1 Monthly Climate Summary March 2020

 1. Rainfall Performance Doc No: TEA 3/3/7/1 F-009 Revision No: 1 In This Bulletin  2. Temperature Review Effective Date: 01.07.2017  3. ENSO Watch Approved by:  4.Rainfall and Temperature Forecast

1.0 Rainfall 1.1 Spatial Distribution

March saw a significant decline in the rainfall received in the country. Rainfall distri- bution followed the traditional pattern where the western areas( Region 1)including the Highveld receive more rainfall while the south eastern portion (Region 3) of Eswa- tini receives the least monthly totals (see fig 1).The Lowveld and a larger portion of the Middleveld received less than 60 percent of the normal rainfall for march (fig 2). The Largest rainfall deficits (70-90%) were experienced at Mhlume, and Tinkhudla. , Mpolonjeni, and other neighbouring Tink- hudla also received far less rainfall, reporting less than 60 percent of the long term av- erage total form March.

Fig 1. Fig 2. Fig 1. Fig 2.

Fig 1. The spatial distribution of rainfall in March. Monthly rainfall totals ranging from 0.4 mm at Sithobelweni to 200mm in Mbabane. Fig 2 shows the percent of normal of rainfall received in the month where the north eastern recorded significant deficits while Mbabane, Motshane, and neighbouring Tinkhudla reported normal rainfall in the reporting month. 2

1.2 Rainfall Totals Compared

March 2020 Rainfall

250

200

150

100

Rainfall(MM) 50

0

Rainfall-Feb Rainfall-LT

Fig 3. The monthly rainfall collection for stations in March countrywide compared with their Long Term average Totals (LT). Less than average rainfall was received in the stations with the exception being Mbabane.

1.3 Temporal Distribution of Rainfall

Nhlangano Daily Rainfall-March 12

10

8

6 Rainfall(MM) 4

2

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031 Dates

Fig 4.

Depicted above is a daily time series graph (fig 4) for Nhlangano received in March. There were 13 rainy days in the month of April in Nhlangano with the highest daily to- tal of 11 mm reported on 1 March. 3

3.0 Temperature Review

Average maximum temperatures in March were higher for the month when compared to the long term mean maximum temperature (see Fig 6). The nights in March were sig- nificantly warmer for all the three reporting stations (see Fig 5).

March Maximum Temperatures March Minimum Temperatures 35 20

19.5 30 19

18.5 25 18

20 17.5

17 15

16.5

Temperature Temperature C) (⁰ Temperature Temperature (⁰ C) 10 16

15.5 5 15

0 14.5 Nhlangano Mhlume Big-bend Nhlangano Mhlume Big-bend

Max-March Max-LT Min-March Min-LT

Fig 5. Fig 6.

3.0 ENSO-OUTLOOK

Fig 7. Fig 8.

The ENSO watch is currently at neutral (see fig 7 ) and a majority of NMME models favor an ENSO-neutral situation through out the Southern Hemisphere winter (see Fig 8). 4

4.0 Rainfall and Temperature Forecast

4.1Rainfall Forecast

March-April-May Rainfall Forecast

Fig 9.

The predictors used put most of the country in Normal-to-Above-Normal rainfall over the forecast period ( March-April-May), see Fig 9. The only exception is the rainfall zone 3 which is expected to have normal to below normal rainfall.

4.1 Temperature Forecast

Fig 10.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecast output places the king- dom of Eswatini in the slightly Above Normal Category in terms of the expected tem- peratures in the month of May (Fig 10). This means that there is an increased likeli- hood that Average daily temperatures for the entire country are likely to be above those that are normally experienced during this time of the year. 5

© Eswatini Meteorological Services Additional ENSO information obtained from: Ministry of tourism and Environmental *Bureau of Meteorology in Australia, Http:// Affairs www.bom.gov.au P.O. Box 2652 *National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Mbabane (NOAA). Phone (+268) 24046274/24048859 * IRI Fax (+268) 24041530 E-mail: [email protected] http:www.swazimet.gov.sz