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Australia and New Zealand's Participation in Global Companions Abroad: Australia and New Zealand’s participation in global flows February 2015 Authored by Living in remote island nations, Australians and New Zealanders have long had an intuitive David Pralong understanding that being open to, and connected to, the rest of the world is important for James Manyika the health of their economies. There is hard evidence that they are right. Connectedness Sree Ramaswamy accelerates GDP growth, both in the short and long term. Recent research by the McKinsey Ben Fletcher Kate Yang Global Institute (MGI) finds that global flows of goods, services, finance, people, and data and communication contribute between 15 and 25 percent of world GDP.1 The country most connected to these flows—and inflows matter as well as outflows in the form of exports— will reap 40 percent more benefit than the least connected country. In short, connectedness is a virtuous circle—the richer the networks of connectivity and the more diverse the nature of flows and bilateral relationships, the more a country benefits.2 So how connected are Australia and New Zealand to the burgeoning landscape of global cross-border flows? Shifts in the global-flows landscape The past 25 years have borne witness to four dramatic shifts in global flows. The first of these has been robust growth in the global scale and value of all five types of global flows. Cross-border flows of goods, services, and finance reached $26 trillion in 2012 or 36 percent of global GDP—1.5 times the level in 1990.3 Today, 35 percent of goods cross borders and one in three dollars of financing comes from a foreign creditor or investor. People flows have soared with 1 billion border crossings in 2011. Data and communication flows have grown the fastest. Cross-border Internet traffic has grown 18-fold since 2005; international call volumes have doubled. And these trends show no signs of abating. Flows of goods, services and finance are predicted to reach $85 trillion by 2025, people flows to reach 2 billion short-term travellers, and global online traffic potentially to expand another eightfold. Second, existing routes of flows are broadening and deepening, and new ones 1 Global flows in a digital are developing as many more countries participate in the world economy—especially age: How trade, finance, emerging economies that are becoming important as consumers and producers in the people, and data connect the world economy, global economy. Emerging economies now account for 38 percent of global flows, McKinsey Global nearly triple their share in 1990. South-to-South goods flows between emerging Institute, April 2014. economies have grown from just $200 billion or 6 percent of total goods flows 2 Ibid. in 1990 to $4.4 trillion—25 percent—in 2012. 3 Unless otherwise specified, all figures in this paper are quoted in US dollars. 1 Third, there has been dramatic growth in the value associated with knowledge-intensive—as opposed to labour-intensive or capital-intensive—flows.4 Today, knowledge-intensive flows are worth $12.6 trillion a year. That’s half of total flows and more than the combined GDP of China and Germany in 2012. Knowledge-intensive flows are growing faster than many other types of flows. For instance, trade in knowledge-intensive goods is growing 1.3 times as fast as trade in labour-intensive goods such as apparel and toys. The same is true in services. Fourth, digitisation is transforming and enriching all flows by reducing the marginal costs of production and distribution. We are seeing the creation of purely digital goods and services, the increasing use of “digital wrappers”—sensors that track flows and produce information about them that can be used commercially, and a proliferation of online platforms that are facilitating cross-border activity. Cross-border e-commerce has grown from almost zero in 2005 to 13 percent of global goods trade in 2013. Skype went from nothing to four percent to 39 percent of the level of international voice calls in just a decade. On eBay, more than 90 percent of commercial sellers ship to customers in other countries, compared with 25 percent of small businesses in the offline world. In the past, governments and multinationals were the only actors involved in cross-border economic activity. Today, even the individual entrepreneur or the “micro multinational” is able to participate courtesy of digital technologies. A special connection The economic relationship between Australia and New Zealand has been the subject of much discussion and study.5 Today, the two economies are highly connected to each other in all five types of cross-border flow. Relative to the size of their economies, the two countries have more exchanges than most pairs of countries (Exhibit 1). Remaining obstacles to connectedness between Australia and New Zealand have been well researched and their removal is unlikely to be transformational for the relationship. Exhibit 1 Australia and New Zealand are deeply connected economies 4 Knowledge-intensive Depth of relationship flows include R&D intensive-goods such Share of total flows between the pair, % Connectedness score 1 as pharmaceutical Country pair Goods Services Finance People Data Index drugs, chemicals and Australia-New Zealand 3 5 6 27 25 13 electronics, high-skill services such as United States-Canada 13 7 7 18 10 11 professional services and financial services, and Malaysia-Singapore 5 2 4 36 4 10 foreign direct investment (FDI) flows (since they United States-Mexico 11 4 2 13 6 7 are associated with management expertise). United States- 2 7 11 3 8 6 United Kingdom 5 For a comprehensive bibliography of France-Germany 5 4 5 6 9 6 publications on this topic, see Strengthening France-United Kingdom 3 4 5 7 10 6 economic relations between Australia and Japan-China 6 3 3 4 10 5 New Zealand – Joint research report, United States-Japan 4 5 5 3 6 5 Australian Government Productivity Commission United States-China 7 3 1 1 7 4 and New Zealand 1 Finance is the total of foreign direct investment (FDI); people is the total of international tourist arrivals; data is the total of cross-border Internet traffic. Productivity Commission, SOURCE: Comtrade; IHS; World Trade Organization; Telegeography; World Development Indicators, World Bank; McKinsey Global Institute analysis December 13, 2012. 2 Standing together The McKinsey Global Institute Connectedness Index ranks Australia 17th for its participation in the five types of global flow out of 131 countries assessed, and New Zealand ranks 43rd.6 These rankings have fallen slightly since 1995 (Exhibit 2). These rankings and their evolution may appear counter-intuitive, given the strong export-oriented nature of both economies, and the recent strength in commodity prices. However, the reality behind the slight declines in connectivity rankings is that Australia and New Zealand are not participating fully in the fastest-growing global flows: global value chains, emerging markets, and knowledge-intensive flows. In comparison, Germany has increased its rank to become the most connected country in the world. Its rankings across all flows are in the top seven. Germany has a strong manufacturing sector, good participation in knowledge-intensive goods flows, and a central position in the European Union This strong position has been bolstered by good infrastructure, supply of labour, and government policy. Exhibit 2 Australia and New Zealand rank 17th and 43rd on global connectedness Rank of global connectedness, in total and by flow Rank Flow Rank Country change Goods Services Finance People Data intensity %1 1 Germany 1 3 5 7 5 2 110 2 Hong Kong2 1 4 3 14 546 3 United States -1 8 9 5 1 7 35 4 Singapore 1 2 3 4 18 5 436 5 United Kingdom -1 13 6 9 7 3 60 6 Netherlands 2 6 7 15 29 1 157 7 France -1 9 10 36 15 4 60 8 Canada -1 16 22 13 9 18 76 6 The McKinsey Global 17 Australia -1 32 34 14 11 30 53 Institute Connectedness Index ranks 131 countries 21 Japan -1 14 24 10 82 15 44 on their connectedness 25 India 5 5 21 6 93 33 62 by looking at both the size 30 China 16 27 13 26 47 64 61 of inflows and outflows relative to their GDP or 43 New Zealand -3 61 59 58 25 47 63 population, and its share 49 South Africa 4 43 50 49 56 73 63 of global flows, drawing 56 Indonesia -3 31 49 39 113 65 56 on a methodology developed by Jay Squalli 1 Flow intensity is proportion of goods, services and finance to GDP; 2 Data unavailable for data flows SOURCE: Comtrade; IHS Global Insights; UN WTO; Telegeography; World Development Indicators, World Bank; McKinsey Global Institute analysis and Kenneth Wilson. See Global flows in a digital age: How trade, finance, people, and data connect 1. Strong in resource exports, less so in global value chains the world economy, Australia and New Zealand’s global flows show a bias towards the export of primary McKinsey Global Institute, April 2014; and resources. The resource-intensive exports of both countries nearly doubled in value Jay Squalli and Kenneth between 2008 and 2012, from $138 billion to $248 billion. However, even that growth Wilson, A new approach to measuring trade was not as rapid as the goods exports increases achieved by other countries including openness, Economic China and India. These two emerging economies, which gained five places and 16 places Policy Research Unit, respectively in their connectedness ranking between 1990 and 2012, have not only been Zayed University, Dubai, working paper number increasingly strong exporters but have simultaneously experienced significant growth in 06 - 07, May 2006.
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