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48436 JPM 2012.Pdf This document is being provided for the exclusive use of JOHN CULHANE at PENNANT MANAGEMENT, INC. North America Equity Research 9 December 2011 U.S. Year Ahead 2012 A Year of Gradual Healing PortfolioStrategy Thomas J Lee, CFA AC (1-212) 622-6505 [email protected] Director of U.S. Equity Research Noelle V. Grainger (1-212) 622-6504 [email protected] J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Bloomberg JPUS2012 <INDEX> <GO> Bloomberg subscribers can use the ticker JPUS2012 to access tracking information on a basket created by the J.P. Morgan Delta One desk to leverage the theme discussed in this report. Over time, the performance of JPUS2012 could diverge from returns quoted in this report, because of differences in methodology. J.P. Morgan Research does not provide research coverage of this basket and investors should not expect continuous analysis or additional reports relating to it. For information on JPUS2012, please contact your J.P. Morgan salesperson or the Delta One Desk. See page 152 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. In the United States, this information is available only to persons who have received the proper option risk disclosure documents. Please contact your J.P. Morgan representative or visit http://www.optionsclearing.com/publications/risks/riskstoc.pdf. This document is being provided for the exclusive use of JOHN CULHANE at PENNANT MANAGEMENT, INC. North America Equity Research US Year Ahead 2012 December 2011 Table of Contents Macro Consumer (Cont’d) Portfolio Strategy ............................................................................. 5 Lodging.......................................................................................... 95 Economics..................................................................................... 50 Wyndham Worldwide (WYN) Equity Strategy – Small Cap........................................................... 52 Restaurants ................................................................................... 96 Brinker International (EAT) Equity Technical Strategy............................................................... 55 Retailing – Broadlines, Apparel & Footwear .................................... 97 Equity Quantitative Strategy ........................................................... 63 Macy’s (M) Accounting & Valuation.................................................................. 67 Retailing – Hardlines/Discounters ................................................... 98 Equity Derivatives .......................................................................... 70 Costco (COST) Delta One Strategy ........................................................................ 74 Retailing – Specialty....................................................................... 99 Capital Goods/Industrials Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. (ULTA) Aerospace & Defense .................................................................... 81 Tobacco....................................................................................... 100 Boeing Company (BA) Reynolds American (RAI) Airfreight & Surface Transportation................................................. 82 Energy Union Pacific (UNP) Electric Utilities & Independent Power Producers .......................... 101 Electrical Equipment & Multi-Industry.............................................. 83 NRG Energy (NRG) SPX Corp (SPW) Energy MLPs ............................................................................... 102 Engineering & Construction............................................................ 84 Buckeye Partners (BPL) Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) North American Integrated Oils & Major Producers........................ 103 Environmental Services.................................................................. 85 Nexen (NXY) Clean Harbors (CLH) Oil & Gas Exploration & Production............................................... 104 Waste Connections (WCN) Denbury Resources (DNR) Machinery...................................................................................... 86 Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) Deere & Co. (DE) Oilfield Services & Equipment....................................................... 105 Consumer Halliburton (HAL) Airlines .......................................................................................... 87 Financials United Continental Holdings (UAL) Asset Managers, Brokers, and Exchanges.................................... 107 Autos & Auto Parts......................................................................... 88 Invesco Ltd. (IVZ) Visteon (VC) Franklin Resources (BEN) – Avoid Beverages ..................................................................................... 89 Banks – Large Cap....................................................................... 108 PepsiCo (PEP) Citigroup (C) Food Manufacturing....................................................................... 90 Banks – Mid- and Small Cap ........................................................ 109 J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM) First Horizon (FHN) Food Retail.................................................................................... 91 Insurance – Life ........................................................................... 110 The Fresh Market (TFM) Prudential Financial (PRU) Gaming.......................................................................................... 92 Insurance – Non-Life.................................................................... 111 Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Allstate Corp. (ALL) Homebuilding & Building Products.................................................. 93 REITs/Real Estate Services.......................................................... 112 Lennar (LEN) Public Storage (PSA) Owens Corning (OC) Specialty & Consumer Finance..................................................... 113 Household & Personal Care Products............................................. 94 American Express (AXP) Procter & Gamble (PG) 2 This document is being provided for the exclusive use of JOHN CULHANE at PENNANT MANAGEMENT, INC. North America Equity Research US Year Ahead 2012 December 2011 Health Care Technology Biotechnology ...............................................................................115 Alternative Energy – LED ............................................................. 135 Celgene (CELG) Cree (CREE) SMid Biotechnology ......................................................................116 Alternative Energy – Solar PV....................................................... 136 Onyx Pharmaceuticals (ONXX) First Solar (FSLR) – Avoid Healthcare Facilities......................................................................117 Applied & Emerging Technologies ................................................ 137 HCA Inc. (HCA) Zipcar (ZIP) Healthcare Information Technology ...............................................118 Business & Education Services .................................................... 138 Accretive Health (AH) Robert Half International (RHI) Healthcare Technology & Distribution............................................119 Communications Equipment & Data Networking............................ 139 CVS Caremark (CVS) Riverbed (RVBD) Life Sciences Tools & Diagnostics.................................................120 Computer Services & IT Consulting .............................................. 140 Agilent (A) MasterCard (MA) Managed Care ..............................................................................121 IT Hardware................................................................................. 141 UnitedHealth (UNH) Apple (AAPL) Medical Supplies & Devices ..........................................................122 Semiconductor Capital Equipment................................................ 142 St. Jude Medical (STJ) Lam Research (LRCX) Pharmaceuticals – Major...............................................................123 Semiconductors ........................................................................... 143 Pfizer (PFE) Texas Instruments (TXN) Pharmaceuticals – Specialty..........................................................124 SMid Semiconductors................................................................... 144 Mylan (MYL) Broadcom (BRCM) Materials Software ...................................................................................... 145 Citrix Systems (CTXS) – Avoid Chemicals – Specialty, Commodity & Agricultural...........................125 Red Hat (RHT) – Avoid DuPont (DD) Software Technology.................................................................... 146 Coal..............................................................................................126 Equinix (EQIX) Consol Energy (CNX) Technology Supply Chain............................................................. 147 Gold & Precious Metals.................................................................127 Jabil Circuit (JBL) Goldcorp Inc. (GG) Metals & Mining............................................................................128 Disclosures.................................................................................
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