Land Use Policy 102 (2021) 105274

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Land Use Policy

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Changes in the spatial development of flood hazard areas in Poland between 1990 and 2018 in the light of legal conditions

Marta Borowska-Stefanska´ a,*, Sławomir Kobojek a, Michał Kowalski a, Marek Lewicki b, Przemysław Tomalski a, Szymon Wi´sniewski a a University of Lodz, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Poland b University of Lodz, Faculty of Law and Administration, Poland

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

Keywords: The study presented herein focuses on determining the relationship between changes in the scale of economic Flood hazard areas losses between 1990–2018 which occurred in areas of high (10 %) and medium (1%) probability of flood Floods occurrence as well as floodhazard areas due to the destruction of a stopbank, and changes in legislation affecting Flood plain legislation the spatial development of such areas within the said period. The analysis of changes in the development of flood Spatial development hazard areas was conducted by means of the Corine Land Cover database. The results of the analysis were later Poland used to evaluate potential economic losses on flood plains, and then spatiotemporal analysis was applied to identify areas with clusters of high and low loss values and the trends regarding their transformations. In consequence, the identification of municipality (Polish: gmina) clusters allowed us to verify the dependence of such transformations on those factors that could impact their intensity. For that purpose, we analysed the coverage of local spatial development plans for individual clusters. On the basis of the conducted studies, we concluded that the implemented legal solutions are not entirely effective, which has also been stated by the legislator. Nevertheless, the introduced legislative changes were beneficial,as the example of Poland shows. The implementation of the Floods Directive has, to a certain degree, decelerated the process of land use and its development in flood hazard areas.

1. Introduction likelihood of the overuse of land in flood-prone areas’ (Ran and Nedovic-Budic, 2016, p. 68). Flooding is defined as a ‘temporary covering of land by water as a Currently, appropriate spatial development plays a key role in flood result of surface waters escaping from their normal confinesor as a result protection (Rotko, 2005), as it lowers floodrisk and mitigates the effects of heavy precipitation’ (Kron, 2002). Each year, floods cause consider­ of the disaster once it has occurred (Głosinska,´ 2014; Ka´zmierczak and able damage all over the world, especially in densely populated and Cavan, 2011; Risti´c et al., 2012; Wheater and Evans, 2009). Adminis­ intensely developed areas (Dutta et al., 2003; Jonkman et al., 2008; trative restrictions for flood plains include: construction bans in flood Kang et al., 2005). Recent decades in Europe have seen severe floodsin zones, obligatory removal of any residential development and infra­ 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, structure from floodplains, and controlled development of urban areas 2012, 2013, and 2015 (Heintz et al., 2012; Schindler et al., 2016). These (Risti´c et al., 2012). have struck in a range of forms, on various scales, in locations of degrees This study focuses on determining the relationship between changes of vulnerability and with substantially different effects (Jonkman and in the scale of physical damage between 1990–2018 which occurred in Vrijling, 2008). Scientists believe that ongoing climate changes will areas of high (10 %) and medium (1%) probability of floodoccurrence, increase the frequency and scale of floods in the future (Dankers and including flood hazard areas due to the complete destruction of a stop­ Feyen, 2008). At the same time that the risk of devastating floodsgrows, bank, and changes in legislation determining spatial management of the demands for development continue and in some regions even in­ such areas within the said period. The successful accomplishment of the crease. Population growth, particularly in urban areas, is increasing the research objective required completion of two auxiliary goals: (1) the

* Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (M. Borowska-Stefanska),´ [email protected] (S. Kobojek), [email protected] (M. Kowalski), [email protected] (M. Lewicki), [email protected] (P. Tomalski), [email protected] (S. Wi´sniewski). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.105274 Received 22 February 2020; Received in revised form 30 August 2020; Accepted 29 December 2020 Available online 24 January 2021 0264-8377/© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. M. Borowska-Stefanska´ et al. Land Use Policy 102 (2021) 105274 analysis of changes to national laws governing spatial development of that describe land-use properties of the basic spatial units incorporated flood hazard areas, and (2) a study into any changes of flood-related in the study against the time axis. The authors wish to emphasise the fact damage. The focus on legal factors stems primarily from their great that the article also takes into account hazard areas of various proba­ potential impact on the process of land development in flood hazard bility of flood occurrence, including territories outside stopbanks. The areas (which, to a certain extent, links them to factors related to land use input that the results of our study add to the existing pool of relevant and management). Moreover, this approach enables the authors to publications involves, above all, the presentation to the international determine the specific time when regulations were changed and there­ reader of the properties of the relationship between changes in material fore the correlation with the cost of flood-related damage (which is losses at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries observed in floodhazard considerably more difficult to capture in the case of environmental areas, and modifications of legislation that regulates land development factors that do not change so dynamically). Another factor that justifies in these areas - all in a country that faced a post-socialist legacy and the our scientific interest in legal aspects is the researched period challenges set by achieving EU standards with regard to spatial policy (1990–2018), during which Poland underwent a transformation from and environmental management. the outdated socialist economy to EU standards (adjustment of national regulations to the EU law), while witnessing a dynamic economic 2. Changes of land use and spatial planning as measures to growth that placed it among highly developed countries. The develop­ mitigate the effects of natural disasters ment path for Poland is also reflected in laws, including the law gov­ erning land development of flood hazard areas. Naturally, the authors Land-use change is one of the most controversial human activities recognise the changeability of other factors (e.g., environmental as­ (Brueckner, 2000),), as it often leads to climate change, which – in re­ pects) which can impact the intensity of spatial development in the turn – impacts the possibility of future land use and management (Dale, researched areas (global climate changes, current economic situation, 1997; Koomen and Stillwell, 2007; Watson et al., 2000). The analysis of etc.) and the value of potential damage however, these will only serve as land-use change allows us to both understand the ongoing spatial pro­ additional explanatory constituents in this study. In accordance with the cesses and facilitates the creation of maps for possible future land-use applied research procedure, the analysis of changes of value of damage configurations, thereby helping to make more conscious decisions in flood hazard areas between 1990 and 2018 and transformations (Costanza and Ruth, 1998; Koomen et al., 2008). There are numerous within the national legal system will be followed by the identificationof publications which focus on the issue of land-use change. In the book by municipality clusters characterised by specified spatiotemporal pat­ Briassoulis (2019), the author provides a review of the most commonly terns. For these clusters, a further study will be conducted, regarding applied models of land-use change, indicating that the discussed ana­ local laws (e.g., local spatial development plans) pursuant to national or lyses were conditioned mainly by having access to appropriate data­ European regulations. Here, the role of environmental or economic bases, which allow researchers to keep track of such changes. Another factors will also be taken into consideration, which – on a local scale – source that provides a review of studies on land-use change is a publi­ provides us with the opportunity to present the effects of the combina­ cation by Koomen et al. (2007). Common characteristics to distinguish tion of the aforementioned types of factors and to illustrate the results of between models include their temporal resolution (dynamic vs. static their cooccurrence in various proportions. models), spatial resolution (zones vs. grids), central objective (land use The scientificrationale behind the study was to determine the extent vs. land user), simulation approach (deterministic vs. probabilistic), to which the changes in land development of areas at immediate risk of simulation process (transformation vs. allocation) and level of integra­ floodingregistered in Poland since the late 20th century were impacted tion (sector-specific vs. integrated)’ (Koomen et al., 2008, p. 4). Simu­ by the relevant national and local legislation. A fact which justifiessuch lations of land-use changes constitute a vital ingredient of studies on analyses is the intensification of factors contributing to the global spatial planning, and are an important tool in mitigating losses caused occurrence of natural disasters in the most recent decades, combined by natural disasters. Unfortunately, many governments allowed land with the sudden legal and economic transformations in Eastern Euro­ development in disaster-prone areas (including flood hazard areas), pean countries, which – during the researched period – were obliged to ignoring the long-term sustainability of that development. In the late adapt their economy and adjust their legal systems to the requirements 20th century however, politicians eventually realised that the approach of the European Union. Poland, therefore, appears to be a perfect testing had to be changed in order to minimise susceptibility to natural disasters ground for such research, since it offers environmental conditions (Burby et al., 2000). According to Mileti (1999, p. 155–156), ‘no single characterised by spatial vastness and diversity of its geographical approach to bringing sustainable hazard mitigation into existence shows environment, and a particular geopolitical location, all of which have more promise at this time than increased use of sound and equitable impacted the discussed issue over the time covered in this research. land-use management’. In that matter, Agenda 21 (United Nations, The paper demonstrates multiple levels of innovativeness. In the 1992), appears to be a significant document, as it drew attention to an cognitive layer, it treats national and local provisions of law – usually issue that has already been emphasised more intensively, at least in quite difficult to quantify and measure – as a variable which plays the Western Europe – the need for greater environmental protection. role of an explanatory tool in the study. In addition, the conclusions are Partially owing to EU incentives, member state governments have begun presented in two spatial perspectives – nationwide, which takes into to tighten regulations for environmental protection, implementing so­ account modificationsof state acts and regulations, and features of land lutions to limit contamination, improve waste management and recy­ development aggregated to the national scale, and local, where the cling, and emphasise the need for environmental issues to be taken into analysis incorporates the legal effects of legislative initiatives taken by account in spatial planning (Larsson, 2006). Spatial planning is a tool for local authorities. In this regard, it is absolutely vital. In the paper, groups gathering and analysing information about the suitability for develop­ of municipalities that share similar spatiotemporal changes in flood ment of land exposed to natural hazards. However, restrictions hazard areas were distinguished, which allows local provisions of law to regarding land development in hazard areas must be comprehensible to be adjusted to the unique nature of these areas. This is particularly citizens, potential investors and public officials alike. When preparing important for cities which incorporate vast territories at risk of flooding spatial management plans, local authorities are attempting to work out a and experience immense urban-planning pressure, and where a con­ compromise between economic benefits from development and protec­ struction ban imposed on such areas (especially, territories of 1% tion of sensitive environmental systems (Burby et al., 2000). probability of floodoccurrence or located outside stopbanks) might not The enormous financial outlays allocated to mitigate flood-related be an entirely appropriate solution. damage means decisions taken in this regard depend on estimation of In the substantive layer, the innovative nature of the paper lies in the the cost of and the benefit from the action taken; especially when the implementation of variables – as part of the spatiotemporal analysis – budget is limited and under pressure. For economic reasons, the

2 M. Borowska-Stefanska´ et al. Land Use Policy 102 (2021) 105274 government should refrain from, for instance, erecting a stopbank if the to the mitigation of flood-relatedeffects in floodhazard areas (Howe and projected benefitsare outweighed by the incurred outlays. Therefore, an White, 2004; White and Richards, 2007), mainly through its impact on accurate estimation of potential damage is vital in flood risk manage­ the incidence of flooding and the consequential damage by regulating ment (Borowska-Stefanska,´ 2016a; Kang et al., 2005). There are various the locations of activities, types of land use, scales of development, and classificationsof flooddamage, depending on the applied criterion, and designs of physical structures (Neuvel and van der Knaap, 2010; White thus, it can be divided into two groups: physical damage – expressed in and Richards, 2007). Alas, numerous studies (Howe and White, 2004; monetary units, and non-physical damage – expressed in ‘natural units’, Neuvel and van den Brink, 2009; White and Richards, 2007; Wynn, e.g., numbers of fatalities. Moreover, flooddamage is also divided into: 2005) show that the relationship between planning systems and flood direct damage, a result of a direct impact on people, their property and risk management is weak and should be reinforced and better the environment, and indirect damage, a consequence of long-term ef­ coordinated. fects (Borowska-Stefanska,´ 2015a, a; Sowinski,´ 2008). Since direct Studies into the land use of flood plains and the assessment of po­ physical damage constitutes a substantial part of flood-related damage tential flood-induced damage have been conducted, inter alia, by (Borowska-Stefanska,´ 2016b; Głosinska,´ 2013; Smith and Ward, 1998), Amadio et al. (2016); Apel et al. (2009); Borowska-Stefanska´ (2015a); the vast majority of studies focus on its assessment (Merz and Thieken, Merz and Thieken (2004); Chen et al. (2016); Messner and Meyer 2004). Broadly speaking, the process of assessing direct physical damage (2006); Vojinovic et al. (2016); Vojtek and Vojtekova´ (2016); Bor­ consists of three stages: owska-Stefanska´ and Wi´sniewski (2018). However, the relevant literature lacks studies which present the 1) determination of flood characteristics; impact of legal instruments on land development in hazard areas of 2) assembling information on land use data and maximum damage various probability of flood occurrence, especially from the dynamic amounts; perspective. This is the reason behind the authors’ decision to focus on 3) application of stage-damage functions that relate the extent of eco­ this particular subject. nomic damage to the flood characteristics (Meyer and Messner, 2007; Pistrika and Jonkman, 2010). 3. Study area

In Poland, as much as 98.5 % of losses generated by natural disasters Poland is located in Central Europe, between the Carpathians and the are caused by floods, which shows its impact and importance Baltic Sea. The country’s almost entire territory (99.7 %) lies within the (Pajewska-Kwa´sny, 2012). One of the most common types of flood in Baltic basin and is predominantly drained by the Oder River (total Poland is a precipitation flood, and the most vulnerable voivodeships length: 854.3 km, in Poland: 742 km) and the Vistula River (total length: include Mazovia, Lesser Poland, Subcarpathia, Silesia, Opole, and Lower 1047 km). 33.9 % of Poland is within the drainage basin of the Oder, 54 Silesia (Borowska-Stefanska,´ 2015c, 2015b, 2015a). The characteristics % of the Vistula, and over 10 % within the drainages of rivers flowing of a floodin an assessment model can be determined by such properties from elevated lake districts straight to the Baltic Sea, or into the Stettin as the size of the floodedarea, water depth, flowspeed and the duration Bay and the Vistula Lagoon. of the flood itself (Messner and Meyer, 2006). However, it is the depth The two major drainage basins ‘overlap’ through a system of broad that remains most commonly applied (Penning-Rowsell et al., 2003). As latitudinal valleys called ice-marginal valleys. The network of main for the information on land use data, it is directly related to the scale of valleys has a lattice layout, most noticeable in the central and northern the research (Meyer and Messner, 2007). In this paper, the data referring territories of Poland. A distinctive feature of the two drainage basins is to the information on land use was aggregated into several forms, their asymmetry, manifested by the dominance of right-bank over left- following the computing guidelines, as presented in floodrisk maps. On bank tributaries, with the left-to-right-tributary ratios amounting to the basis of these listed elements, the extent of any potential physical 27:73 and 30:70 for the Vistula and the Oder respectively. Another damage is evaluated by means of stage-damage functions (absolute or representative property of the two basins is the diverse density of the relative values) (Messner and Meyer, 2006; Meyer and Messner, 2007). river network, which is particularly high in the Carpathians, in the Potential physical damage can be estimated only after we have taken eastern part of the Vistula Delta (Vistula basin), and in the western into account spatial management data, flood depth, and the value and territory of the Sudetes (Oder basin). When compared to the moun­ flood-related vulnerability of the analysed property (Buczek and tainous regions, the uplands – built of carbonate rocks – feature a Nachlik, 2011; Głosinska,´ 2013). On a global scale, flood damage network of rivers that is fourfold less dense (Dynowska, 1991; Fac-Be­ amounts to approximately 30 % of losses induced by natural disasters neda, 2017). (Majewski, 2004). The EU’s political response to this ever growing Floods are hydrological phenomena whose strength, extent and ef­ number of floods and the increasing scale of damage was the Floods fects stem from a number of environmental and socioeconomic condi­ Directive of 2007 (Głosinska,´ 2014; Heintz et al., 2012; Schindler et al., tions. Paleogeographic studies in the Vistula basin have shown that in 2016), which provides a comprehensive approach to solving the issue of the last 10,000 years there have been approximately 11 periods of elevated flood risk, and addresses the need to mitigate any potentially intensified river activity, manifested by increased frequency of cata­ negative effects of flood on health, the environment, cultural heritage strophic high-water phases. While more ancient ones were mainly trig­ and business activity (Głosinska,´ 2014). The introduction of the Floods gered by natural causes, related to climate fluctuationsin the Holocene, Directive by member states is a 5-stage process that entails an obligation the frequency and strength of floodsin phases recorded later (in the era to transpose and implement the directive, and to develop preliminary of mankind) have been influenced by human activity. Since historic flood risk assessments, update flood risk maps, flood hazard maps and times, human interference has had a direct or indirect impact on the flood risk management plans, including their promulgation (Bor­ functioning of the fluvialsystem in Poland. The direct influenceentails owska-Stefanska,´ 2014). The new approach to flood risk management disturbance of the natural water cycle and flow through deforestation, stipulated in these documents emphasises the importance of controlling grazing cattle, farming and husbandry, etc., while indirect forms of the hazard and lessening its effects on local communities, whereas the interference include construction of stopbanks, river engineering, traditional methods merely seek to control the hazard (Galloway, 2008). building artificialwater reservoirs and debris flowbarriers. Even though Sayers et al. (2002) defined risk-based flood management as a the indirect impact on river systems in Poland was initiated several whole-system approach that assesses and compares the structural and thousand years ago, upon the arrival of the first farmers in the early non-structural ways to pursue the optimal ameliorating effects (Ran and Neolithic (Starkel, 2001), it is the direct impact exerted in a few last Nedovic-Budic, 2016, p. 69). Spatial planning belongs to the centuries that has had the most negative and fateful effects. non-structural camp (Dawson et al., 2011), and is expected to contribute Since 1945, eleven major floodshave been reported in Poland (floods

3 M. Borowska-Stefanska´ et al. Land Use Policy 102 (2021) 105274 that caused losses exceeding 0.25 % of GDP), with two single episodes including islands and alluviums which are land lots or a service strip; (3) generating nationwide damage of over 2.8 billion euro (floods in 1997 floodhazard areas due to destruction or damage of a stopbank, a storm and 2010). From the perspective of individual municipalities and embankment, or a damming structure (Water Law Act of 20 July 2017, counties (especially in the south of Poland), such losses can be signifi­ 2018). cantly more severe, since they can amount to over 200 % of their budget This paper presents analyses of changes of spatial development and (Jokiel et al., 2017). The genesis of river floods vary substantially, and physical damage on flood plains between 1990–2018, conducted for their extent is influenced not only by precipitation, but also by geolog­ areas of medium (1%) and high (10 %) probability of flood occurrence ical conditions, topographical relief, and land use and development as well as for flood hazard areas due to the destruction of a stopbank. practices in a given location. Another important factor is the shape of the The data on flood hazard areas was retrieved from the National Water river network, with particularly vulnerable areas being those with a Management Authority – State Waters,1 which provides information on concentric layout and numerous watercourses of similar length that flow the extent of the floodand the size of the floodedarea, and on the flood into the main river a short distance apart (Smith and Ward, 1998). An water depth. example of this type is the area around Kłodzko in the Sudetes (south­ Although the territory of Poland contains nine officially distin­ west Poland), stricken by a catastrophic floodin 1997. Man-made dams guished catchment areas, flood hazard and risk maps have only been creating reservoirs on rivers can also impact the extent of the disaster, prepared for three of these, namely the catchment areas of the Oder, the which was the case in the 1982 floodingof the Vistula in Płock (Fig. 1) Vistula, and the Pregolya. As a result, our studies are based exclusively when the flowof the ice floewas blocked by the permanent ice sheet on on the maps generated for these three areas; available on the website of the Włocławek Reservoir and a simultaneous and abrupt drop in ambient the governmental institution in charge of waters in Poland (the ‘State temperatures. This resulted in the formation of an immense ice jam that Waters’ National Water Holding) under the following tab: hydroportal stretched towards Warsaw, flooding over 10 square kilometres of the (‘https://warszawa.wody.gov.pl/’). adjacent area (Jokiel and Bartnik, 2017). Our study into the changes of development in floodhazard areas was Floods in Poland are a relatively common occurrence, though limited conducted by means of the Corine Land Cover database, which contains to certain regions (Table 1). In just the second part of the 20th century, exceptionally useful information on land cover and use (Popovici et al., over 600 flooding episodes were reported in the country (Dobrowolski 2013). In Poland and other European states, the data is available free of et al., 2010), the various causes of which included ice or slush jams, charge (Borowska-Stefanska´ et al., 2018) for the years: 1990, 2000, snowmelts, storms, etc. However, the majority of floods (over 60 %) 2006, 2012, 2018 (the data can be accessed at ‘http://clc.gios.gov.pl/’). were triggered by precipitation, which could be frontal or torrential and The database contains information on land cover with three different could result in regional or local flooding (Byczkowski, 1996). On a projections that offer various levels of detail. At level one, there are 5 global scale, floods in Poland are not classified as catastrophic and can classes, and at levels two and three, 15 and 44 classes respectively. For be comparatively analysed via the Françou-Rodier flood index, calcu­ the purposes of historical assessment of physical damage, the data was lated on the basis of maximum flow and catchment area (Smith and processed to match land use classes specified in The Regulation of the Ward, 1998). Values above 6 describe rivers particularly prone to pro­ Minister of Environment, the Minister of Transport, Construction and Mari­ ducing great floods(e.g., the Amazon: 6.76; (Rodier and Roche, 1984)). time Economy, the Minister of Administration and Digital Affairs, and the Indexes above 4 indicate rivers capable of causing substantial regional Minister of Interior of 21 December 2012 on the Development of Flood or catastrophic local damage, while values below 2 refer to a low flood Hazard Maps and Flood Risk Maps (2013). hazard. In Poland, the greatest floodhazard is reported in large valleys Following this, changes in the development of floodhazard areas (for of the hydrological systems of the Vistula and the Oder (Fig. 1). The two all flooding scenarios) was assessed for the following periods: main rivers and their largest tributaries (for the Oder: the Warta, the 1990 2000, 2000 2006, 2006 2012, 2012 2018, and finally,for the Note´c, tributaries in the Sudetes; for the Vistula: Carpathian rivers, the entire period (1990–2018). Then, the calculations were used to evaluate Bug, the Narew, the Pilica and the Bzura) have long sections flowingin physical damage, and the results were presented for the country as a vast broad-bottomed valleys. Numerous major lowland valleys were whole. formed at various stages of the Pleistocene, by waters released from the The formulas applied in this paper to calculate the value of material melting continental ice field. The resultant sequences of massive geo­ losses were taken from The Regulation of the Minister of Environment, the morphologic forms are called ice-marginal valleys, these have now Minister of Transport, Construction and Maritime Economy, the Minister of become home to a dense concentration of settlements and are areas of Administration and Digital Affairs, and the Minister of Interior of 21 the highest flood hazard. The aforementioned observations are December 2012 on the Development of Flood Hazard Maps and Flood Risk confirmed by values of the Françou-Rodier index, which – for Poland – Maps (2013). However, all calculations were made by the authors range from slightly above 0–4.42, with the average of 2.37 (Jokiel et al., themselves since flood risk maps show material losses on a statistical 2017). Scores above 4 were reported for the Carpathian tributaries of the basis only. In order to analyse changes in land use, the authors used the Vistula (south and southeast Poland), while values below 2 were Corine Land Cover inventory, and the information on land cover was recorded for numerous lowland and lake-district rivers in central and adjusted to the guidelines contained in the aforementioned regulation. northern Poland. In accordance with the aforementioned The Regulation… of 21 December 2012, regarding the compilation of flood hazard maps and 4. Data and methods floodrisk maps for the purposes of assessing potential physical damage in floodhazard areas, the following areas of land use were distinguished: Polish Water Law definesflood-hazard areas as ‘locations determined by the initial flood-riskassessment to be at a significantrisk of flooding 1 residential areas, or where such risk is likely to occur’ (Water Law Act of 20 July 2017, 2 industrial areas, 2018). For such areas, flood hazard maps were prepared which show 3 transportation areas, (the data included in this study has been bolded): (1) areas of a low 4 forests and woodlands, probability of flood occurrence (0.2 %), or areas where extreme events 5 recreation and leisure areas, are probable; (2) areas of a significant flood hazard, i.e., areas of a 6 arable lands and permanent crops, medium probability of flood occurrence (1%), and areas of a high probability of flood occurrence (10 %) – part of water terrain with the 1% probability of a flood;areas between the shoreline and the stopbank 1 Panstwowe´ Gospodarstwo Wodne Wod´ Polskich (PGW WP) eng. the ‘State or a natural high bank into which a stopbank has been incorporated, Waters’ National Water Holding.

4 M. Borowska-Stefanska´ et al. Land Use Policy 102 (2021) 105274

Fig. 1. Areas of high probability of flood occurrence and flood hazard areas due to the destruction of a stopbank against the background of the settlement network and the administrative division of Poland Source: own study.

i = 1…9where: Table 1 Spi – stands for aggregate values of potential flood damage for a The size of flood hazard areas in Poland [ha]. given land use class, Flood hazard areas Size [ha] Spij – stands for aggregate values of potential flood damage for a ’ (% of the country s given land use class and a given range of water depth (Cf. Tables 2 and area) 3), 10 % (areas of high probability of river flood occurrence) 595993.9 (1.91) Ai – stands for the area taken by a given land use class. 1% (areas of medium probability of flood occurrence) 876701.8 (2.80) – – Areas with planning restrictions at risk of flooding due to 797477.58 (2.55) For three classes residential, industrial, and transportation areas destruction of a stopbank the finalvalue of potential flooddamage is calculated by comparing the value of property for a given land use class with the ratio describing the Source: own study based on the data from floodhazard and risk maps (PGWWP, degree of property damage in that class depending on the depth of flood 2019). water (loss function). Values of potential damage for residential, industrial, and trans­ 7 grasslands, portation areas are expressed as follows: 8 surface waters, 9 other areas. Spij = Wi ∙ f(hj)

The following formula is applied to assess aggregate values of po­ where: – tential flood damage for individual land use classes listed above: Spij stands for the values of potential damage for a given land use class and a given range of water depth, ∑4 W – stands for the value of property in a given land use class, Spi = Sp ∙ A i ij i – j=1 f(hj) stands for the value of loss function that relates flood water depth to property damage in a given land use class.

5 M. Borowska-Stefanska´ et al. Land Use Policy 102 (2021) 105274

Constant damage values are applied to recreation and leisure areas, Table 3 arable lands, permanent crops, regardless of water depth, since it has Property value for residential development and industrial areas by voivodeship. little or no impact on the degree of property damage. Damage values Voivodeship Property value in residential Property value in remain the same within the entire range of water depths – the value of areas [euro/m2]a industrial areas 2 the function f(hj) equals 1. For surface waters and other areas, damage [euro/m ] values are not calculated. The loss function is set for four ranges of water Lower Silesia 98.39 110.32 depth: ≤ 0.5 m; 0.5 m < h ≤ 2 m; 2 m < h ≤ 4 m; >4 m. Since these Kuyavia- 77.53 107.54 values are changeable for residential, industrial, and transportation Pomerania Lublin 38.34 118.60 areas, they were presented separately in Tables 2 and 3. Lubusz 64.38 148.98 For residential and industrial areas, The Regulation… of 21 December Łod´ ´z 67.79 193.21 2012 (2013) lists the applicable value of property by voivodeship, as Lesser Poland 84.84 141.36 presented in Table 32 . Masovia 118.75 219.92 For the remaining classes, calculations are provided in reference to Opole 61.95 110.52 Subcarpathia 46.89 149.44 the entire country and take the following values: Podlaskie 37.93 118.80 Pomerania 93.18 138.83 3 transportation areas – 10.16 euro/m2 3 . Silesia 130.26 128.08 ´ ę 4 forests and woodlands – 18.64 euro/ha. Swi tokrzyskie 46.86 125.29 Warmia-Masuria 47.39 117.61 5 recreation and leisure areas – 1.19 euro/m2. Greater Poland 84.02 163.69 6 arable areas and permanent crops – 332.74 euro/ha, West Pomerania 72.19 76.01 7 grasslands – 157.05 euro/ha a Euro exchange rate for 15/11/2019: 4.2916 (the National Bank of Poland). (The Regulation… of 21 December 2012, 2013; The Regulation of Source: The Regulation… of 21 December 2012 (2013). the Ministry of Maritime Economy and Inland Navigation of 4 October 2018 on the Development of Flood Hazard Maps and Flood regression models (Bechle et al., 2015; Kloog et al., 2012), cellular Rrisk Maps, 2018). automata (Rimal et al., 2017; Yang et al., 2012), entropy measures (Chen et al., 2017), spatial autocorrelation (Das and Ghosh, 2017) and Spatiotemporal analyses of changes in land development have been measures of trends of statistical significance. In our study the approach researched by a number of authors (Liu et al., 2014; Lu et al., 2013; to land-use changes is based on time intervals expressed in the form of a Singh et al., 2017; Weng, 2007). What differs them all is the fact that the spatiotemporal cube, and it makes use of cluster analysis and nonpara­ various scientists addressed different research questions. Some focused metric trend detection for a series of values against the background of on determining trends accompanying land-use changes in order to the time axis. A similar approach to the presentation and analysis of data facilitate prognostication (Rose et al., 2011; Saraswat et al., 2013; on the attributes of location and occurrence time has been applied, inter Smargiassi et al., 2012), while others aimed at assessing the frequency of alia, by: Gao (2015); Gomez´ et al. (2011); Xi et al. (2019); Xu et al. such phenomena as erosion that may pose a threat to successful land (2020) czy Kang et al. (2018). Although there is a wide variety of management (Iqbal and Khan, 2014), evaluating changes in the quality research issues that are analysed by aggregating variables into 3D basic of the natural environment related to human activity (Araki et al., 2018; fields(e.g., crime, road accidents, spatial mobility), the method is rarely Stafoggia et al., 2019; Zhang et al., 2018), or identifying spheres of applied to process land cover data. This paper proves the reasonability of spatial urbanisation (Feng and Chen, 2010; Huang et al., 2009; Weng, applying this approach to analyse the changeability of land use and 2007). development. There is a wide panoply of elements incorporated into spatiotem­ The data on the value of flood damage calculated for individual poral analyses including factors conditioning land management or being flooding scenarios and periods enabled us to conduct a spatiotemporal conditioned by them. Against such a vast spectrum of applications in analysis in order to identify clusters of high and low damage values and spatiotemporal studies, the application of legal aspects as factors trends regarding their transformations. For this purpose, a tool within impacting land development is by no means a common approach, and the ArcMap package was first used to generate a spatiotemporal cube. therefore, it renders this paper a valuable contribution to the existing The tool derives points (municipality centroids located in the area pool of publications. that incurred flooddamage) with time tags (year), thereby constructing Great diversity can also be observed among the tools used for ana­ a data cube (surface XY reflectsthe distribution of municipalities and the lyses of spatiotemporal changes in land use. Studies can be based on Y axis shows a year when damage was reported) by aggregating these points into specifiedspatiotemporal ranges (Shimazaki and Shinomoto, Table 2 2007). Within each range, a damage value for each hectare of flood Loss function for residential development, industrial, and transportation areas. hazard areas is determined (in all flooding scenarios) for a given Water depth h [m] Value of loss Value of loss Value of loss municipality. function f(h) [%] function f(h) function f(h) [%] for The Mann-Kendall trend test is applied to verify the importance of a for residential [%] for transportation areas given value trend for each time range in every single location (Hamed, areas industrial areas 2009). The analysis shows whether the events presented by input points ≤ 0.5 20 20 5 (flood damage in municipalities) increase or decrease in time to an < ≤ 0.5 h 2 35 40 10 extent that is statistically important. The Mann-Kendall trend test is 2 < h ≤ 4 60 60 10 performed for each location, with data as an independent test of time > 4 95 80 10 arrays (Kendall and Gibbons, 1990). The Mann-Kendall trend test is an … Source: The Regulation of 21 December 2012 (2013). analysis of rank correlation for numbers or values related to the researched areas and their time sequence (Mann, 1945). The damage value for the firstperiod is compared with the analogical value for the second one. If the former is lower than the latter, the 2 The analysis of physical damage, conducted through application of the same returned result equals +1. Analogically, if the former is larger than the ´ methodology can also be found in works by Borowska-Stefanska (2015a, latter, the result is -1. If both values are correlative, then the result is 0. 2016a). Results for each compared pair are summed. The expected total sum is 0, 3 Euro exchange rate for 15/11/2019: 4.2916 (the National Bank of Poland)

6 M. Borowska-Stefanska´ et al. Land Use Policy 102 (2021) 105274 which indicates a lack of value trend in time. On the basis of the variance and medium (1%) probability of flood occurrence (analyses were con­ of values in time arrays, and the number of correlations and periods, the ducted exclusively for the at-risk areas since only for them are there returned total sum is compared with the expected total sum (0) in order restrictions in spatial development in Poland, as explained hereafter). to determine whether the difference is statistically significant.For each Next, in order to present possible correlations, the results of the time array, the trend is written as a z-score and a p-value. A low p-value calculations were presented on the box plot (the box shows the range of indicates that the trend is statistically important (a p-value for the confidence span of arithmetic mean of 95 %, the line within the box observed trends, i.e., intensifying and diminishing clusters of damage denominates the average value, and the whisker one standard deviation generated by a flood of 10 % and 1% probability of occurrence, and above and below the average). Upon viewing the results, any further losses resulting from the destruction of a stopbank is lower than 0.1). analyses were abandoned, as it was concluded that there is no significant The z-score determines whether damage values are rising (a positive z- correlation between the type of cluster and changes in the way munic­ score) or decreasing (a negative z-score). ipalities within the cluster are covered by local spatial development The application of the tool allows us to identify, among other things, plans. In order to dynamically display changes in spatial development new, intensifying, diminishing or episodic clusters of high and low for individual floodhazard areas, we applied a simple bar graph, which damage values. The clusters themselves are identified by the Getis-Ord demonstrates percentage changes showing how the areas were covered Gi* statistic (Mitchell, 2005), which can – at various levels of signifi­ by land use classes on a period-to-period basis (for the years cance (the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic points to statistically significant clus­ 1990–2018). ters, i.e., it takes the confidencelevel of 99 %, 95 %, and 90 %) – identify Since there is a miscellany of various determinants that impact the ‘hot spots’ (clusters with high values of attribute) and ‘cold spots’ conduct of spatial development and its changes, we wanted to exclude (clusters with low values of attribute) (Getis and Ord, 1992). The the influence of law-related phenomena and referred the aforemen­ resultant z-scores and p-values tell us where features with either high or tioned trends to a test area that we demarked (an area which is free of low values cluster spatially (Goodchild, 1986). Thus, the p-value for legal restrictions and which, at the same time, lies adjacent to areas at identified clusters is within the range of 0.01 – 0.1. This tool works by risk of a ten- and one-hundred-year flood,i.e., floodhazard areas due to looking at each feature within the context of neighbouring features. A the destruction of a stopbank). This is a simple difference between the feature with a high value is interesting but may not be a statistically pace at which residential and industrial development occurs in the areas significant hot spot (Ord and Getis, 1995). To be a statistically signifi­ for which flood probability was calculated, and the analogical pace cant hot spot, a feature will have a high value and be surrounded by observed within the test area. other features with high values as well (Scott and Warmerdam, 2005). The local sum for a feature and its neighbours is compared propor­ 5. Results and discussion tionally to the sum of all features; when the local sum is very different from the expected local sum, and when that difference is too large to be 5.1. Changes to legislation between 1990 and 2018 with reference to the the result of random chance, a statistically significant z-score results spatial development of flood hazard areas (pro.arcgis.com). Taking into account the subject matter and the main objective of the The actual scale, intensity and implementation of spatial develop­ paper, we focused on identifying clusters that are persistent and ment within flood hazard areas is – to a large extent – determined by consecutive, on the one hand, and intensifying or diminishing on the mandatory provisions of law. Regardless of their individual wording in other. A consecutive hot spot is a location with a single uninterrupted various periods of history, all such provisions share a common denom­ run of statistically significant hot spot bins in the final time-step in­ inator – namely, they are intended to control and restrict human activity tervals. The location has never been a statistically significant hot spot in this matter, and are justifiedby an indisputable need to minimise the prior to the finalhot spot run and less than ninety percent of all bins are extent of flood-related damage. This section of the paper is aimed at statistically significant hot spots. An intensifying hot spot is a location presenting mandatory provisions, while demonstrating the evolution of that has been a statistically significanthot spot for ninety percent of the the model restricting spatial development within flood hazard areas in time-step intervals, including the final time step. In addition, the in­ the analysed period. The analysis here was limited exclusively to areas of tensity of clustering of high counts in each time step is increasing overall high (10 %) and medium (1%) probability of flood occurrence, and to and that increase is statistically significant. A persistent hot spot is a flood hazard areas due to the destruction of a stopbank. This is impor­ location that has been a statistically significant hot spot for ninety tant since, in Polish law, restrictions on spatial development of flood percent of the time-step intervals with no discernible trend indicating an hazard areas have not always been for precisely-defined territories on increase or decrease in the intensity of clustering over time. And a the basis of clearly stipulated criteria. Even more importantly is that diminishing hot spot is a location that has been a statistically significant during the analysed period such provisions of law were (and still are) hot spot for ninety percent of the time-step intervals, including the final stipulated primarily in acts that regulate and standardise water econ­ time step. In addition, the intensity of clustering in each time step is omy, and spatial planning and development (Table 4). For a clearer decreasing overall and that decrease is statistically significant (the presentation of the changes in the law in force in the period covered by ArcGIS 10.4 manual). Trends related to clusters of low damage values the study, a timeline with references in square brackets to the text of our (cold spots) should be understood analogically. analysis was drawn (Fig. 2). Identification of municipality clusters characterised by specific In the first decade of the analysed period (1990–2001), restrictions trends regarding the value of flood damage between 1990 and 2018 on the spatial development of flood hazard areas resulted mainly from made it possible to verify the correlation of such transformations with provisions contained within the Water Law Act of 24 October 1974, those factors that could impact their intensity. For this purpose, we which principally provided protection of the so-called inter-embank­ analysed changes in the way in which the municipalities classifiedby the ment zone (an area between the embankment and the river channel) [1]. aforementioned method were covered within local spatial development The zone was protected by statutory provisions against erecting any plans. On the basis of databases that contain the extent to which a given buildings and structures, any changes in the topographical relief, municipality is covered in local spatial development plans (the only installation of any devices, and performance of any works that could documentation in Poland that presents official ordinances), changes hinder flood protection within the area (art of 66). Importantly, it was were calculated for the years 2011 2017. The ordinances were down­ legally possible to obtain an exemption from the ban by way of an loaded from the official website of the Polish Central Statistical Office administrative decision issued by a competent local body based on art of (‘https://stat.gov.pl/’). However, it must be stated that the information 66 sec 3 of Water Law Act of 24 October 1974. The act also foresaw the there refers to entire municipalities, and not only to areas of high (10 %) possibility of expanding the said restrictions to legally protect bankless

7 M. Borowska-Stefanska´ et al. Land Use Policy 102 (2021) 105274

Table 4 Comparison of the regulations in force in the period under study.

Dates when Acts regulating Flood hazard areas as applied in Major restrictions on land use Acts regulating spatial Regulations concerning flood successive Water water the study, and the method of within flood hazard areas planning and hazard areas in planning Law Acts were in management determination development documentation force, including any substantial changes they contained

01/01/1990– 31/ Water Law Act of 1. The area between the flood 1. Even though land Spatial Planning Act of No regulations directly referring 12/2001 24 October 1974 embankment and the river development within the areas 12 July 1984 and Land to flood hazard areas and their (entered into force channel – determined was prohibited, an exemption Development Act of 7 registration within planning on 01/01/1975) statutorily was possible based on an July 1994 (entered into documentation. 2. Areas lacking embankment at administrative decision (Article force on 01/01/1995) risk of flooding– as determined 66, Section 3). by local planning regulations 2. The instrument regulating restrictions on land development in these areas remained unused due to a lack of a dedicated regulation from the Council of Ministers on the principles, procedure, manner and the competent bodies authorised to implement such restrictions. 01/01/2002– 29/ Water Law Act of Flood hazard areas included: Spatial Planning and 07/2005 18 July 2001 1. areas at imminent risk of Land Development Act Obligatory inclusion of such flooding, Pursuant to Article 83, Section of 27 March 2003 areas when compiling planning 2. areas at potential risk of 1, any works or activities that (entered into force on documentation. flooding. could impede flood control and 11/07/2003) The flood control study protection were prohibited suggested a division into: within hazard areas at imminent 1) areas that required flood risk of flooding. At the same protection in view of their time, the Act provided for development, and economic exemption from the ban based and cultural value; on an administrative decision 2) areas where floodwaters are granted by a local to be channelled and drained administration body, which was (areas at imminent risk of also authorised to determine (by The obligation to register in 30/07/2005 – 17/ (entered into force flooding); another administrative planning documentation was 03/2011 on 01/01/2002) 3) areas at potential risk of decision) the manner in which a preserved. flooding. given land was to be cultivated The determination of areas at and developed, including potential risk of flooding no allowable types of crops, longer required a dedicated pursuant to flood control regulation to be issued by the requirements (Article 83, minister. They only had to be Section 2). determined in the flood control study. A different terminology came Statutory bans imposed by the into use, compliant with flood previous Act were kept in force hazard maps, with a division for areas at imminent risk of into: flooding. The head of the local water management body gained 1) areas of low probability of a authority to implement these flood (once in 500 years), or bans for areas at potential risk of where there is a probability of a flooding, stipulated in the flood Initially, flood hazard areas had natural disaster; control study if such bans were to be obligatorily incorporated in 2) areas at high risk of flooding; well justified for reasons of the planning documentation, but 3) areas within territories at risk safety of people and property from 31 December 2015 this of flooding if: (Article 83, Section 2). became non-mandatory. At the 18/03/2011– 31/ The expansion of the system of same time, pursuant to Spatial 12/2017 studies aimed at facilitating the Planning and Land Development a) waters overflow the levee process of flood protection Act of 27 March 2003, it was (and crown; decision-making did not result still is) mandatory to incorporate b) a levee is damaged or in substantial changes in the areas at high risk of flooding in destroyed; model and the content of local spatial development plans. c) damming structures are statutory restrictions of land damaged or destroyed; development within flood d) the protective structure of hazard areas. Bans focused the service strip is damaged or primarily on areas at imminent destroyed. risks of flooding, and the new regulations also provided for exemptions. Water Law Act of In order to obtain a building It is mandatory to incorporate The new act did not implement Spatial Planning and 01/01/2018 20 July 2017 permit for areas listed in local areas at high risk of flooding in any substantial changes to Land Development Act –present day (entered into force plans as being at high risk of planning documentation. existing regulations, principles of 27 March 2003 on 01/01/2018) flooding, the investor is no Importantly, State Waters is (continued on next page)

8 M. Borowska-Stefanska´ et al. Land Use Policy 102 (2021) 105274

Table 4 (continued )

Dates when Acts regulating Flood hazard areas as applied in Major restrictions on land use Acts regulating spatial Regulations concerning flood successive Water water the study, and the method of within flood hazard areas planning and hazard areas in planning Law Acts were in management determination development documentation force, including any substantial changes they contained

and methods of determining longer obligated to obtain (entered into force on authorised to a substantial extent flood hazard areas. separate consent from a local 11/07/2003) to regulate the manner of land water management authority. use and development in such For areas not listed within local areas. plans, the investor is obliged to obtain a decision on land development and management conditions, which must be agreed with a water management body (an official representative of ‘State Waters’). The consultation takes the form of a decision in which a local water management body stipulates the requirements and conditions for the projected construction development and land use.

Source: own study.

Fig. 2. Entry into force of significantchanges in the Polish legislation related to reference to the spatial development of floodhazard areas (blue colour - the period of analysed changes in development) Source: own study (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article). flood hazard areas through regulation imposed by an appropriate local provisions did not explicitly cover such areas. Here, we need to administrative authority (such a regulation would have the status of a emphasise that due to the non-mandatory nature of local plans and the local law). It should be emphasised, however, that at that time there lack of an unambiguous legal obligation for flood hazard areas to be were no legally binding prerequisites for recognising a given territory as incorporated, the officially accepted plans often contained no mention a flood hazard area, and the aforementioned law-making competences of the at risk areas, and even if they did, no special restrictions in land were applied relatively rarely. Moreover, lack of secondary (executive) use were implemented for those areas. legislation to the act also rendered it legally impossible to impose these The Water Law Act of 18 July 2001 that entered into force on the 1st statutory obligations on spatial development and other restrictions of January 2002 did implement several significant amendments to the related to land use, which were requisite for protection of waters and its legal model regulating spatial development of the analysed areas, with regulated use, and protection of people and their property against the goal of their protection against floodand its effects [4]. Imprimis, it flooding (art of 58 sec.1). Undoubtedly, this was an instrument which was the first act to specifically define the term ‘flood hazard area’, could and should have been applied to protect specified areas against specifying areas of immediate flood hazard (particularly floodways, as flooding and its effects. indicated in the local spatial development plan on the basis of studies The Spatial Planning Act of 12 July 1984 [2], which remained in compiled by the head of the local water authority – art of 82 sec. 1 pt 1) force to the end of 1994, also did not contain provisions directly refer­ and areas of potential flood hazard (including areas at risk of flooding ring to flood hazard areas. However, the law provided for planning or­ when high waters overflowthe stopbank crown, and when a stopbank, a dinances (national plan, and regional and local plans) to take them into damming structure or protective structures of the service strip are consideration (as the act specifiedarrangements to be made for ‘areas of damaged or destroyed). However, it is important to realise that, simi­ imminent risk’) and floodhazard areas could certainly be considered as larly to floodways (which constitute a substantial part of flood hazard such (art of 19 sec. 2 pt 1 and art of 21 sec. 1). What guaranteed that such areas), their recognition as areas of immediate floodhazard – within the provisions were respected was, on the one hand, the requirement that meaning of the act and with the resultant legal effects – depended on any decision on development issued by virtue of the act had to be whether they were taken into account in the local spatial development compliant with the local spatial development plan (art of 46). In addi­ plan (their description was definedin the aforementioned studies). The tion, it was also warranted by provisions specified in the Building Law legal effect of failure to meet this prerequisite was that territories Act of 24 October 1974 (art of 31 sec. 3), pursuant to which a building specified in these studies as flood hazard areas did not gain the formal permit was only issued if the applicant had obtained permissions from status of areas of immediate flood hazard. They were, however, taken other bodies, including a permit required by the Water Law Act of 24 into consideration in official decisions on land development and man­ October 1974, as well as the aforementioned exemptions from statutory agement conditions made by virtue of the act, which was intended to bans on investment development in flood hazard areas. provide applicants with knowledge of investment risk in the area. At that With regard to general planning ordinances, no fundamental changes time and later, it was common practice, however, not to incorporate in regarding restrictions of spatial development in floodhazard areas were the texts of decisions on land development, the conditions for their introduced by the Land Development Act of 7 July 1994 [3], as its management, or building permits any information that a given

9 M. Borowska-Stefanska´ et al. Land Use Policy 102 (2021) 105274 development project was located within a flood hazard area, which subsequently repealing Council Directives 82/176/EEC, 83/513/EEC, otherwise could have resulted in restrictions of development activities. 84/156/EEC, 84/491/EEC, 86/280/EEC and amending Directive 2000/ And it is vital because land use in Poland is to all intents and purposes 60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council, which introduced based on decisions on land development and management conditions a brand new system of flood protection into the national legal frame­ due to the non-mandatory nature of local spatial management plans. work. A revised glossary of terms was implemented (the areas analysed These plans are an available legal instrument regulating spatial man­ herein fall into two categories: areas of particular flood hazard, which agement but are relatively rarely taken into account (local plans in include areas of 1% and 10 % probability of floodoccurrence, and flood Poland cover less than 30 % of the country’s territory). hazard areas due to the destruction of or damage to a stopbank), and Another major issue at that time which considerably impeded the flood protection was legally based on documentation which did not ability to restrict the use of flood hazard areas was the fact that not all previously exist in Polish law: flood hazard maps (which focus, espe­ heads of local water management authorities ordered the aforemen­ cially on flood hazard areas and the aforementioned areas at risk of tioned floodcontrol studies to be compiled; a decision which resulted in flooding), flood risk maps, and flood risk management plans. Impor­ a lack of legal bases to determine and incorporate flood hazard areas tantly, adjudications contained within floodhazard maps and floodrisk within local spatial management plans. The issue persisted until the maps were legally binding and had to be taken into account in both relevant powers of these bodies were withdrawn in 2011. general and individual planning ordinances. However, on 31st It must also be noted that, in actual fact, areas of potential flood December 2015, another modificationwas introduced, which appears to hazard were not formally established due to lack of any appropriate be a step back in terms of flood protection, as the obligation to incor­ executory order which could enable their legal recognition. Statutory porate boundaries of flood hazard areas and degrees of flood hazards restrictions of spatial development referred to areas of immediate flood indicated in the earlier maps was replaced with the legal possibility to do hazard and entailed introduction of bans on any works or other activities so (art of 88f sec. 5 was amended). that could hinder flood protection (the bans included building any It must also be emphasised that the extension of the portfolio of legal structures, planting trees and bushes, changing the topographical relief, solutions aimed at floodprotection did not lead to substantial changes in etc.). At the same time, however, the act also foresaw the possibility of the model and content of restrictions regarding spatial development of granting exemptions from such bans by way of an administrative deci­ flood hazard areas. These were specified in the act and focused mostly sion [4]. on areas of high floodhazard, imposing a ban on any works or activities Interestingly, there was also an obligation to incorporate and that could hinder flood protection or increase flood hazard, including distinguish areas specified by the flood protection studies in the docu­ development of water facilities and construction of any other structures mentation of planning ordinances, decisions on the location of any (save for cycling infrastructure), planting trees and bushes, and chang­ public-purpose projects, and decisions on land development and man­ ing the topographical relief. The new provisions also offered the possi­ agement conditions. Execution of the obligation was to be guaranteed by bility to obtain an exemption from these bans – a competent body could, the applicant’s obligation to consult and agree on planning ordinances by way of an administrative decision, resolve such matters by specifying with a competent head of the local water authority. This legal solution prerequisites for flood protection if it was not compromised by the also made it possible to influence administrative decisions issued by planned operations or investments. such authorities. According to the act, both general and individual Another vital issue is the significance of the statutory regulation for planning ordinances required consultations with a relevant water au­ the obligation to incorporate areas of high flood hazard in local spatial thority, as such a procedure guaranteed appropriate water management, development plans, and in particular, the problem of permissible land and in particular, the adequate protection of water resources, people and use of such areas, i.e., issuing building permits under special conditions. their health from floods.This obligation was also reflectedby provisions The obligation to incorporate areas at high risk of flooding in local within the Spatial Planning and Land Development Act of 27 March spatial development plans is from Article 15, Section 2, Item 7 of the 2003. [5] Spatial Planning and Land Development Act of 27 March 2003. In that Modifications – though not fundamental ones – were introduced matter, public administration bodies rely heavily on judicial decisions when the Water Law Act was amended in 2005 [6]. These included taken by those administrative courts that deal with complaints related to nomenclatorial corrections, e.g., studies compiled by heads of regional such plans. On the basis of judicial decisions taken, there is a prevailing water authorities were now referred to as ‘floodprotection studies’, but opinion that a ban on construction of any structures within floodhazard the classification into areas of immediate and potential flood hazard areas, as provided for by the Water Law, must be taken into account in remained unaltered. There were, however, changes which enabled the early stage of preparation of a local spatial development plan, and tighter restriction of spatial development within flood hazard areas in that it should result in total prohibition. Nevertheless, it still remained general. First of all, recognition of areas of potential floodhazard (which common practice not to incorporate areas at high risk of flooding into included flood hazard areas due to the destruction or damage of a local spatial development plans, and even if they are listed, no actual stopbank or a damming structure) required an appropriate provision in restrictions in land development are imposed to protect them against flood protection studies, but not a ministerial ordinance. Secondly, the flood and its effects. aforementioned bans were applicable to areas of immediate flood haz­ On the 1st of January 2018, a new act on Water Law Act of 20 July ard and could also be expanded to cover areas of potential floodhazard 2017 entered into force, preserving the flood protection model, regu­ (previously, there was no such possibility) if such expansion was ratio­ lated by the previous act and determined mainly by EU legal solutions nally justified by protection of people and property. (which refers, for example, to acts and documentation regarding Another, more substantial change of legal regulations in the matter detailed planning) [8]. Importantly, the new act did not change formerly was brought by a new amendment to the Water Law Act of 18 March applied principles and methods of determining flood hazard areas, and 2011 [7]. Its legal effect was the implementation of three European yet the legal obligation to incorporate areas of special floodhazard into directives into the Polish legal framework: Directive 2000/60/EC of the (general and individual) planning ordinances was reinstated. What did European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2000 establishing change substantially however was the degree of liberty that entities a framework for Community action in the fieldof water policy, Directive generating planning ordinances enjoy in the process of stipulating pro­ 2007/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 visions regarding spatial development and land use of flood hazard October 2007 on the assessment and management of floodrisks (the so- areas. At present, drafts of such ordinances must be agreed with the called Floods Directive), and Directive 2008/105/EC of the European National Water Management Authority – State Waters (a state- Parliament and of the Council of 16 December 2008 on environmental controlled organisation with the status of a legal entity) with regard to quality standards in the field of water policy, amending and land use, construction development, and spatial development of

10 M. Borowska-Stefanska´ et al. Land Use Policy 102 (2021) 105274 territories located within areas of special flood hazard. The agreement which damage was not calculated) (Fig. 3). The situation was analogical takes the form of an administrative decision, which specifies re­ in the areas of 1% probability of floodoccurrence (Fig. 4). In both cases, quirements and conditions for the planned development or spatial the increase in land usage that could lead to the greatest potential losses development of territories located within floodhazard areas, and which was also reported for these territories, i.e., residential and industrial takes into account the probability of floodoccurrence, the level of flood areas, with a significantlylarger growth for the former. Even though the hazard, and the development projected in the area, as well as its current trends were similar in both cases, it must be emphasised that a higher spatial development and intended use. increase in residential and industrial areas was observed for territories of In conclusion to this section, it must be emphasised that the Polish 1% probability of floodoccurrence. As far as these residential areas are legislature has always recognised the need to impose additional legal concerned, we can distinguish two essential periods, i.e., the years restrictions upon flood hazard areas and has shaped the applicable 1990–2006, when the expansion of residential areas was most dynamic provisions of law so that they could – at least potentially – enable an in the analysed territories, and the years 2006–2018, when a growth of effective mitigation of flood-relateddamage. However, there is a crucial noticeably lower dynamics was recorded. This situation refers to all drawback of the applied legal solutions, as indicted in this section. studied flood hazard areas, and is, on the one hand the effect of the Namely, statutory legal instruments have been used inadequately, which political transformation in Poland, but also results from the lack of resulted in the intensification of inappropriate development processes clearly stipulated provisions regarding the terminology applied to flood and the spatial development of floodhazard areas, as shown in research. hazard areas in acts and ordinances, which – in consequence – led to For various, not always clearly exhibitable and explicable, reasons, no insufficient protection and intense development within their borders. action was taken to provide appropriate mitigation of flood-related ef­ As for floodhazard areas due to the destruction of a stopbank, there fects. In a substantial part of the analysed period insufficient measures is also a noticeable tendency for the other types of land use to increase in were taken to demarcate floodhazard areas, to impose construction bans size at the expense of arable lands. However, what differentiates these and building restrictions, and to determine the technical requirements flood hazard areas from the territories discussed above is the pace of which could prevent land development in such areas, even though this residential development that take place (it is considerably higher for should have been the foundation of sustainable and rational manage­ areas located outside stopbanks) (Fig. 5). It should be noted that such ment. Importantly, the state of affairs was not merely the effect of the intense spatial development in areas outside stopbanks is due to lack of actions taken (or their lack) by the local government authorities enabled appropriate legal provisions which would impose restrictions on their to issue planning acts (general and individual), but also water man­ use. What is more, the existing protective structures create a false sense agement bodies and those departments inspecting the work of local of security in river valleys and encourage investors to develop new government authorities as part of the government administration, whose construction projects, which results in a vicious circle of protection – responsibilities involve supervising, drafting and verifying such acts. development – damage – greater protection – greater development – ˙ These departments are authorised to enforce adoption of the said reg­ greater damage (Bobinski´ and Zelazinski,´ 1996; Nachlik, 2010). ulations into the analysed planning acts and block actions that infringe Changes in types of land use reflect nationwide transformations in statutory requirements in the matter (such conclusions can be drawn the country’s spatial development that has taken place since 1950s. The from analysis of feedback from the 2013 inspection conducted by the general tendency in Poland (not only for flood hazard areas) is for Supreme Audit Office, regarding planning and implementing construc­ agricultural land to shrink due to deteriorating soil properties, envi­ tion and development projects in flood hazard areas) (NIK, 2013). ronmental degradation, and its transformation into non-agricultural parcels. This trend is most visible in the vicinity of large urban ag­ glomerations – Upper Silesia, Warsaw, Łod´ ´z, Cracow, Poznan,´ Wrocław, 5.2. Changes of spatial development and value of potential physical Tricity (Gdansk,´ Gdynia, and Sopot). The amount of built-up areas in damage Poland has been expanding as a result of urbanisation processes, at the expense of agricultural land (Fig. 6–8) (Grochowska, 2016), and this On the basis of the research, it was established that within the areas trend can also be observed for flood plains. of 10 % probability of floodoccurrence the greatest land use expansion between 1990 and 2018 concerned forests and cultivated lands, whose size grew mainly at the expense of arable lands and other areas (for

Fig. 3. Changes in types of land cover in areas of 10 % probability of flood occurrence in Poland between 1990 and 2018. Source: own study

11 M. Borowska-Stefanska´ et al. Land Use Policy 102 (2021) 105274

Fig. 4. Changes in types of land cover in areas of 1% probability of flood occurrence in Poland between 1990 and 2018. Source: own study

Fig. 5. Changes in types of land cover in flood hazard areas due to the destruction of a stopbank in Poland between 1990 and 2018 Source: own study.

5.3. The effect of local conditions on damage volumes development plans on the increase or decline in volumes of potential flood damage (Fig. 10). This is quite puzzling since changes to the Spatiotemporal analyses enabled us to distinguish the group of mu­ existing law should directly result in a reduction of floodrisk within the nicipalities whose damage volume was characterised by the specific floodhazard areas. A simplistic conclusion that the law is ineffective in nature of the changes undertaken between 1990 and 2018. Among these the matter does not seem to be fully justified,as the situation may also be it was crucial to identify zones/clusters where damage took larger-than- influenced by inaccuracies in official statistics regarding the extent to average values or even intensifiedover the entire period (Fig. 9.). For the which a given municipality is covered by local spatial development Vistula drainage basin, between 1990–2018 its upper and middle course plans, and lack of information on their coverage within the borders of recorded the highest volume of physical damage and the greatest in­ the municipality. crease in damage within southern Poland (Lesser Poland and Sub­ However, the analysed periods allow us to observe distinctive trends carpathia) and near Warsaw (Masovian Voivodeship), while lands in the regarding spatial development and retrogression of individual types of vicinity of Gdansk´ (Pomeranian Voivodeship – the estuary to the Baltic land cover within the researched areas. There is a distinct growth in the Sea) were characterised by an extremely high damage increase for flood size of residential areas between 1990 and 2012. In addition, the early hazard areas due to the destruction of a stopbank. In the Oder Valley, stage of the political and economic transformation was dominated by a damage was greatest mainly for floods of high and medium probability relatively serious crisis for Polish industry, which may explain the initial of occurrence, and the largest rise in such damage for the analysed (1990 2000) decrease in its size (in flood hazard areas) and the period was observed in areas located within the Voivodeships of Lower extremely slow pace of its spatial expansion in floodhazard areas due to Silesia and Opole. the destruction of a stopbank. This situation was later reversed The study of municipalities as individual clusters (obtained in the dramatically, with a considerable increase in the size of industrial areas. course of spatiotemporal analyses) does not allow us, however, to survey For arable lands and grassland (save for flood hazard areas), a spatial the important impact of land cover as a result of local spatial retrogression was recorded throughout the analysed period.

12 M. Borowska-Stefanska´ et al. Land Use Policy 102 (2021) 105274

Fig. 6. The volume of potential physical damage per one hectare in areas of 10 % probability of floodoccurrence by municipality in Poland between 1990 and 2018. Source: own study

13 M. Borowska-Stefanska´ et al. Land Use Policy 102 (2021) 105274

Fig. 7. The volume of potential physical damage per one hectare in areas of 1% probability of floodoccurrence by municipality in Poland between 1990 and 2018. Source: own study

14 M. Borowska-Stefanska´ et al. Land Use Policy 102 (2021) 105274

Fig. 8. The volume of potential physical damage per one hectare in flood hazard areas due to the destruction of a stopbank in Poland between 1990 and 2018. Source: own study

15 M. Borowska-Stefanska´ et al. Land Use Policy 102 (2021) 105274

Fig. 9. Patterns of control data on volumes of potential physical damage by municipality in Poland between 1990 and 2018 (A – areas of 10 % probability of flood occurrence; B – areas of 1% probability of flood occurrence; C – flood hazard areas due to the destruction of a stopbank). Source: own study

The data listed above might indicate the significanceof the changes service strip. Therefore, three major areas can be distinguished within to the relevant laws, in particular, those provisions introduced in 2011, the borders of the Vistula drainage basin, in which the rise in physical as a result of which the pace of construction development in hazard damage would be the highest: areas began to show a noticeable retardation and was nearly brought to a halt. However, spatial development of residential and industrial areas 1 The Upper Vistula River Valley; may also have been impacted by factors other than legal ones, which can 2 The Middle Vistula River Valley, from Zawichost to Płock be seen when we compare the pace of construction development in flood 3 The Lower Vistula River Valley, from Torun´ to the estuary. hazard areas and the adjacent territories (Table 5). It must be stressed that the implementation of non-technical measures based on spatial For Poland, a common feature of the listed areas is their exceptional planning encounters difficulties;they might return favourable effects in vastness. The Upper Vistula River Valley – from O´swięcim and Cracow to the long term, but they require complex transformations of the socio- Sandomierz and Zawichost – spreads for many kilometres in width. The economic system. Vistula flowsthrough northern regions of the Subcarpathian Subsidence, For the Vistula drainage basin, its upper and middle course recorded across the O´swięcim Basin, the Cracow Gate and the Sandomierz Basin. the highest volume of physical damage and the greatest damage increase The flood plains of the Vistula widen dramatically in spots where the between 1990–2018 for all flooding scenarios in the following water main river is joined by its large right-bank Carpathian tributaries: the regions: the Upper-Western Vistula, the Upper-Eastern Vistula, and the Soła, the Skawa, the Raba, the Dunajec, the Wisłoka and the San. Middle Vistula. Whereas, the water region of the Lower Vistula is Together with smaller streams, the Vistula has shaped the alluvial characterised by an extremely high increase in damage for floodhazard lowland flood plains. The meandering major river and its tributaries areas due to the destruction of a stopbank or protective structures of the have created a floodplain that has the width of 2.5–6 kilometres in the

16 M. Borowska-Stefanska´ et al. Land Use Policy 102 (2021) 105274

Fig. 10. Changes in land cover of the Local Spatial Development Plan between 2011 and 2017 for individual types of municipalities selected for 10 % (on the left) and 1% (on the right) flood hazard areas Source: own study.

between Puławy and Warsaw rises to 17 km below the spot where the Table 5 river is joined by its right-bank tributary the Wieprz, with the majority of Period-to-period difference between changes regarding the development of areas there being flood plains. The high waters experienced on the residential areas in territories of high or medium probability of floodoccurrence Vistula between Zawichost, Warsaw and Płock are the result of the and flood hazard areas due to the destruction of a stopbank. progress of the floodwave that rises in its upper course. On reaching the Type of area Difference in the pace of growth for residential areas compared narrowing of the Lesser Poland Gorge, it builds and threatens numerous to analogical values for areas with permission to build settlements located between Zawichost and Puławy. 1990 2000 2000 2006 2006 2012 2012 2018 The Lower Vistula River Valley – below Włocławek and Torun,´ in the 10 % probability 4.26% 20.09% 1.80% 0.53 % – 1% probability 1.89% 20.37% 0.37% 0.15 % Lower Vistula Water Region is a massive geomorphologic form with an exceptionally wide flood plain. The degree of flood hazard there is Source: own study. impacted by the Włocławek Reservoir, which was built in 1970 as part of the project called ‘The Lower Vistula River Cascade’, although it remains ´ Oswięcim Basin, at the mouth of the Soła River, 1–4 kilometres at the the only existing element of this plan. Evidence of strong riverbed throat of the Cracow Gate and 5.5–14 kilometres in the Sandomierz erosion can be found below the reservoir. The fluvial terrace has been Basin. The floodplain is widest at the mouth of the Dunajec River, where lowered for several dozen kilometres below the dam, and the frequency it joins the Vistula within the Sandomierz Basin. of high waters decreased, which allowed large areas of the valley bottom In the vast and low terrain of the Upper Vistula River Valley, stop­ to be transformed into arable lands. banks do not guarantee an appropriate level of floodprotection, as they Below the forested Torun´ Basin near Bydgoszcz, the Vistula River form a narrow protective barrier around river channels (the Vistula and leaves the lowlands of the The Torun-Eberswald´ Proglacial Stream its tributaries), protecting small parts of flood plains. The low-lying Valley and flowstowards the north, forming its estuarian section. Firstly, opposite side of the stopbanks are home to numerous settlements it shapes the watershed Fordon Valley, which is approximately 3.5 km (mainly villages) which are at risk of being floodedwhenever a stopbank wide near Fordon, and up to 10.5 km wide in the Unisław Basin. Then, it breaks (an almost yearly situation). This results in extremely high flowsinto the Grudziąd´z Basin, where the maximum width of the flood damage related primarily to the destruction of road and residential plain reaches 7 km, and which is equipped with high stopbanks pro­ infrastructure, and crop damage to the vast agricultural lands of the tecting numerous villages on the floodplain. The estuarian Baltic stretch valley. of the valley is the vast alluvial delta called Zu˙ ławy Wi´slane. In its further course, below the mouth of the San, the Vistula breaks As far as the Oder Valley is concerned, physical damage is highest through the Lesser Poland Upland and the Lublin Upland (The Lesser primarily in the event of a flood of high and medium possibility of Poland Gorge of the Vistula). The valley, which is a creation of this great occurrence. In the researched period, the greatest increase in damage river, narrows to 1.8 km at the breaks near Kazimierz Dolny, between was reported for two regions – the Upper and Middle Oder. Zawichost and Puławy. In Zawichost, it widens to 2.8 km, while the The width of the Oder Valley above Wrocław ranges from 3 to 4 to width of the floodplain ranges from 1 km (Kazimierz Dolny) to as many over 15 km, and flood plains at the valley bottom stretch from 2.5 to as 9 km near the Chodelka Basin, above Kazimierz. The section of the over 10 km. An exceptional location – in terms of the vastness of flood valley that Jerzy Kondracki (2000) calls the Middle Vistula River Valley plains – is the hydrological node where the Oder is joined by the Sto­ starts below Puławy. This section – together with the Warsaw Basin brawa and the Eastern Neisse, its right and left-bank tributaries (which stretches below the Polish capital) – are areas where the Vistula respectively. Within the area, the floodplain stretches over a distance of still preserves its natural character and remains minimally regulated by more than 11 km. In Wrocław, the Oder Valley becomes most expansive man. Its broad-flowing one-kilometre-wide bed is full of islets, sand­ in the vicinity where the Oder is joined by two tributaries – the right- banks and shallows, and surrounded on both banks by broad meadowed bank Widawa, and the left-bank Oława. The fluvial terrace was fluvial terraces with stopbanks. The width of the Vistula River Valley formed by the rivers that once meandered in the area, and stretches to

17 M. Borowska-Stefanska´ et al. Land Use Policy 102 (2021) 105274 the width of 7 km. The majority of Wrocław and its suburbs lie within in the drainage basin of the Vistula River (since there are consider­ the flood plains of these rivers. ably more stopbanks there than in the Oder basin). The Oder Valley reaches spectacular width below the mouth of the • Intense construction development within flood hazard areas is Barycz River, near the city of Głogow.´ This section is part of the massive observed mainly in locations where flood plains are wide and local ice-marginal Valley of Baruth-Głogow,´ whose bottom reaches even residents feel safe to build their homes in territories which are, quite 13.5 km in width. In densely populated Lower Silesia (density: 146 in­ often, far away from rivers. habitants per km2), most settlements are located in the lowland, the axis • In order to lower flood risk, protection measures should not only of which is the vast Oder Valley. The settlement network in this region include technical, but also, or perhaps primarily, non-technical has been developing since the Early Middle Ages, and thus, there are solutions. numerous towns and cities in the immediate vicinity of the river: Raciborz,´ Ko´zle, Krapkowice, Opole, Brzeg, Oława, Wrocław, Malczyce, At the beginning of the analysed period (1990–2001), the issue of ´ Scinawa, and Głogow.´ The agricultural hub of the region, the valley is spatial development in flood hazard area was mainly regulated by the also home to a large number of villages and hamlets. One of the pre­ Water Law Act of 1974, which entered into force on the 1st of January cautionary measures taken in the valley are massive stopbanks in the 1975. Pursuant to its Article 58, it was possible to impose an obligation flood plains near the Oder (and its tributaries), which are theoretically for certain areas to be managed and developed in a specified manner, meant to provide an adequate level of floodprotection for the vast areas including restrictions necessary to adequately protect and use waters, located behind them and at the bottom of the valley. and secure people and property against flooding (Section 1)(the legal The above information shows that the intense development and instrument referring to restrictions in the land development of these management of floodhazard areas can mainly be seen in the cities and in areas was not implemented since the Council of Ministers never issued a locations where the flood plains are extremely wide and not equipped regulation determining the principles, manner or bodies competent to with stopbanks. On the other hand, extensive development of areas impose such restrictions). What is more, landowners who incurred any behind stopbanks stems from the firmbelief in their reliability. Another losses due to the implementation of such restrictions were entitled to reason for this growth is the fact that such areas, often quite vast, are compensation (Section 2). Unfortunately, the legal instrument of stat­ located within the city borders, taking up considerable amounts of po­ utory flood protection was never actively applied, which resulted in tential urban space, which makes a complete exclusion of areas outside flood hazard areas being excessively used and developed (the act stopbanks virtually impossible. remained in force until the end of 2001). Broadly speaking, restrictions pursuant to the acts of 1974, and then of 2001, regarding use and 6. Conclusions development of flood hazard areas applied exclusively to territories lying between stopbanks and the channels of flowingwaters. Moreover, • The study in changes of the management of flood hazard areas be­ these bans were not absolute, which made it legally possible for in­ tween 1990 and 2018 demonstrated that their development is clearly vestors to erect buildings and structures within flood hazard areas. It connected with both environmental factors and legal conditions; was the Spatial Planning and Land Development Act of 27 March 2003 • Two distinctive periods – 1990–2006 and 2006–2018 – stand out in that actually introduced a statutory obligation to incorporate such areas the analysis of the intensity of spatial development within flood into planning ordinances, which is reflected by the considerably lower plains after 1990, which also translates into an increase in potential dynamic development of built-up zones within the borders of flood physical damage. hazard areas after this date. Another factor that determined the situation • Before the early 21st century, flood hazard areas were not clearly was the fact that prior to the implementation of the Water Law Act of definedand recognised in acts and ordinances, which resulted in an 2001 floodhazard areas had not been precisely definedor stipulated by inappropriate level of their protection, and in aggressive develop­ any statutory regulation. The next important step was taken in 2011, ment (a situation which was also affected by the political trans­ when three EU directives, including the Floods Directive (Floods Direc­ formation underway in Poland at that time). tive, 2007), were introduced into the framework of Polish law. In • The accession of Poland to the EU and the necessity to adapt Polish accordance with these legal acts, flood protection in Poland had to be law to EU regulations accelerated work on the legal provisions based on legal documentation that was previously unknown in the regulating the use and management of floodhazard areas, leading to, Polish legal system: flood hazard maps, flood risk maps, and flood risk inter alia, the creation of the Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment management plans which are to be compiled pursuant to the imple­ (2011) and floodhazard and risk maps (2013), where areas at risk of mentation schedule of the Floods Directive. Here, initial documentation flooding were marked and clearly defined. In consequence, bans includes preliminary flood risk assessments prepared for areas of river were also imposed which partially restrict development projects in drainage basins, which must precisely define and locate flood hazard such areas. The transposition and implementation of the Floods areas. However, intense use and development of areas outside stopbanks Directive in Poland has its planning, environmental, economic, stems, inter alia, from lack of legal regulations to restrict such practices. informative and social effects (Głosinska,´ 2014) What is more, open Unfortunately, studies show that the implemented statutory restrictions and free access to flood hazard and risk maps (accessible on the are not entirely effective, which was also stated by the legislator, who website of the ‘State Waters’ National Water Holding, at (‘https://wa implemented a new, stricter law on spatial development of floodhazard rszawa.wody.gov.pl/’) has contributed to a rise in social awareness areas (mainly one-hundred-year floods) in 2019. Nevertheless, it will of flood risk in people’s areas of residence’. take some time before the assessment of the effectiveness of this new • In 2018, the volume of physical damage per square metre for flood legal solution is possible. hazard areas within the basins of the Oder, the Vistula, and the The review of legal provisions regulating land management in flood Pregolya amounted to 1.16, 0.93 and 0.7 euro per square metre hazard areas combined with the analysis of changes in land-use trends respectively. regarding these environmentally, touristically and residentially valuable • The volume of physical damage per square metre for flood hazard lands allows the authors to provide a series of universal recommenda­ areas due to the destruction of a stopbank or protective structures of tions, not only for legislators but also for the intersectoral policy of the the service strip within the basins of the Oder and the Vistula state. It seems insufficient to just look at land management of flood amounts to 1.16 and 3.26 euro per square metre respectively. hazard areas through the prism of imposing stricter regulations and • Protective structures create a false sense of security in river valleys eradicating ‘gaps’ in the law, as this approach neither keeps up with the and encourage investors to develop new construction projects within dynamics of socioeconomic processes, nor takes into account the floodplains lying outside stopbanks, which is particularly noticeable expanding spectrum of special cases which accompany investment

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