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Toronto Ward IVR Poll Draft Research Report Ward-By-Ward Presented To

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Toronto Ward IVR Poll Draft Research Report Ward-By-Ward Presented To ! ! ! ! Toronto Ward IVR Poll Draft Research Report Ward-By-Ward Presented to: Reno Associates Presented by: Forum Research Inc September 16, 2011 ! ! ! ! ! ! Toronto IVR Poll Report September 16, 2011 Introduction The Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE) Local 79 is interested in understanding Toronto residentsʼ opinions of Mayor Rob Ford, and how they think their local councilor should vote on important issues. Residents were interviewed in every ward in the city, in sample sizes robust enough to yield statistically significant results on a ward-by-ward basis. This document reports on findings for the 44 wards in the City of Toronto. Findings for the city as a whole are presented under separate cover. Methodology 12,848 residents of Toronto 18 years of age and older were interviewed on Tuesday, September 13, using a random dial Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system. The margin of error on a sample of this size is plus or minus 0.9%, 19 out of 20 times asking. In other words, if you asked all the adult residents of Toronto the same questions, their answers would be within 1% of those shown here, 95% of the time. Margins of error on individual ward sample sizes are shown below: n=100 MoE of plus or minus 10%, 19 out of 20 times n=150 MoE of plus or minus 8%, 19 out of 20 times n=200 MoE of plus or minus 7%, 19 out of 20 times n=250 MoE of plus or minus 6%, 19 out of 20 times n=300 MoE of plus or minus 6%, 19 out of 20 times n=400 MoE of plus or minus 5%, 19 out of 20 times ! ! ! ! ! ! Ranking Of Wards By Support For Rob Ford Using the metric of percentage who will vote for Rob Ford in the next election, we have ranked Torontoʼs wards by their support for the mayor. Those wards where 30% or more said they would vote for the mayor are described as “Ford Wards”, those where between 20% and 29% would vote Ford are designated “Neutral Wards” and those where the mayor scored below 20% are grouped under “Non-Ford Ward”. Ford Wards Ward 1, Vincent Crisanti (48%) Ward 2, Doug Ford (45%) Ward 7, Giorgio Mammoliti (44%) Ward 39, Mike Del Grande (42%) Ward 3, Doug Holyday (39%) Ward 4, Gloria Lindsay Luby (39%) Ward 41, Chin Lee (38%) Ward 10, James Pasternak (38%) Ward 5, Peter Milczyn (36%) Ward 35, Michelle Berardinetti (34%) Ward 9, Maria Augimeri (34%) Ward 37, Michael Thompson (34%) Ward 42, Raymond Cho (34%) Ward 23, John Filion (34%) Ward 6, Mark Grimes (33%) Ward 8, Anthony Perruzza (32%) Ward 11, Frances Nunziata (32%) Ward 12, Frank Di Giorgio (32%) Ward 40, Norm Kelly (32%) Ward 34, Denzil Minnan-Wong (32%) Ward 15, Josh Colle (31%) Ward 43, Paul Ainslie (31%) Ward 36, Gary Crawford (30%) Ward 44, Ron Moeser (30%) ! ! ! ! ! ! Neutral Wards Ward 24, David Shiner (29%) Ward 38, Glenn De Baeremaeker (29%) Ward 33, Shelley Carroll (28%) Ward 25, Jaye Robinson (25%) Ward 16, Karen Stintz (24%) Ward 31, Janet Davis (23%) Ward 26, John Parker (22%) Ward 13, Sarah Doucette (20%) Ward 17, Cesar Palacio (20%) Non-Ford Wards Ward 21, Joe Mihevc (19%) Ward 27, Kristyn Wong-Tam (18%) Ward 29, Mary Fragedakis (17%) Ward 22, Josh Matlow (17%) Ward 18, Ana Bailao (15%) Ward 20, Adam Vaughan (14%) Ward 14, Gord Perks (14%) Ward 32, Mary-Margaret McMahon (14%) Ward 28, Pam McConnell (13%) Ward 30, Paula Fletcher (13%) Ward 19, Mike Layton (8%) ! ! ! ! ! ! Among Toronto residents, 4-in-10 claim they voted for Rob Ford (39%), one quarter voted for George Smitherman (28%), one tenth voted for Joe Pantalone (12%) and about 1-in-7 didnʼt vote (15%). Opinions of Rob Ford are three times more likely to have grown worse since the municipal election (54%) than they are to have improved (17%), while about 3-in-10 say their opinion hasnʼt changed (29%). Six-in-ten Toronto voters would not vote for Rob Ford if the election were held tomorrow (60%), while one quarter would (27%). ! ! ! ! ! ! Three quarters of residents of Toronto agree a local councillor should vote to protect city services even if it conflicts with the wishes of the mayor (77%), and the majority use the strongest terms (“strongly agree” - 59%). ! ! ! ! ! ! Voters in Ward 1 are more likely to have voted for Rob Ford than the city as a whole (54%) and are more likely to say their opinion of him has improved (29%) and less likely to say their opinion has grown worse (40%). Close to one half of Ward 1 voters would vote for Rob Ford again (48%), but a similar three quarters agree the councillorʼs duty is to city services, not the mayor (77%). ! ! ! ! ! ! Two thirds of voters in Ward 2 (the mayorʼs old ward) voted for him (64%), but just one quarter say their opinion of him has improved (24%), compared to 4-in-10 who say it has gotten worse (39%). Fewer than half the voters in his old ward will vote for him for mayor next time (45%), and two thirds believe councillors owe their first duty to the community, not the mayor (65%). ! ! ! ! ! ! Voters in Wars 3 are more likely to have voted for Rob Ford than the city as a whole (48%) and are less likely to say their opinion of him has grown worse (42%). They are more likely to say they will vote for Ford next time (39%), but not much more or less likely to say they agree councillors should protect city services first (74%) ! ! ! ! ! ! Voters in Ward 4 are much more likely to say they voted for Rob Ford (54%) than is the city as a whole, and are less likely to say their opinion of him has grown worse (44%). They are more likely to say they will vote for Rob Ford next time 39%) and are less likely to think a councillorʼs first duty is to the community, not the mayor (69%). ! ! ! ! ! ! Voters in Ward 5 are slightly more likely to have voted for the mayor (42%) and are very slightly more likely to say their opinion of him has improved (23%) than is the city at large, although nearly half say their opinion has grown worse (48%). More voters in this ward than citywide will vote for the mayor in the next election (38%), but they are just as likely to say a councillor owes his or her duty to the community (76%). ! ! ! ! ! ! Voters in Ward 6 are more likely to have voted Ford than the city as a whole (44%), but are less likely to say their opinion of the mayor has improved since then (14%). They are slightly more likely than all Torontonians to say they will vote for Ford next time (33%), and are slightly more likely to think a councillorʼs duty is to the community rather than the mayor (80%). ! ! ! ! ! ! Residents of Ward 7 are more likely than the city as a whole to have voted for Rob Ford (45%), and are twice as likely to say their opinion of him has improved (32%). Close to half will vote for the mayor next time (44%), but three quarters agree the councillor owes his community his loyalty (75%). ! ! ! ! ! ! Voters in Ward 8 are about as likely as those citywide to have voted for Rob Ford (40%) and they are more likely to say their opinion of the mayor has improved (26%). One third would vote for Rob Ford again (32%) and three quarters believe councillors owe their duty to the community over the mayor (72%). ! ! ! ! ! ! Voters in Ward 9 are more likely than the city as a whole to have voted for Rob Ford (45%) and are slightly less likely to say their opinion of him has grown worse (45%). They are somewhat more likely than the city at large to say they will vote again for Mr. Ford (34%) but are similar to everyone else in their belief the local councillor owes loyalty to the community over the mayor (79%). ! ! ! ! ! ! Voters in Ward 10 are more likely than the city to have voted Ford (50%), and are less likely to say their opinion of him has grown worse (47%). More would vote for him next time than citywide (38%), but residents are equally likely to believe the councillorʼs duty is to the community over the mayor (73%). ! ! ! ! ! ! Voters in Ward 11 are slightly more likely than elsewhere to have voted for Rob Ford (42%), but are no more likely to say their opinion of him has improved (15%). They are slightly more likely than the city to say they ill vote Ford next time (32%), and are equally likely to hold their councillor responsible to the community (75%). ! ! ! ! ! ! Voters in Ward 12 are just as likely as those across the city to have voted Ford (39%) and are just about as likely to say their opinion of him has grown worse (49%). They are slightly more likely than the city to say they will vote Ford next time (32%), and are equally likely to hold their councillor responsible to the community before the mayor (73%). ! ! ! ! ! ! Voters in Ward 13 are much less likely than the city at large to have voted for Ford (24%), and are less likely to say their opinion of him has improved (12%). They are also less likely to vote Ford next time (20%) and much more likely to rely on their councillor to put the community first over the mayor (84%). ! ! ! ! ! ! Voters in Ward 14 are much less likely to have voted Ford than the city (21%), are less likely have an improved opinion (12%), are less likely to vote Ford next time (14%) and are more likely to rely on their councillorʼs loyalty to the community rather than the mayor (85%).
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