Darlington Borough Council Darlington Retail and Town Centre Study Final Report September 2014 Address: Quay West at MediaCityUK, Trafford Wharf Road, Trafford Park, Manchester, M17 1HH Tel: 0161 872 3223 E-Mail: [email protected] Web: www.wyg.com Document Control Project: Darlington Retail and Town Centre Study Client: Darlington Borough Council Job Number: A084616 \\manchester32\planning\Job Files - Manchester\A084616 - Darlington Retail File Origin: Study\Reports\Final\FINAL FINAL\Darlington Draft Retail Study_Final_September.doc WYG Planning and Environment creative minds safe hands Contents Page 1.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 1 2.0 Current and Emerging Retail Trends ................................................................................................ 3 3.0 Planning Policy Context .................................................................................................................. 17 4.0 Original Market Research ................................................................................................................ 29 5.0 Health Check Assessments.............................................................................................................. 43 6.0 Population and Expenditure ............................................................................................................ 74 7.0 Retail Capacity in Darlington Borough .............................................................................................. 84 8.0 Commercial Leisure ........................................................................................................................ 101 9.0 Future Retail Strategy and Recommendations .................................................................................. 107 Appendix 1: Household Survey Appendix 2: Map of Study Area and Zones Appendix 3: Map of Greater Darlington Zones Appendix 4: Darlington Town Centre Diversity of Use Plan Appendix 5: Darlington Town Centre Vacancies Plan Appendix 6: Quantitative Capacity Assessment – Population Growth Scenario 1 Appendix 7: Quantitative Capacity Assessment – Population Growth Scenario 2 WYG Planning and Environment creative minds safe hands 1.0 Introduction Instruction 1.01 WYG Planning (hereafter referred to as ‘WYG’) was commissioned by Darlington Borough Council (‘the Council’) in November 2013 to undertake a Retail and Town Centre Study for Darlington Borough. The Study acts to update and effectively supersede the previous Darlington Retail Study which reported in November 2008 and was the subject of an update in July 2010. 1.02 A key purpose of this Study is to provide an assessment of retail and leisure needs and capacity in the period to 2026, and to review the current performance of Darlington town centre, Cockerton and North Road district centres, and six further local centres across the Borough. This is of particular importance given the downturn in the UK economy since the previous Darlington Retail Study reported, which has had a notable impact upon many town centres and the retail sector in general. The Study will act as the evidence base to assist in the formulation of future development plan policy, as well as providing baseline information to assist in the determination of planning applications for retail development. The Study also provides recommendations in respect to the Council’s future strategy for Darlington town centre in order to help safeguard its future vitality and viability. 1.03 The Study draws upon new empirical research, with NEMS Market Research Limited (NEMS) undertaking surveys of 1,000 households within a defined Study Area in November 2013. The Study Area for the household survey comprises nine zones which are based on postcode sectors grouped to reflect areas which are likely to exhibit similar patterns of shopping behaviour. The Study also draws upon the most recent Experian population and expenditure data (published February 2013) in order to establish the up-to-date position with regard to both convenience and comparison goods capacity. Structure of Report 1.04 Our report is structured as follows: Section 2 provides a context for the Retail Study by providing an analysis of key retail trends; Section 3 considers the up-to-date position in respect of relevant national retail and town centre planning policy; Section 4 sets out a review of the survey research and considers changes in shopping behaviour that have occurred since the undertaking of the previous Study; Section 5 sets out an overview of the vitality and viability of the Borough’s town, district and local centres; 1 Darlington Borough Council A084616 25/09/2014 Section 6 identifies current and future population and expenditure levels within the Study Area; Section 7 provides our assessment of the quantitative and qualitative need for further convenience and comparison goods retail floorspace over the assessment period; Section 8 considers the need for additional commercial leisure development; and Section 9 sets out our recommendations in respect of Darlington’s future retail and town centre strategy. 2 Darlington Borough Council A084616 25/09/2014 2.0 Current and Emerging Retail Trends Introduction 2.01 The retail property landscape across the UK has evolved significantly over the past 50 years, from post-war redevelopment in town centres, through to the emergence of retail warehouse parks and out-of-town regional shopping malls. For most of this period, the retail and leisure sectors have experienced considerable expenditure growth, which has been attributed to a number of factors, including greater disposable income, availability of credit, new technology and a general overall increase in our standard of living. However, recent economic conditions have had a clear impact on expenditure and convenience goods spending per capita has actually reduced in recent years. The way in which goods are purchased has also altered due to the increased popularity of ‘e-tailing’, which now claims more than one in every ten pounds spent in the UK. 2.02 The retail and leisure market and the need for new development continually evolves as a result of numerous factors including demographics, consumer demands, car ownership, planning policy and technological advancements. The share of retail spending has undergone a significant shift in the decade since 2002, with Verdict identifying that town centre spending as a proportion of overall spending declined from 47.7% to 39.9% at 2012. In contrast, spending in out of centre locations has increased over the same period by 2.1% and non-store locations (principally internet retailers) by 6.6% 1. These changes have had a major impact on the format and location of retail and leisure floorspace, which has led to recent Governments reaffirming their commitment to the ‘town centre first’ policy approach that is now outlined in the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) (March 2012). Current Retail Picture 2.03 A recent report by Colliers 2 provides information regarding recent trends, together with forecasts for the future of retailing in the UK. The findings confirm that the retail sector has been significantly affected by the wider economic climate and that there is considerable uncertainty about the strength and durability of future growth. It is noted that whilst sales volumes and footfall were high at the start of 2011, the UK economy entered a double dip recession in the latter months of 2011 and the retail market has since continued to decline. The significant reduction in Government spending is also 1 ‘UK Out of Town Retailing’, Verdict Datamonitor, April 2012 2 ‘National Retail Barometer: Summer 2013’, Colliers, August 2013 3 Darlington Borough Council A084616 25/09/2014 impacting on economic growth, and the UK unemployment rate was recorded at 7.7% in September 2013. 2.04 These factors have had a significant impact on the public’s general confidence, thereby reducing their propensity to spend their earnings on retail goods. Since 2010 there have also been increases in taxation (for example in VAT, national insurance contributions and capital gains tax) which also impact upon households’ spending. Furthermore, in recent years inflation has consistently been at a level beyond average earnings growth and a delay in reviewing business rates has been identified by Portas 3 as a key factor affecting the success of many operators. 2.05 Recent economic conditions have resulted in significant structural changes to the high street, whereby the pressure on retailers to remain solvent has meant that many are showing increased signs of caution in their investment decisions. In particular, retailers are rationalising their physical store portfolios by reducing their number of stores, abandoning their representation in weaker centres and concentrating on acquiring sites in city centres and major regional shopping centres. The Grimsey Review 4 identified that the national vacancy rate at 2013 equated to over 22,000 empty shops across the top 650 town centres. The Centre for Retail Research 5 estimates that overall store numbers will fall by 61,930 between 2012 and 2018, with the main impact to be upon non-food stores. The report also estimates that 316,000 people will become unemployed, permanently or temporarily, as a result of these store closures. 2.06 To address this, many retailers are re-negotiating their lease terms with landlords in order