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The Influence of Marriage Age on the Timing of First Birth and Birth Spacing

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The Influence of Marriage Age on the Timing of First Birth and Birth Spacing MARRIAGE AND FERTILITY DYNAMICS: THE INFLUENCE OF MARRIAGE AGE ON THE TIMING OF FIRST BIRTH AND BIRTH SPACING DHS ANALYTICAL STUDIES 56 August 2016 This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by Kerry L.D. MacQuarrie. DHS Analytical Studies No. 56 Marriage and Fertility Dynamics: The Influence of Marriage Age on the Timing of First Birth and Birth Spacing Kerry L.D. MacQuarrie1 ICF International Rockville, Maryland, USA August 2016 1 The DHS Program, Avenir Health Corresponding author: Kerry L.D. MacQuarrie, The DHS, ICF International, 530 Gaither Road, Suite 500, Rockville, MD 20850, USA; phone: +1 301-572-0282; fax: +1 301-407-6501; email: [email protected] Acknowledgments: The author extends her gratitude to numerous people who contributed to the production of this study in various capacities: Margaret Greene of GreeneWorks for her thoughtful review of an earlier draft; Stew Tolnay, Charlie Hirschman, Aimée Dechter, Sara Curran, and Darryl Holman of University of Washington for their feedback on the preliminary study idea; Tom Pullum, ICF International, for technical and programming guidance on managing birth histories data; Daniel Powers, University of Texas, for suggestions for the multivariate decomposition models; and Amy Finnegan, Duke University, for assistance organizing relevant literature. Editor: Diane Stoy Document Production: Natalie La Roche This study was carried out with support provided by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) through The DHS Program (#AID-OAA-C-13-00095). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. The DHS Program assists countries worldwide in the collection and use of data to monitor and evaluate population, health, and nutrition programs. For additional information about The DHS Program, contact The DHS Program, ICF International, 530 Gaither Road, Suite 500, Rockville, MD 20850, USA; phone: 301-407-6500; fax: 301-407-6501; email: [email protected]; Internet: www.dhsprogram.com. Recommended citation: MacQuarrie, Kerry L.D. 2016. Marriage and Fertility Dynamics: The Influence of Marriage Age on the Timing of First Birth and Birth Spacing. DHS Analytical Studies No. 56. Rockville, Maryland, USA: ICF International. Contents Tables ................................................................................................................................................................... v Figures ............................................................................................................................................................... vii Preface ................................................................................................................................................................ ix Abstract .............................................................................................................................................................. xi Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................... xiii 1. Background ............................................................................................................................................ 1 2. Methods and Data ................................................................................................................................. 5 2.1. Country and Survey Selection ................................................................................................... 5 2.2. Sampling and Sample Weighting .............................................................................................. 6 2.3. Sample Restriction ..................................................................................................................... 7 2.4. Measures .................................................................................................................................... 7 2.5. Scope of the Analysis and Analytic Strategy .......................................................................... 11 3. Trends in Median Age at Marriage and Age at First Birth............................................................. 15 3.1. Marriage and the First Birth in South Asia .............................................................................. 15 3.2. Marriage Age and First Birth in Southeast Asia ...................................................................... 17 3.3. Age at First Sex ....................................................................................................................... 18 4. Characteristics Associated with Age at Marriage ............................................................................ 19 4.1. Marriage Age and Gender Context .......................................................................................... 19 4.2. Marriage Age and Education and Occupation ......................................................................... 26 4.3. Marriage Age and Wealth ........................................................................................................ 30 4.4. Marriage Age and Religion ..................................................................................................... 33 4.5. Marriage Age and Residence ................................................................................................... 34 4.6. Marriage Age and Subnational Region .................................................................................... 36 4.7. Marriage Age and Husbands’ Education and Occupation ....................................................... 39 5. Characteristics Associated with the First Birth Interval ................................................................. 45 5.1. First Birth Interval and Gender Context .................................................................................. 46 5.2. First Birth Interval and Education and Occupation ................................................................. 52 5.3. First Birth Interval and Wealth ................................................................................................ 57 5.4. First Birth Interval and Religion .............................................................................................. 59 5.5. First Birth Interval and Residence ........................................................................................... 61 5.6. First Birth Interval and Region ................................................................................................ 62 5.7. First Birth Interval and Husbands’ Education and Occupation ............................................... 65 6. Association of Marriage Age with the First Birth Interval ............................................................. 71 6.1. Age at Marriage ....................................................................................................................... 71 6.2. Birth Cohort ............................................................................................................................. 74 6.3. Other Covariates ...................................................................................................................... 75 6.4. Underlying Hazard Distribution .............................................................................................. 76 iii 7. Multivariate Decomposition Results .................................................................................................. 77 7.1. Overall Decomposition Results ............................................................................................... 77 7.2. Age at Marriage and Changes in the First Birth Interval ......................................................... 78 7.3. Gender Context and Changes in the First Birth Interval ......................................................... 79 7.4. Other Women’s Socio-Demographic Characteristics and Changes in the First Birth Interval ..................................................................................................................................... 81 7.5. Husband’s Characteristics and Changes in the First Birth Interval ......................................... 81 8. Marriage Age and Subsequent Birth Intervals................................................................................. 85 8.1. Age at Marriage ....................................................................................................................... 85 8.2. Effect of the First Birth Interval and Birth Cohort .................................................................. 88 8.3. Other Covariates ...................................................................................................................... 88 9. Discussion and Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 91 References .......................................................................................................................................................... 95 Appendix Tables ............................................................................................................................................. 101 iv Tables Table 1. Sample parameters for surveys included in the analysis ..................................................... 6 Table 2. Proportion of women age 25-49
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