Which findings should be published?∗ Alexander Frankel† Maximilian Kasy‡ December 5, 2020 Abstract Given a scarcity of journal space, what is the optimal rule for whether an empirical finding should be published? Suppose publications inform the public about a policy-relevant state. Then journals should publish extreme results, meaning ones that move beliefs sufficiently. This optimal rule may take the form of a one- or a two-sided test comparing a point estimate to the prior mean, with critical values determined by a cost-benefit analysis. Consideration of future studies may additionally justify the publication of precise null results. If one insists that standard inference remain valid, however, publication must not select on the study’s findings. Keywords: Publication bias, mechanism design, value of information JEL Codes: C44, D80, D83 1 Introduction Not all empirical findings get published. Journals may be more likely to publish findings that are statistically significant, as documented for instance by Franco et al. (2014), Brodeur et al. (2016), and Andrews and Kasy (2019). They may also be more likely to publish findings that are surprising, or conversely ones that confirm some prior belief. Whatever its form, selective publication distorts statistical inference. If only estimates with large effect sizes were to be written up and published, say, then ∗We thank Isaiah Andrews, Victoria Baranov, Ben Brooks, Gary Chamberlain, Zoe Hitzig, Emir Kamenica, Matthew Notowidigdo, Jesse Shapiro, and Glen Weyl for helpful discussions and com- ments. †University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Address: 5807 South Woodlawn Avenue Chicago, IL 60637. E-Mail:
[email protected]. ‡Department of Economics, Oxford University.