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MAX Security Report Intel@Max-Security.Com +44 203 540 0434 MAX Security Report [email protected] +44 203 540 0434 Politics Niger Tactical: First round of presidential, 24 legislative elections to be held nationwide on DEC December 27; avoid election-related facilities 11:08 UTC Please be advised Niger is slated to hold the first round of presidential and legislative elections on December 27. 7.4 million Nigeriens are eligible to participate in the electoral process. The presidential elections follow a two-round system, with the top two candidates proceeding to a run-off election if no candidate wins an absolute majority in the first round. Legislative members are elected through two methods: 158 seats are contested from eight multi-member constituencies using a party-list proportional representation system; and 13 seats, reserved for minorities and diaspora Nigeriens, are elected using the first-past-the-post system. The Constitutional Court has validated 30 presidential candidacies which include: Mohamed Bazoum, the former interior minister, and candidate of the ruling Nigerien Party for Democracy and Socialism (PNDS-Tarayya). Senyi Oumarou of the opposition National Movement for the Development of Society (MNSD-Nassara) Salou Djibo of the Peace-Justice-Progress (PJP) Doubara Party. Djibo also led the 2010 military coup d’etat against former President Mamadou Tandja. However, the Court has invalidated the candidacy of Hama Amadou, the leader of the main opposition Nigerien Democratic Movement for an African Federation (Moden Fa-Lumana) as well as the larger Coalition of Alternating Democracy (CAP 20-21) citing his previous conviction on charges of child trafficking. Reports indicate that the Moden Fa-Lumana has now endorsed the candidacy of former page 1 / 3 President Mahamane Ousmane. Municipal elections took place on December 13, with the PNDS- Tarayya winning a plurality of 1,800 of the 4,200 council seats. For a more detailed analysis of the Niger elections, please click here. Assessment & Forecast 1. These elections are notable given that current President Mahamdou Issoufou has decided to adhere to constitutional stipulations and not run for a third term, which could potentially lead to the first democratic transition of power in Niger since independence in 1960. However, political tensions have risen over the past few months amid the disqualification of Amadou’s candidacy and the opposition’s rejection of the audit of the biometric register on the grounds that it excludes diaspora Nigeriens. The opposition also accuses the Constitutional Court and the Independent National Election Commission (CENI) of bias towards the government, especially since a case challenging Bazoum’s candidacy on grounds of nationality was quickly dismissed. FORECAST: While these tensions have not manifested in widespread protests, both Oumarou and Djibo have filed a fresh petition against Bazoum’s run. The court is likely to reject this petition, which could lead to limited opposition protests in Niamey and other larger cities across the country. These protests are likely to be forcibly dispersed using tear gas and batons. 2. These elections also come amid pervasive insecurity across the jihadist entrenched Tillaberi, Tahoua, and Diffa regions. FORECAST: To that point, there remains a strong possibility that jihadists may attempt to delegitimize the elections and demonstrate their own strength and hold over vast tracts of territory within these areas by targeting electoral facilities, election workers, and politicians and disrupting the electoral process. These intimidatory tactics will likely serve to further alienate the locals from the state. They may also launch large-scale attacks on villages to prevent them from voting, while gaining media attention, as seen with the recent Boko Haram attack in Toumour, Diffa Region on December 13 as municipal elections were being held. 3. FORECAST: In areas not affected by militancy, including Niamey, polling day is expected to pass peacefully given the precedent of the municipal elections held on December 13 and the relatively peaceful campaign period. That said, the possibility that the militants will look to capitalize on the political uncertainty and the heightened media attention to attack Niamey cannot be entirely excluded. However, militants have not successfully conducted an attack within Niamey city limits as yet despite being entrenched in Tillaberi Region, which encloses Niamey, for years and there has been no indication of militants mobilizing to attack the city. Thus, the possibility remains low. 4. FORECAST: The post-electoral environment is expected to be tense, especially ahead of the release and validation of the results. Given opposition concerns over the impartiality of the CENI and Constitutional Court, it may attempt to delegitimize the election process and possibly reject the results, especially if Bazoum wins the first round of the elections with an absolute majority. This scenario could lead to widespread protests in Niamey and larger towns across the country, which may engender unrest as the security forces are expected to respond forcibly. In the event of a second round of presidential elections, the opposition is likely to rally behind the candidate in opposition to Bazoum, with political tensions likely to persist as parties increase campaigning efforts. Looking forward, the political landscape remains uncertain and tense over the coming weeks. Recommendations 1. Those operating or residing in Niger on December 27 are advised to avoid the vicinity of all electoral facilities due to the presidential and legislative elections and the associated risk of militant attacks. page 2 / 3 2. Avoid large gatherings and maintain heightened vigilante over the coming weeks due to the potential for post-electoral protests and violence. 3. We advise against all travel to Tillaberi and Tahoua Regions in the west along the borders of Mali and Burkina Faso, as well as Diffa Region in the southeast due to the ongoing risk of militancy. 4. Avoid nonessential travel to Agadez Region due to the presence of criminals and low presence of security forces in rural outlying areas. page 3 / 3 Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org).
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