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Changes in the Spatial Development of Flood Hazard Areas in Poland Between 1990 and 2018 in the Light of Legal Conditions

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Changes in the Spatial Development of Flood Hazard Areas in Poland Between 1990 and 2018 in the Light of Legal Conditions Land Use Policy 102 (2021) 105274 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Land Use Policy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/landusepol Changes in the spatial development of flood hazard areas in Poland between 1990 and 2018 in the light of legal conditions Marta Borowska-Stefanska´ a,*, Sławomir Kobojek a, Michał Kowalski a, Marek Lewicki b, Przemysław Tomalski a, Szymon Wi´sniewski a a University of Lodz, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Poland b University of Lodz, Faculty of Law and Administration, Poland ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Keywords: The study presented herein focuses on determining the relationship between changes in the scale of economic Flood hazard areas losses between 1990–2018 which occurred in areas of high (10 %) and medium (1%) probability of flood Floods occurrence as well as floodhazard areas due to the destruction of a stopbank, and changes in legislation affecting Flood plain legislation the spatial development of such areas within the said period. The analysis of changes in the development of flood Spatial development hazard areas was conducted by means of the Corine Land Cover database. The results of the analysis were later Poland used to evaluate potential economic losses on flood plains, and then spatiotemporal analysis was applied to identify areas with clusters of high and low loss values and the trends regarding their transformations. In consequence, the identification of municipality (Polish: gmina) clusters allowed us to verify the dependence of such transformations on those factors that could impact their intensity. For that purpose, we analysed the coverage of local spatial development plans for individual clusters. On the basis of the conducted studies, we concluded that the implemented legal solutions are not entirely effective, which has also been stated by the legislator. Nevertheless, the introduced legislative changes were beneficial,as the example of Poland shows. The implementation of the Floods Directive has, to a certain degree, decelerated the process of land use and its development in flood hazard areas. 1. Introduction likelihood of the overuse of land in flood-prone areas’ (Ran and Nedovic-Budic, 2016, p. 68). Flooding is defined as a ‘temporary covering of land by water as a Currently, appropriate spatial development plays a key role in flood result of surface waters escaping from their normal confinesor as a result protection (Rotko, 2005), as it lowers floodrisk and mitigates the effects of heavy precipitation’ (Kron, 2002). Each year, floods cause consider­ of the disaster once it has occurred (Głosinska,´ 2014; Ka´zmierczak and able damage all over the world, especially in densely populated and Cavan, 2011; Risti´c et al., 2012; Wheater and Evans, 2009). Adminis­ intensely developed areas (Dutta et al., 2003; Jonkman et al., 2008; trative restrictions for flood plains include: construction bans in flood Kang et al., 2005). Recent decades in Europe have seen severe floodsin zones, obligatory removal of any residential development and infra­ 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, structure from flood plains, and controlled development of urban areas 2012, 2013, and 2015 (Heintz et al., 2012; Schindler et al., 2016). These (Risti´c et al., 2012). have struck in a range of forms, on various scales, in locations of degrees This study focuses on determining the relationship between changes of vulnerability and with substantially different effects (Jonkman and in the scale of physical damage between 1990–2018 which occurred in Vrijling, 2008). Scientists believe that ongoing climate changes will areas of high (10 %) and medium (1%) probability of floodoccurrence, increase the frequency and scale of floods in the future (Dankers and including flood hazard areas due to the complete destruction of a stop­ Feyen, 2008). At the same time that the risk of devastating floodsgrows, bank, and changes in legislation determining spatial management of the demands for development continue and in some regions even in­ such areas within the said period. The successful accomplishment of the crease. Population growth, particularly in urban areas, is increasing the research objective required completion of two auxiliary goals: (1) the * Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (M. Borowska-Stefanska),´ [email protected] (S. Kobojek), [email protected] (M. Kowalski), [email protected] (M. Lewicki), [email protected] (P. Tomalski), [email protected] (S. Wi´sniewski). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.105274 Received 22 February 2020; Received in revised form 30 August 2020; Accepted 29 December 2020 Available online 24 January 2021 0264-8377/© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. M. Borowska-Stefanska´ et al. Land Use Policy 102 (2021) 105274 analysis of changes to national laws governing spatial development of that describe land-use properties of the basic spatial units incorporated flood hazard areas, and (2) a study into any changes of flood-related in the study against the time axis. The authors wish to emphasise the fact damage. The focus on legal factors stems primarily from their great that the article also takes into account hazard areas of various proba­ potential impact on the process of land development in flood hazard bility of flood occurrence, including territories outside stopbanks. The areas (which, to a certain extent, links them to factors related to land use input that the results of our study add to the existing pool of relevant and management). Moreover, this approach enables the authors to publications involves, above all, the presentation to the international determine the specific time when regulations were changed and there­ reader of the properties of the relationship between changes in material fore the correlation with the cost of flood-related damage (which is losses at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries observed in floodhazard considerably more difficult to capture in the case of environmental areas, and modifications of legislation that regulates land development factors that do not change so dynamically). Another factor that justifies in these areas - all in a country that faced a post-socialist legacy and the our scientific interest in legal aspects is the researched period challenges set by achieving EU standards with regard to spatial policy (1990–2018), during which Poland underwent a transformation from and environmental management. the outdated socialist economy to EU standards (adjustment of national regulations to the EU law), while witnessing a dynamic economic 2. Changes of land use and spatial planning as measures to growth that placed it among highly developed countries. The develop­ mitigate the effects of natural disasters ment path for Poland is also reflected in laws, including the law gov­ erning land development of flood hazard areas. Naturally, the authors Land-use change is one of the most controversial human activities recognise the changeability of other factors (e.g., environmental as­ (Brueckner, 2000),), as it often leads to climate change, which – in re­ pects) which can impact the intensity of spatial development in the turn – impacts the possibility of future land use and management (Dale, researched areas (global climate changes, current economic situation, 1997; Koomen and Stillwell, 2007; Watson et al., 2000). The analysis of etc.) and the value of potential damage however, these will only serve as land-use change allows us to both understand the ongoing spatial pro­ additional explanatory constituents in this study. In accordance with the cesses and facilitates the creation of maps for possible future land-use applied research procedure, the analysis of changes of value of damage configurations, thereby helping to make more conscious decisions in flood hazard areas between 1990 and 2018 and transformations (Costanza and Ruth, 1998; Koomen et al., 2008). There are numerous within the national legal system will be followed by the identificationof publications which focus on the issue of land-use change. In the book by municipality clusters characterised by specified spatiotemporal pat­ Briassoulis (2019), the author provides a review of the most commonly terns. For these clusters, a further study will be conducted, regarding applied models of land-use change, indicating that the discussed ana­ local laws (e.g., local spatial development plans) pursuant to national or lyses were conditioned mainly by having access to appropriate data­ European regulations. Here, the role of environmental or economic bases, which allow researchers to keep track of such changes. Another factors will also be taken into consideration, which – on a local scale – source that provides a review of studies on land-use change is a publi­ provides us with the opportunity to present the effects of the combina­ cation by Koomen et al. (2007). Common characteristics to distinguish tion of the aforementioned types of factors and to illustrate the results of between models include their temporal resolution (dynamic vs. static their cooccurrence in various proportions. models), spatial resolution (zones vs. grids), central objective (land use The scientificrationale behind the study was to determine the extent vs. land user), simulation approach (deterministic vs. probabilistic), to which the changes in land development of areas at immediate risk of simulation process (transformation vs. allocation) and level of integra­
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