Environmental Scan Updated for Selected Data – July 2015 by M Pettitt, Ph.D., 23 July 2015
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Environmental Scan Updated for Selected Data – July 2015 By M Pettitt, Ph.D., 23 July 2015 Service Area – Tables 1 Through 4 1. SVC District County Population Changes, 2000 to 2015 2000 - 2010 2010 - 2015 Census Census Numerical Percent 2015 Numerical Percent 2000 2010 Change Change Estimate Change Change Skagit County 102,979 116,901 13,922 13.5% 120,620 3,719 3.2% Island County 71,558 78,506 6,948 9.7% 80,600 2,094 2.7% San Juan County 14,077 15,769 1,692 12.0% 16,180 411 2.6% Sources: US Census & Washington Office of Financial Management Note: OFM has not updated the projections displayed in Table 2 or 3 as of 7/22/15. 2. Population Projections by County in 5-Year Intervals, 2010-2040 Census Projections County 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Skagit 116,901 121,624 128,249 136,410 144,953 153,632 162,738 Island 78,506 80,337 82,735 85,073 87,621 90,239 93,205 San Juan 15,769 15,907 16,256 16,606 16,939 17,216 17,443 Source: Washington Office of Financial Management 3. Population Projections for SVC Counties by Age for 2010 – 2040 (Medium Series) Skagit County Age 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Total 116,901 121,624 128,249 136,410 144,953 153,632 162,738 0-4 7,597 7,734 8,182 8,528 8,881 9,335 9,947 5-9 7,414 7,761 8,097 8,719 9,139 9,573 10,099 10-14 7,696 7,555 8,019 8,529 9,257 9,771 10,296 15-19 8,052 7,626 7,544 8,163 8,774 9,576 10,158 20-24 6,580 6,681 6,331 6,419 7,080 7,661 8,456 25-29 7,320 7,619 7,733 7,287 7,373 8,066 8,716 30-34 6,784 7,474 8,009 8,447 8,078 8,275 9,111 35-39 6,804 6,621 7,580 8,310 8,908 8,605 8,845 1 40-44 7,024 6,890 6,594 7,715 8,520 9,193 8,919 45-49 7,940 7,093 7,034 6,836 8,043 8,927 9,668 50-54 8,571 8,283 7,306 7,330 7,175 8,464 9,430 55-59 8,504 8,933 8,674 7,741 7,819 7,704 9,143 60-64 7,739 8,806 9,464 9,279 8,331 8,457 8,344 65-69 5,972 7,677 9,165 9,948 9,810 8,863 9,034 70-74 4,287 5,518 7,457 8,971 9,782 9,713 8,827 75-79 3,271 3,730 4,909 6,691 8,123 8,871 8,846 80-84 2,656 2,603 2,986 3,957 5,432 6,633 7,275 85+ 2,690 3,020 3,165 3,540 4,428 5,945 7,624 Island County Age 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Total 78,506 80,337 82,735 85,073 87,621 90,239 93,205 0-4 4,542 4,650 4,881 4,933 4,976 5,128 5,400 5-9 4,338 4,473 4,672 4,953 5,093 5,172 5,347 10-14 4,518 4,213 4,415 4,666 5,032 5,208 5,305 15-19 4,615 4,240 4,004 4,253 4,568 4,990 5,199 20-24 5,157 5,341 4,935 4,754 5,057 5,431 5,917 25-29 5,023 5,567 5,732 5,268 5,050 5,363 5,732 30-34 4,121 4,696 5,348 5,569 5,244 5,073 5,459 35-39 4,053 3,807 4,507 5,240 5,544 5,281 5,126 40-44 4,412 3,692 3,387 4,133 4,975 5,241 5,044 45-49 5,251 4,368 3,679 3,410 4,234 5,111 5,421 50-54 5,730 5,410 4,435 3,778 3,556 4,427 5,332 55-59 6,206 6,354 6,015 4,976 4,264 4,063 5,087 60-64 6,101 6,575 6,878 6,561 5,461 4,693 4,496 65-69 4,994 5,636 6,390 6,746 6,491 5,445 4,700 70-74 3,500 4,340 5,142 5,855 6,255 6,056 5,086 75-79 2,475 2,972 3,730 4,421 5,096 5,486 5,326 80-84 1,718 2,005 2,344 2,939 3,481 4,084 4,402 85+ 1,752 1,998 2,241 2,618 3,244 3,987 4,826 San Juan County Age 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Total 15,769 15,907 16,256 16,606 16,939 17,216 17,443 0-4 539 486 543 600 632 642 641 5-9 647 572 534 619 676 710 714 10-14 776 674 627 601 686 758 786 15-19 746 741 669 623 602 693 778 20-24 511 653 663 614 587 577 663 25-29 589 614 768 767 717 664 670 30-34 668 642 697 926 944 880 810 35-39 730 672 689 761 1,048 1,078 995 40-44 841 777 716 746 846 1,150 1,176 2 45-49 1,124 859 816 763 794 896 1,238 50-54 1,398 1,184 892 856 820 857 964 55-59 1,707 1,533 1,303 999 958 929 951 60-64 1,836 1,807 1,655 1,412 1,109 1,071 1,044 65-69 1,382 1,742 1,785 1,665 1,428 1,121 1,099 70-74 892 1,245 1,642 1,686 1,561 1,370 1,093 75-79 558 781 1,096 1,438 1,478 1,403 1,221 80-84 373 451 634 875 1,149 1,198 1,136 85+ 452 474 527 655 904 1,219 1,464 Source: Washington Office of Financial Management Note: The data in Table 4 is the latest available (US Census, American Community Survey) 4. Educational Attainment by Age Cluster and County Skagit Island San Juan Population 18 to 24 years 9,873 7,057 748 Less than high school graduate 27.8% 14.1% 23.4% High school graduate (includes equivalency) 33.2% 38.5% 31.1% Some college or associate's degree 35.2% 44.1% 40.5% Bachelor's degree or higher 3.7% 3.3% 4.9% Population 25 years and over 80,383 55,826 12,631 Less than 9th grade 4.5% 1.4% 1.6% 9th to 12th grade, no diploma 7.3% 3.9% 3.8% High school graduate (includes equivalency) 25.7% 23.8% 17.2% Some college, no degree 28.0% 29.1% 26.2% Associate's degree 10.9% 10.0% 6.0% Bachelor's degree 14.7% 20.0% 25.1% Graduate or professional degree 8.9% 11.7% 20.0% Percent high school graduate or higher 88.2% 94.6% 94.5% Percent bachelor's degree or higher 23.6% 31.7% 45.1% Population 25 to 34 years 14,244 9,446 1,281 High school graduate or higher 83.5% 95.2% 83.8% Bachelor's degree or higher 18.2% 22.7% 22.8% Population 35 to 44 years 13,714 8,163 1,535 High school graduate or higher 85.6% 94.1% 92.8% Bachelor's degree or higher 18.9% 27.9% 38.1% Population 45 to 64 years 32,614 22,927 5,879 High school graduate or higher 91.9% 95.5% 95.4% Bachelor's degree or higher 26.4% 34.1% 42.8% 3 Population 65 years and over 19,811 15,290 3,936 High school graduate or higher 87.2% 93.2% 97.5% Bachelor's degree or higher 26.3% 35.9% 58.6% Median Earnings in the Past 12 months (in 2013 inflation-adjusted dollars); American Community Survey Estimates for 2013 Skagit Island San Juan Population 25 years and over with earnings $34,319 $36,932 $30,588 Less than high school graduate $21,434 $25,018 $25,313 High school graduate or equivalency $31,033 $32,905 $27,448 Some college or associate's degree $34,523 $33,607 $28,351 Bachelor's degree $48,213 $45,197 $31,770 Graduate or professional degree $59,594 $58,552 $41,555 Source: American Fact Finder, ACS 2009-13 http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/community_facts.xhtml#none 4 K-12 Trends – Tables 5 through 7 5. P-12 Enrollments by Grade and County, 2014 County P-12 K-12 PK Full K Half K Gr1 Gr2 Gr3 Gr4 Island Total 8,076 7,930 146 156 447 626 635 596 589 San Juan Total 1,941 1,925 16 23 121 133 158 149 181 Skagit Total 19,098 18,856 242 1,283 182 1,502 1,475 1,448 1,458 Grand Total 29,115 28,711 404 1,462 750 2,261 2,268 2,193 2,228 Gr5 Gr6 Gr7 Gr8 Gr9 Gr10 Gr11 Gr12 Island Total 588 540 611 589 619 601 635 698 San Juan Total 149 151 155 148 135 130 157 135 Skagit Total 1,392 1,381 1,341 1,451 1,435 1,436 1,478 1,594 Grand Total 2,129 2,072 2,107 2,188 2,189 2,167 2,270 2,427 P-12 Enrollments by County, 2012 & 2014 Numerical County 2012 2014 Diff.