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Economic Baseline Report August 2015

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Economic Baseline Report August 2015 Compelling Argyll and Bute Economic Baseline Report August 2015 EKOS Limited, St. George’s Studios, 93-97 St. George’s Road, Glasgow, G3 6JA Reg SC145099 Telephone: 0141 353 1994 Web: www.ekos-consultants.co.uk Direct enquiries regarding this report should be submitted to: John Kelly, Director, EKOS Email: [email protected] Tel: 0141 353 1994 As part of our green office policy all EKOS reports are printed double sided on 100% sustainable paper Contents 1. OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 BACKGROUND ........................................................................................................................ 1 1.3 REPORT FORMAT ................................................................................................................... 2 2. ECONOMIC PROFILE ........................................................................................................... 3 2.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 3 2.2 LABOUR MARKET ................................................................................................................. 15 2.3 BUSINESS BASE ................................................................................................................... 24 2.4 KEY SECTORS – EMPLOYMENT, ENTERPRISES, TURNOVER .............................................. 28 2.5 INCOME AND OUTPUT ........................................................................................................... 33 3. SKILLS PROFILE ................................................................................................................ 35 3.1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 35 3.2 WORKFORCE QUALIFICATIONS ............................................................................................ 35 3.3 OCCUPATIONAL PROFILES ................................................................................................... 36 3.4 SCHOOL LEAVER DESTINATIONS ......................................................................................... 38 3.5 SCHOOL ATTAINMENT .......................................................................................................... 39 3.6 POST SCHOOL EDUCATION .................................................................................................. 40 3.7 FURTHER EDUCATION IN ARGYLL AND BUTE ...................................................................... 43 4. REGIONAL ASSET AUDIT ................................................................................................. 44 4.1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 44 4.2 HOUSING PROFILE ............................................................................................................... 44 4.3 EDUCATION AND HEALTH ..................................................................................................... 50 4.4 BUSINESS PROPERTY .......................................................................................................... 57 4.5 TRANSPORT REVIEW ............................................................................................................ 63 4.6 TOURISM, LEISURE AND CULTURE ...................................................................................... 72 4.7 FDI PROFILE ........................................................................................................................ 79 4.8 RETAIL SECTOR ................................................................................................................... 80 4.9 UTILITIES REVIEW ................................................................................................................ 82 4.10 ENVIRONMENT ...................................................................................................................... 84 4.11 COMMUNITY SERVICES ........................................................................................................ 86 1. Overview 1.1 Introduction This socio-economic baseline research has been prepared for Argyll and Bute Council and its key partners and stakeholders as part of developing Argyll and Bute Council’s Economic Development Action Plan (EDAP). This economic baseline presents a desk based analysis of the area with a focus on the economy, skills base and physical assets within the region. 1.2 Background The Argyll and Bute Council’s Economic Development Action Plan (EDAP1) has set out the economic priorities for the region over the next few years and, in particular the key actions outlined in the Economic Development Action Plans for the four administrative sub-regions across Argyll and Bute, which are: Bute and Cowal (BC); Mid Argyll, Kintyre and the Islands (MAKI); Helensburgh and Lomond (HL); and Oban, Lorn and the Isles (OLI). The Action Plans are based around four key themes, and this socio-economic baseline focuses on Theme 4 - Compelling Argyll and Bute2, which seeks to increase the profile of the area to attract economically active new residents (individuals and families), inward investors and visitors. It is therefore focused on growing the (working age) population as a high level objective. 1 http://www.argyll-bute.gov.uk/business-and-trade/economic-development-action-plan 2 Competitive Argyll and Bute; Connected Argyll and Bute; Collaborative Argyll and Bute Compelling Argyll and Bute: Interim Report 1 The primary objectives of the overarching study are to: undertake a detailed economic profile and analysis of Argyll and Bute and each of the four sub-areas, with a particular focus on skills development issues; and develop ‘compelling’ propositions/promotional action plans for Argyll and Bute and each of its four sub-areas. The Action Plan objectives therefore seek to address the key issues and challenges of reversing the long term population decline as a major limiting factor in achieving economic growth. One of the key factors which emerges from the analysis is not just that Argyll and Bute is different from Scotland as a whole but that the sub regions in Argyll and Bute are themselves all different. We have sought where possible to tease out and highlight these differences. Finally, we also highlight the potential impact which the MOD Base at Faslane may have on the data and analysis, particularly in relation to the population and employment figures. At this stage we have been unable to get to speak to either the MOD or Babcock to obtain a better understanding and have therefore presented the data as available. 1.3 Report Format As highlighted earlier, the economic baseline report is based largely on an analysis of published information, web based data and previous baseline reports. It covers the following: Chapter 2: Economic profile; Chapter 3: Skills profile; and Chapter 4: Area asset audit. A more detailed sub regional analysis is provided in a separate report. Compelling Argyll and Bute: Interim Report 2 2. Economic Profile 2.1 Introduction This Chapter sets out an analysis of the economic and skills profile of the Argyll and Bute region and where possible, provides an analysis at the local level where the data is available / or reported. It also provides some high level conclusions and identifies some strategic indicators to inform potential responses. The economic profile includes a review and profile of the following indicators: population and demographics; labour markets; business base; key sectors; and income and economic output. 2.2 Population and Demographics In 2013, the total population of Argyll and Bute was 88,0503, comprising 40,130 households, and the largest settlement is Helensburgh, with a population of 15,590. Table 2.1 presents the most recent population data available for Argyll and Bute and Scotland (2013) and the sub–regional level (Scottish Census 2011) broken down by demographic group. It is important to consider the demographic breakdown of the population as it has a significant impact on a number of factors, including, provision of services e.g. health and education, availability of labour, and demand for housing – all considered within this baseline. 3 Mid-year estimates from the National records of Scotland. Compelling Argyll and Bute: Interim Report 3 Table 2.1: Population Breakdown 2013 Children (0- Working age Pensionable 15) (16-64) age (64+) Total 3,059 12,046 5,955 Bute and Cowal (14.5%) (57.2%) (28.3%) 21,060 Helensburgh and 4,291 16,559 5,320 Lomond (16.4%) (63.3%) (20.3%) 26,170 Mid Argyll, Kintyre 3,165 12,349 5,072 and the Islands (15.4%) (60.0%) (24.6%) 20,586 Oban, Lorn and the 3,313 12,648 4,273 Isles (16.4%) (62.5%) (21.1%) 20,234 13,828 53,602 20,620 Argyll and Bute (15.7%) (60.9%) (23.4%) 88,050 911,679 3,469,159 946,862 Scotland (17.1%) (65.1%) (17.8%) 5,327,700 Source: Scottish Census 2011 There are a number of important points to note when comparing the demographic breakdown. Firstly, the proportion of working age population is higher in Scotland than in Argyll and Bute, 65% compared to 61% which indicates that there is therefore likely to be a smaller labour pool within Argyll and Bute (assuming parity of employment
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