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India's Energy Atlantic Council GLOBAL ENERGY CENTER INDIA’S ENERGY AND THE ARAB/ NEEDS PERSIAN GULF Jean-François Seznec Ramesh Pallakonda INDIA’S ENERGY AND THE ARAB/ NEEDS PERSIAN GULF Jean-François Seznec Ramesh Pallakonda ISBN: 978-1-61977-443-8 Cover photo: Reuters/Rupak De Chowdhuri. A worker walks atop a tanker wagon to check the freight level at an oil terminal on the outskirts of Kolkata, India in this November 27, 2013 file photo. This report is written and published in accordance with the Atlantic Council Policy on Intellectual Independence. The author is solely responsible for its analysis and recommendations. The Atlantic Council and its donors do not determine, nor do they necessarily endorse or advocate for, any of this report’s conclusions. January 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................2 Indian Oil Consumption’s Place in the World ....................................................................4 Crude Oil ........................................................................................................................................5 Natural Gas ....................................................................................................................................6 Structure of the Industry in India ...........................................................................................8 Exploration and Production .....................................................................................................9 Indian Economy and Key Energy Trends ............................................................................11 Oil and Gas Production by Gulf Countries ..........................................................................14 India-Iran Relations ......................................................................................................................17 Political Objectives for a Closer Gulf Relationship and Its Implications ..................18 Volume of Trade ...........................................................................................................................20 Areas for Cooperation ................................................................................................................20 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................22 About the Authors .......................................................................................................................24 INDIA’S ENERGY NEEDS AND THE ARAB/PERSIAN GULF EXECUTIVE SUMMARY India’s economy is increasing at the fastest rate in the on Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq as it major suppliers, world, now making it the globe’s third largest user while Qatar provides most of its natural gas needs. of crude oil. While India is benefitting from the low Hence, geography, as well as the presence of over 7 oil prices seen since mid-2014, it has precious few oil million Indian nationals in the Gulf, makes the relations and gas resources of its own and will remain highly between the Gulf and India increasingly important. dependent on imports. On the other hand India is now a large exporter of products like gasoline and diesel The paper examines in some detail the present crude fuels because it has built a very large refining capacity, oil and natural gas situation in India and the role which ultimately renders India’s need for crude oil played by the Gulf producers, especially Iran and Saudi more pressing. Arabia. India has tried to diversify its sources of crude oil, but due to its proximity to the Gulf, it still relies a great deal ATLANTIC COUNCIL 1 INDIA’S ENERGY NEEDS AND THE ARAB/PERSIAN GULF problems, and the perceived treatment of Muslims in INTRODUCTION India, among other issues. Today, this is changing. India India is rapidly becoming one of the largest importers is presently seen by the GCC as a significant political of hydrocarbons in the world. It constitutes 17 percent player in the Indian Ocean region, an important source of world’s population with over 1.3 billion people. It of labor for the Gulf, and a large and growing market 5 is the seventh largest country in the world in total for natural gas, crude oil, and downstream production. land area and is the globe’s fourth largest consumer Approximately seven million Indian expatriates live of energy after China, the United States, and Russia. across the six GCC member states, the largest of all Per capita usage has been growing by 5 percent every the expatriate communities in the Gulf by far. India year.1 In the 2015-16 fiscal year, India’s consumption of receives over $23 billion per year in remittances from petroleum products rose by 10 percent to 183 million its diaspora in the Gulf. Furthermore, India buys over tons2 or 3.9 million barrels per day (b/d).3 This trend 1 million b/d of crude oil as well as fertilizers and is expected to continue in the coming years. With an chemicals from GCC countries. economy projected to grow by roughly 7-8 percent India’s relationship with the Arab countries of the Gulf every year, India has already overtaken Japan to is also influenced by current geopolitical changes. become the world’s third largest oil consumer behind The GCC perceives, rightly or wrongly, that the United the United States and China. As of 2015, petroleum States’ interest in the Gulf is declining as it repositions products constitute 25 percent of India’s total imports towards the Far East. Therefore, the GCC countries are and 12 percent of its exports. This adds up to 20 seeking to develop deeper relations with the powers of percent of the total trade value between India and Asia, starting with the region’s two largest actors: China 4 other countries. and India. Historically, relations between the United In a country where four hundred million people are States and the GCC have proven extremely strong still without electricity, many are switching from using across administrations, especially on the military side. wood, charcoal, and coal for heating and cooking However, moving forward, the GCC leadership may be to using kerosene and gasoline until renewables realizing that its links with the West, and the United become more available. Increasing urbanization will States in particular, are weakening. Increasingly, the also contribute to a large increase in demand for US public is losing faith and interest in the importance transportation. At the same time, efforts are being of the Gulf to its economic and strategic needs. made to reduce dependence on coal by using natural Over time, the GCC countries will have to find other gas to help reduce air pollution. On the other hand, partners to counter what it deems to be the expansive should electricity supply become more reliable, many policies of neighboring Iran. Developing relations with industries and commercial establishments, which must the largest Asian powers is of primary importance. use their own generators powered by oil products Naturally, neither India nor China has the wherewithal for day-to-day use, would cut their purchases of to offer strategic links to the Gulf countries to fully these products. India has only very small reserves of replace the United States in the immediate future, but hydrocarbons. Hence, demand for crude oil, products both can start by significantly growing their economic derived from crude oil, and natural gas will continue to links, which ultimately will translate into political and increase substantially for the foreseeable future. strategic links as trust grows across the Indian Ocean. Of course, the country is located very close to the Saudi Arabia in particular is pushing to improve its huge oil and gas reserves of the Persian Gulf, which relations with India. King Salman, just before ascending gives increasing importance to Gulf-India relations. to the throne in 2015, visited New Delhi; India’s prime Until recently, relations with the Arab countries of minister, Narendra Modi, visited the Kingdom in 2016. the Gulf were hampered by the Gulf Cooperation There has also been significant traffic in lower-level Council (GCC) countries’ links to Pakistan, the Kashmiri visits by Saudi ministers to India and vice versa; this frequent contact is important in light of Saudi Arabia’s three million Indian nationals, whose interests 1 Central Electricity Authority, Growth of Electricity Sector in and problems still must be addressed in depth by India from 1947-2015 (New Delhi: Government of India, April 2015). both countries. In addition, India is now one of the 2 “Snapshot of India’s Oil & Gas Data: August 2016,” Petroleum largest buyers of oil from the Kingdom, as well as a Planning and Analysis Cell, Indian Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. 3 In this paper, the authors translated metric tons of crude oil 5 Downstream refers to all the transformations of the carbon into barrels/day at the rate of 7.8 tons per barrel for 365 days. molecules obtained from the extraction of crude oil and natural 4 Directorate General of Foreign Trade, Ministry of Commerce gas. It also covers the actual manufacturing of products made and Industry, Dgft.gov.in. from the refined products. 2 ATLANTIC COUNCIL INDIA’S ENERGY NEEDS AND THE ARAB/PERSIAN GULF The India prime minister, Shri Narendra Modi
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