CONTENTS 3

Contents

EDITORIAL Rebuilding the British dream Deputy editor’s letter Duncan Exley 23 Anvar Sarygulov 4 Through the glass ceiling Director’s note Virginia Crosbie 25 Ryan Shorthouse 5 Cease the intergenerational Letters to the editor 6 conflict Rachel Maclean MP 26 A CRUMBLING COUNTRY? The fast rise and fall of the two-party system BRIGHT BLUE POLITICS Professor John Curtice 7 Why I’m a Bright Blue MP A tale of two Englands The Rt Hon Nick Gibb MP 28 Professor Will Jennings 9 Research overview Taking back control? Sam Lampier 28 John Lamont MP 10 Tamworth Prize winner 2019 The invisible English Anya Nash 30 Professor John Denham 12 ARTS & BOOKS BETTER OVERSEAS? Enlightenment now A Europe comfortable with nation-states (Steve Pinker) Felix Dane 14 Ryan Shorthouse 32 Commonwealth 2.0 Cultural backlash: Trump, Brexit, and Lord Howell 15 authoritarian populism Divided, we will fall (Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart) Emerson Csorba 17 Anvar Sarygulov 33 Guilty past pleasures? The invisible killer: The rising global Dr Zareer Masani 19 threat of air pollution and how we can fight back MINORITIES NO MORE? (Gary Fuller) Bright Blue is an independent Limited extremes Will Nicolle 34 think tank and pressure group Helen Pluckrose 20 Future politics for liberal conservatism. Accessing talent (Jamie Susskind) Lord Holmes 21 Sam Robinson 35 Director: Ryan Shorthouse Chair: Matthew d’Ancona Board of Directors: Rachel Johnson, Alexandra Jezeph, Diane Banks, Page 7 Brexit is accelerating Phil Clarke & Richard Mabey the decline of the two-party system, argues Professor John Curtice Editor-in-chief: Ryan Shorthouse Deputy Editor: Anvar Sarygulov brightblue.org.uk Print: Aquatint | aquatint.co.uk Design: Chris Solomons EDITORIAL 4

Anvar Sarygulov is a Deputy editor’s letter Researcher at Bright Blue and Deputy Editor of Centre Write

t is impossible to dispute the importance of identity in our nationalism in the context of Brexit. lives. The feelings of attachment and belonging to a community, But our crisis of identity is not unique, with many western I a political movement, or simply a football team, are often countries grappling with similar political issues and cultural immensely powerful. They can move us to do great things, to be divides. Director of the UK division of the German think tank charitable and compassionate to others, to fight for a good cause. Konrad Adenauer Foundation Felix Dane (p.14) emphasises But ‘us’ has to be followed by ‘them’. Just as shared identity the importance of taking nation-states seriously across Europe, brings some of us closer together, it also creates divides with while the Ditchley Foundation’s Emerson Csorba (p.17) others. If these differences are understood, respected or, at the highlights the negative effect of identity politics on Canada. very least, tolerated, then we do not have to fear them. So what should be done? Editor of Areo Magazine, Helen Yet, such divides are now increasingly stretched into Pluckrose (p.20), argues that if we are to maintain an open and unbridgeable chasms by a large variety of forces. Understanding liberal society, we must look beyond the extremes of our political is replaced my mistrust, respect by fear, and tolerance by the opponents and avoid exaggerating and catastrophising about belief that there can be no compromise with ‘the other’. those who disagree with us. Meanwhile, Rachel Maclean MP As our acute political crisis is starting to feel like a chronic (p.26) calls for all of us to stop pitting social groups against condition, where fundamental clashes over identity are dominant, each other, such as the young against the elderly. this edition of Centre Write attempts to take a step back, to Yet, it is important to remember that many of our divides examine how we got here, and to offer some remedies to this continue to have real and significant consequences. Swimmer current state of affairs. and Paralympic Games winner, Lord Holmes (p.21), discusses Political scientist and electoral expert, Professor John the barriers that disabled people still face in Britain and how Curtice (p.7) explains how Brexit is now threatening to they can be addressed. And the former director of the Equality completely unravel our two-party system, while Professor Will Trust, Duncan Exley (p.23), thinks that we need to rethink Jennings (p.9) looks at longer term trends behind the vote, social mobility if we are to address our class and regional divides. emphasising the ever-widening gap between cities and towns. I hope this edition provides some food for thought on the Meanwhile, John Lamont MP (p.10) and Professor John many issues of identity that currently permeate our politics, Denham (p.12) discuss the trajectory of Scottish and English and are likely to continue to do so.

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Ryan Shorthouse is Director’s note the Founder and Director of Bright Blue and editor-in-chief of Centre Write

he centre-right is on the back foot did not materialise, why would Leave voters whether they stand for Remain or not, since in this country. The Conservative be persuaded of similar predictions with the policy of constructive ambiguity would T Government has failed to deliver its No Deal? be flattened. With Boris having a new overriding aim of recent years, Brexit. After A confirmatory referendum is likely to mandate and majority, the hope is that the nearly a decade in power, it is struggling be the condition and result of another EU might well blink and concede ground. to create or communicate a compelling significant Brexit extension beyond If it doesn’t, Boris has the numbers for No case for being in government. It is bleeding Halloween. But, I suspect, the showdown Deal anyway. supporters, largely to the Brexit Party, but will come earlier, in the guise of an election. also to the Liberal Democrats. Boris is the frontrunner for the Tory crown. “A final showdown to decide A new Conservative Prime Minister, with He has promised that we’ll be out of Britain’s fate with Europe, a better character and vision, does offer October, come what may. Don’t expect him between No Deal or No some hope. Don’t get carried away, though. to wiggle out of that, despite the absurd Brexit, is coming.” Brexit remains a gigantic block. Britain has hopes and prophecies of some of his become consumed and defined by it. It must newfound supporters. One positive from all of this: this be resolved first, before the Conservatives Since the EU won’t budge on the Irish election will probably, finally give Britain can think about securing a majority through backstop, which is a necessary part of freedom from the miserable and crippling a new programme of domestic reform. any withdrawal agreement barring the UK current Brexit stalemate. But a centre-right Sooner or later, there will be a realisation remaining part of the Customs Union, Boris government will then face bigger problems. that a final showdown to decide Britain’s will be leading this country to No Deal. The consequences of a deeply disruptive fate with Europe, between No Deal or No There are enough Tory MPs to ensure that and damaging No Deal. Further necessary Brexit, is coming. It is patently clear that a this parliament blocks such an outcome, and messy negotiation with the EU. And way forward cannot be found in this hung including a vote of no confidence in his public opinion and political discourse parliament. Frankly, parliamentarians should government. The inevitable outcome of that has become more receptive to leftist be ashamed that they have failed to agree this stranglehold over a Boris Government, thinking, both economically and culturally. to a compromise, forcing Britain with this then, is an election. Our social identity has become much incredibly divisive and disappointing choice. An election, in fact, is likely to come more important in influencing political Years of political energy have been wasted. sooner than many people think. Boris might opinions and votes. In different Western An inability to give ground, to settle on a be persuaded that the best strategy is to countries, voters are increasingly divided softer Brexit, could very well come to haunt get on the front foot and call an election by age, gender, educational attainment Remainers. Playing politics to undermine immediately upon assuming office. That and ethnicity, rather than the traditional Theresa May’s Government, or to hold way, he can stand as the candidate for cleavage of socio-economic class. tight in the hope of overturning the 2016 Brexit, seeking a mandate for a final-hour From this, ‘identity politics’, admittedly referendum result, may have seemed clever renegotiation with the EU before October an often ill-defined and over-used term, in the short-term, but the long-term impact and, if that fails, No Deal. has intensified, unhelpfully pitting social of this strategy could be very costly indeed. Polling suggests he could hoover up groups against one another. Sinisterly, from In the final showdown – an election or a Brexit Party supporters and defeat Jeremy the extreme right, this is usually on ethnic confirmatory referendum – No Deal could Corbyn, giving him a convincing majority. or national grounds. But, from the political well win. Since forecasts of economic And, cunningly, this will cause problems left, the well-intended but simplistic disaster following the 2016 referendum for Labour, who will have to finally choose intersectional thesis of there simply being EDITORIAL 6

>> strong and weak, powerful and a result of discrimination. But critics also to find a way of quietening the influence of powerless, social groups in society is have a point: there is a creeping tendency our social identity on individual psychology, increasingly gaining traction. to define oneself, and judge others, based perceptions, relationships, decisions and Supporters of such leftist identity on social group membership. This can be activities in life. This is a road to greater politics do have a point: individuals of highly illiberal and unjust, restrictive of how – more profound – individual liberty, a certain social groups have historically we view not only others, but ourselves. positive vision for the centre-right in this faced – and still do, sadly – injustices as The desired end-state, surely, should be new age of identity.

Letters to In his piece (‘There, when we need it most…’, Autumn the editor 2018), Revd Mike Long does extremely well in explaining the value of religious experience as an incredibly strong factor for social cohesion. Based on his first-hand experience of Grenfell, Send your letters to [email protected] Revd Mike Long rightly asserts the undeniable power of faith, regardless of the contingent tradition or confession, in uniting people and helping them find common purpose. Hence, the work of faith-based organisations is indispensable if we are to succeed in promoting a society where the sense of community is stronger. It seems to be the case, as Revd Mike Long points out, that the role of religion is not as private as some would like it to be; to its adherents, at least, it has clear social ramifications. In a turbulent climate of uncertainty, then, we would all do well in rethinking the great potential of faith in contributing to a stronger social fabric.

Arturo Morselli Bright Blue member

I applaud Tim Farron MP’s defence of people’s right to It was refreshing to see Mohammed Amin’s piece on prejudice hold a variety of religious beliefs in your last issue (‘Faithful to towards Muslims (‘An end to Islamophobia’, Autumn 2018), as politics?’, Autumn 2018). Appealing to John Stuart Mill, Tim the author takes such a firm moral stance. Farron MP provided a robust defence of a truly liberal attitude As he commented, hate spreads easily and results in all to religious beliefs where the ‘pluralistic’ nature of personal sort of domestic problems. More rage and radicalisation are beliefs is upheld and where it is possible to hold views which the least this country needs now. And by tackling the hostility diverge from the norm. Tim Farron MP warned against a that this minority faces, the Conservative Party will positively consensus being set by ‘liberal elites’ of disdain for religion affect not only Britain but the party itself, considering the large and individual belief. fraction of the electorate that is expecting a strong position on Perhaps if Tim Farron MP had articulated his belief in this issue. classical liberalism during his leadership of the Liberal As mentioned by Mohammed Amin, the party already Democrats in this way, questions around his own personal had some progress with Muslims in the 2015 election and it faith would have not dogged him in the way they did. certainly can repeat such success in the future.

Matthew Sachak Bright Blue member Leonardo Vizioli Bright Blue member A CRUMBLING COUNTRY? 7

The fast rise and fall of the John Curtice is Professor of Politics, two-party system Strathclyde University, and Senior Research Fellow at the NatCen Even before the European elections, the failure to deliver Brexit this Social Research and The March was proving to be a turning point for the two main parties, UK in a Changing Europe argues Professor John Curtice

ne of the most remarkable EU referendum. Yet, even though the Labour with a difficult balancing act too – features of the last General 2017 general election was meant to be in its case on top of existing divisions and O Election was how the about Brexit, UKIP’s vote collapsed while tensions generated by divergent attitudes Conservatives and Labour between the Liberal Democrats barely registered towards Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. them managed to dominate the electoral any recovery at all from the slump in their Nevertheless, for more than a year after scene. Over four in five (82%) of all votes fortunes that had occurred in 2015. the 2017 general election the country’s cast were given to one or other of those However, a look underneath the surface two parties appeared to be maintaining two parties, a higher proportion than at raised questions about the idea that the the large coalitions they had assembled in any election since 1970. After years of two-party system had returned. Despite 2017. On the eve of the unveiling in mid- appearing to be under threat, it seemed the ambiguity in their positions on the November 2018 of the draft withdrawal that the country’s two-party system had subject, voters appeared to be using a treaty between the UK and the EU, the two suddenly been restored to rude health. vote for either the Conservatives or Labour parties stood in the polls at 39% apiece This development was all the more to express their views about Brexit. This in Great Britain, in both cases just down a surprising given the backdrop against was particularly evident in the pattern of little on their performance in 2017. which the general election was being support for the Conservatives, who gained However, as Parliament continued fought – the debate about Brexit. This is a ground among those who had voted Leave, incessantly to debate Brexit but failed to subject on which opinion cuts across the including not least many a voter who had reach a conclusion, so support for both distinction between ‘left’ and ‘right’ that backed UKIP in 2015, whereas they lost the Conservatives and Labour began to fall typically divides Labour and Conservative ground among those who had backed away. By the time the original deadline for supporters. Consequently, both parties Remain. As a result, the party garnered leaving the EU was approaching, support found that their voters were divided in the an electorate whose views on running for the Conservatives had fallen by three EU referendum. Although on balance those the economy were often at odds with points to 36%, while Labour’s had dropped who had voted Conservative backed Leave those of the party’s traditional allies in big even further – by five points to just 34%. In over Remain in the 2016 referendum, business, creating a potential tension in the Labour’s case, it is debatable how far the still as many as two in five voted Remain. Conservative coalition. party’s loss was occasioned by its stance Similarly, although most Labour supporters Labour, in contrast, did manage to on Brexit. The party’s support fell among backed Remain, a substantial minority of increase its support both amongst those both Remainers and Leavers, suggesting around one in three supported Leave. who voted Leave and those who voted that either voters in both groups were Unsurprisingly, therefore, Brexit was Remain. Even so, the increase was unhappy with its handling of Brexit, or that not a subject about which either party felt markedly greater among those who had the issue was less important than another it possible to be dogmatic about during backed Remain. That helped ensure development, that is, an intensification of the 2017 election campaign, as they tried that the party was highly popular among the row about Jeremy Corbyn’s handling to keep their divided supporters together. younger voters and the single most popular of allegations of antisemitism in the This was in stark contrast to UKIP, nearly choice of university graduates. However, party. Indeed, this row contributed to the all of whose voters had backed Leave the party’s Leave-inclined voters were to be defection of eight Labour MPs to form a and which was clearly in favour of a ‘hard’ found disproportionately among the party’s new Independent Group now known as Brexit, or indeed to the stance adopted by more working-class supporters, a group ‘Change UK’. the traditionally pro-EU Liberal Democrats whose interests the party above all seeks In the case of the Conservatives, who were already in favour of a second to represent. Brexit therefore presented however, there was little doubt that the A CRUMBLING COUNTRY? 8

>> drop in the party’s support represented incumbent government a kicking and to election since Labour first started fighting an early sign that the coalition it had vote for smaller parties, and especially elections on a nationwide basis in 1918. gathered at the 2017 election was at risk of those articulating a Eurosceptic point of However, this result was obtained unravelling in the wake of the government’s view. Moreover, the man who had made in the very particular circumstances of inability to deliver Brexit. All of the fall in the UKIP such a formidable Eurosceptic force a European election when voters are party’s support between mid-November before the 2016 referendum. Nigel Farage, more likely to support smaller parties. 2018 and March 2019 occurred among had returned to the electoral fray as the The key question is what the outcome those who had voted Leave in 2016. Much head of the newly-formed Brexit Party. of the European elections portends for of this loss was to UKIP whose support In the event, what hitherto been a Westminster. rose by two points to 7%. stream of defections away from both the Not as bad as in the European However, once the Government had Conservatives became a flood. Over a elections, but bad enough. That, at least, failed to meet its target of leaving the EU half of those who voted Conservative is the immediate message from the polls. on 29 March, what once might be regarded in 2017 switched to the Brexit Party in The first ones taken in the immediate wake as a trickle came to look more like a steady the European election, nearly all of them of the European election have on average stream. Within less than a fortnight support people who had voted Leave in 2016 and put Labour on 24% and the Conservatives for the Conservatives had fallen by another who felt the UK should have left the EU on on 20%. Whereas once the Conservatives six points, with much (though not all) of March 29 come what may. However, now enjoyed the support of over half of those this further loss occurring among those the party was also losing the confidence who voted Leave, now only around a who voted Leave. Again, the principal of many of those who voted Remain, with quarter do so, and it is the Brexit Party beneficiaries were UKIP, together with the one in five of those who voted Conservative that dominates among Eurosceptic voters. nascent Brexit Party, which enjoyed a further switching to one of the pro-second Similarly, where once the Labour party was four-point increase in support to 11% – not referendum parties, most notably the backed by a half of Remain voters, now far short of what UKIP achieved in 2015. Liberal Democrats. only around a third do so, no more than are Many UKIP supporters had switched to Meanwhile, Labour’s apparent opting to back the Liberal Democrats. the Conservatives in 2017 because they difficulties in maintaining the coalition of Still, one might wonder how durable thought that doing so was the best way of Remain and Leave supporters that it had such figures might be. As the European ensuring that Brexit would happen. Once been trying to keep together through a election fades in voters’ memory, might the Conservative party had failed to deliver, stance that combined support for Brexit not its impact simply wear off? Maybe. much of that vote was at risk of switching in principle while keeping open the Except that the issue that has exposed back again. Labour certainly did not profit possibility of submitting the issue to a the fragility of their respective electoral from this first signs of a potential collapse second referendum intensified. Among its coalitions two years ago – Brexit – is in Tory support – the party’s vote simply Leave voters, the party found itself being unlikely to go away soon. Moreover, as we remained at 36%, and thus the combined challenged by the Brexit Party, and lost have seen, both Conservative and Labour tally of support for the two largest parties around one in eight of its 2017 voters in support had been falling in the wake of the had now slipped below the two-thirds mark. that direction in the European election. Brexit impasse well before the European Thus, even before it became clear At the same time, it also lost a lot more elections (or Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party) that the UK was going to have to hold ground – amounting to more than 40% of had come anywhere close to the horizon. European Parliament elections, there its support in 2017 – to those parties that In short, while the immediate impact of the were clear warning signs of what might were unambiguously arguing for a second European election on the standing of the happen. Voters had already shown signs referendum. parties might well fade somewhat, there of melting away from both parties in the Thus, when the ballot boxes were is little reason to anticipate that the status wake of the Brexit impasse. Meanwhile, opened the Conservatives found quo ante will be easily or readily restored. a European Parliament election provided themselves with just 9% of the vote, The Conservatives and Labour both an electoral environment in which voters while Labour fared little better with 14%. rode the Brexit tiger successfully in 2017. were especially likely to express whatever Between them the two parties now However, the failure to resolve Brexit concerns they had about the parties’ commanded the support of just 23% of has now made the ride a much more stance on and handling of Brexit. Such those who voted, a far cry from the 82% uncomfortable one. As a result, Britain’s elections have long since been occasions that had done so two years earlier, and by two-party system now looks rather fragile when voters are more willing to give the far the lowest proportion recorded in any once more. A CRUMBLING COUNTRY? 9

Will Jennings is Professor A tale of two Englands of Political Science and Public Policy at the University of Southampton As fortunes diverge between towns and cities, so too do their politics, writes Professor Will Jennings

he Brexit vote and 2017 general election exposed the deepening T geographical divide in British politics: between places that have prospered in a globalised knowledge economy – predominantly major cities – and those on the periphery, towns and rural areas. In the referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU, core cities tended to vote Remain, while towns – with the exception of university towns – tended to vote Leave. In the 2017 general election, Labour made large gains in cities, picking up wins in constituencies such as Kensington and Chelsea, while the Conservatives experienced substantial swings in towns, taking seats like Mansfield and Walsall North against the tide of the focused in peripheral rural areas and post- from high rates of deprivation and health national swing. industrial towns. problems, as well as lower levels of social These political divisions map onto mobility. “The growing division patterns of relative decline, driven by These divergent demographic between cities and towns long-term processes of social and trajectories underpin differences in values is creating opportunities economic change. Deindustrialisation, and identities: on average, the sorts of for a politics of resentment economic agglomeration, the expansion people who live in towns tend to be more to take hold, driven by of higher education and immigration socially conservative, uncomfortable with populist attacks on the have all contributed to a fundamental social change and are more likely to identify political and economic fracturing in the demography of towns as English. While city-dwellers tend to ‘establishment’.” and cities in Britain. Major cities are be more socially liberal on issues such becoming younger, more ethnically as same-sex marriage or immigration and Similar dynamics are apparent in the diverse, more educated and better able more plural in their sense of identity. USA, where support for the Democratic to exploit opportunities afforded them by A recent report by Hope Not Hate Party is increasingly concentrated in creative, knowledge and digital sectors, with the Centre for Towns mapped out densely populated urban areas, while even when substantial parts of their some of these deep divides. Concern the Republicans have made advances – population are in precarious work. At the or hostility towards immigration was highest most notably in the 2016 US Presidential same time, the populations of towns are in the former industrial towns and isolated election – across rural and small-town aging, less diverse, and possess lower coastal communities that have experienced America. In Europe, too, support for radical levels of skills and education. Coastal and sustained economic decline. Major cities right populist parties has often been post-industrial towns in particular suffer and university towns were much more A CRUMBLING COUNTRY? 10

>> welcoming and embracing of diversity. university campuses – egged on by certain position on Brexit increasingly is putting While public disaffection with politics – parts of the media – will only exacerbate its support in its city strongholds at risk and the political class in Westminster – is the party’s lagging performance with among Remainers, who are turning to the widespread, it intensifies the further away younger, more socially liberal voters. alternatives offered by the more clearly pro- one gets from London. Similarly, people European Greens and Liberal Democrats – from towns are more likely to believe “Coastal and post-industrial as was demonstrated to devastating effect that politicians don’t care about them or towns in particular in the recent elections to the European their area. As such, the growing division suffer from high rates of Parliament. between cities and towns is creating deprivation and health While these geographical divides make opportunities for a politics of resentment to problems, as well as lower it increasingly difficult for any party to take hold, driven by populist attacks on the levels of social mobility.” construct broad electoral coalitions, the political and economic ‘establishment’. underlying demographic fractures are also How can the political parties buck these At the same time, the Conservatives creating divergent sets of policy problems. trends and build a wider base of support? need to deliver for those places that With ageing populations, shortages in Neither party can afford to ignore those have increasingly turned to them skills and qualifications, and poor transport places and people where it has been losing following extended periods of decline. connections, many towns face acute ground. The Conservative Party quickly There otherwise is a risk that further problems in terms of public services, needs to find a way to enhance its appeal disappointment will lead many voters to look pressure on social and health care, and to younger professionals comfortable with to other parties, or simply stay at home. structural obstacles to economic growth. social change and more liberal in their The Labour Party, on the other hand, Cities also face a distinct set of challenges outlook. Doing so in the context of Brexit faces substantial challenges in rebuilding in terms of the cost of housing, congestion, will be extremely tricky, especially since their appeal in towns to older, working- and sizeable localised inequalities. Without it threatens to undermine the reputation class voters suspicious of the party’s rebalancing our national approach to of the party for competent handling of record on immigration, the economy and economic growth there is a risk that the economy. Becoming distracted with its ability to speak to the re-emergence the political divides discussed here will US-style culture wars and hyped-up of Englishness as a political identity. At deepen – leaving our politics increasingly controversies over freedom of speech on the same time, Labour’s fudging of its fragmented and volatile.

John Lamont MP is a Taking back control? member of the Scottish Affairs Select Committee

Brexit is not strengthening but weakening the case for Scottish independence, observes John Lamont MP

ike many people across the UK, it the result had been declared, the First Her political calculation was that she took me some time to digest the Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, would be able to exploit the fact that the L news that was breaking on the hastily called a press conference at Bute majority of Scots voted to Remain to get morning of the 24th June, 2016. Whatever House, her official Edinburgh residence. her flagging campaign to break up Britain side of the argument you were on, the She stood in front of assembled media back up and running. result of the EU referendum was a surprise and declared that a second referendum This press conference has set the to most people. on Scottish independence was now firmly tone for the political debate in Scotland However, one person in the UK wasted back on the table, asserting that Scots since. The SNP have time and time again no time to jump on the vote, so sure were so outraged about leaving the EU confidently asserted that Brexit makes was she of the implications. As soon as they would now want to leave the UK. Scottish independence much more likely. A CRUMBLING COUNTRY? 11

>> At every available opportunity they And in 2017, the First Minister’s And because the UK is a market worth have sought to utilise Brexit to argue the impulsive reaction to Brexit resulted in her four times more to Scottish businesses only option is to leave the UK. It is almost losing a third of her MPs, including Alex than the EU, Brexit would look like a a weekly occurrence for the First Minister Salmond and former SNP leader Angus walk in the park compared to leaving the or one of her senior Ministers to repeat Robertson, both to Scottish Conservatives UK. And unlike with the EU, Scotland is that Brexit makes Scottish independence like myself campaigning against another a significant net beneficiary to the UK, a sure thing. independence referendum. And the closer meaning independence would result in an After the EU referendum, a re- we get to Brexit, the more support for instant hit to public finances, even if trade energised SNP embarked on a nationwide independence falls. was miraculously left unaffected. campaign to sell their new independence Time and time again I listen to message. They commissioned a so-called “Most Scots are, to use speeches from SNP Members of ‘Growth Commission’, led by economist a good Scottish phrase, Parliament outlining how damaging leaving Andrew Wilson, to refresh the hugely scunnered by the endless the EU would be for Scotland. Yet, in discredited economic case for leaving the constitutional debate.” the same breath, they argue in favour of UK which Scots rejected in 2014. leaving the United Kingdom. Unpicking Given the First Minister’s confidence, The SNP clearly miscalculated that more than 300 years’ worth of political, an outside observer might be led to Brexit would push people towards economic and fiscal union would be a conclude that Scottish independence independence. So, why are Scots still huge undertaking, much more substantial is a likely outcome of Brexit. But three backing the United Kingdom? There are, than Brexit. So people look back on the years on from that Bute House press in my mind, two main reasons: first, many SNP’s claim in 2014 that independence conference that is not how things have independence supporters actually want could be negotiated and delivered in 18 turned out. to leave the EU. The SNP kept a tight lid months and realise that this was complete on them during the EU referendum, but nonsense. In many ways, Brexit makes the “Unpicking more than since then, senior figures such as former argument for leaving the UK much weaker 300 years’ worth of deputy leader of the SNP Jim Sillars have and that is something the SNP leadership political, economic and been vocal supporters of leaving the EU. misjudged back in 2016. fiscal union would be a A NatCen report found that over a third of huge undertaking, much SNP voters backed Brexit. “At a time when the political more substantial than This makes sense; pro-Brexit Scottish establishment in the UK Brexit.” nationalists are at least consistent. Why is consumed by Brexit would you campaign for Holyrood to have and the nationalists Poll after poll shows that support for more powers, only to want to hand large are focused entirely on Scottish independence is actually falling, parts of them back to Brussels? The independence, support for despite the SNP’s best efforts. One of impact of the SNP’s posturing on Brexit the SNP’s cause is falling, the most recent, commissioned by former has been that many of these voters have not rising.” SNP MP Angus Robertson, showed stopped supporting independence. support for the Union is up to 62%. At The second reason that support for Most Scots continue to support a time when the political establishment independence is falling is that most remaining part of the UK, but that in the UK is consumed by Brexit and Scots are, to use a good Scottish phrase, could change. The SNP should not be the nationalists are focused entirely on scunnered by the endless constitutional underestimated. They have an army of independence, support for the SNP’s debate. The vast majority of my highly motivated volunteers and everything cause is falling, not rising. constituents, whether they voted Leave their politicians do is designed to try to The SNP’s ‘Growth Commission’ came or Remain, just want Brexit to happen so boost support for independence. back with the conclusion that leaving we can talk about something else. And While we must continue to highlight the UK would result in an extra ten years the last thing they want their politicians to the weaknesses of the SNP’s argument, of austerity, far beyond anything the UK be focusing on is another debate about the focus for politicians who want the UK Government has imposed, and it has breaking up the United Kingdom. to survive and thrive must be on showing now been quietly shelved by the SNP If Brexit has shown us anything it is that Scots how they benefit from remaining leadership. leaving a political union is challenging. part of the UK. A CRUMBLING COUNTRY? 12

John Denham is The invisible English Professor of Knowledge Exchange at the University of Winchester. He was Professor John Denham thinks those who regard themselves as previously Communities English, rather than British, are the ‘left behind’ who voted Brexit Secretary and Business Secretary in the last Labour Government

t’s a paradox. England and the English are in countries where EU membership has – and the Official Opposition, the Greens, ever present in our culture and politics. not been a central issue. Hope Not Hate Liberal Democrats and Change UK all IThey shaped the momentous decision polling says that 68% say no political party barely acknowledge England at all. of Brexit. Yet England – as England – is speaks for them. Meanwhile, 55% think This refusal to acknowledge England as barely mentioned in our national political the political system is broken. And, just as a political nation comes from the unfinished debate. If English identity is discussed, it is a reminder that the left-right divide has not journey England and the Union are making to be disparaged and abused as nationalist, gone away, 76% think politicians put the from a Britain at the heart of Empire to proto-imperialist or racist. interests of big business before theirs. the haphazard construction of a post- Feeling marginalised, not having a imperial state. “These English Leave voice, sensing your identity is under threat: This legacy is what I call the voters would rather turn all of these sentiments are pregnant with ‘presumption of unionism’: a hangover from their back on the Union, disruptive political potential. the unitary imperial state that says that the let alone demand a new But why talk about England? way our constitution is currently ordered empire, to get England a England outside London voted Leave. is the only way that it can be ordered. fair deal.” Those who identify as English were most Deep in political consciousness is the likely to vote Leave. Voters with the same idea that the UK should govern England Brexit has revealed a deeply divided demographics voted Remain in Scotland from London; that the national identity of nation, but England’s divisions were not and Leave in England. The social divisions England should be British; that to question created by Brexit. We’ve been growing are widest in England. Many liberal and the constitution, governance and identity apart for years; along fault lines of non-English commentators blame the of England is a distraction from ‘the things geography, age, class, wealth, education English and English nationalism for Brexit. that people really care about’; and that and race. We are not one single nation, Leavers say they wanted sovereignty; but the maintenance of the Union depends on united by a broadly similar experience of life where does that sovereignty lie? England being denied its nationhood. and a shared view of the world. England is a nation of multiple identities. We experience the world differently and “The ‘more British’ are For most people, English and British see the world differently. We have come to in the cities and the identities are intertwined, but they have believe in different things, to hold different ‘more English’ in smaller different meanings, and we combine them values, to live in different places, with communities. English differently. As we track across our mixed different experiences and expectations. But identity is emphasised identities from ‘English not British’ through if we have been growing apart for years, we by those least happy ‘equally English and British’ to ‘British not should drop any pretence that things will with the economic and English’, the overall picture is clear. simply return to normal if or when we put social change of the last Towards the English end of the Brexit behind us. Unresolved, our divisions decades.” spectrum we find people who are more will disrupt politics for the foreseeable rooted in a locality – a town, county or future and on issues unrelated to Europe. Fundamentally, England is a divided region. This, incidentally, explains the The political forces that academics nation, and a divided nation lacks the multifarious nature of Englishness; why Professors Matthew Goodwin and Roger shared values and aspirations that can English people will often also stress Eatwell call ‘national populism’ have deliver for the common good. Yet the UK that they are from Yorkshire, Devon or disrupted politics across Europe, including government – the Government of England Birmingham. It is not a monochrome A CRUMBLING COUNTRY? 13

>> identity, but a shared national identity built on local roots. The more English have the strongest sense of distinct English political interests, are patriotic and associate their identity with positive characteristics.

“It was the England that wants its own parliament, does not feel well represented, and wants fair funding that was most attracted by ‘take back control’.”

At the British end we find people who are less rooted in any part of England, more likely to be European, and are less patriotic, have less pride in their identity and are more likely to reject Englishness completely. The ‘more British’ are in the cities and the ‘more English’ in smaller communities. English identity is emphasised by those least happy with the economic and social change of the last decades. This is reflected in the politics of our different identities. The people who most emphasise their English identity are not, generally, the people who are in power in England. They live in the ‘wrong’ places, they’ve had the ‘wrong’ education, they Of course, many Leavers will have clung and wants fair funding that was most are, largely, the ‘wrong’ class, and they to ideas of England standing alone; these attracted by ‘take back control’. It was the hold socially conservative rather than liberal ideas of the nation have been inculcated same people who in 2015 feared SNP metropolitan values. These are not, by in stories from the Armada to Dunkirk. influence on a hung parliament and gave and large, the people we find in powerful Historic myths can be genuinely inspiring. Cameron his majority. positions in corporate business, politics, But, as poor history, they can also be the media or academia. a poor guide to our real nature, and a “This refusal to acknowledge It is Britishness – an outlook widely hindrance to engaging with a changing England as a political shared amongst the political class – that is world. Denied any national forum, and nation comes from the all too often the badge of power. national debate about its own identity, unfinished journey England There is no evidence that English leave England, alone of the nations of the UK, and the Union are making voters support the ‘greater British’ unionism has had no chance to question whether from a Britain at the heart conjured up by Anglo-centric Brexiteers like these stories work so well for us today; no of Empire to the haphazard Boris Johnson, nor the proto-imperialism opportunity to reimagine itself as a modern construction of a post- imagined by those who blame ‘English twenty-first century nation. imperial state.” nationalism’ for Brexit. Indeed, there is no England’s role in Brexit was to grasp political nationalism of any significance. the chance to express these suppressed Brexit – however disruptive – was These English Leave voters would rather turn demands for identity and sovereignty. a demand to be heard and that’s why their back on the Union, let alone demand a It was the England that wants its own it should light the fuse for England’s new empire, to get England a fair deal. parliament, does not feel well represented, democratic moment. BETTER OVERSEAS? 14

Felix Dane is the Director A Europe comfortable with of Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS) UK nation-states and Ireland

There is a difference between patriotism and nationalism, says Felix Dane

his is the Age of Identity. In the US, sentiments, that the ‘End of History’, as patriotic sentiment, but above all exploiting conflicting visions of Americana Professor Francis Fukuyma famously wrote, the vacuum left by centre-ground politics – T jostle with one another. The desire is over, and that these sentiments occur thereby making the nationalist feel heard. to ‘Make America Great Again’ can be seen because people are afraid, and because as the claiming of an identity, harkening they are seduced by the strongman talk of “Not only is the search for back to an undefined time perceived as security which the radical populist offers. identity a human trait – better and more American. Maybe nationalism is a crisis of identity. from the tribal fighter to In Britain, Brexit has given rise to a Maybe the reaction to change and the keyboard warrior – but similar hypothetical nostalgia, which is modernity, globalism and multiculturalism, it is also a positive trait.” ultimately founded in identity. This was epitomised in the feeling of ‘left- particularly clear in the debates at the time behindness’, has led people to a narrow The more concerned voices inveigh of the EU referendum. reactionary focus on nation, history, and against nationalism, equating it with racism past, tinged with fear of the other. Maybe and ignorance, the more it will intensify. “The patriot is but a this is a brutish sectarian urge which can be Those being seduced by the populists will nationalist who feels understood merely by analysing the latent find themselves ever more pushed away by heard and unafraid.” racism and xenophobia of its proponents. the political centre, and pushed together. Without denying the clear reality of the And few things strengthen in-group identity In the wider sociocultural sphere, in globalisation pushback, I believe such a more than out-group rejection. which identity politics reigns supreme, view is neither sensible nor justified. Is this to say that the rise of right-wing disparate elements attempt to define For not only is the search for identity a radicalism and anti-European sentiment themselves with regard to their group human trait – from the tribal fighter to the is to be welcomed? No. No more than identity, for example gender-related, or of keyboard warrior – but it is also a positive left-wing radicalism, or religious radicalism. sexual orientation. trait. It is how we form relationships and The seductive and ruthless simplicity Meanwhile, third generation immigrants, care about groups wider than our own of radicalism is rarely the answer to a and others, are being seduced by moral- immediate circle. Besides which, the multifaceted world full of individuals with religious identities that appear to grant pure global citizen, unmarred by any form differing viewpoints and experiences. them purpose and meaning; some then of national, religious or social identity, History has shown us this, both on the leave Europe to become terrorist fighters. entirely adrift, un-anchored in community, political left and the right, both in the The rise of nationalistic movements is a character that does not exist, and I secular and religious domain. within Europe fits squarely within this wonder whether he or she would have any The EU needs reform. And this reform very human behavioural pattern. Italy’s opinions, morals, or beliefs if they did. cannot overlook nation-states: they provide Salvini has mentioned a desire to return Not enough has been made of the democratic legitimacy and identification. to Europe’s Judeo-Christian roots, while difference between patriotism and The EU, despite flag, anthem and Poland’s Morawiecki warned that without nationalism. Yet, the patriot is but a constitution, has not quite succeeded resistance, “Europe will no longer belong nationalist who feels heard and unafraid; to offer a sense of common identity. The to Europeans.” the nationalist, thus, an unheard frightened ideology of ever-closer union and vilification We hear in the media that, following patriot. Which brings us to populism. of nationalism has alienated many in a long period of integration, we are now The populist offers radical solutions, Europe, and made them wary of the EU. witnessing a return to instinctive national capitalising on fear, and exploiting the So. how should Europe respond to the BETTER OVERSEAS? 15

>> rise in nationalism? Each European state has to address the in attitude towards those that feel unheard. With intelligent analysis and an open rise in nationalism individually, with actions Turn the nationalist into a bogeyman and attitude for reform. With tolerance for ranging from reinstating national service, he will vote for a radical populist. Be willing diversity of all kinds – including of opinion. to addressing inequality, to increasing to review one’s own actions and listen to A simple democratic remedy: listening the political education of the citizenry, their concerns, and they will vote for the rationally to the concerns of the people, to opening the debate on migration and political centre. And that makes for a better and acting dispassionately upon them. border control. But above all with a change Europe for all.

Lord Howell of Guildford Commonwealth 2.0 is the Chairman of the International Relations Committee and the The Commonwealth should be central to the UK’s future foreign policy, President of the Royal Lord Howell argues Commonwealth Society

he current Western preoccupation most other multinational or supranational statistics fail to pick up. is the relationship with China. structures, such as the EU, and not even The British establishment has T What are the Chinese giant’s true primarily a conventional intergovernmental been dismally slow to perceive this intentions as its networks snake through organisation. transformation, still half convinced that its every continent and into the heart of main trade interests lie in shipping goods Europe and of the British economy? Is it “Nations we used to think to Europe and America, with the rest of the friend or foe, and how should we react? we were teaching now world as an afterthought. This would not Much less attention gets given to a have much to teach us.” matter if the old twentieth century view of far bigger trans-continental network in the Commonwealth nations, as a string of which, more by accident of history rather In fact, in its modern form, it is almost low income societies, politically immature than blueprint design or strategy, Britain entirely a product of the digital age of and in need of assistance from time to happens to be deeply embedded – the connectivity and the communications time under royal patronage, was still even fifty-three nation Commonwealth of 2.4 revolution. Measuring it by the old vaguely accurate. billion people. standards of trade and investment flows, or conventional diplomatic relations “The time may well be “A nation recovering from between governments, fails to show what approaching when the divisive trauma of is happening and where its enormous global presence on the Brexit badly needs a story potential lies. high seas may best be and a purpose as it seeks The nature of international trade and organised through joint to re-position itself in the business has now changed fundamentally, Commonwealth naval new global power pattern.” with services, knowledge products and power in Commonwealth data flows rivalling traditional physical war-and-peace ships.” The reason analysts and commentators commerce. This now puts a premium find it so hard to focus on the modern on soft power relationships, such as But this picture could now be hardly Commonwealth is that nothing like this educational and cultural networks, further from the truth. The Commonwealth has ever existed before. This is not common working language, agreed today includes a dozen of the fastest the old British Empire, not the British business standards, common law growing economies in the world and the Commonwealth of the last century, not procedures, tight cooperation in science, largest prospective middle-income markets some kind of hierarchy with Britain at its medicine and technology, and a thousand of all times. Many of them are now part of a hub or centre, not remotely comparable to other familiarising links which trade new Asia: of increasingly converging BETTER OVERSEAS? 16

>> business structures and rising global has its patchwork of rich and poor. This seeks to re-position itself in the new global impact. Whether or not they are on good pattern, too, may be changing fast as power pattern. terms with the biggest of all, China, their nations like Bangladesh or Kenya move Inside today’s Commonwealth system, economies are becoming steadily more up into digital and online maturity at Britain can now find a dual new role, one interwoven as they look eastwards rather speeds which seemed impossible only part concerned with survival, and the other than to the West. a decade ago. Certainly, this still leaves with national direction and purpose. a long tail of smaller states needing help The markets of Asia, Africa and Latin “This is not the old British and support of the most tailored kind, not America, once called the developing Empire, not the British least in combatting environmental and world but now acquiring a new status and Commonwealth of the last climate challenges which come in many momentum, are the ones in which Britain century, not some kind of different forms. This is precisely the kind must succeed to survive and to which our hierarchy with Britain at its of assistance that the Commonwealth, whole economy must be regeared. And the hub or centre.” and Britain in particular, can provide, in struggling smaller island and coastal states more focussed forms than grandiose UN of the Commonwealth, and the hundreds of The Asian Development Bank estimates programmes. millions still without clean water, sanitation that of the $30 trillion of consumption As British connections with the rest of or electricity, present the forum in which growth in world markets due between now neighbouring Europe are re-ordered, and Britain can exercise its worldwide duties, and 2030, a mere £1 trillion will come as the bedrock relationship with the United pour out its talent and resources, and from the Western economies. In 1990, States starts looking less reliable, the old fulfil its global mission. more than 60% of the people of East Asia jibe about Britain being left without a role Somehow the policymakers of Britain lived in extreme poverty. As of 2018, that again begins to be heard. Yet a nation must shake off their old, Western- proportion had dropped to 3%. recovering from the divisive trauma of Brexit oriented mindset and understand where Of course, today’s Commonwealth, badly needs a story and a purpose as it the new priorities now lie. It has taken BETTER OVERSEAS? 17

>> them a long time to get their heads a larger economy than Britain, is the key to spirit of respect and some contrition after round this completely new situation, with the new situation. Trade itself is only one decades of disregard and neglect. Nations the penny beginning to drop in many part of the story. Linking Britain’s big aid we used to think we were teaching now official quarters only when confronted by budget more closely to our new interests have much to teach us. Brexit. Some have still failed to grasp what is another. Security, cyber relations and has changed. defence are all just as much part of the “The Commonwealth The new building blocks of Britain’s networking agenda, as well as soft power today includes a dozen twenty-first century strategy reset are there links of every kind. of the fastest growing in front of us and ready to be assembled. Soft, hard and smart power must be economies in the First, intensified but new kinds of trade woven together and projected with new world and the largest and security links with a changing Europe. agility and imagination. For instance, the prospective middle- Second, much deeper engagement, time may well be approaching when global income markets of all country by country with the surging presence on the high seas may best be times. Many of them are powers of Asia. Third, new links of all kinds organised through joint Commonwealth now part of a new Asia.” and at many levels, with awakening Africa naval power in Commonwealth war-and- and the Americas. peace ships. The face of the future, to use Now comes the need for clever The Commonwealth network is one the Queen’s own phrase about the new architecture based on new visions of the entreés to this altered world, a Commonwealth, now confronts us. It is one and insights. In many ways India, the precious and obvious gateway to be which we must recognise and smile upon world’s biggest democracy, with half the opened wide. Britain must return to its with as much warmth, friendship, inspiration Commonwealth’s population and now with Commonwealth family and friends in a and foresight as we can muster.

Emerson Csorba is the Divided, we will fall Network and Outreach Lead at The Ditchley Foundation Canada needs to resist the call of identity politics, writes Emerson Csorba

he issue of identity politics has does not seem particularly Canadian, and I a multiculturalism policy, with the then gained traction in Canada in do not see it persisting in Canadian public Prime Minister, Pierre Trudeau, stating in T recent years, just as it has in other debate. Canadians pride themselves on his address to the House of Commons Western nations and particularly in the their multiculturalism, which is inclusive that: “The Government will support and case of our neighbours to the south. of identity and is more based on unity encourage the various cultures and ethnic Appeals to identity have been especially than it is on the accentuation of individual groups that give structure and vitality to apparent throughout the tenure of or group traits. It is multiculturalism, not our society. They will be encouraged to Justin Trudeau, Canada’s current Prime identity, that is fundamental to what it share their cultural expression and values Minister, with words such as ‘diversity’ means to be a Canadian. It is the integrity with other Canadians and so contribute and ‘inclusion’ featuring prominently in of Canadian multiculturalism that will need to a richer life for us all.” This would, his speeches and budgets — the 2018 to be preserved if Canada is to respond also in the elder Trudeau’s words, “help Federal budget labelled, by pundits, the effectively to global pressures such as to break down discriminatory attitudes ‘gender budget’ given its introduction of mass migration and climate change, which and cultural jealousies.” The Canadian Gender-Based Analysis Plus (GBA+) into will only intensify over time. Multiculturalism Act was later passed in its calculations. In October 1971, Canada became 1988, which recognised the central role of This emphasis on identity, however, the first country in the world to adopt multiculturalism in shaping Canada’s future. BETTER OVERSEAS? 18

>> When speaking about you regardless of who you are. markers of difference. multiculturalism, the elder Trudeau stressed This to me is a very Canadian way of The recent Alberta provincial election the importance of a full participation of thinking: each person and community is was the most vitriolic in the province’s different individuals and communities in respected, but this respect also implies history, and identity politics did figure into Canadian society. There is a clear sense in that others will help to ensure that Canada the campaigning across the main left and his writing that Canadians, regardless of remains a place where individuals and right parties. There is little doubt that the their origins or language, must shape the communities can express themselves in the Canadian federal election will be similar, country together, and that it is vital that they ways that are best for them. In other words, particularly given the emphasis that the are able to do so. Canadians must work hard to maintain current prime minister has placed on identity the integrity of their political, social and over the last five years. So, there is good “It is multiculturalism, cultural institutions, and that all share some reason to worry and to not take for granted not identity, that is responsibility in this. the welcoming spirit that Canadians have fundamental to what it The discussion in this way is more than worked hard to build over the last 150 years. means to be a Canadian.” one of just identity, self-expression and On the whole, identity politics does not recognition of difference. One’s identity seem to me to be an effective approach to The Canadian Multiculturalism Act matters, but one’s expression needs to governance in Canada. It is a short-term established that multiculturalism is make some contribution, even if small, to approach to politics that puts self-interest fundamental to what it means to be the flourishing of the country’s institutions and a desire to win above rigorous long- Canadian, and I believe that the vast majority and communities, and to the preservation term thinking. It is instead a commitment of Canadians would agree that this is of the welcoming spirit that is true of the to multiculturalism that instils pride in reflective of how they think today. And while Canadian experience. This is not to deny Canadians, even if this is a quiet pride. And perhaps rather timid in most situations — not that identity is important; rather it is to they can see when a political leader is taking including, of course, when supporting the suggest that identity politics is very un- them for a ride; Trudeau’s public support has Canadian men’s and women’s ice hockey Canadian, and that it runs counter to what plummeted over past years, due in no small teams — many Canadians feel great pride most Canadians would probably say is part part to his failure to follow through on his in the country’s multiculturalism and in the of their collective make-up. many supposed commitments to inclusion. genuine respect that all kinds of individuals Given that multiculturalism is part and groups are shown, regardless of where of the Canadian social fabric, a rise in “One’s identity matters, they are from, what language they speak or identity politics would suggest to me that but one’s expression the colour of their skin. something is beginning to go badly wrong needs to make some One concrete example can help to in Canada — for instance, that Canadians contribution, even if small, show what I mean. In the several years are losing faith in their public services, or to the flourishing of the prior to my first departure to the UK for that social inequality within the country is country’s institutions and postgraduate studies, my home city of increasing rapidly. But this is not the case communities.” Edmonton launched a project called and Canadians have much to be proud of ‘Make Something Edmonton’. As part of in these areas. Indeed, the idea of ‘social A Canadian population growing from this initiative, the Mayor and other city class’ is a shock to most young Canadians 40 million to 100 million by 2100, as leaders encouraged Edmontonians of all upon moving to the UK, where it is apparent some believe is possible, will require backgrounds to come together to launch that education and accent matter very much considered reflection on multiculturalism. new creative projects. I can still remember in one’s life and work opportunities. I do not believe Canada will go the same the Mayor at the time, Stephen Mandel, But Justin Trudeau has attempted way as other societies, characterised saying that “It doesn’t matter where you identity politics, and in recent elections the by their internal divisions. Canadians come from, where you went to school, or Conservatives have attempted to create embrace difference and see this as one of what your family name is. The only thing wedge issues related to ethnicity. The their major strengths. It is the continued that matters is whether you work hard and move to the political right in the United embrace of difference within Canadian are willing to build something together States and in other Western nations is also multiculturalism, over the long-term, that with others.” The idea was that if you have worrying for Canada, and many Canadians will be Canada’s real test and opportunity a great idea and are willing to roll up your are rightly on guard about the potential for for leadership as other parts of the world sleeves to begin on it, others will support division based on race, gender and other seem to move in the opposite direction. BETTER OVERSEAS? 19

Dr Zareer Masani is a Guilty past pleasures? historian and the author of Macaulay: Britain’s Liberal Imperialist Dr Zareer Masani looks back to the impact of Britain’s imperial past

s Britain prepares to leave the blamed for the sins of extreme Brexiteer be the demise of the post-colonial guilt that EU, the debate over its imperial nationalism today. It’s true that the Empire dominates our media and universities. From A past grows ever sharper. In some did not set out to civilise the world, rather news headlines, to academic seminars, ways that’s not surprising given that the to profit from it. But the mercantilism of to social media, there seems to be an European Common Market succeeded early trading companies and the early assumption that the British Empire is a past what was once the world’s largest free phases of buccaneering, conquest and to be apologised for and lamented. The few trade zone, namely the British Empire. As plunder were soon replaced in the mid- who have dared to challenge these anti- the lure of Europe recedes, it’s logical to nineteenth century by intelligent forms of colonial tropes are branded as racist neo- ask if Britain’s former colonies might again capitalism, designed to create stable and fascists or, in the case of people like me, make natural trading partners. prosperous markets and partnerships. imperialist toadies. Our academies have Contrary to the mantras of the anti- Take the Indian railways, so often claimed been in danger of a takeover by loony left colonial left, damning the Empire for as both an achievement of Empire and campaigners demanding ‘decolonisation’, looting and exploiting its subjects, serious an attempt to extend British control. In without any idea of what that might entail, economic historians like Professor Tirthankar fact, it was both. That arch-imperialist, the other than no-platforming speakers they Roy at the London School of Economics reforming Viceroy, Lord Dalhousie, saw the dislike and getting more black faces into have documented the many ways in which railways as a means of transporting British the lecture-halls and the curriculum, not on its subject populations benefited from troops, but also as a way of integrating merit, but simply for their race. transfers of technology, skilled personnel India’s far-flung markets, especially in and scarce capital from the mother country. food grains, thereby enriching farmers and “The imperial railway Those subject nations in return have reducing famines. The Raj left India with the success story might be enriched Britain’s multi-cultural perspectives world’s largest rail network, built initially by a model for how British and its labour markets, both skilled and a huge investment of British private capital, capital, skilled managers unskilled. It’s reasonable to expect that bought at far less than world market rates, and engineers might again a decline in Britain’s European ties can and replaced from the twentieth century by fan out across the world, be matched by a return to its symbiosis nationalised state ownership. enriching both Britain and with successful, advanced economies like The imperial railway success story the recipient countries.” Canada, Australia and New Zealand and the might be a model for how British capital, even more dramatic opportunities offered in skilled managers and engineers might A post-Brexit Britain is likely to be far a rapidly developing India and Africa. again fan out across the world, enriching less tolerant of such ‘woke’ absurdities and both Britain and the recipient countries. rightly proud of how Empire opened up our “The Empire is wrongly The Commonwealth, long just an amicable vistas to the outside world. Britain’s imperial blamed for the sins talking shop, might find a new future as an past seems to me a guarantor that ‘Little of extreme Brexiteer English-speaking, free trade bloc, which Englander’ attitudes have no future and that nationalism today.” even Ireland might be tempted to join. And we’ll remain truly cosmopolitan, whether in that in turn might make the Irish border no or out of the EU. Memories of Empire might It’s unfortunate that the continuing longer an issue. form the basis of a new global leadership relevance of our imperial past has made it The Brexit movement has been driven role for Britain as a powerhouse of art, the target of many who are committed to far more by nationalism than any residual literature, ideas, technology and skills, freely remaining in the EU. The Empire is wrongly imperialism. But one positive fallout might traded across most of the known world. MINORITIES NO MORE? 20

Helen Pluckrose is the Limited extremes editor of Areo magazine

Helen Pluckrose warns those on the centre-right and centre-left of exaggerating the influence of the extremes on the other side of the political spectrum

o I believe liberal universalism perceived as privileged. rights”, but it’s much more common to is being abandoned across the I think the vast majority of Brits continue hear “Patriarchy and white supremacy are Dpolitical spectrum? The short to hold an individual sense of fairness and oppressing women and BAME people.” answer to this question is no. reciprocity, in which they seek a society What even these extreme statements reveal This sometimes surprises people that allows all individuals to access all the is not a mindless hatred of demographic because I dedicate so much time to freedoms and opportunities the UK has to groups but a (catastrophising) perception of defending the need for a consistent and offer. I believe most of us are suspicious of illiberalism which must be opposed urgently. universal liberalism and criticising failures those who don’t support this conception of it in relation to right-wing and left-wing of society but instead seek to promote the “What we are seeing is identity politics. I clearly see a problem interests of special groups and advocate the extreme fringes of happening in which this core feature of for rights and privileges based on identity. both the political left and liberalism, universality, so central to a The longer answer to the initial question right abandoning liberal productive and harmonious society, is is no, but the desire to protect it from universalism and the being neglected. various threats is causing well-intended moderate majority of each people to undermine it. side reacting to that and “It is encouraging that When I wrote about this phenomenon unwittingly reinforcing it.” whether it is ‘lefties’ with my American collaborator, James catastrophising about the A. Lindsay, we termed it ‘Existential This makes the problem much harder extreme right or right- polarisation’. We meant that there is a to address because the concerns they wingers catastrophising reactive quality to politics at the moment speak to are present in the moderate and about the extreme left, they in which people are highly motivated to liberal majority who lean either way. If highlight their illiberalism. defend society against the illiberalism you are a ‘liberal conservative’, you won’t Liberalism still seems to of the other side – leading them to want to ban Islam and Muslims from the have considerable condone, downplay or even defend country, but you might well think there are cultural cachet.” illiberalism on their own side. Issues such illiberal aspects of Islam that need to be as the Syrian refugee crisis and Brexit addressed. But you could be way more Nevertheless, I do not believe that many in the UK, as well as rapidly increasing concerned about the extremist fringe on Britons have abandoned the idea that all ideological polarisation in the US, has led the political left which tells you that to talk individuals are entitled to common rights, to an increase in the perception that the about these concerns is white supremacy, freedoms and opportunities regardless extremes of the other side are presenting Islamophobia and ethnonationalism. You of their identity. I doubt that many on the an existential threat. could easily make the mistake of thinking political right oppose this principle, even It is very uncommon to hear someone this fringe is much bigger than it is, whilst though they have on their fringes those express a sentiment like “I hate brown thinking your own extremist fringe is too who support white nationalism and oppose people and they shouldn’t be allowed to live small to be much of a threat. LGBT rights and gender equality. It is in our country”, but much more common If you are a ‘liberal leftie’, you probably highly unlikely that many on the political to hear “Islam presents a threat to liberal won’t believe yourself to be living in a left oppose it even though they have, on democracy and we should ban it.” You white supremacist patriarchy, but you their fringes, those who call for censorship occasionally hear someone say “I hate white might well think there is still a way to go and the demonisation of groups in society men and they should be denied human before gender and racial equality are fully MINORITIES NO MORE? 21

>> achieved. Yet you are likely to be far each side reacting to that and unwittingly either side or both. This can only result in more concerned about the extremist fringe reinforcing it. withdrawing into apoliticism, or picking a on the political right, which tells you that if side to react unhelpfully against. you are not white and culturally Christian, “Most of us are suspicious Bright Blue is a liberal conservative you don’t belong here. You could start to of those who don’t organisation so I urge its presumably mostly believe that these attitudes are widespread support this conception conservative readers to avoid catastrophising on the political right and feel that, while of society but instead about the political left as a whole. Instead, your own extremist fringe is a bit mad, seek to promote the they should keep their criticisms measured, its heart is in the right place. And so the interests of special groups while focusing on those on the political polarisation grows. and advocate for rights right who undermine their efforts to build When Bright Blue asked me if I and privileges based on an ethical, liberal conservatism. I, for my felt universal liberalism to be being identity.” part, will avoid catastrophising about the abandoned across the political spectrum, I political right while disagreeing with you, appreciated that the question encouraged It is encouraging that whether it is and continue to focus on getting through me to consider illiberalism on both ‘lefties’ catastrophising about the extreme to those illiberal lefties who undermine my sides. However, I think we must be wary right or right-wingers catastrophising attempts to build an ethical and liberal left. of seeing it as ubiquitous. It is my, and about the extreme left, they highlight their The best hope we have for a peaceful and James Lindsay’s, belief that what we are illiberalism. Liberalism still seems to have fair society is for liberals on both sides to seeing is the extreme fringes of both the considerable cultural cachet. However, marginalise their extremists so we can have political left and right abandoning liberal we must be careful not to feed into the reasoned and productive debates with each universalism and the moderate majority of perception that such illiberalism defines other about real issues.

Lord Holmes of Richmond Accessing talent was Director of Paralympic Integration for the London Olympics Lord Holmes discusses the challenges that disabled people still face in Britain

lost my sight at the age of fourteen. towards ‘people like ourselves’. It feels an individual apart from the ‘ordinary’ and Ironically, one of the most challenging safer and it is natural, but expanding outside social norms. I aspects was the fact that people our definition of who is included is an immediately stopped seeing me. The essential part of creating a civilised “Disability research is often attitudes of those around me became society. Qualitative research conducted in the ground-breaking, everything. advance of the 2012 Paralympics found boundary-pushing work Practical challenges can be solved with that almost no one would be likely to buy that leads to technology practical solutions. But access to practical tickets for the Paralympics. Respondents we all become familiar solutions – and the willingness of people to were quoted as saying “why would I with, such as text-to- consider, or provide, these solutions – can spend money, when I spend my life speech software and be the difference between inclusion and trying to avoid people like that.” Thinking predictive text.” opportunity, and an insurmountable barrier. about disability can make people without Attitudes and culture remain one of disabilities, or without direct experience One of the most successful ways the major challenges faced by disabled of disability, feel awkward and frightened. we challenged these attitudes and people in modern Britain. Humans are Disability, when viewed as weakness or a stereotypes was with the Channel 4 ‘Meet social animals and we are predisposed personal tragedy, is something that sets the Superhumans’ campaign. Part of the MINORITIES NO MORE? 22

>> campaign was a ninety second advert, impaired were offered careers as piano Artificial intelligence, nano-technology, 3D soundtrack by Public Enemy, introducing tuners or basket weavers. This “national printing, genetic sequencing, to name but Paralympic athletes. Simultaneously scandal”, as the Head of Ofsted describes a few, are turbo-charging this process. showing people with disabilities whilst it, harms us all. Failing to ensure equal Correctly deployed, the ‘Fourth Industrial inverting presumptions of weakness, access to high-quality education Revolution’ will enable, include and the advert also showed short, shocking misses out on a pool of talent that will transform our world. As ever, though, we glimpses of a car crash, an IED, a neo-natal be a devastating waste, not just to the must root it all in ethical principles, with a scan; in so doing connecting us all to the individuals but to all of us. ruthless focus on the society we want to experience and challenging assumptions create and the lives we want to live. No one of difference. Disability is not ‘other’. It “Creating opportunities must be left behind, no talent wasted, no happens to you. It happens to me. for disabled talent is not individuals excluded. People in the end did buy tickets, did looking to give anyone I have been working recently on two come and watch the Paralympics, did enjoy an unfair advantage. An specific issues of access and inclusion: an incredible world-class summer of sport. equitable, inclusive, fully access to the public realm; and, After the games many people reported accessible jobs market representation in public appointments. In feeling for the first time that their disability puts everyone on the same the public realm, a street-design approach was not perceived as a negative thing. start line.” known as ‘shared space’ has been Attitudes can change, and we can all be transforming our high streets. Pedestrian part of effecting that change. The consequences of failing crossings and pavements are removed to with education inevitably impact on create a space that is ‘shared’ by vehicles “I lost my sight at the age employment. Just over 51% of people and pedestrians. However, without a clear of fourteen. Ironically, one with disabilities are in employment, demarcation between safe space and of the most challenging significantly below the employment rate road space visually impaired pedestrians aspects was the fact for people without disabilities which now lose the ability to navigate independently. that people immediately sits at just over 81%. Forty percent of Many others suffer too; children armed stopped seeing me.” young people with visual impairments do with the green cross code cannot stop, not reach employment and are instead look and listen when there is no obvious Further challenges exist – around condemned to a life on benefits. Again, the place to stop. I commissioned my own equality of opportunity in education and core principles are individual opportunity research into the problem and have been employment. In 1995, a Conservative and enabling talent; talent in its broadest working for years to raise awareness of the Government passed the Disability most brilliant form, not just that of a tiny issues and help direct government policy Discrimination Act, which subsequently elite. Creating opportunities for disabled to ensure our high streets are safe and became part of the Equality Act 2010. talent is not looking to give anyone an accessible for all. This Act enshrines the principles of equal unfair advantage. An equitable, inclusive, access to education and employment. But fully accessible jobs market puts everyone “Disability is not ‘other’. despite this, currently, we are not where we on the same start line. It allows everyone It happens to you. It must be. to run whatever race they choose with happens to me.” The Head of Ofsted has recently fairness, dignity and respect. described the lack of support for children One of the areas that does give me Public appointments have an equally with diagnosed special educational needs hope is the potential for technology significant impact on all our lives. Public as a “national scandal”. Twenty seven to furnish us with incredible, enabling bodies, and the appointees that constitute percent of children on the autism spectrum solutions. The mainstreaming of assistive them, are responsible for the distribution have been excluded from school. A BBC technology demonstrates just what a of £200 billion of public funds across, but investigation in 2017 found that, over the difference the new tools we have will not limited to, healthcare, education, the previous five years, numbers of children make to all our lives. Disability research criminal justice system, energy, security with special educational needs being is often the ground-breaking, boundary- and defence. Currently – shockingly – home-schooled had grown by 57%. pushing work that leads to technology we just 3% of public appointees declare We must not allow the clock to be all become familiar with, such as text- a disability. I was invited to conduct an turned back to a time when the visually to-speech software and predictive text. independent review for the Government MINORITIES NO MORE? 23

>> into why this figure is so low and make around improving data collection and world in which all people can contribute recommendations to ensure that public transparency, including setting a target of their talents and benefits, then there appointees better represent the society 11.3% of all public appointments being is work to be done. Currently, talent is they serve. My recommendations call for for disabled people . I look forward to the everywhere, but opportunity is not. There a more innovative and flexible approach government response to the review. is much that we can all do to change this. at all stages of the recruitment process. If you believe in individual rights, The rewards, should we succeed, will be There are also important recommendations freedom and opportunities, and desire a great indeed.

Duncan Exley was the Rebuilding the British dream director of the Equality Trust, and is the author of The end of aspiration? We need a rethink on social mobility, claims Duncan Exley Social mobility and our children’s fading prospects

ne of the key dividing lines seen as coming from a different social arrived, like me, shortly before opening between Leavers and Remainers class as the rest of us, and not without time. We talked about the Scottish Ois that the former are more likely reason: our politicians disproportionately independence referendum that would take to feel that their — and their country’s-best do come from unusually privileged place the following week. She’d initially days are behind them. backgrounds. The expensively-educated been inclined to vote ‘No’ to independence, A feeling of growth is written in the Nigel Farage being a case in point, but “since the banks have been saying air above London, and to a lesser extent alongside the expensively-educated ‘vote No’, I’m leaning towards ‘Yes’”’. Just some of our other metropolitan centres, by leader of Momentum. over a year later, a former corporate chief the number of construction cranes on the executive was appointed as chair of the skyline, but there aren’t so many elsewhere. “I found numerous ‘Britain Stronger in Europe’ campaign. As the Financial Times’ Chris Giles pointed examples of upwardly The resentment towards those whose out six years ago, there are more in London mobile people undergoing opportunities appear to be expanding than in the rest of the country put together. a process of adaptation: while others’ are receding also has At ground level, we are now, as a nation, self-censoring their consequences for social cohesion. When more likely to experience downward social own culture, opinions ‘establishment’ organisations such as mobility — to have a job further down the and experiences and political parties and the BBC proudly occupation hierarchy than our parents had replacing them with those showcase their efforts to promote people at the same age — than we are to ‘go up in with which others are from minority groups (as they should) but the world’. comfortable.” are perceived to make less effort to promote When we feel that the opportunities people from different socioeconomic we have worked and studied hard for The same resentment is felt towards and regional backgrounds, then there’s a are slipping further from our grasp, we other parts of ‘the establishment’ – in the backlash. It doesn’t help that while people are more likely to resent those who do media, business and elsewhere – who also from minority ethnic groups continue to attain those opportunities, especially if we disproportionately come from privileged look like people from minority ethnic groups suspect they did so as a result of some backgrounds. This is one of the reasons when they get into ‘the establishment’, unfair advantage. why those of them who advocated a people from working-class and regional This is one of the reasons why Remain vote tended to see their efforts backgrounds often feel pressure to hide it. attitudes towards the ‘political class’ (as backfire. For example, in 2014, sitting on An example is student teachers being told Nigel Farage likes to call it) have soured the steps of Glasgow’s Tenement House to ‘tone down’ their accents, and thus make as much as they have. They are widely museum, I spoke to a woman who’d themselves less relatable as potential role- MINORITIES NO MORE? 24

>> models for their pupils. Those from outside the ‘metropolitan elite’ don’t just see themselves apparently being kept out of ‘the establishment’, they also see their views being kept out. As the former Education ministerial adviser Sam Freedman says, they encounter a “… strong social incentive to shift their views.” In researching my book, I found numerous examples of upwardly mobile people undergoing a process of adaptation: self- censoring their own culture, opinions and experiences and replacing them with those with which others are comfortable. To break down this divide we have to improve our rates of social mobility so that ‘the establishment’ becomes more relatable. But as I show in my new book, The end of aspiration?, the way ‘the establishment’ currently talk about social mobility is itself divisive and alienating. ‘Mobility’ suggests that individuals should have no objection to leaving behind the identity, people and places they may love, in order to ‘leave to achieve’. Some on the political left have used this point to accuse others of thinking that ‘the only good working-class person is one who is in the process of becoming something else’. But the conclusion of those left-wing the housing ladder. Not by talking about such as the cost of uniforms and criticisms of social mobility (that while jargonistic concepts like ‘social mobility’ but equipment that deter some families from collective aspirations are legitimate, by talking about the aspirations that unite the applying to high-performing state schools; individual aspirations for ourselves and our majority: a fulfilling job, a home to call our and an ambitious strategy for attracting family are not) isn’t right either. Two thirds own, and the ability to live a life determined and nurturing high-quality jobs. of people think fairness is more closely more by our choices than our background. related to ‘getting what you deserve’ than As my book about the formative “It doesn’t help that while it is to ‘equality’, but don’t see these as experiences of people who achieved people from minority being in conflict with collective values ‘ideas above their station’ suggests, the ethnic groups continue relating to, for example, the NHS. programme for allowing as many of us as to look like people from Optimism or pessimism about the possible to attain those aspirations also minority ethnic groups opportunities to attain our (and our appeals to commonly-held, uniting values: when they get into ‘the children’s) aspirations may be a dividing secure family incomes and homes with establishment’, people force, but it can be turned into an secure tenancies, in which aspirations can from working-class and opportunity to help unite the broad middle be developed and pursued; socially-mixed regional backgrounds of the UK, especially as downward social schools, neighbourhoods and extra- often feel pressure to mobility is now being felt across large curricular activities, in which individuals hide it.” swathes of middle Britain, who see their from different backgrounds can explore graduate offspring struggling to get a job each other’s aspirations; removing some of Opportunity may currently divide us, but that matches their qualifications or get on the ‘toll roads on the route to opportunity’ aspiration can unite us. MINORITIES NO MORE? 25

Virginia Crosbie is the Through the glass ceiling director of Women2Win

On both sides of the Atlantic, women are mobilising into a powerful political force, argues Virginia Crosbie

omen are becoming the most still underrepresented in every aspect powerful force in US politics. of leadership from local politics to the W Three of the most influential boardroom. US activists – Cecile Richards, Alicia So what does this mean for the UK? We Garza and Ai-jen Poo – have launched too have seen an increase in participation of ‘Supermajority’, with the goal of rallying two women in politics. ‘Processions 2018’ saw million women over the next year to become tens of thousands of women across the UK political leaders in their communities. march to celebrate 100 years of suffrage. Women are having a voice and using In 2018, the first statue of a women, Dame it; the Women’s March the day after the Millicent Fawcett, the women’s right-to-vote inauguration of Donald Trump was the campaigner, was erected in Parliament largest single-day protest in US history. Square. Later this year, as a result of a The 2018 mid-term elections saw a record crowdfunding initiative, a statue of Lady number of women, including women Nancy Astor, the first female MP to sit in from ethnic minority groups, elected to UK Parliament, is to be erected in Plymouth Congress and the US now has the highest to celebrate 100 years since her election. number of women ever running for the The campaign to have a woman scientist on 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. the new £50 note has been loud and clear and we will know the result this summer. “Unless we have These are just a few high-profile examples; representation on everywhere, women are raising their voices, our green benches in getting involved and getting results. Parliament, we are not So how do we harness the talents going to have the policies and enthusiasm of women willing to enter green benches in Parliament, we are not that reflect the electorate.” the political debate? Groups like 50:50 going to have the policies that reflect the Parliament are successfully encouraging electorate. And without policies that reflect The political phenomenon, Alexandra women from all parties to come forward with the electorate we are going to find it even Ocasio-Cortez, has had a meteoric rise its #AskHerToStand campaign. Brandon harder to win elections. to Congress and is now the second most Lewis MP, the Conservative Party chairman, talked about politician in the US after has announced his ambition of having 50% “Women now realise that Trump with her ‘winning hearts and minds’ women candidate lists. The Conservative if they don’t get involved approach to campaigning. Party is holding its first Women’s then things won’t change.” Women now realise that if they don’t get Conference in Birmingham, featuring policy involved then things won’t change. With discussions and skills workshops. Women have different perspectives a record level of women in office, these Why does this matter? Is this just because they have had different life are the women who create opportunities political correctness? No. It matters experiences; not better or worse, but for other women to follow. There is still because politics often reflects the different. Women make up 50% of the a long way to go; women make up over experiences of those making the policies; talent in the UK: lets make sure we all half the US population, but they are unless we have representation on our benefit from it. MINORITIES NO MORE? 26

Rachel Maclean MP is Cease the intergenerational conflict PPS to the Government Equalities Office

Rachel Maclean MP feels that attempts to pit the young against the old are destined to backfire

he generational divide is a hot topic attract younger voters. We know that social psychology. in politics now. Generally, there is a younger people are reluctant to vote for You cannot win votes by promising T view on the political left, and from us, but that they share many of our values. to take things away from one generation some in the centre-ground, that younger We know broadly what young people care or social group to give it to another. The people have been unfairly disadvantaged, about and the legitimate reasons they have result of this is that both groups perceive or even discriminated against, by older to feel the system is unfairly stacked against it as unfair. generations. them as they seek to get a start in life. Our policies should focus on how However, I take issue with the “Our policies should focus we grow the pie for everyone to benefit ‘generational war’ narrative promoted by on how we grow the pie for from, and not squabble over how the some commentators. Even well-meaning everyone to benefit from, pie is divided up. A divisive approach to contributions – for example to the social and not squabble over how generational resource sharing will alienate care funding problem – have generated the pie is divided up.” all generations of voters. A new approach is ideas suggesting differential age-related needed if Conservatives are to successfully taxation. Why? Let’s delve for a moment into appeal to a younger generation. I don’t think this approach is the right some deep-seated psychological truths. one for Conservatives. We risk creating As a veteran of two psychology degrees, “You cannot win votes by further division and alienating voters of all I often think that we lack insight into promising to take things ages. Crude age-related indicators alone the interaction between politics and away from one generation cannot be the answer. There is a huge psychology. We would do well to apply or social group to give it to diversity of wealth and income among some ‘Psychology 101’ to political views. another.” older age groups, and older people must We constantly compare ourselves with grapple with declining health and vitality, others, both above and below us. And we Though I have long left behind any claim their own mortality and existential questions are programmed to believe the best about to be part of the younger generation, I am of their own as they plan for the end of their ourselves. the parent of four children aged between working lives. So if we are part of a relatively well-off 20 and 26, as well as a veteran of a decade It is a natural human response when generation, we tell ourselves it’s because of doorstep campaigning in marginal faced with perceived injustice to look for we worked hard, paid in all our lives, made constituencies across the West Midlands. blame. And it is true that the distribution sacrifices. If we are part of a relatively I know that older voters care as much of wealth between generations has badly-off generation, we wouldn’t label about the prospects of the next generation been shifting unfavourably away from ourselves feckless, lazy or stupid. Instead, as their children and grandchildren. They the younger generations to the older we make sense of this with a narrative that are acutely aware that the world is different generations for some years now, especially it’s someone else’s fault – the system, the to when they grew up and worry about when housing wealth is taken into account. government, or the older generation. the future. Various policy suggestions to tackle Linked to this is another basic piece As the Conservative Party faces the intergenerational inequity, from both the of psychology – the theory of cognitive huge challenge of renewing ourselves from political left and right, would have the dissonance. Imagine you have worked within government, while grappling with effect of redistributing wealth from older hard all your life and have been rewarded Brexit, much of the thinking at the moment to younger generations. My challenge to with success. You are likely to hold a belief is explicitly around bold new policies to this idea is based on some basic human system which prizes hard work and believes MINORITIES NO MORE? 27

>> it will be rewarded. Imagine, then, that The ideas at the heart of such policies will that voters of all ages will be uncomfortable there is objective evidence to demonstrate set off unconscious processes of social with such generational redistributive that your value system could be wrong. comparison and the associated cognitive policies, will not find them credible, and will For example, your neighbour somehow dissonance. Older voters will instinctively be unlikely to vote for them. becomes successful without doing any reject the policies, because of the implied Creating solutions to the very difficult work. This causes cognitive dissonance. challenge and comparisons implicit in challenges of paying for social care, our Since you cannot explain this state of them – even while ostensibly appearing to health services, and an ageing population, affairs, the only way to reduce or avoid say that society should support the next without penalising older people, is an this unpleasant mental state is to find an generation. And younger voters will relate enormous challenge. To rise to it we need alternative explanation. It cannot be that hard policies to their own family and conclude an honest conversation about government work does not equal rewards, so it must that their own parents and grandparents spending, the wealth tied up in property be that the neighbour got lucky somehow. aren’t personally at fault. assets and pensions, and the cost of Perhaps they inherited the money. Perhaps These are unconscious processes, so social care and the NHS. These questions they are a criminal. And so on. it will be difficult to draw this out in focus go to the heart of fundamental values These psychological principles explain groups or on doorsteps. They involve held by voters about fairness and justice. why an older person will instinctively and people facing up to uncomfortable truths Unfortunately, simply sharing out a pie unconsciously resent and reject policies about how our brains work and what we with demands from all corners won’t be that attempt generational redistribution. believe. For us politicians, the upshot is enough. BRIGHT BLUE POLITICS 28

The Rt Hon Nick Gibb MP Why I’m a Bright Blue MP is the Minister of State for School Standards

Economic conservatism and social liberalism go hand in hand, writes the Rt Hon Nick Gibb MP

take an optimistic view of human nature; marriage and family were the cornerstone the means of some change, is without the that through freedom, protected and of a strong, free and happy society, being means of its own conservation”. I upheld by the rule of law, the ingenuity able to marry as a gay man was the For me, being a socially liberal and enterprising spirit inherent in us all greatest moment of my life. Conservative means knowing the value of will be inspired to find the solutions to And what have I discovered since? That what we already have – our culture, our our problems and help deliver people’s my joy has been shared by so many of the accumulated traditions, our values – as aspirations and quality of life. people I work with every day, by members well as the wisdom to update, adapt and of the Bognor Regis and Littlehampton evolve when necessary. “We are a nation that Conservative Association, by constituents This message is more vital now than generally doesn’t worry who I meet at my surgery, at community ever before. The pace and upheavals of too much about what coffee mornings, in local businesses and modern life make adaptation a matter of other people do unless out on the street. survival. Yet, the experience of recent it impinges on the lives I simply don’t buy the argument that years, the rancour and the rise of civil of others.” the British are a moralistic or disapproving discord, also makes clear the need to people. In fact, in my experience, we are cherish what we hold in common. Hand in hand with economic freedom a nation that generally doesn’t worry too goes social liberalism. I am, unashamedly, much about what other people do unless it “Being able to marry as a a socially liberal Conservative. How could impinges on the lives of others. gay man was the greatest I not be? And what about the relationship of moment of my life.” My life has been completed by conservativism to social liberalism? Far from legislation introduced by Tony Blair and being incompatible, ‘change to conserve’ We must change to conserve, and David Cameron to recognise same-sex is a mantra as old as Conservatism itself. conserve to avoid changing beyond relationships. Having always believed that As Edmund Burke put it, “A state without recognition.

Sam Lampier is a Research overview Researcher at Bright Blue

Sam Lampier updates us on Bright Blue’s research programme

ver the past six months or shortlisted for the fourth year in a row as Clearing the air, which examined the scale so, Bright Blue’s energy and the UK Energy and Environment Think of, consequences of and public attitudes O environment team have continued Tank of the Year in the 2019 Prospect towards air pollution in the West Midlands. their strong output of influential research Magazine awards. It recommended new transport policies to reports. So much that we have been Last Autumn, Bright Blue published reduce air pollution in the region, including BRIGHT BLUE POLITICS 29

>> allowing local and combined authorities can better reduce air pollution post-Brexit, and drivers of neighbourhood trust and to make reasonable profits from the as well as a manifesto for domestic and social integration. This will not only map administration of their clean air zones. international conservation. levels of neighbourhood trust in every local Most recently, we published Pressure Meanwhile, a few months ago, we authority in England, it will also be able to in the pipeline. The report argued that published, Helping hand?, which explored identify the most socially integrated areas deeper decarbonisation of gas is essential the impact of the unique and key design in the country. if the UK is to meet its current and features of Universal Credit during critical We are also working with the Fabian likely future greenhouse gas emissions stages of the claimant experience. The Society on a report examining the case for, reduction target. We were pleased to see report included 11 recommendations and nature of, an independent pensions the Government adopt one of our policy and received significant media coverage, commission. recommendations in the Spring Budget – including in The Times, The Sun and British politics continues to be an obligation on gas suppliers to ensure a The Guardian. dominated by Brexit. The latest delay certain proportion of green gas through the In the coming months, the key focus for means it is likely that this, and the network. our work on social policy will be a report Conservative Party leadership contest, examining public attitudes to welfare will continue to overshadow other issues. “Bright Blue’s research policies in Scotland. This also marks the However, Bright Blue’s research team team has maintained its ongoing expansion of Bright Blue Scotland, has maintained its output of high-quality output of high-quality building upon the publication of recent research reports into the pressing research reports into the analysis by Murdo Fraser MSP, which problems faced by Britain. With several pressing problems faced proposed new quasi-federal constitutional exciting projects lined up for the rest of by Britain.” arrangements for the UK after Brexit. 2019, Bright Blue will continue to propose After over a year of research, we will evidence-based domestic policies based Bright Blue will soon publish two further also shortly be publishing a ground- on our liberal, open, democratic and reports – one into how national government breaking new report into the importance meritocratic values.

Helping hand? Improving Universal Credit Ryan Shorthouse, Sam Lampier and Anvar Sarygulov

Universal Credit is one of the most significant reforms of the welfare system in the UK for decades. Initially, it enjoyed widespread support. But as Universal Credit has gone from idea to implementation, the cross-party consensus has dissipated.

This report explores the impact of the unique and key design features of Universal Credit during three critical stages of the claimant experience: accessing, managing on, and progressing on Universal Credit. Original policies are proposed to minimise some of the common challenges faced by a sizeable minority of claimants, as well as to ensure that more claimants can enjoy the positive experiences many already have. 30

Tamworth Prize winner 2019 Toxic tide: Can we live without The Tamworth Prize is our annual essay competition for young people aged 21 or under. It is a chance for young people to explain what sort plastic? of centre-right Britain needs today.

Anya Nash

lastic comes in all shapes and sizes: from bags and packaging, P to microplastics that are found in cosmetic products that many people use daily. Due to this, plastic has been found in every known ecosystem on the planet. It is predicted that by 2050 there will be more plastic in the oceans than fish. This could change if we remove plastic from our lives. However, there is a huge economic backlash to this idea and it would be very difficult to implement. Plastic is particularly problematic as it doesn’t biodegrade quickly; it usually takes about 450 years, although this varies with the type of plastic. The oldest plastic waste is about 120 years old, but the majority of it was created after the 1960s, when plastic became ubiquitous. This means that most plastic currently found across the planet is going to remain intact on Earth for at least 400 years. Human mismanagement of this material has had disastrous impacts. Ninety percent of birds have plastic in their stomachs and millions will die from it. The plastic does not break down so cannot pass out of the bird’s system. Consequently, they feel less hungry as their brain thinks that their stomach is full, so they don’t get the food and nutrients they need. Plastic is destroying life and ecosystems on our planet. So can we adapt to live without it? We could use bioplastics as an BRIGHT BLUE POLITICS 31

>> alternative as they are made from renewable biomass sources, such as vegetable fats and oils, food waste and woodchips. As of 2014, they made up only 0.2% of the global polymer market. It is possible to use them in the same way as chemically created plastics. Bioplastics also leave a smaller energy footprint and do not contain BPA, which is a toxic substance that can be found in petroleum plastics. BPA can leach into food and cause health complications, especially during reproduction, with offspring being born heavier and more likely to be insulin resistant. Bioplastics are not totally beneficial to the environment, as they do not always biodegrade faster than petroleum plastics. Additionally, they are difficult to dispose of production than paper ones. In a world consequently the global economy is not correctly as consumers are unsure if they where the UK will not have enough water economically viable. are biodegradable or not. Their production to meet demand by 2050, this is another is also known to cause eutrophication, key issue to consider, before fully moving “It is much easier, and more where water is over-enriched by nutrients, towards paper cups. impactful, to make smaller deoxygenation of water and consequently More widely, there are huge economic changes.” the death of aquatic organisms. complications to removing plastic from the global market. Petroleum plastic Overall, the removal of plastic from “It is predicted that by 2050 comes from crude oil, which drives the our lives would visually benefit the there will be more plastic global economy. A general decrease in environment and in many ways would in the oceans than fish.” the demand for oil globally would have reduce pollution. While alternatives to serious consequences for countries plastic can be better for the environment However, biolplastics are an alternative like Saudi Arabia, whose economies in some cases, often they are worse to traditional plastics. Due to the vast rely on oil. It is not just the source for the environment in other ways. use of plastic, we will need to replace that is affected, but plastic products Theoretically, we could live without plastic petroleum plastics with a number of would have to change. Toys, clothes, but, in reality, alternatives may cause more different materials. packaging and bags would have to problems than they solve. Another alternative is paper and change or disappear. This would mean Furthermore, the economic factors cardboard. This would replace plastic all businesses concerned would be mean that it is incredibly difficult to end utensils, cups and bags as well as other affected. Manufacturers particularly would plastic in a way that will benefit everyone. items. This is better than plastic as the be affected by ending plastic completely. Due to the difficulty in mobilising people material is recyclable, and trees are a It will be incredibly costly and may cost and the immense backlash that would renewable resource if we plant them and some smaller businesses a significant come from countries and businesses chop them down at a sustainable rate. For portion of their profit. Removing plastic alike, it is not plausible to live entirely example, paper cups generate 28% fewer from our lives will cause economic without plastic. It is much easier, and more greenhouse gases them plastic cups and damage on a global and a local scale and impactful, to make smaller changes. biodegrade 3,650 times quicker. with the global economy still recovering However, paper cups are heavier than from the 2008 crash, removing a Anya Nash is the winner of the plastic cups, hence they require more product that makes up around 3% of the 2019 Tamworth Prize and is energy to transport. Furthermore, plastic global economy is unthinkable. Hence, currently a student at JAGS cups use half the amount of water in the removal plastic from our lives and sixth form. ARTS & BOOKS 32

ARTS & BOOKS

Ryan Shorthouse is the Enlightenment now Director of Bright Blue by Steve Pinker

rofessor Pinker, in his latest tome, richer. Even winning the lottery makes people are nostalgic for traditional folkways have continues his crusade to convince happier, contrary to popular belief. forgotten how hard our forebears fought to P us that the world really is getting His dogged extraction and presentation escape them...Today we enjoy a world of better, regardless of Donald Trump. of data is deeply impressive. And, personal freedom these characters could according to Pinker, moral: “A quantitative only fantasise about, a world in which people “Some would say he is a mindset, despite its nerdy aura, is in fact can marry, work, and live as they please”. libertarian techno-optimist. the morally enlightened one, because it Indeed, the writing is most powerful away But, he stresses that both treats every human life as having equal from the relentless recital of hard, cold facts, market forces and state value”. But, my goodness, its repetitive. when he shares stories of how horrible the regulation have helped We get the story, but Pinker gives you so past could be: “Small children stood on drive progress.” many graphs, and covers so much ground, boxes to tend dangerous machinery in mills, ensuring any ‘progressophobia’ is well and mines and canneries, breathing air thick with He is armed with historical data on an truly knocked out of you. cotton or coal dust, kept awake by splashes abundance of outcomes, from equal rights And, although I very much subscribe of cold water in their faces, collapsing into to the environment. Chapter after chapter, to his thesis, I do have doubts about sleep after exhausting shifts with food still in he charts the progress which has been comparing data from centuries ago with their mouths”. made in both the developed and developing today, when statistical sampling and world since the European Enlightenment, collection must have been very different. “There is also some useful but especially in recent decades. Pinker blames two types of people for puncturing of prevailing but Some of the facts are astounding. The cynicism and catastrophising about the erroneous arguments.” global child mortality rate falling from 18% state of the modern world. First, journalists, to 4% between the 1960s and 2000s. who fixate on crises. Unsurprisingly, he’s The scare stories can also be The growth in protected areas such as got data that confirms that American media dangerous, Pinker professes. The arms national parks and wildlife reserves across has become more negative in tone since race during the Cold War was exacerbated the globe in the last two decades being the middle of the last century. because of apocalyptic language about equivalent to an area twice the size of Second, intellectual, cultural and nuclear destruction. the United States. A typical American political elites who like to put down rivals Pinker, though, is careful to tell us he is firefighter will now see just one burning and gain praise. He cites experiments not complacent. Progress is not inevitable. building every other year. An average showing that critics who pan a book are Anthropogenic global warming is a real and American today will work a quarter less of perceived as more competent than those serious danger. There has been a slowdown their lifetime than one in 1960. who praise it, claiming the same may be in increases in national and individual wealth There is also some useful puncturing true of “critics of society”. He detects some in the developed world. And authoritarian of prevailing but erroneous arguments. It’s snobbery too, towards the rising proletariat populists are ascending again. not true, as the Easterlin Paradox famously and bourgeois who – with more money But he tells us that these problems are professed, that personal happiness stops and time – will be consigned to ghastly solvable by human ingenuity, if we are led rising after certain levels of income have been careerism and consumerism. by enlightenment values of reason, science met. Rather, richer people within a country Pinker is understandably frustrated and humanism. Some would say he is a are happier, richer countries are happier, and with the lack of gratitude and perspective libertarian techno-optimist. But, he stresses people get happier as their countries get among the doom-mongers: “Those who that both market forces and state regulation ARTS & BOOKS 33

>> have helped drive progress: “The ascent number of “libertarian paradises”, where problem-solvers to work. of safety was led by some heroes, but it countries are rich but have little social was advanced by a motley of actors who spending, is zero, he reminds. Enlightenment Now, pushed in the same direction inch by inch: Pinker is one of the greatest thinkers Steve Pinker; grassroots activists, paternalistic legislators, of our time. But he should remember that Penguin Books; and an unsung cadre of inventors, engineers, those messengers of melancholy can 576 pages (Paperback). policy wonks, and number-crunchers”. The be useful: they focus minds and get the Published 13 February 2018.

Anvar Sarygulov is a Cultural backlash: Trump, Brexit, Researcher at Bright Blue and Deputy and authoritarian populism Editor of Centre Write by Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart

uch ink has been spilled about for their country. An ‘authoritarian reflex’ and institutions, while side-lining the role Trump, Brexit and the phenomena occurs amongst such voters, as they feel of leadership. When discussing Trump, Mof populism over the last few that their political tribe is under threat, Orban or Salvini, the effectiveness of years, and the quality of those outputs leading them to placing more emphasis their movements is not only linked to the has been varied, to say the least. That on conformity, need for security against long-term trends that led to their rise to said, Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart the threat, and loyalty to group leaders power, but to the individuals themselves. are eminent political scientists, and their who are seen capable of accomplishing This is partly caused by the choice of their contribution is exactly as one would expect. this. This process is reinforced by the methodology, as you cannot statistically Their book is detailed, insightful and long-term economic conditions and recent analyse political leadership in the same chock-full with data, tables and graphs, but immigration trends, as this group of voters way you can attitudes of voters, but a it is also an academic work first, making it does not only feel under threat culturally, greater acknowledgement of the former’s a significantly denser reading than some but also economically. importance would be welcome. would like. Ultimately, success of authoritarian The argument of Norris and Inglehart The book’s thesis is a simple one. In post- populism only occurs when the above is not new – in fact, it is a major expansion war Western societies, increasing affluence, trends are translated into actual seats, of their widely read paper from 2016. And demographic changes, improvements in meaning that the difference in electoral the role of culture has taken centre-stage racial and gender equality, urbanisation systems also explains the difference in in discussions around Trump, Brexit and and increasing access to university led to fortunes of such parties across Europe. populism a while ago. So do not expect profound and fundamental social structural However, when they rise to power, such to be provided with major new insights. change. These shifts led to a silent revolution parties and leaders delegitimise checks But if you are interested in a powerful in cultural values, particularly amongst the and balances, remove constraints and and comprehensive reinforcement of the young, during the end of the twentieth dismantle tolerance. Such changes might above argument, you could not find a century, with societies becoming increasingly pass once the populists are out of power, better book. socially liberal, while attachments to nation but they can also take root in the system, and religion weakened. undermining liberal democracies. Cultural backlash: Trump, Brexit, and This set the stage for the titular cultural Each part of their thesis is meticulously authoritarian populism, backlash, as older, rural voters and those supported by a range of data and case Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart; without university degrees feel increasingly studies, making it difficult to disagree with Cambridge University Press; disconnected and displeased with the their overall argument. Yet, the book’s main 300 pages (Paperback). political leaders and the direction they set weakness is its focus on macro trends Published 6 February 2019. ARTS & BOOKS 34

The invisible killer: The rising Will Nicolle is a Researcher at global threat of air pollution and Bright Blue how we can fight back by Gary Fuller

ir pollution has attracted increasing The reader is then offered snippets contextualise, humanise, and – most attention, both in the UK – as of how air pollution has evolved over the importantly – politicise air pollution as an A reflected in a newfound flurry of twentieth century – from The Great Smog issue we all contribute to and suffer as a media coverage – and internationally due of London in 1952, creating a dense pea consequence of. Clearing our air, Fueller to the World Health Organisation (WHO) soup within which Londoners had to live, to says, is “like trying to take the milk out of warning of it as “the greatest environmental the unintended consequences of mistakes your coffee: once it’s in, it’s in”. risk to health of our time”. Gary Fuller’s such as including lead in petrol. Fuller finishes on a few points of new book succinctly outlines the historical optimism – that low-carbon lifestyles and action on, current threat from, and options “Setting it up in its historical industries are “no longer a potential goal to tackle dirty air. context before jumping into but the only obvious and rational choice”. the science of the matter.” A highly recommended read to properly “Getting behind the current ground air pollution as an issue with a wave of alarmist news Indeed, these stories are made history and very important future. articles to contextualise, pleasantly entertaining by Fuller. The Great humanise, and – most Smog was terrifying, contributing to the importantly – politicise air deaths of 12,000 Londoners, but at the pollution.” same time Fueller humourises it, by telling us about newspaper stories of a duck flying An initial point to foreground when into a man in the Fulham area due to a lack reviewing this book is that it is not just of visibility. a techno-scientific analysis of how to It has to be said that it is not afraid measure air pollution or how it medically of being political, which environmental harms us. Fuller moves beyond just science books can be shy of. Fueller explaining the problem through metrics, complains about poor policy decisions. powerfully asserting how it is wrong that all As evidence mounted in the late twentieth of us are subject to polluters “using our air century of the damage posed by diesel to dispose of their waste”. cars, they were still promoted by Fuller begins his book with stories governments as more environmentally- of how air pollution became known as friendly due to their lower tailpipe CO2 a problem, focusing on the important emissions. Today, this has generated the individuals who contributed to the early NO2 crisis in the UK, with Client Earth’s work trying to measure air pollutants and mounting successive and successful legal theorising what their impacts might be on challenges against the UK Govrnment. us. This is a refreshing way into the issue, Policymakers are charged with trusting The invisible killer: The rising global threat setting it up in its historical context before polluters and drowning “out the voices of of air pollution and how we can fight back, jumping into the science of the matter – environmental and health scientists”. Gary Fuller; the effect of which is to give a sense of Overall, the book is a brilliant Melville House UK; how far our understanding of air pollution intervention, getting behind the current 279 pages (Paperback). has come. wave of alarmist news articles to Published 29 November 2018. ARTS & BOOKS 35

Sam Robinson is a Future politics Research Assistant at by Jamie Susskind Bright Blue

ecent years have seen concerns traffic runs through platforms owned by significant control over the capabilities of mount over the role of technology Facebook” and “nearly 80% of search force, scrutiny, and perception-control. R in our economy and society. Where advertising revenue goes to Google’s Of course, many of these tentative once innovations such as the internet and parent company, Alphabet.” In future, ideas are beset with practical difficulties, social media were seen as democratising, wealth could increasingly flow towards a while the sheer breadth of Susskind’s positive forces, today they are viewed with small elite of capital owners as technology work sometimes leaves the reader wanting suspicion and distrust. replaces workers and the ‘network effect’ to drill down deeper into the specifics of – where services become more valuable as a particular problem. Where Susskind “Susskind argues that more people use them – takes hold. succeeds is in demonstrating that we are the powers of the Against this bleak backdrop, it would be at a historical crossroads, but that with supercharged state very easy to fall into a Luddite polemic, or enough political will we can yet steer and tech firms must be to argue for large-scale state intervention ourselves away from an Orwellian techno- counterbalanced by greater to break up the tech firms and bring dystopia. It’s now up to us to stop being powers for people to hold key assets into public ownership. But passengers and get in the driver’s seat. them to account.” Susskind recognises that technology can still have a positive role to play. In any Susskind is quick to highlight the very case, it is vital that the market continues real basis of these fears. As technology to be a “vital engine of innovation” and grows to be increasingly sophisticated to ensure that, in trying to stop tech and omnipresent, both the state and ‘big firms becoming too powerful, we do not tech’ firms will have at their disposal new create another monster in the form of a and terrifying powers. Certain technologies state “supercharged” with all the powers will be able to force us to do – or not technology has to offer. do – certain things, for instance self- Rather, Susskind argues that the driving cars that refuse to deviate from the powers of the supercharged state and tech speed limit or park in a non-designated firms must be counterbalanced by greater space. Others will be able to scrutinise powers for people to hold them to account. us in unprecedented ways – think of the The supercharged state should be controversy around Amazon’s Alexa, for tamed by a fundamental rethink of how instance. As the debate around social we do democracy. Susskind offers several media shows, technology already has the strategies for this, which range from familiar potential to decide what news reaches us, concepts such as deliberative or direct thereby shaping our very worldview. democracy to radical ideas such as ‘Wiki’ Control and coercion will also have an democracy, in which citizens co-write economic dimension. We have already legislation as they might a Wikipedia article. Future politics, grown accustomed to terms such as To restrain tech firms, Susskind suggests Jamie Susskind; ‘social media giants’ or ‘tech titans’, and regulation to make them more transparent, Oxford University Press; this is hardly surprising, considering that as well as a “digital separation of powers” 544 pages (Hardback). “nearly 80% of mobile-based social media to ensure that no one firm is allowed Published 20 September 2018.