A Report on Global Illicit Drugs Markets 1998-2007

A Report on Global Illicit Drugs Markets 1998-2007 Full Report Editors: Peter Reuter (RAND) and Franz Trautmann (Trimbos Institute) http://ec.europa.eu www.trimbos.nl www.rand.org/randeurope • 12474-EC boek.indb 1 31-03-2009 09:57:15 This study has been produced by the Trimbos Institute and RAND with the financial support of the Commission of the European Communities (contract JLS/2007/C4/005). The study does not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of the European Commission, nor is it bound by its conclusions. More information on the European Union and drug policy can be found on the following website: http://ec.europa.eu/justice_home/fsj/drugs/fsj_drugs_intro_en.htm Cataloguing data can be found at the end of this publication. ISBN-13: 978-92-79-11945-3 © European Communities, 2009 • 12474-EC boek.indb 2 31-03-2009 09:57:16 Acknowledgements - A Report on Global Illicit Drugs Markets 1998-2007 Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank all people who contributed to this study. We owe a large debt to the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA) in Lisbon for the relevant input and support we received on many issues. The EMCDDA proved to be a particularly valuable source of information and expertise for our purposes. We want to express special thanks to Paul Griffiths, Brendan Hughes, Rosemary de Sousa and Frank Zobel who provided high quality information, data and advice throughout the project, as well as to their colleagues who contributed to specific sections in this report. We would like to express thanks to all the experts from the countries covered in the individual country reports in the Appendix. They took the time to answer all our questions and provided valuable information on drug problems and policy in their countries. We also would like to thank Jon Caulkins (Heinz School, Carnegie-Mellon University) for his useful comments and Jim Burgdorf (RAND) for his excellent research assistance to the Market Report. Thanks also to Greg Falconer and Philipp-Bastian Brutscher (RAND Europe) for their great assistance with the research for the economic cost report. Special thanks to the experts who made themselves available to review the draft report for their valuable input. The following experts gave input and precious suggestions for streamlining the final manuscript: Ruth Levitt (RAND), Wayne Hall (University of Queensland), Dick Hobbs (London School of Economics), Martin Bouchard (Simon Fraser University), William Rhodes (Abt Associates), Pierre Kopp (University of Paris-1), Michael Farrell (Institute of Psychiatry, London), Alison Ritter (University of New South Wales), and Louisa Degenhardt (University of New South Wales). We also would like to thank Henri Bergeron (Institut d’Etudes Politiques de Paris), Constantijn van Oranje-Nassau (RAND Europe) and Esther Croes (Trimbos Institute) for their helpful comments. Finally, many thanks to the people who gave precious support to get all things done: Toine Ketelaars (Trimbos Institute) for all the thorough literature searches, Yvonne Borghans and Danielle Branderhorst (Trimbos Institute) for their scrupulous text editing and for care and logistic support during the project, Pat O’Hare and Lucy O’Hare for again taking the job of copy editing (reports on drug problems and policy and on methodological challenges) and Andre Ladenius and his team for desk top publishing. The authors are solely responsible for the views in this book. 3 • 12474-EC boek.indb 3 31-03-2009 09:57:16 • 12474-EC boek.indb 4 31-03-2009 09:57:16 Table of contents - A Report on Global Illicit Drugs Markets 1998-2007 Table of contents Foreword 11 Some highlights from the report 13 Key findings 15 Operation of the world drugs market 15 Production 15 Consumption 15 Revenues 16 Drug related problems 17 Policies 17 Policy assessment 19 Conclusions 20 Observations clés 23 Fonctionnement du marché mondial de la drogue 23 Production 23 Consommation 23 Revenus 24 Problèmes liés à la drogue 25 Politiques 25 Évaluation de la politique 28 Conclusions 29 Main Report: Assessing changes in global drug problems, 1998-2007 31 Peter Reuter 1 Introduction and methodology 33 2 Markets and quantities 35 2.1 Operation of the markets 35 2.2 Production 37 2.3 Consumption 40 2.4 Revenues 43 3 Drug related problems 47 3.1 Introduction 47 3.2 Drug related deaths 47 3.3 HIV 48 3.4 Crime 48 3.5 Economic cost estimates 48 4 Policies 51 4.1 Introduction 51 4.2 Prevention 52 4.3 Treatment 52 4.4 Harm reduction 53 4.5 Enforcement 53 5 Policy assessment 57 5.1 Introduction 57 5.2 Unintended consequences 58 5.3 Drug epidemics 59 5.4 Production and trafficking controls 61 5 • 12474-EC boek.indb 5 31-03-2009 09:57:16 Table of contents - A Report on Global Illicit Drugs Markets 1998-2007 5.5 Domestic enforcement 63 5.6 Methodological issues 63 6 Conclusions 65 References 67 Report 1 71 Assessing the operation of the global drug market Peter Reuter Abstract 73 1 Introduction and overview 75 2 Which nations produce and why 77 3 Smuggling 81 4 Immigrants and trafficking in consumer countries 85 5 The organization of the trade 87 5.1 The early U.S. cocaine market 87 5.2 Colombian smuggling organizations 88 5.3 European smuggling 89 5.4 Drug smuggling and legitimate institutions 89 6 Retail markets 91 7 Concluding comments 93 References 95 Report 2 99 Estimating the size of the global drug market: A demand-side approach Beau Kilmer, Rosalie Pacula Abstract 101 1 Introduction 103 2 Methodological issues associated with demand-side estimates 105 3 Cannabis 107 3.1 Calculating total consumption of cannabis 108 3.1.1 Number of users 108 3.1.2 Number of use days 110 3.1.3 Quantity consumed per use day 110 3.1.4 Underreporting 112 3.1.5 Assessing the face validity of these consumption assumptions 112 3.2 Calculating total retail expenditure 112 3.3 Results 114 3.4 Discussion 116 4 Heroin 119 4.1 Prevalence data 119 4.1.1 Quantity consumed 121 4.1.2 Price 121 4.1.3 Purity 121 4.2 Results and discussion 122 5 Cocaine 125 5.1 Europe 125 5.1.1 Number of users 125 5.1.2 Underreporting 126 5.1.3 Heavy versus light users 127 5.1.4 Consumption days for heavy and light users 127 5.1.5 Consumption per use day 127 5.1.6 Price 128 6 • 12474-EC boek.indb 6 31-03-2009 09:57:16 Table of contents - A Report on Global Illicit Drugs Markets 1998-2007 5.2 Cocaine consumption and expenditure in North America 129 5.2.1 United States 129 5.2.2 Canada 130 5.3 Results and discussion 130 6 Amphetamine-type substances 133 6.1 Quantity consumed 134 6.2 Number of users and price 134 6.3 Underreporting 135 6.4 Results 135 6.5 Methamphetamine 138 7 Conclusion 141 Annex 1 Farm-gate and international trade values for cocaine and opiates 143 Annex 2 GDP estimates for 2005 149 Annex 3 Information about other major opiate markets 151 References 153 Report 3 157 Issues in estimating the economic cost of drug abuse in consuming nations Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, Stijn Hoorens, Beau Kilmer, Peter Reuter, Jim Burgdorf, Priscilia Hunt Abstract 159 1 Introduction 161 2 Review of national studies of the cost of drug abuse 163 3 A process for constructing a global estimate of the burden of illicit drug use 167 4 Difficulties in constructing a global estimate: the need for further refinement 171 4.1 Limiting the number of countries considered 171 4.2 A further reduction in the cost elements considered 173 4.2.1 The literature on the association between drug use an non-fatal productivity losses 173 4.2.2 The literature on drugs and crime 173 4.3 Examination of a few indicators for countries with good data collection systems 174 4.3.1 Drug treatment 174 4.3.2 Injection drug use 175 4.3.3 HIV/AIDS 176 4.3.4 Hepatitis C 177 4.3.5 Hepatitis B 177 4.3.6 Problem drug use 177 4.3.7 Drug related deaths 178 4.3.8 Drug related offences 178 5 Determining the unit cost of drug-related harms 179 5.1 Estimates of the lifetime medical cost of HIV infection 179 5.2 Estimates of the lifetime medical cost of hepatitis C 180 5.3 Estimated cost of hepatitis B 181 5.4 The intangible costs of addiction: Euro per QALY 181 5.5 Cost of law enforcement for drug offenses 182 6 Conclusions 185 References 187 7 • 12474-EC boek.indb 7 31-03-2009 09:57:16 Table of contents - A Report on Global Illicit Drugs Markets 1998-2007 Report 4 191 The drugs problem and drug policy, developments between 1998 - 2007 Franz Trautmann, Peter Reuter, André van Gageldonk, Daan van der Gouwe Abstract 193 1 Introduction 195 2 Approach 197 2.1 Selection of countries 197 2.2 Selecting indicators 198 2.3 Data collection by questionnaire 200 3 Discussion of findings 201 3.1 General remarks 201 3.2 Drug problems 202 3.2.1 Supply 202 3.2.2 Consumption (demand) 206 3.2.3 Drug-related harm 209 3.3 Drug policy 212 3.3.1 Supply reduction 215 3.3.2 Demand reduction 219 3.3.3 Harm reduction 223 4 Concluding discussion 227 4.1 Supply and supply reduction 227 4.2 Demand and demand reduction 227 4.3 Harm and harm reduction 228 4.4 General policy issues 229 4.4.1 Harsh on supply – lenient on use 229 4.4.2 Two conflicting long-term aims of drug policy 229 4.4.3 Two driving forces towards harmonisation 229 References 231 Report 5 233 The unintended consequences of drug policies Peter Reuter Abstract 235 1 Introduction 237 2 Definitions 239 3 A taxonomy of mechanisms 241 4 Displacement 245 5 Positive unintended consequences 247 6 Concluding comments 249 References 251 Report 6 253 Methodological challenges André van Gageldonk, Peter Reuter, Franz Trautmann Abstract 255 1 Introduction 257 2 Drug problems 259 2.1 Production 259

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