Social Capital, Social Cohesion and Social Disadvantage- Shepparton Revisited

Rob Hudson August, 2018

Introduction The 2011 Social Capital Study

In October 2011 I presented a paper on social capital in Shepparton, paying particular attention to the extent to which newly arrived migrants in the city felt included and supported by the mainstream community. I also explored the relationship between the creation of social capital, disadvantage, social inclusion and social cohesion. It was hoped that that the paper would help the philanthropic trusts investing in Shepparton to assess the extent to which their interventions are likely to assist in creating a cohesive, mutually supportive society.

The level of social capital in any community is defined by the extent to which there are networks of trust and reciprocity that link multiple individuals together. Social capital indicators for Shepparton drawing on a series of studies in 2004, 2006 and 2008 indicated some important findings. These included:

• over time, an increasing percentage of Shepparton residents had felt that multiculturalism didn’t make life in the area better; however, • more Shepparton residents thought they lived in an active community, with more people getting involved in local issues and activities than the rest of Victoria.

In 2011 I reported that Shepparton had a higher rate of crimes against the person, crimes against property and other crime than the average for the whole of Victoria. This fed into survey responses from Shepparton residents who stated that they felt less safe on the streets at night than in other parts of regional Victoria or in Victoria as a whole. I posited that this fear may partly relate to the relatively high rates of disengagement by young people aged 15 to 19 from education, training or work.

An analysis of the extent to which schools in the City of Greater Shepparton embrace students from different socio-economic, religious, racial and culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds was also conducted in 2011 using the data available on the Australian government’s My School website.

The analysis indicated that the inner city primary schools had very high concentrations of indigenous students and students from a language background other than English (LBOTE). Likewise most schools in Mooroopna had a high percentage of students from these backgrounds. However, the outlying primary schools had virtually no students from a LBOTE background, although they did enrol a significant number of indigenous students.

This raised questions about the extent to which education could help build social capital and social cohesion by bridging the divide that can develop between people from culturally and linguistically diverse communities.

Seven years on, I have been asked to revisit these questions in the light of what the trend data may now tell us. I regret that much of the series data that was regularly collected in the early 2000’s and informed the 2011 analysis is no longer available. However, I have been able to analyse some other data sets that point to some positive trends, as well as some continuing challenges.

1. Social capital, social cohesion and social disadvantage Most surveys over the last decade have indicated a strong sense of community in Shepparton; including strong social networks, positive perception of neighbourhood, participation in community events and a sense of belonging, (all above Victorian state averages). This strong sense of community may be evidence of the support provided to newly arrived people by various state, local government, welfare and health agencies and the high level of cooperation between them. Ethnic councils and organisations and religious institutions have also enabled cultural groups to maintain a sense of their own identity (bonding social capital) while joining in the life of the broader community. Service clubs and sport also provide strong examples of sincere intercultural bonding and friendships. (Understanding Social Cohesion in Shepparton and Mildura: Final Report, November 2015 VMC, La Trobe Report). The 2015 Report concludes that Shepparton has been largely successful in creating a cohesive multicultural city. However, the Report also notes that some groups, including local Indigenous people, people from particular racial, cultural and immigrant backgrounds and those experiencing intergenerational unemployment still experience some forms of discrimination, exclusion and disadvantage. The report noted that there are sections of Shepparton’s population living in poverty that are largely disengaged and who deal with high levels of the attendant problems of poverty including family violence, drug and alcohol abuse, low school attendance and school completion, unemployment, teenage pregnancies, and trouble with the law, (VMC, La Trobe study, Nov 2015). The report also notes that there are notable factors that diminish social cohesion including: • structural changes in the local economy, resulting in challenges around economic development • persistent long term unemployment and underemployment for particular groups • employment challenges for CALD communities, including employment discrimination, lack of sufficient training including English language, community misconceptions of migrants and the underutilisation of highly skilled professionals such as doctors, teachers, engineers and scientists • barriers to accessing housing for recent immigrants and indigenous people • experiences of racism and discrimination in everyday life • insufficient intercultural interaction outside of some religious institutions, sporting and cultural events. The SEIFA Index measures the relative level of socio-economic advantage or disadvantage based on a range of Census characteristics such as low income, low educational attainment, high unemployment and jobs in relatively unskilled occupations. The lower the SEIFA score the higher the level of disadvantage. Overall Greater Shepparton received a SEIFA score of 948 in 2016. This remains unaltered since 2011. Most of the area scores are also similar to 2011. There also remains significant variation within different areas and neighbourhoods within Greater Shepparton. For example Shepparton Surrounds South and Kialla are comparatively advantaged, ranking higher than the average for Victoria and Australia as a whole. Some areas such as Mooroopna, Shepparton South, Shepparton South East and Central remain amongst some of the most socio-economically disadvantaged areas in Victoria.

Socio-Economic Index for Shepparton Areas, (SEIFA) 2016

City of Greater Shepparton's small areas and benchmark areas Area 2016 index Percentile Shepparton Surrounds South 1,067.5 86 Kialla Urban 1,055.2 80 Rural North 1,034.0 67 Rural East 1,030.5 64 Shepparton North East 1,030.2 64 Shepparton Surrounds East 1,020.8 57 Victoria 1,010.0 51 Australia 1,001.9 46 Rural South 998.7 44 Rural North West 985.6 37 Regional VIC 977.0 32 Hume Region 975.2 32 Tatura 967.6 28 Moira Shire Council 951.0 22 City of Greater Shepparton 948.0 21 Shepparton North Central 938.1 18 Shepparton Urban Centre 931.3 16 Shepparton North West 907.2 11 Mooroopna 896.3 9 Shepparton South 888.6 8 Shepparton South East 845.6 5 Shepparton Central 842.3 4

Note: The lower the SEIFA score the higher the level of disadvantage. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2016.

Shepparton SEIFA Map, 2016

SEIFA Scores

Note: for the white section between the River and the Gemmill Swamp Wildlife Reserve and Golf Club, no data is available.

Source: https://atlas.id.com.au/shepparton/maps/seifa-index

2. Perceptions of safety after dark

Several surveys report that the percentage of people in Greater Shepparton who perceive it to be unsafe to walk around after dark well exceeds the Victorian state average. While the figures vary between studies, according to VicHealth Indicators 2015 the level has been consistent over 2007, 2011, and 2015. Related to safety is the local crime rate which rose steadily in the period 2014-2017 from 8,363 to 9,623 incidents per 100,000 of population. In the period 2017-2018, the rate has actually decreased from 9,623 to 9033 per 100,000 of population. This may be related to the pro-active efforts of Victoria Police in appointing a Multicultural Liaison Officer to liaise between police and the local community. (VMC, Latrobe Report). The first graph shows the criminal incidence of particular crimes per 100,000 of population in the 12 months to March 2018. The second graph shows the trend rate in crimes recorded per 100,000 of population between 2009 and 2018.

Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria

3. Early Childhood Development The Australian Early Development Census (AEDC) is a nationwide date collection of early childhood development at the time when children commence their first year of full-time school. Data is collected on five key areas of early childhood development (‘domains’) which include: • Physical health and well being • Social competence • Emotional maturity • Language and cognitive skills • Communication skills and general knowledge The AEDC domains have been shown to predict later health, wellbeing and academic success. Highlights of the AECD collections in 2009, 2012 and 2015 for Greater Shepparton: Overall, the percentage of Shepparton children vulnerable in two or more domains has increased since 2012, after dropping initially between 2009 and 2012. 14.8% of children in Greater Shepparton exhibit vulnerability on 2 or more domains, exceeding Victoria (9.9%) and Australia (11.1%). More worryingly, 4 regions within Greater Shepparton exhibit at least twice the level of vulnerability in Victoria on 2 or more domains: Shepparton South East (21.8%), Mooroopna (21.5%), Shepparton Surrounds East (20%) and Shepparton Central (19.8%). The rate of increase in children showing vulnerability in these areas has also increased more than the other areas of Shepparton. Whilst vulnerability exists in all areas, there is a general correspondence between the percentage vulnerability in two domains and SEIFA scores, the significant exception being Shepparton Surrounds East.

Early Childhood Vulnerability in Shepparton - (2009, 2012 and 2015)

Region Change in % SEIFA Vulnerable on two or more (including local 2009 to 2016 domains(s) (%) communities)1 2015 2009 2012 2015 Shepparton South East 12.5 12.2 21.8 +9.3 845.6

Mooroopna 21.3 27.3 21.5 +0.2 896.3

Shepparton surrounds East 8.7 15.4 20.0 +11.3 1,020.8

Shepparton Central 13.4 8.6 19.8 +6.4 842.3

Shepparton surrounds North - 13.0 15.0 +2 938.1

Shepparton North West 11.9 18.6 14.8 +2.9 907.2

Greater Shepparton 12.6 11.6 14.8 +2.2 948.0

Australia 11.8 10.8 11.1 -0.7 1,001.9

VIC 10.0 9.5 9.9 -0.1 1,010

Shepparton surrounds South 3.8 6.3 8.3 +5 1,067.5

Tatura 8.1 6.3 8.2 +0.1 967.6

Kialla 7.4 4.2 7.9 +0.5 1,055.2

Shepparton Rural North West 8.0 8.3 5.1 -2.9 985.6

Shepparton Rural North 0.0 3.4 5.0 +5 1,034

Shepparton North East 16.9 2.9 5.0 -11.9 1,030.2

Shepparton Rural South 23.1 2.4 0.0 -23.1 998.7

Shepparton Rural East - 12.5 - - 1,030.5

Source AECD Community Profile 2015

4. Primary Education High levels of educational attainment help build human capital and contribute to strong economic and social development. Participation in education also helps build positive values that characterise social capital such as reciprocity, trust, acceptance and co-operation. Effective education can also help reduce crime, poor health and unemployment. A number of studies link the involvement of families, the community and government to improved educational outcomes. My 2010 data analysis and now this analysis utilises the2016 data available on the Australian Government’s My School website, using the Index of Community Socio Educational Disadvantage, (ICSEA), enables meaningful comparisons to be made with schools serving similar student populations. The index works in a similar way to the SEIFA Index. Since 2011 Indigenous and language background other than English (LBOTE) enrolments have increased in the majority of primary schools with the highest percentage increases occurring in inner city primary schools with lower ICSEA values, confirming a trend first identified in my 2011 study. Evidence in 2011 suggested that there had been considerable ‘white flight’ from the inner city primary schools to schools on the outskirts of Shepparton following the arrival of new migrant groups from Iraq, Afghanistan, the Congo and Sudan. This had led to a drop in inner city school populations, forcing these schools to re-examine their curriculum offerings and develop school regeneration projects. These strategies appear to have yielded some good results in some schools, discussed below. The evidence around what is colloquially referred to as “white flight” is reinforced by the interviews conducted for the VMC La Trobe study in 2015 with two primary and two secondary school Principals who perceived two aspects to this. “The perception is that as the schools have diversified culturally, the Anglo-Celtic communities transfer their children to other schools. A second factor appears to be the fact that the most diverse schools also have significantly higher proportions of low socio-economic students,” (VMC La Trobe 2015. p. 65). Another interviewee referred to some parents as “economic escapees, and that “other schools are selected due to a pattern of having more resources and then attracting higher socio-economic families, which further increases the schools resources,” (VMC La Trobe 2015 p. 67).

The following Table shows the ICSEA value of Shepparton primary schools and the percentage of Indigenous/ LBOTE enrolments at each school in 2010 and now in 2017.

Schools ICSEA ICSEA Total % Total % Value 2010 Value 2017 Ind/LBOTE Ind/LBOTE 2010 2017 Schools - Postcode 3630

Wilmot Road PS 862 860 69% 81%  St. Georges Road PS 895 839 40% 72% Gowrie Street PS 841 833 43% 47% St. Mel’s PS 1009 991 27% 37% St Brendan’s PS 1041 993 25% 31% Bourchier St. PS 957 971 23% 29% Guthrie Street PS 971 988 16% 18% St. Luke’s PS 1056 1073 12% 16%

Postcode 3631 Lemnos PS* 941 858 12% 36% Orrvale PS 979 969 13% 20% Grahamvale PS 1009 1039 6% 12% Kialla Central PS 953 1006 16% 12% Shepparton East PS 1008 1001 19% 8% Kialla West PS 1038 1034 5% 1%

Postcode 3629 Ardmona PS* 893 710 20% 52% Mooroopna Park PS* 855 796 32% 44% Mooroopna PS 894 885 23% 30% Undera PS* n/a 906 n/a n/a St. Mary’s PS 960 997 5% 11% Notes: Several schools had enrolments of less than 30 students.

*ICSEA – Index of Community Socio-Educational Advantage provides an indication of the socio- educational backgrounds of students. It is unrelated to the quality of teachers, school facilities or teaching programs in the schools. The lower the ICSEA value the lower the level of educational advantage of the students who go to a particular school. The average is set at 1000. It is similar to SEIFA.

Arrows indicate whether the % of Indigenous/LBOTE students has increased or decreased since 2010.

Interestingly, the percentage of Indigenous student enrolments has increased in 15 of the 18 primary schools in Shepparton between 2010 and 2017. The percentage of LBOTE student enrolments has also increased at 11 of 18 schools.

Overall, the percentages of Indigenous/LBOTE primary students are highest in schools with low ICSEA* values, although the distribution appears to be more even across schools than in 2010.

Analysis of 2017 NAPLAN Results NAPLAN rates each school’s performance in Year 3 and Year 5 for Reading, Writing, Spelling, Grammar and Numeracy as Substantially Above, Above, Close to, Below and Substantially Below the performance of schools with similar students and of all Australian schools.

To consolidate this data and arrive at an assessment of each Shepparton primary school, points were allocated to each school as follows for each result in each year level:

Substantially above – 2 points Above – 1 point Close to – 0 points Below – 1 point Substantially below – 2 points

Results for each school were totalled and then classified as Significantly Above/Below (5 or more points above/below the average), Above/Below (1-5 points above/below the average) or Close To (equals the average).

Key points arising from the data In the comparison with all Australian schools, only one school, (Grahamvale PS), is performing above the national average. It is also comparatively more advantaged based on the ICSEA Index. Of the remaining schools, 10 are performing below the national average and 8 significantly below. In the comparison with similar schools, one school is performing significantly above (Wilmot Road) and 5 (Gowrie Street, Bourchier Street, Mooroopna Park, Mooroopna and Grahamvale), are above. Interestingly, 5 of these 6 schools all had high levels of enrolments of indigenous students and/or students from a language background other than English, (LBOTE). There were a further 2 schools classified as close to similar schools, with 7 classified below and 4 significantly below. Three schools are performing significantly below on both comparisons Aside from Grahamvale, all schools with ICEA values greater than 1000 performed below or significantly below similar schools and the Australian average. Conclusions There no clear correlation between school performance and either ICSEA or %Indigenous/LBOTE enrolments. Wilmot Road stands out as performing significantly above similar schools and not far behind all schools, whilst also having by far the highest total enrolment of Indigenous and LBOTE students (81%) in Greater Shepparton. Some schools that face significant challenges are performing well, and there may be lessons to be found for others. There is still a considerable amount that that can be done to improve the educational performance overall of Shepparton school students.

5. Higher Education Analysis of data for the City of Greater Shepparton shows that more people are studying and gaining Vocational Education and Training (VET) and University qualifications. However, whilst the levels of qualifications and participation in education are steadily increasing they remain less than the State-wide and regional Victoria average, which are also increasing.

Highest qualification achieved 2011 and 2016 City of Greater Shepparton 2011 2016 Persons aged 15+ (Usual residence) Change Regional Regional 2011- Qualification level Number % Number % VIC % VIC % 2016 Bachelor or Higher degree 5,001 10.5 12.5 6,241 12.2 14.5 +1,240 Advanced Diploma or 2,982 6.3 7.2 3,950 7.7 8.5 +968 Diploma Vocational 8,851 18.6 20.7 10,165 19.9 22.0 +1,314 No qualification 24,931 52.5 48.4 24,146 47.2 42.8 -785 Not stated 5,733 12.1 11.1 6,622 13.0 12.2 +889 Total persons aged 15+ 47,498 100.0 100.0 51,124 100.0 100.0 +3,626

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2011 and 2016.

Comparison s of the qualifications of the population in the City of Greater Shepparton in 2016 to Regional Victoria shows that there was a lower proportion of people holding formal qualifications (Bachelor or higher degree; Advanced Diploma or Diploma; or Vocational qualifications), and a higher proportion of people with no formal qualifications. Overall, 39.8% of the population aged 15 and over held educational qualifications, and 47.2% had no qualifications, compared with 45.0% and 42.8% respectively for Regional Victoria. The major differences between qualifications held by the population of the City of Greater Shepparton and Regional Victoria were: • A larger percentage of persons with No qualifications (47.2% compared to 42.8%). • A smaller percentage of persons with Bachelor or Higher degrees (12.2% compared to 14.5%). • A smaller percentage of persons with Vocational qualifications (19.9% compared to 22.0%). Changes in Qualifications 2011 - 2016 The largest changes in the qualifications of the population in the City of Greater Shepparton between 2011 and 2016 were in those with:

• Vocational qualifications (+1,314 persons) • Bachelor or Higher degrees (+1,240 persons) • Advanced Diploma or Diplomas (+968 persons) • No qualifications (-785 persons)

The two Universities in Shepparton, Latrobe and Melbourne, together with GO TAFE and other Training Institutes, have a valuable role to play in building social cohesion through the provision of education and training opportunities and developing workforce skills to meet identified labour force needs especially in education, health, social welfare, business and trades. They also have a crucial role in providing opportunities “for locals, particularly those in the CALD and Aboriginal communities, who would prefer to stay in the local area for education,” VMC Latrobe 2015, p.115).

The evidence suggests that these institutions have helped promote social cohesion through community celebrations and multicultural events as well as provided strong academic and language support for students with English as a second language,” (VMC La Trobe, 2015, p.115).

6. Unemployment and the need for economic development

Greater Shepparton’s unemployment rate has been consistently above the average for regional Victoria and Victoria as a whole for some time. In March 2018 the unemployment rate was 7.05% compared to 5.5% in Regional Victoria and 5.3% in Victoria as a whole. Unemployment has risen since 2006 (ABS Census 2016) while the labour force participation rate and employment to population rate have both fallen. The VMC La Trobe study (November 2015) identified that rises in farm and land prices and changes in the horticultural, agricultural and related industries have produced a situation where economic stability and/or mobility can no longer be taken for granted. This in turn has seen Shepparton lose some highly skilled segments of its workforce because of a lack of suitable job opportunities (p.79). This report also identified persistent problems of long term and intergenerational unemployment, under/unemployment of various groups resulting in social exclusion that in turn threatens social cohesion. The CALD community faces significant employment problems including language, discrimination, community misconceptions and lack of skills recognition. These are compounded by barriers to housing for recent immigrants especially from refugee, asylum seeker and non-English speaking backgrounds, and for indigenous people.

Youth Unemployment

Unemployment for young people aged 15 to 24 remains a persistent problem in Australia, having increased significantly following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. It has not returned to its pre GFC levels since. In January 2016 the Brotherhood of St Laurence studied regional youth unemployment rates across Australia based on a 12 month average and ranked the Shepparton region in the Top 20 of national youth unemployment hotspots with a rate of 14.6%. In January 2018 it had risen to 16.1%, an increase of 1.5%.

This is not a phenomenon confined to Shepparton. Comparing the current youth unemployment rates of the national Top 20 with two years ago reveals that in all but one of those hotspot regions youth unemployment had worsened since 2016. Conversely, in the 20 regions with the lowest youth unemployment rates in 2018, all but two recorded lower rates than two years ago.

In addition, underemployment, at 18 per cent of the youth labour force (February 2017), is the highest in the 40 years since the count officially began. The challenge now affects even more young people than unemployment, currently at 13.5 per cent. Young people are also far more likely to be in casual and part-time jobs than 20 years ago. The growing number of young people combining study with work does not explain the rise in underemployment, as the rise in the percentage of casual and part- time jobs has mostly been among young workers who are not studying.

Concern over the numbers of disengaged youth in Greater Shepparton who are not studying and not working has been growing over recent years. The Shepparton Lighthouse Project published a study in December 2016, Falling Through the Cracks, which was based on interviews with eighty disengaged young people. A range of initiatives, including a youth haven and mentors and role models in schools, have been identified and are being put into place in response to this research.

7. The role of economic, human and social capital in creating a strong and cohesive community. The trends identified in Greater Shepparton underline the important interrelationship between the three forms of capital; economic, human and social, needed to build resilient families and communities, as shown in the diagram below. For example, high unemployment and a lack of economic development can impede the growth of social capital. Likewise, a failure to invest in the right forms of human capital development can impede the growth of social and economic capital. Concerted action on all fronts over a number of years are needed to overcome disadvantage and build a more cohesive and resilient community.

Education Income, Jobs, Secure Training Housing, Workforce Participation Infrastructure Good Health Transport Local Leadership

Connectedness Social Participation Positive socialisation: inclusive, tolerant, and safe

Involvement in decision-making

Source: Indicators of community strength in Victoria, Department of Planning and Community Development, July 2011.

References Victorian Population Health Survey, Department of Health, 2011 Community Indicators Victoria (McCaughey Centre University of Melbourne), 2011 and 2015 (summary data only) VicHealth Indicators Survey 2011, 2015 Crime Statistics Agency Victoria data 2014-2018 ABS 2016 Census - SEIFA Australian Early Development Census 2015 My School website Mapping Social Cohesion - the Scanlon Foundation Surveys – Local Areas Report, 2013, AMF, Monash University Understanding Social Cohesion in Shepparton and Mildura: Final Report, Victorian Multicultural Commission and La Trobe University, November 2015 Falling between the Cracks – Stories of Youth Disengagement in Greater Shepparton, Lighthouse Project, November 2016 Acknowledgements Ros King provided considerable assistance with background research and the identification and analysis of data sets.