Extreme Events and Social Institutions: Lessons from East Africa

Volume XXXIV • Number 1 September 2009 Extreme Events and Social — Invited Comment Institutions: Lessons from East Africa his is a story of institutions and social science drought, can have even more severe impacts than drought research—about how societies have developed social in- at the household level. T stitutions to cope with environmental stresses, and about During the early 1980’s I was working with a Turkana how they can be undermined by well-intentioned efforts leaving man I’ll call Angor. He was quite wealthy with four wives, people more vulnerable than they were before. It is also about the about 1,800 goats and sheep, 80 camels, and 120 cattle. importance of extreme environmental events for the development After I had been there for about three months, he told me of social science theory. that he was going to slaughter a goat for me. This was very gratifying for me, considering the Turkana do not normally Web of Obligation offer things to others. If you want something you have to First, a little background. I am a cultural anthropolo- demand it. What puzzled me was that Angor then walked gist who specializes in understanding the system of live- down the dry wash and “borrowed” a goat from a relatively stock management, land use practices, and decision making poor man named Lori. Lori had one wife, about 80 goats among pastoral peoples in East Africa. I have spent much and sheep, 15 camels, and about 25 cattle. When I asked of the last 30 years working with the Turkana of northern Angor why he borrowed a goat from Lori, he said he didn’t Kenya and more recently the Maasai in northern Tanzania. have one fat enough. Looking over his flock I could see Drought is a common occurrence there and can have dev- many goats at least as fat as the one he began to slaughter. I astating effects. For the Turkana, the area is also subject to remember feeling more than a little disconcerted, fearing I intense intertribal raiding and, while more localized than (See “East Africa” continued on page seven) Heat Vulnerability” in EHP wrote, “The Intergovernmental Hot Times in the Old Towns Panel on Climate Change reports that heat waves … are As the world heats up from climate change, residents projected to continue to increase in frequency, intensity, of the Pacific Coast and northeastern regions of the and duration worldwide which could result in future United States are at greater risk of illness and death from increases in heat-related morbidity and mortality. However, heat stroke, according to a study published in June in heat-related deaths are preventable. Several cities have Environmental Health Perspectives. implemented heat emergency response plans, and mortality Heat waves are already the natural hazard that kills has decreased during subsequent heat waves. the most people worldwide and in the U.S. In a 2008 “But many elderly residents in four cities with heat paper in the International Journal of Health Geographics, wave warning systems reported that they did not take Kevin Borden and Susan Cutter wrote, “Chronic everyday recommended actions during heat waves, implying that hazards such as severe weather (summer and winter) and interventions for the most vulnerable populations need heat account for the majority of natural hazards fatalities.” improvement … A national map of county-level heat According to a 2002 paper by Rupa Basu and Jonathan vulnerability allows us to situate vulnerability to heat Samet, an average of in geographic space and identify areas most in need of 400 deaths occur in the intervention.” United States each year Residents of downtowns in major metropolitan that can be attributed areas are almost always more vulnerable to heat waves, to heat, with most of regardless of the overall vulnerability index of that city, the the fatalities occurring authors say. among the age group In California, with rising average temperatures, Basu over 65 years of age. says rising heat—somewhat counterintuitively—will have A 1995 heat wave in the greatest negative effect on the coasts rather than inland. Chicago killed about People living on the coasts are used to cooler weather, and 600 people in that one air conditioning is less pervasive. city over a five-day In a written answer to a question about urban impacts, period. About 35,000 Colleen Reid said, “Our maps show that almost every deaths are attributed to metropolitan area for which we had all of the data points the infamous European has areas with higher vulnerability and areas with lower heat wave of 2003. vulnerability. For the most part, these areas with higher The EHP paper, vulnerability tend to be in the downtown areas, many written by Colleen Reid of the U.S. Environmental of which have less green space and higher percentages Protection Agency and colleagues, found four factors of people living below the poverty line, both of which explaining more than 75 percent of the variance in heat increase vulnerability to heat. Within metropolitan areas, vulnerability. They were: (1) lower education/higher we can say that these areas are more vulnerable.” poverty/higher proportion of people of color/less green space; (2) social isolation; (3) lack of air conditioning; and (4) a higher proportion of elderly, especially those with diabetes. When they applied these risk factors spatially across the country, they found that people living in the crowded northeast corridor between Washington and Boston, and those on the Pacific Coast—mostly between San Francisco and Los Angeles, but also in Portland, Oregon, and Seattle—were most at risk from heat waves. Rupa Basu, an epidemiologist now with the state of California, says that according to studies she’s conducted there, heat does not affect everyone equally. “We looked at different racial and ethnic groups,” she says. “African Americans and Asians were at greatest risk, with a twofold increase in heat mortality compared to Caucasians.” Her work covers only California, but she says that the results have been similar in other places. In the heat, people die from cardiovascular problems, Basu says. The most likely killers are eschemic heart Southern Tornadoes Drying Up? disease, myocardial infarction and congestive heart failure. Years with a dry fall and winter lead to fewer Hospitalization for illnesses often result from respiratory tornadoes in the southeast United States, according to problems, she says. research from geographers at the University of Georgia. The authors of “Mapping Community Determinants of (Continued on page four) 2 Natural Hazards Observer • September 2009 Disasters Driving World Migration Climate change and its attendant fishing. Northern and central Mexico are environmental disruption may drive Climate Change May expected to see declines in precipitation the migration of 200 million people Make It Worse over the coming century of as much as 70 worldwide by the year 2050. According percent, affecting the area’s primarily rain- to the UN report In Search of Shelter, “The impacts fed agriculture. This could have the ancillary affect of climate change are already causing migration of increasing Mexican immigration into the United and displacement. Although the exact number of States, already a contentious issue. people that will be on the move by mid-century is The data are not complete enough to know uncertain, the scope and scale could vastly exceed whether people are actually being motivated now to anything that has occurred before. People in the migrate because of climate stress. “What we’ve been least developed countries and island states will be hearing from the field is anecdotal,” Warner says. affected first and worst.”www.ciesin.columbia.edu ( ) Camps on the Mediterranean island of Malta, for Economic and political factors are the main instance, are often staging areas for refugees trying causes of human displacement around the world. to get into Europe. “We went to Malta and talked But, “Disasters continue to be a major driver of with people operating the camps,” Warner says. shorter-term displacement and migration,” the “They said that over the last five or six years, they’ve report says. As climate change increases the noticed changes in the characteristics of migrants frequency and intensity of natural hazards such who are arriving. as cyclones, floods, and droughts, the number of “Instead of healthy young men, 15 to 45 years temporarily displaced people will rise. This will be old, they’ve started noticing more women, young especially true in countries that fail to invest now children, babies, and more elderly. They’ve also been in disaster risk reduction and where the official noticing more people traveling in groups, whole response to disasters is limited.” families, and some indications that there are clusters One issue is whether the cause of displacement of neighbors or people from the same village.” will require different types of humanitarian relief. This could, of course, have many causes—that Koko Warner, an economist with the United Nations countries have tightened admission standards, or University and the lead author of the report, says, that general economic conditions are worse. But “The cause (of migration) does matter. Right now some of these people would admit that they “had we have certain protection regimes for internally a hard time feeding their family … that’s as far as displaced people and refugees. There are resources we get in whether climate change was the driver of and protection mechanisms for political refugees, displacement right now.” and a clear case for being persecuted for religion, In Search of Shelter suggests several policy race, political affiliation or group identity. If the initiatives to deal with the issues, including avoiding person can prove their persecution, countries are dangerous change, focusing on human security, required to provide assistance.” prioritizing the world’s vulnerable populations, and However, “Environmentally induced migrants including migration in adaptation strategies.

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