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Back Analysis of the Institutional and Social Responses to the Eruption Back analysis of the institutional and social responses to the eruption and the lahars of Mount Pinatubo Volcano from 1991 to 1998 (Central Luzon, Philippines) Frédéric Leone, Jean-Christophe Gaillard To cite this version: Frédéric Leone, Jean-Christophe Gaillard. Back analysis of the institutional and social responses to the eruption and the lahars of Mount Pinatubo Volcano from 1991 to 1998 (Central Luzon, Philippines). GeoJournal, Springer Verlag, 1999, 49 (2), pp.223-238. halshs-00119436 HAL Id: halshs-00119436 https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00119436 Submitted on 9 Dec 2006 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. ¢¡¤£¦¥§¡¦¨©¡¦ © ¨ ¨©¡¦ ¡¨© ¦£¦ ¡¦ !¨" # !# ¨§¡¦¨"$ ¡©¡¦ %&'¤¨() ¨©¡ *©¢+ £¡,¨"$ ¤-/.0#0.1 2.¦00©3 57698;:<69=>62?¦@'AB#ADC2EGFIHKJ7B#=>A1FLBFLMNFLBC9=>62?'69=KO<A%C98;B62?'PJQAR>C9=>AJSATFLCUFLH>JVJ;PM>RNFLBC9=W69=>OXFLH>JV?69H>69PA C2EZY[C9MK=NFZ\]B=>62FLM>^>C`_'C2?#8;69=>CaE)PCcbed§f9fNd`FICgd§f9f9hji klJ;=NFLP6m?onpMrqsC9=Kt9\]H>B¤?#BR>R>B=>J;ALu vxwSy$z {Q|)}G}LwT~)}L¦~'$}L|N~© ow$|©}L|>w|)¦$¦w$w}%z¦z}L|N}%$|)$L¦yz}L|Nz%}1|'Tz© 1~) 9¦w]}%;y]zy;y~©|>$G¢$zywNw;y¦ }T%$;%$p¦N}Lw~yz9%1w$¢cS¦z $ 9wS}1| L ¡§¢;£S¤c¥¦£ §¦¨©ª« ¬­o¨®¬¯ °¢±9¨¯²«ª©³´)µ ¶2®)· ¸L¨¤«,¹¦· ¬´o¯ °¢º«¨®»³o¼½¨¹¬¾®L¿©·¨¹ª®¿9±§À´ª®)ª©µ ÁLÂ9ÃÂLÄ9Å»³L¯¨Æ»³L¨¤«,µÇGª« ¬· ®)·ÈÉÀI¨µº«ªÉ®L»#¨ ÊË­oª·ÆÌ©º«¨¿)¨¤«· »©Í Ψ¯©®L¨Ïx­oª« ¬· ®)·ÈÀL¨Í ÀL®· ¸I˪²Í °« ÐLÑÒÓÔÕQÖ% ×,ØÙLÚÖѦÛmܦÝ#¢;¢;Ü2Þ¦ß §¦¨©ª« ¬­o¨®"¬¯©°±9¨¯)²É«ª©³´)µ ¶2®)· ¸L¨«¹¦· ¬´o¯©°ÅªÉ¸)¯ ´)µÂà9àÂ)á9Ψ;⧯ÉÀ«²¨¬¿À'Ϊ»2ã;¨¿©¨ä µ)ºI«ª®L»¨ ÊË­oª·ÆÌ夨#ªÉ®LË»¤³©«·¹¬¦¯©³L¨"Í ²©ª· Æ Æ ª«¿ÏGÀ)®· ¸L˹¦ª¸L¯©·¨Í °« æ>ç;èé#ê©ëì é í7îïð%ñ$òSó ðô ñï%õî>öîL÷ø ô©ðî>ù úïû%ñ¦ùüZóðý¤ï%ðùÿþ¡ ¢ þcóðGñ¤£¢ù¦¥ÿôóðZó¨§÷ô©ðüGî © Sï LîðGõù)÷îðLóðNñîKñ£ùcò£ó÷óûLû¢óð%ù §2ôú#ø£¢óû¢ù ÷ôLîNïLùNùø)îIð¢î¥ÿó¦ø ÷ù §>ô ð%üûîû%ï÷ôñ¦óîðVùîLü1泥ô)ö1ù©¦îL÷÷î>ùü £ó!§¥ô¨"îúZøÉú#ó§ó§#£%ô§Kõ¢ù ù©ðú#ù©÷ô$Lùü%ró ñ&£ îIñ¤£¢ù ú>øú#ó§ó§GüIï¢ùxñî/÷ô'£ôú(§)£%óø£*£ôöLùÿõùù©ð §¤ïûû%÷óùü+Nóñ&£]ù©ú¦ïûLñóîð½üùûî§óñ!§' £ù¡§ù>÷ô'£%ô ú,§-£ôöLùZî1ø©øïúú#ùüÿùöLù ú.$+$Lùô ú/§óðø©ùDþ¡ 0 þ>ü1ïLú#ó ðGñ£ùNú#ô óð0$1§ùô §îð £ù'$2>ó÷÷$û%úîõ¢ô õ%÷3$÷ô §¤ñ ïðñó÷4505678©ñù ú¦ôrõLúóù©;ûú,ù §¤ù ð%ñô ñóîIð]î ©;ñ£ùNò£ó÷ó ûû%óðù>î ©¨©¦óø óô÷úù¡§¤û%îð§ù2§,$§¤ñù'¥<ñ¦îZüLó¨§ô¡§¤ñù ú9§:1ñ£%ó¨§Qû¢ôÉû¢ù ú¦ü1úô'#§Qïûÿô>øú#ó ñ¦óø ô©÷;ôðô©÷3$¢§ó¨§9î © ñ&£¢ùKü%ó&©!©¦ù úù ð%ñ ;%óð¢ü§cî ©2óð§,ñóñï1ñóîðô÷Sô ðü<§îLø©óô÷úù¡§¤ûîð§ù§cüLù û%÷î¢$Lù)üxñî=¥ô ðôLù>ñ&£%ùGüL󩨩¦ù ú#ù ðLñ¦øúó¨§ó¨§9ô ð¢üGûñ¨>øÉú#ó§ó§mû £ô?§¤ù §cî ©Vñ£ó§cù)ö1ù©ð1ñ. @oô §ùüGîðZñ&£%úùùNöLóù'NûîLóðLñ.§'A¡©ú#Xûîû%ï÷ôÉñóîð:¢¥ÿùüLóôNô ð%üGîñ£ù ú¦ôøñ¦îú9§:1ñ£%ó¨§2ôðô©÷¤$§ó¨§2ô©ññù'¥Zûñ!§QñîNûîLóð%ñ;îï%ñ$ñ£ù8§¦ñú,ù ðñ£§2ô ð%ü#rùô';ð%ù §9§ù § ;ñ£ù>î ©.©¦óø©óô÷ ¥ÿô©ðôLù'¥ù ðLñB§,$§¤ñù'¥<:ù §¤û%ùø©óô÷÷3$>õ$C§¤ñïü0$Lóð>ñ&£¢ùKù¡©¨©¦óø óù ðø$Zô ðüGñ£ùNúô©ðLù>;ñ£ùNñô';%ù ð§îL÷ïLñóîð§Dî:ó ñsôÉû%ûù©ô ú(§Qñ&£%ô ññ&£¢ù ¥ÿô ð¢ôLù'¥ÿù ð%ñ9î ©2ñ£ùÿýïð%ù/þ¡ 0 $þ8¥ÿô©óð/øú#ó¨§ó¨§FE¤ùúïûLñóîðGH>ô¡§Nô<§¤ïø©ø ù §§'Icð½ñ&£%ùÿîñ&£¢ù úF£ô©ðü:;ü󩨩¦óøÉï¢÷ ñ¦óù §¦£¢ôöLùÿî1ø)øÉï%ú¤ú#ùü<>ó ñ&£½÷ô'£%ô ú(§mú#ó§,; ¥ÿô ð¢ôLù'¥ÿù ð%ñ.HJðüù)ùü:2ñ&£¢ù§ù/÷ô'£ôú(§1£%ôöLùVîõ÷ó1ù)ü`ñ£%ùVô ïLñ£îú#ó ñ¦óù §ÿñîVûú#îñ¦ùøñZô ðü7ú#ù ô)ø øî¥2¥]î1ü%ô ñùñ¤£îï§ô ðü§Tî ©Kû¢ùîû÷ù0HJðK§¤û¢óñùVî © ûù ú9§ó§¤ñùðñNû%úîõ¢÷ù'¥<§9: ñ£ùL¥Gô©ðôLù'¥ù ðLñ2§,$§¤ñù'¥ME¨¥îIð¢óñîúóðN&rôÉúðó ðNùöLôøÉï¢ô ñóîðGGî ©Z÷ô£ô úøÉú#ó§ù §ÿó¤¥GûLú#î1öLù §+$Lùô ú]ô©ñ¦ùú+$Lùô úHOô)ó÷ïLú#ù § ô ûû¢ù ô úlù?§¤ûù)ø óô÷÷¤$Wô õîïñpú#ù'£%ô õ%ó÷óñô ñóîIð ûú#î Iú#ô'¥PE,ûLú#îñ¦ù)øÉñóîð0Núù'£îï§óðQ0G.Gí7ô ð$Wî0©7ü%óú#ùøñ*E¤÷ô)ø; î ©R¥ùô ð§:Dî ©Vûú#ùûôú#ùü1ð%ù §9§: î © ø î%îIú#ü%óð¢ô ñóîð:Süóô÷î :ù ñø¢ G;ô ð%üGóðü%ó ú#ùøÉñE¦û¢î1÷ó ñóø©î >¦ôü¢¥óð¢ó§¤ñú#ôÉñóöLù¡:§¤îLø©ó¦î >¦ùøîðî¥ÿóø:øï÷ñïúô÷ø©îIð%ñ¦ù1ñS§TG ©¦ô)øÉñîú§2ø©î¥ÿùcñî>÷î%ø;Zñ&£¢ù¦)£¢ùù ÷!§ ñ&£¢ùcóð§¦ñóñïLñóîðô)÷úù §¤ûîð§¤ù/§,$§¤ñ¦ù¥U £¢ù'$>üù¡©¦ù ú;ñ£%ù)§îLø©óî >¦ùLø©îIðî¥óø/§¤ñ¦ôúñî ©$ñ&£%ó!§sð¢îIúñ&£>ò£ó÷óûû%óð¢ù§2öLó ñô ÷ô©úùô0 V+W'XUY8Z%ê[è'A$ò£ó÷óû%û%óð¢ù§:$í7îï%ðñ9òSó ðôñï%õî:]\NîL÷ø ô©ðóøÿù úïûLñ¦óîðQ:^ §ô'£¢ô ú(§T:_Gô ñïú,ô÷9üLó¨§ô¡§¤ñù ú9:`2úó¨§ó¨§)¥ÿô ð¢ôLù'¥ÿùðñ!: Jð§¤ñ¦óñïñóîðô÷2ú,ù §¤ûîð§ù : DîLø©óô÷úù §¤û¢îð§¤ù a8bLèTcdeb Hf g©ú¤ï%ûñóîðü1ïÿöLîL÷ø ô ðZò;ó ð¢ôÉñïõ¢î2§¤ï1ú#öLù ð%ïùoù ðh""ï%óðDþ¡ 0 þ¦§¤ïLú§÷f i÷ùcûLú#óðø©ó ûô÷ùNü%ù- Sï0 )îIðüô ð§2÷&f ô©úø£óûù©÷ü1ù?§sò£ó÷óûû%óð¢ù§2ôoù ðLñúô'ið0g'ü1ù?§sûù©ú¦ñ¦ù¡§ gø îðî¥ÿój1ï¢ù §DùÉñüù¡§e¥ÿîïöLù'¥ù ðñS§DüùVûîû%ï÷ô ñóîð ø îð§óüg ú#ôÉõ¢÷ù §F`9ù ñCgö g ðù'¥ùÉð%ñÿôkgñ¨g/ú#ù ÷ô'$ gùVû¢ô ú½ü0f ô ï%ñú#ù §Døúó¨§ù¡§Tû÷ ï§ ÷îLø ô)÷ó§Tgù¡§ ø îð§Tg)øÉï%ñ¦óöLù §Nô ï Dðî¥Gõ%ú#ùÉïD÷ô'£%ô ú9§Nô©÷ó3¥ù ðLñ¨g §9ûôúo÷ù §l¥ÿôñ¨g ú,óôï0/ü gûî§Tg §NôïU¥ÿî¥ÿù©ðñ¦üùZ÷&f g úï%ûñóîIðm`9ù§c÷ô'£%ô ú9§8§ù=¥ÿôðó©¦ù §,ñùðñ¦ø£¢ôj1ï¢ù ô ððQg ùZüù û%ïó!§Gþ¡ ¢ þKô©ïe¥î?¥ù ðñ¦ü%ùG÷ô+§¤ô)ó§îIð½üù?§mû÷ï%óù¡§cù ñ¦öLîðñ§ûú#îõô õ¢÷ù'¥ÿù©ð1ñ§û¢ùÉú#ü1ïLú#ù ú""ï§TjIïQf ô ï0½ù ð¢ö1óú#îð§cü%ù#45560 7Nûú9n §mï%ðù>õú.nöLù ûú9g§ù©ð1ñôñ¦óîð/üïL§,$§¤ñ!n'¥ùÿ!©¦óø©óù÷Qû£ó÷óû1û¢óð½üLù+Lù §,ñóîð/üLù §Nø©ôÉñô¡§¤ñúîû£ù §9:sø©ù ñ¦ôú¤ñóø©÷ù8¥+n ð¢ùKïð%ùÿôðô©÷3$¢§ùÿøÉú#óñó&jLïùÿüLù §oü󩨩¨g ú#ùðñ!§mñ$ûù?§rü%ù úTg©ûîð§ù¡§NóðQ§¤ñóñïñóîIð%ðù÷÷ù¡§/¥ôó§Nô ï§9§ól§îLø©óô÷ù?§rô©ûûîú¦ñ!gù¡§Nô ï0/üL󩨩¨g ú,ù ðñù §cû£ô¡§ù§Nüùÿøú#ó¨§ùÿù ñ9ü%ùGûñ!>¦øÉú#ó§ùÿô §9§îLø ógù §)oÿø©ù ñlgö g ð¢ù'¥ÿù©ð1ñ. 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