Juin 2021 À Janvier 2022 the Main Harvests Should Improve Food Security Conditions Although Production Outlooks Remain Unfavorable in the Northwest and Southwest
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CAMEROON Food Security Outlook Juin 2021 à Janvier 2022 The main harvests should improve food security conditions although production outlooks remain unfavorable in the Northwest and Southwest KEY MESSAGES • Beginning in July, the dry harvest is likely to improve the food security Current food security, June 2021 conditions of poor households in the Northwest and Southwest. Despite expected below-average production, households will consume their own yields. A seasonal increase in crop sales will also improve incomes. Food insecurity is expected to lessen to Stressed (IPC Phase 2), except in departments most affected by conflict, where production and access to food assistance remain very limited. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity will likely begin in October due to premature food stock depletion, which will in turn increase staple product prices. • COVID-19 prevention measures will continue to restrict daily income opportunities for poor households in urban areas. Staple product prices will remain above average due to COVID-19-related supply disruptions. COVID-19 vaccination campaigns are ongoing throughout the country, but the impact of the pandemic is likely to persist in 2021 and 2022. Source: FEWS NET • In departments most affected by insurgent activities in the Far North, FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the below-average livestock numbers are reducing livestock sales. In consensus of national food security partners. addition, below-average localized production in 2020/21 is keeping food staples at above-average prices. Households in Mayo-Sava, Mayo-Tsanaga, and Logone-et-Chari are borrowing more, limiting the size and frequency of meals, buying cheaper food replacements, and selling charcoal and firewood to meet their dietary needs. They will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity until August. SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR, FAR NORTH Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET Cameroon FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not [email protected] necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International www.fews.net/west-africa/cameroon Development or the United States government. CAMEROON Food Security Outlook Juin 2021 à Janvier 2022 NATIONAL OVERVIEW Current situation Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: Newly reported COVID-19 cases have Projected food security outcomes, June to declined by an average of 20 percent since the first week of May 2021. September 2021 Vaccination campaigns are ongoing throughout the country. As of June 2021, 97,245 vaccine doses have been administered and 18,769 people have been fully vaccinated, representing less than 0.1 percent of the total population. Other measures to reduce the spread of the virus, such as social distancing, mask-wearing, restricted gatherings and movements, and mandatory screening at all entry points, remain in place. In urban centers, economic activities related to tourism – including hotels and restaurants and informal activities such as small-scale trading – continue to operate at below-average levels. On June 20, Cameroon reopened its border with Chad via the Ngueli bridge given the downward trend of positive COVID-19 cases in both countries. Agricultural production: The decennial warnings provided by the National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) in March 2021 show that the start of the rains in mid-March promoted the timely launch of sowing activities during the main season in southern Cameroon. Meanwhile, seasonal rainfall accumulation allowed normal crop development. The main season’s Source: FEWS NET production is expected to be average, in part because of an increase in input Projected food security outcomes, October 2021 to support from the government and partners aimed at mitigating COVID-19’s January 2022 impact on production. Throughout this season, agricultural engagements were hindered partially due to reduced mobility and higher transport costs caused by COVID-19 as well as insecurity in the Northwest, the Southwest, and the Far North. The prices of agricultural inputs, such as improved seeds, fertilizer, pesticides, and herbicides, remain 10 to 15 percent higher than they were before COVID-19. In most rural areas, chemical fertilizers are 10 to 12 more expensive than they were during the same period in 2019. Prices are even higher in areas affected by ongoing conflict and insecurity. Livestock production: The ongoing rainy season is stimulating the growth of pastures and the replenishment of water sources, thus improving pastoral resources. Livestock migration from the south to the north continues. The current destinations are the Diamaré plain (Mindif, Moulvoudaye, Petté) and the Logone floodplains. COVID-19 and border closures caused by security issues are hindering transnational livestock migration from Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR) to Cameroon and vice versa as well as transit movements from Chad to the CAR via Source: FEWS NET Cameroon. FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. Markets: In major markets, the supply of staple foods is low for the season. Key crops are expected to replenish them beginning in July. Increased transport costs and road blockages due to insecurity and COVID-19 restrictions continue to disrupt the internal flow of crops from production basins to urban markets. In the Far North, persistent insecurity has caused approximately 64 percent of staple food and livestock markets to see up to a 50 percent reduction in supply and in the number of traders compared to what is typical for this time of year. In the Northwest and Southwest, households’ market access to buy and sell remains below average due to frequent lockdowns and a reduced number of market days. Throughout the country, household dependence on market purchases is high for the season. It is also increasing in the northern regions, where the lean season is underway. The price of imported rice has remained 30 percent above average after a spike in May 2020 due to COVID-19-related supply disruptions. In the Northwest and Southwest, supply is below average due to last season’s below-average production, which resulted in more rapid stock depletion. As a result, most staple products continue to Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 CAMEROON Food Security Outlook Juin 2021 à Janvier 2022 sell at prices above the pre-conflict period average. In the Far North, seasonal cereal prices are slightly to moderately higher than during the same period over the last three years. This is due to growing demand from northeast Nigeria and from the CAR as well as to an increase in informal flows despite border closures. Cross-border trade: Insecurity and COVID-19 have led to official border closings. Despite this, informal cross-border trade flows continue, although at below-average levels. The smuggling of cereals and other staple foods through border towns in the Far North to Nigeria, where demand is high, is increasing. This has led to increased prices in Cameroon. Increased flows were also observed along the Doula-Bangui corridor following the reopening of the Cameroon-CAR border in early 2021. However, persistent insecurity and threats from rebel groups are keeping flows at a below-average level. Herd arrivals from Chad and Sudan have declined by 70 percent, maintaining a below-average flow of livestock to destination markets in Yaoundé, Douala, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, and the CAR. Nutritional situation: Preliminary results from the latest Standardized Monitoring and Assessment of Relief and Transition (SMART) – Standardized Expanded Nutrition Survey (SENS) nutritional survey conducted by the Cameroonian government, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), and UNICEF from February 16 to March 14, 2021 showed that the prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) among Central African child refugees (6 to 59 months) living both in and outside of camps in the East and Adamawa regions has been increasing since 2016. It is currently above the critical threshold of 10 percent. Meanwhile, the Far North has recorded a moderately high GAM prevalence (5.9 percent). The current nutritional situation in this region remains precarious. It is exacerbated by the ongoing lean season and a lack of hygiene/sanitation and access to drinking water during the current rainy season. In the Northwest and Southwest, acute malnutrition among poor households continues due to the combined effects of declining production and above-average staple food prices caused by ongoing conflicts and population displacements. Conflict and insecurity: The ongoing conflict in the Northwest and Southwest (NWSW) remains the main driver behind acute food insecurity in these regions. The COVID-19 pandemic is further exacerbating its impact on poor households. Compared to the same period in 2020, the conflict has seen a decline in the number of associated deaths during the first four months of 2021, despite a rise in the number of attacks against civilians. Anglophone militant separatists have increased their use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in recent years, mainly targeting government security forces, perceived national political opponents, and those disobeying lockdowns. Moreover, in the Far North, Jama’atu Ahlis-Sunnah Lidda’Awati Wal-Jihad (Boko Haram) and the Islamic State West African Province (ISWAP)