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On the Properties of Financial Analyst Earnings Forecasts: Some New Evidence

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On the Properties of Financial Analyst Earnings Forecasts: Some New Evidence Université de Neuchâtel Faculté de droit et des sciences économiques On The Properties of Financial Analyst Earnings Forecasts: Some New Evidence Thèse Présentée à la Faculté de droit et des sciences économiques pour obtenir le grade de docteur ès sciences économiques par Guido Bolliger Sous la direction du Professor Michel Dubois Membres du jury de these: Professeur Yadolah Dodge Professeur Bertrand Jacquillat Professeur Henri Loubergé Professeur Michael Rockinger Professeur René Stulz Neuchâtel 2003 ii Monsieur Guido Bolliger est autorisé à imprimer sa thèse de doctorat ès sciences économiques intitulée: “On The Properties of Financial Analyst Earnings Forecasts: Some New Evidence”. Il assume seul la responsabilité des opinions énoncées. Neuchâtel, le 13 octobre 2003 Ernest Weibel Doyen de la faculté de droit et des sciences économiques iii Acknowledgements I gratefully acknowledge the advice and support of my dissertation committee, Michel Dubois, Yadolah Dodge, Bertrand Jacquillat, Henri Loubergé, Michael Rockinger, and René Stulz. I owe a special debt to Michel Dubois, whose guidance, encouragements, ideas, and trust have stimulated my research in countless ways and whose friendship is yet more valuable. I have also learned much from my teachers and colleagues during the FAME Ph.D. program and during my time at the University of Neuchâtel. I am particularly grateful to Jean- François Bacmann, Dusan Isakov, Manuel Kast, Pierre Jeanneret, and Roger Walder. This thesis has benefited from the comments of Pascal Dumontier, Christophe Pérignon, William Rees, Olivier Scaillet, and Ernst-Ludgwig von Thadden. I thank the International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering (FAME), the University of Neuchâtel, and the Swiss National Science Foundation for financial support. I also acknowledge the support of Thomson Financial for providing earnings per share forecast data, available through the Institutional Brokers Estimate System. iv Table of contents Introduction ...............................................................................................................................1 Chapter 1: What do financial analysts do?...............................................................................3 1.1 Fundamental analysis ............................................................................................3 1.2 The properties of financial analyst forecasts.........................................................7 Chapter 2: The determinants of financial analysts’ forecast bias ..........................................13 2.1 Macroeconomic situation ....................................................................................14 2.2 Institutional factors..............................................................................................15 2.3 Conflicts of interest faced by financial analysts .................................................18 2.4 Analysts’ career concerns ...................................................................................22 Chapter 3: The characteristics of individual analyst forecasts in Europe..............................25 3.1 Introduction .........................................................................................................25 3.2 Prior research.......................................................................................................28 3.3 Hypotheses and empirical design........................................................................30 3.4 Sample selection..................................................................................................35 3.5 Empirical results..................................................................................................39 3.6 Conclusion...........................................................................................................55 Chapter 4: Who are the best? Local versus foreign analysts on Latin American emerging markets .................................................................................................................57 4.1 Introduction .........................................................................................................57 4.2 Data and overview statistics................................................................................59 4.3 Analysts’ timeliness ............................................................................................63 4.4 Forecast accuracy ................................................................................................67 4.5 Impact of forecast revisions on security prices...................................................75 4.6 Conclusions .........................................................................................................80 v Chapter 5: Executive Compensation and Analyst Guidance: The Link between CEO Compensation and Expectations Management.....................................................82 5.1 Introduction .........................................................................................................82 5.2 Literature review .................................................................................................84 5.3 Hypothesis development .....................................................................................86 5.4 Sample and methodology ....................................................................................88 5.5 Results ...............................................................................................................103 5.6 Conclusion.........................................................................................................118 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................122 References ............................................................................................................................127 vi List of Tables Chapter 3 Table 3.1: Sample statistics.....................................................................................................37 Table 3.2: Descriptive statistics for the raw variables ............................................................40 Table 3.3: Spearman rank correlation among the regression variables ..................................41 Table 3.4: Relative forecast error and individual analysts’ characteristics.............................43 Table 3.5: Mean value for the raw variables by country.........................................................47 Table 3.6: Country regressions ...............................................................................................49 Table 3.7: Yearly movements of financial analysts ................................................................51 Table 3.8: Financial analysts movements and experience ......................................................52 Table 3.9: Measuring the link between analysts’ movements and track-record.....................54 Chapter 4 Table 4.1 : Summary statistics by year ...................................................................................60 Table 4.2: Summary statistics by country and industry ..........................................................61 Table 4.3: Frequency of forecast issuance and revision .........................................................62 Table 4.4: Financial analysts’ timeliness ................................................................................66 Table 4.5: Foreign and local leaders distribution across firms ...............................................67 Table 4.6: Mean absolute forecast errors ................................................................................71 Table 4.7: Financial analysts relative forecast accuracy.........................................................74 Table 4.8: Stock price reactions following forecast surprises.................................................77 Table 4.9: The relation between stock price reactions and analysts’ origin ...........................79 vii Chatper 5 Table 5.1:Summary statistics for the expectations management proxy..................................91 Table 5.2: Summary statistics for CEO compensation components .......................................93 Table 5.3: Summary statistics for control variables................................................................98 Table 5.4: Correlation coefficients for regression variables .................................................100 Table 5.5: Downward guidance and CEO compensation components .................................103 Table 5.6: Downward guidance, CEO compensation components, and control variables ...105 Table 5.7: Fixed and random effects estimations..................................................................107 Table 5.8: Fama-MacBeth yearly regressions.......................................................................109 Table 5.9: Conditioning on reaching behavioral thresholds.................................................111 Table 5.10: Conditioning on missing behavioral thresholds.................................................112 Table 5.11: Meeting or beating market estimates and CEO compensation components......113 Table 5.12: Cumulative abnormal returns at the announcement date...................................115 Table 5.13: Market reaction when expectations management is suspected..........................116 Table 5.14: Explaining market reaction for firms suspected of managing earnings.............117 viii List of
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