POLICY PAPER
European issues n°302 External Interventions in th 11 February 2014 Countries in Crisis
Michel Foucher
1) DOCTRINES AND REALITY GOVERNING battlefield as in Syria. Realism, in other words, the grea- INTERVENTION: A VARIETY OF CONTEXTS test circumspection, has to be applied in circumstances like this. The history of recent interventions (September 2001 being a convenient starting point from a western point Divergence has emerged over the principle of the res- of view) undertaken by some States in third countries ponsibility to protect (UN, 2005). Brazilian diplomacy shows that the game of imperatives has been singular has promoted the idea of responsibility to protect. But a in each case. consensus remains about respecting States’ sovereignty and territorial integrity. This was drawn up in the 18th Proof of this can be found in the remarkable variation century by Alexandre Gusmâo in the legal formula of uti of positions that the States have adopted over the possidetis. It was taken up by the African Union (Cairo period in question; there has been no set context on Declaration 1964) and is a basic concept of the majority the part of the intervening or opposing States: unani- of European States, (notably in the face of the risk of di- mity in 2001 in Afghanistan, deep division amongst the vision or the reshaping of the Middle East into new “Emi- western allies in 2003 in Iraq, abstention on the part of rates”). I feel that the real division is between the States the emerging powers (including Brazil), and Germany which believe that their diplomacy and the defence policy at the Security Council in 2011 in Libya, French soli- must also serve in the exercise of international responsi- tude in 2013 in Mali, although it did benefit from the bilities and the others, which form the majority. logistic support of some allies however. However we cannot ignore history or geography. Half The same applies to doctrines. The Brazilian whitepa- of the seriously open crises in the world in 2013 were per on national defence as it stood in 2012 devoted a a three to six hour plane journey away from Brussels. great amount of space to the strategic context of the We could remain indifferent. However in Europe this is 21st century [1]. It advocates cooperative multipolarity, neither sensible nor viable long term given the proximi- associates cooperation and defence capabilities and sets ty, historic and human interactions between people on out positions on the international system. Seen from either side of the Mediterranean and the Sahara, which Brasilia the only legitimate interventions are strictly is no longer a frontier. controlled peacekeeping operations under the aegis of the UN: impartiality, no substitution of the parties in An analysis of the dangers and risks involved in the conflict. The most recent European strategic reviews crises in question (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Mali, and whitepapers put forward hypotheses of external etc.) show quite the opposite – they illustrate the im- intervention under the explicit mandate of the UN, only portance of the connections that have formed between in the event of an emergency or preferably in a coali- the various theatres. Intervening countries have learnt tion, insisting on the fact that military action is only a from their experience which explains their policy of pru- means to relieving a crisis situation in order to facilitate dence in 2013 in Syria and a widespread desire to with- political compromise. In the French vision of the African draw from Afghanistan by 2014. crises (which occupied 62% of debating time at the UN Security Council in 2012), work is invested in involving It is also important to assess the dangers of these inter- regional African peacekeeping forces and diplomatic ventions in the light of their political results, the present
1. This updated text comes mediation in regional institutions. In the Middle East in state of affairs, which also helps involve national and from a conference at the Forte 2013 the goal of reaching political settlement was easier regional actors giving them back their rightful place, Copacabana International to declare than to achieve since all sides involved in the since the latter are often forgotten in the general debate Conference on Security in Rio on 28-29/11/2013 conflict believed that everything was to played out in a about legitimacy and sovereignty.
FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN / EUROPEAN ISSUES N°302 / 11TH FEBRUARY 2014 External Interventions in Countries in Crisis
The key players are those who have long lasting in- in terms of information provision as we discovered in terests (as shown by the case of Pakistan as it has 2013. Moscow was marginalised. always been in Afghanistan, or Syria in Lebanon, or Iran in Central Iraq and even Algeria in the Sahara- In Libya the initiative came from Paris and London 02 Sahel region). The influence of regional powers is often alone, with the initial argument to implement the new underestimated, undoubtedly a result of Western nar- principle of “the responsibility to protect”. It was certain cissism. that Kaddafi’s regime would have massacred the rebels in Benghazi and Cyrenaica as he had warned. It was acknowledged that Europeans already affected by the 2) CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE IMPERATIVES massacre of the Bosnians would not recover as quickly OF INTERVENTION from a moral point of view if further exactions were committed in Libya. But it is also clear that the inter- The list of imperatives includes the motivations and ar- pretation made of resolution 1973 led to the definition guments on the part of external players, notably when of the goal to achieve - a change in regime, in a context referring to chapters of the UN’s charter (or NATO’s of civil war. Germany, Brazil, China, India and Russia article 5 on Allied solidarity), collective moral prin- abstained at the Security Council. We might note that ciples (responsibility to protect 2005), strategic goals the Arab League supported the Franco-British approach (against adversaries defining certain States and their and that armed forces from Qatar and the Arab Emi- citizens as targets) or less often, economic interests rates undertook military and support operations. (energy, communication routes). In Mali the initiative for military intervention in January In the case of Afghanistan, which has experienced a 2013 was strictly French. It was decided as an imme- long series of external interventions since 1978, the diate response to the advance made by armed jihadist situation caused by 9/11 led the USA’s allies to mani- columns on the capital of Bamako, led by AQMI, the fest their solidarity in the wake of the attack, justi- MUJAO and Ansar-Edine in response to resolution 2085 fied by article 5 of the NATO treaty and based on the (20/12/2012) which was firm and detailed on the party UN resolution 1386, which was adopted unanimously. of the Security Council and planned, amongst other The launch of operation Enduring Freedom by the USA things, to deploy the AFISMA, supported by regional aimed to eliminate Al-Qaeda’s central bases, to van- and international forces. Military action by Paris was quish the Taliban regime and to “rebuild” a State that requested by the interim Malian president. The aim was was deemed as having “failed” on the basis of the Bonn to stop, repel and finally break AQMI’s hard core in the Agreements. mountain refuge of the Saharan part of Mali, authority over which the previous regime had decided to relin- In the case of Iraq it became rapidly clear that the quish. The imperative was to re-establish Mali’s territo- arguments of the Republican administration were fal- rial integrity and to weaken the hard core of Al-Qaeda’s lacious (destroying the arms of massive destruction North African branch. We should remember that France supposedly held by Saddam Hussein, the absence of has no economic interests in Mali unlike China or Alge- which could not be acknowledged in the face of the ria (it is the African country receiving most help from Iranian adversary) and excessive (reshaping the Middle France in terms of cooperation) but that it has in-depth East). Both France and Germany refused to join in expertise (hostages) and a large Malian community the military expedition (which Senator Obama quali- living in France, which approved this intervention qua- fied as disastrous) whilst NATO’s new European allies lified as “salutary”. (“the new Europe”) were unable, as a last resort, to meet the requirements of their protector. Later it was In Syria’s case the positions of the players quoted above seen that Paris and Berlin were right to have opposed have changed, except for Russia, which has decided this operation but they paid the price (“punish France, to support the regime in a bid to achieve an impro- ignore Germany, forgive Russia”, according to Conde- bable negotiated solution. After having initially been in lezza Rice). French bashing lasted several years with favour, Paris and London progressively deemed that it some serious economic consequences and a damaged was not wise to intervene in a civil war between Syrian reputation. Berlin had to accept advanced cooperation Muslims nor to take the risk of delivering arms which
FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN / EUROPEAN ISSUES N°302 / 11TH FEBRUARY 2014 External Interventions in Countries in Crisis
might be used by internationalist jihadist groups. Eu- the idea of the “arc of crisis” to define an area ex- ropeans are trying to support a credible, respectable, tending from the Sahara to Pakistan in which jihadist representative opposition politically without planning groups with international goals might try to gather and either a flight exclusion zone or direct military action. coordinate. Al-Qaeda indeed gave its franchise to more The Libyan precedents and especially the experience in or less autonomous groups, the most active of which 03 Iraq have led to restraint. The European position does are AQPA, AQMI and the Iraqi branch of Al-Qaeda, the not support regional division but aims to help towards Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) which is fi- a re-balancing of power. Intervention by the Iraqi and ghting Kurds, Alawites and Christians in Iraq and Syria. Iranian Shi’a regimes on the one hand and Saudi and Likewise, what remains of AQMI’s katibas chased from Qatari Sunnis on the other lend the Syrian civil war a Mali, are trying to establish a base in Libya’s south rather worrying regional dimension. The Geneva and west beyond the control of the authorities in Tripoli. Montreux negotiations under the aegis of the UN with Arms stolen from the Libyan arsenal have been found the rival support of Moscow and Washington led to no- in Mali. Financial aid has been given by AQMI to the thing and have not stopped the bombing of towns by Al-Shabab groups in Somalia. All of these crises are the regime’s armed forces. The division of the country regional in nature and areas of neighbouring countries into zones held by the regime or by the radical Isla- are used as sanctuaries for opposing groups. mists leaves the democratic opposition in a precarious situation. A worsening in this type of critical regional problem, with a shifting centre of crisis, is undoubtedly the main threat Finally in Central African Republic (CAR), the rapid to regional stability. The other danger comes from the downturn in the political and social situation after failure of the intervention policy. What happens when Bangui was taken by the Seleka coalition led to total foreign troops leave the areas of intervention? anarchy and mutual exactions (the Seleka coalition against the “anti-Balaka”) and a serious “pre-geno- Let us consider the situation in Afghanistan – 12 years cide” risk had been identified. Unlike Mali where it was on the main players are now making a military with- a matter of fighting internationalist jihadists the French drawal and elections are planned for 2014. Meetings military intervention launched on 5th December 2013 started in Qatar between the USA and the Taliban re- after the unanimous adoption of resolution 2127 was presentatives, then Tokyo, London and Paris without humanitarian in its motivation and was supported by negotiation ever kicking off. Al-Qaeda’s main branch is the Sangaris operation (1600 soldiers) from the Afri- now weakened but its offshoots in Yemen, Iraq, Syria can Force, MISCA (6000 soldiers). and Maghreb are still active.
What we have to note is the variety of external inter- It is likely that if the USA (and their allies) had focused vention contexts – according to the crisis. Of course long term on the main goal of destroying the core of Al- the role of leading personalities at the time decisions Qaeda, the political and economic results would have are taken has to be taken into account, especially in been more positive. Today experts wonder – in Europe democratic countries and the desire of the latter to at least – whether it was not an “unnecessary war”. distinguish themselves from their predecessor. We can And no one dares to forecast greater stability for the also see that the initial goals often tend to drift off country after 2014, unless there is a radical change in course, except in Mali where the initial territorial goal policy on the part of the civilian and military authorities was achieved. But acting alone made the pursuit of in Pakistan, which for its part, unlike the intervening simpler goals easier. countries, has permanent national interests in Afgha- nistan. China is also pushing forward its pawns (copper mines; infrastructure projects via Tajikistan). 3) DANGERS AND RESULTS OF EXTERNAL INTERVENTIONS, TO BE CONSIDERED AS In terms of Iraq the victors of the American interven- ASSESSMENT CRITERIA tions are in order of rank: the Kurds – who are now almost independent and able to negotiate oil contracts Several Defence and National Security Whitepapers pu- directly without consulting Baghdad; most of the Shi’a blished in Europe at the end of the 2000’s highlighted in power; the Iranian regime, which avenged itself for
11TH FEBRUARY 2014 / EUROPEAN ISSUES N°302 / FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN External Interventions in Countries in Crisis
the Saddam Hussein period; and finally the Chinese circle is economic development. On 15th May 2013, 80 oil companies which won most of the drilling contracts countries met in Brussels and promised 3.2 billion € in and which are buying half of the oil produced by Iraq aid to Mali over 2 years (280 million for France) – ie (according to the International Energy Agency in 2020, more than one third of the gross GDP of this Sahelian 04 80% of Iraqi oil will be exported to Asia, mainly to State. China). As for the vanquished these are the Sunni minority in the central provinces and the Ba’athists, In CAR a transition government has been in place since who do not accept their fall from power, as well as the 23rd January 2014. The aim of re-establishing mini- Saudis and the Gulf countries. Hence the continuation mal security is now being achieved via operations to of unprecedented levels violence in 2013. The failure of make safe parts of the capital that still have not disar- the Bush administration makes it easier to understand med and also roads leading to Chad and Cameroon for its successor in its bid to engage in dialogue with the supply convoys. The cantonment of the former Seleka Iranian regime led by President Rouhani. soldiers by MISCA with the support of the Sangaris troops is continuing; they will probably return from In Libya the authorities in Tripoli have not yet managed whence they came. A transition process has been star- to assert themselves over regional groups and tribes ted and there are more and more conciliation mee- which are refusing to disarm (around 200 katibas tings hosted by representatives of the three religions escape central power). Several debates are ongoing and local players (Fula, anti-Balaka). Finally on 30th in a divided society between the western, more North January 2014 Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski African part and the urbanised, eastern part which is decided to dispatch a military contingent to support more sensitive to the theses of the Egyptian Muslim the French troops for a three month period with the Brothers, who are themselves losing power in spite of support of a C130. This was a major decision after in- support from Qatar. depth dialogue between experts and decision makers in both countries over the last two years. Estonia and In Mali territorial integrity has been restored, a UN Belgium followed suite. mission (MINUSMA) has been deployed and the second round of the presidential election ended without pro- Again we should note the great variety of results that test on 12th August with the success of former Prime have followed external intervention. We must also Minister, Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta who is eager to “give insist on the fact that we have to involve regional make Mali proud again” and to change political prac- players in the introduction of durable diplomatic and tice. As noted by some experts, the main problem in political solutions. Mali was not in the north but in the south due to ex- cesses in political governance. France insisted on an early election. Troops have remained in place, in sup- THE ROLE OF THE MAIN DIPLOMATIC port of MINUSMA since July 1st under the command of CIRCLES a Rwandan general, with 6,300 African soldiers, and a sound mandate (resolution 2100 dated 25th April 2013 The crises we have discussed, which have been the places it under chapter VII of the UN’s Charter; it was main focus of intervention bear several features. First- adopted unanimously). This episode in international ly they have all taken place within three to six hour’s intervention, justified by the inability of a regime to flight from Europe. Half of the serious crises in the ensure its own security, was an electro-shock for the world are also within this radius. It is therefore difficult African Union and several other countries, in that there to justify indifference because these theatres are close was commitment to strengthening African regional to home and several of them have comprised explicit intervention capabilities, bringing them to diplomatic threats to European interests and its citizens. mediation (North/South Agreement in Burkina Faso in July before the elections). It remains, as elsewhere in Both of the French interventions were an opportunity Africa, that the triangle of “security, democracy and for other European players to become aware of the development” has now to function. The Malian army stability issues in Africa. The presence in Mali of Euro- is being rebuilt and its training undertaken by the Eu- pean trainers, troops from Poland, Estonia and Belgium ropean mission, EUTM. The final side of the virtuous in CAR and the option of extending the perimeter of
FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN / EUROPEAN ISSUES N°302 / 11TH FEBRUARY 2014 External Interventions in Countries in Crisis
the Athena fund (which finances part of the EU’s) are of the African Union have to realise they must be more the first steps, in expectation of the establishment of involved in the settlement of crises. France, Germa- a permanent financing fund requested by Paris. The ny, UK, Brazil, USA all have to encourage and support first declarations made by some German Defence and them in this sense. Foreign Affairs Ministers about assuming greater res- 05 ponsibility in the management of external crises is a Moreover “external” players do not just comprise the welcome change of direction. The recent visit to Dakar western countries; the idea of intervention should be and Bamako by the German Defence Minister is a crys- extended to players who have permanent interests in tal clear message of support. the States in question (Pakistan, Iran and also Russia, China, Uzbekistan in Afghanistan; Iran, Turkey and The idea of the arc of crisis has now proven its limits Saudi Arabia in Iraq; Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, Saudi in that it describes a situation of territorial connections Arabia and the Gulf countries in Syria; Egypt, Alge- which it is vital to prevent. The most difficult situation ria, Qatar in Libya; Saudi Arabia and Oman in Yemen; is in the Middle East and in this regard the results of Saudi Arabia and Algeria in Mali). These States are western interventions there deserve severe criticism, vital either in fomenting continued unrest or, on the likewise, direct intervention by Russia in Syria, along- contrary, in fostering compromises. side Iran and the Hezbollah. Moscow has the opportu- nity to recover its ability to play a harmful role (as in Finally we should remember in this regard that the good old days) in an anti-Sunni posture. other States have undertaken external interventions themselves – hence Uganda and Burundi in Somalia Critical transitions in the Arab world are changing the (AMISOM), and Ethiopia, which also has many troops situation and explain the American attitude of ‘wait- on the borders of the two Sudanese States and South and-see’ (preferable to neo-conservative transforma- Africa in Central African Republic. We can no longer say tional activism) and the Chinese game of stealing the that external intervention is a western monopoly. And economic ante. that is good news.
Those in power, which have extensive diplomatic corps, Michel Foucher must relinquish shaping and commit to accompanying Geographer and diplomat, former advisor to the Foreign transitions and solutions to these crises. They must Affairs Ministry and Director of the Policy Planning Staff of the also ensure that they act in line with UN mandates. Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Former Director of studies of the But there is more to it than that. As illustrated by the Institute for Higher National Defence Studies, advisor to the situation on the African continent the Member States African Union’s Peace and Security Division (Addis Ababa).
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11TH FEBRUARY 2014 / EUROPEAN ISSUES N°302 / FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN