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Mendocino County Employees' Retirement Association December 31, 2015 Mendocino County Employees’ Retirement Association Investment Measurement Service Quarterly Review The following report was prepared by Callan Associates Inc. ("CAI") using information from sources that include the following: fund trustee(s); fund custodian(s); investment manager(s); CAI computer software; CAI investment manager and fund sponsor database; third party data vendors; and other outside sources as directed by the client. CAI assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or methodologies employed, by any information providers external to CAI. Reasonable care has been taken to assure the accuracy of the CAI database and computer software. Callan does not provide advice regarding, nor shall Callan be responsible for, the purchase, sale, hedge or holding of individual securities, including, without limitation securities of the client (i.e., company stock) or derivatives in the client’s accounts. In preparing the following report, CAI has not reviewed the risks of individual security holdings or the conformity of individual security holdings with the client’s investment policies and guidelines, nor has it assumed any responsibility to do so. Advice pertaining to the merits of individual securities and derivatives should be discussed with a third party securities expert. Copyright 2016 by Callan Associates Inc. Table of Contents December 31, 2015 Capital Market Review 1 Active Management Overview Foreword 9 Domestic Equity Overview 10 International Equity Overview 11 Domestic Fixed-Income Overview 12 Asset Allocation and Performance Foreword 14 Actual vs. Target Asset Allocation 15 Asset Allocation Across Investment Managers 16 Investment Manager Returns 17 Quarterly Total Fund Attribution 21 Total Fund Ranking 25 Total Fund vs. CAI Public Fund Sponsor Database 26 Domestic Equity Domestic Equity Composite 30 Vanguard S&P 500 Index 34 Dodge & Cox Stock 37 Boston Partners 40 Harbor Cap Appreciation 43 Janus Research 46 Fidelity Low Priced Stock 49 Royce Total Return 52 Morgan Stanley 55 Janus Enterprise 58 Prudential Small Cap Value 61 AB US Small Growth 64 RS Investments 67 Managers Inst Micro Cap 70 International Equity International Equity Composite 74 EuroPacific 79 Harbor International 83 Columbia Acorn International 87 Oakmark International 91 Mondrian International 95 Table of Contents December 31, 2015 Domestic Fixed Income Domestic Fixed Income Composite 100 Dodge & Cox Income 103 PIMCO 106 Real Estate RREEF Public 110 RREEF Private 111 Cornerstone Patriot 112 Callan Research/Education 113 Definitions General definitions 117 Disclosures 123 Capital Market Review Capital Market Review ΧΑΛΛΑΝ ΙΝςΕΣΤΜΕΝΤΣ ΙΝΣΤΙΤΥΤΕ ΧΜΡ Πρεϖιεω Φουρτη Θυαρτερ 2015 This “Preview” contains excerpts from the upcoming Χαπιταλ Βροαδ Μαρκετ Θυαρτερλψ Ρετυρνσ Μαρκετ Ρεϖιεω (CMR) newsletter, which will be published at τηε ενδ οφ τηε οντη. U.S. Equity (Russell 3000) 6.27% Non-U.S. Equity (MSCI ACWI ex USA) 3.30% Βαχκ ιν Βλαχκ -0.57% U.S. Fixed (Barclays Aggregate) -1.38% Non-U.S. Fixed (Citi Non-U.S.) Υ.Σ. ΕΘΥΙΤΨ | Λαυρεν Ματηιασ, ΧΦΑ Cash (90-Day T-Bills) 0.03% Sources: Barclays, Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, MSCI, Russell Investment Group Αλτηουγη ιτ ωασ τηε στρονγεστ θυαρτερ οφ τηε ψεαρ, τηε ϕουρνεψ ωασ ϖολατιλε. Οχτοβερ προϖεδ το βε α ωελχοε τυρναρουνδ αφτερ α στυβλινγ τηιρδ θυαρτερ ασ Υ.Σ. ινδιχεσ λανδεδ ονε οφ τηειρ στρον− Ονωαρδσ ανδ Υπωαρδσ gest single months since the inancial crisis ( Σ&Π 500 Ινδεξ: +8.44%). Ψετ α σλοωινγ Χηινεσε εχονοψ, οτηερ ωεακ εεργινγ Υ.Σ. ΦΙΞΕ ΙΝΧΟΜΕ | Κεϖιν Ναγψ αρκετσ, χοοδιτψ πριχε δεχλινεσ, ανδ τηε στρενγτη οφ τηε Υ.Σ. Ψιελδσ ροσε ιν τηε φουρτη θυαρτερ ασ τηε Φεδεραλ Ρεσερϖε ραισεδ δολλαρ λεδ το α ιδδλινγ Νοϖεβερ ανδ δισαπποιντινγ Dεχεβερ. interest rates for the irst time in nearly a decade. The yield curve Dεσπιτε τηισ, τηε Υ.Σ. Φεδεραλ Ρεσερϖε δεεεδ τηε Υ.Σ. εχον− lattened, though the effect on spreads was mixed: investment οψ το βε ιν α στρονγ ενουγη ποσιτιον φορ α ρατε ινχρεασε, χιτινγ grade credit and mortgage backed security (MBS) spreads Χοντινυεδ ον πγ. 2 Χοντινυεδ ον πγ. 4 Τεχη Τακεσ Οϖερ ΝΟΝ−Υ.Σ. ΕΘΥΙΤΨ | Ιρινα Συσηχη Σλιπ ‘ν Σλιδε ΝΟΝ−Υ.Σ. ΦΙΞΕ ΙΝΧΟΜΕ | Κψλε Φεκετε Συργινγ εργερ αχτιϖιτψ, ροβυστ τεχη σεχτορ γαινσ, ανδ στρονγερ than expected corporate proits drove a positive fourth quarter Τηε Χιτι Νον−Υ.Σ. Wορλδ Γοϖερνmεντ Βονδ Ινδεξ δεχλινεδ for non-U.S. markets (ΜΣΧΙ ΑΧWΙ εξ ΥΣΑ Ινδεξ: +3.30%). 1.38% φορ τηε θυαρτερ ανδ 5.54% φορ τηε ψεαρ. Ασ τηε Υ.Σ. δολ− Τοταλ γλοβαλ Μ&Α ϖολυε ιν 2015 συρπασσεδ ∃4.3 τριλλιον, lar continued to appreciate, the Index’s hedged equivalent βρεακινγ τηε πρεϖιουσ ρεχορδ σετ ιν 2007. Χοπανιεσ ωερε ινχηεδ αηεαδ 0.58% φορ τηε θυαρτερ ανδ 1.55% φορ τηε ψεαρ. Τηε περσυαδεδ το σιγν δεαλσ βψ τηε αϖαιλαβιλιτψ οφ χηεαπ δεβτ ανδ ψιελδ ον 10−ψεαρ Γεραν βυνδσ ωασ ϖολατιλε τηρουγηουτ 2015: the desire to stay competitive and eficient in a slow-growth ιτ σταρτεδ οφφ τηε ψεαρ ατ 0.54%, σανκ το 0.18% ον Μαρχη 31, ενϖιρονεντ. Τηε στρενγτηενινγ δολλαρ βοοστεδ ρετυρνσ οφ ιντερ− χλιβεδ το 0.76% ον ϑυνε 30, ανδ εϖεντυαλλψ ενδεδ ατ 0.63%. national export-oriented companies. Αδδινγ το τηε νοισε οφ 2015, Γεραν δεβτ ωιτη ατυριτιεσ ασ φαρ ουτ ασ σεϖεν ψεαρσ προϖιδεδ νεγατιϖε ψιελδσ, ινδιχατινγ As in the U.S., growth ( ΜΣΧΙ ΑΧWΙ εξ ΥΣΑ Γροωτη: +5.61%) βονδ ινϖεστορσ ωουλδ ηαϖε το παψ το οων βεφορε αδϕυστινγ φορ fared better than value (ΜΣΧΙ ΑΧWΙ εξ ΥΣΑ ςαλυε: +2.17%). Χοντινυεδ ον πγ. 3 Χοντινυεδ ον πγ. 5 Κνοωλεδγε. Εξπεριενχε. Ιντεγριτψ. Υ.Σ. Εθυιτψ: Βαχκ ιν Βλαχκ Θυαρτερλψ Περφορmανχε οφ Σελεχτ Σεχτορσ Χοντινυεδ φρο πγ. 1 Russell 1000 Russell 2000 9.76% improved labor market conditions and subdued inlation. Third- 8.72% 8.77% 5.88% θυαρτερ Υ.Σ. ΓDΠ γροωτη οφ 2.0% λοοκεδ στρονγ χοπαρεδ το 4.87% other developed countries, but fell below predictions (2.1%)and far short of the second quarter (3.9%). The price of oil continued -2.65% -0.61% to decline, but consumer conidence remained above average ανδ προϖιδεδ σοε ταιλωινδ το τηε αρκετ. -10.60% Γροωτη χοντινυεδ το βυιλδ ιτσ λεαδ ον ϖαλυε ιν τηε φουρτη θυαρ− Health Care Technology Consumer Energy ter (Ρυσσελλ 1000 Γροωτη Ινδεξ: +7.31% ανδ Ρυσσελλ 1000 Discretionary ςαλυε Ινδεξ: +5.64%); οϖερ τηε ψεαρ τηε διφφερενχε ωασ προ− Source: Russell Investment Group found (+5.66% vs. -3.83%, respectively). All U.S. equity indi− ces posted positive results, but larger proved better Ρυσσελλ( Μιδχαπ Ινδεξ: +3.62%, Ρυσσελλ 2000 Ινδεξ: +3.59%, and Ρυσσελλ Μιχροχαπ Ινδεξ: +3.74%). Τηε Ρυσσελλ Τοπ 50 Ινδεξ Ρολλινγ Ονε−Ψεαρ Ρελατιϖε Ρετυρνσ (vs. Russell 1000) led the way gaining 9.34%. Russell 1000 Growth Russell 1000 Value Russell 1000 An extremely narrow market led to wide dispersion in large 30% χαπ σεχτορ περφορανχε. Ενεργψ αδϖανχεδ ϕυστ 20 βπσ, ωηιλε Ματεριαλσ, Ινφορατιον Τεχηνολογψ, ανδ Ηεαλτη Χαρε νεαρλψ 20% ρεαχηεδ δουβλε διγιτσ. Σαλλ χαπ σαω σιιλαρ ρεσυλτσΕνεργψ 10% trailed signiicantly while only Health Care produced a strong ποσιτιϖε ρεσυλτ. Χοοδιτψ πριχε δεχλινεσ ανδ σλοω γλοβαλ γροωτη 0% were major factors behind Energy’s stumble. Biotech companies -10% λεδ σαλλ χαπ Ηεαλτη Χαρε. Αχτιϖε αναγερσ στρυγγλεδ αγαιν, especially in large cap where the S&P 500 Index total annual -20% return (with dividends) would have been negative without reeth στοχκσ: Ααζον, Μιχροσοφτ, ανδ ΓΕ. Ινϖεστορσ πρεφερρεδ τηε -30% 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 σαφετψ οφ τηεσε ανδ οτηερ λαργε χαπ χοπανιεσ. Εθυιτψ ϖολατιλιτψ Source: Russell Investment Group ασ εασυρεδ βψ τηε ςΙΞ ινχρεασεδ δυρινγ τηε θυαρτερ βυτ ενδεδ the year below average. Assets continued to low into passive φυνδσ ανδ ΕΤΦσ, φυρτηερ χηαλλενγινγ αχτιϖε αναγερσ. Τηε Υ.Σ. εθυιτψ αρκετ ωασ γενερουσ ιν τηε φουρτη θυαρτερ, βυτ φορ τηε φυλλ ψεαρ φουρ στοχκσ ωερε δοων φορ εϖερψ τηρεε τηατ rose (in the S&P 500). Despite this, broad market valuations ρεαιν αβοϖε αϖεραγε, λεαδινγ το θυεστιοναβλε προσπεχτσ ασ ωε εντερ 2016. 2 Νον−Υ.Σ. Εθυιτψ: Τεχη Τακεσ Οϖερ Ρολλινγ Ονε−Ψεαρ Ρελατιϖε Ρετυρνσ Χοντινυεδ φρο πγ. 1 (vs. MSCI World ex USA, USD hedged) Τηε ΜΣΧΙ Εεργινγ Μαρκετσ Ινδεξ MSCI Pacific MSCI Europe MSCI World ex USA (+0.73%) delivered paltry 40% ρετυρνσ ιν χοπαρισον το ιτσ δεϖελοπεδ αρκετ χουντερπαρτ τηε 30% ΜΣΧΙ Wορλδ εξ ΥΣΑ Ινδεξ (+3.91%). Small cap outpaced large 20% cap once again due to fewer Energy holdings ( ΜΣΧΙ ΑΧWΙ εξ 10% ΥΣΑ Σαλλ Χαπ Ινδεξ: +5.28%). Αονγ σεχτορσ, Ινφορατιον 0% Technology (+8.40%) was the darling, while Industrials (+4.67%) -10% and Consumer Discretionary (+4.59%) helped with high M&A -20% activity. Energy (-0.43%) and Materials (+0.36%) have now -30% λαγγεδ φορ τωο στραιγητ θυαρτερσ. Χρυδε οιλ ενδεδ τηε ψεαρ βελοω -40% $40 per barrel, down 17.85% for the quarter, due to crude’s 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 unrelenting excess of supply over global demand. Source: MSCI on Industrials and Materials. Australia thrived (+9.96%) on a European stocks were up for the irst two months of the quar− strong inancial sector; the largest Aussie banks raised home- ter due to investor expectations of ampliied European Central λοαν ιντερεστ ρατεσ δυρινγ τηε φουρτη θυαρτερ. Bank (ECB) stimulus measures. Investors were disappointed ιν Dεχεβερ ωηεν τηε χεντραλ βανκ χυτσ ιτσ δεποσιτ ρατε ανδ Εεργινγ αρκετ χουντριεσ προδυχεδ α σπεχτρυ οφ ρετυρνσ, extended its bond-buying program by six months. Returns −fal but closed slightly ahead (+0.73%). Information Technology τερεδ, ψετ τηε ΜΣΧΙ Ευροπε Ινδεξ ended the quarter up 2.49%. (+6.46%) buoyed returns.
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