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General Election 2017: Alex Bate Richard Cracknell Noel Dempsey Results and Analysis Oliver Hawkins Second Edition Rod Mcinnes Tom Rutherford Elise Uberoi

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General Election 2017: Alex Bate Richard Cracknell Noel Dempsey Results and Analysis Oliver Hawkins Second Edition Rod Mcinnes Tom Rutherford Elise Uberoi BRIEFING PAPER th Number CBP 7979, updated 29 January 2019 By Vyara Apostolova Lukas Audickas Carl Baker General Election 2017: Alex Bate Richard Cracknell Noel Dempsey results and analysis Oliver Hawkins Second Edition Rod McInnes Tom Rutherford Elise Uberoi Contents: 1. Summary and introduction 2. Election Results 3. Analysis of the election and its results 4. Reference: constituency level results www.parliament.uk/commons-library | intranet.parliament.uk/commons-library | [email protected] | @commonslibrary 2 General Election 2017: results and analysis Contents 1. Summary and introduction 3 1.1 Constituency Winners Maps 4 1.2 Introduction 6 2. Election Results 8 2.1 Full votes and seats by party 8 2.2 In-depth results for major parties 10 2.3 In-depth results by country & region 26 3. Analysis of the election and its results 38 3.1 Gains and losses: seats changing hands in 2017 38 3.2 Who voted for which party? Social characteristics of voters 42 3.3 Candidates: who stood for election? 46 3.4 Characteristics of MPs: gender, ethnicity, and more 51 3.5 Electorate and Turnout 54 3.6 Second places 60 3.7 Lost deposits 62 3.8 Minor parties & independents 64 3.9 Safe and Marginal Seats 67 3.10 Invalid votes 70 3.11 Declaration times 70 3.12 Opinion polls 74 3.13 Donations to party campaigns 75 3.14 By-elections since the 2015 election 75 3.15 Weather on election day 78 3.16 EVEL and the 2017 election 80 4. Reference: constituency level results 83 4.1 List of winning candidates and constituency marginality 83 4.2 Constituency vote shares 94 Data collection team This publication relied on the work of a data collection team led by Oliver Hawkins and Richard Keen. We thank the following people for their work. Simon Armitage Rosie Barber Jonathan Bayliss Sue Beeby Richard Eaton Caitriona Fleming Chloe Freeman Sasha Gorb Shabana Gulma Lucy Hale James Hockaday George James Shipra Kar Helen Lowe Andrew Mackley Tamsin Maddock Tom Martin Kathy Moss Rob Page Olivia Salmon Ruthanne Straughan Andrew Wales Matthew Ward Owain Wilkins Cover image: Camden Chinese Community Centre Polling Station, Richard Cracknell, 8 June 2017 General Election 2017: Summary No party obtained a majority of seats, resulting 70 seats changed hands. The Conservatives lost in a hung parliament. 13 seats and Labour gained 30. Conservative 317 seats Conservative -13 (net) Labour 262 Labour +30 SNP 35 SNP -21 Lib Dem 12 Lib Dem +4 DUP 10 DUP +2 Sinn Féin 7 Sinn Féin +3 Plaid Cymru 4 Plaid Cymru +1 Green 1 Green No change Other 2 Other -6 The two-party Conservative & Labour vote The Conservatives won 49% of seats - down share was at its highest level since 1970 from 51% in 2015 89% 81% 82% 258 232 262 402 348 seats 306 330 317 165 210 1945 1970 1997 2017 2001 2005 2010 2015 2017 Turnout was just under 69%, up from 66% in The nine largest overturned majorities were in 2015 and the highest since 1997 Scotland and all SNP losses Constituency '15 '17 '15 majority Banff & Buchan 14,339 75% 78% 71% 69% Coatbridge 11,501 65% 66% 59% 61% Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock 11,265 Angus 11,230 Stirling 10,480 Ochil & South Perthshire 10,168 Rutherglen & Hamilton W 9,975 Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath 9,974 1987 1992 1997 2001 2005 2010 2015 2017 Midlothian 9,859 Canterbury 9,798 208 women were elected as MPs - the highest 11 seats had a margin of victory of less than number ever 100 votes Constituency '15 '17 '17 majority North East Fife 2 208 Kensington 20 191 Perth & North Perthshire 21 143 Dudley North 22 128 120 118 Newcastle-under-Lyme 30 Southampton Itchen 31 Richmond Park 45 60 41 Crewe & Nantwich 48 Glasgow South West 60 1987 1992 1997 2001 2005 2010 2015 2017 Glasgow East 75 6 General Election 2017: results and analysis 1.2 Introduction The 2017 UK Parliamentary General Election was held on Thursday 8th June. The election was called early, under Section 2(1) of the Fixed-term General Elections in Parliaments Act 2011, after the Prime Minister announced her intention the UK are held th on April 18 for an election to be held. Voting was held in all 650 using a “First past constituencies across the UK: 533 in England, 59 in Scotland, 40 in the post” voting Wales and 18 in Northern Ireland. There were no changes to system, with the constituency boundaries, meaning that the constituencies were identical candidate receiving to those in the 2015 General Election.1 the greatest number of votes in The election resulted in a hung Parliament, with no single party winning each constituency an overall majority.2 The Conservative Party, led by Prime Minister winning that seat. Theresa May, won the largest number of seats and votes, taking 317 There is no seats and 42.3% of the vote across the UK.3 The Labour Party, led by requirement for a Jeremy Corbyn, won 262 seats, and 40.0% of the vote, up from 232 majority of votes to seats and 30.4% of the vote in 2015. The Conservatives’ share of the be won. vote is the highest for any single party since the 43.2% won by Labour in 1997, and their total of 13.6 million votes is the second highest total in UK electoral history. The Scottish National Party (SNP) retained its position as the third-largest party in the Commons, winning 35 of 59 Scottish seats and taking 36.9% of the Scottish vote, down from 56 seats and 50.0% of the vote in Scotland in 2015. Plaid Cymru won 4 of the 40 seats in Wales and 10.4% of the Welsh vote, compared with 3 seats and 12.1% of the vote in 2015. The Liberal Democrats won 12 seats (up from 8) and 7.4% of the UK vote (down from 7.9%). The UK Independence Party (UKIP) lost the only seat it had won in 2015, and saw its share of the vote fall from 12.6% to 1.8%. UKIP fielded candidates in 317 seats in 2017, down from 624 candidates in 2015. The Green Party retained its single seat (Brighton Pavilion), but saw its UK-wide vote share fall from 3.8% in 2015 to 1.6% in 2017. In Northern Ireland, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) won 10 seats, gaining two; Sinn Féin won seven,4 gaining three; and one Independent (Lady Sylvia Hermon) retained her seat. The Ulster Unionist Party and Social Democratic & Labour Party both lost all their seats, and there are now no Irish Nationalist will sit in the House of Commons for the first time since the 1960s. Section 2 of this paper gives a more detailed breakdown of the results by party. 1 Unless otherwise stated, all comparisons to the previous election are to the 2015 General Election, ignoring subsequent by-elections in individual constituencies. 2 326 seats would be required for a theoretical majority, although in practice this number may vary. 3 The figures for the Conservatives exclude the Speaker. The Speaker is counted as a Conservative by some media sources, based on his previous party affiliation. 4 In line with their policy of abstentionism, Sinn Féin are not expected to take their seats. Commons Library Briefing, 11 July 2017 7 Turnout Turnout was 68.7%, up from 66.3% in 2015, and the highest turnout since 1997. 5 The total registered electorate was 46.8 million, up from 46.4 million in 2015. Section 3.5 of this paper examines turnout, while section 3.2 looks at turnout in different demographic groups. Characteristics of those elected 208 women (32% of the total) were elected – the greatest number ever. According to the British Future think-tank a total of 12 MPs from a black and minority ethnic background were newly-elected, taking the total to 52 (8% of all MPs).6 The oldest elected MP was Dennis Skinner (Lab, Bolsover), aged 85. The youngest, at age 22, was Mhairi Black (SNP, Paisley and Renfrewshire South). The MP with the longest continuous service (the Father of the House) is Kenneth Clarke (Con, Rushcliffe), who has 47 consecutive years of service since 1970. With the defeat of David Winnick (Lab, Walsall North), there are no remaining MPs who served in Parliament during the 1960s. Section 3.4 examines the characteristics of MPs in more detail. Notable gains and losses Several high-profile former MPs lost their seats, including former Liberal Democrat leader and Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg (Sheffield Hallam), the SNP’s Westminster leader Angus Robertson (Moray) and former SNP leader and Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond (Gordon). Nine serving Government Ministers lost their seats, including Jane Ellison (Battersea), Gavin Barwell (Croydon Central) and Ben Gummer (Ipswich). 551 MPs retained their seats in the election, and 87 new members were elected. A further 12 former MPs returned to the House after not serving immediately prior to the election. These include former Secretary of State Sir Vince Cable (LD, Twickenham), and previous Ministers Esther McVey (Con, Tatton), Jo Swinson (LD, East Dunbartonshire), and Sir Ed Davey (Kingston & Surbiton). Full election result data files are available to download from the Commons Library 2017 General Election page. 5 Turnout is defined as the proportion of the registered electorate who cast a valid vote. Spoiled, or otherwise invalid votes are excluded from turnout calculations. 6 British Future, 52 minority MPs to sit in ‘most diverse UK Parliament ever’, retrieved 12 June 2017.
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