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Analysis of Operational Changes of Tarbela Reservoir to Improve the Water Supply, Hydropower Generation, and Flood Control Objectives

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Analysis of Operational Changes of Tarbela Reservoir to Improve the Water Supply, Hydropower Generation, and Flood Control Objectives sustainability Article Analysis of Operational Changes of Tarbela Reservoir to Improve the Water Supply, Hydropower Generation, and Flood Control Objectives Ahmed Rafique 1,*, Steven Burian 1, Daniyal Hassan 1 and Rakhshinda Bano 2 1 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA; [email protected] (S.B.); [email protected] (D.H.) 2 U.S.-Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies in Water, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro City, Sindh 76062, Pakistan; [email protected] * Correspondence: ahmed.rafi[email protected] Received: 30 August 2020; Accepted: 14 September 2020; Published: 22 September 2020 Abstract: In this study, a model was created with the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) System and used to explore the benefits of altering the operations of Tarbela Dam in terms of reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (RRV) for the three objectives of irrigation supply, hydropower generation, and flood control. Sensitivity analysis and logical reasoning with operators identified a feasible operational rule curve for testing using the integrated performance analysis. The reservoir performance for the altered operations was compared to the baseline performance following current operations for both historical and projected future climate and water demand conditions. Key simulation results show that the altered operations strategy tested under historical climate and water demand conditions would increase RRV by 17%, 67%, and 7%, respectively, for the water supply objective and 34%, 346%, and 22%, respectively, for hydropower generation. For projected future conditions, the proposed operations strategy would increase RRV by 7%, 219%, and 11%, respectively, for water supply and 19%, 136%, and 13% for hydropower generation. Synthesis of the results suggests significant benefits for reliability and resilience of water supply and hydropower are possible with slight operational adjustments. Overall, the integrated performance analysis supports the need to develop an optimized operations rule for Tarbela to adapt to projected climate and demand scenarios. Keywords: reservoir management; reservoir performance; water management modeling; climate change; water resources planning 1. Introduction Water management has become more complex with human population growth; the emergence of broader performance objectives; and the increase in uncertainty of water availability, energy demand, and flood risk [1–3]. In South Asia, Pakistan is facing grave challenges of increasing population, intensifying precipitation extremes, and broadened expectations for water system performance [4,5]. Once a water-abundant country, Pakistan is now a water-stressed country and is estimated to become water-scarce by 2025, potentially threatening the hydropower and agriculture sector [6,7]. Additionally, floods and droughts pose a significant threat to agriculture and hydropower generation [8,9]. Given Pakistan’s water challenges, large multi-purpose reservoirs such as Tarbela Reservoir constitute a vital component of the country’s water resource infrastructure [10,11]. The Tarbela Reservoir on the Indus River serves multiple purposes, most importantly irrigation supply, hydropower generation, and flood control [12]. The post-Tarbela period has yielded significant economic Sustainability 2020, 12, 7822; doi:10.3390/su12187822 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 19 economic benefits for Pakistan by increasing the irrigation command area, enhancing the hydropower capacity, and attenuating flood peaks during the flood season [13]. Although Tarbela Reservoir was designed to serve multiple purposes, the current operations and management practices are biased towards a solitary objective of meeting irrigation supply [14]. SustainabilityThis implies2020 that, 12, 7822hydropower generation and flood control objectives are neglected in the current2 of 18 operations compromising the potential broader performance. According to the Pakistan Water & Power Development Authority (WAPDA), 70% of water discharge is through the spillways benefits(uncontrolled for Pakistan releases), by increasingwhich do thenot irrigationgenerate commandhydropower area, [14]. enhancing This situation the hydropower is alarming capacity, as the andenergy attenuating needs of floodPakistan peaks are during increasing the flood by 7.9% season annually [13]. (currently, Tarbela contributes to 30% of the country’sAlthough hydropower). Tarbela Reservoir Similarly, was designedthese uncont to serverolled multiple releases purposes, (which occur the currentwhen flow operations in the andIndus management is greater than practices 11,326 arem3/s) biased havetowards resulted ain solitary 13 flood objective events causing of meeting significant irrigation damage supply to [ 14the]. Thisagriculture implies sector. that hydropower generation and flood control objectives are neglected in the current operationsTo meet compromising its objectives, the Tarbela potential Reservoir broader is op performance.erated following According a rule tocurve the that Pakistan defines Water the &desired Power water Development surface elevation Authority (and (WAPDA), thus stored 70% water of water volume) discharge of the isreservoir through at thea given spillways time (uncontrolled(Figure 1). Based releases), upon the which operations, do not the generate rule curv hydropowere has three characteristic [14]. This situation components: is alarming (i) falling as thelimb energy (September–May), needs of Pakistan (ii) minimum are increasing level byperiod 7.9% (May–June), annually (currently, and (iii) Tarbelarising limb contributes (July–August). to 30% ofReleases the country’s from the hydropower). reservoir as depicted Similarly, by these the uncontrolledfalling limb and releases minimum (which level occur period when are flow based in theon 3 Indusirrigation is greater demands, than also 11,326 known m / s)as haveKirmani resulted demands in 13 in flood Pakistan, events as causing shown in significant Figure 2 [15]. damage However, to the agriculturethis irrigation sector. demand pattern and the corresponding release pattern from the rule curve present a misleadingTo meet case its objectives,of irrigation Tarbela demands Reservoir being isthe operated highest followingfor June–August. a rule curve Recent that studies defines have the desiredshown waterthat the surface current elevation and future (and crop thus water stored demand water volume) pattern, of represented the reservoir by at crop a given evapotranspiration time (Figure1). Based(ETo), is upon higher the in operations, the months the of ruleApril–June curve has(Tab threele 1) [16,17]. characteristic Moreover, components: the available (i) fallinghead in limb the (September–May),minimum level period (ii) minimum and the risi levelng periodlimb does (May–June), not correspond and (iii) to rising the high limb hydropower (July–August). demand Releases for fromthose themonths. reservoir Figure as 2 depicted shows that by thethe fallinghydropower limb and demand minimum is highest level for period the months are based of June–August, on irrigation demands,but the rule also curve known maintains as Kirmani a low demandsreservoir inlevel Pakistan, in June as and shown July, incompromising Figure2[ 15]. its However, hydropower this irrigationgeneration. demand pattern and the corresponding release pattern from the rule curve present a misleadingPart of case the ofproblem irrigation is demandsthe reliance being of theTarbel highesta Reservoir for June–August. operational Recent planning studies on have the shownsingle thatcriterion the current of irrigation and future supply crop reliability. water demand The use pattern, of a single represented performance by crop criterion evapotranspiration (typically reliability (ETo), isof higherirrigation in thesupply) months is common of April–June for reservoir (Table1 )[operations16,17]. Moreover, around the the world available but is head known in the to be minimum limited levelin describing period and the the strengths rising limb and does weaknesses not correspond of th toe reservoir the high hydropower operations demand[18,19]. Improvement for those months. in Figureoperational2 shows performance that the hydropower is likely feasible demand if decision is highests can for consider the months multiple of June–August, criteria, and in but particular, the rule curvereliability, maintains resilience, a low and reservoir vulnerability level in (RRV) June and [20,21]. July, compromising its hydropower generation. 480 460 440 420 (m) 400 380 360 Reservoir Water Surface amsl Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Months Figure 1. CurrentCurrent rule curve for the Tarbela Reservoir on a daily time scale. Table 1. Monthly crop evapotranspiration (ETo) in mm for Northern Pakistan. Scenario Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Current 68 84 130 173 218 215 194 177 155 124 83 64 1 ◦C Rise 69 85 131 175 219 216 197 178 156 126 84 65 2 ◦C Rise 71 87 133 178 224 221 200 182 160 129 86 67 3 ◦C Rise 76 93 141 186 232 229 207 189 166 134 90 72 Sustainability 2020, 12, 7822 3 of 18 Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 19 7,000 3,000 6,000 2,500 5,000 /s) 2,000 3 4,000 1,500 3,000 1,000 Flow (m 2,000 1,000 500 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (GWh) Hydropower Demand Irrigation Demand (m3/s) Hydropower Demand (GWh) Indus River Inflow (m3/s) Figure 2. Mean monthly inflows, inflows, irrigation,
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