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Idahoidaho Weeklyweekly Briefingbriefing IDAHOIDAHO WEEKLYWEEKLY BRIEFINGBRIEFING August 6, 2018 Vol XIX, No 32 www.ridenbaugh pre s s .com In this issue With the arrival of August, preliminaries begin in the fall general election campaign season. An early activity was a debate between the candidates for superintendent of public instruction; more faceoffs are expected soon. Meanwhile, smoke gathered over the skies of southern Idaho as one wildfire after another popped up. Cover picture MAGIC VALLEY WIND Giant propellers stand above a farm field west of Burley, generating increasingly substantial amounts of electric power in the region. (photo/Randy Stapilus) 2 View Building a perfect storm What would it take for Democrat Paulette Jordan to win the governorship in November over Republican Brad Little? You might inquire in response, why ask? Little is heavily favored to win, right? And yes he is; and none of what follows should be interpreted to the contrary. But likely is not the same as certainty. Just ask all those prognosticators about their 2016 presidential estimates. In a batch of conversations around southern Idaho this last week, with some well-informed people in both parties, a common perspective emerged, which might be useful to consider as the campaign season unfolds. First, the most favorable estimates of a Jordan win put it at about 10 percent: One chance in ten. Others figure the prospect at around five percent. No one went much lower than that, which means a consensus view that she has a small but not insignificant chance of winning. They gave her a better chance than other recent Democratic nominees. Most people I talked to (opinions were not divided along party lines) thought Jordan was likely to get either the best percentage for governor, or nearly the best, of any Democratic nominee since Cecil Andrus in 1990. Most estimated percentages for her in the low to mid-40s; several thought percentages around 45 or 46 were plausible. That would imply a seriously close contest. Why? One reason is that she’s a strong campaigner. Most than most Idaho candidates, she has presence and draws immediate attention where she goes, and voters tend to respond to that - and react to the response. The people I talked to in both parties had strong favorable opinions of Little - his character, knowledge of issues and of the state, skill as a leader, and overall probability that he’d be a good governor - except when it came to his role as a campaigner. There his skills were less obvious; he’s not the natural campaigner the current governor has always been. We’re now entering a space in the cycle where that may matter. 3 Both Jordan and Little emerged from contested primaries. But most people - not everyone but most - thought Little was at greater risk of losing some of his own party’s base because of dissatisfaction with the outcome of the primary. Specifically, the thought was that a number of backers of losing contender Raul Labrador, many of whom likely spent most of campaign season thinking their man would win the nomination, may be disgusted enough to not vote. If the election is otherwise close, that could matter. (There was some argument that dynamic could hinder Jordan too, but most thought that less likely.) 2018 may be a Democratic sweep year. That’s not a certainty, and political waves don’t splash the same everywhere; the waves in Idaho probably would be more like ripples than a tsunami. It would not, for example, come anywhere close to turning the Idaho Legislature Democratic; but a shift of five or six seats (out of 105) toward the Democrats might be a realistic prospect. That could slosh upward, adding more to the Jordan column. Aside from national trends, there’s a local issue that could matter: The Medicaid expansion ballot slot. That might have the effect of drawing out a significant number of Democratic-leaning voters, and become a real factor in races that otherwise are close. There’s also a strategic risk Little has to watch out for. His message and approach logically would involve staying relentlessly positive, making the affirmative case for the current administration and sticking with the course. He’s mostly been hewing to that tack up to now - excepting a few shots fired at competitors in the primary - and it’s the smart thing to do. But … if polling shows the race tightening closely toward the end, if voters are simply in a very dissatisfied mood, there would be a temptation to improve his position by going harshly negative on Jordan - to drive up the base and change the conversation and weaken whatever momentum she has. That would be a mistake and probably would backfire. Little probably won’t go there (it’s certainly not in his native temperament). But if the race tightens, the temptation would arise, and I’ve seen any number of campaigns that have given in to it, usually to their eventual regret. A Jordan win would take a perfect storm in an alignment of stars. The odds are against. But don’t ignore this race; the raw materials for an upset may be widely scattered but they do exist. – Randy Stapilus 4 In the news A review, in some cases with expansion and comment, of leading Idaho news stories – excluding national or feature articles, and local crime and accidents. Generally, these were featured last week on front pages of the state’s newspapers. But the list also includes some other articles of note, including from Idaho broadcasters. Please note that some links lead to newspaper pay walls. They were live at the time of publication, but may be discontinued later. ★ Notes an article of special interest July 29 Growth in Treasure Valley stresses work for law enforcement (Idaho Statesman, Boise) There’s a reduction in the number of officers available to respond per incidents reporting in. Dubois residents evacuated as fires close in (Post Register, Idaho Falls) The large fire was caused by lightning. Idaho Falls paper will launch a new look in coming week (Post Register, Idaho Falls) The paper will be redesigned, and the website is more open: “Before, only paid subscribers could access the content online. Now everyone will have basic access to our news stories. Heavy users of the site and specialty content may require a subscription down the road.” ★ What changes might happen if Avista is bought by Hydro One? (Lewiston Tribune) Article notes if the buy goes through, “It will mark the first time that people more than 2,000 miles away will have such an important say in the utility that was founded nearly 130 years ago as Washington Water Power.” ★ Role of irrigation water changing in a time of urbanization (Idaho Press, Nampa) It was a system designed for farm country, and the sprawl of cities is changing the picture. ★ There’s a lack of detailed information as law enforcement goes after opioids (Idaho Press, Nampa) There’s uncertainty about who exactly should be gathering and analyzing information about the problem. Canyon Commissioners plan Tuesday vote on jail trailer (Idaho Press, Nampa) It would be a lease running seven years for temporary quarters. Domestic violence shelter reopens at Burley (Times News, Twin Falls) After organizational problems, the renamed center has returned with new staff and office. 5 Students at Wendell will get laptop computers (Times News, Twin Falls) The touch-screen devices will be usable in class and at home. July 30 Concerns arise over plans for trucking operation near airport (Idaho Statesman, Boise) Residents of a mobile home park are concerned a new shipping business might mean pollution, traffic and an eventual ouster from their park. The area is not far from the airport, located near Eisenman Road. Hottest weather so far this year coming to southern Idaho (Idaho Statesman, Boise) Tuesday may be especially hot. Moscow hosts music festival and ice cream social (Daily News, Moscow) Moscow is holding multiple events over the weekend. How Idaho state tries to combat invasive species in water bodies (Times News, Twin Falls) A look at noxious plants and dangerous animal species which threaten health and agriculture in the state. ★ Twin Falls considers historic area master plan for city (Times News, Twin Falls) The city council will consider the possibility at its regular meeting this week. July 31 ★ Reporter talks about navigating local health care when giving birth (Idaho Statesman, Boise) It turned out to be more complicated than this health reporter had anticipated. Post Register website and print design are under revision today (Post Register, Idaho Falls) The changes to design and access to content were noted by the paper in a Sunday column. Idaho joins case opposing fraud operators targeting veterans (Lewiston Tribune) The overall case is national. Moscow and Pullman both seek to complete mixed-use developments before university term starts (Daily News, Moscow) These two large projects are called Identity and Evolve. Washington State Univer sity gets a warning from feds on animal treatment (Daily News, Moscow) It comes from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which cites concerns about animal treatment. Heavy smoke and fire hitting southern Idaho (Idaho Press, Nampa) Fires are erupting in numerous places around the state, and smoke is growing through the state’s air. 6 ★ Idaho has a new “slowpoke” law, but few people cited so far (Idaho Press, Nampa) The law effective July 1 allows police to cite drivers moving slowly in fast lanes. Not a lot of citations have been issued for violations yet, however. Governor candidate Paulette Jordan stops in Twin Falls (Times News, Twin Falls) The Democrat stops in downtown Twin Falls and describes herself as a “progressive conservative.” Students from Filer and Twin Falls work on “Stop the Bleed” (Times News, Twin Falls) They’re trying to provide bleeding control kits, evidently to be used in the case of a shooting incident.
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