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Groundwater - Surface Water Interaction Under the Effects of Climate and Land Use Changes

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Groundwater - Surface Water Interaction Under the Effects of Climate and Land Use Changes GROUNDWATER - SURFACE WATER INTERACTION UNDER THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE AND LAND USE CHANGES by Gopal Chandra Saha B.Sc., Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology, Bangladesh, 2003 M.Sc., Stuttgart University, Germany, 2006 M.Sc., Auburn University, USA, 2009 DISSERTATION SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA September 2014 © Gopal Chandra Saha, 2014 UMI Number: 3663187 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Di!ss0?t&Ciori Piiblist’Mlg UMI 3663187 Published by ProQuest LLC 2015. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 ABSTRACT Historical observed data and future climate projections provide enough evidence that water resources systems (i.e., surface water and groundwater) are extremely vulnerable to climate change. However, the impact of climate change on water resources systems varies from region to region. Therefore, climate change impact studies of water resources systems are of interest at regional to local scales. These studies provide a better understanding of the sensitivity of water resources systems to changes in climatic variables (i.e., precipitation and temperature), and help to manage future water resources. In addition to climate change, human-induced land use changes also significantly affect water resources systems. Therefore, climate and land use changes can provide offsetting and additive impacts on water resources systems depending on the region and watershed characteristics. In this dissertation research, groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interaction under the effects of climate and land use changes were investigated through the development of a Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) modeling system using a case study in Kiskatinaw River watershed (KRW), British Columbia, Canada. Based on the simulation results, it was found that the mean annual groundwater contribution to stream flow in the study area during the short-term period (2012-2016) under the A2 and B1 climate change scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is expected to decrease by 3.3% and 1.8%, respectively, with respect to that during the reference period (2007-2011). This was due to increased precipitation (on average 6.1% under the A2 and 3.6% under the B1 scenarios) and temperature (on average 0.64°C under the A2 and 0.36°C under the B1 scenarios). The climate change would result in increased stream flow (on average 6.7% and 3% under the A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively) and groundwater discharge (on average 2.8% and 1.2% under the A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively), but the major increase occurred in surface runoff (on average 22.5% and 11.2% under the A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively). Under the effect of climate change, the mean groundwater contribution to stream flow illustrated monthly, seasonal, and annual variation due to precipitation variability. The mean seasonal groundwater contribution to stream flow under both climate change scenarios is the lowest and highest during summer and winter, respectively. Similar results were found for the long-term period (2020-2040). When land use/land cover (LULC) changes (i.e., increasing forest clear cut area, and decreasing forest and agricultural areas) were combined with climate change scenarios, similar results of climate change effects were found, but with a decreasing rate except in stream flow and surface runoff. Compared to the reference period (2007-2011), the mean annual groundwater contribution to stream flow from 2012 to 2016 under the combined effect of A2 or B1 climate change scenario and LULC changes is expected to decrease by 6.4% and 4.3%, respectively. Under the combined LULC changes with A2 and B1 scenarios, on average stream flow increased by 10.1% and 5.8%, groundwater discharge increased by 2.1% and 0.7%, and surface runoff increased by 42% and 29%, respectively. The results indicate that the flow patterns were shifted to the regime with more surface runoff and stream flow but less groundwater discharge, which implies that land use change has an important role in GW-SW interaction within a watershed. In addition, uncertainty analysis of GW-SW interaction in the study area was conducted using a Monte Carlo method, and the cumulative frequency distributions of groundwater contributions to stream flow under the A2 and B1 climate change scenarios were obtained. These results also illustrated different monthly, seasonal, and annual variation patterns. The key contribution of this dissertation research was the inclusion of climate and LULC changes scenarios in the developed numerical model to assess GW-SW interaction. The modeling results will help better understand the dynamics of GW-SW interaction due to climate change or combined climate and LULC changes. The results will also provide useful information for effective short-term and long-term water resources decision making in the study area in terms of seasonal and annual water extractions from the river and water allocation to the stakeholders for future water supply, as well as for evaluating the ecological conditions of the stream. The developed numerical model would serve as a useful tool for dealing with GW-SW management problems in the context of climate and land use changes. TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT.....................................................................................................................................i TABLE OF CONTENTS............................................................................................................iv LIST OF FIGURES.....................................................................................................................ix LIST OF TABLES.....................................................................................................................xix ACKNOWLEDGEMENT.......................................................................................................xxii CHAPTER 1...................................................................................................................................1 INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................1 1.1 Background .................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Objectives ....................................................................................................................4 1.3 Organization of dissertation ........................................................................................5 CHAPTER 2 ...................................................................................................................................6 LITERATURE REVIEW..................................................................................................6 2.1 Background ..................................................................................................................6 2.2 Methods used for investigating groundwater-surface water interaction ................8 2.2.1 Field measurement methods ............................................................................... 9 2.2.1.1 Using conventional wells and piezometers .................................................9 2.2.1.2 Using seepage meters ..................................................................................12 2.2.1.3 Using tracer methods ...................................................................................14 2.2.2 Hydrograph separation .......................................................................................17 2.2.2.1 Simple graphical approach......................................................................... 17 2.2.2.2 Filtering methods.........................................................................................20 2.2.2.3 Stream flow partitioning method ............................................................... 23 2.2.2.4 Recursive filtering method .........................................................................24 2.2.2.5 Unit Hydrograph method ...........................................................................24 2.2.2.6 Rating curve method .................................................................................. 25 2.2.2.7 Using environmental tracers .......................................................................26 2.2.3 Review of numerical solutions ........................................................................28 2.3 Summary..................................................................................................................42 CHAPTER 3 ................................................................................................................................ 44 METHODOLOGY........................................................................................................... 44 3. 1 Overview of study area ............................................................................................44
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