LONDON IN SHORT

OUR VIEW OF : GENERAL ELECTION SPECIAL 8 MAY 2015 GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS | MAY 2015 2 CLEAR WIN FOR THE CONSERVATIVES NATIONALLY

A five year marriage of convenience has ended in the Political Composition of the Commons

most one sided divorce ever. The Conservatives defied the SEATS VOTE SHARE polls and all pre-election predictions to win a slim CONSERVATIVE overall majority. 331 36.9% (+0.8) LABOUR 232 30.4% (+1.5) Huge questions will be asked in the days and weeks ahead about the reliability of the polls LIB DEMS but this is a clear defeat for the Labour Party nationally – nearly wiped out in Scotland – and 8 7.9% (-15.2) a catastrophe for the Lib Dems. The Conservatives will be able to form the next Government GREEN 1 3.8% (+2.8) quickly but of course with a majority of just 12 they will still be in for a challenging time managing internal party discipline and we can expect for them to look for some support UKIP 1 12.6% (+9.5) from other parties. So although the country has avoided the uncertainty of weeks of political OTHERS 77 8.4% wrangling, we are still probably looking ahead to tense times in the House of Commons.

By 12.30pm today we had already seen three party leaders resign – , and Nigel Farage. Ed Miliband’s Labour party had a net loss of 26 seats nationally (it won 22 seats but lost 48). The biggest losses were in Scotland where 40 Labour MPs were defeated and now only one remains. Crucially Labour failed to make any real impression in the key Conservative/Labour margins in . The Lib Dems lost 49 out of 57 constituencies and saw their vote share plummet to 7.8%. Nearly all of the Lib Dem hierarchy lost their seats and the party now has just one MP in Scotland, one in London and six across the rest of England and Wales. The SNP cut a swathe through Scotland winning 56 out of 59 constituencies and achieving quite staggering swings from Labour and the Lib Dems. Nicola Sturgeon will no doubt feel empowered to push for further devolution, if not another independence referendum, over the next five years.

UKIP’s leader Nigel Farage failed to win South Thanet, leading him to make good on his promise to stand down as leader, and Mark Reckless lost his seat Rochester and Stroud. Douglas Carswell retained Clacton and is the party’s only MP. They did win 12.6% of the national vote share so will be bitterly disappointed to have but a single MP, especially when the SNP’s 4.7% nationally yielded so many.

The Greens remain with one MP after Caroline Lucas held her seat in Brighton but will also have been disappointed overall with just a 2.8% increase in their vote share from 2010.

Robert Gordon Clark Executive Chairman London Communications Agency

London Communications Agency GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS | MAY 2015 3 THE STORY IN LONDON

The story in London is dominated by two themes – London seats in the Commons the continued progress of Labour, albeit with some SEATS VOTE SHARE significant pockets of Conservative resistance; and the near total collapse of the Lib Dem vote. CONSERVATIVE 27 (-1) 35% (no change) LABOUR 45 (+7) 44% (+7%) Labour did make gains in London, winning seven seats. Four were won from the LIB DEMS 1 (-6) 8% (-14%) Conservatives (Brentford & Isleworth, Ealing & Acton Central, Enfield North and Ilford North) but all with majorities of less than 1,100. Three were won from the Lib Dems ( GREEN 0 5% (+3%) & Old Southwark, Brent Central and Hornsey & Wood Green) with huge swings away from the incumbent. UKIP 0 8% (+6%) OTHERS 0 1% (-2%) The Conservatives end the night just one seat down in London, as their four losses to Labour were offset by three gains from the Lib Dems in the South West of London (Kingston, Twickenham and Sutton & Cheam). The party will also have been delighted to hold off Labour in Battersea, Croydon Central, Finchley & Golders Green, Hendon and Harrow East – all Labour targets.

So we saw variation across London – best demonstrated by Matthew Offord comfortably holding Hendon from the challenge of despite defending a majority of only 106; while Labour’s win in Ilford North saw the party overturning a majority of 5,404. Meanwhile the Lib Dems are left with just one seat in London, & Wallington represented by Tom Brake with a majority of only 1,500. The party lost famous names in London with heavy defeats for and in Kingston and Twickenham respectively to the Tories and for Simon Hughes to Labour in Bermondsey.

UKIP and the Greens both failed to win a seat but the former will have been happy to get second place in five London constituencies, particularly Dagenham & Rainham where they increased their vote share by over 25%. The Greens will have been disappointed to not make second in any seats, particularly in Holborn & Pancras where party leader Natalie Bennett was 5,000 votes behind the second placed Conservative.

So the overall picture in London is now as shown in our table to the right and map on page 5. These demonstrate that London has once again returned to two party politics from a representative if not vote share perspective.

Helen Haxell Research Manager London Communications Agency

London Communications Agency GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS | MAY 2015 4 SO HOW DID WE DO?

In summary we did OK. We correctly said that Labour would hold all of their current seats and we said the party would win eight more seats when they actually gained seven. We also got a number of close calls right – specifically Labour holding Hampstead & Kilburn, winning Ealing & Acton Central by only 274 and Brentford & Isleworth by 465 and the Conservatives holding Battersea and Finchley & Golders Green.

However, we did not predict the scale of the Lib Dem collapse. We thought that high profile politicians would cling on in the South West and Bermondsey & Old Southwark. And we thought the Tories would lose six seats to Labour when in fact they only lost four.

In total, we were right in 65 out of the 73 London seats – so that’s eight £100 cheques to charity we shall be writing!

The next battle in London

Thoughts in London will now turn to the Mayoral Election in May 2016 and before that the selection of the party candidates.

The most interesting by far is now the Labour selection, although we suspect Labour’s previously published timetable may well be pushed back to accommodate the Party Leadership contest first. It seems a near certainty that will now declare himself a candidate and that key battle will be Sadiq ‘v’ ‘v’ ‘v’ .

Meanwhile with Cameron staying as prime minister, Boris Johnson will, we think, be left to continue in the mayoralty right through to next May alongside his new position as MP for Uxbridge. However we hear that he will remain as a backbencher for the next 12 months to see out his mayoral term. It was notable to see a large part of Boris’ acceptance speech dedicated to fighting a third runway at Heathrow.

Watch out for LCA’s in-depth coverage of the Mayoral contest and the elections over the next 12 months.

Chris Madel Board Director London Communications Agency

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PRE 7 MAY 2015 RESULTS

Labour...... 38 Labour...... 45 (+7)

Conservative...... 28 Conservative...... 27 (-1)

Liberal Democrat...... 7 Liberal Democrat...... 1 (-6)

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INTERESTING SEATS IN THE CAPITAL

BARKING BRENT CENTRAL CROYDON CENTRAL LAB HOLD MAJ: 15,272 LAB GAIN MAJ: 19,649 CON HOLD MAJ: 165 Margaret Hodge held the East London The seat vacated by Liberal Democrat Sarah Former Croydon councillor Gavin Barwell just seat comfortably but her majority was Teather was captured by former Brent South held on in this South London marginal with a reduced by 1,283 compared with her 2010 MP who lost to Teather in 2010. slender majority after a protracted recount. General Election result. However, her 57.7% This was another top Labour target and saw Labour candidate increased share of the vote was up by 3.7%. The UK the Liberal Democrats drop to third place her share of the vote by over 9% whilst UKIP Independence Party’s “2020 Vision”, where behind the Tories. The Greens came in fourth moved from sixth place in 2010 to third they seek to do well as runner-ups then just pipping the UK Independence Party. picking up 4,810 votes. The Lib Dems were capitalise on these votes at the next election, pushed into fifth place behind the Greens. was apparent in Barking rising from fifth BRENTFORD AND ISLEWORTH place to second with 9,554 votes. LAB GAIN MAJ: 465 DAGENHAM AND RAINHAM scraped past incumbent Mary LAB HOLD MAJ: 4,980 BATTERSEA Macleod with a slim majority after a keenly The past two elections saw CON HOLD MAJ: 7,938 fought local campaign. Cadbury’s popularity hold this traditional working class seat with Health minister Jane Ellison held on with a as a councillor in Hounslow and her former comfortable majorities. As predicted the surprisingly big majority in this key Labour role as deputy leader of the council would UK Independence Party’s vote share rose to target seat despite what was viewed as a have helped here. 29.8% (their best result in London) pushing good local campaign by Will Martindale. the Tories into third.The BNP, third place in Ellison actually increased her majority by CARSHALTON AND WALLINGTON 2010, dropped down to sixth with 151 votes. 1,961 votes. LIB DEM HOLD MAJ: 1,150 Tom Brake’s hard working local campaign EALING CENTRAL AND ACTON BERMONDSEY AND OLD SOUTHWARK preceded him and now he faces a LAB GAIN MAJ: 274 LAB GAIN MAJ: 4,489 parliamentary term as the only London Lib In a hard fought and close contest, the One of the most surprising scalps of the 2015 Dem MP on the Opposition benches. His Conservative incumbent Angie Bray lost her General Election, former Lib Dem mayoral majority was hit significantly seeing a loss seat to Labour’s by just 0.5% of candidate Simon Hughes lost to Labour’s of well over 3,500 compared with 2010. The the vote. Jon Ball, of the Liberal Democrats, by a significant margin. The local runner-up Conservative Matthew Maxwell came in third with a loss of 21.5% on 2010, Labour councillor’s convincing victory saw Scott’s share of the vote was 31.7% just 3.2% echoing the overall national picture. Turnout the popular stalwart MP gone after 32 years behind Brake. was high at 71.4%. as the Lib Dem vote crashed right across the country.

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party further to the right. Having ELTHAM today renewed his commitment to LAB HOLD MAJ: 2,693 moderate ‘One Nation’ principles, Labour’s triumphed for the fifth there will be internal party skirmishes LCA VIEW time in Eltham, with 18,393 votes and an on the horizon for Cameron - chiefly CONSERVATIVES increased majority. The Conservatives came to resist an English backlash against second with 15,700 and UKIP third with 6,481 the Scots, and keep Britain part of Nationally this was a very strong votes. The Liberal Democrats and Greens the EU. With only the continuity performance from the Conservatives ended up almost neck and neck for fourth of George Osborne in a major role who have clearly surpassed the place, with the former seeing a sizeable expectations of the pollsters and absolutely assured, the remaining cabinet positions are likely to be loss of 9.6% on 2010, mirroring the national pundits. Having not secured a picture. majority in the Commons since the ‘freshened up’ although the extent of this, at present, is unclear. 1992 elections, this is remarkable ENFIELD NORTH turnaround in fortunes for a party For the , Boris LAB GAIN MAJ: 1,086 expected, at best, to scrape together Johnson, the result will no doubt Labour’s Joan Ryan managed to re-gain some sort of feeble minority be a mixed blessing – in part due control from Conservative incumbent Nick government. A huge coup, too, for to his own campaigning efforts his de Bois, polling 20,172 votes to his 19,086. who has become party have secured a majority, but the first sitting Prime Minister since equally his chances of succeeding the UKIP’s Deborah Cairns came in at third to increase his parties’ Conservative leadership are, for the place, gathering 4,133 votes and increasing share of the vote – in his case by time being, on ice. Without a pressing the party’s vote share by 6.8%. The seat 0.8%, delivering an additional 23 need to abandon the mayoralty, Boris witnessed a relatively sizeable Liberal seats. remains likely now to see out his full Democrat loss of vote share - 9.9% on 2010. Governing with a tiny majority, term in City Hall, although it remains FINCHLEY AND GOLDERS GREEN Cameron will now enjoy a short to be seen whether he is offered any CON HOLD MAJ: 5,662 honeymoon period with his MPs, other ministerial roles in the first year initially grateful to have kept their of this Government. In a tightly fought battle with a high degree seats, before the real challenges of Sam Emery of public engagement – turnout was high this Parliament come to the fore. Account Manager at 70.5% - the Conservative incumbent Mike Without the moderating influence Freer comfortably held the seat, receiving of the Lib Dems in government and 25,835 votes (a 50.9% share), pushing the additional cushion of votes they Labour’s Sarah Sackman into second place, provided, with Scottish nationalism with 39.7%. growing and the European referendum looming, the Prime Minister will no longer be able to discount the voices of Redwood, Davis and Brady who will urge the

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HAMMERSMITH HARROW WEST LAB HOLD MAJ: 6,518 LAB HOLD MAJ: 2,208 LCA VIEW Labour‘s was comfortably Labour saw a relatively comfortable hold in LABOUR re-elected with 50% of the vote. The Harrow West, with Gareth Thomas receiving Conservatives’ Charlie Dewhirst came in at 21,885 votes and 47% of the vote. Hannah Needless to say today is not second place, while more broadly the Party David of the Conservatives came second, a fun day to be a Labour Party supporter. Despite Ed Miliband witnessed no shift in their vote share from with 19,677 votes. UKIP came in third ahead surprising his critics with a competent 2010. Once again, the Liberal Democrats saw of Liberal Democrats and the Greens. campaign and a clear narrative a reflection of their national loss on a local around the Coalition’s failure to HENDON level, with the Party almost reaching level address growing social and economic CON HOLD MAJ: 3,724 pegging with UKIP and the Greens for votes. inequalities, Labour’s performance Matthew Offord secured a significant and was the worst since 1987. Remember HAMPSTEAD AND KILBURN arguably surprising win for the Conservatives Clause 4 to release the grip of the LAB HOLD MAJ: 1,138 in London’s second most marginal seat prior unions? The modernisation of the ’s win ensured a Labour victory, to the election. In what was anticipated to be party led by John Smith and Neil and an increase in the size of the party’s a close fight, Offord defeated Labour rival Kinnock and taken over the line by majority (up from her predecessor Glenda Andrew Dismore by securing 49% of the vote. Blair, Brown and their disciples? Jackson’s 42). Yet the vote was close, with UKIP came third polling 2,595, followed by the Labour will now enter a new dark the Conservative candidate Simon Marcus Liberal Democrats on 1,088. Labour will have night of the soul to work out what it taking second place, with 42.3% of the vote been very disappointed not to have won this stands for today. compared with Siddiq’s 44.4%. The Liberal after high-profile visits from Ed Miliband and How can it appeal to voters in a Democrats came in third, again with a huge . radically different world of Scottish drop in vote share: 25.6% on the last election’s and to an extent English nationalism, result. HOLBORN AND ST PANCRAS in which it can no longer count on LAB HOLD MAJ: 17,048 the seats it previously relied on HARROW EAST Labour’s Kier Starmer stormed to victory north of the border? Will it seek the CON HOLD MAJ: 4,757 with 52.9% of the vote share in Holborn and centre ground again, or lurch/move Despite polls predicting a Labour gain, St Pancras, overshadowing the Green Party more aggressively to the left? Are Conservative Bob Blackman held the seat, Leader Natalie Bennett who came in at third such traditional demarcations still fending off stiff competition from Labour’s place with 7,013 behind the Conservatives. appropriate in a post-crash, pre EU Uma Kumaran. Blackman took 24,668 votes to Expect Starmer, the former Director of Public referendum world? A small crumb Kumaran’s 19,911. Prosecutions, to be a key figure in the new of comfort to be taken from today’s Labour opposition. result is that the party gained some further traction in London – as we predicted at LCA - meaning the Mayoral election in 2016 looks like Labour’s to lose. Matthew Neylan Director London Communications Agency GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS | MAY 2015 9

ignore to an extent in the Coalition, HORNSEY AND WOOD GREEN the Lib Dems tempering force would LAB GAIN MAJ: 11,058 be better realised. However it will The Labour candidate and former Islington frustrate Lib Dems that they have an Council leader gained one LCA VIEW inability in Parliament to stand up for of Labour’s key target seats unseating former LIB DEMS Europe, to shield the welfare budget, Liberal Democrat minister and London NHS spending and, possibly most of Labour lost the election; Lib Dems Assembly member who all, the lack of any force in the House lost their place as a force in British saw her vote share drop by 14.7%. Voter of Commons to defend the principles politics and any real footing in the turnout went up by a significant 4%, with of civil liberties. capital. It seems unfair that as David 72.9% of the electorate voting. Cameron takes centre stage alone, Turning to immediate issues for Nick Clegg must bow out. London, the defeats for Simon ILFORD NORTH Hughes and Vince Cable is a loss I don’t believe that this unforgiving LAB GAIN MAJ: 589 for all and in particular the capital. result reflects the Lib Dems secured an unexpected Perhaps there is a greater ability contribution to Government and the Labour gain with a strong 6% swing from the to action the recommendations of consensus already - the morning after Conservatives. Streeting, the former President the Davies Commission without Lib - is that history will be kinder. Yet of the National Union of Students, gained Dems and I’d say Caroline Pidgeon is there will be more hung parliaments still likely to be the London Mayoral 43.9% of the vote share, with previous Tory and there will be a need for future candidate, but I wouldn’t rule out incumbent Lee Scott on 42.7%. The Ilford coalitions, what does that mean someone like Lynne Featherstone North seat was 28th on Labour’s target list for the electoral position of smaller having a punt. and witnessed a fairly average turnout parties and minority partners who feel of 62.6%. a responsibility to participate in future Chris Oughton Account Manager Governments? KINGSTON AND SURBITON The party is still very relevant and CON GAIN MAJ: 2,834 rebuilding it is a challenge on the In one of the shock outcomes of the election, ground that Lib Dems will relish. In former Liberal Democrat Energy Secretary the capital look to Boroughs like Ed Davey lost his seat to Conservative James Richmond, Kingston, Sutton and Berry who narrowly won with 23,249 votes to Southwark and expect a steady Davey’s 20,415. Davey who has represented increase in council seats over the next the Kingston and Surbiton constituency few years. since 1997 had previously built up a robust Short-term, there is a leadership majority from what was one of the most election obviously but Cameron marginal seats in the country at that time. now has a very tight majority within which to work. Pulled to the right of the party, who he was able to

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RICHMOND PARK TWICKENHAM CON HOLD MAJ: 23,015 CON GAIN MAJ: 2,017 successfully defended his One of the unexpected results in London was seat from Liberal Democrat Robin Meltzer Liberal Democrat business secretary Vince who saw his party’s vote share drop by Cable losing to Conservative Tania Mathias. 23.5%. Following his re-election Goldsmith, The Tories had relatively low expectations an environmentalist, stated that he would of a gain here but like so many Lib Dem remain open to the possibility of defecting senior figures Cable couldn’t muster enough to another party if his Government were to personal support to stave off the tide against pursue the policy of Heathrow expansion. the Lib Dems nationally. Cable saw his vote As usual in , turnout was share fall by 16.3% in what was one of the high at 76.5%. highest turnouts in England at 77.3%

SUTTON AND CHEAM UXBRIDGE AND SOUTH RUISLIP CON GAIN MAJ: 3,921 CON HOLD MAJ: 10,695 Liberal Democrat Paul Burstow suffered a Boris Johnson secured the seat of Uxbridge surprise defeat losing his seat to Conservative and South Ruislip with a strong majority Paul Scully. Despite several polls indicating and will return to the House of Commons that Burstow would hold, the former health following a seven year absence. The Mayor minister who had served the constituency has promised to balance his duties between since 1997 witnessed a 12% fall in his vote the Commons and City Hall until his term share compared with 2010. ends next May.

TOOTING WESTMINSTER NORTH LAB HOLD MAJ: 2,842 LAB HOLD MAJ: 1,977 Shadow Secretary of State for Justice Sadiq returns to parliament for a Khan witnessed a slight increase in his fifth election, fending off Conservative majority in Tooting and a 3.7% rise in his vote competition from Lindsey Hall, who came share. Conservative candidate Dan Watkins second and UKIP slotted into third place. The came in a comfortable second with 41.9% of Liberal Democrats were pushed into fourth the votes ahead of the Greens. position, with a 10.2% decline in vote share from the previous election.

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OTHER LONDON SEATS

BECKENHAM: CON HOLD MAJ: 18,471 CITIES OF LONDON AND WESTMINSTER: FELTHAM AND HESTON: LAB HOLD MAJ: CON HOLD MAJ: 9,671 11,463

BETHNAL GREEN AND BOW:LAB HOLD MAJ: 32,387 CROYDON NORTH: LAB HOLD MAJ: 21,364 GREENWICH AND WOOLWICH: LAB HOLD MAJ: 11,946

BEXLEYHEATH AND CRAYFORD: CON HOLD CROYDON SOUTH: CON HOLD MAJ: 17,140 MAJ: 9,192 HACKNEY NORTH AND STOKE NEWINGTON: LAB HOLD MAJ: 24,016 DULWICH AND WEST NORWOOD: LAB HOLD BRENT NORTH: LAB HOLD MAJ: 10,834 MAJ: 16,122 HACKNEY SOUTH AND SHOREDITCH: LAB HOLD MAJ: 24,273 BROMLEY AND CHISLEHURST: CON HOLD EALING NORTH: LAB HOLD MAJ: 12,326 MAJ: 13,564 HAYES AND HARLINGTON: LAB HOLD MAJ: EALING SOUTHALL: LAB HOLD MAJ: 18,760 15,700 CAMBERWELL AND PECKHAM: LAB HOLD MAJ: 25,824 EAST HAM: LAB HOLD MAJ: 34,252 HORNCHURCH AND UPMINSTER: CON HOLD MAJ: 13,074 CHELSEA AND FULHAM: CON HOLD MAJ: 16,022 EDMONTON: LAB HOLD MAJ: 15,419 ILFORD SOUTH: LAB HOLD MAJ: 19,777

CHINGFORD AND WOODFORD GREEN: CON ENFIELD SOUTHGATE: CON HOLD MAJ: 4,753 HOLD MAJ: 8,386 ISLINGTON NORTH: LAB HOLD MAJ: 21,194

ERITH AND THAMESMEAD: LAB HOLD MAJ: CHIPPING BARNET: CON HOLD MAJ: 7,656 9,525 ISLINGTON SOUTH AND FINSBURY: LAB HOLD MAJ: 12,708

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KENSINGTON: CON HOLD MAJ: 7,361 ROMFORD: CON HOLD MAJ: 13,859

LEWISHAM DEPTFORD: LAB HOLD MAJ: RUISLIP, NORTHWOOD AND PINNER: CON 21,516 HOLD MAJ: 20,224

LEWISHAM EAST: LAB HOLD MAJ: 14,333 STREATHAM: LAB HOLD MAJ: 13,934

LEWISHAM WEST AND PENGE: LAB HOLD TOTTENHAM: LAB HOLD MAJ: 23, 564 MAJ: 12,714

VAUXHALL: LAB HOLD MAJ: 12,708 LEYTON AND WANSTEAD: LAB HOLD MAJ: 14,919 WALTHAMSTOW: LAB HOLD MAJ: 23,195

MITCHAM AND MORDEN: LAB HOLD MAJ: 16,922 WEST HAM: LAB HOLD MAJ: 27,986

OLD BEXLEY AND SIDCUP: CON HOLD MAJ: WIMBLEDON: CON HOLD MAJ: 12,619 15,803

ORPINGTON: CON HOLD MAJ: 19,979

POPLAR AND LIMEHOUSE: LAB HOLD MAJ: 16,924

PUTNEY: CON HOLD MAJ: 10,180

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LCA Editor Chris Madel

LCA Contributors Charlotte Woods Davina Cameron-Gale Helen Haxell

LCA Graphic Designer Shelley Pestaina

This document is published for general information only. Its contents should not be used as a basis for entering into any commitments without seeking qualified professional advice. Facts have been rigorously checked but London Communications Agency takes no responsibility for any damage or loss suffered as a result of any inadvertent inaccuracy or incorrectness contained in this document. May 2015. If you would like to know more about anything covered in this special edition of LDN or if you would like to know more about LCA please contact Helen Haxell on 020 7612 8495 or [email protected]. We strive for balance and accuracy at all times; however, if you feel we have made a mistake, omission or have misrepresented a story or issue please alert the team by contacting Helen using the details above.

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