CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION NEGOTIATIONS, WITH AN EMPHASIS ON OPTIONS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AN ENVIRONMENT & ENERGY GROUP PUBLICATION HARALD WINKLER ENERGY RESEARCH CENTRE UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN ! JULY 2008 2 CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION NEGOTIATIONS, WITH AN EMPHASIS ON OPTIONS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Capacity development for policy makers: addressing climate change in key sectors The UNDP “Capacity development for policy makers” project seeks to strengthen the national capacity of developing countries to develop policy options for addressing climate change across different sectors and economic activities, which could serve as inputs to negotiating positions under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The project will run in parallel with the “Bali Action Plan” process – the UNFCCC negotiations on long-term cooperative action on climate change set to conclude in December 2009 in Copenhagen at the fifteenth Conference of the Parties. This paper is one of a series produced for the project that provides in-depth information on the four thematic building blocks of the Bali Action Plan – mitigation, adaptation, technology and finance – as well as on land-use, land-use change and forestry.T he project materials also include executive summaries for policymakers, background briefing documents and workshop presentations.T hese materials will be used for national awareness-raising workshops in the participating countries. Disclaimer The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the United Nations, including UNDP, or their Member States. Acknowledgements UNDP and the author gratefully acknowledge the constructive suggestions made for this paper by the UNFCCC secretariat and UNDP staff members, as well as Hernan Carlino, Erik Haites, Dennis Tirpak, Chad Carpenter, Susanne Olbrisch and Naira Aslanyan. UNDP also acknowledges the generous support from the United Nations Foundation and the governments of Norway and Finland towards the project, “Capacity Development for Policy Makers”, which allowed preparation of this document. CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION NEGOTIATIONS, WITH AN EMPHASIS ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 3 CONTENTS Acronyms 4 Units and Measures 5 1 Introduction 7 1.1 Background to the climate negotiations 7 1.2 The Bali Action Plan 8 2 Scientific basis for mitigation and development 9 3 Background concepts in proposals for mitigation 11 4 Overview of options for mitigation in developing countries 18 4.1 Different approaches 18 4.2 More detailed description of selected approaches 22 4.2.1 Kyoto-style fixed targets 22 4.2.2 Per capita 23 4.2.3 Brazilian Proposal 24 4.2.4 Emissions intensity 25 4.2.5 SD-PAMs: Sustainable development policies and measures 26 4.2.6 Evolution of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) 27 4.2.7 Global Triptych 28 4.2.8 Sectoral Approaches 29 4.2.9 Conclusions 30 5 Measurable, reportable and verifable 31 5.1 MRV mitigation action by developing countries 31 5.1.1 Measurable 31 5.1.2 Reportable 32 5.1.3 Verifiable 5.2 MRV for means of implementation 34 5.2.1 Making finance MRV 34 5.2.2 MRV Technology 36 5.3 MRV for developed countries 36 6 Conclusions 37 Bibliography 38 Further reading 38 References 38 4 CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION NEGOTIATIONS, WITH AN EMPHASIS ON OPTIONS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Annexes 43 Annex I. COP decisions related to mitigation 43 Annex II. Summary of Options for Addressing Mitigation Actions in a Future Regime 44 Annex III. Overview of recent proposals in IPCC AR 4 47 Annex IV. Glossary 52 Figures Figure 1: Annual emissions by region, per capita 13 Figure 2: Annual emissions by region, per $ Gross domestic product (GDP) 13 Tables Table 1: Ranges of emission reductions required for various stabilisation levels 10 Table 2: Possible Indicators for responsibility, capability and potential to mitigate in selected developing countries emissions by various measures 16 Table 3: Emissions from developing regions by various measures 17 Table 4: Emissions from developing regions by the same measures, excluding certain countries 18 Table 5: Summary of approaches/schools of thought 21 Table 6: Illustrative options for raising additional revenue for addressing climate change 35 CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION NEGOTIATIONS, WITH AN EMPHASIS ON OPTIONS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 5 Acronyms PPP Purchasing power parity Annex I Annex to the Convention listing industrialised QELROs Quantified emission limitation and reduction and transitioning countries objectives, established under the Kyoto Annex II Annex to the Convention, listing mostly Protocol OECD countries, with additional commit- REDD Reducing emissions from deforestation in ments to assist developing countries with developing countries funding and technology transfer RSA Republic South Africa AR4 Fourth Assessment Report (of the IPCC, see SBI Subsidiary Bodies on Implementation below) SBSTA Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technologi- AWG-KP Ad hoc Working Group on further commit- cal Advice ments of Annex I Parties under the Kyoto SD-PAMs Sustainable development policies and measures Protocol SO2 Sulphur dioxide AWG-LCA Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term SRES Special Report on Emission Scenarios (of the Cooperative Action under the Convention IPCC) BASIC proj ect Linking national and international climate UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on policy: capacity building for challenges Climate Change (the Convention) ahead for Brazil, China, India and South WG I Working Group I (of the IPCC, see above), Africa assesses the literature on the physical science CCAP Center for Clean Air Policy basis of climate change CDM Clean Development Mechanism WG II Working Group II (of the IPCC, see above), CFL Compact fluorescent light assesses the literature on the impacts, vulner- CH4 Methane ability and adaptation to climate change CO2 Carbon dioxide WG III Working Group III (of the IPCC, see above), COP Conference of the Parties (to the UNFCCC) assesses the literature on the mitigation of CMP Conference of the Parties serving as the climate change, i.e. reducing GHG emissions meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol WRI World Resources Institute DEAT Department of Environmental Affairs & Tourism, SA Units and Measures DEFRA Department of Food and Rural Affairs, UK EU European Union CO2-eq CO2-eqivalent FYR Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia GJ Gigajoules: 109 Joules, a billion Joules G77 Group of 77, mostly Latin American, African GW Gigawatts: 109 Watts, a billion Watts and South Asian countries J Joule, standard international unit of energy, GDP Gross domestic product defined as a Newton-meter, or approx. the GEREF Global Efficiency and Renewable Energy Fund energy required to lift a small apple one meter (established by the EU) straight up GHG Greenhouse gas kW Kilowatts (power measurement) HDI Human Development Index Mt Megatons, 106 tons, a million tons IEA International Energy Agency MtCO2 Megatons of carbon dioxide, a million tons IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change CO2 LULUCF Land use, land use change and forestry MW Megawatt: 106 Watts, a million Watts MRV Measurable, reportable and verifiable PJ Petajoules: 1015 Joules N2O Nitrous oxide ppmv parts per million by volume NAI Parties Non-Annex I Parties, mostly developing tC tons of carbon countries tCO2 tons of CO2 PAMs Policies and measures 6 CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION NEGOTIATIONS, WITH AN EMPHASIS ON OPTIONS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 1 INTRODUCTION Climate change is one of the greatest threats to our The Convention sets a framework for future action, it planet and its people. Reducing emissions of greenhouse outlines the ‘rules of the game’ to enable to the interna- gases (GHG) is called mitigation. Responding to the tional community to agree on future action as the science impacts of climate change is called adaptation. A certain improves or new tools and technologies become available. amount of adaptation will be necessary, no matter what we New information indeed became available through the do. But, there will come a point where it will not be Second Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental possible to adapt our way out of the problem. Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1995, informing the Mitigation has been at the heart of the climate negotia- negotiation of the Berlin Mandate which in turn led to the tions from the outset. As the next round of negotiations Kyoto Protocol. focuses on what developing countries might do on In Kyoto in 1997,2 based on the principle of equity and mitigation, the topic remains highly relevant. common but differentiated responsibilities and respective The remainder of this introduction briefly sketches the capabilities, it was agreed that Annex I Parties would take history of the climate negotiations, ending with the most the leaders through quantified emission limitation and recent agreements in Bali. The paper then turns to the reduction objectives (QELROs) (UNFCCC 1997). For scientific basis of the work on mitigation. Section 3 Annex I Parties, policies and measures (PAMs) are a means introduces background concepts for proposals on mitiga- to achieve QELROs3. Progress is to be reported by means tion, leading into the next section, which identifies not of annual inventories and national communications4. only different schools of thought but a number of specific In Kyoto, non-Annex I (NAI) Parties continued with proposals as well. The “hot” topic of how mitigation qualitative mitigation measures5, without quantifying the actions can be made ‘measurable, reportable and verifiable’ outcome. Parties considered this appropriate, given that (MRV) is examined in section 5, before concluding with development would imply increasing emissions. There is some questions for discussion. Information on the no mandatory requirement for particular PAMs, so that terminology used in this paper can be obtained from the these could in future be a possible form of commitment in glossary in Annex 4. themselves. Reporting for NAI Parties includes national inventories, as well as “a general description of steps taken 1.1 Background to the climate negotiations or envisaged”6 and in practice includes a section on mitigation programmes.