Insert Evan’s Headshot Evan Armstrong Matt Harding President Principal, Transportation Practice Armstrong & Associates Chainalytics Moderator: Brian Fish, Director, Business Development, Chainalytics 2 Global Third-Party Logistics Market Trends & Analysis Website: www.3PLogistics.com About Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Founded in 1980 Supply Chain Market Research and Consulting Services Over 19,400 Newsletter Subscribers Current Market Research: Who's Who in Logistics and Supply Chain Management – Americas Who's Who in Logistics and Supply Chain Management – International Over 350 Detailed 3PL Profiles; 6,000+ 3PL Customer Relationships “The Business of Warehousing in North America – 2012 Market Size, Major 3PLs, Benchmarking Costs, Prices and Practices” Targeted in-depth market research papers Articles & Press Coverage: American Shipper, Global Logistics & Supply Chain Strategies, Journal of Commerce, Logistics Management, Logistics Quarterly, Modern Materials Handling, Traffic World, Transport Topics, Wall Street Journal Consulting Services: Logistics Outsourcing, Benchmarking, Supply Chain Evaluation & Redesign, Strategic Planning, Mergers & Acquisitions, Expert Witness, Systems Evaluation & Selection Global Resources: U.S. Organization; Eric Xiang, Shanghai China; Latin America, Japan and South Korea Alliance Partners 4 Copyright © 2013 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. http://www.3plogistics.com/Site_Visits.htm A&A has reviewed over 100 distinct 3PL operations, some multiple times. 5 Copyright © 2013 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. http://www.3PLAdvisor.com.htm Provider profile information and 3PL customer reviews 6 Copyright © 2013 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Domestic and International Providers Connect the Global Supply Chain 3PL “Connectivity” Manufacturing Ports Suppliers Distribution Carriers Sourcing Centers Customers Customs Transportation Services: Air Package Delivery Repair Center Brokerage Operations Ocean Shipping Dedicated Contract Carriage Rail Freight Forwarding Rail TOFC/COFC Home Delivery Small Package Just-In-time (JIT) Specialized Less-than-Truckload (LTL) Truckload TRANSPORTATION MANAGEMENT SERVICES Transportation Planning Transportation Execution: Freight Bill Payment: Carrier Mgmt and Contracting Contract File Maintenance Pre-Audit Inbound Shipment Planning Exception handling Post-Audit Outbound Shipment Planning Load Tendering Performed In-house End-to-End Matching Loss/Damage Claims Outsourced Mode Conversion/Optimization Tracking & Tracing Value -Added Services Call Centers Lot Control Reverse Logistics Cross Docking Merge In Transit Store Support Customization Manufacturing Support Sequencing/Metering Inventory Control/Vendor Mgmt Pick/Pack Specialty Packaging KanBan Pool Distribution Sub Assembly Kitting Repair/Refurbish Labeling Returnable Container Mgmt OTHER 3PL SERVICES, SKILLS & HANDLING Consulting/Process Reengineering Purchase Order Mgmt Bulk Commodities Factoring/Financial Services Project Logistics Hazardous Materials Installation/Removal Quality Control Food Grade/Sterile Order Management Union Services Temperature Controlled 7 Copyright © 2013 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Top Global Fortune 500 Buyers of 3PL Services 49 53 51 42 42 41 39 35 36 32 31 30 30 29 8 Copyright © 2013 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Global 3PL Market Trends by Major Geographic Region The Global 3PL Market reached $616B in 2011. US$ Billions US$ 2013E Region / Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 CAGR vs. 2012 North America $ 131.5 $ 142.9 $ 148.1 $ 128.1 $ 150.5 $ 159.9 4.0% 5-7% Europe $ 143.6 $ 170.1 $ 171.3 $ 162.3 $ 145.7 $ 160.4 2.2% 0-2% Asia Pacific $ 94.3 $ 112.5 $ 117.9 $ 146.4 $ 165.7 $ 191.1 15.2% 12-15% South America $ 10.4 $ 15.4 $ 16.2 $ 27.6 $ 33.3 $ 39.5 30.6% 15-18% 9 Copyright © 2013 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Top 25 Global 3PLs – 2011 2011 Gross Logistics Revenue Rank Third-Party Logistics Provider (3PL) (US$ Millions)* 1 DHL Supply Chain & Global Forwarding 32,160 3PL has been 2 Kuehne + Nagel 22,181 dominated by large 3 DB Schenker Logistics 20,704 4 Nippon Express 20,313 European and U.S.- 5 C.H. Robinson Worldwide 10,336 based 3PLs. Growing 6 CEVA Logistics 9,602 Asia-Pacific 3PLs, like 7 UPS Supply Chain Solutions 8,923 8 Hyundai GLOVIS 8,588 Toll Holdings are 9 DSV 8,170 experiencing above 10 Panalpina 7,358 average recent growth. 11 SDV/Bolloré Logistics 6,785 12 Sinotrans 6,769 13 Toll Holdings 6,432 14 Expeditors International of Washington 6,150 15 DACHSER 5,925 The largest global 3PLs 16 Geodis 5,890 have operations in 17 GEFCO 5,267 geographies 18 Norbert Dentressangle 4,980 19 UTi Worldwide 4,914 representing over 90% 20 Hellmann Worldwide Logistics 4,687 of the world’s GDP. 21 Agility 4,410 22 Yusen Logistics 3,881 23 Wincanton 3,507 *Revenues are company reported or A&A 24 Caterpillar Logistics Services 3,465 estimates and have been converted to US$ using the average exchange rate in order to make non- 25 GENCO ATC 3,372 currency related growth comparisons. 10 Copyright © 2013 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Trends in 3PL/Customer Relationships % of Domestic Fortune 500 Companies using 3PLs 11 Copyright © 2013 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. U.S. 3PL Market 1996 – 2012E (US$ Billions) $150 $142.2 $140 $133.8 $130 $127.0 $127.3 1996 – 2011 CAGR = 10.3% $119.0 $120 $113.6 $107.1 $110 $103.7 $100 $89.4 $90 $76.9 $80 $71.1 $70 $65.3 $60 $56.6 Gross Revenue/Turnover Gross $50 $45.3 $39.6 $40 $34.2 $30.8 $30 $20 $10 $0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E Year The U.S. 3PL industry has experienced a strong rebound from the economic downturn in 2009. For 2011, 3PL growth was three times the growth in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). With Asia cooling and Europe in decline, growth for 2011 was 5.1% and is estimated at 6.3% for 2012. 2013 should be similar to 2012. 12 Copyright © 2013 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. 3PL Gross Revenue by Industry 2005-2012E – Fortune 1000 (US$B) Major Industry Growth Automotive Consumer Goods Elements Food, Groceries Healthcare Industrial Retailing Technological Other 2005-2011 CAGR 0.9% 4.7% 4.1% 6.5% 8.5% 7.1% 5.2% 5.3% 2.5% 2005-2012E CAGR 1.8% 4.6% 4.6% 6.3% 8.4% 8.0% 5.1% 5.3% 2.9% 13 Copyright © 2013 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Growth by U.S. 3PL Market Segment 2011 2011 % Change Gross Revenue Net Revenue 1995-2011 2013E vs. 2012 3PL Market Segment (US$ Billions) (US$ Billions) CAGR Net Revenue Domestic Transportation Management 41.3 6.3 11.6% 8-10% International Transportation Management 46.1 17.7 15.0% 2-4% Dedicated Contract Carriage 11.1 10.9 7.5% 3-5% Value-Added Warehousing & Distribution 34.0 26.6 14.3% 5-7% Total 130.8 61.0 12.3% 4-6% Net Revenue Growth by 3PL Segment 29,000 27,000 25,000 ITM has been 23,000 the Highest 21,000 Growth 19,000 17,000 Segment, but 15,000 has cooled. 13,000 (US$ Millions)(US$ 11,000 9,000 7,000 VAWD is 5,000 Maturing. DCC is 3,000 Mature. 1,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E Value-Added Warehousing & Distribution (VAWD) - Asset Based Dedicated Contract Carriage (DCC) - Asset14 Based Copyright © 2013 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. International Transportation Management (ITM) - Non-Asset Based Domestic Transportation Management (DTM) - Non-Asset Based After-Tax Net Income Margin Trends by 3PL Market Segment 20% 2011 , 17.4% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 7.3% 6% 4.5% 4% 2% 3.0% 0% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year Value-Added Warehousing & Distribution (VAWD) - Asset-Based Dedicated Contract Carriage (DCC) - Asset-Based International Transportation Management (ITM) - Non-Asset Based Domestic Transportation Management (DTM) - Non-Asset Based 15 Copyright © 2013 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. U.S. DTM Network Transportation Managers Robust TMS for network transportation planning and execution Heavy EDI/electronic systems interfaces Some Buy/Sell side arrangements with a lot of Freight Under Management FUM = Freight Under Management, Managed Transportation . Shipper may hold contracts with core carriers . Shipper contracts with a 3PL which gets a management fee (1.5-3% of FUM) 16 Copyright © 2013 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Top 30 DTM/Freight Brokers Ranked by 2011 Net Revenue 8,740 CHRW’s net revenue is 40% of the total Top 30. 17 Copyright © 2013 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Typical DTM/Freight Brokerage Services Pricing Models Service Type Net Revenue/Income Source Spot market/transactional freight Spread (gross margin) between amount paid brokerage to carrier and amount collected from shipper (target is ≥15% gross margin) Large contract customer “Enterprise” 5-7% gross margin transportation management Basic 3PL DTM: Use of TMS with 4-5% of freight under management, standardized reporting. accessorial charges for value-adds as requested Large 3PL Network Transportation 1.5-3% of freight under management, fee per Management: TMS with carrier contracting logistics engineer plus markup, accessorial and payment, shipment/load optimization, charges for value-adds as requested end-to-end load matching 18 Copyright © 2013 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. U.S. DTM/Freight Brokerage Average Gross Margin Trend (Annual sample groups represent >40% of total market) 19 Copyright © 2013 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. 3PLs – Expanding Oil & Natural Gas Business in the Bakken Formation Bakken Formation, a Significant New Domestic Source of Oil and Natural Gas: • According to the 2008 United States Geological Survey, the Bakken Formation of the Williston Basin Province in Montana and North Dakota has estimated average undiscovered volumes of: Source: USGS . 3.65 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil, . 1.85 trillion cubic feet of associated/dissolved natural gas, . and 148 million barrels of natural gas liquids.
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