The next space race Immigration’s poisonous politics Something’s coming: Bernstein at 100 Our Big Mac index JANUARY 20TH–26TH 2018 The new titans And how to tame them Contents The Economist January 20th 2018 5 8 The world this week 33 The Iran deal Trump card 34 Nuclear fears Leaders Thinking the unthinkable 11 Competition and tech 35 Lexington Taming the titans Stranger danger 12 Carillion’s collapse Britain’s hard bargains The Americas 13 Currency markets Playing ketchup with the 36 Argentina’s economy dollar Dismantling populism Carillion’s collapse Britain is 13 Democracy in Tunisia 37 Mexican radio the world’s leading privatiser The seven-year itch Burying the Hairy Hand of public services. It needs to 14 The new space race 38 Bello Violence in Venezuela get better at it: leader, page 12. On the cover In heaven as it is on Earth The mega-contractor’s demise Google, Facebook and Amazon reveals an outsourcing model are increasingly dominant. Letters Middle East and Africa in need of a revamp, page 48. How should they be tamed? Carillion could be the biggest 16 On nationalism, 39 Protests in Tunisia Leader, page 11. With the claim yet on Britain’s polygamy, sugar, Iceland, Democracy’s discontents political mood turning pensions-insurance scheme, conversation 40 Israel’s capital against digital giants, the Grants and absolution page 49 world’s largest tech bosses 40 The war in Syria are scrambling to understand Briefing Rebels on the slide what could be in store. A note 18 Coping with techlash 41 A plague in Africa from a strategist, page 18. Silicon Valley, we have a Hungry caterpillars Is the world’s largest online problem retailer underpaying its 42 Indebted South Africans employees? Page 32. Free to borrow Counting on too many Asia advertisements may be bad 23 Politics in Thailand Europe for your health: Schumpeter, Soldiers bribe voters 43 France’s En Marche! page 58 24 India’s Supreme Court What’s it for? Bench press 44 Germany’s coalition woes 25 Politics in Sri Lanka The dwarfs’ uprising Argentina Mauricio Macri’s The Economist online Coconuts and jolts 45 Human rights in Chechnya gamble on gradualism is Daily analysis and opinion to 25 Politics in Kyrgyzstan Pot shots working, so far, page 36 supplement the print edition, plus Kyrgyz autumn audio and video, and a daily chart 45 Polluted Poland 26 Japan and South Korea Economist.com Patriotic smog K-pop v history E-mail: newsletters and 45 The Czech Republic mobile edition Taking back the castle Economist.com/email China 46 Islam in Turkey Print edition: available online by 27 Space missions Checking up on the imams Hainan aims high 7pm London time each Thursday 47 Charlemagne Economist.com/print 28 Sexual harassment Money talks Audio edition: available online #ChinaToo to download each Friday 29 Banyan Britain Economist.com/audioedition Taiwan: tormented and torn 48 Carillion capsizes Cleaned out The new space race Events in United States 49 Pensions orbit reflect those back home: 30 The safety net A big hole leader, page 14. The biggest Working for it rocket in the world prepares 49 The Guardian for its maiden voyage, page 66. Volume 426 Number 9075 31 Coal Back in black China’s ambitions in space are Bob Murray Published since September 1843 50 Bagehot growing. America is keeping to take part in "a severe contest between 32 Amazon intelligence, which presses forward, and The special relationship its distance, page 27 an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing Unfulfilled our progress." 33 Kansas and Missouri Editorial offices in London and also: In a state Beijing, Berlin, Brussels, Cairo, Chicago, Madrid, Mexico City, Moscow, Mumbai, Nairobi, New Delhi, New York, Paris, San Francisco, São Paulo, Seoul, Shanghai, Singapore, Tokyo, Washington DC 1 Contents continues overleaf 6 Contents The Economist January 20th 2018 International Science and technology 51 Ending civil war 66 Space flight When the shooting stops Size matters 67 Perception and language Business Scents and sensibility 53 Computing geography (1) 68 Evolution Life on the edge Shell game 54 Computing geography (2) 68 Computers and justice Great cloud of China Algorithm’s dilemma 55 Japan’s SoftBank 69 Drones in a box World economy High oil Leonard Bernstein More than Funding a Vision Ready for take off prices are mostly a reflection 2,000 events around the world of a healthy global economy, 55 Television sports rights will celebrate the centenary of not a threat to it, page 59. What goes up... Books and arts America’s greatest 20th- Whether a currency is cheap or 56 General Electric 70 The Vietnam war century composer, page 73 dear is not always a good guide Regrets are not enough Wishful thinking to its fortunes. It is now: 57 Bamboo in China 71 History of art leader, page 13. A decline in Watching grass grow The first artists’ biographer Subscription service the dollar against a range of For our full range of subscription offers, 58 Schumpeter 71 New fiction including digital only or print and digital currencies is a small victory for Digital advertising A river runs through it combined visit burgernomics, page 62 Economist.com/offers 72 Johnson You can subscribe or renew your subscription Pronouns on the move by mail, telephone or fax at the details below: Finance and economics Telephone: +65 6534 5166 59 The oil price 73 Leonard Bernstein at 100 Facsimile: +65 6534 5066 A man in full Web: Economist.com/offers Crude thinking E-mail: [email protected] 60 Buttonwood Post: The Economist Subscription Centre, The hedge-fund delusion 76 Economic and financial Tanjong Pagar Post Office 61 Digital currencies indicators PO Box 671 The crypto sun sets Statistics on 42 economies, Singapore 910817 plus a closer look at new Subscription for 1 year (51 issues)Print only 62 The Big Mac index passenger-car registrations Australia A$465 The burger strikes back China CNY 2,300 Hong Kong & Macau HK$2,300 62 The World Bank India 10,000 Japan Yen 44,300 Undoing business Obituary Korea KRW 375,000 Congestion Driverless cars Malaysia RM 780 63 Government venture 78 Fred Bass will not save cities from either New Zealand NZ$530 capital in Europe Browsing at the Strand Singapore & Brunei S$425 the cost of traffic or Taiwan NT$9,000 The worm’s turn Thailand US$300 infrastructure: Free exchange, Other countries Contact us as above page 64 64 Free exchange Driverless cars and congestion Principal commercial offices: The Adelphi Building, 1-11John Adam Street, London WC2N 6HT Tel: +44 (0) 20 7830 7000 Rue de l’Athénée 32 1206 Geneva, Switzerland Tel: +4122 566 2470 750 3rd Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10017 Tel: +1212 5410500 1301Cityplaza Four, 12 Taikoo Wan Road, Taikoo Shing, Hong Kong Tel: +852 2585 3888 Other commercial offices: After civil war Countries Chicago, Dubai, Frankfurt, Los Angeles, emerging from conflict have to Paris, San Francisco and Singapore strike grubby deals if peace is to hold, page 51 PEFC certified This copy of The Economist is printed on paper sourced from sustainably managed forests, recycled and controlled sources certified by PEFC PEFC/01-31-162 www.pefc.org © 2018 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Published every week, except for a year-end double issue, by The Economist Newspaper Limited. The Economist is a registered trademark of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Publisher: The Economist. Printed by Times Printers (in Singapore). M.C.I. (P) No.057/09/2017 PPS 677/11/2012(022861) Evolved over billions of years... Protecting your enterprise in one hour. The immune system has evolved over billions of years. But it takes just one hour to install one in your enterprise. Using artifi cial intelligence, Darktrace can tell friend from foe, and catches threats that others miss. Even if they’ve never been seen before. From quiet insider threats and zero-day attacks, to hacks of connected devices or industrial networks, our software sees it and responds. Find out what’s lurking inside your systems. darktrace.com World-Leading Cyber AI 8 The world this week The Economist January 20th 2018 shots at the interior ministry in more refugees and do more more confusion, the govern- Politics and supreme court and called to help deal with those who ment’s immigration agency fora rebellion against the are in France. The British gov- said it would permit those authoritarian left-wing govern- ernment promised more mon- who are protected by DACA to ment ofNicolás Maduro. ey forsecurity along the Eng- renew their requests to stay During a nine-hour siege by lish Channel. following a court ruling, but police who had tracked him not accept new applicants. down, Mr Pérez said that he Oliver Ivanovic, a moderate was trying to surrender. Six of Kosovo Serb politician, was Negotiations over DACA were his companions and two murdered outside his party’s frustrated by Mr Trump report- policemen were also killed. offices in the ethnically divid- edly asking a meeting in the ed town ofMitrovica, as talks Oval Office why America had On a visit to Chile, Pope Fran- were set to resume between to take migrants from cis apologised forthe “irrepa- Serbia and Kosovo about “shithole” African countries rable harm” caused by clergy formalising their ties. He had and Haiti. In the ensuing furore who had sexually abused been convicted ofwar crimes Democrats declared him a Thousands ofTunisians took children, and met some ofthe in 2016 but was due to return to racist, but some Republicans to the streets to protest against victims.