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This Article Appeared in a Journal Published by Elsevier. the Attached (This is a sample cover image for this issue. The actual cover is not yet available at this time.) This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues. Other uses, including reproduction and distribution, or selling or licensing copies, or posting to personal, institutional or third party websites are prohibited. In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or institutional repository. Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier’s archiving and manuscript policies are encouraged to visit: http://www.elsevier.com/copyright Author's personal copy Applied Geography 39 (2013) 16e25 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Applied Geography journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apgeog Impact of the 2010e2011 La Niña phenomenon in Colombia, South America: The human toll of an extreme weather event N. Hoyos a,b,*, J. Escobar a,c, J.C. Restrepo d, A.M. Arango e, J.C. Ortiz d a Center for Tropical Paleoecology and Archaeology, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI), Panama b Corporación Geológica ARES, Calle 44A No. 53-96, Bogotá, Colombia c Universidad del Norte, Km 5 vía Puerto Colombia, Departamento de Ingeniería Civil y Ambiental, Barranquilla, Colombia d Grupo de Física Aplicada, Área de Océano y Atmósfera, Departamento de Física, Universidad del Norte, Km 5 vía Puerto Colombia, Barranquilla, Colombia e iMMAP, Bogota, Colombia abstract Keywords: The 2010e2011 La Niña (positive phase of El Niño) phenomenon affected four million Colombians, w9% ENSO of the total population, and caused economic losses of approximately US $7.8 billion, related to Extreme weather events destruction of infrastructure, flooding of agricultural lands and payment of government subsidies. We Spatial autocorrelation analyzed the spatial patterns of effects on the population, measured as the number of affected persons in Spatial error ’ Natural hazard each municipality normalized to the total municipal population for 2011, using global (Moran s I index) Vulnerability and local (LISA) spatial autocorrelation indicators, and multiple regression analyses (OLS and ML spatial error model). The spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed two regional clusters or “hotspots” with high autocorrelation values, in the lower Magdalena River Valley (Caribbean plains) and lower Atrato Valley (Pacific lowlands). The regression analyses emphasized the importance of the spatial component as well as the variables related to hazard exposure and social vulnerability. Municipalities in “hotspots” show: (1) a high degree of flooding, as they are located on the Magdalena and Atrato River floodplains, and (2) high social vulnerability, suggested by low values of the ICV (national living conditions index). Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Introduction injury and displacement (Parmesan & Martens, 2008; Parmesan, Root, & Willig, 2000). Climate change, particularly extreme Climate patterns have changed throughout Earth’s history. Since weather events, poses risks and challenges for society. Most the late 1800s, these changes have been largely caused by research, however, has addressed the climate component of climate increasing amounts of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the change, whereas its impact on human well-being remains poorly atmosphere. The average temperature of the planet has increased understood (NRC, 2009). In social terms, effects of extreme events 0.74 C over the last century, and most of this increase has occurred are evaluated by analyzing the vulnerability of exposed commu- in the last three decades (Arguez, 2007; IPCC, 2007). It is estimated nities. Impacts on socioeconomic systems are often amplified by that increases in the concentration of greenhouse gases will cause factors such as social inequality, disease and social conflict. additional warming of 1.1e6.4 C by the end of this century (IPCC, Understanding vulnerability and how it relates to climate change, 2007). The increase in global average temperatures is expected to particularly extreme weather events, is an initial step in managing cause increases in extreme weather events, which will, in turn, climate change risks. Geographically explicit vulnerability analysis have effects on ecosystems and society. Such events drive greater is critical to understand how interactions between the physical changes in natural and social systems than do average climate environment and humans change over space and time (Emrich & conditions as a consequence of damage to infrastructure and agri- Cutter, 2011; Montz & Tobin, 2011; Moser, 2010). cultural lands, diminished ecosystem function, and human death, Colombia experienced a strong El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cold phase known as La Niña, from 2010 to 2011. The weather event affected approximately four million people as of September 2011 and caused losses of more than US $7.8 billion, as * Corresponding author. Corporación Geológica ARES, Calle 44A No. 53-96, a consequence of destruction of infrastructure, flooding of agri- Bogotá, Colombia. Tel.: þ57 3105149269. E-mail address: [email protected] (N. Hoyos). cultural lands and payment of government subsidies (Redacción, 0143-6228/$ e see front matter Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2012.11.018 Author's personal copy N. Hoyos et al. / Applied Geography 39 (2013) 16e25 17 2010a, 2011a). A wealth of data was generated by government phase (El Niño). According to this index, there were at least 19 El agencies and non-governmental organizations on the effects of this Niño and 17 La Niña events between 1950 and 2011 (NOAA, 2011). phenomenon. Furthermore, such information was used to develop Because of their intensity and duration, the warm events in 1957e mitigation plans. Participating institutions included the National 1958 (8 months), 1965e1966 (12 months), 1972e1973 (10 months), Office for Disaster Risk Management (Unidad Nacional para la 1976e1978 (18 months), 1982e1983 (14 months), 1986e1987 (16 Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres e UNGRD), National Department of months), 1991e1992 (17 months), 1997e1998 (12 months) and Statistics (Departamento Nacional de Estadística e DANE), National 2009e2010 (11 months) are notable. Strong cold events took place Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies in 1954e1957 (20 months), 1970e1971 (14 months), 1973e1974 (13 (Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales e months), 1975e1976 (12 months), 1988e1989 (14 months), 1998e IDEAM), the National Geographic Institute (Instituto Geográfico 2000 (24 months), 2007e2008 (10 months) and 2010e2011 (10 Agustín Codazzi e IGAC) and non-governmental entities such as months) (Fig. 2). Climatic, hydrological and oceanographic distur- iMMAP and the United Nation’sOffice for the Coordination of bances related to these events had dramatic global socioeconomic Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Although these institutions pre- and environmental repercussions (Capel, 1999). sented their data in a spatial format (i.e. maps), rigorous In Colombia, the 1982e1983 ENSO stimulated scientific and geographical analysis was not done, largely because of time academic interest because of its environmental impacts, particu- constraints. In this study, we assessed the spatial patterns of ENSO larly in the marine sector (Alvarado, Duque, Flórez, & Ramírez, effects on the human population in Colombia, and explored the 1986). Interest only became widespread after the 1991e1992 relationship between such patterns and physical geographic and event, which caused a large decrease in precipitation and Andean socioeconomic variables. We first summarize the effect of ENSO on river streamflows, and led to a collapse of the national hydropower Colombian river flow dynamics and follow with a spatial analysis of system (Mesa et al., 1997; Montealegre & Pabón, 1992). The rela- the 2010e2011 La Niña event. We conclude with a discussion of our tionship between ENSO and river flow in Colombia was studied by findings. Mesa et al. (1997) and Restrepo & Kjerfve (2000). They showed that ENSO has an earlier and stronger effect on rivers in western, Climate and river discharge during ENSO northern and central Colombia, in contrast to a later and reduced effect on rivers in the eastern and southeastern regions of the In Colombia, the annual hydrologic cycle is controlled by oscil- country. For instance, ENSO explains up to 64% of the inter-annual lation of the inter-tropical convergence zone, superimposed on variability in discharge of the Magdalena River, the main river regional patterns caused by orographic influence of the Andes, draining the Colombian Andes (Restrepo & Kjerfve, 2000). Abrupt evapotranspiration in the Amazon Basin, continent-atmosphere changes in river discharge have occurred during the past 12 years, interactions and dynamics of the western Colombian wind and all were related with ENSO cold conditions (Fig. 3a). Wavelet currents (Western Colombian Jet e Chocó Jet) (Mesa, Poveda, & analysis, however, reveals that the contribution of ENSO to flow Carvajal, 1997; Poveda, Jaramillo, Gil, Quiceno, & Mantilla, 2001; variability has not been constant over time (Fig. 3b). Caribbean river Poveda & Mesa, 2004)(Fig. 1). Over longer time scales, major discharge also reflects the effect of ENSO (Fig. 4). Nevertheless,
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