A Plan for Y B Action T
R A New Era of International PO E Cooperation for a Changed World: A R 2009, 2010, and Beyond
Managing Global Insecurity U.S. Advisory Group Members
Madeleine Albright Sylvia Mathews Burwell John Podesta Principal, The Albright Group LLC; President, Global Development President and CEO, Center for Former U.S. Secretary of State Program, The Bill and Melinda Gates American Progress; Former White Foundation; Former Deputy Director House Chief of Staff Richard Armitage of the U.S. Office of Management President, Armitage International; Brent Scowcroft and Budget Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State President, The Scowcroft Group; Chester A. Crocker Former U.S. National Security Advisor Samuel Berger Professor of Strategic Studies, Chairman, Stonebridge International; Abraham Sofaer Georgetown University; Former Former U.S. National Security Advisor George P. Shultz Distinguished U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, Scholar and Senior Fellow at the Howard Berman African Affairs Hoover Institution; Former Legal Representative from California, Lawrence Eagleburger Advisor to the U.S. Department Chairman of the House Foreign Former U.S. Secretary of State of State Affairs Committee, United States Congress William Perry Strobe Talbott Michael and Barbara Berberian President, The Brookings Institution; Coit D. Blacker Professor and Co-Director of the Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Director and Senior Fellow, Freeman Preventive Defense Project at the Spogli Institute, Stanford University; Timothy Wirth Center for International Security and Former Senior Director at the President, The United Nations Cooperation; Senior Fellow, Freeman National Security Council Foundation; Former U.S. Senator Spogli Institute, Stanford University James D. Wolfensohn Thomas Pickering Chairman and CEO, Wolfensohn Vice Chairman, Hills & Company; and Company; Former World Bank Former U.S. Ambassador to the President United Nations
International Advisory Group Members
Fernando Henrique Cardoso Anwar Ibrahim Lalit Mansingh Former President of Brazil Honorary President of AccountAbility; Former Foreign Secretary of India Former Deputy Prime Minister of Jan Eliasson Vincent Maphai Malaysia Former Special Envoy to the Chairman, BHP Billiton, South Africa UN Secretary-General on Darfur; Wolfgang Ischinger Paul Martin Former Foreign Minister of Sweden Chairman, Munich Conference on Former Prime Minister of Canada Ashraf Ghani Security Policy; Former German Ayo Obe Chairman of the Institute for State Ambassador to the United States Chair of the World Movement for Effectiveness; Former Minister of Igor S. Ivanov Democracy, Nigeria Finance for Afghanistan Former Russian Foreign Minister; Sadako Ogata Jeremy Greenstock Former Secretary of the Security President, Japan International Director, Ditchley Foundation; Council of Russia Cooperation Agency; Former UN Former UK Ambassador to the UN Wu Jianmin High Commissioner for Refugees Rima Khalaf Hunaidi President, China Foreign Affairs Salim Ahmed Salim Chief Executive Officer, Mohammed University; Former Ambassador Former Secretary-General of the bin Rashid Al Maktoum Foundation; of China to the UN Organization of African Unity Former Assistant Secretary-General Kishore Mahbubani and Director, Regional Bureau for Dean, Lee Kuan Yew School of Javier Solana Arab States, UN Development Program Public Affairs; Former Ambassador of High Representative for the Singapore to the UN Common Foreign and Security Policy, European Union
2 Managing Global Insecurity (MGI) Co-Directors
Bruce Jones Director and Senior Fellow We are especially indebted to MGI’s Center on International Cooperation research team—Holly Benner and New York University Jessie Duncan at the Brookings Institution, Catherine Bellamy and Carlos Pascual Richard Gowan at New York University’s Vice President and Director Center on International Cooperation Foreign Policy and Kate Chadwick at Stanford The Brookings Institution University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation—for their Stephen John Stedman instrumental role in developing the Senior Fellow ideas in this action plan and managing Center for International Security and Cooperation the Project’s extensive U.S. and inter- Stanford University national consultation agenda.
CONTENTS
Generating This Plan for Action ...... 4
Executive Summary...... 6
International Cooperation in an Era of Transnational Threats...... 10 A Foundation of Responsible Sovereignty...... 10 The Political Moment: U.S. and International Convergence ...... 12
An Agenda for Action...... 15
TRACK 1. U.S. Engagement: Restoring Credible American Leadership ...... 16
TRACK 2. Power and Legitimacy: Revitalizing International Institutions ...... 19
TRACK 3. Strategy and Capacity: Tackling Shared Threats...... 24
TRACK 4. Internationalizing Crisis Response: Focus on the Broader Middle East...... 30
Management: Sequencing and Targets of Opportunity...... 34
Timeline for Action 2009–2012 ...... 35 Summary of Recommendations Across Four Tracks ...... 37
Appendices Acronym List ...... 39 Endnotes ...... 40
September 2008 3 Generating this Plan for Action
he Managing Global Insecurity (MGI) Project seeks for their resonance internationally. American and Tto build international support for global institutions international leaders were brought together to consider and partnerships that can foster international peace and draft proposals. Through this global dialogue, the security—and the prosperity they enable—for the next Project sought a shared path forward. 50 years. MGI is a joint initiative among the Brookings Institution, the Center on International Cooperation at MGI’s findings also derive from extensive research and New York University, and the Center for International analysis of current global security threats and the per- Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. formance of international institutions. MGI solicited case studies from leading regional and subject experts Since its launch in the spring of 2007, MGI has sought that evaluated the successes and failures of international to develop its recommendations and conduct its work in responses to the “hard cases”—from the North Korean a manner best suited to address today’s most urgent nuclear threat to instability in Pakistan and state collapse global challenges—namely, by fostering a global dia- in Iraq. Both in the United States and internationally, logue. In a world where 21st century transnational MGI convened experts to review the Project’s threat- threats—from climate change to nuclear proliferation specific analyses and proposals. and terrorism—require joint solutions, discussions on these solutions must take place both inside and outside Financial support for the MGI project has also been American borders. As MGI launched this ambitious but robustly international. In addition to the Bertelsmann urgent agenda, the Project convened two advisory Stiftung, Rockefeller Brothers Fund, Ditchley groups—one American and bipartisan, and one interna- Foundation, William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, tional. MGI’s advisors are experienced leaders with John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and diverse visions for how the international security system UN Foundation, MGI has received funding and in-kind must be transformed. They are also skilled politicians support from the Royal Ministry of Foreign Affairs of who understand the political momentum that must Norway, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland and power substantive recommendations. the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. A number of think tanks and other institutions in Japan, China and MGI brought these groups together for meetings in India hosted workshops to debate the Project’s findings. Washington D.C., New York, Ditchley Park (UK), MGI is indebted to its diverse supporters. Singapore, and Berlin. With their assistance, MGI also conducted consultations with government officials, MGI’s research and consultations provide the foundation policymakers and non-governmental organizations for the following Plan for Action, a series of policy briefs, across Europe and in Delhi, Beijing, Tokyo, Doha, and and MGI’s book, Power and Responsibility: International Mexico City. MGI held meetings at the United Nations, Order in an Era of Transnational Threats (forthcoming, and with African and Latin American officials in Brookings Press 2009). The authors are solely respon- Washington D.C. and New York. On the domestic front, sible for the following analysis and recommendations. MGI met with Congressional and Administration Based on MGI’s consultations, however, they are confi- officials as well as foreign policy advisors to the U.S. dent this is a historic opportunity for the United States Presidential campaigns. Ideas generated in international to forge new partnerships to tackle the most pressing consultations were tested on U.S. constituencies; ideas problems of this century. generated among U.S. policymakers were sounded out
4 The MGI project has consulted with field leaders and policymakers from around the globe and across party lines to generate discussion and debate, as well as build consensus among diverse perspectives.
Top: MGI Advisory Group Member Sadako Ogata, President, Japan International Cooperation Agency; Group shot: Members of the MGI Advisory Group meeting at Bertelsmann Stiftung in Berlin, Germany, July 2008; Bottom, left to right: MGI Advisory Group Member Salim Ahmed Salim, Former Secretary-General of the Organization of African Unity; MGI Co-Directors (from left), Stephen Stedman, Senior Fellow, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University; Carlos Pascual, Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy, The Brookings Institution; Bruce Jones, Director and Senior Fellow, Center on International Cooperation, New York University.
5 Executive Summary
he 21st century will be defined by Just as the founders of the United To build a cooperative international Tsecurity threats unconstrained by Nations and Bretton Woods institutions order based on responsible sovereignty, borders—from climate change, nuclear after World War II began with a vision global leaders must act across four proliferation, and terrorism to conflict, for international cooperation based different tracks. poverty, disease, and economic instabil- on a shared assessment of threat and ity. The greatest test of global leader- a shared notion of sovereignty, today’s TRACK 1. U.S. Engagement: Restoring ship will be building partnerships and global powers must chart a new course Credible American Leadership institutions for cooperation that can for today’s greatest challenges and No other state has the diplomatic, meet the challenge. Although all states opportunities. International coopera- economic and military capacity nec- have a stake in solutions, responsibility tion today must be built on the principle essary to rejuvenate international for a peaceful and prosperous world of responsible sovereignty, or the notion cooperation. But to lead, the United will fall disproportionately to the that sovereignty entails obligations and States must first re-establish itself traditional and rising powers. The duties toward other states as well as to as a good-faith partner. United States most of all must provide one’s own citizens. leadership for a global era. Unilateral U.S. action in Iraq, The US Presidential election provides Guantanamo, Abu Ghraib, torture, U.S. domestic and international opin- a moment of opportunity to renew rendition, and the rhetorical associa- ions are converging around the urgent American leadership, galvanize action tion of the Iraq war with democracy need to build an international secu- against major threats, and refashion promotion have damaged American rity system for the 21st century. Global key institutions to reflect the need for credibility internationally. The United leaders increasingly recognize that partnership and legitimacy. Delays will States must demonstrate its commit- alone they are unable to protect their be tempting in the face of complex ment to a rule-based international interests and their citizens—national threats. The siren song of unilateral ac- system that rejects unilateralism and security has become interdependent tion will remain—both for the United looks beyond military might. In turn, with global security. States and the other major powers. major states will be more willing to
AGENDA FOR ACTION T R Restoring Credible AC K
American Leadership 1 VISION OBJECTIVE T
An international order founded on The next U.S. President, in partner- R Revitalizing Inter national AC
responsible sovereignty that delivers ship with other major and emerging K
Institutions 2 global peace and prosperity for the powers, launches a campaign in T R
next 50 years. 2009 to revitalize inter national AC
Tackling Shared Threats K
cooperation for a changed world. 3 T R Internationalizing AC K
Crisis Response 4
6 share the burden in resources and affect their security and prosperity. expend political capital to manage Traditional powers cannot achieve global threats. A new American sustainable solutions on issues from President should: economic stability to climate change without the emerging powers at the ne- s 3END HIS TOP CABINET OFlCIALS FOR gotiating table. Global leaders should: early consultations on international priorities with allies and the rising s #REATE A NEW 'ROUP OF ' TO powers alike; foster cooperation between the G8 s $ELIVER CONSISTENT AND STRONG MES- and Brazil, China, India, South The aim of the MGI project is sages on international cooperation Africa, Mexico (the Outreach 5) and ambitious and urgent: to domestically and internationally— the nations of Indonesia, Turkey, including in speeches in the lead-up Egypt or Nigeria. Replacing the launch a new reform effort for to the Group of 8 (G8) and the UN OUTDATED ' THE ' WOULD SERVE the global security system in General Assembly meetings in 2009, as a pre-negotiating forum to forge laying out a vision for a 21st century preliminary agreements on major 2009 … for the global system security system; and global challenges; is in serious trouble. It is simply s #LOSE THE 'UANTANAMO $ETENTION s )NITIATE VOLUNTARY VETO REFORM AT THE facility and initiate efforts toward a UN Security Council (UNSC) as a not capable of solving the more sustainable U.S. detainee confidence building measure toward policy; and declare U.S. commitment UNSC reform; challenges of today. You all to uphold the Geneva Conventions, s %ND THE MONOPOLY OF THE 53 know the list: terrorism, the Convention Against Torture and and Europe on leadership at the other laws of war. International Monetary Fund (IMF) nuclear proliferation, climate and World Bank, and refocus the change, pandemics, failing Over time, the United States will also IMF’s mandate to exercise surveil- need to dramatically upgrade its civilian lance over exchange rate polices and states … None can be solved foreign policy corps, including doubling to facilitate the smooth unraveling of by a single government alone. the size of the foreign service in 10 global imbalances; and years and re-writing the Foreign Assistance s 3TRENGTHEN REGIONAL ORGANIZATIONS — Javier Solana Act to elevate development priorities including a 10-year capacity building High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, European Union; and improve aid effectiveness. effort for the African Union and sup- MGI Advisory Group Member port for a regional security mecha- TRACK 2. Power and Legitimacy: nism for the Middle East. Revitalizing International Institutions The legitimacy and effectiveness Expansion of the UNSC would be the of key international institutions are most dramatic signal of commitment to enhanced by increasing represen- share the helm of the international sys- tation of emerging powers and tem. However, the conditions for this re-focusing mandates toward 21st are unlikely to be propitious in 2009, century challenges. and a mishandled effort could under- mine progress on other fronts. Decisive The leadership and mandates of key expansion of the G8 in 2009 would lay international institutions—from the a credible foundation for action on G8 to the UN Security Council—have UNSC expansion within the first term not kept pace with the new powerhold- of the new U.S. President. ers and dynamic threats of a changed world. Emerging powers are excluded from decision-making processes that
7 TRACK 3. Strategy and Capacity: forge scientific consensus on the dan- Tackling Shared Threats gers and benefits of biotechnology; Enhanced international cooperation s )NCREASE INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT IN and international institutions are uti- conflict management with a goal of lized to manage key global threats. 50,000 international peacekeeping reserves and two billion in funding The global agenda—the 2009 confer- for peacebuilding; and ence of the UN Framework Convention s %STABLISH A 5. (IGH #OMMISSIONER FOR on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Counter Terrorism Capacity Building We are witnessing the early 2010 review conference on the Nuclear to focus international efforts to build stages of a shift of the center Non-Proliferation Treaty, and global counter-terrorism norms and capacity. trade pressures—demands action. In of gravity of international rela- the case of climate change, continua- TRACK 4. Internationalizing Crisis tion of current trends in the use of fossil tions from the Atlantic to the Response: Focus on the Broader fuels would constitute a new form of Middle East Pacific. A simple expansion “mutually assured destruction.” There Internationalize crisis response in is no doubt of the catastrophic effects the broader Middle East to address of the G8 is not enough— if nuclear weapons are used or fall into regional conflict and transnational new great powers must share the wrong hands. Global leaders should: threats. responsibility as equal partners s .EGOTIATE A CLIMATE CHANGE AGREE- Global leaders must have confidence that a 21st century international secu- for setting the agenda. For its ment under UNFCCC auspices that includes emission targets for 2020 rity system will produce better outcomes part, China increasingly sees and 2050 and investments in technol- on the crises at the top of their national ogy, rain forests and mitigation; security agendas. The Middle East is that its security is closely tied s 2EVITALIZE THE CORE BARGAIN OF THE the most unstable region in the world, to global security. Particularly non-proliferation regime by nuclear and a vortex of transnational threats. weapons states, particularly the 4HE ' IN COOPERATION WITH LEADING in the area of climate change United States and Russia, reducing regional actors, can help to identify and energy security, there is their arsenals, and by all states shared interests in regional stability and endorsing the Additional Protocol catalyze more focused international vast scope for cooperation. and working to develop an interna- support. Global leaders should: tional fuel bank; and — Wu Jianmin President, China Foreign Affairs University; s )NITIATE ' hPRE NEGOTIATIONSv s -OVE THE !NNAPOLIS PROCESS FORWARD MGI Advisory Group Member on an open and inclusive trade to support an Israeli-Palestinian regime to conclude a World Trade peace settlement; Organization (WTO) round that s #OMMIT ADEQUATE FORCES AND CIVIL- benefits poor countries. ian capacity for a stable peace in Afghanistan; Progress must also be made across other s &OCUS 53 AND INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS key global challenges—deadly infectious on a political settlement and civilian disease, the abuse of biotechnology, surge for Iraq; regional and civil conflict, and global s 3USTAIN REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL terrorism. Global leaders should: diplomacy on Iran’s nuclear pro- gram; and s "UILD LOCAL PUBLIC HEALTH CAPACITY TO s )NITIATE EFFORTS TOWARD A REGIONAL achieve full implementation of the security arrangement for the Middle International Health Regulations East that could, as existing crises (2005) and develop an intergovern- eased, provide a mechanism to guar- mental panel on biotechnology to antee borders and promote stability.
8 International Cooperation for a affairs. The agenda for action will not Changed World be completed in two years or ten. Yet, we cannot wait to start. The longer American and global leaders face a the delay in new approaches and new choice: they can either use this mo- cooperation against today’s threats, ment to help shape an international, the more difficult the challenges will rule-based order that will protect their become. Global leaders must chart global interests, or resign themselves to a shared path forward that marries an ad hoc international system where power and responsibility to achieve they are increasingly powerless to together what cannot be achieved A new American President shape the course of international apart: peace and security in a transna- will have to re-start a global tional world. conversation with the world’s traditional and emerging powers that moves from monologue to dialogue. Partnership and cooperation must be the centerpiece of successful American leadership in confronting 21st century threats, where protecting U.S. security is intimately linked with promoting global stability.
— Thomas Pickering Vice Chairman, Hills & Company; Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations; MGI Advisory Group Member
9 International Cooperation in an Era of Transnational Threats
he greatest test of global leader- and re-examine their responsibilities. Tship in the 21st century will be how While that is true of every country, nations perform in the face of threats it is especially true of the most pow- that defy borders—from nuclear prolif- erful—which must exercise the most eration, conflict, and climate change to responsibility. terrorism, threats to biological security, and global poverty. Ours is now a world U.S. foreign policy has lagged behind where national security is interdepen- these realities. A new approach is dent with global security. needed to revitalize the alliances, di- plomacy, and international institutions The most pressing challenges Globalization has resulted in unprec- central to the inseparable relationship of this century are not con- edented opportunities. The ability to between national and global security. tap into global markets for capital, strained by borders. Achiev- technology and labor has allowed the U.S. leadership is indispensable if the ing security and prosperity in private sector to amass wealth unfath- world as a whole is to be successful in omable 50 years ago: it has helped lift managing today’s threats. But American today’s interconnected world hundreds of millions out of poverty in leadership must be re-focused toward requires greater cooperation emerging economies. For China, inte- partnership—continuing partnership gration into the global economy has with allies in Europe, Asia and Latin amongst the world’s leading been the driver of one of the most re- America, and cultivating new partner- markable stories of national progress ships with rising powers such as China, powers. The recommenda- in human history—500 million people India, Brazil and South Africa. The tions of the Managing Global have been raised out of poverty in just policies, attitudes, and actions of major thirty years.1 states will have disproportionate influ- Insecurity project provide a ence on whether the next 50 years tend vital step toward the neces- Yet, the forces of globalization that to international order or entropy. The have stitched the world together actions of a new U.S. President, working sary reform of the international and driven prosperity can also tear with the leaders of the traditional and security order. it apart. In the face of new transna- rising powers, will profoundly influence tional threats and profound security the shape of international security and — James Wolfensohn interdependence, even the strongest prosperity for a global age. Chairman and CEO, Wolfensohn and Company; Former World Bank President; nations depend on the cooperation of MGI Advisory Group Member others to protect their own national security. No country, including the A Foundation of Responsible United States, is capable of success- Sovereignty fully meeting the challenges, or capi- Unprecedented interdependence does talizing on the opportunities, of this not make international cooperation changed world alone. It is a world for inevitable. Rather, shared interests which we are unprepared, a world that must be translated into a common poses a challenge to leaders and citi- vision for a revitalized international zens alike to redefine their interests security system that benefits all.
10 Foresight, imagination, pragmatism as well as to one’s own citizens.2 To pro- and political commitment, fueled by tect national security, even to protect effective American leadership, created sovereignty, states must negotiate rules a new international era after World and norms to guide actions that rever- War II. Institutions such as the United berate beyond national boundaries. Nations, the International Monetary Responsible sovereignty also implies a Fund, the World Bank and the General positive interest on the part of powerful Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (now states to provide weaker states with the the World Trade Organization) con- capacity to exercise their sovereignty tributed to extraordinary economic responsibly—a responsibility to build. Responsible sovereignty— growth and helped to prevent major- the idea that states must take power war. Innovation and political MGI emphasizes sovereignty because engagement on the same scale are states are still the primary units of the responsibility for external needed to achieve security and pros- international system. As much as glo- effects of their actions—is a perity in the years ahead. balization has diminished the power of states, there is simply no alternative to brilliant new idea whose time However, the vision necessary for a 21st the legally defined state as the primary has come. No village can century international security system actor in international affairs nor is is clouded by a mismatch between there any substitute for state legitimacy accept a home whose actions existing post-World War II multilateral in the use of force, the provision of institutions premised on traditional justice, and the regulation of public endanger the village. Neither sovereignty—a belief that borders are spheres and private action. can the global village accept sacrosanct and an insistence on non- interference in domestic affairs—and MGI emphasizes responsibility because, the behavior of nations which the realities of a now transnational in an era of globalization, adherence endanger the globe. world where capital, technology, labor, to traditional sovereignty, and deference disease, pollution and non-state actors to individual state solutions, have failed — Kishore Mahbubani traverse boundaries irrespective of the to produce peace and prosperity. In Dean, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Affairs; Former Ambassador of Singapore to the UN; desires of sovereign states. a transnational world, international MGI Advisory Group Member cooperation is essential to give states the The domestic burdens inflicted by means to meet the most fundamental transnational threats such as poverty, demands of sovereignty: to protect their civil war, disease and environmental people and advance their interests. degradation point in one direction: toward cooperation with global partners Responsible sovereignty, in sum, is a and a strengthening of international guidepost to a better international sys- institutions. Entering agreements or tem. Just as the founders of the United accepting assistance is not a weakening Nations and Bretton Woods institutions of sovereignty; it is the exercise of sov- began with a vision for international ereignty in order to protect it. cooperation based on a shared assess- ment of threat and a shared notion of The MGI Project’s consultations have sovereignty, today’s global powers must informed and validated the view that chart a new course for today’s greatest a new era of international coopera- challenges and opportunities. tion should be built on the principle of responsible sovereignty: the idea that states must take responsibility for the exter- nal effects of their domestic actions— that sovereignty entails obligations and duties towards other sovereign states 11 The Political Moment:U.S. and major candidates have spoken out for International Convergence restoring U.S. leadership and moral standing, viewing this as critical to the A new vision for global security will only succeed if it is powered by politi- protection of U.S. security. cal commitment and has the support of diverse regions and influential con- The next U.S. President has the oppor- stituencies. International politics and tunity to feature international coopera- global realities are converging to make tion as the centerpiece of a strategy to restore America’s global leadership. such cooperation possible. National sovereignty becomes Americans want their country to be U.S. Interest respected, they want to lead, and they responsible sovereignty when want to feel more secure as a result of In the United States, MGI consulta- nations pay heed both to the tions with policymakers and recent U.S. engagement. polling highlight that American citi- domestic demands of their zens and American leadership across Just as important, current global reali- own citizens and to their inter- party lines are concerned with a declin- ties leave no alternative to coopera- ing U.S. image internationally. tion. On January 20, 2009, the next national responsibilities. Patrio- American President will inherit cri- In a 2007 national poll, 81% of ses in Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, North tism requires internationalism. Korea, Darfur, Pakistan, and the Americans favored a Presidential candi- — David Miliband date who said the United States should Middle East. There will be many re- Secretary of State for Foreign and “share the burden” and not be the sole gional and national challenges to a via- Commonwealth Affairs, United Kingdom supplier of resources, finances, mili- ble foreign policy: the rise of India and Excerpt from speech to Peking University, Beijing, tary forces, and diplomacy for peace in China, an energy-brash Russia, and an February 29, 2008. the world. Americans polled rejected African continent caught between new “going it alone,” and believed the economic opportunities and a legacy of United States should be a global leader conflict and failed governance. The and a “role model” for democracy.3 international community will demand Presidential candidates have mirrored action on climate change and the global this bipartisan public sentiment: both food crisis. An American recession will
TABLE 1: SEVEN REALITIES ABOUT THE ROLE OF THE UNITED STATES IN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
For the United States For the World In a world of new transnational dangers, the United States cannot defend Major and rising powers benefit from a strong United States that provides itself unilaterally against what threatens it. 1 vital global public goods. To gain sustained cooperation on threats to U.S. security, the United States International stability and prosperity in the next 20 years will depend heavily must also address the security concerns of other nations. 2 on U.S. power and leadership. Mililtary power, used in isolation, can be counterproductive in securing the America’s experience with unilateralism should be a salutary warning to cooperation needed to ensure U.S. security. 3 other rising powers tempted to ‘go-it-alone.’ International institutions are much more important to American security goals The costs of delaying revitalized international cooperation will increase over than U.S. policy makers admit or the public realizes. 4 time; it is best to engage now. The international institutions that the United States uses daily to meet its The United States will only commit itself to international norms and institu- security needs must be strengthened or reinvented. 5 tions if it is convinced they protect U.S. interests. American policies since 9/11 have led other states toward ‘soft balancing’: The road to a strengthened and more equitable international system requires resisting reforms of the international system perceived as beneficial to the 6 the engagement of all major powers, including the concerted engagement of United States. the United States. If the United States wants cooperation in strengthening international insti- With greater voice and influence in the global system, new powers must tutions, the U.S. must see them as more than tools to be used or ignored to 7 take on greater responsibility for its upkeep and health. suit short-term political interests.
12 focus attention on vulnerabilities in the 24,000 people across 24 countries global financial system. Key U.S. allies surveyed in March and April 2008, a will seek renewed U.S. commitment to majority expressed negative views of the multilateralism. role that the United States is playing in the world. In 14 of 24 countries, two-thirds The United States cannot retreat from or more of respondents expressed little this agenda any more than it can man- or no confidence in President Bush to age it alone. America needs global do the right thing in world affairs. The partners: to combat threats to the belief that the United States does not American people, to wield influence take into account the interests of other The next American President with actors such as North Korea and countries in formulating its foreign policy will have to reintroduce Amer- Iran, to share the burden on com- is extensive even among U.S. allies such plex challenges, and to sustain global as the UK and Australia and overwhelm- ica to the world in order to 4 systems that allow the United States ing in the Middle East and Asia. regain its trust in our purpose access to capital and markets critical to economic growth in a dismal domestic Yet, internationally, most policymak- as well as our power. ...The budget environment. It is in America’s ers also still recognize that there is no success of [U.S.] policies and self-interest to act now, while its influ- prospect for international security and ence is strong, to model leadership for prosperity in the next 20 years that efforts will depend not only on the 21st century based on the prem- does not rely heavily on U.S. power and ise of partnership and recognition of leadership. The United States has the the extent of our power, the interdependence. world’s largest economy, strongest mili- strength of our purpose and tary and broadest alliances. The world Global Interest needs the United States to use its lead- cohesion of regional alliances, MGI consultations in key capitals in di- ership and resources for the resolution but also by an appreciation of verse regions—from Beijing and Delhi of transnational threats. If the United to London and Doha—reinforced States blocks international solutions on great power limits. that unilateral U.S. action in Iraq, and issues such as climate change, nuclear — Chuck Hagel across a range of foreign policy issues, security and financial stability, sustain- U.S. Senator from Nebraska; has cast a long shadow on America’s able global outcomes are unachievable. Excerpt from address at MGI speaker series event standing in the world and alienated at the Brookings Institution, June 26, 2008 even close allies. Key international Traditional and emerging powers also stakeholders are eager for strong signals share with the United States a self-interest from a new U.S. administration that in a resilient and effective international it is willing to re-value global partner- order. Europe is the world’s most ships and re-commit the United States rule-based society, yet erosion of a to a rules-based international system. rule-based international system means that Europe is taking on commitments, International public opinion polls such as on carbon emissions and reinforce this sentiment. Of more than foreign aid, with increasingly marginal
On his first day in office, the next U.S. President CRISES GEOPOLITICAL GLOBAL will face a daunting agenda — one that will be Iraq China Nuclear impossible to address through unilateral action. Iran India Climate Change This agenda will contain regional crises, evolving geopolitical dynamics and broader threats with the Afghanistan Africa Terrorism potential to undermine global security. This action North Korea Russia Energy Latin America plan demonstrates concrete steps for how an Middle East Peace and Conflict Turkey American administration can leverage international cooperation to tackle these challenges. Pakistan Trans-Atlantic Poverty and Darfur Asia-Pacific Financial Instability
13 impact. Japan has a vital interest in a proliferation, or the spread of global stable transition in security arrange- terrorism. ments in Asia and globally. Leaders in China, India and the emerging econo- We must capitalize on momentum gen- mies recognize that their economic erated from a convergence of global growth relies on a strong and resilient and U.S. domestic interests to build an international trade and finance system. international security system for the 21st To continue to develop its oil and gas century. The case for amplified interna- reserves, Russia will need international tional cooperation is not a soft-heartedMore respected Less respected As respected technology, and sufficient trust from its appeal to the common good100 but rather partners to invest in and secure transna- a realist call to action that 90is demanded tional pipelines. None of the traditional both domestically and internationally.80 78% 78% 67% or rising powers profit from unchecked 70 60 50 40 30 There continues to be an American con sensus that we are 20% less respected by other countries and this is a major problem. 20 15% 17% 10% 10 6% 5% 0 July 2004 September 2007 July 2008 More Respected v. Less Respected: Major Problem v. Minor Problem: Compared with the past, would you say the United States is Do you think less respoect for America by other more respected by other countries…less respected by other countries is a major problem or a minor problem? Major Problem v. Minor Problem: Do you think less respect for countries…or as respected as it has been in the past? America by other countries is a major problem or a minor problem?
More respected Less respected As respected Major Problem Minor Problem Not a problem 100 100 90 90 78% 78% 80 80 76% 73% 70 67% 70 64% 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 28% 20% 21% 23% 20 15% 17% 20 10% 10 6% 5% 10 6% 3% 4% 0 0 July 2004 September 2007 July 2008 July 2004 September 2007 July 2008
Major Problem v. Minor Problem: Do you think less respect for United Nations Foundation and Better World Campaign, Public Concern Poll 2008, “New Consensus Emerging on Value of Forging Global Partnerships to Enhance America by other countries is a major problem or a minor problem? Security, Reduce Foreign Oil Dependence, Address Climate Change” http://www. betterworldcampaign.org/news-room/press-releases/us-reject-go-it-alone.html. Major Problem Minor Problem Not a problem 100 90 80 76% 73% 70 64% 60 50 40 30 28% 21% 23% 20
10 6% 3% 4% 0 July 2004 September 2007 July 2008
14 An Agenda for Action
uring MGI consultations, U.S. and in- International order will require power Global governance requires simulta- ternational experts and policymakers to underpin responsibility. Our analysis D neously dealing with different issues stressed that only through responsible identified five pre-requisites: 1) effective in different ways while recognizing international action on transnational U.S. policy and leadership; 2) institution- and using to good effect the linkages threats can nations create the capacity alized cooperation between the United among them. Just as many of the to defuse and ideally prevent regional States and the traditional and emerging threats we face today are mutually and global crises. If short-term crises powers; 3) negotiated understandings exacerbating, their solutions can be crowd out lasting reforms, nations and of the application of responsible sover- mutually reinforcing. We are more policymakers will deny themselves the eignty across key threat areas; 4) effective likely to make progress on specific tools to stem future disasters. If action and legitimate international institutions; issues if we work on them in the languishes, nationalistic opportunism and 5) states capable of carrying out context of a broader agenda. may provoke unilateral actions that un- their responsibilities toward their own dermine sustainable solutions. Conflict, people and internationally. — Strobe Talbott isolationism, and protectionism then President, The Brookings Institution; Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State; become imminent threats to global We have incorporated these prerequisites MGI Advisory Group Member security and prosperity. Climate change into a plan for action with four parallel and nuclear proliferation will become tracks: to restore U.S. standing interna- existential challenges to our planet: the tionally; to revitalize international institu- tools in track two are not ends in them- clock is already ticking. tions; to respond to transnational threats; selves—they emerge from the agenda on and to manage crises. We start with the transnational threats. We present them Historically it has taken war or catastrophe United States because American credibil- as the second track in order to apply to bring about a redefinition of sovereignty ity is critical for effective leadership. We them in track three. Each track identifies and a re-building of international order. make crisis management the fourth track both opening actions to build political Our challenge is to use the urgency of to underscore that if not addressed in momentum and a continuing agenda looming security challenges, and the pros- tandem with the others, ad hoc solutions to sustain the concerted engagement pect for positive results, to drive progress. will not be sustainable. The institutional required to produce results.
AGENDA FOR ACTION T R Restoring Credible AC K
American Leadership 1 VISION OBJECTIVE T
An international order founded on The next U.S. President, in partner- R Revitalizing Inter national AC
responsible sovereignty that delivers ship with other major and emerging K
Institutions 2 global peace and prosperity for the powers, launches a campaign in T R
next 50 years. 2009 to revitalize inter national AC
Tackling Shared Threats K
cooperation for a changed world. 3 T R Internationalizing AC K
Crisis Response 4
15 U.S. Engagement Restoring Credible
TRACK 1 American Leadership
efore investing political energy and region and internationally. This senti- Bresources, other states will look ment has diminished the willingness first for signs beyond rhetoric that the or ability of other nations to cooperate United States seeks genuine global with the United States. partnerships and is committed to an agenda for cooperative action. The rhetorical association of the Iraq war with democracy promotion has Since the end of the Cold War, the further undermined American ideals U.S. political system has vacillated in once admired globally and squandered its support for the international rule of one of the United States’ great assets: its I strongly believe that many of law and international institutions. The reputation for protecting and promot- the emerging threats the world United States has established itself as ing human rights and the rule of law. sheriff and judge of the international Guantanamo, Abu Ghraib, torture, and now faces, such as nuclear system but has at times neglected to rendition have damaged American proliferation, climate change, abide by the rules itself. In reality, no credibility on human rights in large country gains more from a strong inter- parts of the world, especially in Muslim- and transnational terrorism, national legal regime than the United populated countries. must be met by strong U.S. States, precisely because the United States has so many interests to pro- U.S. engagement and leadership will leadership and renewed tect. A rule-based international system be required across many issue areas, safeguards American citizens, military but first the United States must rees- engagement with the global forces, and corporations. tablish its bona fides. The following community. Restoring U.S. acts taken by the United States would While the U.S. campaign in Afghanistan signal a willingness to re-commit to standing in the world and after 9/11 garnered widespread inter- a rule-based international order, and encouraging the constructive national support, U.S. actions in Iraq look beyond military might as a pri- generated popular and political anger mary foreign policy tool. use of American power is against the United States both in the central to fostering greater international cooperation to counter these threats.
— Howard Berman Representative from California, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, United States Congress; MGI Advisory Group Member
16 TRACK 1
OPENING ACTIONS: Restoring Credible American Leadership
Deliver Consistent and Strong and call on global and regional leaders to Messages on International Cooperation work together over the course of his term The messages of the United States on the to make decisive progress on a defined value of international cooperation and its action plan. This agenda could be set out commitment to global partnerships must be in speeches in the lead-up to the 2009 consistent and strong. Style, tone and Group of 8 (G8) meeting in Italy, and at the After years of missed opportu- vocabulary will make a difference. From the UN General Assembly (UNGA) meeting in nities and some ill-considered outset of the administration, broad and September 2009. intense high-level consultation—by the U.S. initiatives, the next Admin- Secretaries of State and Defense, the Demonstrate Respect for a Rules- National Security Advisor, the Administrator Based International System istration inherits a complex and of the U.S. Agency for International The United States must make clear that challenging strategic situation. Development (USAID) and senior ambassa- it will uphold the articles of the Geneva dors or envoys—will signal to the interna- Conventions, the Convention Against This is compounded by...the Torture and other laws of war and reiterate tional community American dedication to urgent need to revitalize and dialogue and cooperative approaches. that it has no authority to torture anyone. These high-level officials should engage The President has an obligation under inter- rebuild international institutions traditional and rising powers early in the national law, and with a view to reciprocity, administration to gather insights on the to prevent torture and cruel, inhuman and and to rebuild frayed or dys- priorities of key states. degrading treatment of all prisoners, what- functional relations with key ever their status. The new U.S. President should commit the partners. The MGI project United States to leading efforts to revital- The 44th President should also immedi- does a masterful job of identi- ize the international security system. The ately announce his intention to close the President must deliver a strong message Guantanamo Detention facility and charge, fying the challenges as well as internationally that the United States is transfer, or release its approximately 270 dedicated to global partnerships and will detainees. Simultaneously, the U.S. adminis- the opportunities for American uphold the rule of law, and speak to U.S. tration should announce an effort to develop leadership...creatively weaving audiences on the importance of interna- a sustainable detainee policy, not only for tional cooperation to U.S. national security. Guantanamo but for U.S. detention facilities together a series of critical Following international and Congressional worldwide. The next President must work consultations, the President should lay out with Congress on a new detention frame- subject areas to be addressed the main elements of a multi-year agenda for work to address national security concerns on parallel tracks. key international agreements and institutions, while providing basic legal protections.5 — Chester A. Crocker Professor of Strategic Studies, Georgetown University; Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, African Affairs; A Continuing Agenda: Restoring as climate change, terrorism, global MGI Advisory Group Member Credible American Leadership poverty and conflict. Yet, U.S. spending Upgrade the U.S. Toolbox for on defense dwarfs civilian-side invest- Cooperative Diplomacy. The United ments. The Bush Administration’s fis- States needs a stronger civilian for- cal year 2009 budget request included eign policy capacity to help restore its $38.3 billion to fund the civilian-side international leadership and effectively foreign affairs and foreign aid budget. counter 21st century security threats. In comparison, the President asked Strengthened civilian tools for devel- for $515 billion for the Department of opment and diplomacy are critical to Defense’s core budget, before factoring combat key global challenges such in the cost of waging war in Iraq and
17 TRACK 1
Afghanistan.7 The United States is also The very administration of foreign pol- tied for last out of the 22 donor na- icy and foreign aid must also be over- tions of the Organization for Economic hauled. Whereas the private sector has Cooperation and Development (OECD) responded to globalization by decen- in terms of international aid as a per- tralizing operations, personnel short- centage of gross national income.8 ages have driven the State Department and USAID to centralize policy and The first priority is to create the civilian programs in Washington while pro- capability to understand and work with liferating the number of actors deliv- local counterparts to address the driv- ering foreign aid. In 2008, there are ers of terrorism, proliferation, poverty, more than 50 separate units in the U.S. conflict, and financial instability. This government involved in aid delivery.9 would involve doubling the size of the The result: diminished capacity to act Foreign Service within ten years. U.S. locally and no systematic means to representatives on the ground, with an ensure that civilian capacities are used understanding of local politics, culture, to their best effect to advance national history and language, are best placed interests. The Executive Branch and to inform policy choices. Such capacity Congress must work together to con- and flexibility requires more than the ceptualize anew the administration of 7,000 Foreign Service officers in the diplomacy, defense and development State Department and 1,000 in the U.S. to support common national security Agency for International Development goals. A new Foreign Assistance Act (USAID). must elevate global development as a ‘third pillar’ of U.S. foreign policy along with diplomacy and defense.10
18 Power and Legitimacy Revitalizing International
TRACK 2 Institutions
ebuilding an effective interna- in the decision-making processes that The Russian incursion into Georgia in Rtional security system will require affect their security and prosperity. 2008, for example, reinforces rather institutionalized venues for dialogue Conversely, there are fewer issues that than diminishes the need for institu- and negotiation among the major the G8 alone can resolve without the tional mechanisms that bring emerging and rising powers, as well as mecha- participation of emerging powers. While powers into a framework that intensi- nisms to achieve buy-in and legitimacy no individual nation wants to see itself fies international checks and balances. from a wider set of states. Neither the restrained by international norms, all Some argue that the West should isolate membership nor decision-making nations have an interest in seeing others Russia. While there is no question that mechanisms of today’s international abide by a common set of rules. the international community must con- institutions facilitate such a dialogue. demn Russia’s military action, isolation If the United States and other tradi- will only spark Russian nationalism in By 2050, the four most dynamic econo- tional powers seek sustainable solu- the short run, when Russia can afford mies in the world, Brazil, Russia, India, tions on issues from conflict to climate its truculence due to high energy prices. and China, are projected to produce change and nuclear proliferation, they Rather, the goal should be to play to 40% of global output.11 Yet only two of will need to make room for these new both the international community and the four are permanent members of the powers at the negotiating table. If new Russia’s long-term interests. In the long UN Security Council (UNSC) and only powers are not integrated as partners run, Russia will need technology and Russia is a participant in the G8. in the shaping of a revitalized interna- capital to sustain its energy sector and Emerging powers express intense tional security system, the enterprise has diversify its economy. It will need access frustration about their lack of inclusion little chance for success. to international markets. Bringing Russia into a wider grouping of nations that demonstrates these possibilities will Relative size of G7 and E7 economies better encourage restraint than trying to isolate Russia at a time when it is strong. G7 GDP E7 GDP
140,000 U.S. leadership in driving an expansion 120,000 of the UN Security Council would be the most dramatic and effective signal of 100,000 a changed commitment to international
80,000 order. However, the conditions for this are unlikely to be propitious in 2009, 60,000 and a mishandled effort at expansion will do more damage than good. The 40,000 new U.S. administration should work 20,000 on parallel tracks to improve bilateral relations with the traditional and ris- 0 2005 MER 2050 MER 2005 PPP 2050 PPP ing powers, including through decisive
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, 16 May 2006 expansion of the G8, and lay a credible pathway towards early expansion of the The seven largest emerging economies, the E7, are China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey. The Security Council. seven largest industrial economies, the G7, are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Columns labeled as PPP demonstrate the scale of the economies as calculated by Purchasing Power Parity exchange rates. Those labeled with MER were calculated using Market Exchange Rates.
19 TRACK 2
OPENING ACTIONS: Revitalizing International Institutions
Create a Group of 16 (G16) to Bridge The G16 would also engage heads of the UN, As a confidence building measure, the Effectiveness and Legitimacy International Monetary Fund (IMF), Word Bank, United States should lead on voluntary veto The creation of a new G16 at the 2009 G8 World Trade Organization (WTO), World Health reform at the Council on the most seri- summit meeting in Italy would be a bold Organization (WHO), regional organizations ous aspect of the Council’s business—the change to foster dynamic, cooperative and other international institutions and tap the authorization of the use of force, sanc- interaction between the United States and private and civic sectors for input. The G16 tions, or peacekeeping operations. It would the major and rising powers. Even if formal would not be an alternative to the UN or other substantially enhance the legitimacy of the inauguration of the G16 is not possible multilateral or regional bodies, but a vehicle to UNSC were the Permanent Five (P5) to in 2009, a core group already exists: the make them more effective. It would not handle agree—informally—that they would not use G8 plus Brazil, China, India, South Africa, acute threats, which should be addressed at the veto to block action on these issues and Mexico (called the “Outreach 5”). The the UN Security Council. Informal agreements unless at least two permanent members United States and other members of the within the G16 would be taken to more opposed that action. This would allow the G8 should insist on meeting with this full representative bodies for discussion and Security Council to avoid an impasse in group routinely, and use this grouping to review. Like the G8, it would schedule and responding to conflict and humanitarian forge consensus within the International conduct meetings flexibly—convening at the crises even if tensions arise among mem- Financial Institutions (IFIs) and other mul- Leader’s level annually, at the Foreign Ministers bers. This double veto agreement would tilateral fora on transnational issues. As level more often, and promote interaction provide the foundation for future efforts to circumstances allow this G13 should add among G16 national security advisors, political improve the Council’s effectiveness and Indonesia, Turkey, Egypt or Nigeria to directors, and other officials. legitimacy. The veto could still be used to include voices from diverse regions with block non-operational resolutions (condem- significant populations and economic influ- Restrain Use of the Veto on the Path natory, exhortative, etc) of the kind that clog ence. By 2012, when the United States Toward UN Security Council Reform the Council’s agenda. And in extremis—in has the G8 Presidency, or preferably ear- The G16 will be a critical part of an interna- defense of core interests or core allies—the lier, the G16 should be fully established. tional order based on responsible sovereignty, veto could still be wielded. but it is not a substitute for an effective and The G16 would represent economic, credible UN Security Council, which must political, and military powers from several remain at the core of the international security regions—incorporating those states whose system. However, an early initiative on UNSC positive contributions and blocking pow- membership expansion would risk political ers make them essential participants in a deadlock and detract attention from progress wide range of international and transna- on other issues. Three steps are needed as tional agreements. The G16 would take the interim measures on a path toward more place of the existing and outdated G8. Its comprehensive reform: 1) a commitment by purpose would be to serve as a pre-nego- permanent members to act on membership tiating forum, a place where the smallest reform within a defined time period; 2) possible grouping of necessary stake- discussion within international forums to build holders could meet to forge preliminary a shared definition of threat and conditions for agreements on responses to major global the use of force; and 3) action on procedural challenges. It would be a place to build and veto reform at the Security Council. knowledge, trust, and patterns of coopera- tion among the most powerful states. The G16 could, depending on the issue, draw on the insights and energies of a wider range of nations, large and small, by developing “groups of responsibility” to tackle specific problems.
20 TRACK 2
A Continuing Agenda: Revitalizing World Bank’s traditional leadership International Institutions role in global development has eroded. Middle-income countries have other Reform Representation and Mandate sources of capital; poor countries have of the International Financial other sources of development and tech- Institutions (IFIs). In order to achieve nical assistance. However, the Bank has a global system of economic governance an important role to play in promoting that reflects changes in capital, power, inclusive and sustainable globalization, and population, efforts to increase the particularly by helping developing coun- decision-making authority of emerging If the G8 is to continue to play tries link to the global economy, and economies in the IMF and the World in helping emerging economies bridge an important role, it must wid- Bank must be bolstered. The stability of the divide between rich and poor within the international financial system will en its membership to become their own borders. On climate change, require stronger capacity to detect and the World Bank has also emerged as a more representative of today’s prevent financial crises in countries with key international player, as it has with re- large capital balances that also have lim- world. If it does not … the G8 spect to fragile and post-conflict states: ited financial transparency and experi- these areas should be prioritized and will not only have become the ence in crisis management. To consent further developed in the Bank’s future to such scrutiny, emerging markets will assistance efforts. architect of its own decreasing want stronger representation in the IMF and World Bank. The United States and relevance, but global coop- Expand the UN Security Council. The Europe should offer a further redistribu- legitimacy of the Security Council is eration will have lost out once tion of shares to emerging economies grounded in the Charter, but depends and cede their monopoly on heading again to global competition as well on perceptions of whether its the World Bank and IMF as part of a decisions truly reflect global opinion. and the international system package to strengthen and target the Expansion to increase the representa- roles of these institutions. will fall even further behind tion of emerging powers and major donors is needed to sustain their coop- the ever evolving reality of the Forestalling future economic crises will eration and financing for institutional require the IMF to exercise transparent investments and for UNSC resolutions. global landscape…The time to and independent surveillance over the The United States would send a strong exchange rate policies of the United share power is when you have signal to emerging powers if in 2009 it States, Europe, Japan, China, and announced its commitment to UNSC it to share, not when others other systemically significant coun- reform and articulated a credible path- tries—powers it has only just begun to are in a position to wrest it way forward. By doing so, it would also acquire. On financial crises such as the re-assert its leadership at the UN. from your grip. sub-prime mortgage collapse, the IMF would ideally play a preventative role, —Paul Martin Seats in the Security Council should alerting members to potential weak- Former Prime Minister of Canada; not simply be a reflection of power, MGI Advisory Group Member nesses in the system before a crisis un- but should be an inducement towards folds. The IMF has the ability to spark responsibility. Linking new seats to con- dialogue, provide in-depth analysis and tributions to international peace and independent assessment, and serve as security would send a strong signal. an “honest broker” to bring together Expansion should also deal with con- THE ' AND KEY REGIONAL GROUPS TO cerns about a loss of the Council’s effi- redress the economic threat posed by ciency. The smallest possible expansion global imbalances. that can meet the goal of rebalancing and legitimating the Security Council Mandated to assist poor countries left must be pursued. behind by the global economy, the
21 First, the P5 should agree to an expan- states as ‘board members.’ Of particu- sion from the current base of 15 to 21 lar concern has been the consensus seats. The General Assembly would system (ironically, initiated by the elect the new members for six to ten United States) by which the General year terms based on criteria including: Assembly’s budget committees autho- financial contributions to the UN and rize the UN’s budget and manage its larger contributions to international spending. This has degenerated into peace and security, including at a re- a one-state, one-veto tool for micro- gional level. The criteria for election management. COULD BE PRE NEGOTIATED BY THE ' We currently have multilateral- (or the countries that would consti- The debate needs to be refocused on ism a la carte where nations tute it if its creation lags) and then the UN’s operational roles both in debated within the UNSC and General security and development. This is where choose among the forums that Assembly. A central feature of a viable the UN most directly affects human best pursue their interests. We package would be a fixed date set for lives, where the UN makes the largest when long-term seats are reviewed for investments, and where current need instead to restore the possible transformation into perma- management reform efforts are most legitimacy of the United Na- nent ones. lacking. While there are substantial inefficiencies in UN headquarters, its tions and pursue UN Security Revitalize UN Management of Security net budget of just over $2 billion pales and Development Efforts. The past in comparison to the more than $15 Council reform. We cannot four years have seen a debate over billion spent in 2007 on peacekeeping allow efficiency to trump management reform at the UN that and by the UN’s development and has fluctuated between sterile and humanitarian agencies.12 legitimacy in international politicized. At the core of the debate institutions—or permit the has been the balance between the pow- Secretary General Ban Ki-moon re- ers accorded to the Secretary-General cently proposed an ‘accountability reverse to be true. as chief operating officer of the UN, initiative’ that would focus on mod- — Lalit Mansingh and the powers accorded to member ernizing management performance Former Foreign Secretary of India; MGI Advisory Group Member
Undermining U.S. and International Convergence: The Risks of a Concert/League of Democracies
Some have proposed creating a League or Asia, the Middle East, Africa or Latin America. wrongly assumes that democracies would Concert of Democracies as a new institution The Concert, no matter its official mandate, agree on the use of force, which was clearly designed to strengthen security coopera- would alienate China, whose cooperation is refuted in the case of Iraq. tion among the world’s liberal democracies. essential for progress across other areas of If the United Nations cannot be reformed, shared interest, such as climate change, ter- If the purpose of the Concert is to support the Concert would “provide an alternative fo- rorism and nonproliferation. Instead of building emerging democracies, others queried how rum for liberal democracies to authorize col- on international convergence, MGI interlocutors the Concert would differ from the existing lective action, including the use of force.”14 in China said such a concept could form the Community of Democracies. Among all re- In addition, many have argued that such a basis for a second Cold War. Policymakers in gions we heard that if the goal of the Concert Concert or League would create a mecha- India argued that such a club would heighten, is even broader than authorizing the use nism to mobilize support for emerging not reduce, international insecurity by creating of force and promoting democracy, then democracies. divisions rather than unifying nations, while offi- it would assure its irrelevance by excluding cials from other key states allied with the United countries (e.g., China, Egypt) crucial to solv- In MGI’s consultations across diverse regions, States privately underscored that such an insti- ing global threats. we found few takers on the idea among any tution would be counter-productive, especially states, democratic or not, whether in Europe, by isolating China. Others noted that the idea
22 within the UN Secretariat and improve are regulatory and normative devices, AND ' SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT THE DEVEL- transparency and accountability of but the diplomatic suasion and pres- opment of a regional architecture for the the Secretariat to the member states. sure that is often required, especially in Middle East (see track 4)—where despite It would also helpfully focus on the managing escalating crises, resides a proliferation of transnational threats accountability of member states to the equally if not more so at the regional and conflict, a robust regional structure Organization—whether member states level. While many threats have global does not exist. live up to their commitments and back sources or causality, they are also felt mandates with resources. primarily at a regional level. This is especially so for developmental and 4HE 5. !MBASSADORS OF THE ' environmental issues, as geographic along with others, could commit to regions are frequently bound together in supporting this initiative and extend- common environmental or climate ing it to incorporate the rest of the systems. But it is also true of security ten largest UN spending activities issues such as terrorism. Even global where not already covered by the phenomena like pandemics have Secretary-General’s initiative.13 The REGIONAL CONCENTRATIONS 4HE ' AND goals should be increased effective- the U.S. should focus concerted ness, efficiency, and transparency in attention on strengthening regional the UN’s oversight and coordination fora as key elements of a revitalized of dozens of complex peacekeeping international security system. The notion that the United and development response efforts States and other powerful worldwide. Early movement on such The development and functions of re- reforms would help a new American gional organizations around the world nations understand what is President argue with confidence for a vary. The Bush Administration recently in the best interest of those stronger UN role in the areas of peace shifted towards a policy of recognizing and security, and would bolster inter- European security architecture as a posi- across the developing world, national arguments for an expansion tive contribution to both regional and of the UN’s role in development. global security—a policy that should con- or act based on these inter- tinue. Efforts to encourage the European ests, has vanished completely. Strengthen Regional Organizations. Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Regional organizations have played a Treaty Organization(NATO) to develop As a result, international insti- pioneering role in re-defining sover- modalities for civilian-military coopera- tutions dominated by these eignty, developing cooperative norms tion should also be supported. In Africa, across states, serving as first-responders THE 5NITED 3TATES AND THE ' SHOULD nations face a serious legiti- to regional crises, and jointly address- support a ten-year capacity building macy gap in the eyes of the ing transnational threats. Beyond the program for the African Union (AU), ' AND THE 5NITED .ATIONS REGIONAL particularly in the area of peace and se- broader global community. organizations will play increasingly curity. This will require multi-year legisla- important roles in managing and tive commitments of financial resources — Ayo Obe Chair of the World Movement for Democracy; implementing security arrangements. and sustained policy attention. As part of MGI Advisory Group Member Regional organizations can also make a wider engagement strategy with Asia, use of their core comparative advan- the next American President must also tage—proximity, in both physical and focus policy attention and resources on political terms—to rapidly respond to Asian regional security arrangements breaking crises. such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the ASEAN Effective regional arrangements (formal Regional Forum, and the Six-Party Talks or informal) are also vital for ensuring to strengthen the infrastructure for co- state compliance. Global institutions operation among Asian powers. The U.S.
23 Strategy and Capacity
TRACK 3 Tackling Shared Threats
he central task for a 21st century In all these issues, both powerful and Tinternational security system is vulnerable states are affected. In the creating cooperative arrangements to case of climate change, continuation counter the rise of threats that defy of current trends in the use of fossil borders and challenge sovereignty and, fuels would constitute a new form of at times, survival. “mutually assured destruction.” There is no doubt of the catastrophic effects MGI has focused on six global chal- if nuclear weapons are used or fall lenges—climate change, nuclear pro- into the wrong hands. liferation, threats to biological security, The cities, power plants and terrorism, conflict, and poverty and This agenda must also centrally factories we build in the next economic instability. Each requires involve actors beyond national gov- near-term attention and a sustained ernments. The private sector holds seven years will shape our strategy. Different countries and regions the capital and technology to solve climate in mid-century. We will prioritize different threats. In an problems ranging from climate interdependent world, action is neces- change to catastrophic disease. Local have to act now to price sary across this full agenda in order to governments are leading innova- carbon and create incentives get reciprocal cooperation on any one tors on energy security and efforts to nation’s top priorities. In other words: combat global warming. Labor views to change the way we use en- you have to cooperate with others if will be crucial to design means to you want them to cooperate with you. ease transitions in a global economy. ergy and spread technology— Non-governmental organizations play a and thereby avert nothing less The global agenda—the UN central role in advocacy and action on Framework Convention on Climate key threats. Schools, universities and than an existential threat to Change (UNFCCC) meeting in centers of excellence remain leaders civilization. December 2009 to forge a new interna- in generating ideas. In today’s world, tional agreement on climate change, public-private dialogue and action will — Rajendra K. Pachauri the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty be an essential part of an international Director-General, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), Nobel Peace Prize Laureate 2007, (NPT) review conference in 2010, and security system for the 21st century. Excerpt from keynote address at MGI Advisory the combination of a global food crisis Group Meeting, Berlin, July 15–16th, 2008. and the failure of the latest Doha Round meeting —put climate change, nuclear proliferation, and global poverty and economic instability at the forefront of the debate.
24 TRACK 3
OPENING ACTIONS : Tackling Shared Threats
Negotiate Two-Track Agreement on difficult: key states remain far apart on the Climate Change Under UN Framework politics of the challenge. Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Auspices Negotiations on the ‘abatement track’ could The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate be extended through a G16 Climate Group Change has estimated that the world has (a ‘group of responsibility’ that included mem- seven years to begin the reduction of bers of the G16 plus other states central to annual greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the emissions debate) that allowed for the global temperature changes by mid-century necessary negotiation between the major that would have devastating human, emitters. The G16 Climate Group should be environmental, and economic impacts. Unless (nuclear weapon established as a formal “Subsidiary Body Every major emitter must be party to the for Scientific and Technical Advice”—within states) make a serious ef- agreement for it to be effective. Developed the UNFCCC—closing the gap between the and developing countries must partner to major emitters process and the UN process. fort to reduce their nuclear design imaginative solutions to sustain The Group would negotiate a global target growth without the reliance on fossil fuels armaments, with concrete for 2015–2020 and commitments to pass that characterized the industrial revolution. binding national laws to implement this target. measures including a CTBT, The G16 could accept the principle of pricing Getting there is a massive challenge given carbon to promote conservation, spur innova- a drastic cut in the existing diverse political interests: the European tion and adopt common standards for report- Union (EU) and Japan favor binding carbon arsenal, and a fissile mate- ing carbon emissions. They would bring the emission targets, the United States does results of their negotiations to the UNFCCC not, China and India are focused on eco- rial cut-off, we will not have for wider discussion and buy-in, with the aim nomic growth, energy-exporting states care of a binding agreement on emissions by 2012 the moral authority to go about their markets, and poor developing or sooner as a companion to the international countries want both protection against the agreement on investment. after those who are trying to impacts of climate change and investment develop nuclear weapons… in modern infrastructure. Revitalize the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime —Mohamed ElBaradei The goal must be a new agreement to We have entered a second nuclear age where Director General of the International Atomic arrest global warming under the auspices of proliferation is no longer only a problem of Energy Agency (IAEA). Excerpt from remarks at MGI Advisory Group Meeting, Berlin, July the UNFCCC. An agreement must include states. Terrorists have sought nuclear weapons 15–16th, 2008. two tracks; 1) an ‘abatement track’ that and fissile material, while non-state actors have captures commitments on emissions created proliferation rings, selling nuclear weap- control; and 2) an ‘investment track’ ons technology and know-how. At the same covering conservation, technology, time, a combination of environmental concerns gagement with the NPT and other disarma- rainforests and adaptation to the effects of related to global warming and the volatility of ment treaties, the international community climate change. Ideally both tracks of such international oil and gas markets is resurrecting does not have the moral authority to deter an agreement will come together by the the demand for nuclear power, creating ten- states seeking to acquire nuclear weapons. UNFCCC Conference of the Parties in sions between energy needs and proliferation Copenhagen in December 2009. An concerns. In the Middle East and North Africa, Because the United States and Russia hold agreement on investment is within reach 14 states either have or have declared they will the world’s largest nuclear arsenals, they and will gain support from developed and pursue some form of nuclear program. play a critical role in setting the framework developing countries alike who desire for nuclear security. A coalition of former access to technology, resources, and other Although the NPT has been a cornerstone of cabinet secretaries, Shultz, Perry, and incentives to control emissions. Success on collective security for more than 40 years, its Kissinger, and Senator Nunn has revived the ‘abatement track’ will be far more foundations have eroded. Without strong en- U.S. bipartisan support for arms control. continued...
25 TRACK 3
OPENING ACTIONS : Tackling Shared Threats (continued)
Even so, nuclear reductions have become fundamental reality has not changed that the attention on regional and bilateral agree- all the more difficult after the tense standoff United States can reduce its nuclear arsenal, ments. However, the proliferation of bilateral between Russia and the West after the still deter against nuclear attacks, and better deals has made trade agreements harder crisis in Georgia. Yet these tensions only re- advance it nonproliferation goals. to negotiate and enforce. Moreover, the inforce the need for the U.S. and Russia to very transnational problems on agricultural use arms control as a means to normalize These opening steps need to be met with subsides and industrial protection that have relations, just as in 1983 President Reagan equal purpose from non-nuclear weapons thwarted a global agreement will continue decided to launch the Strategic Arms states, who should endorse making the to prevail bilaterally and regionally. Reduction Treaty, START, negotiations after Additional Protocol mandatory, and work with the Soviets downed a Korean Airlines pas- the nuclear weapons states to develop an The progress made in the 2008 nego- senger jet. international fuel bank under the International tiations should not be lost. Pascal Lamy, Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This bank would Director General of the WTO, should pub- Russia and the United States should stand assure nations access to nuclear fuel as long lish the 18 (out of 20) agreed trade areas down the alert status of nuclear forces, as they observe the NPT’s provisions, and from the negotiations. Even if they have pledge no-first use, negotiate strategic would create a means to centralize the control no formal legal standing, these 18 points arms reductions, and extend immediately and storage of spent nuclear fuel. should be the starting point for new nego- the inspection and verification provisions tiations rather than retreading old ground. to the START, which expires in December Sustain Commitment to a Global Trade Agreement 2009. They must engage at multiple The principle trading partners—starting with levels on missile defense—at a minimum Global systems of finance and trade have cre- a G16 subgroup of trade ministers from bilaterally and through the NATO-Russia ated unprecedented prosperity, yet the border- the United States, the European Union, Council—and thus build on the precept less nature of international markets can spread India, Brazil and China—must make clear of regulated missile defense established instability across countries and continents, that they expect new trade negotiations by under the now defunct Anti-Ballistic Missile threatening rich and poor. The world’s most 2010 and not leave room for speculation. Treaty. To establish its credibility on dis- powerful countries need resiliency in global These countries will shape the nature of the armament, the U.S. must also ratify the financial and trade systems to sustain prosper- trading regime. They must pre-negotiate on Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).15 ity. The poorest countries in the world need the most contentious points, and commis- access to global markets to combat poverty. sion research on complex issues that have A consensus had also begun to emerge blocked consensus. This research and among nuclear experts that the United The shock that emanated from Doha’s collapse pre-negotiation on the margins of the G16 States should declare a dramatic unilateral and the efforts made to avoid its failure reflect would form the basis for WTO convened reduction of nuclear weapons not needed a latent under-standing of the need to bring revival talks on the Doha round in late 2010 for deterrence or offensive purposes. While poor countries into the global trade regime. (following elections in the United States and the Russia-Georgia conflict has made a Some will argue that key players such as the for the European Commission). unilateral reduction politically difficult, the United States and Brazil should refocus
A Continuing Agenda: Foundations Yet, no focal point exists to coordinate Secretary General and President of the for Stability and Security analysis and measure impact. Many dif- World Bank should propose and create Create a Center of Excellence for ferent international institutions—from a Center of Excellence for Economic Prosperity Economic Prosperity. Experience has the World Bank and the IMF to the UN with members appointed by the heads shown that a range of strategies— Development Program (UNDP)—hold of the World Bank, IMF, WTO, OECD, from official development assistance a piece of the puzzle. and the UN Development Group. to stable financial markets to open Networks should be created with top trade—are required to promote eco- The 2010 summit on the Millennium research institutions globally to draw nomic prosperity tailored to the diverse Goals should be used as a target for on their expertise. The UN Secretary conditions facing the world’s poor. action. Well in advance, the UN General and the President of the World
26 TRACK 3
Bank would appoint a prominent year from deadly infectious diseases, international figure to head the Center, and every year new ones emerge, such supported by a secretariat seconded as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome from participating institutions. (SARS) and Avian Flu. In a world of 700 million international air passen- The Center would present points of gers yearly, and almost all on flights consensus; identify causal trends on shorter than the incubation times of poverty eradication; assess interrelation- infectious diseases, national health is ships among trade, finance and devel- only as good as global health. opment measures in specific countries; The recent food crisis is an investigate pressures and remedies for The challenge for biological security is urgent reminder of how deeply protectionism; and consolidate indi- two-fold. First, developed and devel- cators of both donor and recipient oping countries alike benefit from a interrelated issues like energy, performance. The Center would also strong global public health regime that climate change, and poverty consolidate the vast array of existing controls disease outbreaks and builds performance reports on MDGs and local capacity to sustain the health of are. We need a robust interna- financing into a poverty clock, a tool to citizens. Effective public health is also tional architecture to effectively show how overall poverty rates change crucial against the threat of bioter- over time within individual countries rorism. Given the global diffusion of tackle these threats to our and regions. dangerous techniques and substances, prevention will be difficult and there- shared security and prosperity. The Center’s work would be debated fore defenses—global and local public The MGI Project’s Plan for at the annual meetings of the IMF and health systems—must be robust. 7ORLD "ANK ' LEADERS WOULD ALSO Action puts forward important charge their development, finance The World Heath Organization’s and necessary steps for and trade ministers with completing a International Health Regulations comprehensive picture of progress and (2005) lay out state responsibilities to strengthening the capacity of problems. Findings would form the strengthen national and global dis- our international frameworks basis of the Millenium + 10 (2010) and ease surveillance and response. What Millenium + 15 (2015) Summits. is needed now is full implementation and institutions to produce of the regulations and building lo- Address the Security Challenges of cal health capacity in the developing results in today’s complex the Biological Century. While we are WORLD ! ' INITIATIVE IN CONJUNCTION world. entering a second nuclear age, we are with key leaders from the private sec- at the beginning of what some are al- tor, can ensure that when deadly infec- — Sylvia Mathews Burwell President, Global Development Program, ready calling the “Biological Century.” tious disease occurs, global reaction is The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Discoveries in the life sciences have swift and supports local capability. This MGI Advisory Group Member the potential to reshape the worlds of is a win-win opportunity for develop- health, food production, energy, and ment and security. climate change, leading to new fuels, heat and drought resistant food crops, Second, there is the need to promote and eradication of deadly diseases. But the bright side of biotechnology and biotechnology’s discoveries also have a protect against its dark side. In the dark side—potential immense harm long run, a new regime for biotech- through accidental or intentional re- nology safety and security needs to be lease of designer pathogens. created. The existing international regime to stop biological weapons, We also face myriad natural biological the Biological and Toxic Weapons threats. Fifteen million people die each Convention, is too slow and state-
27 TRACK 3 centric to address the dark-side uses support, unified doctrine and train- of biotechnology. With individuals ing as UN-designated peacekeepers, working in tens of thousands of the United States would never deploy industry, research, and university labs its forces. If existing responsibilities are in every part of the world, such a to be fulfilled and new crises to be met regime must engage industry, science, with adequate response, national and and the public. Intermediate steps multilateral capabilities will have to be can help create scientific consensus streamlined and strengthened. and international trust in order to spur collective action. An Intergovernmental A low-cost first step is investing in While considerable progress Panel on Safety of Biotechnology, capacities for mediation and preven- has been made in efforts akin to the body that generated tive diplomacy at the UN and regional international scientific consensus organizations to help forestall crises or at conflict resolution, much around climate change (the IPCC), respond rapidly to them. But diplo- more has to be done to deal could bring scientists from around matic methods will frequently lead to the world to forge consensus about demand for new peacekeeping op- with this scourge which has the trajectory of biotechnology risks. erations, and capacity there must be caused and continues to EXPANDED !S A CRITICAL STEP EACH ' Increase International Investments in member could designate a part of its cause death, destruction, and Conflict Management. Fragile and con- armed forces and police force for in- flict-ridden states that cannot maintain ternational peacekeeping, which could human misery as evidenced in rule of law or provide for the well-be- be made available directly to the UN the tragic situations in Darfur ing of their citizens undermine inter- or through regional organizations. The national order and magnify the risk goal would be 50,000 reserves supple- and Somalia. of other transnational threats such as mented by 20,000 police. The UN — Salim Ahmed Salim terrorism and deadly infectious disease. would be responsible for designating Former Secretary-General of the Civil violence often crosses borders and performance standards and qualifying Organization of African Unity; MGI Advisory Group Member draws regional and international actors training programs. into its vortex. In parallel, steps must be taken to With a rise in attention to internal con- strengthen international peacebuild- rapid start-up of operations. Finally, the flict in the post Cold War period, the ing. Peacebuilding is a complicated UN Peacebuilding Commission role international architecture for conflict endeavor that requires the integra- in coordinating strategic plans and the prevention and management grew by tion of traditional military peacekeep- contributions of diverse donors should leaps and bounds, with international ing with civilian initiatives to address be strengthened. Between headquar- institutions such as the UN, regional humanitarian need, increase local ters staff of the Peacebuilding Support organizations such as the European capacity to administer the rule of law, Office, and in-country strategy teams in Union and African Union, and individ- promote reconciliation, and re-build up to five concurrent missions, this will ual states, including the United States, STATE FUNCTIONS 4HE ' SHOULD SUPPORT require approximately 150 full-time staff UK, Canada, and India developing an initiative to develop a civilian reserve members. capabilities for conflict response. Nearly at the UN of at least 1,000 specialists 200,000 international peacekeepers to undertake key peacebuilding tasks, Establish a UN High-Commission for are deployed around the world, about rather than relying on ad hoc deploy- Counter-Terrorism Capacity Building. 100,000 of these under the United ment through contracts and multiple The deep unpopularity of the war in Nations. However, the performance AGENCIES AND DEPARTMENTS 4HE ' Iraq, which was inappropriately con- of international institutions has been and additional states with interest and nected to the campaign against Al mixed and capabilities still fall short of funds to devote to peacebuilding should Qaeda, has created a political context the challenge. If the U.S. military had also commit two billion in replenish- in many countries where combating comparable limitations in resources, able funds for peacebuilding to support terrorism is equated with supporting
28 TRACK 3 unpopular U.S. goals. Although many war against al Qaeda and its affiliates. for Counter-Terrorism Capacity governments continue to cooperate This will involve continuing offensive Building, modeled on the UN High with the United States on counter- operations in Afghanistan, including Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), terrorism objectives, they frequently devoting the necessary resources and that would fill a critical gap in counter- encounter significant domestic oppo- attention to that operation, as well as terrorism efforts. sition. Yet, all nations share an inter- sanctioning individuals and states that est in preventing terrorist attacks on support al Qaeda elsewhere. Following the UNHCR model, the their own soil and internationally. The Commission’s board would be politi- world’s leading economies would bear Since 9/11, the international com- cally and regionally diverse, and treaty the burden if a major terrorist attack munity has mobilized to establish new based. States seeking membership on disrupted international trade or desta- standards and principles for combat- the board of the High Commission bilized key financial markets. ing terrorism, notably through the would have to be in compliance with UN Security Council, the OECD, and UN counter-terrorism treaties and law, Having been the victim of the largest Interpol. Yet, despite widespread rec- creating an important lobby for con- terrorist attack in history and because ognition in principle that states remain tinued improvement in the counter- of its global reach, the United States the front line of any counter-terrorism terrorism regime. As a UN body, its should be the natural leader in strategy, there is no dedicated inter- policies and capacities could command cooperative efforts to combat terror- national capacity to help weaker states substantial legitimacy, especially within ism. But to re-claim a credible lead, build the capacity to combat terror- states uncomfortable with the legacy of the United States must shift strategy ISM ! NEW ' SHOULD PLAY A CATALYTIC U.S.-backed strategies. and rhetoric away from a general ‘War role in designing and generating Against Terror’ and toward a specific support for a UN High-Commission
Clockwise from top left: UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon; MGI Advisory Group Member Jan Eliasson, Former Special Envoy to the UN Secretary-General on Darfur; MGI Advisory Group Members Javier Solana, High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, European Union and Igor Ivanov, Former Russian Foreign Minister; At MGI Advisory Group Meeting in Berlin, July 15–16, 2008: MGI Advisory Group Member Wolfgang Ischinger, Chairman, Munich Conference on Security Policy.
29 Internationalizing Crisis Response Focus on the Broader
TRACK 4 Middle East
lobal leaders must have confidence share an overriding interest in a stable Gthat a 21st century international Middle East. All will be worse off if security system will produce better crises in the Middle East escalate, if outcomes on the crises at the top of terrorism spreads further, if energy their national security agendas. prices swing out of control, if Iraq falls Otherwise, they will not invest the into permanent chaos, or if tensions necessary resources and political effort between the Muslim world and the to cultivate global partnerships and West fester or escalate. The complex- effective international institutions. ity of the challenge will require a truly The broader Middle East is the most international response. A peaceful, prosperous and unstable region in the world, and a more stable Middle East re- vortex of transnational threats and A unilateral U.S. approach has been quires both reforming national interlocking crises from Lebanon to inadequate in the face of the region’s governance, and resolving the Iran and Afghanistan. Unless crisis complexities. Meanwhile, international Arab Israeli conflict. Ending response in the region is international- tools such as UN peacekeeping and the Israeli occupation of Palestinian ized, regional stability, global energy IAEA’s inspections system have played supplies, and key security arrangements important roles in containing the re- and Arab territories and estab- such as the NPT are threatened. gion’s crises. However, even the most lishing a sovereign Palestinian ambitious agenda for international state, should enable sustain- The United States is neither solely institutions would recognize serious able Arab Israeli reconciliation. responsible for, nor solely capable of, limits in this hardest of hard cases. Reform based on an overall managing or resolving the several inter- Neither U.S. unilateral policy nor mul- locking crises in the broader Middle tilateralism as usual will suffice. The strategic vision articulated by East. Many states point to the U.S. role Middle East illustrates the need to com- Arabs themselves should move in stoking regional instability, civil war bine U.S. leadership, the engagement their societies towards more within Iraq, rising anti-Western senti- of the traditional and rising powers, inclusive systems based on ment, and volatility of international and effective institutions if crises are to respect for human rights and energy markets. However, each of the be overcome. the rule of law. But for peace ' COUNTRIES AND MUCH OF THE WORLD and reform to succeed, region- al efforts must be reinforced with strong and even-handed US involvement, international partnerships, and effective global institutions.
— Rima Khalaf Hunaidi Chief Executive Officer, Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Foundation; Former Assistant Secretary-General and Director, Regional Bureau for Arab States, UN Development Program; MGI Advisory Group Member
30 TRACK 4
OPENING ACTIONS: Internationalizing Crisis Response in the Broader Middle East
Convene a Friends Group and Plan for Improve International Strategy and engage Afghan leaders on corruption. The an International Peacebuilding Mission Increase Investments for Afghanistan UN and NATO Secretaries General could to Support the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process With implications for counter-terrorism efforts, together appoint an “eminent persons regional stability, and the viability of interna- group” staffed by national and international The Bush Administration’s decision in tional peacebuilding support efforts, the global security, governance, and development November 2007 to con vene a wider range of stakes in the success of Afghanistan’s recovery experts to recommend a shared Afghan- interested and influential parties in Annapolis, are enormous. For the Afghan people, this is a international framework to tackle corrup- helped breathe life into a moribund Middle moment to rebuild after almost thirty years of tion and narcotics, while addressing the East peace process. Keeping the process war. Failure would signal that the international need for alternative livelihoods. moving forward, against the constant community does not have the capacity to help a temptation to move away from diplomacy in fledgling democracy overcome a legacy of pov- Civilian capacity also needs to be radically the face of renewed violence, will be critical to erty and terror. It would recreate a haven for the increased. The dearth of capacity in Afghan stabilizing the region. Taliban and Al Qaeda, further erode stability in structures requires skilled international Pakistan, and generate a massive crisis in confi- civilians deployed municipally to train and All parties recognize that U.S. leader- dence in core international security instruments. support local Afghans. It means that gov- ship of the Middle East peace process is ernments will have to hire and deploy more necessary, but U.S. actions alone will not As of mid-2008, a stronger and more effec- civilians. The UN Special Representative suffice. The United States should establish tive international force and civilian presence of the Secretary General could convene a a “Friends Group” on the Israeli-Palestinian are needed in Afghanistan to break a cycle of national planning exercise in Kabul with key conflict that broadens the existing Quartet continued conflict and instability in the south Afghan stakeholders and donors. Donors to include key members of the G16, includ- and east. A first prerequisite will be a combina- will need to fund a civilian planning team ing Turkey. The Friends Group could help tion of adequate forces to give reconstruction comparable to what they would expect for bring Middle East peace closer by providing a chance, and a commitment to sustain those a military operation. encouragement, support, and occasional forces until local capacity is stronger. After mul- pressure to move forward the peace pro- tiple appeals, NATO countries are not likely to A Political Settlement and Civilian cess. Arab and Muslim majority members Surge for Iraq increase forces further. The U.S. may be able of a Friends Group could help to ensure to redeploy some troops from Iraq. Several Most nations want nothing to do with U.S. that Hamas accepts, or does not obstruct, European and Asian nations have participated policy in Iraq. They see it as an American the negotiations on an agreement. at low levels and are not likely to contribute quagmire. Yet the entire Middle East and more. Moreover, many NATO and non-NATO much of the world would live with the con- Forward movement on an Israeli-Palestinian contributors to ISAF—with notable excep- sequences of a meltdown in Iraq that would agreement will take place in the context of tions like the UK and Canada—have placed spark a wider Sunni-Shi’a struggle, entrench a drastically weakened governing capacity serious restrictions on the deployment of their Iraq as a failed state and recruiting ground on the Palestinian side and likely spoilers troops–damaging NATO’s credibility as a fight- for terrorism, exacerbate the displacement from both sides. The potential exists for a ing force. Nations will need to reconsider these of 4.5 million people, and further destabilize credible, international, transitional adminis- “caveats.” NATO should also pursue unprec- energy markets. The meeting point between trative and peacekeeping operation, man- edented cooperation with China, perhaps first American and international concern is re- dated (though not necessarily commanded) in the area of police training, to add depth both gional stability, and here there is scope for by the United Nations, to be deployed to in numbers and in political relationships in the cooperation. help implement a peace agreement. The sub-region. Success there could lead to wider Friends Group, perhaps under a joint U.S.- Chinese deployments in Afghanistan, which The decline in violence in Iraq in 2008 Turkish lead, could begin fostering opera- could potentially free up NATO troops to rede- creates a critical opportunity for politi- tional plans for such a presence. The group ploy to more insecure parts of the country. cal stability. A starting point is endorsing could help ensure the necessary political a “diplomatic surge,” undertaken through authorization from the United Nations, as The United Nations, with unequivocal back- cooperation between the United Nations well as the support of the League of Arab ing from the United States and the major and the United States and with backing States, and galvanize the necessary com- European and Asian donors, must also from the G16, to reach a political settlement mitments of troops and financial resources. continued...
31 TRACK 4
OPENING ACTIONS: Internationalizing Crisis Response in the Broader Middle East
in Iraq. President Bush made evident in signal that a settlement in Iraq is a matter his final State of the Union speech that the of international concern, this will create a United States will likely retain 130,000 to better climate for compromise. 150,000 troops in Iraq by the end of 2008. Remove the U.S. force presence and the Regional and International Diplomacy on Iran’s Nuclear Program The international community chances for a conflagration are high. Keep has simply been unable to forces there without a political settlement G16 states’ support to regional diplomacy and the chances for greater resentment on Iraq would have an additional benefit of address failed states effec- and backlash against the United States are engaging Iran, which could create a more tively. Afghanistan exempli- high. The emerging lesson for the United productive framework for negotiations over fies the lack of political will its nuclear program. Although it is evident States has been documented repeatedly in and sufficient capacity to that resolution of the current stand-off other conflicts: eventually there must be a deal with areas of conflict … political agreement to end internal conflicts between Iran and the Security Council and provide a foundation for sustainable will require increased U.S. engagement in There is little question that peace. negotiations, G16 states’ backing for a pro- building a more peaceful posal to Iran that includes civilian nuclear Afghanistan is crucial to The G16 and other key states could exert power, fuel guarantees, and reprocessing global security—the only of spent fuel would underscore that such their influence with Iraq’s neighbors to sup- doubt is whether the inter- port, or at least not disrupt, the search for an alternative is credible, not just a Western a negotiated settlement. The United States ploy to deny Iran an enrichment capacity. national community can would need to coordinate its bilateral surmount political obstacles military and diplomatic strategy to support If Iran should continue to prove recalcitrant and summon the resources a wider peace agenda. If, by exploring a in the face of UN Security Council and G16 to take on this daunting efforts, the exercise of having worked diplo- deal among Iraqis, the UN were to call for task. a peace conference such as the Bonn ne- matically through those mechanisms would help to ensure a broad-based effort to con- gotiations for Afghanistan, the G16 states — Ashraf Ghani would need to commit to provide tangible tain Iranian ambitions and the proliferation Chairman of the Institute for State support for a settlement. If the G16 states of nuclear weapons in the Middle East. Effectiveness; Former Minister of Finance for Afghanistan; MGI Advisory Group Member
A Continuing Agenda: 4HOSE ' MEMBERS THAT ARE PART OF Progress towards a regional security Internationalizing Crisis Response the Annapolis process could, with mechanism would depend on prior concerted U.S. engagement, support progress on the Israeli-Palestinian, Building Momentum Toward a the diplomacy required to move forward Iraqi and Iranian crises—but pre- Regional Architecture for the Middle a regional structure. Its mandate and negotiations towards that mechanism East. The Annapolis Process and structure could be based on the could constitute a significant induce- Friends Group convened for the Israeli- Conference on Security and Cooperation ment towards settlement on these Palestinian peace process could serve in Europe (CSCE), which focused on fronts, aiding crisis-specific diplomacy. as the foundation for a future regional three categories of issues relevant to To be effective, the effort would need security mechanism for the Middle East the broader Middle East: border stability, to be supported by the UN Security that would provide a venue to create economic cooperation, and human Council, which could also task the patterns of cooperation among states, rights and political reform. In addition Secretary General with supporting a reinforce borders, manage crises and to tackling contemporary crises, the regional mechanism, either through transnational threats and eventually organization could help address broader an envoy or a regional diplomatic of- promote regional norms on political tensions that have arisen between the fice. Economic incentives from the reform and economic development. West and the Muslim World.17 leading Gulf economies, Japan and
32 TRACK 4 the European Union would add to the to power in the short run. Conversely, ism and regional security. Even with prospect of success. American abuses of human rights at the U.S. military surge in Iraq, success Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo, along has depended on the cooperation of Improve Relations Between Islam with phrases such as Islamic terror- local leaders. In some cases simple and the West. Misunderstanding and ism, have created a perception that the vocabulary will make a difference— distrust between Muslims and non- United States is hostile to Islam and for example avoiding phrases such as Muslims have already created a divide sees Islam as a driver of terrorism. Islamic terrorism—but policy changes along religious and ethnic lines that are also needed, including actions MGI could dangerously split parts of the Consultations in the Middle East un- has highlighted: promoting peace in world that desperately need to cooper- derscored that there is a potential for the Middle East, demonstrating respect ate on issues ranging from economic a new U.S. President to build bridges. for international law, and avoiding dou- stability to counterterrorism. Yet a leg- Muslim-majority states increasingly see ble standards on democratic principles. acy of authoritarianism in the Middle that they have an interest in a rule- East, and the success of Islamist parties based international order. Western in competing with the state to pro- leaders understand they must cooper- vide social services, makes it likely that ate with the Muslim majority states to competitive politics will bring Islamists achieve their goals on counterterror-
Clockwise from top left: At MGI Advisory Group Meeting in Berlin, July 15–16, 2008: MGI Advisory Group Members Chester Crocker, Professor of Strategic Studies, Georgetown University, and Vincent Maphai, Chairman, BHP Billiton, South Africa; Top right: Francis Deng, UN Special Adviser for the Prevention of Genocide; Middle Right: MGI Advisory Group and European Policymaker meeting at Ditchley Park, February, 2008: from left, Jeff Gutman, Vice President and Head of Network, Operations Policy and Country Service, The World Bank; Brett House, Senior Macroeconomist, Earth Institute, Columbia University; MGI Advisory Group Member Igor Ivanov, Former Russian Foreign Minister; James Kariuki, Head of Policy Planning Staff, Foreign Commonwealth Office, United Kingdom; John McArthur, Deputy Director, UN Millennium Project, Earth Institute, Columbia University; Bottom: MGI Advisory Group Meeting in Berlin, July 15–16, 2008: MGI Advisory Group Member Sylvia Mathews Burwell, President, Global Development Program, The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Middle Left: MGI Consultations in Beijing, China: from left, Chu Shurong, China Foreign Affairs University; MGI Co-Director Carlos Pascual; MGI Advisory Group member Wu Jianmin, President, China Foreign Affairs University; MGI Co-Director Stephen Stedman.
33 Management: Sequencing and Targets of Opportunity
his agenda for action is sweeping the 2009 meeting toward the goal of ners and through effective international Tbut unavoidable. It will require ' FORMATION institutions. Progress on a wider agenda immediate and sustained attention, to revitalize the international security political momentum, and parallel )F THE ' IS NOT FORMALLY CREATED IN system and engage rising powers in co- action to achieve results across the the United States and other traditional operative arrangements must occur in diverse issues and pending crises powers should act as if the body exists and parallel. Success on this global agenda facing global powers. use informal groupings to gain compa- will not only deliver on today’s crises, it rable effects. That will put a strain on will prevent tomorrow’s disasters. The international community will look American diplomatic capacity, but it will first for signs that the United States pay dividends in making the U.S. diplo- The attached timeline represents the seeks genuine global partnerships. matic efforts more effective. global agenda for 2009 to 2012, the Thus, Track 1 must begin in earnest first term for the next U.S. President. immediately following the election of The international agenda will also These events present opportunities for the new American President. Restored impose a schedule of action on transna- global leaders to move toward a revital- American standing in the world is the tional threats. This includes the 2009 ized international order for the 21st foundation for successful revitalization Conference of the Parties to the UN century. The agenda the MGI Project of the international security system. Framework Convention on Climate has presented will continue much The rest of the world will not support Change and 2010 Nuclear Non- farther into the future. The process of U.S. leadership on a reform agenda if Proliferation Treaty review conference. building international capabilities to the United States does not commit to These events offer a venue to make manage transnational threats must be international cooperation. concrete progress on the climate change dynamic—just as we would never ex- and nuclear proliferation agendas. pect our national governments to stop 4HE 'S CONVENING POWER THE COL- Actions in the next two years will also improving their governance capacities. lective weight of its economies and determine whether the Doha round of Yet, we cannot wait to start. The longer diplomatic and military capacities, and the WTO or a successor arrangement the delay in new approaches and new its combined populations would create can be concluded. An agreement is cooperation against mounting threats, an unparalleled platform to catalyze needed to produce a framework for the harder the challenges will become and mobilize effective international international trade that brings poor and the more trust will erode. We must action: a steering mechanism to navi- countries into global supply chains, or chart a shared path forward now to gate the turbulence of diffuse power, else undermines the WTO’s credibility manage the threats and capitalize on transnational threats, and the changing as a rule-setting global institution. the opportunities of a changed world. distribution of power among key states. 4HE FORMATION OF A ' IN WOULD Finally, crises will continue. They will support progress on other aspects of remain at the top of domestic foreign this action agenda such as revitalizing policy priorities and therefore require other international institutions (Track immediate attention. Yet, powerful 2), combating transnational threats states such as the United States will be (Track 3), and internationalizing crisis much more likely to achieve a political response (Track 4). G8 leaders must settlement in Iraq, address the nuclear make a concerted diplomatic push with threat in Iran, and promote stability in 2009 host Italy to shape the agenda of Afghanistan, working with global part-
34 TIMELINE GLOBAL AGENDA 2009–2010
Inauguration
State of State of Midterm the Union the Union elections
President’s President’s TRACK 1 budget due budget due American Leadership
G8+ G8+ WB/IMF
Summit Summit Meeting WB/IMF Italy Canada Meeting United Nations UN General General Assembly Millennium Institutions
TRACK 2 Assembly International Development Summit + 10
Review of the UN Nuclear Non-
Global Counter- Proliferation Treaty Terrorism Strategy, Review Conference 64th session of the Conference of the NATO 60th General Assembly Parties 15 (COP15) NATO Summit Anniversary UN Framework TRACK 3 Summit Convention on 5 Year Review of the Shared Threats Shared Climate Change United Nations Peace Building Commission
Delayed Iranian Iraqi National Iraqi Provincial Presidential Elections Afghanistan East Elections Elections Parliamentary
TRACK 4 Afghanistan Elections Broader Middle Presidential Elections
Jan Mar May July Sept Nov Jan Mar May July Sept Nov 2009 2010
35 TIMELINE GLOBAL AGENDA 2011–2012 2012 Targets
s U.S. leadership restored on international cooperation s U.S. upholds commitments under State of 10 year State of G8+ international law the Union anniversary the Union Summit s Expanded U.S. civilian toolbox for of 9/11 U.S. cooperative diplomacy President’s President’s budget due budget due
s G16 to bridge effectiveness and legitimacy G8+ G8+ s Reformed representation and mandate Summit Summit WB/IMF of the IFIs France U.S. Meeting s Expanded and more effective UN Security UNGA Council UN General s Accountability reforms in major UN bodies s Strengthened regional organizations: Assembly WB/IMF Africa and Middle East Meeting
s New climate change agreement under Review Conference of UNFCCC auspices the Biological Weapons s Revitalized nuclear non-proliferation regime Convention (BWC) s New agreement on inclusive global trade NATO NATO s Intergovernmental Panel on Biotechnology Summit Summit s Increased international capacity for sustaining peace s UN High Commissioner for Counter Terrorism Capacity Building
s Friends Group and international peacebuilding effort for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process Proposed Iraqi time- s A stable and sustainable peace in Afghanistan table for withdrawal s A political settlement in Iraq of U.S. combat troops s Diplomatic resolution to the Iranian nuclear program s Plans underway for Middle East regional security mechanism
Jan Mar May July Sept Nov Jan Mar May July Sept Nov 2011 2012
36 TRACK 2 TRACK 1 Restrain UseoftheVeto asaPath Toward UNSecurityCouncilReform Create aGroupof16 challenges emerging powersandre-focusingmandatestoward21stcentury TRACK 2GOAL: Thelegitimacy andeffectivenessofkeyinternationalinstitutionsare enhancedbyincreasingrepresentationof Demonstrate RespectforaRules-BasedSystem Deliver ConsistentandStrongMessagesonInternationalCooperation TRACK 1GOAL: foundationforcredibleU.S. Americarestoresitsstandinginternationally—anecessary leadershipacrossthisactionagenda !S s -EMBERSHIP s #REATE s 53 s 53 s 0RESIDENTIAL s (IGH LEVEL s 53 s aspect of UNSC business—authorization oftheuseforce,aspect ofUNSCbusiness—authorization sanctionsorpeacekeepingoperations Turkey, orNigeria Egypt onglobalchallenges agreements forumtoforgepreliminary a pre-negotiating !L deliveredonU.S. securitysystem message international leadershiptobuilda21stcentury sustainable detaineepolicy 1AEDA A 0RESIDENT UPHOLDS SHIFTS CONlDENCE A NEW AND RHETORIC CONSULTATIONS SPEECHES 'ENEVA ' ' ITS CLOSES BUILDING AFlLIATES PLUS TO AWAY FOSTER #ONVENTIONS 'UANTANAMO THE IN CONDUCTED THE FROM MEASURE /UTREACH COOPERATION LEAD UP A GENERAL #ONVENTION AND 53 TO TO "RAZIL Opening Actions Opening Actions PROMOTE WORKS THE LEADS AMONG '7/4 ' #HINA ON WITH !GAINST AND GLOBAL 5.'! THE VOLUNTARY #ONGRESS MAJOR TOWARDS )NDIA DIALOGUE 4ORTURE AND AND 3OUTH VETO IN A ON STRATEGIC SPECIlC AND EMERGING REFORM A !FRICA
OTHER WAR INTERNATIONAL AT AND POWERS LAWS THE AGAINST -EXICO #OUNCIL OF WAR SERVE
CAPITALS PLUS ON AS THE )NDONESIA
MOST
SERIOUS Strengthen RegionalOrganizations Upgrade theU.S. Toolbox forCooperativeDiplomacy Expand theUNSecurityCouncil Reform RepresentationandMandateoftheInternationalFinancialInstitutions 53 s ' s 53 s ' s &IXED s 7" s )N s 53 s 53 s 0 s 4HE s EU/NATO cooperation for sixtoten-yearterms global imbalances SIGNIlCANT monopoly onchoosingheadsofthe WB andIMF priorities andincreasetheeffectivenessofforeignaiddelivery conflict-ridden states EXCHANGE AGREE ROLE 53 ADMINISTRATION 0RESIDENT CONTINUES 0RESIDENT SUPPORT SUPPORT DATE FOCUSED AND TO COUNTRIES SET EXPAND REGIONAL FOR THE %UROPE FOR COMMITS INVESTS CONCERTED A TO )-& WHEN YEAR ADDRESS WORKS CURRENT OFFER INCLUDING EXERCISES SECURITY IN TO LONG TERM !SIAN ENGAGEMENT A WITH DOUBLE CAPACITY BASE FURTHER INEQUALITY MECHANISM REGIONAL EMERGING #ONGRESS GREATER OF THE SEATS REDISTRIBUTION BUILDING Continuing Agenda Continuing Agenda SIZE WITHIN WITH TO SURVEILLANCE SECURITY ARE ECONOMIES TO OF FOR %5 RE WRITE PROGRAM REVIEWED THE SEATS EMERGING THE SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS FOREIGN OF -IDDLE 'ENERAL SHARES OVER THE )-& FOR FOR ECONOMIES ARRANGEMENTS &OREIGN SERVICE THE THE %AST POSSIBLE LEADS TO !SSEMBLY !5 EXCHANGE EMERGING ON WITHIN !SSISTANCE TRANSFORMATION INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE ELECTS INCLUDING TEN RATE ECONOMIES YEARS CHANGE !CT POLICIES
NEW TO NEGOTIATIONS PROMOTING MEMBERS INTO ELEVATE AND AND OF PERMANENT SYSTEMATICALLY CEDE FRAGILE DEVELOPMENT
TO THEIR AND REDRESS ONES
37 TRACK 4 TRACK 3 Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process:Continuethe Annapolis Process Climate Change(UNFCCC)auspices Negotiate Two-Track AgreementonClimateChangeUnderUNFrameworkConvention Improve International Strategy andIncreaseInvestmentsforAfghanistan International Strategy Improve Support foraPolitical Settlement andCivilianSurgeforIraq Sustain RegionalandInternationalDiplomacy onIran’s Nuclear Program Revitalize theNuclear Non-ProliferationRegime Sustain CommitmenttoGlobalTrade TRACK 4GOAL: InternationalizecrisisresponseinthebroaderMiddleEasttoaddressregionalconflict andtransnationalthreats TRACK 3GOAL: Utilizeenhancedinternationalcooperationandinstitutionstotacklekeyglobalthreats 53 s 4RACK s 5. s 3EEK s 0ARTIES s 5. s 4RACK s 5. s ' s ' s 2USSIA s !LL s .ON NUCLEAR s 53 s .UCLEAR s .EGOTIATIONS s $IRECTOR s 4HE s to implementafutureagreement toreachagreement exert leverage civilian capacity framework totacklecorruption price carbon, measures national andlegislate/coordinate impetus forapeaceagreement anddevelopmentpersonnel investments indiplomatic reprocessing of spent fuel in exchange for negotiations onitsnuclearreprocessing ofspent fuelinexchangefornegotiations program AND tozero weapons of climate changeonthedevelopingworld negotiations as a foundation forfutureefforts asafoundation negotiations focused ondevelopingcountries STATES AND 3PECIAL AND VERIlCATION PRINCIPLE PROMOTES 0RESIDENT BACKING SUPPORT FURTHER AND AND 53 .!4/ IS IS STATES OF WORK INVESTMENT EMISSIONS THE 2EPRESENTATIVE THE &RIENDS COOPERATE POLITICAL STATES TROOP LED FOR 74/ 3ECRETARIES BEGINS A 74/ RE PLEDGE TOWARD 53 PROVISIONS h&RIENDS A THROUGH PROPOSAL COMMITMENTS TRADING ENDORSE 'ROUP STAND PUBLISHES ABATEMENT SETTLEMENT EFFORTS INVESTMENT AN ON A COMMITMENT 'ROUPv 'ENERAL INTERNATIONAL DOWN A PLAN PARTNERSSTARTING TO ' OF TO DIPLOMATIC MAKING TOWARD THE THE )RAN THE FOR CLIMATE THE BY MAJOR THAT 3TRATEGIC TO 3ECRETARY IN APPOINT THAT A EXERTING SECURE ALERT THE CREDIBLE 53 TECHNOLOGY OUT BROADENS Opening Actions Opening Actions TO SURGE INCLUDES FUEL EMITTERS GROUP !DDITIONAL DISARMAMENT RATIlCATION STATUS OF AN !RMS VOLATILE BANK 'ENERAL INmUENCE FOR EMINENT INTERNATIONAL WITH UNDER THE OF CIVILIAN AGREE TRADE 2EDUCTION ADAPTATION )RAQ UNDER NUCLEAR 0ROTOCOL ' REGIONS 1UARTET CONVENES OF 5.&### TO ON AGREEMENTS PERSONS ON #4"4 TRADE INITIATE THE NUCLEAR REACH )RAQS GLOBAL FORCES PEACEKEEPING 4REATY )NTERNATIONAL MANDATORY TO AND MINISTERSCONCLUDE AUSPICES INCLUDE A A GROUP A NEIGHBORS POWER POLITICAL NATIONAL JOINT RAINFORESTS 34!24 PLEDGE FROM TO STUDY KEY AND FUEL INITIATE THE SETTLEMENT !TOMIC PLANNING NO lRST OPERATION AND ' NEGOTIATE GUARANTEES OF LATEST TO PROVIDING REDUCING MANAGE MEMBERS AN %NERGY EMISSIONS USE EXERCISE ROUND !FGHAN INTERNATIONAL A TO INCLUDING TRADE ARMS EXTEND BE THE !GENCY THEIR AND POLITICAL OF THAT DEPLOYED REDUCTIONS ROUND
TO $OHA TARGETS IMPACTS
NUCLEAR BUILD CAN INSPECTION
Improve Relations BetweenIslamandtheWestImprove Build MomentumToward aRegionalArchitecturefortheMiddleEast Create aCenterofExcellenceforEconomicProsperity Establish aUNHighCommissionerforCounter-Terrorism CapacityBuilding Increase InternationalInvestmentsinConflictManagement Strengthen ResponsetoBiologicalThreats 53 s 7EST s 2EGIONAL s -IDDLE s &RIENDS s #ENTER s 5. s ' s ' s ' s -EMBER s $EVELOP s )NITIATE s in theMuslimworld as Islamicterrorism economic incentivesfromGulfcountries, Japan, andtheEuropeanUnion and development threats, crisis andtransnational manage andeventuallypromoteregionalnormsonpolitical reform security mechanismfortheMiddleEast how overall poverty rates changeacrosscountries/regions. overallpovertyrates how Center’s theannualmeet at workisdebated with topresearchinstitutionsglobally 0ROSPERITY Terrorism effortstobuildcounter-terrorism Buildingtofocusinternational Capacity normsandcapacity operations coordinate RAPID specialists This shouldbesupplementedby20,000policeandrule-of-law UN andregionalorganizations BENElTS (2005) Health Regulations INGS 3ECRETARY FOCUSES PLAYS PLUS DESIGNATE OF FOCUSES START UP CONSOLIDATES THE %AST AN 'ROUP OF AN STATES ORGANIZATION KEY EFFORT A WITH BIOTECHNOLOGY )-& INTERGOVERNMENTAL REGIONAL CATALYTIC ON STATES 'ENERAL ON AT CONVENED A AND MEMBERS INCREASE RESPECT TO THE PART MESSAGES BUILD 7" WITH EXISTING 5. MECHANISM ROLE OF AND DEVELOPMENT THEIR FOR &INDING LOCAL INVESTMENTS FOR 5. AN APPOINTED IN 0RESIDENT INTERNATIONAL THAT )SRAELI 0ALESTINIAN DESIGNING INTERESTFUNDS 0EACEBUILDING PERFORMANCE ARMED PUBLIC PANEL FORM BUILD PROVIDES IS BY FORCES Continuing Agenda Continuing Agenda OF HEALTH ON IN THE BRIDGES SUPPORTED AND THE HEADS BIOTECHNOLOGY 5. LAW BASIS REPORTS A 7ORLD COMMIT GENERATING #OMMISSION FOR CAPACITY CAPACITIES VENUE AND OF RATHER INTERNATIONAL CONmICT OF RELEVANT BY "ANK AVOIDING ON THE TO TWO A TO THAN -$'S ENCOURAGE 5. -ILLENNIUM SUPPORT FOR TO SERVES CREATE ACHIEVE BILLION STRENGTHENED FORGE ENVOY INTERNATIONAL ALIENATE MEDIATION DOUBLE AND PEACEKEEPING AS A IN FOR SCIENTIlC FULL #ENTER OR lNANCING FUNDING COOPERATION THE
A STANDARDS REGIONAL INCLUDING IMPLEMENTATION NEW AND FOUNDATION TO INSTITUTIONS OF CONSENSUS DEVELOP FOR PREVENTIVE (IGH %XCELLENCE INTO WITH DIPLOMATIC PEACEBUILDING AVOIDING ON REINFORCE #OMMISSION AND A A DEMOCRATIC FOR POVERTY STRATEGIC GOAL
NETWORKS A OF ON DIPLOMACY FOR FUTURE PHRASES THE OF OFlCE THE BORDERS CLOCK %CONOMIC )NTERNATIONAL PLANS TO DANGERS FOR PRINCIPLES REGIONAL AND CREATED SUPPORT TO SUCH #OUNTER AT 3UMMITS
RESERVES AND SHOW
THE
AND
- 38 Appendix: Acronym List
ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations ODA Official Development Assistance AU African Union OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and CTBT Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Development GWOT Global War on Terror P5 Permanent Five of the United Nations Security Council EU European Union RDB Regional Development Bank FDI Foreign Direct Investment START Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty FAO Food and Agriculture Organization, United Nations UN United Nations G8 Group of Eight: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UNDESA The United Nations Department of Economic and Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States Social Affairs GEF Global Environment Facility UNDP United Nations Development Program IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency UNDPKO United Nations Department for Peacekeeping Operations ICC International Criminal Court UNEP United Nations Environment Program IFC International Finance Corporation UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on IFI International Financial Institution Climate Change IMF International Monetary Fund UNGA United Nations General Assembly IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees MDB Multilateral Development Bank UNSC United Nations Security Council MDG Millennium Development Goal UNSG United Nations Secretary General NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization US DOS United States Department of State NGO Non-Governmental Organization US DOE United States Department of Energy NPT Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty USAID United States Agency for International Development NSC U.S. National Security Council WB World Bank, or World Bank Group (WBG) Outreach 5 Five developing nations invited by the G8 WFP World Food Program, United Nations participate in selected portions of the G8 meetings: Brazil, China, India, Mexico South Africa. Also known as G8+5. WHO World Health Organization OCHA Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, WTO World Trade Organization United Nations
39 Appendix: End Notes
1. David Dollar, “Poverty, Inequality 7. Steven Kosiak, “FY 2009 Request 13. This would then cover the UN’s and Social Disparities During China’s Would Bring DoD Budget to Record peacekeeping operations, field-based Economic Reform,” World Bank Policy (Or Near-Record) Levels,” Center for political missions, humanitarian coordi- Research Working Paper No. 4253, Strategic and Budgetary Assessments nation operations—each managed from World Bank, June 2007. Update, February 4, 2008. http:// the Secretariat—and the work of the www.csbaonline.org/4Publications/ World Food Program, the UN 2. Francis Deng, Sadikiel Kimaro, PubLibrary/U.20080204.FY_2009_ Development Program, the UN Terrence Lyons, Donald Rothchild, Request/U.20080204.FY_2009_Request. Children’s Fund, the UN High and I. William Zartman, Sovereignty pdf. Commissioner for Refugees, the UN as Responsibility (The Brookings Relief and Works Agency, the UN Food )NSTITUTION 7ASHINGTON $# 8. “Total Net ODA in 2007, USD million, and Agricultural Organization, and the Deng, an African statesman, first enun- preliminary estimates”, Organization UN Environment Program— ciated the concept of sovereignty as for Economic Cooperation and collectively, responsible for the majority responsibility in 1993 in the context of Development, http://www.oecd.org/ of the UN’s field-oriented spending. protection of civilians during humani- dataoecd/27/34/40381949.xls. tarian emergency and in fragile and 14. The Princeton Project on National 9. "ROOKINGSn#3)3 4ASKFORCE Transforming conflict-ridden states. Security, “Forging a World of Liberty Foreign Assistance for the 21st Century, 5NDER THE ,AW v 3EPTEMBER 3. “New Consensus Emerging on Value Executive Recommendations, p. 4, (June of Forging Global Partnerships to 15. Michael O’Hanlon, “Resurrecting Enhance Security, Reduce Foreign Oil the Test Ban Treaty,” Survival 50 (1), 10. The Modernizing Foreign Assistance Dependence, Address Climate Change” &EBRUARYn-ARCH P n Network, New Day, New Way: U.S. United Nations Foundation and Better Foreign Assistance for the 21st Century, The idea of a poverty clock was first World Campaign, Public Concern Poll June 1, 2008; Craig Cohen and Noam put forward by our colleague Homi 2008, http://www.betterworldcampaign. Unger, “Surveying the Civilian Reform Kharas, Senior Fellow in the Global org/news-room/press-releases/us-re- Landscape,” The Stanley Foundation Development Program at the Brookings ject-go-it-alone.html Project Brief, 2008. Institution. 4. Pew Research Center Global Attitudes 11. Wayne M. Morrison and Michael 17. Here our proposals echo similar calls Poll 2008 “More See America’s Loss F. Martin, “How Large is China’s made by the Princeton Project on of Global Respect as Major Problem” Economy? Does it Matter?” CRS Report National Security and a forthcoming http://www.pewtrusts.org/our_work_ for Congress, February 13 (2008). report by the Brookings/Council on detail.aspx?id=298 Foreign Relations joint Task Force on 12. United Nations Department of 5. One option that has been proposed the Middle East (November 2008). Peacekeeping Operations, “Financing by legal experts is a National Security The Princeton Project on National of United Nations Peacekeeping Court whose architecture incorporates Security, ibid. Operations”, UN documents a fair and robust due process system !# AND !# *ULY thereby garnering broader legitimacy 2007) http://www.un.org/Depts/dpko/ than our current patchwork system. dpko/contributors/financing.html; Benjamin Wittes, Law and the Long War World Food Programme: “Resource, (The Penguin Press, New York, 2008), Financial and Budgetary Matters”, n (February 2008), http://www.wfp.org/ Budget of the United States eb/docs/2008/wfp147420~1.pdf Government, Fiscal Year 2009 http:// www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/ fy2009/
40 MANAGING GLOBAL INSECURITY (MGI) PARTNER INSTITUTIONS
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