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Hydrologic Modeling National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, INDIA HYDROLOGIC3 MODELING Current Status and Future Directions Prepared for Centre of Excellence for Hydrologic Modeling National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, INDIA Under the aegis of NATIONAL HYDROLOGY PROJECT Volume 1.0; January, 2018 Forward The report titled “Hydrological Modeling – Current Status and Future Directions”, has been prepared as a guiding document for the activity of the ‘Centre of Excellence for Hydrologic Modelling’ under National Hydrology Project (NHP). The report has brought out a comprehensive review of surface water, ground water, water quality and systems models developed and successfully adopted for solving water management problems world over. Some of those models are generic, process based, less data driven and have proven effective and capable to simulate conditions prevalent in India. It is, therefore, desirable that the potential of adopting some of the models which have open access, be examined in detail. Some models are open source while others are not available free. Some of the open source models are very robust and have been tested widely. The report covers the basics about various modeling components, issues related to modeling and different models used to deal with Surface water modeling, Groundwater modeling, Water Quality modeling, snowmelt-runoff modeling, soil erosion and sediment transport modeling and water resources systems modeling. All these domain modeling descriptions have been presented through 6 chapters; Chapter 1 presents hydrological modeling concepts in detail and reviews surface water modeling tools used in rainfall-runoff modeling, flood modeling and urban water hydrology; Chapter 2 provides basic theory used in ground water models development and tools and techniques along with description of groundwater modeling software. Snow/glacier melt runoff models are discussed in Chapter 3, while Chapter 4 is about soil erosion and sediment transport modelling. Basic concepts used in water quality modeling and different water quality modeling approaches are presented in Chapter 5. Finally, in Chapter 6, simulation and optimization techniques used in water resources systems and models based on these techniques are discussed. Each chapter concludes with a summary and way forward of modeling tools for wide application in India. It is hoped that the report would be useful for the water resources professionals and would also provide guiding material for the future activities of the “Centre of Excellence for Hydrologic Modeling” that has been setup under NHP at NIH. A large team of NIH scientists have put in considerable efforts to bring out this review report. I compliment all those who were involved in preparation of the report. Many experts reviewed the report and their help is gratefully acknowledged. We plan to periodically revise and improve the report to keep it updated and freely disseminate it through NIH/NHP web channels. (Sharad K Jain) Director, NIH January 29, 2018 ABSTRACT Hydrological modeling is an indispensable tool for obtaining a better understanding of hydrological processes, their interactions, and prediction. Hydrologic models are simplified, conceptual representations of real-world system, commonly through mathematical equations, developed with the aim to understand hydrological processes, predict their future behavior, and to manage water resources, both in terms of quantity and quality of water. Hydrologic models help faster and logical decision making. A large number of hydrologic models ranging from simple to highly complex have been developed world over and are available for solving wide ranges of domain problems. Each model has its own merits, limitations, data requirement and complexities in use. Water professionals are interested in estimation of response of water systems to hydro-meteorological inputs and intervention to plan, construct, and operate water resources development projects. Some models are comprehensive and derived based on the physics of underlying hydrological processes. Keeping in view the hydro-climatic regions, topographic variability in India, and data availability, a group of models need to be identified for wider use. Selection of an appropriate model for an application requires consideration of the suitability of the model to the catchment conditions, data requirements and availability, model assumptions, complexity, and its accuracy and validity. Therefore, a model user must fully understand these aspects before using a model. If necessary and possible, suitable modification may be incorporated in a model to make them more useful for Indian river basins. Reliable data at a range of spatial and temporal scales are critical to calibrate and validate the hydrological models. An important area of surface water modeling is contribution of snow and glacier melt in snowfed catchments. In mid and high latitude mountain ranges, for example, seasonal snow cover exerts a strong influence on runoff variability whereas glaciers are the dominant source of water during the dry season at low latitudes. Improved understanding of snow and glacier melt runoff studies will help better management of water resources in rivers fed by these two. Groundwater, one of the India’s most important natural resource, is under constant threat of exploitation with increasing population and economic development. Proper understanding and modeling of subsurface water movement has been an enduring challenge for hydrologists and practitioners. Current modeling efforts are plagued by the complex heterogeneity within the subsurface, reconciliation with spatial and temporal scales, and lack of supporting data. Water quality management including soil erosion and transport is a critical component of overall integrated water resources management. Water quality modelling can give answers to a large number of management questions related to prospective social, economic, environmental, technical and political issues of future scenarios based on past and present conditions. Decisive use of water quality modelling as a tool for policy evaluation & decision, water quality management, risk assessment, and water quality conservation is yet to pick up momentum in India. Data challenges continue to plague modeling efforts, particularly in India. Complex models have too many parameters that need to be estimated accurately and independently for the models to be used at their full and correct potential. Most efforts rely on calibration and corroboration exercises that are fraught with uncertainty. Field-scale experiments are time-consuming and costly. State-of-art data acquisition techniques need to be applied for reliable modeling and impact studies. There is a need to devise low-cost and rapid ways to accurately determine hydrogeologic parameters. Geographical information systems (GISs) are increasingly being included in planning and management models. Most of the current models have been linked with GIS database. Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on surface and ground water regime is yet another long-term challenge that confounds both researchers and managers. Developing new models that account for uncertainties and provide more realistic assessment of predictive capabilities is needed for devising effective management practices. Uncertainties in modeling and in defining climate change scenarios make it difficult to assess the state of future groundwater resources. Methods for quantifying and reducing these uncertainties need to be derived using advanced mathematical techniques, and modeling strategies. This document reviews the hydrologic and water resources modeling and management challenges in India covering surface and sub-surface water, snow and glacier melt water, water resources systems, water quality aspects, and sediment transport, and also reviews the most promising models developed to solve wide ranges of problems covering all those hydrological domains. A critical appraisal of the most widely used domain models including their characteristics has been elaborated in this document to help readers choose which models have what capability, limitations, data requirements and complexities. ***** AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS CHAPTER-1 SURFACE WATER MODELLING RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELLING, FLOOD MODELLING AND URBAN HYDROLOGY Anil K. Lohani, Ravindra V. Kale, Purna C. Nayak, Sharad K. Jain and Rakesh K. Jaiswal CHAPTER-2 SUBSURFACE WATER MODELING – FLOW AND CONTAMINANT TRANSPORT Narayan C. Ghosh, Chandra P. Kumar, Anupma Sharma, Surjeet Singh and Mathew K. Jose CHAPTER-3 SNOW/GLACIER MELT RUNOFF MODELLING Sanjay K Jain, Renoj J. Thayyen and Manohar Arora CHAPTER-4 SOIL EROSION AND SEDIMENT TRANSPORT MODELLING Jaivir Tyagi, Pushpendra K. Singh and Archana Sarkar CHAPTER-5 SURFACE WATER QUALITY MODELLING Narayan C. Ghosh, Pushpendra K. Singh, Sumant Kumar, Bekal K. Purandara and Mukesh K. Sharma CHAPTER-6 WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS MODELING – STATUS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS Sharad K. Jain, Manmohan K. Goel, Deepti Rani and Arun Mondal Project Staff: Deepti Rani, Surendra K. Chandniha, Asha Rani and Neha Jain Reviewers The following experts have reviewed and provided their expert opinion: Prof. A.K Gosain, IIT Delhi Prof. N. K. Goel, IIT Roorkee Prof. K. P. Sudheer, IIT Madras Dr. Anil Kulkarni, IISc., Bengaluru Prof. P. P. Mujumdar, IISc. Bengaluru Prof. P. K. Mohapatra, IIT Gandhinagar Prof. B. S. Murthy, IITMadras Prof. Deepak Kashyap, IIT Roorkee Prof. M. Sekhar, IISc., Bengaluru Dr. Subhankar Karmakar, IIT Bombay Dr. Ramakar Jha, NIT, Patna CONTENTS Title Page No. CHAPTER-1
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