CAMEROON Food Security Outlook Juin 2021 à Janvier 2022 The main harvests should improve food security conditions although production outlooks remain unfavorable in the Northwest and Southwest

KEY MESSAGES • Beginning in July, the dry harvest is likely to improve the food security Current food security, June 2021 conditions of poor households in the Northwest and Southwest. Despite expected below-average production, households will consume their own yields. A seasonal increase in crop sales will also improve incomes. Food insecurity is expected to lessen to Stressed (IPC Phase 2), except in departments most affected by conflict, where production and access to food assistance remain very limited. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity will likely begin in October due to premature food stock depletion, which will in turn increase staple product prices.

• COVID-19 prevention measures will continue to restrict daily income opportunities for poor households in urban areas. Staple product prices will remain above average due to COVID-19-related supply disruptions. COVID-19 vaccination campaigns are ongoing throughout the country, but the impact of the pandemic is likely to persist in 2021 and 2022. Source: FEWS NET • In departments most affected by insurgent activities in the Far North, FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the below-average livestock numbers are reducing livestock sales. In consensus of national food security partners. addition, below-average localized production in 2020/21 is keeping food staples at above-average prices. Households in Mayo-Sava, Mayo-Tsanaga, and Logone-et-Chari are borrowing more, limiting the size and frequency of meals, buying cheaper food replacements, and selling charcoal and firewood to meet their dietary needs. They will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity until August.

SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR, FAR NORTH

Source: FEWS NET

FEWS NET FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not [email protected] necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International www.fews.net/west-africa/cameroon Development or the United States government.

CAMEROON Food Security Outlook Juin 2021 à Janvier 2022

NATIONAL OVERVIEW Current situation Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: Newly reported COVID-19 cases have Projected food security outcomes, June to declined by an average of 20 percent since the first week of May 2021. September 2021 Vaccination campaigns are ongoing throughout the country. As of June 2021, 97,245 vaccine doses have been administered and 18,769 people have been fully vaccinated, representing less than 0.1 percent of the total population. Other measures to reduce the spread of the virus, such as social distancing, mask-wearing, restricted gatherings and movements, and mandatory screening at all entry points, remain in place. In urban centers, economic activities related to tourism – including hotels and restaurants and informal activities such as small-scale trading – continue to operate at below-average levels. On June 20, Cameroon reopened its border with Chad via the Ngueli bridge given the downward trend of positive COVID-19 cases in both countries.

Agricultural production: The decennial warnings provided by the National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) in March 2021 show that the start of the rains in mid-March promoted the timely launch of sowing activities during the main season in southern Cameroon. Meanwhile, seasonal rainfall accumulation allowed normal crop development. The main season’s Source: FEWS NET production is expected to be average, in part because of an increase in input Projected food security outcomes, October 2021 to support from the government and partners aimed at mitigating COVID-19’s January 2022 impact on production. Throughout this season, agricultural engagements were hindered partially due to reduced mobility and higher transport costs caused by COVID-19 as well as insecurity in the Northwest, the Southwest, and the Far North. The prices of agricultural inputs, such as improved seeds, fertilizer, pesticides, and herbicides, remain 10 to 15 percent higher than they were before COVID-19. In most rural areas, chemical fertilizers are 10 to 12 more expensive than they were during the same period in 2019. Prices are even higher in areas affected by ongoing conflict and insecurity.

Livestock production: The ongoing rainy season is stimulating the growth of pastures and the replenishment of water sources, thus improving pastoral resources. Livestock migration from the south to the north continues. The current destinations are the Diamaré plain (Mindif, , Petté) and the Logone floodplains. COVID-19 and border closures caused by security issues are hindering transnational livestock migration from Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR) to Cameroon and vice versa as well as transit movements from Chad to the CAR via Source: FEWS NET Cameroon. FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. Markets: In major markets, the supply of staple foods is low for the season. Key crops are expected to replenish them beginning in July. Increased transport costs and road blockages due to insecurity and COVID-19 restrictions continue to disrupt the internal flow of crops from production basins to urban markets. In the Far North, persistent insecurity has caused approximately 64 percent of staple food and livestock markets to see up to a 50 percent reduction in supply and in the number of traders compared to what is typical for this time of year. In the Northwest and Southwest, households’ market access to buy and sell remains below average due to frequent lockdowns and a reduced number of market days. Throughout the country, household dependence on market purchases is high for the season. It is also increasing in the northern regions, where the lean season is underway. The price of imported rice has remained 30 percent above average after a spike in May 2020 due to COVID-19-related supply disruptions. In the Northwest and Southwest, supply is below average due to last season’s below-average production, which resulted in more rapid stock depletion. As a result, most staple products continue to

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CAMEROON Food Security Outlook Juin 2021 à Janvier 2022 sell at prices above the pre-conflict period average. In the Far North, seasonal cereal prices are slightly to moderately higher than during the same period over the last three years. This is due to growing demand from northeast and from the CAR as well as to an increase in informal flows despite border closures.

Cross-border trade: Insecurity and COVID-19 have led to official border closings. Despite this, informal cross-border trade flows continue, although at below-average levels. The smuggling of cereals and other staple foods through border towns in the Far North to Nigeria, where demand is high, is increasing. This has led to increased prices in Cameroon. Increased flows were also observed along the Doula-Bangui corridor following the reopening of the Cameroon-CAR border in early 2021. However, persistent insecurity and threats from rebel groups are keeping flows at a below-average level. Herd arrivals from Chad and Sudan have declined by 70 percent, maintaining a below-average flow of livestock to destination markets in Yaoundé, Douala, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, and the CAR.

Nutritional situation: Preliminary results from the latest Standardized Monitoring and Assessment of Relief and Transition (SMART) – Standardized Expanded Nutrition Survey (SENS) nutritional survey conducted by the Cameroonian government, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), and UNICEF from February 16 to March 14, 2021 showed that the prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) among Central African child refugees (6 to 59 months) living both in and outside of camps in the East and Adamawa regions has been increasing since 2016. It is currently above the critical threshold of 10 percent. Meanwhile, the Far North has recorded a moderately high GAM prevalence (5.9 percent). The current nutritional situation in this region remains precarious. It is exacerbated by the ongoing lean season and a lack of hygiene/sanitation and access to drinking water during the current rainy season. In the Northwest and Southwest, acute malnutrition among poor households continues due to the combined effects of declining production and above-average staple food prices caused by ongoing conflicts and population displacements.

Conflict and insecurity: The ongoing conflict in the Northwest and Southwest (NWSW) remains the main driver behind acute food insecurity in these regions. The COVID-19 pandemic is further exacerbating its impact on poor households. Compared to the same period in 2020, the conflict has seen a decline in the number of associated deaths during the first four months of 2021, despite a rise in the number of attacks against civilians. Anglophone militant separatists have increased their use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in recent years, mainly targeting government security forces, perceived national political opponents, and those disobeying lockdowns. Moreover, in the Far North, Jama’atu Ahlis-Sunnah Lidda’Awati Wal-Jihad (Boko Haram) and the Islamic State West African Province (ISWAP) continue to frequently attack, kill, loot from, kidnap, and displace civilians. This is especially prevalent in the border towns of Mayo-Sava, Mayo-Tsanaga, and Logone-et-Chari. Since March 2021, the security situation in the CAR has remained relatively unchanged. An additional 156 Central African refugees were voluntarily repatriated from Cameroon to the CAR villages of Baoro and Berbérati.

Humanitarian assistance: More than 25 organizations (international, local, and United Nations agencies) actively supply food assistance to host communities, refugees, and displaced persons in the Far North and the NWSW. The assistance comes in the form of in-kind food distribution, livelihood assistance (gardening, small-scale trade, egg production), and cash transfers. The available information suggests that in the East and Adamawa regions, humanitarian assistance targets the most vulnerable CAR refugees, covers 50 percent of food rations, and reaches 39 percent of the refugee population. According to the UNHCR, humanitarian assistance for Nigerian refugees in the Minawao refugee camp continues. The available information suggests that current food rations, representing 70 percent of their dietary needs, are likely contributing to the relatively more positive outcomes for those receiving this assistance. However, access and financing obstacles occasionally disrupt the impact of this assistance. Moreover, refugee repatriation is underway. Since March 2021, approximately 2,800 people have been repatriated from the Minawao refugee camp to Borno State in Nigeria. More repatriations are expected in the days to come.

Assumptions:

The most likely scenario for food security from June 2021 to January 2022 is based on fundamental assumptions, in relation to the changing national context, which are:

• The number of new COVID-19 cases is expected to remain high throughout the year, given the current trends and the possible emergence of new variants. National vaccination efforts are only likely to have a significant impact on mitigating the COVID- 19 epidemic in the long term.

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• The government will maintain restrictions such as social Figure 1. Actual and projected prices of sorghum in Mora distancing, mask-wearing, and restricted gatherings and movements to reduce the spread of the virus. Seasonal rainfall forecasts (2021 Seasonal Forecasts for Sudano-Sahelian Africa [PRESASS], National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA]) published in April indicate that, between March and June, accumulated rainfall will be below average to average in the south. In the Far North, above-average rainfall is expected during the main rainy season from June to September. Overall, climatic conditions are expected to promote harvesting and post-harvesting activities in the south. At the same time, they will stimulate crop growth and development during the main growing season in the north.

Source: FEWS NET • However, current river flows and above-average rainfall forecasts, combined with trends observed over the last three years, suggest that floods at levels similar to those seen during the same period in 2020 are more likely in Mayo-Danay and Logone-et-Chari.

• Overall, main harvests in June are likely to be average and similar to the previous year, in part because of increased input support from the government and partners aimed at mitigating the impact of COVID-19 on production. In anglophone regions, production is expected to remain well below average, similar to the last three years. Reduced access to fields and inputs due to continued conflict and COVID-19 restrictions hindered the main season’s production activities. Main season sowing activities will likely be delayed until July in the north, where a dry period of around five to 10 consecutive days is expected between June and July. This projection is based on trends from the last three seasons. If droughts are prolonged, there is likely to be an armyworm infestation in sorghum, , cowpeas, and millet. In the North and Far North regions, average harvests are expected starting in October. Localized production deficits are likely in the departments most affected by insecurity.

• The ongoing rainy season is likely to promote pasture renewal and replenishment of water sources in the south. However, COVID-19- and security issue-related border closures and restricted inland movement will continue to limit seasonal livestock migration from the north to the south and in the Lake Chad basin between November and January. Restricted livestock migration could lead to a high concentration of herds along borders and to atypical placement. This, in turn, will accelerate pasture and water source deterioration as well as increase the risk of community conflict.

• New harvests and seasonal increases in market supplies should either stabilize or decrease staple food prices nationally starting in July. However, market supplies will likely either be below average because of harvest disruption in areas affected by conflict or delayed due to flooding in the Far North, along with the disruption of trade flows. In NWSW towns bordering Nigeria, an increase in informal cross-border flows of newly-harvested products is expected after July, although at a below- average level because of official border closings. Prices should typically begin to increase around December due to end-of- year festivities. However, in the NWSW, below-average harvests and reduced field-to-market flows will keep most staple food prices above average at urban markets. Prices are likely to increase sooner in this area than in the rest of the country. The impact of COVID-19 on local supply chains is expected to continue, limiting commercial flows between urban and rural markets and keeping the seasonal prices of imported staple products higher than average.

• Labor demand will likely reach its peak between August and September in the south due to food and cash crop harvesting activities. In the north, main season harvesting and off-season activities should promote labor demand between October 2021 and February 2022, respectively. Movement restrictions caused by COVID-19 and insecurity are expected to maintain below-average seasonal labor flows in Cameroon and from neighboring countries. However, the reopening of the border with Chad could generate seasonal labor migration and increase the supply of labor compared to last year. The typical influx of workers to cacao and coffee plantations in coastal and forested areas starting in November will remain below average due to ongoing conflict in the NWSW.

• Beginning in July, the sale of new harvests is expected to produce an increase in rural household incomes nationally. However, frequent road blockages in conflict regions as well as increased transport costs due to COVID-19 restrictions will likely hinder

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field-to-market transactions, particularly between distant production basins and urban markets. This will maintain below- average incomes for poor households in these regions. Additionally, the COVID-19 restrictions in place will continue to disrupt commercial activities and employment for poor urban households. Daily wages are expected to remain relatively stable over the next few months, although casual labor rates in major towns are lower than compared to the same period before COVID- 19. In the north, the seasonal decline and depletion of crop reserves during the ongoing lean season will cause poor households to increase the sale of livestock, particularly small ruminants, to mitigate income shortages until new harvests begin in September. Typically starting in October, small-scale fishing around the Lake Chad basin and in the Douala and Bakassi estuaries will increase poor households’ incomes.

• Preliminary results of the 2021 SMART – SENS nutritional survey conducted from February 16 to March 14, 2021 show a high GAM prevalence of 12.5 and 12.4 percent on and off site, respectively, among Central African child refugees aged 6 to 59 months. Even after the harvest, GAM prevalence may remain high as the large refugee presence is maintaining above- average prices for staple foods and increasing stress on natural resources and employment opportunities. Furthermore, while the current GAM prevalence is acceptable for the (4.8 percent) and in the Minawao camp (3.9 percent) and moderate for the Far North (5.9 percent), poor households’ nutritional status is expected to worsen with the ongoing lean season. This is particularly true among populations most affected by insurgent activities, especially since humanitarian assistance coverage is insufficient.

• It is likely the conflict will continue unchanged as a prolonged insurrection. Separatist groups are expected to clash with security forces at a rate similar to that observed between 2020 and 2021. The conflict should follow the seasonal pattern of increased intensity in early January 2022, staying within recorded averages.

• During the outlook period, insurgent attacks in the Far North are expected to increase during the dry months starting in December 2021 at a level similar to the number of attacks during the same period between 2019 and 2020.

Most likely food security outcomes

On a national scale, most poor households currently consume green staple food crops such as beans, potatoes, and maize. In July, most households will increase consumption of preferred staple foods, such as maize, beans, potatoes, yams, and , from their own yields. Many poor households will also earn increased income from harvest and post-harvest agricultural work. Market food dependence will undergo a seasonal decrease as households replenish their reserves with their own new harvests. Staple food prices will likely begin to stabilize then decrease at average seasonal levels as new harvests supply the market. In November, rice harvests will contribute to food availability in the country.

Most poor households in the country are expected to continue consuming their own yields until January 2022. As a result, they will likely continue to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity until January 2022.

New harvest sales are also expected to be a source of additional income among poor urban households, who comprise less than 20 percent of the urban population. This population’s subsistence methods were disrupted by COVID-19 restrictions. Improved access to food and essential non-food needs will improve their situation to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity. This does not include refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) who are expected to remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity due to livelihood loss and low humanitarian assistance.

Beginning in July, the current Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity in the NWSW will improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity until September due to access to new harvests, though they will be below average. Poor households will consume their own yields starting in July with a seasonal decline in prices and an increase in income from new harvest sales. Most departments will likely experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity starting in October since households will atypically and prematurely deplete their food reserves. They will depend on the market when prices are above average.

In departments most affected by conflict, such as , , and , production and access to food assistance remain insufficient, preventing poor households from meeting their dietary needs without resorting to negative coping strategies. These include reducing the number of daily meals for adults to prioritize children and consuming less favorable and cheaper food. Poor households will thus continue to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity throughout the entire projection period.

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In the Far North, departments most affected by insurgent activities will atypically and prematurely deplete their reserves and face below-average purchasing power due to below-average herd sizes. In Logone-et-Chari, Mayo-Tsanaga, and Mayo-Sava, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity is anticipated among poor households during the lean season from June to August before falling to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) with new harvests in October. In the Minawao refugee camp, Nigerian refugees regularly receive humanitarian assistance that meets approximately 70 percent of their dietary needs. They are expected to remain in Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) food insecurity throughout the entire projection period. Floods expected in Mayo-Danay are likely to produce localized crop and worker losses and disrupt livelihood activities, similar to what was seen in 2020. This will result in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity beginning in August, when floods are most likely.

Despite new harvests, the presence of more than 323,000 Central African refugees in the Mbéré, , and Lom-et-Djerem departments will continue to cause Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity until January 2022. This is because staple food prices are expected to remain above average and income opportunities will be lower than normal. The ongoing lean season in the CAR, which will end in August, will likely continue to raise current staple food prices in border towns in the East and Adamawa regions.

Events that could change the scenario Possible events over the next six months that could change the most likely scenario. Area Events Impact on food security conditions

The government may implement measures that are more restrictive than current ones (closure of aerial, naval, and land Negative impacts of a new borders; social distancing measures; restrictions on gatherings) COVID-19 virus variant that will in turn intensify the pandemic’s negative effect on the urban economy and on subsistence methods for poor households. National Increased food assistance for Increased access to food for IDPs, refugees, and host poor households affected by communities and improved acute food insecurity. COVID-19, conflict, and insecurity Facilitation of the flow of goods, including food products, and Border openings strengthened cross-border trade, increasing subsistence opportunities for poor households.

AREAS OF CONCERN Northwest and Southwest, Livelihood zone CM09

Current situation Figure 2. Map of livelihood zone CM09, Northwest Agricultural production: Insecurity continues to negatively impact and Southwest production and agricultural engagements in regions affected by conflict, where displaced households have lost access to typical livelihoods. In the first four months of 2021, ongoing combat intensification considerably disrupted early-season activities, such as land preparation and planting. Although below-average to average accumulated rainfall has not impacted crop development and growth this season, the total cultivated area has remained approximately 40 percent or more below pre-crisis levels, though similar to 2020 levels overall. Maize farming, which has stayed approximately 35 percent below average over the last three years, is expected to approach last year’s levels.

Input prices have remained 10 to 15 percent higher than average. This has had a negative impact on poor households’ input access despite seasonal subsidies granted by the government and other partners for fertilizer, Source: FEWS NET improved seeds, pesticides, agricultural tools, and small equipment. Small

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CAMEROON Food Security Outlook Juin 2021 à Janvier 2022 Figure 3. Map of market and trade flow activity, farmer rice production remains below average, although recent Northwest and Southwest increases in government assistance have revitalized the rice sector in the Northwest region. This follows a decline of approximately 60 percent in rice production between 2017 and 2019 compared to the pre-conflict period average.

Displacements continue to negatively impact access to land and agricultural inputs for most IDPs in the NWSW. Humanitarian organizations are distributing inputs (seeds, tools, fertilizer, poultry- farming inputs) directly or in the form of vouchers to stimulate and support production for this group of people. In March 2021, 1,923 IDPs in the NWSW received agricultural and livelihood support (Food Security Cluster [FSC]-NWSW). Displaced households in urban areas are increasingly resorting to market gardening and poultry production.

Livestock production: Herd numbers have decreased because most pastoral households relocated their livestock to safer areas in the West and Adamawa regions. Nevertheless, seasonal rainfall is boosting Source: FEWS NET pastures and water sources, permitting animals to live in favorable conditions. Households that cannot migrate are atypically selling their livestock at lower prices to quickly earn money. They may also do this out of fear of theft or seizure by armed groups, or due to an inability to access pastures or purchase dietary supplements and vaccinations. Current bovine production in the Northwest is estimated to be 39.5 percent lower than in the pre-conflict period. Sheep and pig production are in line with this trend. Sheep and pig production in the Southwest region, while still below average, saw increases of 20 and 50.8 percent, respectively, between 2019 and 2020 (Departmental Delegation of the Ministry of Livestock, Fisheries and Animal Husbandry [DDEPIA]-SW, 2020). This is attributed to increased demand in Douala. Major livestock markets remain disrupted or closed due to insecurity and COVID-19-related border closures. In May 2021, the Cameroon government officially closed all river and land borders along far northwest Cameroon and the Taraba state in Nigeria for security reasons. This is constricting bovine livestock migration in the Dumbo, , Ako, Nwa, Nkambé, and Ndu areas of Nigeria.

Agricultural income: While waiting for dry harvest sales to begin in July, poor households in urban areas resorted to other income- generating activities such as small-scale trade and selling firewood and coal. However, ongoing combat, frequent road blockages, and COVID-19 restrictions (border closures, restricted mobility) are slowing down the trade climate. Some women are currently involved in atypical activities such as sand transport and masonry.

Income from agricultural sales also remains lower than during the pre-conflict period due to reduced agricultural production overall. Frequent road blockages between fields and markets and processing plant failures have driven rural area producers to continue selling at prices lower than their counterparts’ in other regions of the country. In remote production basins where conflict has led to destruction, abandonment, or failure of cacao and coffee processing plants, low quality products have led to sale prices 30 to 50 percent below official levels. Income from seasonal agricultural work remains below average following failure or closure of several large-scale agricultural and agro-business (palm oil, rubber, banana, coffee, and cacao) farms in the NWSW. Moreover, the seasonal influx of workers from the Littoral and NWSW areas and from Nigeria to plantations in the Southwest region is currently below average due to large- scale insecurity. Population displacements have also led to labor force shortages and below-average demand. Day laborer wages range from 20 to 50 percent above average levels depending on the location and type of work.

Markets: The supply of primary staple commodities is low for the season and below average. As they wait for dry harvests, traders in urban towns are currently restocking cereals in neighboring the neighboring , where production is above average and includes imported products such as rice, wheat flour, and vegetable oil. Production below the average of previous seasons, insecurity, and lockdowns have considerably disrupted the supply of major markets as compared to the same period during a normal year. Although many households are starting to consume their own yields during the ongoing green harvest, they will mainly depend on market food purchases until July when dry harvests begin. The demand of traders, breweries, and the livestock feed industry for cereals remains high and unmet due to last season’s below-average production.

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Cereal prices remain higher compared to prior months, pending July’s dry harvests. Overall, seasonal prices remain slightly to moderately higher than those during a normal year due to below-average production over the last four consecutive years. However, on the Bamenda market, seasonal maize prices are now below average due to increased supplies in the West region combined with reduced flows to national (Yaoundé, Douala) and regional (Gabon, Equatorial Guinea) markets. The price of imported rice has remained 30 percent above average since 2017, mainly because of additional transport costs and the reduction in supply from the port city of Douala and further inland. High rice prices are driving poor households to consume cheaper and sometimes less favorable substitutes such as cassava, plantains, and maize.

Trade flows between Nigeria and Cameroon via Bamenda-Mamfe-Ekok-Enugu, Kumba-Mamfe-Ekok-Enugu, and Limbe-Idenau- Nigeria remain below average due to insecurity and COVID-19 border closures. A recent ban on all cross-border trade between the far northwest and Nigeria (Taraba state) is also further restricting livestock and non-agricultural product trade flows.

Conflict and humanitarian assistance: Compared to the same period in 2020, the conflict has seen a decline in the number of deaths in anglophone regions during the first four months of 2021 despite a rise in the number of attacks against civilians. Anglophone militant separatists have increased their use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in recent years, mainly targeting government security forces, perceived national political opponents, and those disobeying lockdowns. In April 2021, approximately 14,000 people were forced to flee their locations in the NWSW because of ongoing violence, particularly in the Menchum, Donga-Mantung, Bui, , , and departments (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs [OCHA]).

According to information from the Food Security Cluster, the scope of the current food assistance response (in kind or in cash) varies from month to month, but generally sits between 10 to 12 percent in the Northwest and 6 to 7 percent in the Southwest. This assistance reaches IDPs and poor at-risk households. The ration size is estimated to be approximately 50 percent. Although this assistance will likely result in relatively positive outcomes in terms of food security among recipients, conflict will occasionally disrupt the delivery of assistance in the affected areas.

Assumptions: • A fifth consecutive year of below-average production: The main season production is expected to remain below the pre- conflict period average and the average of the last four years of conflict. However, recent increases in financial and infrastructural support from the government and partners is expected to increase rice-growing production in the Northwest during the coming season. An increase in small farmer rice field areas and mechanization improvements to the Upper Valley Development Authority (UNVDA) program are expected to double rice production.

• Agricultural income will improve but remain below average: Harvest sales over the next few months are expected to increase incomes for most poor households. Coffee and cacao should see a seasonal increase in sales during the projection period, with peak selling months from September to February. The recent opening of a coffee processing plant in the Northwest is expected to increase household incomes for more than 35,000 coffee producers as a result of added value and increased production prices. Furthermore, the expected increase in rice production will raise labor force demand and improve poor households’ incomes, especially in the Ngo-Ketunija department. However, agricultural income will likely remain below the pre-conflict period average due to the main season’s below-average overall production, hindered market access and functionality, and substandard products due to defective processing plants. Pastoral household incomes will remain below average because of livestock reduction resulting from increased auction sales, seizure by armed groups, relocation to safer areas, and reduced access to inputs and markets.

• Markets: The new harvest is expected to stimulate market supply of vegetables, maize, potatoes, and beans starting in July. COVID-19 import reductions and supply limitations caused by insecurity will likely keep imported and locally-produced staple product supplies below average. The price of staple foods, apart from dry corn kernels, will follow seasonal trends but remain above the pre-conflict period average. With new harvests, most staple food prices will likely stabilize or decrease, then begin to increase in November due to premature stock depletion and end-of-year festivities. More significant price increases are expected on urban markets, where production basin supplies are hampered by frequent road blockages. Despite efforts aimed at stimulating local rice production, the price of imported rice will remain approximately 30 percent above average.

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Most likely food security outcomes Households currently consume green harvest food (beans, potatoes, and maize), but they will remain dependent on the market until dry harvests begin in July. Above-average prices and comparatively low incomes are preventing poor households from satisfying their dietary needs without resorting to drastic measures. The July dry harvests are expected to increase the availability of major staple foods and thus stabilize or decrease prices. Poor households will consume their own harvests, although they are below average. Their consumption of preferred staple foods such as maize, beans, potatoes, yams, and cassava will increase. Harvest sales and an increased demand for harvest labor will also likely stimulate household incomes. Between July and September, poor households and IDPs may fulfill their dietary needs, but below-average incomes will prevent them from making non-food purchases. They will thus face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity.

For most poor households in the NWSW, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity will likely begin in October. This will be caused by the premature depletion of food stocks, which will in turn increase staple product prices amid below-average production and incomes. After October, more poor households are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity as market dependence increases, staple foods rise to above-average prices, and purchasing power is low.

Insecurity has hampered most agricultural activities, and production is expected to be low in departments most affected by conflict, such as Menchum, Momo, and Lebialem. This will prevent poor households from meeting their dietary needs without resorting to negative coping strategies. These include reducing the number of daily meals for adults to prioritize children and consuming less favorable and cheaper food. Poor households will thus continue to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity throughout the entire projection period.

Events that could change the scenario Possible events over the next six months that could change the most likely scenario. Area Events Impact on food security conditions Increased forced displacement and further deterioration of Increased tensions and insecurity livelihoods Northwest and Southwest Increased humanitarian assistance in Increased food access and subsistence methods for poor both accessible and inaccessible households (IDPs, host communities) and improved food communities security outcomes

AREAS OF CONCERN Far North region Figure 4. Map of livelihood zone CM04, Mayo-Sava and Mayo-Tsanaga Current situation Agricultural production: Off-season harvests that ended in April were estimated to be average, although repeated Boko Haram raids in Mayo- Sava, Mayo-Tsanaga, and Logone-et-Chari kept production at below- average levels locally. Compared to the previous off-season, onion bulb production has increased approximately 10 to 15 percent due to increased demand in Nigeria (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development [MINADER]). During the ongoing lean season, poor households are mainly consuming food from market purchases, supplemented by market gardening crops and fish from the Logone River and its tributaries and the Mada dam. The beginning of the main growing season in the north was normal and the main sowing season is expected to end in Source: FEWS NET

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July. Sowing will likely be affected by drought between mid-July and Figure 5. Map of market and trade flow activity, Lake the end of July, forcing farmers to resow their seeds while others Chad basin delay sowing until the end of July. Supply constraints caused by persistent insecurity and COVID-19 restrictions are keeping the price of agricultural inputs (improved seeds, fertilizer) at approximately 10 percent above average, limiting poor households’ access.

Livestock production: Livestock remains below average due to widespread insecurity and reduced access to pastoral inputs (medication, supplements, veterinary services), pastures, and markets. Following the pastoral lean season from March to May, the current pastoral situation is improving as pastures start to regrow with the return of the rains. However, livestock has not returned to favorable physical conditions given that pasture outputs remain low in most regions and residues from last season’s harvest have been depleted. Livestock migration from the south to the north continues. Source: FEWS NET The current destinations are the Diamaré plain (Mindif, Moulvoudaye, Petté) and the Logone floodplains. COVID-19 and border closures caused by security issues are hindering transnational livestock migration from Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR) to Cameroon and vice versa as well as transit movements from Chad to the CAR via Cameroon.

Markets: The seasonal supply of major staple foods like sorghum, maize, and rice is average, but is experiencing a seasonal decrease due to the ongoing lean season. Traders are restocking with off-season crops and imported products like rice, wheat flour, and vegetable oil. Household dependence on market purchases is seeing a seasonal increase as food stocks diminish, especially for households in Mayo-Sava, Mayo-Tsanaga, and Logone-et-Chari. These households experienced below-average production last season due to insurgent activities. Demand from traders, breweries, the livestock feed industry, and humanitarian procurement remains above average due to stock reductions and increased smuggling to Nigeria and other neighboring countries despite border restrictions. Cereal prices are increasing in line with typical seasonal trends, with seasonal prices slightly to moderately higher than those from the same period over the last three years. The current price of sorghum in major markets is 10 to 15 percent higher than the price in a normal year. Above-average prices are due to growing demand from northeast Nigeria and from the CAR as well as to the increase in informal flows despite border closures.

Trade flows to regional markets via Yaoundé and Douala remain below average due to border closures and increased transport costs caused by COVID-19 restrictions.

Demand for small ruminants is stabilizing after an increase during Ramadan. The sale of calves and cull cows is increasing because they are vital for labor and weight gain, respectively. Seasonal livestock prices are stable overall. Small ruminant prices are likely to increase again with the approach of the Tabaski holiday in July.

Agricultural income: Agricultural labor incomes and harvest sales during the recently ended off-season are increasing purchasing power among poor households. However, levels are below average in areas experiencing repeated terrorist raids. As cereal reserves are depleted, households are earning income from typical activities such as agricultural work, selling firewood and charcoal, market gardening, cotton, and fishing. Demand for planting activities in the main season is currently high. Off-season onions, okra, chilies, and watermelon are currently in high demand in markets in N’Djamena and Nigeria and the Yaoundé and Douala national markets. Fish from the Logone River and its tributaries are being sold nationally and exported to Nigeria, Chad, and the CAR. Current fish reserves are likely to start diminishing as rainfall replenishes water resources in August.

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CAMEROON Food Security Outlook Juin 2021 à Janvier 2022

Reduced levels of informal and formal agricultural trade flows in the Figure 6. Projected price of maize in Maiduguri-Mora-Maroua and Maiduguri--Kousseri corridors caused 5,000 by insecurity and COVID-19 restrictions is limiting monetary flows. Pastoral incomes are also negatively affected by reduced flows to Yaoundé and 4,000 Douala as well as to neighboring countries (Gabon and Equatorial Guinea). Additionally, they are impacted by the disruption of seasonal livestock migration caused by the closure of major border transit points with Nigeria, 3,000 the CAR, and the rest of the Lake Chad basin. 2,000

Assumptions 1,000

• Rainfall: Seasonal rainfall forecasts (2021 PRESASS) released in April 0

indicate above-average rainfall in the Far North between June and

Jul

Jan…

Dec…

Jun

Oct

Apr

Feb Sep

Dec

Aug

Nov

Mar May September 2021. Overall, climatic conditions are expected to support 2-year average 2019/20 normal crop development during the main season. Based on current 2020/21 observed 2020/21 projection river flows, above-average rainfall forecasts, and trends observed over Source: FEWS NET the last three years, floods are more likely in Mayo-Danay and Logone- et-Chari.

• Agricultural production: Drought periods similar to those observed in June and July over the last three seasons are likely to delay crop sowing in the main season and promote armyworm infestations in sorghum, maize, cowpeas, and millet. During the main season, heavy localized rainfall expected to begin in September is likely to hinder sorghum, maize, millet, and cowpea harvesting in certain regions and limit off-season activities. Producers are likely to increase cultivated areas during the next main season to meet increased Nigerian demand caused by an increase in illegal exports to Nigeria. While a normal agricultural lean season is expected between June and August for most Far North households, the existing food reserves will likely run out before the new harvests in October, as most households lost their fields and livestock due to frequent insurgent attacks. Expected flooding beginning in October is also likely to displace people and destroy fields.

• Staple food prices: Staple cereal prices will likely continue increasing until October, following seasonal trends. However, they will remain above average partly because of heightened smuggling to Nigeria. Nevertheless, prices should stabilize once harvesting begins in October. They will stay above the five-year average in areas with recorded local production deficits.

• Agricultural income: As incomes from agricultural sales diminish during the lean season, more households will likely sell their small ruminants to mitigate deficits until new harvests in October. Inland labor force migration to Chad, the CAR, and Nigeria, which usually culminates between October and February to support main season harvesting and rice and sorghum production in the off-season in neighboring regions, is expected to remain hindered by persistent insecurity and the COVID-19 pandemic.

• COVID-19 pandemic: Existing COVID-19 border closures continue to impact trade flows from the Far North to neighboring Nigeria and Chad. Furthermore, disruptions to the international agricultural input supply chain continue to increase prices by approximately 10 percent above average compared to the pre-COVID-19 pandemic period, in turn affecting poor households’ access to agricultural inputs.

• Insecurity: Insurgent attacks in the Far North are expected to continue throughout the projected period, impacting poor households’ subsistence activities in areas bordering Nigeria (Mayo-Sava, Mayo-Tsanaga, and Logone-et-Chari). Increased insecurity will likely continue to impact cross-border trade and livestock migration between the Far North and neighboring Nigeria and Chad. In turn, this will hinder livestock trade flows between these countries. Moreover, labor force migration in the Far North, Chad, and Nigeria, which usually culminates between October and February to support main season harvesting and rice and sorghum production in the off-season in neighboring regions, is expected to remain hindered by persistent insecurity.

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CAMEROON Food Security Outlook Juin 2021 à Janvier 2022

Most likely food security outcomes Poor households in areas most affected by insurgent activities, notably in the Logone-et-Chari, Mayo-Sava, and Mayo-Tsanaga departments, are seeing their usual subsistence activities disrupted. Diminishing income opportunities from agricultural work and selling agricultural products, caused by below-average production, prevents households from buying food sold at above-average market prices. The proportion of poor households with inadequate (poor or borderline) food consumption will likely increase during the lean season from June to August. This is due to more rapid reserve depletion, above-average staple food prices, and below-average livestock, keeping poor households in this area in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity. As the lean season progresses, poor households are expected to resort to negative adaptation strategies to access food and incomes. These include increasing livestock sales and, in the worst cases, selling female animals and other productive assets, consuming cheaper and less favorable food, and reducing the number and size of meals. Beginning in September, the impact of possible flooding will likely be similar to flooding in 2020, when the destruction of 19,676 hectares of agricultural land and 3,200 animals, combined with livelihood losses for approximately 162,000 people, led to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity in the Mayo-Danay, Mayo-Kani, Mayo-Sava, Diamaré, and Logone-et-Chari departments. Although production is expected to be below average, households will consume their own crops starting in September, and income from the sale of newly-harvested agricultural products will likely improve access to basic needs and livelihood conditions. Poor households in Mayo-Sava, Mayo-Tsanaga, and Logone-et-Chari will be able to fulfill their dietary needs, but the expected local decline in production, leading to a decline in incomes and an increased dependence on the market, will prevent them from making non-food purchases. These households will thus face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity between September and January 2022.

Events that could change the scenario Possible events over the next six months that could change the most likely scenario. Area Events Impact on food security conditions

A likely return of IDPs to their original villages in the Far North Decreased insurgent activities in Restructuring of agriculture, farming, and other economic Cameroonian border towns activities Increased humanitarian Improved food availability and subsistence methods among assistance IDPs, refugees, and impacted communities Far North Official border opening with Increased formal cereal, livestock, and other exports to Nigeria northeast Nigeria and improved subsistence methods for most poor households

Prolonged flooding Destruction of crops, livestock, and subsistence methods and an increased number of food insecure households Insufficient accumulated rainfall Reduction in crop yields and pastures, dried out livestock watering points

ABOUT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

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