Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting 1996

Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting_1996 collect by macbookpro2100 Afternoon Session - 1996 Meeting BerkshireHathaway Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger discuss why they think portfolio diversification is a "protection against ignorance," explain why they're fearful of change, and argue that people rewarded by capitalism have an obligation to help people who don't do as well. 1. Investing with "the two wealthiest guys" 1.投资“两个最富有的人” WARREN BUFFETT: OK, if we've got a monitor over in zone 1, we're ready to start. WARREN BUFFETT：好的，如果我们在第1区有一台显示器，我们已准备好开始了。 AUDIENCE MEMBER: Yes.Thank you very much.My name is Maria Nicholas Kelly (PH).I'm from Tacoma, Washington. 听众会员：是的。非常感谢你。我叫Maria Nicholas Kelly（PH）。我来自华盛顿州的塔科马。 And my husband and I have rather different investment approaches.And in 1988, he bought me one share of Berkshire, so that I could learn something about investing.We both started about that same time. 而我丈夫和我有不同的投资方式。 1988年，他给我买了伯克希尔的一份股票，这样我就能学到一些关于投资的知识。我们都是在同一时间开始的。 And he has chosen to invest in, let's say, about 40 different stocks and buying and selling, and doing rather well for us, frankly. 他坦言，他已经选择投资，约40 种不同的股票和买卖，并为我们做得相当好。 My approach is more simple.And basically, I finally figured out last year that I should invest in the companies of the two wealthiest men in the world. 我的方法更简单。基本上，我终于在去年想到我应该投资世界上最富有的两个人的公司。 So — (laughter) — I decided we should buy, monthly, more Berkshire and Microsoft.So, then this year — and so, we've been able to do that. 所以 - （笑声） - 我决定每月购买更多伯克希尔和微软。所以，今年 - 所以，我们已经能够做到这一点。 This year, we read in your report that Berkshire is selling "at a price at which Charlie and I would not consider buying it," so my husband has challenged my investment strategy.(Laughter) 今年，我们在你的报告中读到，伯克希尔正以“查理和我不会考虑购买它的价格”出售，所以我丈夫挑战了我的投资策略。（笑声） I know that you are an honest man.And while you may not — (laughter) — you may not recommend to "my partner, Charlie," to buy more Berkshire at this time, do you recommend that I continue — (Buffett laughs) — my rather automatic investment buying of Berkshire? 我知道你是一个诚实的人。虽然你可能没有 - （笑） - 你可能不建议“我的伴侣查理”在这个时候买更多的伯克希尔，你建议我继续 - （巴菲特笑） - 我相当自动的投资购买伯克希尔？ And I wanted — I think I know the answer.But I wanted my husband to hear it from the horse's mouth.(Laughter) 我想 - 我想我知道答案。但我希望我的丈夫从马的嘴里听到它。（笑声） WARREN BUFFETT: I think you're using me here.(Laughter) WARREN BUFFETT：我想你在这里用我。（笑声） AUDIENCE MEMBER: But — 观众：但是 - WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I — we don't recommend selling it, but we don't recommend buying it, either.We are neutral on that subject. WARREN BUFFETT：嗯，我 - 我们不建议卖它，但我们也不建议买它。我们对这个问题持中立态度。 And I hope you continue to be in with the two wealthiest guys.I like the other fellow, too.(Laughter) 我希望你继续和两个最富有的人在一起。我也喜欢另一个人。（笑声） AUDIENCE MEMBER: Thank you. 听众会员：谢谢。 WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. WARREN BUFFETT：是的。 2. American Express has "slipped" in credit cards 美国运通在信用卡上“滑倒”了 WARREN BUFFETT: Zone 2? WARREN BUFFETT：2区？ AUDIENCE MEMBER: Mr. Buffett, I am Harriet Morton from the Emerald City [Seattle], the same area, the land of Microsoft.And I have a couple small questions. 听众：巴菲特先生，我是来自翡翠城[西雅图]的哈丽特莫顿，同一地区，微软的土地。我有几个小问题。 The first one is, recognizing your lack of interest in technology or sense of familiarity with it, I'm wondering if you'd give a few comments on Bill Gates as a manager. 第一个是，认识到你对技术缺乏兴趣或对它的熟悉感，我想知道你是否会对比尔盖茨作为经理发表评论。 But the second one, dealing with a business that you're familiar with, has to do with American Express. 但是，第二个涉及您熟悉的业务，与美国运通有关。 Would you comment on American Express' strategy to deal with their declining market share in the credit card industry and the rising importance of debit cards?Thank you. 您是否会评论美国运通应对信用卡行业市场份额下降的策略以及借记卡的重要性？谢谢。 WARREN BUFFETT: I'm not sure I got that entirely, Charlie.Did you?I mean, I got the part about American — WARREN BUFFETT ：我不确定我是否完全得到了，查理。你是否？我的意思是，我得到了关于美国人的部分 - CHARLIE MUNGER: She wanted you to comment on Gates as a manager and American Express as — with the problems in declining in market share. CHARLIE MUNGER：她希望你评论盖茨作为经理和美国运通的问题 - 以及市场份额下降的问题。 WARREN BUFFETT: Well, the first part is very easy.You know, Bill Gates is, you know, one of the great managers of all time and is an exceptional business talent who loves his business. WARREN BUFFETT：嗯，第一部分非常简单。你知道，比尔盖茨是有史以来最杰出的经理之一，也是一位热爱自己事业的杰出商业人才。 And when you get that combination and a high energy level and, now, an heir to leave it to, I don't think you do much better than that. 当你得到那种组合和高能量水平，而现在，作为继承人，我认为你没有做得更好。 American Express has, you know — has slipped over from where they were 20 years ago, obviously, in the credit card business.And I think they may have taken their customer a little bit for granted for a while. 你知道，美国运通已经从20年前的地方滑落，显然，在信用卡业务方面。而且我认为他们可能会在一段时间内将他们的客户视为理所当然。 I think [CEO] Harvey Golub is very focused on correcting that and has made some progress.But the credit card business is a very different competitive struggle now than it was 20 or 25 years ago. 我认为[CEO] Harvey Golub非常注重纠正这一点并取得了一些进展。但信用卡业务现在是一个与 20 或25年前不同的竞争斗争。 Interestingly enough, American Express, itself, backed into the business.Because they were worried about what was going to happen to their traveler's check business, originally. 有趣的是，美国运通本身也支持这项业务。因为他们最初担心他们的旅行支票业务会发生什么。 And they saw Diners Club come along.A fellow named Ralph Schneider and — started it.And they saw the inroads that were being made.So, the credit card was a reactive move.And for a while, they really dominated the field.And of course, they still dominate the travel and entertainment part of it. 他们看到了大来俱乐部的到来。一位名叫Ralph Schneider的人开始了。他们看到了正在取得的进展。因此，信用卡是一种被动的举动。有一段时间，他们确实在这个领域占主导地位。当然，他们仍然主导着它的旅游和娱乐部分。 But credit cards are going to be a very competitive business over time.And you need to establish — American Express needs to establish — special value for its card in some way, or it gets more commodity-like. 但随着时间的推移，信用卡将成为一项竞争激烈的业务。而且你需要建立 - 美国运通需要建立 - 以某种方式为其卡片设置特殊价值，或者它变得更像商品。 It's not an easy business.But their franchise — they've got a strong franchise.It is not what it was 20 years ago, relative to the competition. 这不是一件容易的事。但他们的特许经营权 - 他们拥有强大的特许经营权。与竞争对手相比，这不是 20年前的情况。 3. "A lot of mediocrity" among CEOs 3.首席执行官中“很多平庸” WARREN BUFFETT: Zone 3? WARREN BUFFETT：3区？ AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good afternoon.My name is John Weaver.I'm a shareholder from Bellingham, Washington. 听众会员：下午好。我叫John Weaver。我是华盛顿贝灵厄姆的股东。 You have discussed what a wonderful business is.One of the criterias in your acquisition, page 23 of your annual report, is management. 您已经讨论了一项出色的业务。您的年度报告第23页的收购标准之一是管理层。 Could you discuss how you decide what good management is and how you decide whether you have a good manager? 您能否讨论一下如何确定良好的管理水平以及您如何确定自己是否拥有优秀的经理？ WARREN BUFFETT: The really great business is one that doesn't require good management.I mean, that is a terrific business.And the poor business is one that can only succeed, or even survive, with great management.And — WARREN BUFFETT：真正伟大的企业是一个不需要良好管理的企业。我的意思是，这是一项非常棒的业务。而糟糕的企业只有通过卓越的管理才能成功，甚至生存。而且 - But we look for people that know their businesses, love their businesses, love their shareholders, want to treat them as partners.And we still look to the underlying business, though.We — 但我们寻找那些了解自己的业务，热爱自己的企业，热爱股东，希望将其视为合作伙伴的人。不过，我们仍然关注基础业务。我们 - If we have somebody that we think is extraordinary, but they're locked into one of those terrible businesses, because we've been in some terrible businesses, and you know, the best thing you can do, probably, is get out of itand get into something else. 如果我们有一个我们认为非凡的人，但他们被锁定在那些可怕的企业之一，因为我们经历过一些可怕的业务，你知道，你可以做的最好的事情就是摆脱它并进入别的东西。 But there's an enormous difference, frankly — there’s an enormous difference in the talent of American business managers. 但坦率地说，这是一个巨大的差异 - 美国业务经理的才能存在巨大差异。 The CEOs of the Fortune 500 are not selected like 500 members of the American Olympic track and field team.And it is not the same process.And you do not have the uniformity of top quality that you get with the American Olympic team in any sport.You do not get that in top management in American business. “财富”500强企业的首席执行官不像美国奥运会田径队的500名成员那样被选中。这不是同一个过程。而且你在任何运动中都没有与美国奥运代表队一致的高质量统一。在美国企业中，你没有得到高层管理人员的支持。 You get some very able people, some terrific people, like a Bill Gates, that we just mentioned.But you get a lot of mediocrity, too. 你得到了一些非常能干的人，一些了不起的人，比如我们刚才提到的比尔盖茨。但是你也会得到很多平庸。 And the test — I think, in some cases, that it's fairly identifiable, who has done an extraordinary job.And we like people that have batted .350 or .360, in terms of predicting that they're going to bat over .300 in the future. 测试 - 我认为，在某些情况下，它是相当可识别的，谁做了非凡的工作。而且我们喜欢打击.350 或.360的人，预测他们将来会击败.300。 And some guy says, you know, "I batted .127 last year. But I've got a new bat or a new batting coach," you know, some management consultant has come in and told them how to do it, supposedly. 有些人说，你知道，“我去年打了.127。但是我有一个新球棒或一个新的击球教练，”你知道，一些管理顾问进来告诉他们该怎么做，据说。 We're very suspicious of that.So we don't like banjo hitters who suddenly proclaim that they can become power hitters. 我们对此非常怀疑。因此，我们不喜欢班卓琴击球手，他们突然宣称自己可以成为强力击球手。 And then we try to figure out what their attitude is toward shareholders.And that isn't uniform, either, throughout corporate America.It's far from uniform. 然后我们试图弄清楚他们对股东的态度。在整个美国企业中，这也不是统一的。它远非统一。 We still want them to be in a good business, though.I would emphasize that. 不过，我们仍然希望他们能够做得很好。我会强调这一点。 We feel that — I mean, I gave the illustration of Tom Murphy in the annual report. 我们觉得 - 我的意思是，我在年度报告中给出了Tom Murphy的插图。 I mean, no one had either the ability — no one could top his ability or integrity, in terms of the way he ran Cap Cities for decades.I mean, and you could see it in 50 different ways. 我的意思是，在他管理Cap Cities几十年的方式方面，没有人能够拥有这种能力 - 没有人能够超越自己的能力或完整性。我的意思是，你可以用50种不同的方式看到它。 I mean, he was thinking about the shareholders.And he not only thought about them, he knew what to do to forward their interests, and — 我的意思是，他在想股东。而且他不仅想到了他们，他知道如何改善他们的兴趣，并且 - In terms of building the business, he only built it when it made sense, not when it did something for his ego or to make it larger alone.He did it when it was in his shareholders' interests.

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