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Information to Users INFORMATION TO USERS This manuscript has been reproduced from the microfilm master. UMI films the text directly from the original or copy submitted. Thus, some thesis and dissertation copies are in typewriter face, while others may be from any type of computer printer. The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality illustrations and photographs, print bleedthrough, substandard margins, and improper alignment can adversely affect reproduction. In the unlikely event that the author did not send UMI a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if unauthorized copyright material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Oversize materials (e.g., maps, drawings, charts) are reproduced by sectioning the original, beginning at the upper left-hand comer and continuing from left to right in equal sections with small overlaps. Each original is also photographed in one exposure and is included in reduced form at the back of the book. Photographs included in the original manuscript have been reproduced xerographically in this copy. Higher quality 6" x 9" black and white photographic prints are available for any photographs or illustrations appearing in this copy for an additional charge. Contact UMI directly to order. UMI University Microfilms International A Bell & Howell Information Company 3 0 0 Nortfi Z eeb Road, Ann Arbor. Ml 48106-1346 USA 313/761-4700 800/521-0600 Order Number 0211170 Attitudes of civilian and military leaders toward war initiation: Application of Richard Betts’ analysis of American cases to other countries Lee, Jong Sun, Ph.D. The Ohio State University, 1991 Copyright ©1991 by Lee, Jong Sun. All rights reserved. UMI 300 N. Zeeb Rd. Ann Arbor, MI 48106 Attitudes of Civilian and Military Leaders toward War Initiation: Application of Richard Betts' Analysis of American Cases to Other Countries Dissertation Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Jong Sun Lee, B.A., M.A. ***** The Ohio State University 1 9 9 1 Dissertation Committee: Approved by James Harf Joseph Kruzel Advisor Allan Millett Department of Political Sci&ce Copyright by Jong Sun Lee 1 9 9 1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my gratitude to the members of my dissertation committee—James Harf (Chair), Joseph Kruzel, and Allan Millett—for their guidance and encouragement throughout this study. Their insightful comments and suggestions have helped this project immeasurably. A very special, heartfelt note of appreciation is due to Professor James Harf, I shall remain forever appreciative. As a person and as a scholar, he has given me great and deep influences throughout my graduate study at the Ohio State University. His door was always open and his concern for his students has been unsurpassed. My wife, Jung Aee Suh, and son, Kwang-Min, who was born in early 1990 at the OSU Hospital when I was writing this dissertation, have my sincere gratitude for their love and patience. Above all, I want to thank my late father and my mother, without whose loving patience and encouragement I would never have been able to complete this dissertation. The dedication of this study is a small acknowledgement of my affectionate gratitude to them . 11 VITA Nov. 25, 1957 ...................................... Born - Samchunpo, Korea 1981 ..................................................... B. A., Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea 1983 ...................................................... M.A. Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea HELDS OF STUDY Major Field: Political Science Studies in International Relations (Major): Conflict and Peace: Prof. James Harf Defense Strategy & Arms Control: Prof. Joseph Kruzel Peace Studies: Prof. Chadwick Alger Studies in Political Theory (Minor): Prof. John Champlin 111 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................................................................. ii VITA ................................................................................................................ iii LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................ viii CHAPTER Page I. Introduction .................................................................................................. 1 A. Nature of the Problem ....................................................................... 3 1) Theoretical Arguments ................................................................. 3 2) Basic Hypotheses ............................................................................... 14 B. Previous Studies .................................................................................... 18 II. Methodology: Comparative Case Studies ............................................ 29 A. Case Studies in the Field of International Relations.............. ..................................................................30 B. Comparative Case Studies and Quest for Theory 34 C. The Selection of Cases ........................................................................ 40 III. China and the Korean War, 1950............................................................ 43 A. The Background .....................................................................................43 B. Civilians, Military Leaders and War Decisions ............................ 46 1) The first stage: A “low threat” Period (late June-late July) .....................................................................47 2) The second stage: A “medium threat” period (early July-mid Sep.) ................................................................. 50 IV V 3) The third stage: A “high threat” period ^ate Sep.-early Oct.) ................................................................. 53 C. Civilians, Military Leaders and Aggressiveness ............................. 55 1) Civilian and military leaders on the use of force ............... 56 2) The military influence on war decisions ............................... 63 D. Conclusion: Some Comparisons with Betts’ Idea ......................... 65 IV. Britain and the Suez crisis, 1956 68 A. The Background ............................................................................. 68 B. Civilians, Military Leaders and War Decisions............................ 73 1) The first stage: A “low threat” period ^ate July-early Aug.) 73 2) The second stage: A “medium threat” period (mid Aug.-mid Sep.) 75 3) The third stage: A “high threat” period (late Sep.-late Oct.) 78 C. Civilians, Military Leaders and Aggressiveness ....................... 79 1) Civilian and military leaders on the use of force ............... 79 2) The military influence on war decisions .................................. 85 D. Conclusion: Some Comparisons with Betts’ Idea ...................... 86 V. Israel and the Six-Day War, 1967 90 A. The Background ................................................................................ 90 B. Civilians, Military Leaders and War Decisions ............................ 93 1) The first stage: A “low threat” period (15 May-22 May) ........................................................................... 94 2) The second stage: A “medium threat” period (23 May-28 May) ........................................................................... 98 3) The third stage: A “high threat” period (29 May-4 June) ............................................................................102 C. Civilians, Military Leaders and Aggressiveness .................... 106 1) Civilian and military leaders on the use of force ................106 2) The military influence on war decisions ............................ 119 VI D. Conclusion: Some Comparisons with Betts’ Idea ..................... 121 VI. India and Indo-Pakistan War, 1971 ............................................. 124 A. The Background ............................................................................... 124 B. Civilians, Military Leaders and War Decisions ......................... 128 1) The first stage: A”low threat” period (March-May)............................................................................................ 128 2) The second stage: A “medium threat” period (June-Sep.) .......................................................................... 131 3) The third stage: A “high threat” period (Oct.-Nov.) .......................................................................... 133 C. Civilians, Military Leaders and Aggressiveness .................... 136 1) Civilian and military leaders on the use of force ............ 137 2) The military influence on war decisions ............................... 141 D. Conclusion: Some Comparisons with Betts’ Idea .................... 143 VII. Egypt and the Ramadan War, 1973 .................................................. 146 A. The Background .................................................................................. 146 B. Civilians, Military Leaders and War Decisions ....................... 150 1) The first stage: A “low threat” period (Oct. 1970-June 1971).......................................................................... 151 2) The second stage: A “medium threat” period (July 1971-Nov. 1972) ................................................................ 153 3) The third stage: A “high threat” period (Dec. 1972-Oct. 1973) 158 C. Civilians, Military Leaders and Aggressiveness .................... 161 1) Civilian
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