UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical Cyclone HAROLD, | Population Exposure Analysis

UNOSAT

Tropical Cyclone HAROLD Population Exposure Analysis in Vanuatu 3 April 2020

Population Exposure Analysis 3 April 2020 Geneva, Switzerland

UNOSAT Contact: Postal Address: Email: [email protected] UNITAR – UNOSAT, IEH T: +41 22 767 4020 (UNOSAT Operations) Chemin des Anémones 11, 24/7 hotline: +41 75 411 4998 CH-1219, Genève, Suisse UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical Cyclone HAROLD, Vanuatu | Population Exposure Analysis

Overview

The tropical cyclone HAROLD-20 was originated on the 1 April 2020 centered between the Solomon Islands and the eastern coast of Papua New Guinea. The cyclone, categorized as category one, slowly moved on an east southeasterly direction at 34 km/h. toward Vanuatu. The tropical cyclone intensity was increasing significantly. The number of provinces predicted to bear the brunt of the cyclone includes Sanma, Malampa, Shefa, Penama, Torba and Tafea. The southern part of island and entire island of Vanuatu are expected to experience sustained wind speed > 120 km/h.

Based on data of the expected tropical cyclone path of wind speeds zones from Joint Research Centre (Issued on 3 April 2020 00:00 UTC), and population data from WorldPop 2020, UNITAR- UNOSAT conducted a population exposure analysis for Vanuatu. About 37%, of the population of Vanuatu living inside wind speed zone of 120 km/h, 13% living inside wind speed zone of 90 km/h and 36% living inside wind speed zone of 60 km/h. About 20%, 16% and 48% of buildings in Vanuatu are expected to experience more than 60, 90 and 120 km/h wind speed accordingly.

Population & Buildings Exposure in Vanuatu (TC20200403VUT)

271,400 Total population of Vanuatu (WorldPoP 2020)

97,668 36,032 101,209 Total population living within Total population living within Total population living within 60km/h wind speed zones 90km/h wind speed zones 120 km/h wind speed zones

The population exposure has been calculated using a 100m resolution WorldPoP dataset 105,600 Total buildings of Vanuatu (OpenStreetMap 2020)

20,419 16,890 51,169 Total buildings within Total buildings within Total buildings within 60km/h wind speed zones 90km/h wind speed zones 120km/h wind speed zones

and building footprints from OpenStreetMap. This is a preliminary analysis & has not yet been validated in the field. Vanuatu Population Exposed to Sustained Wind Speed Zones UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical Cyclone HAROLD, Vanuatu | Population Exposure Analysis

Tropical Cyclone HAROLD (03 April 2020, 00:00 UTC)

Total Total Province/Municipality Population Population Building footprints Buildings Wind Speed Zones Wind Speed Zones 60 90 60 90 km/h km/h 120 km/h km/h km/h 120 km/h

Vanuatu 97,668 36,032 101,209 234,910 20,419 16,890 51,169 88,478 Malampa 34,330 34,330 23,347 23,347 Central Malekula 5,140 5,140 4,829 4,829

North 3,247 3,247 1,712 1,712 North East Malekula 5,636 5,636 5,381 5,381 North West Malekula 4,195 4,195 3,859 3,859

Paama 1,540 1,540 300 300 South East Ambrym 1,885 1,885 1,135 1,135 South East Malekula 4,224 4,224 1,487 1,487

South Malekula 3,204 3,204 1,248 1,248 South West Malekula 2,901 2,901 2,204 2,204

West Ambrym 2,356 2,356 1,192 1,192 Penama 1,909 20,416 9,125 31,450 597 8,958 3,009 12,564

Central Pentecost 1 2,188 662 2,849 700 156 856

Central Pentecost 2 89 3,846 3,935 15 1,440 1,455 East Ambae 2,295 2,295 1,341 1,341 North Ambae 3,444 3,444 2,026 2,026 North 1,901 146 2,048 597 36 633 North Pentecost 5,629 5,629 1,630 1,630 South Ambae 1,539 1,539 580 580 South Maewo 8 1,350 1,358 205 205

South Pentecost 4,617 4,617 1,413 1,413 West Ambae 3,736 3,736 2,425 2,425 Sanma 146 8,266 46,346 54,758 63 5,303 20,704 26,070

Canal - Fanafo 6,019 6,019 2,022 2,022

East Malo 2,230 2,230 328 328

East Santo 3,929 223 4,152 1,988 44 2,032

Luganville 15,803 15,803 5,661 5,661 UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical Cyclone HAROLD, Vanuatu | Population Exposure Analysis

North Santo 2,644 2,269 4,913 1,987 1,390 3,377 North West Santo 146 1,445 1,590 63 1,029 1,092

South East Santo 88 4,700 4,788 10 2,032 2,042

South Santo 9,184 9,184 5,715 5,715

West Malo 2,638 2,638 1,510 1,510

West Santo 160 3,281 3,441 289 2,002 2,291 Shefa 89,717 7,349 11,409 108,476 17,399 2,629 4,109 24,137 Emau 568 568 297 297 7,692 7,692 2,126 2,126 5,398 5,398 2,322 2,322 Eton 2,597 455 3,052 1,104 65 1,169 546 546 401 401

Makimae 280 794 1,074 132 257 389 Malorua 1,567 619 2,186 790 304 1,094 Mele 5,048 4 5,052 1,228 1,228 1,764 1,764 841 841 North 3,660 3,660 990 990

North 2,189 2,189 377 377 Pango 2,956 2,956 1,051 1,051 Port Vila 63,914 63,914 8,377 8,377

South Epi 1,451 1,451 344 344

Tongariki 1,309 1,309 251 251

Varisu 2,024 2,024 898 898

Vermali 2,198 2,198 1,234 1,234

Vermaul 1,445 1,445 748 748 Tafea 2,286 2,286 1,578 1,578 Aniwa 225 225 128 128 Futuna 328 328 207 207 North 1,259 1,259 772 772 South Erromango 474 474 471 471 Torba 3,610 3,610 782 782 2,758 2,758 429 429 Merelava 704 704 237 237 Torres 88 88 60 60 116 116

Download full excel table from here: UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical Cyclone HAROLD, Vanuatu | Population Exposure Analysis

Sources: Cyclone track: Joint Research Centre (JRC) as of 3 April 2020 Wind speed zones: Joint Research Centre (JRC) as of 3 April 2020, 00:00 UTC Administrative Levels: OCHA ROP Spatial Demographic Data: WorldPoP (2020), 100 m spatial resolution Building footprints: OpenStreetMap Analysis: UNITAR-UNOSAT (3 April 2020)

UNITAR-UNOSAT | Tropical Cyclone HAROLD, Vanuatu | Population Exposure Analysis

Map1: Tropical cyclone HAROLD track with wind speed zones. Download PDF map here