Human Caused Climate Change? A Real Look At The Physics And Evidence

Chuck F. Wiese Meteorologist What’s wrong with this depiction of a temperature trend? NCDC US TEMPERATURES SINCE 1895 BEST Temperature Record Global Land 1960-2011 UAH Satellite Temperatures Land Only 1979-2011 ENSO Historical Record BEST Temperature Record and UAH 1998 to 2010 Globally averaged temperature has declined this decade as atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased USA LOWER 48 Contiguous States Cooling at -.95 degF/decade

The Electromagnetic Spectrum Water vapor absorbs much greater part of IR spectrum Emden’s Demonstration of Greenhouse Effect and Convective Temperature by Water Vapor ALONE The Carbon Dioxide Radiation Absorption Spectra CO2 from Zero to 375 PPMV without Color or Temp Components

-27.569 wm-2 ΔR = F + F – F – F = F – F 12 d1 u1 u2 d1 n1 n2 12 Change from Zero CO2 to 375 PPMV Radiation Components +12.7968 wm-2 -23.424 ΔR = .816 wm-2 10 10 ΔR = -1.47 wm-2 +17.751 -18.369 8 8 ΔR = -1.66 wm-2 +24.272 -12.560 6 6 ΔR = -0318 wm-2 +31.745 -6.908 4 4

ΔR = +8.79 wm-2 +37.429 -2.198 2 2 +33.347 ΔR = +22.51 wm-2 km 0 +.314 +13.345 km 0 Ground CO2 from Zero to 375 PPMV with Component Temps and Color

-27.569 wm-2 ΔR = F + F – F – F = F – F 12 d1 u1 u2 d1 n1 n2 12 Change from Zero CO2 to 375 PPMV Radiation Components +12.7968 wm-2 -23.424 ΔR = .816 wm-2 ΔT = (-.24 deg C) 10 10 ΔR = -1.47 wm-2 +17.751 -18.369 ΔT = (-.42 deg C) 8 8 -2 ΔR = -1.66 wm +24.272 -12.560 ΔT = (-.48 deg C) 6 6 -2 ΔR = -0318 wm +31.745 -6.908 ΔT = (-.01 deg C) 4 4 -2 ΔR = +8.79 wm +37.429 -2.198 ΔT = (+2.15 deg C) 2 2 +33.347 ΔR = +22.51 wm-2 ΔT = (+5.51 deg C) km 0 +.314 +13.345 km 0 Ground ΔT = 3.27 deg C Emissivity of Carbon Dioxide at static temperature Atmospheric CO2 trends since 1960 CO2 from 312 to 389 PPMV

1.10 ΔR = F + F – F – F = F – F 12 d1 u1 u2 d1 n1 n2 12

Change from 312.2 to 389 PPMV CO2 Radiation Component 10 10

8 8

6 6

4 4

2 2 Change at Surface is +.557 wm-2 0 km 0 +.557 km 0 Ground NCAR Water Vapor Trend 1989 – 2004 Change in Temperature, Carbon Dioxide and Water Vapor Change in Temperature, Carbon Dioxide and Water Vapor Water Vapor Optical Thickness ( Tau ) Equation The Expected Result of Temperature From CO2 Rising from 313 to 389 PPMV including Water Vapor

. Projected global mean radiation change from CO2 = 1.10 Wm-2 from MODTRAN Atmospheric Radiation Code. . Earth albedo (cloud reduction) is (1.10Wm-2) x .69 = .76Wm-2. . TIGR water vapor profiles show a DECREASE of .649 % from the mean global concentration of 2.6177 prcm 60 year record. From Miskolczi, Su[f] = OLR, where f = 2/ [1+tau+ exp(-tau)] = .35 Wm-2 x.69 = .24 Wm-2 . Final tabulation is .76Wm-2 minus .24Wm-2 = .52Wm-2. . .52Wm-2/5.42Wm-2K-1 = +.10 degC. Or 8.3% of the actual temperature rise that occurred from 1960-2011 in the most optimum condition!

UN computer simulations of climate are computer games USELESS in predicting the future

Professor of Mathematical and Theoretical Physics, Gerhard Gerlich: “To derive climate catastrophes from these computer games and to scare Mankind to death is a crime.”

“It cannot be overemphasized that even if the [fluid] equations are simplified considerably, one cannot determine numerical solutions, even for small space regions and even for small time intervals. This situation will not change in the next 1000 years regardless of progress made in computer hardware. As the extremely simplified one-fluid equations are unsolvable, the many-fluid equations would be more unsolvable, the equations that include the averaged equations describing the turbulence would be yet more unsolvable, if “unsolvable" had a comparative.”

“Hence, the computer simulations of global climatology are not based on physical laws.”

James Hansen’s Failed Climate Model Forecasts of 1988 GCM model error vs. global temperatures

x University of Washington Climate Impacts Group Climate Model forecast for the Pacific Northwest

IPCC Climate Model Temperature Forecasts From AR4 Chapter 8 and Page 12 of Summary Prediction versus reality: Missing hot spot greenhouse computer models fail Conclusions

1. There is nothing in the REAL atmospheric record that supports the recent temperature rise of the last century to carbon dioxide induced anthropogenic warming. 2. The tropospheric water vapor optical depth is remarkably stable but has declined recently over the last 70 years of record as carbon dioxide rose substantially in the atmosphere during the same period. This is a consistent outcome as expected by the first principle founding physics and inconsistent with atmospheric climate models. 3. Without water vapor acting as a positive feedback ( growth pattern ) to increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, the projected radiative forcing on the earth's surface is but a grossly exaggerated calculation of what the earth's temperature will actually do in response to carbon dioxide. 4. The earth's "greenhouse effect" is NOT controlled by atmospheric carbon dioxide. It is modulated and governed by atmospheric water vapor and clouds, where the warming modulation is controlled by the amount of vapor and optical depth. Clouds with the hydrological cycle act to trim out water vapor into a hydrostatic, convective equilibrium. The stable atmospheric optical depth likes the earth mean temperature of 59 deg F without further solar or planetary modulation. 5. The Anthropogenic warming hypothesis by atmospheric CO2 is falsified by the real record and radiation physics. Habibullo Abdussamatov Pulkovo Observatory of RAS

TSI has reached its record for the last (at least) 700 years Habibullo Abdussamatov Pulkovo Observatory of RAS

Conclusion From Changes in Solar Magnetic Energy Off of the Sun

. Based upon the near perfect correlation of R squared values between solar magnetic and temperature, the outlook for the earth for the next 50 years is a considerable global cooling that will likely have significant impacts on growing seasons and energy consumption. . That outlook is based upon the continued accurate projections given by solar physicists Landscheidt, Abdussamotov, Penn and Livingston. . CO2 radiation is insignificant to the larger picture. Portland Yearly Snowfall Totals 1980-2009 Official US Weather Service Record

In Inches Portland Yearly Snowfall Totals Before 1900 Official US Weather Bureau Portland Record

. Could this be the future of Portland with new solar cycle regime?

In Inches THE END

. STAY WARM !

UAH global satellite temperatures lower troposphere The infamous 'hockey stick' graph from Michael Mann Data (Mann-made global warming) Integrity Discredited by Wegman report to National Academy of Sciences Issue

These tree ring results were trumpeted in the media: “New studies indicate that temperatures in recent decades are higher than at any time in the past 1000 years……with the 1990’s as the warmest decade and 1998 as the warmest year” When challenged by McIntyre and McKitrick, the Wegman Report cited serious errors by Michael Mann. HOWEVER, UN IPCC desperately needs this graph and continues to use it Warm periods over the last 5,000 years Previous warm periods were WARMER than today Data When rural stations were dropped from temperature Integrity network the average global temperature appeared to soar Issue Data GISS Processing of Raw Temperature data Integrity turns cooling into warming! Issue Global Settled Science? Warming

Oregon Petition Project statement: “There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will... cause catastrophic heating of the earth’s atmosphere. Moreover, there is substantial evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth”.

Signed by 31,000 American Physical Scientists, 9,000 with PhDs

Tropospheric Relative Humidity Trends Middle and Upper Troposphere Temperature Trends The best and the brightest don't buy this HOAX

Massachusetts Institute of Technology Professor of Meteorology Richard Lindzen: “Future generations will wonder in bemused amazement that the early twenty-first century's developed world went into hysterical panic over a globally averaged temperature increase of a few tenths of a degree, and, on the basis of gross exaggerations of highly uncertain computer projections combined into implausible chains of inference, proceeded to contemplate a roll-back of the industrial age.”

Data Phil Mote's infamous “shrinking” NW snow pack Integrity A case of not showing you all the data Issue

Upper graph from Mote, Lower Graph is complete record Double CO2 from 375 to 750 PPMV No Temp Component

-3.58 wm-2 ΔR = Fd1 + Fu1 – Fu2 – Fd1 = Fn1 – Fn2 12 12 Change from 375 to 750 PPMV CO2 Radiation Components +1.81 -3.08 ΔR = (-.10 wm-2 ) 10 10 -2 ΔR = (-.13 wm ) +2.41 -2.45 8 8 ΔR = (-.24 wm-2 ) +3.17 -1.88 6 6 -2 ΔR = (+.458 wm ) +3.98 4 -.942 4 ΔR = (+.266 wm-2 ) +4.46

2 -.314 2 +3.83 ΔR = (+2.104 wm-2 )

km 0 0 +2.04 km 0 Ground ΔR = 2.04 Double CO2 from 375 to 750 PPMV With Temp Units

-3.58 ΔR = Fd1 + Fu1 – Fu2 – Fd1 = Fn1 – Fn2 12 12 Change from 375 to 750 PPMV CO2 Radiation Components +1.81 -3.08 ΔR = (-.10 wm-2 ) ΔT = (-.029 deg C) 10 10 -2 ΔR = (-.13 wm ) +2.41

-2.45 ΔT = (-.038 deg C) 8 8 ΔR = (-.24 wm-2 ) +3.17

-1.88 ΔT = (-.069 deg C) 6 6 -2 ΔR = (+.458 wm ) +3.98 ΔT = (+.132deg C) 4 -.942 4 ΔR = (+.266 wm-2 ) +4.46 ΔT = (+.065 deg C) 2 -.314 2 +3.83 ΔR = (+2.104 wm-2 ) ΔT = (+.515 deg C) km 0 0 +2.04 km 0 Ground ΔT = (+.50 deg C) Elsasser Radiation Nomogram Completed Elsasser Radiation Nomogram Elsasser Isothermal Emissivity Computation Global Real science REQUIRES real evidence Warming

In the realm of Politicized Science, Global Warming is a fact.

In the realm of Real Science where real evidence is required, Al Gore's theory has completely collapsed.

The difference is that stark.

Human Eye Sensitivity to Electromagnetic Radiation